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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 14 Mar 2019, 9:02 pm

First topic message reminder :

Duty281 wrote:So a good day for the Prime Minister, at last. Motion carried and some pesky amendments defeated.


Yes folks a good day for the PM is telling the Country over 50 times in the Commons the UK is leaving on the 29th March and then winning an extension..

What a low bar..

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Post by Samo on Fri 24 May 2019, 12:53 pm

I'd take that bet.

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Post by Duty281 on Sun 26 May 2019, 5:53 pm

Interesting to note that Airbus will be remaining in the UK.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/aviation/news/airbus-now-wants-to-remain-in-uk-regardless-of-brexit-outcome/

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Post by SecretFly on Mon 27 May 2019, 11:02 am

lostinwales wrote:


As the line goes - not all brexiteers are racists, but practically all racists will be brexiteers..

Hmmmm.  I think I'd have a very hot and heavy bet on the idea too that practically all racists will be avid and passionate supporters of Team UK at the next Olympics.

Perhaps that grim truth is indeed the kind of line in the sand needed now for progressive British liberals to disown Team UK as a divisive, insular and racist platform for dangerous Nationalistic fervour?

Let's instead have Team World - where we all get to wear the one uniform, hoist the one flag and win gold, silver and bronze in all events!   Brill! Yahoo Wink

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Post by Pr4wn on Mon 27 May 2019, 2:24 pm

SecretFly wrote:
lostinwales wrote:


As the line goes - not all brexiteers are racists, but practically all racists will be brexiteers..

Hmmmm.  I think I'd have a very hot and heavy bet on the idea too that practically all racists will be avid and passionate supporters of Team UK at the next Olympics.

Perhaps that grim truth is indeed the kind of line in the sand needed now for progressive British liberals to disown Team UK as a divisive, insular and racist platform for dangerous Nationalistic fervour?

Let's instead have Team World - where we all get to wear the one uniform, hoist the one flag and win gold, silver and bronze in all events!   Brill! Yahoo Wink

Is this supposed to be funny? Headscratch

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Post by SecretFly on Mon 27 May 2019, 2:33 pm

You're repeating yourself. It's an old trick.

Just admit it...nobody is falling for the old 'racist' stuff anymore.

The slur needs a new engine.

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Post by Pr4wn on Mon 27 May 2019, 3:19 pm

SecretFly wrote:You're repeating yourself.  It's an old trick.

Just admit it...nobody is falling for the old 'racist' stuff anymore.

The slur needs a new engine.

Who are you talking to?

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Post by SecretFly on Mon 27 May 2019, 3:23 pm

Is he talking to me?

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Post by SecretFly on Mon 27 May 2019, 3:39 pm

Anyway, don't worry too much, anti-Brexiteers.

They kind of expected it but were still caught a little unprepared. Yet all that will change over the next few days as the establishment media collect themselves and get back to the propaganda war.

Before long we'll have more exposes of Farage as a child, his past friends remembering that he often watched Battle of the Bulge as a 13 year old and was heard cheering on Robert Shaw and his uber sexy Tiger Tanks.

And of course in time the Brexit party vote will be miraculously calculated as an overwhelming expressed conviction by the British people to remain firmly inside the EU and as an endorsement of Guy Verhofstadt as next British Prime Minister.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Mon 27 May 2019, 5:00 pm

SecretFly wrote:Anyway, don't worry too much, anti-Brexiteers.

They kind of expected it but were still caught a little unprepared.  Yet all that will change over the next few days as the establishment media collect themselves and get back to the propaganda war.

Before long we'll have more exposes of Farage as a child, his past friends remembering that he often watched Battle of the Bulge as a 13 year old and was heard cheering on Robert Shaw and his uber sexy Tiger Tanks.

And of course in time the Brexit party vote will be miraculously calculated as an overwhelming expressed conviction by the British people to remain firmly inside the EU and as an endorsement of Guy Verhofstadt as next British Prime Minister.
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Post by Samo on Mon 27 May 2019, 5:34 pm

SecretFly wrote:Anyway, don't worry too much, anti-Brexiteers.

