ICC Cricket World Cup - Part 2

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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 11 Jun 2019, 4:48 am

First topic message reminder :

Table

New Zealand5 9 1.591
England581.862
Australia580.812
India471.029
Bangladesh55-0.27
Sri Lanka54-1.778
West Indies530.272
South Africa53-0.193
Pakistan53-1.933
Afghanistan50-2.089
Pool Fixtures

Thu, May 30 
10:30 England vs South Africa  (The Oval)

Fri, May 31 
10:30 West Indies vs Pakistan (Trent Bridge)

Sat, Jun 1 
10:30 New Zealand vs Sri Lanka (Cardiff)
13:30 Afghanistan vs Australia (Bristol)

Sun, Jun 2 
10:30 South Africa vs Bangladesh (The Oval)

Mon, Jun 3 
10:30 England vs Pakistan (Trent Bridge)

Tue, Jun 4 
10:30 Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka (Cardiff)

Wed, Jun 5 
10:30 South Africa vs India (Southampton)
13:30 Bangladesh vs New Zealand (The Oval)

Thu, Jun 6 
10:30 Australia vs West Indies (Trent Bridge)

Fri, Jun 7 
10:30 Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Bristol)

Sat, Jun 8 
10:30 England vs Bangladesh (Cardiff)
13:30 Afghanistan vs New Zealand (Taunton)

Sun, Jun 9 
10:30 Australia vs India (The Oval)

Mon, Jun 10 
10:30 South Africa vs West Indies (Southampton)

Tue, Jun 11 
10:30 Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka (Bristol)

Wed, Jun 12 
10:30 Australia vs Pakistan (Taunton)

Thu, Jun 13 
10:30 India vs New Zealand (Trent Bridge)

Fri, Jun 14 
10:30 England vs West Indies (Southampton)

Sat, Jun 15 
10:30 Australia vs Sri Lanka (The Oval)
13:30 Afghanistan vs South Africa (Cardiff)

Sun, Jun 16 
10:30 India vs Pakistan (Old Trafford)

Mon, Jun 17 
10:30 Bangladesh vs West Indies (Taunton)

Tue, Jun 18 
10:30 England vs Afghanistan (Old Trafford)

Wed, Jun 19 
10:30 New Zealand vs South Africa (Edgbaston)

Thu, Jun 20 
10:30 Australia vs Bangladesh (Trent Bridge)

Fri, Jun 21 
10:30 England vs Sri Lanka (Headingley)

Sat, Jun 22 
10:30 Afghanistan vs India (Southampton)
13:30 New Zealand vs West Indies (Old Trafford)

Sun, Jun 23 
10:30 Pakistan vs South Africa (Lord’s)

Mon, Jun 24 
10:30 Afghanistan vs Bangladesh (Southampton)

Tue, Jun 25 
10:30 England vs Australia (Lord’s)

Wed, Jun 26 
10:30 New Zealand vs Pakistan (Edgbaston)

Thu, Jun 27 
10:30 India vs West Indies (Old Trafford)

Fri, Jun 28 
10:30 South Africa vs Sri Lanka (Edgbaston)

Sat, Jun 29 
10:30 Afghanistan vs Pakistan (Headingley)
13:30 Australia vs New Zealand (Lord’s)

Sun, Jun 30 
10:30 England vs India (Edgbaston)

Mon, Jul 1 
10:30 Sri Lanka vs West Indies (Riverside Ground)

Tue, Jul 2 
10:30 Bangladesh vs India (Edgbaston)

Wed, Jul 3 
10:30 England vs New Zealand (Riverside Ground)

Thu, Jul 4 
10:30 Afghanistan vs West Indies (Headingley)

Fri, Jul 5 
10:30 Bangladesh vs Pakistan (Lord’s)

Sat, Jul 6 
10:30 India vs Sri Lanka (Headingley)
13:30 Australia vs South Africa (Old Trafford)




Knock Out Fixtures


To Follow


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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 2:14 am

guildfordbat wrote:
alfie wrote:Good win for Australia in the end thumbsup

Sri Lankan chase started really well and they were right in it for a long time...but the rest of the order couldn't follow Karunaratne's example and it all fell away : much credit to Starc who did the serious damage.

But also a word for Maxwell who made a significant contribution in not getting smashed so solving the fifth bowler problem...

