Wales v England thread (6 Nations)

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Post by mikey_dragon on Sun 10 Feb 2019, 7:49 pm

First topic message reminder :

Date: 23rd Feb 2019
Time: 9:45 am (Mountain Time)
Venue: MILLENIUM Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)


Teams:

Wales: Wales: Liam Williams (Saracens); George North (Ospreys), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Hadleigh Parkes (Scarlets), Josh Adams (Worcester); Gareth Anscombe (Cardiff Blues), Gareth Davies (Scarlets); Rob Evans (Scarlets), Ken Owens (Scarlets), Tomas Francis (Exeter), Cory Hill (Dragons), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys, captain), Josh Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Ross Moriarty (Dragons).

Replacements: Elliot Dee (Dragons), Nicky Smith (Ospreys), Dillon Lewis (Cardiff Blues), Adam Beard (Ospreys), Aaron Wainwright (Dragons), Aled Davies (Ospreys), Dan Biggar (Northampton), Owen Watkin (Ospreys).


England: Daly; Nowell, Slade, Tuilagi, May; Farrell, Youngs; Moon, George, Sinckler, Lawes, Kruis, Wilson, Curry, B Vunipola.

Replacements: Cowan-Dickie, Genge, Williams, Launchbury, Shields, Robson, Ford, Cokanasiga.





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Post by No 7&1/2 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:21 am

Hope both are properly fit. Didn't realised it's as long as November since halfpenny last played. That'll be playing on his mind as curry hunts him down.

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Post by robbo277 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:25 am

The thing about composite teams is they just don't work as an analysis tool to show which team will win.

I have an England-centric viewpoint. Which Welsh players would I bring in to my England team? Probably none. Everyone's playing well at the moment, players seem to know their roles and form effective partnerships.

For instance, Tipuric is a fantastic player. From what I've seen he's better ball in hand as a runner and a link player than Curry. But England use their big guys as carriers (e.g. Vunipola), but you also see them link the play to shift the point of the attack. Having a ball playing 7 therefore isn't as useful to us, and having someone who is going to make dominant tackles and clear outs at 7 is more useful. Curry and Underhill both fulfill this role for us, Moriarty is probably the one Wales look to carry this workload. We don't want Billy wasting his energy and ability clearing too many attacking rucks, similarly Wales would rather see Tipuric on the ball rather than pinned in a ruck.

Stats to back this up: Curry has made 7 carries, 2 passes and 36 tackles (I don't have ruck stats). Billy has made 20 carries and 11 passes but only 17 tackles. Both have played around 145 minutes. Tipuric has made 4 carries and 6 passes and 18 tackles in 80 minutes. Moriarty has made 9 carries, 1 pass and 26 tackles in 94 minutes. So for England, Curry got his hands on the ball 4.9 times/80 minutes and Vunipola got his hands on the ball 17.2 times/80 minutes. Curry had more tackle involvements (over double) and I'd guess more ruck involvements. For Wales, Tipuric got his hands on the ball 10 times/80 minutes and Moriarty got his hands on the ball 8.5 times/80 minutes, so a more even spread but with Tipuric having more involvements. Moriarty had slightly more tackle involvements though and I'd guess slightly more ruck involvements. So Wales split their workload more evenly, but with Moriarty doing more off the ball and Tipuric doing more on the ball. England have Vunipola on the ball a lot more but Curry oding a lot more off the ball. Bringing Tipuric in for Curry would slightly unbalance that. Either we have to ask Tipuric to do more off the ball (and then we lose some of his skills) or we use Tipuric's skillset and get him on the ball more, but then we're asking Billy to do more off the ball and less with the ball.

So I wouldn't take Tipuric over Curry. But I'm sure if I asked a Welshman he wouldn't take Curry over Tipuric, because then they'd lose Tipuric's work with the ball in hand. It doesn't mean either is better than the other, it just means both teams are happy with their incumbents and don't see enough from the other player to warrant a change.

NB: This is in response to yesterday's debate over who has better players "man-for-man".

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Post by munkian on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:35 am

robbo277 wrote:The thing about composite teams is they just don't work as an analysis tool to show which team will win.

I have an England-centric viewpoint. Which Welsh players would I bring in to my England team? Probably none. Everyone's playing well at the moment, players seem to know their roles and form effective partnerships.