They kind of expected it but were still caught a little unprepared.  Yet all that will change over the next few days as the establishment media collect themselves and get back to the propaganda war.

Before long we'll have more exposes of Farage as a child, his past friends remembering that he often watched Battle of the Bulge as a 13 year old and was heard cheering on Robert Shaw and his uber sexy Tiger Tanks.

And of course in time the Brexit party vote will be miraculously calculated as an overwhelming expressed conviction by the British people to remain firmly inside the EU and as an endorsement of Guy Verhofstadt as next British Prime Minister.

Have a day off mate.

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Post by SecretFly on Mon 27 May 2019, 5:48 pm

Ha Ha!  Yis are mad because I uncovered the plot to install Verhofstadt as Prime Minister.

Don't be so sore.  There is obviously a mole operating inside the Conservatives that fed me the news.  Gove might be the culprit but I ain't saying.

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Post by CaledonianCraig on Mon 27 May 2019, 8:30 pm

SecretFly wrote:Ha Ha!  Yis are mad because I uncovered the plot to install Verhofstadt as Prime Minister.

Don't be so sore.  There is obviously a mole operating inside the Conservatives that fed me the news.  Gove might be the culprit but I ain't saying.

A mole - small hairy creature who is blind and Tory. My money is on David Mundell.
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon 27 May 2019, 8:55 pm

Don't think there is any great love for the SNP in Scotland..

Survation..(Independence poll)

Yes 36
No 55

Just think the Scottish people are sick to death of Westminster paralysis...

SNP being a remain Party....Means the Lib Dems have no selling point there..


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Post by CaledonianCraig on Tue 28 May 2019, 12:12 am

Depends which polls you wish to go by:-

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/27/scottish-independence-yes-vote-climbs-49
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 28 May 2019, 11:16 am

So after the European parliament elections, we know that 8% of the electorate voted for a party advocating a hard Brexit, and that the UK parliament (which it turns out is sovereign after all!) won't allow that to happen in a month of Sundays.

Impasse means impasse.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 28 May 2019, 11:18 am

Kit Malthouse and Jeremy Hunt have both spoken of renegotiating a deal with the EU - expect other Tory leadership candidates to follow suit. It boggles the mind.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 11:40 am

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:So after the European parliament elections, we know that 8% of the electorate voted for a party advocating a hard Brexit, and that the UK parliament (which it turns out is sovereign after all!) won't allow that to happen in a month of Sundays.

Impasse means impasse.

I wonder how you'll react when we actually leave with no-deal, and actually regain supremacy of law-making power (which is actual sovereignty).

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 28 May 2019, 11:48 am

We've discussed this before, Duty. Parliament won't allow a no-deal Brexit to happen without consulting the people about it.

The country voted 52% to leave, 48% to remain. The problem, then as now, is that a vote for Brexit was a vote for whatever kind of Brexit you liked, and inevitably - inevitably - Brexit was going to have to be a single, definite thing. And there's no agreement among the 52% (if it is still 52%) what that should be. I can't see there ever being agreement on that.

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Post by superflyweight on Tue 28 May 2019, 11:55 am

I expect we'll all lose our sh1t when we see a properly curved banana again.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 12:02 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:We've discussed this before, Duty. Parliament won't allow a no-deal Brexit to happen without consulting the people about it.

Yes, and it isn't something I agree with. The next Tory leader knows the equation is simple - no-deal exit on October 31st, or watch their party be swallowed up by Nigel Farage and his eclectic band. I suspect the next Tory leader will try to renegotiate, but I can't see there being any significant room to manoeuvre.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 28 May 2019, 12:11 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:We've discussed this before, Duty. Parliament won't allow a no-deal Brexit to happen without consulting the people about it.

Yes, and it isn't something I agree with. The next Tory leader knows the equation is simple - no-deal exit on October 31st, or watch their party be swallowed up by Nigel Farage and his eclectic band.

But they still won't have the numbers in parliament. We're stuck whoever they appoint.

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Post by dyrewolfe on Tue 28 May 2019, 1:23 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Kit Malthouse and Jeremy Hunt have both spoken of renegotiating a deal with the EU - expect other Tory leadership candidates to follow suit. It boggles the mind.


