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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 14 Mar 2019, 9:02 pm

First topic message reminder :

Duty281 wrote:So a good day for the Prime Minister, at last. Motion carried and some pesky amendments defeated.


Yes folks a good day for the PM is telling the Country over 50 times in the Commons the UK is leaving on the 29th March and then winning an extension..

What a low bar..

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 02 May 2019, 6:47 pm

Because no left or right Party usually gets more than 40%...

260 mps...When a majority is 326..

The left has to look to the Centre for support..So does the right..


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Post by Pr4wn on Sun 05 May 2019, 11:55 am

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/05/brexit-party-figures-who-left-over-offensive-posts-are-still-directors

New name, same old party.

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 10 May 2019, 5:33 pm

Duty281 wrote:
BamBam wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
BamBam wrote:What about the large donor who conveniently doesn't need to be revealed until a week after the elections, when that spunktrumpet Farage can release it on a good day for bad news?

https://www.indy100.com/article/nigel-farage-brexit-party-donation-funding-bannon-banks-8891131


Mentioned earlier in the thread.

Was it? The only mention I can see is this

Duty281 wrote:
Dolphin Ziggler wrote:I think Change UK are nearly as likely to be lying about donations too. Farage himself has said they had one big donation to begin with and won't reveal who.

But it will be revealed in time.

It being revealed in time (after the election) really isn't good enough. Farage knows exactly how to maximise the benefit of this idiotic rule, and will bury it on a bad news day. Surely the Electoral Commission should have learned their lesson after the referendum, or is that too much to ask?

This is common practice for all political parties in this country. I think I'd agree that I'd like to see greater transparency about party funding (all of them), but this is too much to hope for while the incompetent Electoral Commission regulates things.

Ah, the great puzzle is over. I thought it had the legs of a proper Lord Lucan or Percy Fawcett mystery, but never mind.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/10/former-conservative-donor-jeremy-hosking-revealed-200000-donor/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon 13 May 2019, 8:57 am

Euro poll...

Brexit Party 34
Labour........16
Lib Dems....15
Con.............10

Scary poll....Even more worrying is the fact that Farage spent 5 minutes on Marr shouting him down and calling the Public broadcaster pathetic and it won't hurt him..

Going to be a Fake news assault on respected media of the kind Trump waged and is still waging..Though CNN hasn't helped their cause...

Big worry where we are headed with Farage and now LePen leading in France..

As immigrants are a net plus on the Economy...Very misleading comments will be about to be puked out..

Hopefully the Public sees sense.

The Man is a fraud.

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Post by Ogfyc on Mon 13 May 2019, 10:21 am

Farage the snake oil salesman. in good company with the rest our political leaders.





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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Mon 13 May 2019, 10:31 am

Again, I'd just like to remind everyone that Ukip won the most votes at the last European elections, and went on to do sweet Fanny Adams at Westminster. I'll be concerned if / when they do anything in the next general election.

I read a good piece the other day about the danger (to the Brexit party) of Farage becoming the sole face / voice of Brexit. It's a fallacy to believe that everyone who voted leave did so because of him. Many will have voted leave despite him. Many will have trusted leave campaigners who told us we'd be staying in the single market and the customs union, and will not be happy at all at the prospect of us leaving without a deal. For those soft-Brexit leave voters, Farage is not necessarily a vote winner. It's by no means a given that everyone who voted leave (and who still wants to leave) will vote for the Brexit party.


Last edited by Luckless Pedestrian on Mon 13 May 2019, 12:17 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : grammar)

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 13 May 2019, 10:36 am

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Euro poll...

Brexit Party 34
Labour........16
Lib Dems....15
Con.............10

Exceptional! Yahoo

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Post by Pr4wn on Mon 13 May 2019, 10:40 am

Farage hasn't actually done anything to help anyone. All he's done is moan. He had his chance to make an impact on Brexit negotiations when they happened but he was strangely quiet during this period.