For instance, Tipuric is a fantastic player. From what I've seen he's better ball in hand as a runner and a link player than Curry. But England use their big guys as carriers (e.g. Vunipola), but you also see them link the play to shift the point of the attack. Having a ball playing 7 therefore isn't as useful to us, and having someone who is going to make dominant tackles and clear outs at 7 is more useful. Curry and Underhill both fulfill this role for us, Moriarty is probably the one Wales look to carry this workload. We don't want Billy wasting his energy and ability clearing too many attacking rucks, similarly Wales would rather see Tipuric on the ball rather than pinned in a ruck.

Stats to back this up: Curry has made 7 carries, 2 passes and 36 tackles (I don't have ruck stats). Billy has made 20 carries and 11 passes but only 17 tackles. Both have played around 145 minutes. Tipuric has made 4 carries and 6 passes and 18 tackles in 80 minutes. Moriarty has made 9 carries, 1 pass and 26 tackles in 94 minutes. So for England, Curry got his hands on the ball 4.9 times/80 minutes and Vunipola got his hands on the ball 17.2 times/80 minutes. Curry had more tackle involvements (over double) and I'd guess more ruck involvements. For Wales, Tipuric got his hands on the ball 10 times/80 minutes and Moriarty got his hands on the ball 8.5 times/80 minutes, so a more even spread but with Tipuric having more involvements. Moriarty had slightly more tackle involvements though and I'd guess slightly more ruck involvements. So Wales split their workload more evenly, but with Moriarty doing more off the ball and Tipuric doing more on the ball. England have Vunipola on the ball a lot more but Curry oding a lot more off the ball. Bringing Tipuric in for Curry would slightly unbalance that. Either we have to ask Tipuric to do more off the ball (and then we lose some of his skills) or we use Tipuric's skillset and get him on the ball more, but then we're asking Billy to do more off the ball and less with the ball.

So I wouldn't take Tipuric over Curry. But I'm sure if I asked a Welshman he wouldn't take Curry over Tipuric, because then they'd lose Tipuric's work with the ball in hand. It doesn't mean either is better than the other, it just means both teams are happy with their incumbents and don't see enough from the other player to warrant a change.

NB: This is in response to yesterday's debate over who has better players "man-for-man".

Curry (20) - 7 caps is a better player than Tipuric 59 Wales caps 1 Lions test cap ? Erm
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Post by The Oracle on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:39 am

I’d prefer Edwina Curry.
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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:40 am

munkian wrote:
robbo277 wrote:The thing about composite teams is they just don't work as an analysis tool to show which team will win.

I have an England-centric viewpoint. Which Welsh players would I bring in to my England team? Probably none. Everyone's playing well at the moment, players seem to know their roles and form effective partnerships.

For instance, Tipuric is a fantastic player. From what I've seen he's better ball in hand as a runner and a link player than Curry. But England use their big guys as carriers (e.g. Vunipola), but you also see them link the play to shift the point of the attack. Having a ball playing 7 therefore isn't as useful to us, and having someone who is going to make dominant tackles and clear outs at 7 is more useful. Curry and Underhill both fulfill this role for us, Moriarty is probably the one Wales look to carry this workload. We don't want Billy wasting his energy and ability clearing too many attacking rucks, similarly Wales would rather see Tipuric on the ball rather than pinned in a ruck.

Stats to back this up: Curry has made 7 carries, 2 passes and 36 tackles (I don't have ruck stats). Billy has made 20 carries and 11 passes but only 17 tackles. Both have played around 145 minutes. Tipuric has made 4 carries and 6 passes and 18 tackles in 80 minutes. Moriarty has made 9 carries, 1 pass and 26 tackles in 94 minutes. So for England, Curry got his hands on the ball 4.9 times/80 minutes and Vunipola got his hands on the ball 17.2 times/80 minutes. Curry had more tackle involvements (over double) and I'd guess more ruck involvements. For Wales, Tipuric got his hands on the ball 10 times/80 minutes and Moriarty got his hands on the ball 8.5 times/80 minutes, so a more even spread but with Tipuric having more involvements. Moriarty had slightly more tackle involvements though and I'd guess slightly more ruck involvements. So Wales split their workload more evenly, but with Moriarty doing more off the ball and Tipuric doing more on the ball. England have Vunipola on the ball a lot more but Curry oding a lot more off the ball. Bringing Tipuric in for Curry would slightly unbalance that. Either we have to ask Tipuric to do more off the ball (and then we lose some of his skills) or we use Tipuric's skillset and get him on the ball more, but then we're asking Billy to do more off the ball and less with the ball.