Australia in an interesting position right now : on course for the semis barring catastrophe ; not quite sure what their best XI is ; not over impressive really - yet managing to get the job done in all except the India game...are they near favorites or just hopefuls ?  Perhaps the contests with England and NZ will give us a better idea...

One thing we can say : Finch is doing a wonderful job as leader in both the captaincy and opening bat areas : full marks to him clap

Hi Alfie - yes, Maxwell undoubtedly made a significant contribution to Australia's win. He bowled well and effectively.

I did feel though that the Sri Lankan batsmen were a little too respectful of him. Worth remembering that Richardson and Behrendorff were leaking runs when he came on early in the proceedings (12th over, I think). Having just checked, Richardson had gone for 16 in 2 overs and Behrendorff for 32 in 3.  I wondered if they were a bit too wary about getting out to a part-timer when he first bowled and that they were confident that they could comtinue to milk Richardson and Behrendorff whenever they were bowling. As things transpired, Maxwell got into a groove (perhaps not too surprisingly having been treated with respect from the start) whilst Richardson and Behrendorff were better later on.

I agree with KP_f that Maxwell is unlikely to always bowl as well in this tournament as he did yesterday. That's not taking anything away from what he achieved yesterday. However, I suspect Australia would be better off regarding him as the sixth bowler who might be turned to and be effective rather than relying on him as the fifth bowler to have to bowl a (near) full allocation and be effective.

I don't know this  Aussie ODI side and the rest of their squad well enough to be categoric but I would look to get Lyon in the eleven. Maybe for S Marsh from yesterday's team although I don't know if that would weaken the batting too much?

Two ways Lyon could play ....
In the 4th seamer spot from yesterdays squad that Zampa had previously occupied. This would strengthen the batting down the order but leave them short on seam and with two off spinners.
Bring in Stoinis for a seamer and drop Maxwell or a batsman.

I just dont think they rate Lyon in ODIs, and see Maxwells off spin as being good enough to do a job with Smith and Finch offering emergency overs of change bowling. Incredibly hes only played 25 ODIs, and a good run of those this year. It does seem hes been given the opportunity (including their warm ups) but not taken it and fallen out of favour. Averages 61 with the ball at 5 an over this year is a lot worse than Maxwell so no great shock really. On TMS they also mentioned he went for 34 in an over against David Willey in a T20 not long ago which maybe didnt help his cause!

I dont really rate Zampa much either, but you can understand the desire to get a leggie in the side when globally so many wickets had been falling to them. And hes not done a terrible job. But it does seem that with the pace friendly conditions here theyve just decided to go with their strengths and pick what they see as their best bowlers, then trust Maxwell to back it up. Having 5 proper bowlers isn't really an option for them as none of them can bat even vaguely well. Even with 4 in the side their tail is horrific.

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Post by LeinsterFan4life on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 2:17 am

Gooseberry wrote:Going back to Leinsterfans comment . ...

It's all very well and romantic but Ireland have been given all the chances to build on their success including test status. But since being given more exposure their team has gone backwards horribly.
They are now back behind Zimbabwe, overhauled and on recent results Scotland too, neither of whom are close to and Afghanistan side that is getting absolutely ruined here. The gap between the top sides and the likes of Sri Lanka is bad enough, but we could do without 13-0s.

Sadly the likes of Kenya and Holland just don't feature at all anymore.

Let the Olympics have 10 over amateur pajama rounders to pretend that it's a global game and let the 1% of the world population outside India who care get on with enjoying a competitive professional sport.

Snobbery? Absolutely, its cricket.


Sadly cricket just isnt ready for that many teams. Even Sri Lanka cant provide a decent team any more , we would be much better placed ensuring the few countries that do have a culture and following for it can rebuild and sustain that. They've lost Zimbabwe already, Ireland tried and failed, Bangladesh Sri Lanka and the West Indies are all in danger.
Inviting more junk that largely exists to enable board members to pocket ICC cash isnt going to help save the few boards that are producing decent teams.
The form for tier 2 teams without professional leagues will always fluctuate drastically in every sport, you can't use the form of teams in one world cup cycle to justify the tournament contracting when there have been numerous upsets and close games in the past. Having the lesser nations put in a great performance creates a huge buzz for the tournament, something which this tournament is completely lacking.

The rugby world cup is coming up in September and the gulf in class between NZ and the likes of Namibia and Russia is far greater than anything seen in a cricket world cup I would say, yet a lot of rugby fans are calling for the tournament to be expanded to 24. The gulf in class argument is a weak one.