Let's not forget, he hasn't actually suggested any viable way out of this mess.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Mon 13 May 2019, 11:05 am

In fairness, he couldn't have an impact on the negotiations because he's not an MP. Failed seven times to get elected, the poor lamb.

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Post by Pr4wn on Mon 13 May 2019, 11:09 am

He didn't even try. He just vanished. Same as Johnson.

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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Mon 13 May 2019, 12:10 pm

He's a horrid man, clearly. He doesn't care about you or anyone else.

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Post by Pr4wn on Mon 13 May 2019, 12:17 pm

Nigel Farage cares for Britain's future in the same way that Boris Johnson does.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Mon 13 May 2019, 12:56 pm

If Farage and Brexit Party walk the EU elections, does it really mean anything? The E27 will presumably ignore him and his in Brussels and we're leaving in any case one way or t'other, so his fun'll be short-lived.
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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Mon 13 May 2019, 1:03 pm

Will be a fascinating few days after as the media decides what they think it means.

I think it will show that the Brexit party was a good protest vote for people who want Brexit and that we still will have the exact same no idea as before.

Country’s a mess

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 13 May 2019, 1:30 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:If Farage and Brexit Party walk the EU elections, does it really mean anything? The E27 will presumably ignore him and his in Brussels and we're leaving in any case one way or t'other, so his fun'll be short-lived.

It will mean two things:

1) It will be the third national election in a row to show clear support for leaving the European Union, following the 2016 referendum where 8% more voted to 'Leave' than 'Remain', and the 2017 GE where over 85% of the votes went to parties whose manifestos pledged to honour the referendum result. This will offer an excellent rebuttal to the claims that 'the UK has changed its mind' or similar such assertions. Doubtless, if the Change Party or the Lib Dems or the Greens were to win these elections, that's exactly what would be said!

2) It will show to the Tories (and also Labour to an extent) that if they water down Brexit, or even revoke Article 50, there is a party waiting in the wings to take their votes that a sizeable number are willing to vote for. Indeed, the whole election is a brilliant display of how dismally the Tories are doing.

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Post by Pr4wn on Mon 13 May 2019, 1:46 pm

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:If Farage and Brexit Party walk the EU elections, does it really mean anything? The E27 will presumably ignore him and his in Brussels and we're leaving in any case one way or t'other, so his fun'll be short-lived.

It will mean two things:

1) It will be the third national election in a row to show clear support for leaving the European Union, following the 2016 referendum where 8% more voted to 'Leave' than 'Remain', and the 2017 GE where over 85% of the votes went to parties whose manifestos pledged to honour the referendum result. This will offer an excellent rebuttal to the claims that 'the UK has changed its mind' or similar such assertions. Doubtless, if the Change Party or the Lib Dems or the Greens were to win these elections, that's exactly what would be said!

2) It will show to the Tories (and also Labour to an extent) that if they water down Brexit, or even revoke Article 50, there is a party waiting in the wings to take their votes that a sizeable number are willing to vote for. Indeed, the whole election is a brilliant display of how dismally the Tories are doing.

Still scared of another referendum though, eh?

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 13 May 2019, 1:54 pm

Pr4wn wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:If Farage and Brexit Party walk the EU elections, does it really mean anything? The E27 will presumably ignore him and his in Brussels and we're leaving in any case one way or t'other, so his fun'll be short-lived.

It will mean two things:

1) It will be the third national election in a row to show clear support for leaving the European Union, following the 2016 referendum where 8% more voted to 'Leave' than 'Remain', and the 2017 GE where over 85% of the votes went to parties whose manifestos pledged to honour the referendum result. This will offer an excellent rebuttal to the claims that 'the UK has changed its mind' or similar such assertions. Doubtless, if the Change Party or the Lib Dems or the Greens were to win these elections, that's exactly what would be said!

2) It will show to the Tories (and also Labour to an extent) that if they water down Brexit, or even revoke Article 50, there is a party waiting in the wings to take their votes that a sizeable number are willing to vote for. Indeed, the whole election is a brilliant display of how dismally the Tories are doing.

Still scared of another referendum though, eh?