So I wouldn't take Tipuric over Curry. But I'm sure if I asked a Welshman he wouldn't take Curry over Tipuric, because then they'd lose Tipuric's work with the ball in hand. It doesn't mean either is better than the other, it just means both teams are happy with their incumbents and don't see enough from the other player to warrant a change.

NB: This is in response to yesterday's debate over who has better players "man-for-man".

Curry (20)  - 7 caps is a better player than Tipuric 59 Wales caps 1 Lions test cap ? Erm

He did not say that.

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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:41 am

The Oracle wrote:I’d prefer Edwina Curry.

I name thee John Major

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Post by Scottrf on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:47 am

LordDowlais wrote:I need him to clarify what he means by second layer of teams. Rolling Eyes

I didn't want to use tier as it has a strict definition. The teams below the top 3.

NZ England Ireland are a similar standard
Wales Australia South Africa Scotland Next
Fiji Argentina France Japan After

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Post by LordDowlais on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:50 am

Scottrf wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:I need him to clarify what he means by second layer of teams. Rolling Eyes

I didn't want to use tier as it has a strict definition. The teams below the top 3.

NZ England Ireland are a similar standard
Wales Australia South Africa Scotland Next
Fiji Argentina France Japan After

Ah, so the world rankings are relevant now are they ?

England have only been a top layer side for a fortnight then by your reckoning. FFS.

picard

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Post by No 7&1/2 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:52 am

Curry is in that place where a lot of people mainly outside England don't know much about him and haven't seen him play yet. Similar stage to Underhill in the AIs bar a few people to the west had seen him turn put for a Welsh club. Curry has had a very good start to his career and bar injury, which opened the door to Underhill, may have had a higher standing by now.

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Post by Scottrf on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:57 am

LordDowlais wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:I need him to clarify what he means by second layer of teams. Rolling Eyes

I didn't want to use tier as it has a strict definition. The teams below the top 3.

NZ England Ireland are a similar standard
Wales Australia South Africa Scotland Next
Fiji Argentina France Japan After

Ah, so the world rankings are relevant now are they ?

England have only been a top layer side for a fortnight then by your reckoning. FFS.

picard

It's nothing to do with the world rankings. It's a few years since Wales won a 6N and they get smashed by NZ every time. If you can truly put yourselves near equal with NZ you make top tier.

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Post by Ricardo74 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:58 am

munkian wrote:

Curry (20)  - 7 caps is a better player than Tipuric 59 Wales caps 1 Lions test cap ? Erm

I think the point was that Curry "fits" the England system better than Tipuric would at the moment. I don't think anyone can doubt Tipuric's quality or credentials.


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Post by LordDowlais on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:59 am

Scottrf wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:I need him to clarify what he means by second layer of teams. Rolling Eyes

I didn't want to use tier as it has a strict definition. The teams below the top 3.

NZ England Ireland are a similar standard
Wales Australia South Africa Scotland Next
Fiji Argentina France Japan After

Ah, so the world rankings are relevant now are they ?

England have only been a top layer side for a fortnight then by your reckoning. FFS.

picard

It's nothing to do with the world rankings. It's a few years since Wales won a 6N and they get smashed by NZ every time. If you can truly put yourselves near equal with NZ you make top tier.

So it's your own remit then ? Rolling Eyes


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Post by Scottrf on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:59 am

LordDowlais wrote:So it's your own remit then ? Rolling Eyes

Yep, my opinions are based on my own opinions, yes.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:03 pm

The ariel battle will be fascinating in this game. Dan Biggar's ability to field his own garryowens is in my view second to none but England operate with 3 or 4 blocking runners per kick so looking forward to seeing how he deals with that. England may get a ref that isn't as lenient on the lines they run.

Farrell's tactical kicking has been one of England's key competitive advantages in this years tournament so will be interesting what Gatland has in store to defend and counteract it.

