European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

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European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Brendan on Tue 09 Oct 2018, 6:33 pm

So going off of previous years there is generally a fairly even spread of teams per league with the French generally the more dominate. Even last year with all the Pro14 talk they still had 4.

So pick who you think the 8 quarter finalists will be. We have had 6-8 games to see form coming in it.

There is a catch though. 3 must be T14 and 2 must be from each of the Prem and Pro14. The last team is up you.

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Artful_Dodger on Tue 09 Oct 2018, 6:42 pm


Top14
Montpellier and Racing group winners
Toulon runners up (Newcastle are really struggling. Edinburgh should have a good go in this group though as Toulon aren't exceptional right now either)

Pro 14
Leinster group winners
Munster and Scarlets runners up

Premiership
Exeter and Saracens group winners

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Brendan on Tue 09 Oct 2018, 9:55 pm

Leinster, Wasps
Exeter
Sarries,
Racing, Scarlets
Montpellier, Toulon

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Artful_Dodger on Tue 09 Oct 2018, 10:11 pm

Brendan wrote:Leinster, Wasps
Exeter
Sarries,
Racing, Scarlets
Montpellier, Toulon

Wasps are in dire form. I personally can't see it. Especially when Munster (In Exeter's group) can look forward to Castres who have never give a flying about the HC/CC.

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Brendan on Tue 09 Oct 2018, 10:22 pm

Artful_Dodger wrote:
Brendan wrote:Leinster, Wasps
Exeter
Sarries,
Racing, Scarlets
Montpellier, Toulon

Wasps are in dire form.  I personally can't see it.  Especially when Munster (In Exeter's group) can look forward to Castres who have never give a flying about the HC/CC.

I picked Wasps as I think they will get BPs and not impressed with Bath. Not sure Toulouse will be up to much.  I think Gloucester, Munster, Castre will take to many points off each other.

It was a toss between Munster, Wasps and Glasgow

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by mikey_dragon on Tue 09 Oct 2018, 11:59 pm

People rating Racing above Scarlets? Not sure why, although it is a good time to play them with the injuries to key players which they have suffered, not to mention the suspensions.

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Cyril on Wed 10 Oct 2018, 12:38 am

Why should we have to pick a certain number per league? I only see Leinster as being an option from the O’14. Surely we should just be able to select who we really think will progress?

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by LondonTiger on Wed 10 Oct 2018, 7:35 am

Cyril wrote:Why should we have to pick a certain number per league? I only see Leinster as being an option from the O’14. Surely we should just be able to select who we really think will progress?

Whereas I am struggling to find a third french side, and I am sure plenty feel 2 is too many from the GP.

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Cyril on Wed 10 Oct 2018, 8:04 am

I think we’re looking at:
Leinster
Wasps
Exeter
Gloucester
Saracens
Racing
Montpellier
Toulon

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by LondonTiger on Wed 10 Oct 2018, 9:21 am

Pool 1
Leinster to win the pool with 5 or 6 wins. Bath and Toulouse to offer little thus Wasps as runners up with 3/4 wins.


Pool 2
All teams capable of taking points from each other. Exeter have not delivered in Europe yet but may well top this group with 4 wins. Runners up probably Munster but maybe on just 3 wins.

Pool 3
Saracens to top the group. Glasgow second and quite possibly the best runner up. Lyon & Cardiff no-hopers.

Pool 4
Racing and Scarlets to contest top spot. Leicester and Ulster to look to be strong at home.

Pool 5
Montpelier should top the group. Falcons have a tough start and if they lose both, and if domestic wins are still rare could have given up on this by December and allowing Edinburgh to pip Toulon for second.


Thus my predicted Qualifiers:

Leinster
Exeter
Saracens
Racing
Montpelier

Wasps
Glasgow
Scarlets
Munster*
Edinburgh*




*Unlucky runners up

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Brendan on Wed 10 Oct 2018, 10:31 am

Cyril wrote:Why should we have to pick a certain number per league? I only see Leinster as being an option from the O’14. Surely we should just be able to select who we really think will progress?

The reason for certain number per league is it means that you are more likely to look at it through more neutral eyes. Barring anomalies we generally have about 2-3 from the Pro14 & Prem while 3 from France (usually Clearmont and Toulon and another). In 50:50 we always go with our leagues teams so end up with people picking 4 from their leagues as certain to make it with a 5th team with an outside chance. And it rarely happens.

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Brendan on Wed 10 Oct 2018, 10:34 am

mikey_dragon wrote:People rating Racing above Scarlets? Not sure why, although it is a good time to play them with the injuries to key players which they have suffered, not to mention the suspensions.  

Scarlets have lost Bernie who was a turnover machine and Baracaly is another loss. Racing have strengthened and were the only team to be able to front up to Leinster and survive better than most.