Nope. But I want the first decision implemented - as in keeping with democracy - before we start to think of having another referendum. Don't want to do what Turkey are doing.

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Post by Pr4wn on Mon 13 May 2019, 2:05 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Pr4wn wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:If Farage and Brexit Party walk the EU elections, does it really mean anything? The E27 will presumably ignore him and his in Brussels and we're leaving in any case one way or t'other, so his fun'll be short-lived.

It will mean two things:

1) It will be the third national election in a row to show clear support for leaving the European Union, following the 2016 referendum where 8% more voted to 'Leave' than 'Remain', and the 2017 GE where over 85% of the votes went to parties whose manifestos pledged to honour the referendum result. This will offer an excellent rebuttal to the claims that 'the UK has changed its mind' or similar such assertions. Doubtless, if the Change Party or the Lib Dems or the Greens were to win these elections, that's exactly what would be said!

2) It will show to the Tories (and also Labour to an extent) that if they water down Brexit, or even revoke Article 50, there is a party waiting in the wings to take their votes that a sizeable number are willing to vote for. Indeed, the whole election is a brilliant display of how dismally the Tories are doing.

Still scared of another referendum though, eh?

Nope. But I want the first decision implemented - as in keeping with democracy - before we start to think of having another referendum. Don't want to do what Turkey are doing.

We wouldn't be doing what Turkey are doing.

Also, I'd say that dirty money and campaign finance irregularities are not really in keeping with democracy. As soon as we know what Brexit will actually look like, it should be put to the people.

As I've said, we've already had a referendum on fantasy Brexit, let's have one on real Brexit.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Mon 13 May 2019, 2:12 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:If Farage and Brexit Party walk the EU elections, does it really mean anything? The E27 will presumably ignore him and his in Brussels and we're leaving in any case one way or t'other, so his fun'll be short-lived.

'Teach those career politicians in Westminster a lesson by sending me, a career politician, to an entirely different parliament, where I've done very little beyond taking a wage for 20 years.'

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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Mon 13 May 2019, 2:43 pm

Was it binding?

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Post by Samo on Mon 13 May 2019, 3:10 pm

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Was it binding?

If it was it would already have been ruled null and void.

The irony.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 15 May 2019, 9:55 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48275827

One last try for Theresa.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 16 May 2019, 3:55 pm

Interesting bit of polling here, commissioned by the Daily Mail but I guess they won't be putting this bit in the paper:


EU referendum voting intention (Change since 18th Feb)

Leave: 47% (-1)

Remain: 53% (+1)


I also really like this one:


Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

The UK would have gotten a better Brexit deal from the EU if Boris Johnson had been Prime Minister: 30%

The UK would not have gotten a better Brexit deal from the EU if Boris Johnson had been Prime Minister: 48%

Don’t know: 23%


(Don't like this 'gotten' business though.)


https://www.survation.com/latest-polling-on-brexit/

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 16 May 2019, 4:37 pm

They certainly did put it in the paper, when this poll came out two months ago.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 16 May 2019, 4:40 pm

Oh balls, I though it was new! Laugh

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 16 May 2019, 4:53 pm

Looks like Johnson will be dealing with Brexit soon..

Big favourite now May is going within weeks..


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Post by Duty281 on Fri 17 May 2019, 9:08 am

Interesting new YouGov poll has Labour in third place, on 15%, behind the Lib Dems on 16%. Brexit Party well out in front on 35%. Tories on 9%.

The Lib Dems have been quietly marching forward without much comment - between the campaign starting properly and the local election date, they didn't poll higher than 10%. Since the local elections, they haven't polled any lower than 11%. Seems clear they are the party of choice for Remain voters, having shrugged off the challenge of the Greens and the non-existent challenge of Change (a party that has made UKIP look professional and efficient in the last few weeks).

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Post by Pr4wn on Fri 17 May 2019, 9:40 am

They also have policies, which is a plus.