Biggar has used well weighted kicks into the danger zone to good effect for Wales too.

England have the better pack at the moment in my view so should win however, Wales do have guys like Navidi that can create turn overs on the rip and from the ruck.

Could be the game of the tournament.


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Post by LordDowlais on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:04 pm

But you are basing England on a nation you have played once, and lost in the space of about 5 years.

Well done. How can you judge England on New Zealand when you have done a sterling job at avoiding them ?

Do you realise how silly you are sounding ?

I get it, England have played excelent over the first two games, well, one and a half games, but it was only a few months ago that Japan gave you a run for your money.

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:08 pm

Ouch! The Japanese cut is the cruelest cut of all!

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Post by Scottrf on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:09 pm

It’s only you who wouldn’t put England in the top tier.

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Post by maestegmafia on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:11 pm

robbo277 wrote:

Curry got his hands on the ball 4.9 times/80 minutes and Vunipola got his hands on the ball 17.2 times/80 minutes.



Hi rob

How can you measure getting your hands on the ball in a decimal?

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Post by Ricardo74 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:13 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:
Farrell's tactical kicking has been one of England's key competitive advantages in this years tournament so will be interesting what Gatland has in store to defend and counteract it.

Part of the quality of the England kicking game has been that it's not just coming from Faz, though. I agree with you that his kicking from hand has been excellent, but Slade, Daly and even Ashton have contributed with excellent, pinpoint kicks attacking space. I think it's indicative of the quality of communication in the side at the moment that the gaps are being spotted and exploited very quickly.

Biggar is indeed excellent under the high ball, especially his own kicks, but what kicking threat from hand do the rest of the Welsh back line offer? Liam Williams is, as was pointed out above, likely to back himself ball in hand initially (not unreasonably), and JD2 tends to kick long when he kicks at all (correct me if I'm wrong on that).

Collapse2005 wrote:
Could be the game of the tournament.

It's certainly set up to be. Plenty of tie for the hype to build yet, too!


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Post by Collapse2005 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:16 pm

Yeah ever Ashton put in a nice kick for May to run on to v France. Think May could have been offside but Owens wasnt keen on reviewing it with the TMO.

Edit. he wasnt offside

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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:24 pm

SecretFly wrote:Ouch!  The Japanese cut is the cruelest cut of all!

Not really after all in their last 3 fixtures with Japan Wales did lose one and in the AIs in 2016 scraped home thanks to a last minute drop goal.

Of course all this comparing teams by matches with other teams can get rather silly if you wish.

World Champions New Zealand were beaten by Ireland, Ireland lost to England, England lost to Scotland, Scotland lost to USA thus USA are the best team in teh world?

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Post by No 7&1/2 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:29 pm

What was ignored by a few in the autumn is that Jones intentionally didn't prepare the team as well as he could have done. Sounds strange but he brought the team back from Portugal (I think) late for SA to mimic how we will have to prepare in the world cup and then only trained part f the week before japan rather than how They usually would. They prepared as normal for NZ and Australia.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:34 pm

No 7&1/2 wrote:What was ignored by a few in the autumn is that Jones intentionally didn't prepare the team as well as he could have done. Sounds strange but he brought the team back from Portugal (I think) late for SA to mimic how we will have to prepare in the world cup and then only trained part f the week before japan rather than how They usually would. They prepared as normal for NZ and Australia.

Jeez, you sound like Taylorman with those theories.

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Post by No 7&1/2 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:38 pm

It's not a theory simply what happened. It's obviously up to others to decide if that affects performance, though suggesting we were close to losing the japan game is stretching it.
Similar to last 6 nations. You could have viewed it as a downward spiral from England who were rebelling against Jones...or take a view that they looked a little jaded were well in the games they lost bar Ireland and that they were likely to improve again.
Up to individuals.

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Post by maestegmafia on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:39 pm

Halfpenny and Patchell are now returning to full training. We will know more on a Faletau later today.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:41 pm

No 7&1/2 wrote:It's not a theory simply what happened. It's obviously up to others to decide if that affects performance, though suggesting we were close to losing the japan game is stretching it.
Similar to last 6 nations. You could have viewed it as a downward spiral from England who were rebelling against Jones...or take a view that they looked a little jaded were well in the games they lost bar Ireland and that they were likely to improve again.
Up to individuals.