It certainly does when the EU have stated they are not up for re-opening negotiations. The only deal they will accept is the one negotiated by the PM.

Plus the EU have enough on their plates as it is, with several countries having elections and the rise of far-right, populist groups, eating into the centrist majority.


Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
We've discussed this before, Duty. Parliament won't allow a no-deal Brexit to happen without consulting the people about it.

The country voted 52% to leave, 48% to remain. The problem, then as now, is that a vote for Brexit was a vote for whatever kind of Brexit you liked, and inevitably - inevitably - Brexit was going to have to be a single, definite thing. And there's no agreement among the 52% (if it is still 52%) what that should be. I can't see there ever being agreement on that.

No deal is currently the default position, unless someone can somehow convince a majority in Parliament to vote for Theresa May's deal.

The EU are under no obligation to re-open negotiations and have repeatedly expressed they have no intention of doing so. Either we sign up to the withdrawal agreement, or we're cut loose.

Thats why hardline Brexiteers are quite happy to run the clock down.

While its not impossible the for the EU to change their minds, it would be one hell of a U-turn. Especially considering they may see the UK as a rotten apple, that may sour the barrel, if we stay in.

Parliament may end up having very little say in the matter...especially if they continue their futile dithering and arguing.
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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 28 May 2019, 1:36 pm

Without some sort of re-negotiation, there will be a hard border between Ireland and NI in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Hardline Brexiteers, who don't care about this, are indeed quite happy to run the clock down.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:03 pm

dyrewolfe wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Kit Malthouse and Jeremy Hunt have both spoken of renegotiating a deal with the EU - expect other Tory leadership candidates to follow suit. It boggles the mind.


It certainly does when the EU have stated they are not up for re-opening negotiations. The only deal they will accept is the one negotiated by the PM.

Plus the EU have enough on their plates as it is, with several countries having elections and the rise of far-right, populist groups, eating into the centrist majority.


Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
We've discussed this before, Duty. Parliament won't allow a no-deal Brexit to happen without consulting the people about it.

The country voted 52% to leave, 48% to remain. The problem, then as now, is that a vote for Brexit was a vote for whatever kind of Brexit you liked, and inevitably - inevitably - Brexit was going to have to be a single, definite thing. And there's no agreement among the 52% (if it is still 52%) what that should be. I can't see there ever being agreement on that.

No deal is currently the default position, unless someone can somehow convince a majority in Parliament to vote for Theresa May's deal.

The EU are under no obligation to re-open negotiations and have repeatedly expressed they have no intention of doing so. Either we sign up to the withdrawal agreement, or we're cut loose.

Thats why hardline Brexiteers are quite happy to run the clock down.

While its not impossible the for the EU to change their minds, it would be one hell of a U-turn. Especially considering they may see the UK as a rotten apple, that may sour the barrel, if we stay in.

Parliament may end up having very little say in the matter...especially if they continue their futile dithering and arguing.

I'm aware that No Deal is the default position. That still doesn't Parliament will allow it to happen. There are plenty of Tory MPs who wouldn't stand for No Deal, never mind MPs of other parties.


Last edited by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:13 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by GSC on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:13 pm

Dont agree with Hunt on much, but no deal is electoral suicide for the Tories
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Post by SecretFly on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:40 pm

How come it's only the 'bad' 'far' right bootboys that get tagged with the supposed negatively hued "populist" handle?

Don't all political movements chase the populist territory? What are the Greens exploiting? The populist swelling of collective emotions on climate change, plastic pollution, flora and fauna extinction threats etc. That's their populist basecamp. What do the Lib Dems chase? The populist territory where Brexit represents negative zenophobic isolationism tinged with all kinds of anti social 'phobias'. That is a populist concept, every bit as prominent and alive in the chattering multi media networks as anything espoused by the "nutters" on the 'far' right.

It's the two traditional big parties that are suffering most in trying to appeal to all divergent populist competitors at once. "We're the only party that agrees with all of you...in a way....kinda....maybe....."

Populist trendsetters of all persuasions despise politically expedient fudge-speak.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:44 pm

No deal and steer the ship for a couple of years is the only way out of electoral oblivion for the Tories.