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Post by MrInvisible on Fri 17 May 2019, 9:49 am

Already done my postal vote.  Voted Green, primarily for their environmental stance but also strong Remain credentials.  There is also a strong link between these 2 factors - we're more likely to be able to make the necessary changes to limit impact of climate change as part of a larger bloc like EU, which whatever its other faults, has a v strong track record on the environment (compare and contrast with likes of Russia, Australia, US, etc).  Hoping that with the recent local election success Greens can pick up another EU seat or 2.

Agree that Lib Dems will do well - 2014/15 was their nadir and Brexit is the one policy where they can still demonstrate clear principles - they know this and have wisely focused on this. I still suspect many urban left-leaning voters will have keener memories of Lib Dems role in austerity in the coalition, but nevertheless they will peel off Remain minded Tories and a few Labour voters outside the metropolitan areas. In the larger towns and cities more of the Labour Remain vote is likely to go to Green.

On Brexit party they will do well but its important to keep perspective and compare their result to the UKIP 2014 one.

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 17 May 2019, 10:08 am

MrInvisible wrote:On Brexit party they will do well but its important to keep perspective and compare their result to the UKIP 2014 one.

Looks like they will beat 2014 UKIP on every measure - popular vote, % of the vote, seats won.

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Post by Pr4wn on Fri 17 May 2019, 11:23 am

Duty281 wrote:
MrInvisible wrote:On Brexit party they will do well but its important to keep perspective and compare their result to the UKIP 2014 one.

Looks like they will beat 2014 UKIP on every measure - popular vote, % of the vote, seats won.

And then maybe the public will find out what they actually stand for? Other than nationalistic whining.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 17 May 2019, 2:35 pm

The Brexit Party were always going to succeed...

The US and UK are home to thousands of people looking to blame someone because their lives aren't as fulfilled as they'd like...Probably brought up on James Stewart garbage and think that is life..or should be.

So along comes a guy very skilled in tapping into the frustration and hey presto The Brexit Party is thriving..

Sad thing is these People don't realise no one is a 100% happy but you either get on with it or you look for someone to blame..

I prefer to get on with it..

Voting Labour....For all its faults and leadership woes it has policies and I won't vote for Lib Dems after 2010-2015.

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 17 May 2019, 2:55 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The Brexit Party were always going to succeed...

The US and UK are home to thousands of people looking to blame someone because their lives aren't as fulfilled as they'd like...Probably brought up on James Stewart garbage and think that is life..or should be.

So along comes a guy very skilled in tapping into the frustration and hey presto The Brexit Party is thriving..

Sad thing is these People don't realise no one is a 100% happy but you either get on with it or you look for someone to blame..

I prefer to get on with it..

Voting Labour....For all its faults and leadership woes it has policies and I won't vote for Lib Dems after 2010-2015.

Lolz. My life is perfectly fulfilled and I'll be voting for the Brexit Party...probably because they support getting out of the EU, not because I want life coaching.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Fri 17 May 2019, 3:04 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The Brexit Party were always going to succeed...

The US and UK are home to thousands of people looking to blame someone because their lives aren't as fulfilled as they'd like...Probably brought up on James Stewart garbage and think that is life..or should be.

So along comes a guy very skilled in tapping into the frustration and hey presto The Brexit Party is thriving..

Sad thing is these People don't realise no one is a 100% happy but you either get on with it or you look for someone to blame..

I prefer to get on with it..

Voting Labour....For all its faults and leadership woes it has policies and I won't vote for Lib Dems after 2010-2015.
Agree with most of this.

Re. the last line - but you'd vote for Labour after Iraq? Seriously? Come on. At least the Lib Dems can say they were a minority part of the coalition at that point - they got shafted and the public, like the brain dead they mostly are, lapped it up allowing Dave's boys a free ride. Brexit and the Brexit Party fit right in and surprise me not at all.
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Post by superflyweight on Fri 17 May 2019, 4:45 pm

Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The Brexit Party were always going to succeed...

The US and UK are home to thousands of people looking to blame someone because their lives aren't as fulfilled as they'd like...Probably brought up on James Stewart garbage and think that is life..or should be.