How do you know that he "intentionally" didn't prepare the team as well as he could have? Maybe he just didn't prepare the team as well as he could have.

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Post by Scottrf on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:43 pm

LordDowlais wrote:I get it, England have played excelent over the first two games, well, one and a half games,

One and a half?

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Post by lostinwales on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:44 pm

maestegmafia wrote:Halfpenny and Patchell are now returning to full training. We will know more on a Faletau later today.

One of the problems that you can argue that Ireland had 1st game was too many players with too little game time, coming back off injury.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:52 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:The ariel battle will be fascinating in this game.

That's a Bold statement.

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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:54 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:The ariel battle will be fascinating in this game.

That's a Bold statement.

Tumbleweed

True,

But things could get quite Daz.ling

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Post by No 7&1/2 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:55 pm

Because it was announced before hand collapse and then reported on afterwards. He was replicating the time he would have for the world cup.

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Post by BlueNote on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:56 pm

For me, Wales have a problem with game control from half-back at the moment, which is one hell of a problem against the well-oiled England machine. I don't think any of the 3 scrum-halves in the squad provide this, and no-one is nailing down the 10 shirt.

I'd like to see Gareth Davies/Rhys Patchell/Owen Watkin at 9/10/12. Watkin has gone a bit under the radar, but is a talented ball-player who has size and pace and is defensively sound; certainly a better long-term option than Parkes. Patchell has shown the most in the 10 jersey, and copped some unfair flack for the corresponding game last year.

For Wales to be competitive will require the coaching team to play a blinder over the next couple of weeks. We have to show loads more in attack than we have so far.

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Post by BamBam on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:57 pm

LondonTiger wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:The ariel battle will be fascinating in this game.

That's a Bold statement.

Tumbleweed

True,

But things could get quite Daz.ling

I'm confident we'll keep a clean sheet

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Post by lostinwales on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 1:12 pm

BamBam wrote:
LondonTiger wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:The ariel battle will be fascinating in this game.

That's a Bold statement.

Tumbleweed

True,

But things could get quite Daz.ling

I'm confident we'll keep a clean sheet

And take comfort in the quality of our conditioning

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Post by RiscaGame on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 1:13 pm

You will need to be whiter than white.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 1:25 pm

No 7&1/2 wrote:Because it was announced before hand collapse and then reported on afterwards. He was replicating the time he would have for the world cup.

Fair enough though I would take what Jones says to the media with a massive grain of salt.

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Post by The Oracle on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 1:31 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
robbo277 wrote:

Curry got his hands on the ball 4.9 times/80 minutes and Vunipola got his hands on the ball 17.2 times/80 minutes.



Hi rob

How can you measure getting your hands on the ball in a decimal?


A knock on is always scored 0.2 in the stats.
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Post by robbo277 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 1:55 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
robbo277 wrote:

Curry got his hands on the ball 4.9 times/80 minutes and Vunipola got his hands on the ball 17.2 times/80 minutes.



Hi rob

How can you measure getting your hands on the ball in a decimal?

It is an average. Because Curry got the ball 9 times and has played 146 minutes 9/146*80 = 4.9. It's to allow for the differences in playing time between the 4 players I was analysing.

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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 1:59 pm

The missing 14 minutes being the bloodbin and the sinbin?

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Post by robbo277 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 2:03 pm

munkian wrote:Curry (20)  - 7 caps is a better player than Tipuric 59 Wales caps 1 Lions test cap ? Erm

Not what I said. But even if it was, you haven't proved it wrong.

Tipuric is more accomplished than Curry - if we measure accomplishment by caps (esp. Lions) and Championships. Fine, no-one can argue that, it's objective.

Is Tipuric a better player than Curry? On balance, he probably is.

If you offered me a straight swap Tipuric for Curry right now with a view to the game next week, would I take it? No. If I swapped them, I would either be telling Tipuric to limit his involvements on the ball so he can do more off the ball, or I'd have to change my gameplan slightly. I don't want to change my gameplan, so I'd have to tell Tipuric to change the way he played - and therefore I wouldn't get the best out of him.

Given Curry's form and the fact that he suits the way we play, I wouldn't want to swap him for a player who would be asked to play an unfamiliar role, and one I don't think he's best suited to.

