Some Domestic- and Foreign-born Player & Coach Stats - Nov/Dec 2018

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Some Domestic- and Foreign-born Player & Coach Stats - Nov/Dec 2018

Post by Pot Hale on Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:23 am

First topic message reminder :

Just going to post a few graphics based on some player research I did across teams in Six Nations and Japan.  I haven't included any data on French or Japanese academy players as they're not easily available.

The figures are birth-countries only.  So a player may have moved when they were 4, 14 or 24.  It also includes players whose parents are from another country, has different nationality grandparents, etc.  

It includes players from PRO14, Premiership, Top 14, PROD2, Japan Top League.












Last edited by Pot Hale on Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:22 pm; edited 10 times in total
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Re: Some Domestic- and Foreign-born Player & Coach Stats - Nov/Dec 2018

Post by Rugby Fan on Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:41 am

Taylorman wrote:..Rennies a better coach...
I think many would agree with you. It's probably a major reason he was under consideration. What probably tipped the balance for the WRU is that Pivac knows the Welsh set-up. Also, he has a working relationship with Stephen Jones, and the WRU would like him to develop. I do think the Glasgow vs Scarlets semi-final result played a part too, even though a one-off game probably shouldn't. Another poster earlier in this thread said that Rennie got his pacing wrong last season, becaise he wasn't familiar with how a season pans out (the to-and-fro of domestic games and Europe, coupled with losing players to international duty). The same poster thinks Rennie has been more adept at squad rotation, so we'll see if Glasgow can maintain standards deeper into the season.

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Re: Some Domestic- and Foreign-born Player & Coach Stats - Nov/Dec 2018

Post by Brendan on Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:16 am

Taylorman wrote:
Rugby Fan wrote:Wales considered Rennie by all accounts. It probably didn't help his cause much when Pivac's Scarlets handily beat Rennie's Glasgow in last season's Pro14 semi-final.

One of the main advantage's Pivac has is he worked with a lot of the Welsh squad anyway. The disadvantage is that he will almost certainly take Stephen Jones with him, which means the strongest Welsh team has to undergo a  management reboot (Jones wasn't named as the new Scarlets coach, so it is assumed he'll go into the national set-up).

Rennie may well get a shot at a national team in the future but you'd imagine he'll need to show a bit more form to convince some unions. Todd Blackadder was well-regarded when he came over but his stint at Bath has not been impressive.

Didnt an understrength glasgow just beat scarlets?  And arent glasgow top of the table os is that justva mirage?

My point being that Rennie has a far better pedigree than Pivac and his Super form is essential when considering a coachibg position. Pivac wouldnt winna post over Rennie here so for part of that equation we have already done some of the spade work for you. Most of it actually.

Only problem with this logic is it looks at the two coaches as they were not as they are.  By your logic if it came down to picking Cotter or Schmidt you'd pick Cotter for a Super Rugby role because back in NZ sure Schmidt was just an assistant.

Would you take Blackadder over Pivac for a NZ coaching role.  Rennie took a strong Glasgow team and failed in both competitions. He won the Conference yet lost at home in a semi final after a weeks rest.  He also fell apart in the Euros and had no idea how to play in it.  I expect Glasgow to make the quarters this year but to show again that he hasn't worked out how to beat the better teams. Munster, Scarlets and Leinster are all head of Glasgow in terms of smarts and that's coaching.

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Re: Some Domestic- and Foreign-born Player & Coach Stats - Nov/Dec 2018

Post by robbo277 on Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:45 pm

The real question for me that comes out of these graphs is: what is the correct size of a player pool?

Looking at the first graph (and for simplicity ignoring English players overseas, ignoring that some England players will be born overseas and that some overseas born players will play for England) England have 461 players to pick from in a league of 690 - 67% of the league.

Ireland (as an example, and Wales return similar numbers) have 202 players to pick from in a league of 255 - 79%.