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Artful_Dodger on Wed 10 Oct 2018, 3:01 pm

From oddschecker, to win the Champions Cup outright:

Leinster 2-1
Saracens 3-1
Montpellier 7-1
Exeter 8-1
Munster 12-1
Racing 12-1
Scarlets 16-1
Toulon 16-1
Wasps 33-1
Glasgow 40-1
Toulouse 40-1
Leicester 40-1
Gloucester 66-1
Castres 66-1
Lyon 75-1
Bath 75-1
Edinburgh 100-1
Cardiff 100-1
Ulster 125-1
Newcastle 125-1

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by BamBam on Wed 10 Oct 2018, 4:15 pm

Bookies aren't usually far off, and that makes a lot of sense

Leinster / Sarries / Montpellier look to have the "easiest" routes through the group, I would expect Exeter and Racing to be the other two group winners. After that, Munster / Scarlets / Toulon are probably the best on paper, with Wasps / Glasgow having the easier group route to a runners up spot

Leinster
Exeter
Saracens
Racing
Montpellier

Munster
Scarlets
Glasgow

That would be my guess

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Pot Hale on Wed 10 Oct 2018, 7:15 pm

Artful_Dodger wrote:From oddschecker, to win the Champions Cup outright:

Leinster 2-1
Saracens 3-1
Montpellier 7-1
Exeter 8-1
Munster 12-1
Racing 12-1
Scarlets 16-1
Toulon 16-1
Wasps 33-1
Glasgow 40-1
Toulouse 40-1
Leicester 40-1
Gloucester 66-1
Castres 66-1
Lyon 75-1
Bath 75-1
Edinburgh 100-1
Cardiff 100-1
Ulster 125-1
Newcastle 125-1

Wonder what the knockout stage odds look like.
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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Artful_Dodger on Wed 10 Oct 2018, 8:16 pm

Pot Hale wrote:
Artful_Dodger wrote:From oddschecker, to win the Champions Cup outright:

Leinster 2-1
Saracens 3-1
Montpellier 7-1
Exeter 8-1
Munster 12-1
Racing 12-1
Scarlets 16-1
Toulon 16-1
Wasps 33-1
Glasgow 40-1
Toulouse 40-1
Leicester 40-1
Gloucester 66-1
Castres 66-1
Lyon 75-1
Bath 75-1
Edinburgh 100-1
Cardiff 100-1
Ulster 125-1
Newcastle 125-1

Wonder what the knockout stage odds look like.

Group winner odds below. Don't see any odds on making the knockouts which is obviously a bit different. Individual bookies will give you them but oddschecker which pulls data from all bookies doesn't seem to have.

Pool 1
Leinster 1/3
Toulouse 8/1
Wasps 8/1
Bath 33/1

Pool 2
Exeter evens
Munster 2/1
Gloucester 14/1
Castres 16/1

Pool 3
Saracens 1/5
Glasgow 10/1
Cardiff 28/1
Lyon 33/1

Pool 4
Racing 1.5/1
Scarlets 2/1
Leicester 5/1
Ulster 16/1

Pool 5
Montpellier evens
Toulon 2.5/1
Edinburgh 14/1
Newcastle 33/1

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by des on Thu 11 Oct 2018, 1:29 pm

Does anyone know when Toulon's 5 point penalty is to be applied? Do they still have a period of grace where they can comply with the request and the penalty is annulled? I see that it was recently reduced from 3 years to 1 on appeal but there's nothing suggesting it won't still be applied.

I'm assuming their odds don't include it yet.

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Artful_Dodger on Thu 11 Oct 2018, 1:31 pm

des wrote:Does anyone know when Toulon's 5 point penalty is to be applied? Do they still have a period of grace where they can comply with the request and the penalty is annulled?  I see that it was recently reduced from 3 years to 1 on appeal but there's nothing suggesting it won't still be applied.

I'm assuming their odds don't include it yet.

I think it's suspended for 3 years (presumably now 1 year) meaning it won't be applied if they behave themselves. That's my understanding but could be wrong.

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by des on Thu 11 Oct 2018, 1:39 pm

Cheers, I see that since I bothered looking.

I don't remember seeing it was suspended when it was originally made. The fact Mourad made a petulant comment about not paying the fine or apologising made me think there was no point in suspending it.

Edinburgh's a very LGBT friendly place so hopefully that'll tip him over the edge when they come to visit.