So along comes a guy very skilled in tapping into the frustration and hey presto The Brexit Party is thriving..

Sad thing is these People don't realise no one is a 100% happy but you either get on with it or you look for someone to blame..

I prefer to get on with it..

Voting Labour....For all its faults and leadership woes it has policies and I won't vote for Lib Dems after 2010-2015.

Lolz. My life is perfectly fulfilled and I'll be voting for the Brexit Party...probably because they support getting out of the EU, not because I want life coaching.

19,000 posts on here hints at either a not completely fulfilled life or a lack of ambition.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 17 May 2019, 7:55 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The Brexit Party were always going to succeed...

The US and UK are home to thousands of people looking to blame someone because their lives aren't as fulfilled as they'd like...Probably brought up on James Stewart garbage and think that is life..or should be.

So along comes a guy very skilled in tapping into the frustration and hey presto The Brexit Party is thriving..

Sad thing is these People don't realise no one is a 100% happy but you either get on with it or you look for someone to blame..

I prefer to get on with it..

Voting Labour....For all its faults and leadership woes it has policies and I won't vote for Lib Dems after 2010-2015.
Agree with most of this.

Re. the last line - but you'd vote for Labour after Iraq? Seriously? Come on. At least the Lib Dems can say they were a minority part of the coalition at that point - they got shafted and the public, like the brain dead they mostly are, lapped it up allowing Dave's boys a free ride. Brexit and the Brexit Party fit right in and surprise me not at all.

They voted through the Tory agenda....So quite a big part of the Coalition to me...A lot of people suffering because of it.

I don't think this Labour resembles Blair's...Corbyn for all his faults voted against the War...

But we can disagree....

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Post by Pal Joey on Fri 17 May 2019, 11:22 pm

Ah democracy...

The polls here have just opened. Beautiful Saturday morning.
Think it will either be an ALP landslide (the Bob Hawke factor could be huge) of 85-90+ seats, or a comfortable 80-82 seats for Labor.
So from +4 to +6 seats above the 76 needed to win. 151 seats overall.

Currently LNP 73, ALP 69, 8 on the crossbenches.
Could end up with LNP 64, ALP 81, 6 others.... or something like that? Would be a massive historical win for Labor in Australia. The problem for LNP (Lib/Nats) is that they are on a knife-edge. Disastrous controversies one after the other... yet despite all the instability... they still run a tight ship and are more economically responsible.  It looks like they will definitely lose some seats but might also gain some from Independents. They also have preference deals with One Nation, Hanson Party less so but those types more likely to swing back to the Coalition... given the Adani Mine situation. Queensland is key... like Florida. However, Victoria is the most critical. Lose only a couple of the vacated seats... and it's all over. The seat of Chisholm is interesting - 2 Chinese-Australian women... one red, one blue... fighting it out. First time ever in Australia.

Maybe one can see Australia as a bit of a litmus test of the people's mindset on various issues. Many similar to the UK but some are unique of course.
Things can swing wildly from State to Federal campaigns. Recent by-Election results can be reversed in the space of 6 months or so due to newer issues, changing representatives, more dirt rising to the surface on certain candidates, etc...

Apologies for being off topic. I thought you guys might need a break... take your minds off all the Brexit turmoil and onto something less intense. Smile
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Post by Pal Joey on Sat 18 May 2019, 12:40 am

Snapshot from Newspoll:

Primary Vote:
LNP 38 (-1)
ALP 37 (-)

Greens 9 (-)... preferences to ALP
UAP 4 (-)... most preferences to LNP who need at least 65% of these
PHON 3 (-1)... some preferences to LNP

2PP:
ALP 51.5 (+0.5)
LNP 48.5 (-0.5)

Preferred PM
Morrison 47 (+2)
Shorten 38 (-)

Note that this 2PP represents 81 seats for the ALP; this despite a very low primary vote. LNP not much better... but they need a minimum of 40... preferably low 40s to form a government with help from Clive Palmer (UAP) and Pauline Hanson (PHON). There are about 17-18 seats on hairline margins and the LNP will need to win at least 15 of these to have any chance. So no margin for error if they start losing some of these early in the counting this evening.