This is exactly the point I was making. Me making a composite team by naming "which Welsh players I would have in my England team" offers some insight, but it's not an exact "this player is better than that player" science.

Similarly, I wouldn't expect you to take Ben Youngs, even though I think he is better than Davies or Williams. Because he doesn't fit your style of play and you'd either have to change your gameplan or make Youngs play a game he is less suited to.

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Post by robbo277 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 2:04 pm

LondonTiger wrote:The missing 14 minutes being the bloodbin and the sinbin?

I think so. I am relying on the Six Nations site, but that seems accurate.

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Post by maestegmafia on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 2:14 pm

robbo277 wrote:
LondonTiger wrote:The missing 14 minutes being the bloodbin and the sinbin?

I think so. I am relying on the Six Nations site, but that seems accurate.

Is the sin binning not considered detrimental to his overall performance?

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Post by maestegmafia on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 2:29 pm

Faletau is out for the rest of the six Nations Championship

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/taulupe-faletau-play-no-part-15819234

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Post by Rugby Fan on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 2:42 pm

maestegmafia wrote:Faletau is out for the rest of the six Nations Championship

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/taulupe-faletau-play-no-part-15819234
I'd put him in cotton wool now. Even if he does play, and picks up a knock, I'd still try and get him in my World Cup squad. Richard Hill had a hamstring injury going into the 2003 World Cup but was selected, even though he was still recovering. I'd offer Faletau the same scope, since he has shown he doesn't need a lot of playing time to get back into the swing of things.

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Post by miaow on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 2:48 pm

Scottrf wrote:We’ve had the missed tackle debate before but Ireland are the only team close to England in terms of a defence.

I believe Wales had the best defence in the NH last season?

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Post by robbo277 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 2:49 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
robbo277 wrote:
LondonTiger wrote:The missing 14 minutes being the bloodbin and the sinbin?

I think so. I am relying on the Six Nations site, but that seems accurate.

Is the sin binning not considered detrimental to his overall performance?

Yes and no I guess. Stats need context.

If you are looking at an overall involvement of a player, then I would potentially add back the yellow card period. E.g. if you looked at "carries + passes + tackles made + rucks attended" as some kind of total involvement stat, then you could argue that Curry wasn't getting involved due to his own error, and shouldn't have the sin bin time removed from his available playing time.

However the comparison I was doing was more on how a player is getting involved, e.g. "carries + passes (hands on ball)" vs "tackles made" for that person. So the comparison for Curry is one type of involvement/time vs another type of involvement/time, so changing his time wouldn't affect the relative analysis?

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Post by miaow on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 3:00 pm

LondonTiger wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:I need him to clarify what he means by second layer of teams. Rolling Eyes

Probably not a great deal. It was felt like a little dig at a poster who, as 7.5 says, was banging open about an elite Top 3.

Of course it may be a huge compliment to Wales as NZ are perhaps in their own layer.

If Halfpenny plays it sways the game completely. With Liam at 15 and Anscombe at 10, Wales have a decent running threat at first receiver to exploit England's aggressive defence, as he did last year. And Liam can do that too, from deep. But whilst LH has the best backfield positioning I think I've ever seen from a 15, it will be the kicking that makes all the difference. Anscombe is not a front line test kicker - Halfpenny clearly is. If Anscombe can be freed up from that responsibility then it will probably improve his all round game but, crucially, Wales can exploit in 3, 6, 9 points any English indiscretions, which they will have to if they are to win the game.

I cannot see him picking Biggar until at least the 50th minute. He wants Anscombe for the WC. But I am slightly worried by the tactical kicking game. No-one really comes close to Biggar for Wales and England obviously have Daly, Slade and Farrell.

Knowing Gatland he'll probably put 1/2P on the bench. He tends not to rush players back these days. However, like Faletau, he's not the best impact sub. I'd start him and run that risk of him not being totally sharp. Either that or start Biggar.

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Post by Ricardo74 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 3:07 pm

Mako's out.

From England Rugby:

12 February 2019, 14:58
Following medical assessments Mako Vunipola (Saracens) has been ruled out of England’s Guinness Six Nations campaign with an ankle ligament injury.

Vunipola picked up the injury during England’s win against France on Sunday and is expected to be out for 10 weeks.