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by rodders on Thu 11 Oct 2018, 1:41 pm

Artful_Dodger wrote:From oddschecker, to win the Champions Cup outright:

Leinster 2-1
Saracens 3-1
Montpellier 7-1
Exeter 8-1
Munster 12-1
Racing 12-1
Scarlets 16-1
Toulon 16-1
Wasps 33-1
Glasgow 40-1
Toulouse 40-1
Leicester 40-1
Gloucester 66-1
Castres 66-1
Lyon 75-1
Bath 75-1
Edinburgh 100-1
Cardiff 100-1
Ulster 125-1
Newcastle 125-1

Racing look a decent bet at 12-1. I do think Leinster will do it again.
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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by bsando on Thu 11 Oct 2018, 2:17 pm

Pool 1 - Leinster, Toulouse

Pool 2 - Exeter

Pool 3 - Saracens, Glasgow

Pool 4 - Racing 92, Scarlets

Pool 5 - Montpellier

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by TJ on Thu 11 Oct 2018, 11:44 pm

*Unlucky runners up


The life of an Edinburgh Fan

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by TJ on Thu 11 Oct 2018, 11:48 pm

Glasgow will be very disappointed not to get to the quarter finals.  I don't think they will get much further tho.  Edinburgh would be surprised if they did get to the Qs,

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Eejit on Fri 12 Oct 2018, 11:56 am

TJ wrote:Glasgow will be very disappointed not to get to the quarter finals.  I don't think they will get much further tho.  Edinburgh would be surprised if they did get to the Qs,

I'd go so far as saying Rennie's future at Glasgow depends on doing one of reaching a European quarter final or a Pro14 Final.

For me:
1- Leinster
2- Exeter, Munster
3- Saracens, Glasgow
4- Scarlets, Racing
5- Montpellier The Luvvies because what's an accumulator without a bit of mystery (and a crap castle).

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by LondonTiger on Mon 15 Oct 2018, 10:44 am

LondonTiger wrote:Pool 1
Leinster to win the pool with 5 or 6 wins. Bath and Toulouse to offer little thus Wasps as runners up with 3/4 wins.


Pool 2
All teams capable of taking points from each other. Exeter have not delivered in Europe yet but may well top this group with 4 wins. Runners up probably Munster but maybe on just 3 wins.

Pool 3
Saracens to top the group. Glasgow second and quite possibly the best runner up. Lyon & Cardiff no-hopers.

Pool 4
Racing and Scarlets to contest top spot. Leicester and Ulster to look to be strong at home.

Pool 5
Montpelier should top the group. Falcons have a tough start and if they lose both, and if domestic wins are still rare could have given up on this by December and allowing Edinburgh to pip Toulon for second.


Thus my predicted Qualifiers:

Leinster
Exeter
Saracens
Racing
Montpelier

Wasps
Glasgow
Scarlets
Munster*
Edinburgh*




*Unlucky runners up


I still feel Wasps will be better than Bath and Toulouse, but do not now feel they will get one of the best runner up spots. 

Exeter and Munster both to qualify with the match at Thomond deciding who wins the group is the only change I would make after Round 1.

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Brendan on Mon 15 Oct 2018, 11:53 am

T14
Won 3 out of 6 (2 away 1 home)

Prem
Won 3 drew 1 out of 7 (2 away 1 home)

Pro14
Won 3 drew 1 out of 7 (1 away 2 home)

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by lostinwales on Mon 15 Oct 2018, 12:01 pm

Brendan wrote:T14
Won 3 out of 6 (2 away 1 home)

Prem
Won 3 drew 1 out of 7 (2 away 1 home)

Pro14
Won 3 drew 1 out of 7 (1 away 2 home)

Perfect split

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Brendan on Mon 15 Oct 2018, 4:25 pm

lostinwales wrote:
Brendan wrote:T14
Won 3 out of 6 (2 away 1 home)

Prem
Won 3 drew 1 out of 7 (2 away 1 home)

Pro14
Won 3 drew 1 out of 7 (1 away 2 home)

Perfect split

Yeah, but next week should see a few more interesting battles.

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Pot Hale on Mon 15 Oct 2018, 5:33 pm

Revised odds from Paddy Power

Leinster 6/4
Saracens 10/3
Montpellier 15/2
Munster 8/1
Racing 92 9/1
Exeter Chiefs 12/1
Scarlets 33/1
Toulouse 33/1
Wasps 50/1
Glasgow Warriors 66/1
Gloucester 66/1
Castres 66/1
Edinburgh 66/1
Toulon 66/1
Newcastle 66/1
Cardiff Blues 66/1
Ulster 100/1
Leicester 100/1
Bath 150/1
Lyon OU 200/1
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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Pot Hale on Mon 15 Oct 2018, 5:35 pm

Toulon at 66/1
Ulster 100/1

Would be worth a fiver for the fun of it.
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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

Post by Artful_Dodger on Mon 15 Oct 2018, 6:35 pm

Pot Hale wrote:Toulon at 66/1
Ulster 100/1

Would be worth a fiver for the fun of it.  

Might stick a fiver on Scarlets now at 33/1 definitely not Toulon or Ulster though.

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Re: European Champions Cup expected Quarter Finalists

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