Shorten is much like a Corbyn-Lite. He's not so popular with his shifty union background yet he has tried to show his human side of late.

Then Bob Hawke dies 2 days before the poll. It's all a bit surreal really. Perfect timing Bob!

I bumped into him a few years back in a restaurant in Double Bay. He gave me a friendly nod and a smile. Great vibe about the man.
Shorten, however, is no Bob Hawke even though he is desperately trying to channel the great one's attributes to his own advantage with Bob's blessing (just last week) of course. He just doesn't quite cut it in the charisma stakes. People felt they could trust Bob. Shorten not so much.

ScoMo has done a great job of trying to lead a government in turmoil. Almost single-handedly stepping up to the responsibility and leading a party falling to pieces around him to an election . Full marks for confidence and persistence...  and the straight face. The ad man in his element. More of a high energy driven salesman approach. He does come across as more alpha male than Shorten... but I have a feeling there might be too large a groundswell of discontent amongst the people and they will take a punt on change... just to break the unbearable monotony of the status quo.
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Post by alfie on Sat 18 May 2019, 1:09 am

A week ago I was thinking it could be an ALP landslide... Lately there seems to have been a bit of a move back to the Coalition. Though its all a bit fuzzy really...
If Shorten were Hawke it would be no contest : but he doesn't have that popular appeal ,as you say , Pal Joey.
Agree though that the governing mob just have too many narrow majorities to defend and too few chances to gain (really just Tasmania , no ?) - and the redistributions haven't helped their cause. So I fancy an ALP win (with the upper house still controlled by the menagerie of crossbenchers)

If it is close though we might not even get a result tonight : everyone I know seems to have sent in a postal vote or one of those early voting stations so the count may well be delayed .

Should mean a shorter queue at the local school I suppose ? Might be a few sausages unsold this morning Smile

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Post by Pal Joey on Sat 18 May 2019, 1:26 am

There's a long queue at Moonee Ponds I see, Alfie. Smile

I'm just about to go and get my democracy sausage.
I expect to have to run the gauntlet through the pamphlet people. I usually treat everyone equally and take their 'How to Votes' with a smile and a knowing nod. Keep 'em guessing, right?
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Post by alfie on Sat 18 May 2019, 1:52 am

Yeah. Whatever their politics the how to vote card carriers are dedicated enough to stand out in all weathers smiling at voters and I agree they deserve a bit of courtesy - and no overt discouragement . An answering smile costs us nothing...

Apologies for hijacking the Brexit thread , UK residents : but in truth there isn't anything happening on that front except more can-kicking , is there ?

Normal service can resume Smile

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Post by Pal Joey on Sat 18 May 2019, 2:18 am

Just back. Went smoothly. A little low key where I am. People in the queue looked a bit tired. Only waited 10-15 minutes.
I struggled to number 6 Senate positions above the line however. Numbering 12 below is really splitting hairs... I'd still be there if I did that.
How'd you go, alfie?
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Post by alfie on Sat 18 May 2019, 3:18 am

Going to leave it until after lunch , myself. Contemplating 12 below but perhaps that will be too much...

Question : if you vote Green is it compulsory to take a "vegan sausage substitute " ?

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Post by Pal Joey on Sat 18 May 2019, 4:14 am

Laugh Cooked by wind power? I kind of like the burnt charcoal effect... although I don't mind some sort of a mix of fossils & renewables.

I had a quick 3 second chat with the Greens bloke near the gates. Seemed friendly enough... heart in the right place.
However, he still couldn't tell me how much the carbon credits will cost (and from where!) for a vegan burger instead of 100% pure Aussie beef one.
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Post by alfie on Sat 18 May 2019, 5:34 am

Ha. No queue this afternoon ...but I discovered why most vote in the morning : they had run out of sausages !

Even the vegan ones...

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Post by Pr4wn on Sat 18 May 2019, 7:08 am

Just go to Bunnings?