Now, Ireland are obviously doing better than England at current. But a home-born quota (as is sometimes argued, although more strongly in Johnson's era) would do England no good. To match Ireland's 79%, we would need to replace 84 foreign players with English players. Would the 462nd best England player really add that much to Eddie's squad? Meanwhile, the league quality would suffer, as if the 462nd best England player was better than the player he was replacing, he'd already be in the Premiership squad ahead of a more expensive foreign player.

The issue is, we have ~30 current international players. That's 30 players currently playing the majority of international matches, mixing it against the best players in the World in 11 elite games a year. By consistently playing in this environment, your international players become better players.

If we accept 30 as your number of current international players, Ireland have 12% of their top level domestic players as regular Ireland internationals. For England, this percentage is 4%.

England have more potential Internationals, larger population, more Premiership places, more European places, but a lot of these players are "unfinished". For instance, how good could Cipriani have been if he'd come through at a club with Wilkinson? If Cipriani with all his talent could have regularly benefitted from the knowledge and experience of Wilkinson's 90-something caps, 1200 points and 2 Lions tours?

For me, England have too many top level clubs. Even a reduction of 1/3 would help. 461 is far more players than we could ever consider needing. 200+ foreign players is also too many. We could happily cut that number. Drop the filler and only keep the quality players who improve the squads.

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Re: Some Domestic- and Foreign-born Player & Coach Stats - Nov/Dec 2018

Post by Taylorman on Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:20 pm

Brendan wrote:
Taylorman wrote:
Rugby Fan wrote:Wales considered Rennie by all accounts. It probably didn't help his cause much when Pivac's Scarlets handily beat Rennie's Glasgow in last season's Pro14 semi-final.

One of the main advantage's Pivac has is he worked with a lot of the Welsh squad anyway. The disadvantage is that he will almost certainly take Stephen Jones with him, which means the strongest Welsh team has to undergo a  management reboot (Jones wasn't named as the new Scarlets coach, so it is assumed he'll go into the national set-up).

Rennie may well get a shot at a national team in the future but you'd imagine he'll need to show a bit more form to convince some unions. Todd Blackadder was well-regarded when he came over but his stint at Bath has not been impressive.

Didnt an understrength glasgow just beat scarlets?  And arent glasgow top of the table os is that justva mirage?

My point being that Rennie has a far better pedigree than Pivac and his Super form is essential when considering a coachibg position. Pivac wouldnt winna post over Rennie here so for part of that equation we have already done some of the spade work for you. Most of it actually.

Only problem with this logic is it looks at the two coaches as they were not as they are.  By your logic if it came down to picking Cotter or Schmidt you'd pick Cotter for a Super Rugby role because back in NZ sure Schmidt was just an assistant.

Would you take Blackadder over Pivac for a NZ coaching role.  Rennie took a strong Glasgow team and failed in both competitions. He won the Conference yet lost at home in a semi final after a weeks rest.  He also fell apart in the Euros and had no idea how to play in it.  I expect Glasgow to make the quarters this year but to show again that he hasn't worked out how to beat the better teams. Munster, Scarlets and Leinster are all head of Glasgow in terms of smarts and that's coaching.

Pivac or Blackadder? Dunno. Both were average.
Rennie has won two super rugby titles, more than anyone coaching in the NH so i would take him over anyone. No I wouldnt take Cotter over Schmidt but thats only because hes a better coach now. Pivac and rennie are both untested internationally so rennies two titles outweigh anything either has done at this stage in their careers, but hey, what do we know about coaching. Fill yer boots.

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Re: Some Domestic- and Foreign-born Player & Coach Stats - Nov/Dec 2018

Post by Brendan on Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:04 am

Tman just pointing out that basing how good a coach is now on what they did before while taking no thought with what is happening now is a poor thought process.  Considering a NH international coach has to have a good ability to coach in the NH. If you also consider that the Champions Cup is closest to international style in terms of tactics and physically.  Rennie failed last year Pivac did not.  Add in that Pivac is the only coach to win a semi-final away from home in the Pro12/14 while Rennie lost his knockout game at home.