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Post by KP_fan on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 2:24 am

Reportedly a fifth of the humanity will watch this game so it should not be rained out

India asked to bat first and I would have batted first on winning the toss ....An error from Pakistan to underestimate the pressure of scoreboard.

Batting first makes India 55-45 favorite
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Post by robbo277 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 2:35 am

Duty281 wrote:BET365 currently have it thusly on the 'to reach semi-final' market:

England 1/20. India 1/12. Australia 1/12. New Zealand 1/3. Windies 5/2. Pakistan 9/2. South Africa 9/1. Bangladesh 20/1. Sri Lanka 33/1. Afghanistan 250/1.

Like most of us, they don't think it's particularly open either.


I think there's a bit more in it than others on here, but I've done an analysis and tried to keep it neutral. I have assumed no NRs for simplicity, but one of these now at the wrong time could be terminal for a team's chances.

Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan aren't offering much. For the remaining fixtures, I've given everyone 2 points from matches against them. If you slip up against them you probably don't deserve the semi-finals, but everyone SHOULD beat them.

New Zealand have played all 3 of these, but everyone else in the reckoning has games left against these 3. England and India play 2 of them, Australia play 1. West Indies have 3 games against these teams, while Pakistan play 2 and SA 1. Adjusting the table for this:

Aus - Pld 6, Pts 10
Eng - Pld 6, Pts 10
Ind - Pld 5, Pts 9
WI - Pld 7, Pts 9
NZ - Pld 4, Pts 7
Pak - Pld 6, Pts 7
SA - Pld 6, Pts 5

Working the numbers through from here, I would say that any team that gets 11 will likely make the semi-finals. 12 is a near-enough certainty. The chance of Australia, England or India missing out on the points are remote, so I will focus on the chance of New Zealand missing out. They have to play the 3 teams who are all looking to overturn them as well as Australia and England. They could probably win or lose any of those games, there's no obvious result in any of them.

West Indies

West Indies (as the odds suggest) are therefore the most likely to crash the party. With a game left against NZ, if they can win that one they can change the equation to:

WI - Pld 8, Pts 11
NZ - Pld 5, Pts 7

West Indies final game will be against India, and even if we take that as a bridge too far, West Indies can finish on 11 points. This would leave NZ needing to get two wins against Pakistan and South Africa (or if they drop 1 of those then they'll need to win one of the Australia/England games in the final games). Achievable, but if they lose to West Indies and West Indies clean up the minnows, it may be closer than some might think.

Pakistan

Pakistan finish against the 2 minnows. The next 3 games for them are obviously the big one against India, and then crucial games against SA and NZ. To get to that 11 points they need to win 2 of these. Although I wouldn't rule out them beating India (I think "derby" games as a rule generally have more opportunity to confound form book and expectations), I would say their best chances would be winning the other two. Beating South Africa would effectively eliminate them and beating NZ would take points from the team who will end up being their main rivals.

If Pakistan and WI both beat NZ, both could end up on 11, alongside NZ if they win 2 of their 3 games against South Africa, England and Australia. I think 11 points is a realistic target for both these countries and if they get there and miss out then they'll just have to accept it as bad luck.

South Africa

South Africa have to play NZ next up for both teams and this is an elimination game for SA. In truth, all of South Africa's games are elimination games. Lose one and they're capped at 9 points and it would take some very questionable permutations to get them into the semifinals.

So South Africa win all 4. Assuming neither Pakistan or West Indies beat India I can't see either of those getting past 11 points. So the question will be whether NZ can, which they would be able to do by winning 3 of 4 against Pakistan, West Indies, England and Australia. 3 would be tougher for them, but SA winning all 4 assumes they'll beat Australia, so that's no less likely than NZ knocking over England, for example.

So while NZ are favourites for the semi-finals, their next 3 games are against the 5th, 6th and 7th teams in the tournament who will all be gunning hard for them as for all of them their hopes are underpinned on beating NZ. NZ would go a long way to the semi-finals if they could beat 2 of these teams, but unless they can win all 3 the door will be open going into the final 2 rounds.