From what I've seen so far, the million pound question isn't being asked of the long list of Tory candidates - if it comes down to a straight choice, revoke article 50 or go ahead with no deal, what will you do?

In the Telegraph today, Jeremy Hunt has hinted it would be the latter, but he also says his main aim is to reenter negotiations...this is a very unlikely option! And even if the EU did reopen negotiations, there would be no significant change in the deal, as Theresa found out multiple times.

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:48 pm

Duty281 wrote:No deal and steer the ship for a couple of years is the only way out of electoral oblivion for the Tories.

From what I've seen so far, the million pound question isn't being asked of the long list of Tory candidates - if it comes down to a straight choice, revoke article 50 or go ahead with no deal, what will you do?

In the Telegraph today, Jeremy Hunt has hinted it would be the latter, but he also says his main aim is to reenter negotiations...this is a very unlikely option! And even if the EU did reopen negotiations, there would be no significant change in the deal, as Theresa found out multiple times.

She couldn't even get the backstop changed, which you pretty much said would be really easy to do.
Presumably you at least agree that negotiations would need to be re-opened to avoid a hard border?

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Post by dyrewolfe on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:50 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
dyrewolfe wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Kit Malthouse and Jeremy Hunt have both spoken of renegotiating a deal with the EU - expect other Tory leadership candidates to follow suit. It boggles the mind.


It certainly does when the EU have stated they are not up for re-opening negotiations. The only deal they will accept is the one negotiated by the PM.

Plus the EU have enough on their plates as it is, with several countries having elections and the rise of far-right, populist groups, eating into the centrist majority.


Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
We've discussed this before, Duty. Parliament won't allow a no-deal Brexit to happen without consulting the people about it.

The country voted 52% to leave, 48% to remain. The problem, then as now, is that a vote for Brexit was a vote for whatever kind of Brexit you liked, and inevitably - inevitably - Brexit was going to have to be a single, definite thing. And there's no agreement among the 52% (if it is still 52%) what that should be. I can't see there ever being agreement on that.

No deal is currently the default position, unless someone can somehow convince a majority in Parliament to vote for Theresa May's deal.

The EU are under no obligation to re-open negotiations and have repeatedly expressed they have no intention of doing so. Either we sign up to the withdrawal agreement, or we're cut loose.

Thats why hardline Brexiteers are quite happy to run the clock down.

While its not impossible the for the EU to change their minds, it would be one hell of a U-turn. Especially considering they may see the UK as a rotten apple, that may sour the barrel, if we stay in.

Parliament may end up having very little say in the matter...especially if they continue their futile dithering and arguing.

I'm aware that No Deal is the default position. That still doesn't Parliament will allow it to happen. There are plenty of Tory MPs who wouldn't stand for No Deal, never mind MPs of other parties.

They haven't stood for it for the best part of 3 years now... Rolling Eyes

As usual its easier to procrastinate and avoid standing for something, than to take a position, even if it goes against your personal beliefs, or risks making you unpopular.

What makes you think Parliament will finally get its act together in 5 months? The PM tried to tell them 3 times that it was her deal or nothing (there is no renegotiation unless the EU says so). They also rejected a plethora of options for moving the process forward.

Everyone is so wedded to their ideals, they are blinded to the reality of the situation. I don't see that changing any time soon, unless Parliament has some sudden collective epiphany.
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Post by SecretFly on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:56 pm

Why care about Parties btw? Why should anybody care whether Labour or Conservatives survive or not? Isn't it simply about which politicians honestly want Brexit (means Brexit) and which of them don't. If that glaring black and white choice is the truth about where the UK now stands at the beginning of the 21st century, then let the resetting of political allegiances compense in good faith. If that means the effective end of a 'Party' or two then so be it. The people who populated such parties still exist and still vote.... new parties emerge to capture a UK evolving into a new age.