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Post by alfie on Sat 18 May 2019, 1:10 pm

Opinion Polls as useless here as in the US and the UK , it seems...

LNP government now appears certain to be returned , though they may need a couple of crossbencher's support. Probably wont know the final result for a day or two because of the sheer number of pre-poll votes cast ; but it's a total disaster for the ALP.

They - we - underestimated the contrariness of Queenslanders . Though in truth the results everywhere are light years away from all predictions. Must admit this result has rather shocked me ...

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Sat 18 May 2019, 2:03 pm

Pal Joey wrote:Snapshot from Newspoll:

Primary Vote:
LNP 38 (-1)
ALP 37 (-)

Greens 9 (-)... preferences to ALP
UAP 4 (-)... most preferences to LNP who need at least 65% of these
PHON 3 (-1)... some preferences to LNP

2PP:
ALP 51.5 (+0.5)
LNP 48.5 (-0.5)

Preferred PM
Morrison 47 (+2)
Shorten 38 (-)

Note that this 2PP represents 81 seats for the ALP; this despite a very low primary vote. LNP not much better... but they need a minimum of 40... preferably low 40s to form a government with help from Clive Palmer (UAP) and Pauline Hanson (PHON). There are about 17-18 seats on hairline margins and the LNP will need to win at least 15 of these to have any chance. So no margin for error if they start losing some of these early in the counting this evening.

Shorten is much like a Corbyn-Lite. He's not so popular with his shifty union background yet he has tried to show his human side of late.

Then Bob Hawke dies 2 days before the poll. It's all a bit surreal really. Perfect timing Bob!

I bumped into him a few years back in a restaurant in Double Bay. He gave me a friendly nod and a smile. Great vibe about the man.
Shorten, however, is no Bob Hawke even though he is desperately trying to channel the great one's attributes to his own advantage with Bob's blessing (just last week) of course. He just doesn't quite cut it in the charisma stakes. People felt they could trust Bob. Shorten not so much.

ScoMo has done a great job of trying to lead a government in turmoil. Almost single-handedly stepping up to the responsibility and leading a party falling to pieces around him to an election . Full marks for confidence and persistence...  and the straight face. The ad man in his element. More of a high energy driven salesman approach. He does come across as more alpha male than Shorten... but I have a feeling there might be too large a groundswell of discontent amongst the people and they will take a punt on change... just to break the unbearable monotony of the status quo.

Excellent post...

My biggest memory of Hawke was when he got kicked out some journalist asked him what he was going to do next ??

"Well right now I'm going to go and get completely p***ed"

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Post by navyblueshorts on Sat 18 May 2019, 2:20 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The Brexit Party were always going to succeed...

The US and UK are home to thousands of people looking to blame someone because their lives aren't as fulfilled as they'd like...Probably brought up on James Stewart garbage and think that is life..or should be.

So along comes a guy very skilled in tapping into the frustration and hey presto The Brexit Party is thriving..

Sad thing is these People don't realise no one is a 100% happy but you either get on with it or you look for someone to blame..

I prefer to get on with it..

Voting Labour....For all its faults and leadership woes it has policies and I won't vote for Lib Dems after 2010-2015.
Agree with most of this.

Re. the last line - but you'd vote for Labour after Iraq? Seriously? Come on. At least the Lib Dems can say they were a minority part of the coalition at that point - they got shafted and the public, like the brain dead they mostly are, lapped it up allowing Dave's boys a free ride. Brexit and the Brexit Party fit right in and surprise me not at all.

They voted through the Tory agenda....So quite a big part of the Coalition to me...A lot of people suffering because of it.

I don't think this Labour resembles Blair's...Corbyn for all his faults voted against the War...

But we can disagree....
We do. I'd call the above a form of hypocrisy Cool . I'd suggest you're an inherent Labour supporter at heart, and therefore probably don't apply the same rules to all parties equally...
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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Sat 18 May 2019, 2:33 pm

That’s why the BBQ at football today didn’t get much business, everyone had had their snags voting.

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