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Post by KP_fan on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 2:52 am

Nervous , edgy and cautious start
First target....Try to ensure we get at least 270 on the board
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Post by alfie on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 3:03 am

Nice analysis , robbo...and the tipping competition scores say your judgement is pretty good Smile

But I wouldn't be guaranteeing West Indies wins against all the "Minnows" : I've actually picked Bangladesh to beat them with reasonable hopes I think - and I wouldn't totally write off Sri Lanka though that one looks a lot less likely to go wrong.

You are right that things are still very much open - at least mathematically. What we are really missing is major surprise results ...maybe some around the corner ?

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Post by Good Golly I'm Olly on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 3:09 am

India in cruise control here, no real chances created despite winning the toss for Pakistan and India going at over 5 an over without really trying. Ominous
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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 3:14 am

Yeah for a side that's happy to build and accelerate this is a very good start under a bit of cloud. Seeing off 4 overs of Amir is a thing too, hes the one who's caused them.
problems in recent times.

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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 3:19 am

Robbo ....
Very good you've gone for a detailed considered analysis.
What I think you're missing on the west indies is that they are on the slide and suffering injuries, also very much a team who are driven by confidence and sometimes lose motivation.
Chances are the west indies we see from now on will be the one that lacked basic professionalism through 2018 rather than the one that turned up for englands visit and the start of the world cup.
Their squad really packs depth so the injuries will bite very hard. Their fielding will get worse. The divisions may surface and the likes of Gayle start thinking they are above it.
I cant see them winning against good sides and will be vulnerable to the lower mid table ones. They haven't a cat in hells chance of making the top 4.

I also think you're underating New Zealand. Coming in they were ranked 3 and on the up, SA were 4 and on the way down. NZ are one of the top 4 sides here and theres quite a gap. Taking the free point off India has served them very well, it requires a series of results to go against the head for one of Pakistan, Windies or SA to catch them and none of those sides look good enough to do that. Im also now assuming Pakistans hopes in this game have gone from this position it would be a hell of thing and sadly it looks like we are again seeing the real extent of the gap between those top sides and the chasing pack.


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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 3:24 am

Crumbs ...now very much Indias game after that sudden burst. Sharma is really taking them apart here. Early daysard to see how they'd end up with less than 350 from here and 400 is a strong possibility.

Sharmas fastest 50 in ODIs

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Post by KP_fan on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 3:28 am

Imad Wasim no more than a Part-time spinner picked as a specialist 5th bowler...is worse than Hafeez and Shoaib......a bad pick over a specialist seamer like Afridi

Don't be surprised if Pandya hits him for 4 SIXES in an over if he gets to bat against him or the other spinner Shadab

Pak's team section and bowling first lopsided and with their lengths they are seemingly too nervous and unsettled.


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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 3:35 am

KP_fan wrote:Imad Wasim no more than a Part-time spinner picked as a specialist 5th bowler...is worse than Hafeez and Shoaib......a bad pick over a specialist seamer like Afridi

Don't be surprised if Pandya hits him for 4 SIXES in an over if he gets to bat against him or the other spinner Shadab

Pak's team section and bowling first lopsided and with their lengths they are seemingly too nervous and unsettled.



Agreeing for once...
It does seem odd to pick two spinner all rounders when they have Hafeez in the side. Made worse by some poor new ball bowling, all in it looks like the occasion has got to them.
Amirs taken two warnings for running right down the middle, which suggests his heads not in the game either. Typical Pakistan!

The only downer for India has been the messy running between these two, run out looks like the way a wicket might come.

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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 3:50 am

Pakistan seem to have got some control back here with a series of cheap overs ...even got away with a full toss there. Feels like a waiting game for India to cut loose, sticking by Shadab has payed off for now though.

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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:05 am

Riaz now warned as well. Pakistan in danger of absolutely falling apart.

50/50 game in KPF terms kiss

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Post by KP_fan on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:06 am

robbo277 wrote: [

I think there's a bit more in it than others on here, but I've done an analysis and tried to keep it neutral. I have assumed no NRs for simplicity, but one of these now at the wrong time could be terminal for a team's chances.

Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan aren't offering much. For the remaining fixtures, I've given everyone 2 points from matches against them. If you slip up against them you probably don't deserve the semi-finals, but everyone SHOULD beat them.