The way the parties manage to make themselves more important than the issues that are debated always amuses me. So the Tories would commit suicide by backing a no-deal Brexit. So what? The people who will leave them will still be out there voting for the alternative parties with alternative world views. In short, if needs be, the Lib Dems would be consumed by deserting Conservates (or perhaps deserting Labour supporters). And soon enough Lib Dems become Conservatives (or Labour) in all but name. The world moves on and disgruntled Conservates have found themselves a new 21st century home................., the poor Lib Dems reduced to rent paying tenants in their very own house Wink

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:02 pm

dyrewolfe wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
dyrewolfe wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Kit Malthouse and Jeremy Hunt have both spoken of renegotiating a deal with the EU - expect other Tory leadership candidates to follow suit. It boggles the mind.


It certainly does when the EU have stated they are not up for re-opening negotiations. The only deal they will accept is the one negotiated by the PM.

Plus the EU have enough on their plates as it is, with several countries having elections and the rise of far-right, populist groups, eating into the centrist majority.


Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
We've discussed this before, Duty. Parliament won't allow a no-deal Brexit to happen without consulting the people about it.

The country voted 52% to leave, 48% to remain. The problem, then as now, is that a vote for Brexit was a vote for whatever kind of Brexit you liked, and inevitably - inevitably - Brexit was going to have to be a single, definite thing. And there's no agreement among the 52% (if it is still 52%) what that should be. I can't see there ever being agreement on that.

No deal is currently the default position, unless someone can somehow convince a majority in Parliament to vote for Theresa May's deal.

The EU are under no obligation to re-open negotiations and have repeatedly expressed they have no intention of doing so. Either we sign up to the withdrawal agreement, or we're cut loose.

Thats why hardline Brexiteers are quite happy to run the clock down.

While its not impossible the for the EU to change their minds, it would be one hell of a U-turn. Especially considering they may see the UK as a rotten apple, that may sour the barrel, if we stay in.

Parliament may end up having very little say in the matter...especially if they continue their futile dithering and arguing.

I'm aware that No Deal is the default position. That still doesn't Parliament will allow it to happen. There are plenty of Tory MPs who wouldn't stand for No Deal, never mind MPs of other parties.

They haven't stood for it for the best part of 3 years now... Rolling Eyes

As usual its easier to procrastinate and avoid standing for something, than to take a position, even if it goes against your personal beliefs, or risks making you unpopular.

What makes you think Parliament will finally get its act together in 5 months? The PM tried to tell them 3 times that it was her deal or nothing (there is no renegotiation unless the EU says so). They also rejected a plethora of options for moving the process forward.

Everyone is so wedded to their ideals, they are blinded to the reality of the situation. I don't see that changing any time soon, unless Parliament has some sudden collective epiphany.

This is why I see a people's vote or second referendum as inevitable. Duty's right that the Tories will be even more terrified now at the prospect of a general election, but if they try to 'run down the clock' (I'm getting tired of hearing that) and leave with no deal, then it's likely they'll face a vote of no confidence - which raises the prospect of the election they want to avoid. So it's back to the people.

In case anyone hadn't guessed, I'm a remainer. But ignore remainers for now - even leavers can't agree what Brexit should look like.


Last edited by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:04 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:No deal and steer the ship for a couple of years is the only way out of electoral oblivion for the Tories.

From what I've seen so far, the million pound question isn't being asked of the long list of Tory candidates - if it comes down to a straight choice, revoke article 50 or go ahead with no deal, what will you do?

In the Telegraph today, Jeremy Hunt has hinted it would be the latter, but he also says his main aim is to reenter negotiations...this is a very unlikely option! And even if the EU did reopen negotiations, there would be no significant change in the deal, as Theresa found out multiple times.

She couldn't even get the backstop changed, which you pretty much said would be really easy to do.
Presumably you at least agree that negotiations would need to be re-opened to avoid a hard border?

Never said that, the usual misrepresentation strikes. We're not having a hard border, no one wants it.

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Post by dyrewolfe on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:05 pm

SecretFly wrote:How come it's only the 'bad' 'far' right bootboys that get tagged with the supposed negatively hued "populist" handle?

Don't all political movements chase the populist territory?  What are the Greens exploiting?  The populist swelling of collective emotions on climate change, plastic pollution, flora and fauna extinction threats etc.  That's their populist basecamp.  What do the Lib Dems chase?  The populist territory where Brexit represents negative zenophobic isolationism tinged with all kinds of anti social 'phobias'.  That is a populist concept, every bit as prominent and alive in the chattering multi media networks as anything espoused by the "nutters" on the 'far' right.