The England prop will begin his rehabilitation with his club Saracens.

England head coach Eddie Jones said: “It is obviously very disappointing to lose Mako at this stage as he is an important player for us but it does provide an opportunity for the team to grow.”

England will assemble in central London tomorrow lunchtime for a three-day camp ahead of their next match against Wales on the 23rd February in Cardiff.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 3:09 pm

Big loss for England

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Post by miaow on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 3:12 pm

robbo277 wrote:The thing about composite teams is they just don't work as an analysis tool to show which team will win.

I have an England-centric viewpoint. Which Welsh players would I bring in to my England team? Probably none. Everyone's playing well at the moment, players seem to know their roles and form effective partnerships.

For instance, Tipuric is a fantastic player. From what I've seen he's better ball in hand as a runner and a link player than Curry. But England use their big guys as carriers (e.g. Vunipola), but you also see them link the play to shift the point of the attack. Having a ball playing 7 therefore isn't as useful to us, and having someone who is going to make dominant tackles and clear outs at 7 is more useful. Curry and Underhill both fulfill this role for us, Moriarty is probably the one Wales look to carry this workload. We don't want Billy wasting his energy and ability clearing too many attacking rucks, similarly Wales would rather see Tipuric on the ball rather than pinned in a ruck.

Stats to back this up: Curry has made 7 carries, 2 passes and 36 tackles (I don't have ruck stats). Billy has made 20 carries and 11 passes but only 17 tackles. Both have played around 145 minutes. Tipuric has made 4 carries and 6 passes and 18 tackles in 80 minutes. Moriarty has made 9 carries, 1 pass and 26 tackles in 94 minutes. So for England, Curry got his hands on the ball 4.9 times/80 minutes and Vunipola got his hands on the ball 17.2 times/80 minutes. Curry had more tackle involvements (over double) and I'd guess more ruck involvements. For Wales, Tipuric got his hands on the ball 10 times/80 minutes and Moriarty got his hands on the ball 8.5 times/80 minutes, so a more even spread but with Tipuric having more involvements. Moriarty had slightly more tackle involvements though and I'd guess slightly more ruck involvements. So Wales split their workload more evenly, but with Moriarty doing more off the ball and Tipuric doing more on the ball. England have Vunipola on the ball a lot more but Curry oding a lot more off the ball. Bringing Tipuric in for Curry would slightly unbalance that. Either we have to ask Tipuric to do more off the ball (and then we lose some of his skills) or we use Tipuric's skillset and get him on the ball more, but then we're asking Billy to do more off the ball and less with the ball.

So I wouldn't take Tipuric over Curry. But I'm sure if I asked a Welshman he wouldn't take Curry over Tipuric, because then they'd lose Tipuric's work with the ball in hand. It doesn't mean either is better than the other, it just means both teams are happy with their incumbents and don't see enough from the other player to warrant a change.

NB: This is in response to yesterday's debate over who has better players "man-for-man".

Completely agree. Composite teams outside context are inherently 'nonsense'. But it's worth repeating because, particularly for Wales, people tend to intermittently forget just good they are/can be as individuals, which is why I brought it up. I can't believe, for instance, that I'm having to defend JD2 again - feels like deja vu!

I also think that use of stats is, again, largely irrelevant as any 'objective' viewpoint of Tips/Curry - as you say, they've happened within very different contexts and even then it's a very small sample of info. I honestly don't think England would lose anything with Tipuric in the slightest. He's so good he can tailor his game to fit any system. Until Underhill came along, I think if you had put Tipuric in the England team (even in Lancaster's day) it would have been like a missing piece and they would have flourished. For what it's worth, of a composite back-row - not necessarily the most balanced, or the 'best' overall, but for me the 'best' players - would be Underhill at 6, Tips 7, Faletau 8.

Anyway, yeah, it is inherently subjective and that's what I was always suggesting; think people misinterpreted me as saying, definitively, that you'd take North over May or Ashton. Obviously different players suit different environments. As with the Ireland/England team debate - would you drop Toner for Itoje in Schmidt's system, despite Itoje being a much better overall player? Earls for May? How do players combine? Who do you support? All these things matter. It's nowhere near an exact science.

As I also said, I don't think England fear Wales as a team in the slightest. Too many weaknesses.

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