New Zealand have played all 3 of these, but everyone else in the reckoning has games left against these 3. England and India play 2 of them, Australia play 1. West Indies have 3 games against these teams, while Pakistan play 2 and SA 1. Adjusting the table for this:

Aus - Pld 6, Pts 10
Eng - Pld 6, Pts 10
Ind - Pld 5, Pts 9
WI - Pld 7, Pts 9
NZ - Pld 4, Pts 7
Pak - Pld 6, Pts 7
SA - Pld 6, Pts 5

Working the numbers through from here, I would say that any team that gets 11 will likely make the semi-finals. 12 is a near-enough certainty. The chance of Australia, England or India missing out on the points are remote, so I will focus on the chance of New Zealand missing out. They have to play the 3 teams who are all looking to overturn them as well as Australia and England. They could probably win or lose any of those games, there's no obvious result in any of them.

West Indies

West Indies (as the odds suggest) are therefore the most likely to crash the party. With a game left against NZ, if they can win that one they can change the equation to:

WI - Pld 8, Pts 11
NZ - Pld 5, Pts 7

West Indies final game will be against India, and even if we take that as a bridge too far, West Indies can finish on 11 points. This would leave NZ needing to get two wins against Pakistan and South Africa (or if they drop 1 of those then they'll need to win one of the Australia/England games in the final games). Achievable, but if they lose to West Indies and West Indies clean up the minnows, it may be closer than some might think.

Pakistan

Pakistan finish against the 2 minnows. The next 3 games for them are obviously the big one against India, and then crucial games against SA and NZ. To get to that 11 points they need to win 2 of these. Although I wouldn't rule out them beating India (I think "derby" games as a rule generally have more opportunity to confound form book and expectations), I would say their best chances would be winning the other two. Beating South Africa would effectively eliminate them and beating NZ would take points from the team who will end up being their main rivals.

If Pakistan and WI both beat NZ, both could end up on 11, alongside NZ if they win 2 of their 3 games against South Africa, England and Australia. I think 11 points is a realistic target for both these countries and if they get there and miss out then they'll just have to accept it as bad luck.

South Africa

South Africa have to play NZ next up for both teams and this is an elimination game for SA. In truth, all of South Africa's games are elimination games. Lose one and they're capped at 9 points and it would take some very questionable permutations to get them into the semifinals.

So South Africa win all 4. Assuming neither Pakistan or West Indies beat India I can't see either of those getting past 11 points. So the question will be whether NZ can, which they would be able to do by winning 3 of 4 against Pakistan, West Indies, England and Australia. 3 would be tougher for them, but SA winning all 4 assumes they'll beat Australia, so that's no less likely than NZ knocking over England, for example.

So while NZ are favourites for the semi-finals, their next 3 games are against the 5th, 6th and 7th teams in the tournament who will all be gunning hard for them as for all of them their hopes are underpinned on beating NZ. NZ would go a long way to the semi-finals if they could beat 2 of these teams, but unless they can win all 3 the door will be open going into the final 2 rounds.

That's similar to what I said...there are 2 variables....1 major and 2nd one minor:

1-NZ by no means are certain or way ahead of the pack...because they have not played the top sides at all
and WI have 3 games against the 3 weak sides
so to varying degrees NZ, WI , SA and Pak are all in hunt ( even if pak lose today)

2- The other minor variable is an outside chance of Eng being knocked out ....they have to win atleast one of the games against NZ, Ind or Aus ( and not lose to Lanka or Afg is deemed given)
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Post by Duty281 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:06 am

India lose a wicket. Mind you, I don't think they'll mind too much, Rahul was really struggling to score consistently.

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Post by robbo277 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:07 am

alfie wrote:Nice analysis , robbo...and the tipping competition scores say your judgement is pretty good  Smile

But I wouldn't be guaranteeing West Indies wins against all the "Minnows" : I've actually picked Bangladesh to beat them with reasonable hopes I think - and I wouldn't totally write off Sri Lanka though that one looks a lot less likely to go wrong.

You are right that things are still very much open - at least mathematically.  What we are really missing is major surprise results ...maybe some around the corner ?

Fair points across the board. It was just a starting point - everyone to beat the three weaker teams, otherwise the permutations would get a bit out of control for just me and my excel sheet! I've looked again further below, I don't think Bangladesh or Sri Lanka will qualify for the semi-finals, however if one of the chasing pack lose to either of them they can probably book their flights home early. Therefore to make it, the minimum expectation is that these teams beat these guys.