It's the two traditional big parties that are suffering most in trying to appeal to all divergent populist competitors at once.  "We're the only party that agrees with all of you...in a way....kinda....maybe....."

Populist trendsetters of all persuasions despise politically expedient fudge-speak.

Well put! thumbsup

I've always maintained the Remainers have been equally guilty of this with "Project Fear" - basically trying to scare people into voting for them.

For what its worth, I thought the original referendum campaign was shockingly bad on both sides, but the Remainers definitely took the low ground by trying to characterise Leavers as racists, xenophobes, uninformed idiots and pretty much everything short of calling them Nazis.

Also agree that the Conservatives & Labour messed up big time by trying to treat Brexit as a normal political issue, thinking there was some sort of middle ground to be had. To be fair to the government, I think the deal they negotiated was pretty good...apart from the backstop arrangement.

At this point I think Parliament should give its collective head a shake and agree to it, trusting the EU to honour its commitment to "best endeavours" to resolve the NI border problem...but I can understand why some of the Euro-sceptics find it unpalatable.

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:08 pm

Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:No deal and steer the ship for a couple of years is the only way out of electoral oblivion for the Tories.

From what I've seen so far, the million pound question isn't being asked of the long list of Tory candidates - if it comes down to a straight choice, revoke article 50 or go ahead with no deal, what will you do?

In the Telegraph today, Jeremy Hunt has hinted it would be the latter, but he also says his main aim is to reenter negotiations...this is a very unlikely option! And even if the EU did reopen negotiations, there would be no significant change in the deal, as Theresa found out multiple times.

She couldn't even get the backstop changed, which you pretty much said would be really easy to do.
Presumably you at least agree that negotiations would need to be re-opened to avoid a hard border?

Never said that, the usual misrepresentation strikes. We're not having a hard border, no one wants it.

If no-one wants it, then surely it will be really easy to change. That was what I thought you were saying, but I guess I was wrong.

So how will it be avoided without the 'very unlikely option' of renegotiating with the EU?

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:10 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:No deal and steer the ship for a couple of years is the only way out of electoral oblivion for the Tories.

From what I've seen so far, the million pound question isn't being asked of the long list of Tory candidates - if it comes down to a straight choice, revoke article 50 or go ahead with no deal, what will you do?

In the Telegraph today, Jeremy Hunt has hinted it would be the latter, but he also says his main aim is to reenter negotiations...this is a very unlikely option! And even if the EU did reopen negotiations, there would be no significant change in the deal, as Theresa found out multiple times.

She couldn't even get the backstop changed, which you pretty much said would be really easy to do.
Presumably you at least agree that negotiations would need to be re-opened to avoid a hard border?

Never said that, the usual misrepresentation strikes. We're not having a hard border, no one wants it.

If no-one wants it, then surely it will be really easy to change. That was what I thought you were saying, but I guess I was wrong.

So how will it be avoided without the 'very unlikely option' of renegotiating with the EU?

We're leaving without a deal, renegotiation or no renegotiation.

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:15 pm

Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:No deal and steer the ship for a couple of years is the only way out of electoral oblivion for the Tories.

From what I've seen so far, the million pound question isn't being asked of the long list of Tory candidates - if it comes down to a straight choice, revoke article 50 or go ahead with no deal, what will you do?

In the Telegraph today, Jeremy Hunt has hinted it would be the latter, but he also says his main aim is to reenter negotiations...this is a very unlikely option! And even if the EU did reopen negotiations, there would be no significant change in the deal, as Theresa found out multiple times.

She couldn't even get the backstop changed, which you pretty much said would be really easy to do.
Presumably you at least agree that negotiations would need to be re-opened to avoid a hard border?

Never said that, the usual misrepresentation strikes. We're not having a hard border, no one wants it.

If no-one wants it, then surely it will be really easy to change. That was what I thought you were saying, but I guess I was wrong.

So how will it be avoided without the 'very unlikely option' of renegotiating with the EU?

We're leaving without a deal, renegotiation or no renegotiation.