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Re: Some Domestic- and Foreign-born Player & Coach Stats - Nov/Dec 2018

Post by Brendan on Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:14 am

robbo277 wrote:The real question for me that comes out of these graphs is: what is the correct size of a player pool?

Looking at the first graph (and for simplicity ignoring English players overseas, ignoring that some England players will be born overseas and that some overseas born players will play for England) England have 461 players to pick from in a league of 690 - 67% of the league.

Ireland (as an example, and Wales return similar numbers) have 202 players to pick from in a league of 255 - 79%.

Now, Ireland are obviously doing better than England at current. But a home-born quota (as is sometimes argued, although more strongly in Johnson's era) would do England no good. To match Ireland's 79%, we would need to replace 84 foreign players with English players. Would the 462nd best England player really add that much to Eddie's squad? Meanwhile, the league quality would suffer, as if the 462nd best England player was better than the player he was replacing, he'd already be in the Premiership squad ahead of a more expensive foreign player.

The issue is, we have ~30 current international players. That's 30 players currently playing the majority of international matches, mixing it against the best players in the World in 11 elite games a year. By consistently playing in this environment, your international players become better players.

If we accept 30 as your number of current international players, Ireland have 12% of their top level domestic players as regular Ireland internationals. For England, this percentage is 4%.

England have more potential Internationals, larger population, more Premiership places, more European places, but a lot of these players are "unfinished". For instance, how good could Cipriani have been if he'd come through at a club with Wilkinson? If Cipriani with all his talent could have regularly benefitted from the knowledge and experience of Wilkinson's 90-something caps, 1200 points and 2 Lions tours?

For me, England have too many top level clubs. Even a reduction of 1/3 would help. 461 is far more players than we could ever consider needing. 200+ foreign players is also too many. We could happily cut that number. Drop the filler and only keep the quality players who improve the squads.

The reason England and France have 20-30 professional teams is more a fan's desire to support professional rugby rather than player numbers as is sometimes implied.  Hence as you point out their need to fill the player gap with non-national players.

SA & NZ have the players for more professional teams but not the fan desires. SA are seeing if there is desire.

If we take it as 5k+ fans as a measure of desire not many second tier teams outside of England/France would get that all season (nor do some of the lower top teams)

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Re: Some Domestic- and Foreign-born Player & Coach Stats - Nov/Dec 2018

Post by Taylorman on Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:56 am

Brendan wrote:Tman just pointing out that basing how good a coach is now on what they did before while taking no thought with what is happening now is a poor thought process.  Considering a NH international coach has to have a good ability to coach in the NH. If you also consider that the Champions Cup is closest to international style in terms of tactics and physically.  Rennie failed last year Pivac did not.  Add in that Pivac is the only coach to win a semi-final away from home in the Pro12/14 while Rennie lost his knockout game at home.

Typical loser thinking. Pivac doesnt have within cooee of what it takes to manage an international side. Semis blah blah. We’ll see. Gatland to pivac? Please.

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Re: Some Domestic- and Foreign-born Player & Coach Stats - Nov/Dec 2018

Post by SecretFly on Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:23 pm

Taylorman wrote:
Brendan wrote:Tman just pointing out that basing how good a coach is now on what they did before while taking no thought with what is happening now is a poor thought process.  Considering a NH international coach has to have a good ability to coach in the NH. If you also consider that the Champions Cup is closest to international style in terms of tactics and physically.  Rennie failed last year Pivac did not.  Add in that Pivac is the only coach to win a semi-final away from home in the Pro12/14 while Rennie lost his knockout game at home.

Typical loser thinking. Pivac doesnt have within cooee of what it takes to manage an international side. Semis blah blah. We’ll see. Gatland to pivac? Please.

I hope your prediction proves true, Tman. We Irish would like Wales to have a few barren years too... or decades maybe if I was greedy about it Wink

Them pesky basterdes are always clinging to our damn feet, denying us our true birth right to be the best rugby nation in this quadrant of the Galaxy! Looking forward to Pivac bringing an ending of their competitiveness. Bubbly

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Re: Some Domestic- and Foreign-born Player & Coach Stats - Nov/Dec 2018

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