If you tier the countries in the World Cup:

Tier 1: England, India, Australia, (New Zealand)
Tier 2: (New Zealand), Pakistan, West Indies, South Africa
Tier 3: Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan

Bangladesh beat South Africa by 21 runs and Pakistan beat England by 14 runs. Other than that, no-one has beat a team form a tier above, so few upsets in total. A major upset would probably be a tier 3 beating a tier 1, but I don't think we'll see any of those in this tournament to be honest. Would South Africa beating Australia or West Indies/Pakistan beating India be seen as major upsets?

New Zealand are a bit of an oddity in this, in that they've played the 3 Tier 3 teams and won, and had a washout in their fourth game. I think their possibly the 4 strongest team but it will be interesting to see if they do qualify whether they beat the Tier 2 teams and mix it with England and Australia or whether they go through as the "best of the rest".

Maybe tier 3 is harsh on Bangladesh as they ran NZ close, beat South Africa and were washed out against Sri Lanka and maybe I've given too much weighting to their performance against England (which I paid more attention to). Their next game is against West Indies and a win there and they've got half a chance (and you'd probably bump them up to Tier 2 at that stage). They'd still need to beat Afghanistan, Pakistan and one of Australia or India, so it would take a quite special run of results.

Sri Lanka have 4 points and have to play England and India. Their other two games are against South Africa and West Indies. Even if they win both of those they'll only be on 8. I don't think they have what it takes to win 3 of these games, but they like Bangladesh will have to be dispatched efficiently by anyone reaching for the semi-finals.

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Post by KP_fan on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:07 am

Gooseberry wrote:Riaz now warned as well. Pakistan in danger of absolutely falling apart.

50/50 game in KPF terms kiss

If India cross 300 then I would put us as 90-10...and many will think India should definitely get to 300 from here
BUT when it's a Indian game.......I don't take anything for granted
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Post by robbo277 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:20 am

KP_fan wrote:
2- The other minor variable is an outside chance of Eng being knocked out ....they have to win atleast one of the games against NZ, Ind or Aus ( and not lose to Lanka or Afg is deemed given)

There is a theoretical chance of England going out, even if they win their next 2.

If England can win 3 game (Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and 1 more), I think they're set. Again assuming no NRs, West Indies and Pakistan can't get 12 without beating India. Bangladesh can't get 12 without beating Australia and India. South Africa can't get to 12 at all.

So the chance comes if England lose all 3 to India, Australia and New Zealand. If you put England at 50/50 in all those games, that's a 1/8 chance they don't get the 12 points to effectively guarantee qualification.

Then the 4 members of the chasing pack on 3 points could all get to 11 points with 4 wins. So:

South Africa would have to win all their last 4 including NZ and Aus
Bangladesh would have to win 4 of their last 5 including one of Aus or India
Pakistan would have to win 4 of their last 5 including one of India or NZ
West Indies would have to win 4 of their last 5 including one of India or NZ

So after you've calculated that 1/8 chance of England not making 12 points, you have to factor in one of these 4 teams picking up an upset win from a top team. West Indies beating 3 minnows and NZ would represent the best chance.

The thing that would really hurt England is having one or both of the next two rained off (assuming they won't lose across 100 overs). But even then, I don't think we'll end up losing all 3 of the final 3.

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Post by robbo277 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:24 am

Duty281 wrote:India lose a wicket. Mind you, I don't think they'll mind too much, Rahul was really struggling to score consistently.

Poor to make 57 from 78 batting first, especially when the guy at the other end is going at 120/100. If you take a while to get in you have to stay in long enough to catch-up.

Luckily Sharma is going very nicely and has caught up Rahul's SR. With the score at 161-1 off 27.3 and the batting left to come, India should be very disappointed if they don't make more than 300. Really they should be looking at 330ish.

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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:26 am

robbo277 wrote:
KP_fan wrote:
2- The other minor variable is an outside chance of Eng being knocked out ....they have to win atleast one of the games against NZ, Ind or Aus ( and not lose to Lanka or Afg is deemed given)

There is a theoretical chance of England going out, even if they win their next 2.

If England can win 3 game (Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and 1 more), I think they're set. Again assuming no NRs, West Indies and Pakistan can't get 12 without beating India. Bangladesh can't get 12 without beating Australia and India. South Africa can't get to 12 at all.

So the chance comes if England lose all 3 to India, Australia and New Zealand. If you put England at 50/50 in all those games, that's a 1/8 chance they don't get the 12 points to effectively guarantee qualification.