I see, and how will the hard border be avoided without the 'very unlikely option' of renegotiating with the EU?

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Post by superflyweight on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:16 pm

SecretFly wrote:How come it's only the 'bad' 'far' right bootboys that get tagged with the supposed negatively hued "populist" handle?

Don't all political movements chase the populist territory?  What are the Greens exploiting?  The populist swelling of collective emotions on climate change, plastic pollution, flora and fauna extinction threats etc.  That's their populist basecamp.  What do the Lib Dems chase?  The populist territory where Brexit represents negative zenophobic isolationism tinged with all kinds of anti social 'phobias'.  That is a populist concept, every bit as prominent and alive in the chattering multi media networks as anything espoused by the "nutters" on the 'far' right.

It's the two traditional big parties that are suffering most in trying to appeal to all divergent populist competitors at once.  "We're the only party that agrees with all of you...in a way....kinda....maybe....."

Populist trendsetters of all persuasions despise politically expedient fudge-speak.

I think you're confusing the concept of populism with the concept of popularity.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:20 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:No deal and steer the ship for a couple of years is the only way out of electoral oblivion for the Tories.

From what I've seen so far, the million pound question isn't being asked of the long list of Tory candidates - if it comes down to a straight choice, revoke article 50 or go ahead with no deal, what will you do?

In the Telegraph today, Jeremy Hunt has hinted it would be the latter, but he also says his main aim is to reenter negotiations...this is a very unlikely option! And even if the EU did reopen negotiations, there would be no significant change in the deal, as Theresa found out multiple times.

She couldn't even get the backstop changed, which you pretty much said would be really easy to do.
Presumably you at least agree that negotiations would need to be re-opened to avoid a hard border?

Never said that, the usual misrepresentation strikes. We're not having a hard border, no one wants it.

If no-one wants it, then surely it will be really easy to change. That was what I thought you were saying, but I guess I was wrong.

So how will it be avoided without the 'very unlikely option' of renegotiating with the EU?

We're leaving without a deal, renegotiation or no renegotiation.

I see, and how will the hard border be avoided without the 'very unlikely option' of renegotiating with the EU?

Because no one wants a hard border. That's why the UK and Ireland made steps towards maintaining the common travel area by signing a deal earlier this month to retain citizens' rights of travel between the two countries after Brexit.

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:23 pm

No, I think you're allowing yourself the indulgence of hoping they mean two separate things. They don't. It's just the old political rabbit in the hat trick.....

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:23 pm

So as things currently stand, if we left tomorrow, without any further negotiations with the EU, a no deal brexit would not mean a hard border? Is that correct?
Because everything I've read from all sides indicates the contrary.

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Post by dyrewolfe on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:24 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
This is why I see a people's vote or second referendum as inevitable. Duty's right that the Tories will be even more terrified now at the prospect of a general election, but if they try to 'run down the clock' (I'm getting tired of hearing that) and leave with no deal, then it's likely they'll face a vote of no confidence - which raises the prospect of the election they want to avoid. So it's back to the people.

In case anyone hadn't guessed, I'm a remainer. But ignore remainers for now - even leavers can't agree what Brexit should look like.

Except Parliament already rejected that idea once (along with everything else).

Granted they may get a renewed sense of urgency now, but frankly at this point I wouldn't trust them to organise a drinking session if they were all locked inside a pub.

Much as I hate the idea, as it goes against my sense of democracy (i.e. the original vote should be respected) I don't actually see another way forward.
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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:24 pm

SecretFly wrote:No, I think you're allowing yourself the indulgence of hoping they mean two separate things.  They don't.  It's just the old political rabbit in the hat trick.....

Who scored the hat trick?

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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:25 pm

dyrewolfe wrote:
SecretFly wrote:How come it's only the 'bad' 'far' right bootboys that get tagged with the supposed negatively hued "populist" handle?

Don't all political movements chase the populist territory?  What are the Greens exploiting?  The populist swelling of collective emotions on climate change, plastic pollution, flora and fauna extinction threats etc.  That's their populist basecamp.  What do the Lib Dems chase?  The populist territory where Brexit represents negative zenophobic isolationism tinged with all kinds of anti social 'phobias'.  That is a populist concept, every bit as prominent and alive in the chattering multi media networks as anything espoused by the "nutters" on the 'far' right.