Then the 4 members of the chasing pack on 3 points could all get to 11 points with 4 wins. So:

South Africa would have to win all their last 4 including NZ and Aus
Bangladesh would have to win 4 of their last 5 including one of Aus or India
Pakistan would have to win 4 of their last 5 including one of India or NZ
West Indies would have to win 4 of their last 5 including one of India or NZ

So after you've calculated that 1/8 chance of England not making 12 points, you have to factor in one of these 4 teams picking up an upset win from a top team. West Indies beating 3 minnows and NZ would represent the best chance.

The thing that would really hurt England is having one or both of the next two rained off (assuming they won't lose across 100 overs). But even then, I don't think we'll end up losing all 3 of the final 3.

Theoretical yes but they can afford a rained off easy game and to loose 2 of the big ones and still easily qualify because the chasers probably wont win all their games. Certainly Pakistans chances here are gone.

The one thing that seems to be forgotten in these calculations is that Pakistan arent very good, especially when things get tough.
Id also put England as slightly better than 50/50 in the tough games, they've beaten all of those sides in the series they've played against them (caveats on that aside)


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Post by KP_fan on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:27 am

robbo277 wrote:
KP_fan wrote:
2- The other minor variable is an outside chance of Eng being knocked out ....they have to win atleast one of the games against NZ, Ind or Aus ( and not lose to Lanka or Afg is deemed given)

If England can win 3 game (Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and 1 more), I think they're set. Again assuming no NRs, West Indies and Pakistan can't get 12 without beating India. Bangladesh can't get 12 without beating Australia and India. South Africa can't get to 12 at all.

So the chance comes if England lose all 3 to India, Australia and New Zealand. If you put England at 50/50 in all those games, that's a 1/8 chance they don't get the 12 points to effectively guarantee qualification.


That in bold is the key......Eng should not lose all those 3 games........
further Afg/ Lanka games of Eng should not get rained out.......nor should Lanka spring a surprise.

I called it an outside chance which gets slightly LESS exaggerated...if Aus & Ind keep winning all their games and stay clearly at top.
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Post by Duty281 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:32 am

Century for Rohit - its looked pretty easy for him so far.

172/1 with 20 to go. 9 per over will get them to 350.

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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:33 am

Thinking Sharma might start to cut loose now he has the century and Kholi has had some time to get his eye in. India havent ran away with this but this is a low scoring ground. Pakistan do bat fairly deep with this line up but 350 has to be in reach and easily defended.

Batsman of the tournament so far?

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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:49 am

India arent running away with this yet , Im surprised that Kholi is still being so cautious. Pakistans best hope might be Pandya not getting to the crease!

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Post by Duty281 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:51 am

Yes, I'd expected them to engage T20 mode by now, but they still seem happy to push the ball into the gaps for 1s and 2s. At least for now!

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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 4:59 am

Checking the weather looks like there could still be rain at the end if Pakistan stay in. It would be a big shame if they bat bravely only to loose out to that.

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Post by James100 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 5:01 am

Very good ten overs from Imad, bowled with great control, drift and more spin than I've seen him get previously in SENA. Under 5-an-over in this situation is top stuff.

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Post by KP_fan on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 5:05 am

James100 wrote:Very good ten overs from Imad, bowled with great control, drift and more spin than I've seen him get previously in SENA. Under 5-an-over in this situation is top stuff.

yeah he bowled better thanhe looked like doing at the start
Its also gotta do with ball starting to grip......and that's not a good sign for pak
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Post by alfie on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 5:10 am

238/2...eleven more overs to go...surely 340 ?

Although teams have been slowed late in their innings in this tournament before...

Too many for Pakistan anyway against India's bowlers unless they have a total collapse.

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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 5:21 am

Pandyas not going to get a go at the junk bowlers by the looks of it which could limit the score.
340 seems likely now which gives Pakistan a chance but India in the driving seat.

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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 5:30 am

Standard Pandya, scores fast but gets out cheap.

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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 5:45 am

Ooh steady drizzle .....
Shankar reviewing ....
...drama

Walking off for rain during a review hmmm

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Post by Duty281 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 6:59 am

India finish with a monumental 336/5. Should be enough, quite comfortably. Very impressed with Amir again.

Let's see if Pakistan throw the bat at everything early on, like the Sri Lankans did in their brave effort yesterday.