It's the two traditional big parties that are suffering most in trying to appeal to all divergent populist competitors at once.  "We're the only party that agrees with all of you...in a way....kinda....maybe....."

Populist trendsetters of all persuasions despise politically expedient fudge-speak.

Well put! thumbsup

I've always maintained the Remainers have been equally guilty of this with "Project Fear" - basically trying to scare people into voting for them

For what its worth, I thought the original referendum campaign was shockingly bad on both sides, but the Remainers definitely took the low ground by trying to characterise Leavers as racists, xenophobes, uninformed idiots and pretty much everything short of calling them Nazis.

Also agree that the Conservatives & Labour messed up big time by trying to treat Brexit as a normal political issue, thinking there was some sort of middle ground to be had. To be fair to the government, I think the deal they negotiated was pretty good...apart from the backstop arrangement.

At this point I think Parliament should give its collective head a shake and agree to it, trusting the EU to honour its commitment to "best endeavours" to resolve the NI border problem...but I can understand why some of the Euro-sceptics find it unpalatable.


Eh, I found the actual racism and breaking of electoral law to be the low ground

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Post by GSC on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:27 pm

I think you can respect the original vote while accepting it didnt really define how the UK would end up leaving.
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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:29 pm

GSC wrote:I think you can respect the original vote while accepting it didnt really define how the UK would end up leaving.

True. Why can't there be a referendum on no deal vs May's/EU's deal?

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Post by superflyweight on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:29 pm

They don't mean the same thing (although interesting to note that disputing the meaning of words is a known trait of prominent populists).  

If you try to use the words in the same context then you can quite quickly see that it's nonsense to suggest that they mean the same thing: -

"Secretfly tried so desperately to be funny in order to be popular".

"Secretfly tried so desperately to be funny in order to be a populist".

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Post by CaledonianCraig on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:30 pm

Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:No deal and steer the ship for a couple of years is the only way out of electoral oblivion for the Tories.

From what I've seen so far, the million pound question isn't being asked of the long list of Tory candidates - if it comes down to a straight choice, revoke article 50 or go ahead with no deal, what will you do?

In the Telegraph today, Jeremy Hunt has hinted it would be the latter, but he also says his main aim is to reenter negotiations...this is a very unlikely option! And even if the EU did reopen negotiations, there would be no significant change in the deal, as Theresa found out multiple times.

She couldn't even get the backstop changed, which you pretty much said would be really easy to do.
Presumably you at least agree that negotiations would need to be re-opened to avoid a hard border?

Never said that, the usual misrepresentation strikes. We're not having a hard border, no one wants it.

If no-one wants it, then surely it will be really easy to change. That was what I thought you were saying, but I guess I was wrong.

So how will it be avoided without the 'very unlikely option' of renegotiating with the EU?

We're leaving without a deal, renegotiation or no renegotiation.

I see, and how will the hard border be avoided without the 'very unlikely option' of renegotiating with the EU?

Because no one wants a hard border. That's why the UK and Ireland made steps towards maintaining the common travel area by signing a deal earlier this month to retain citizens' rights of travel between the two countries after Brexit.

Many political situations arose such as wars that nobody wants. Plenty in this world is unavoidable.


Last edited by CaledonianCraig on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:31 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
GSC wrote:I think you can respect the original vote while accepting it didnt really define how the UK would end up leaving.

True. Why can't there be a referendum on no deal vs May's/EU's deal?

I wouldn't have a problem with that. I wouldn't like it either, but some things you have to accept.


Last edited by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:41 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:40 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:So as things currently stand, if we left tomorrow, without any further negotiations with the EU, a no deal brexit would not mean a hard border? Is that correct?
Because everything I've read from all sides indicates the contrary.

Correct.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 3:41 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
GSC wrote:I think you can respect the original vote while accepting it didnt really define how the UK would end up leaving.

True. Why can't there be a referendum on no deal vs May's/EU's deal?

No Deal v May's deal would be absolutely fine, if I could trust Parliament to deliver on the result!

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