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Post by KP_fan on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 7:05 am

Pak erred in putting India in...they normally struggle under pressure of scoreboard in a chase and this is A 10X mega pressure game

Had they batted first and put 275 on.....India would have struggled. ...the pitch has assistance for seamers and was gripping for spinners.....
And Pak pulled it back ....it ain't easy against pak seamers who are very good especially Amir and Wahab at the end.

Now it's very difficult for Pak....90-10 in India's favor....if it was ar side other than India i would have said game over no chance for Pak

BUT against India thy can raise their game and someone can play the magic inning of his life...hence 10% chance.

Was surprised that Kohli walked away.....should have waited for umpire and used the DRS actually if given..


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Post by Duty281 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 7:09 am

Oh dear, rain lashing down again. Pakistan won't be too displeased; a reduced DLS chase would improve their chances a little. And they'd certainly take a rained off game from here!

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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 7:19 am

I wouldnt day 90 10 kpf ... the rain might suit Pakistan and chaps like Babar.

It's a good batting surface ...but this is Headingly which has been notoriously low scoring g in recent years.

Pakistan still have a sniff and will feel like momentum is with them after controlling the close.

India maybe left their charge too late and would've like Pandya to get some of the junk bowlers. There was a period where they looked about ready to go and then just played out something like 5 overs for 12 runs.

Amir has shown though that his seam bowling is possible. If Bumrah bring his A game ....

All in I feel it's closer than it should be from the platform India had. And rain will play a part too

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Post by Pal Joey on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 7:24 am

Old Trafford I think you mean.
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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 7:26 am

That too whoops!

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Post by Pal Joey on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 7:29 am

Is that larger stand (full of Indian fans) a temporary one put up for this World Cup or part of a recent redevelopment at OT from a couple of years ago... do you know?

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Post by Duty281 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 8:31 am

49/1 after 12. Hardly sparkling from Pakistan, but Babar Azam has (again) got himself set with some nice shots. Kumar off the field for India and won't be able to return.

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Post by Duty281 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 9:15 am

100 partnership from these two. Some excellent shots along the way. 113/1 after 23.

Tremendous delivery from Yadav an over later. Babar clean bowled.

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Post by Good Golly I'm Olly on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 10:02 am

India, as they have been all game really, in complete control now after a collapse by Pakistan. A convincing win for them, albeit slightly tarnished by the Bhuvi injury
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Post by Duty281 on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 10:03 am

Total collapse from Pakistan. 117/1 to 129/5.

We have our semi-finalists - Australia, England, India, New Zealand - the next few weeks will decide the order.

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Post by jimbohammers on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 10:09 am

Awful innings from Sarfaraz.

Have no idea what the Pakistan approach was in this run chase, just dabbing it around, no urgency at all

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Post by VTR on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 10:17 am

India far too good for Pakistan. I predict some flag/effigy burning tonight!

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Post by KP_fan on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 10:30 am

@msp.....so as we discussed it was a matter of time before Kuldeep will pick wickets OK

He bowled so well today....tied the Pak batsmen in knots, beat them often, they were not reading him & trying to adjust off the pitch.....and triggered a collapse knocking the wind out of their sails...and riding his back Pandya / Shankar picked some more wkts.

I think if Kohli had bowled his last over out, he might have plucked another wicket or 2 out.

This Indian team does not need BIG 300s....and as I said many time 2 wrist spinners are the differentiator that pick wickets in middle overs when other sides are trying to contain.....and so they can compete with 275ish and 300 is plenty for them to defend.

And so they first try too get in the range of Min 275ish, before stepping up the pace

Great show of depth to knock off Pak comprehensively even with a lead seamer out with 7.3 overs remaining....Pandya stepped up.

I think Bhuvi has some kinda small niggle...and should be ready soon...won't be surprised if it's coz he is trying to bowl faster then he should.

India has an equal replacement in Shami who many thought should have played ahead of Bhuvi...only that he doesn't bat as well.

How correct the selectors were who called Shankar a 3 Dimensional player when selecting him ahead of Rayadu in the squad.

Our next game is Afg in a week's time and then WI on 27th June....so we can allow Bhuvi to rest and recover and give some game time to Shami
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Post by KP_fan on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 11:01 am

Will be a 40-over game. Pakistan need 130 off 30 balls.

Ha ha....this is called charade Whistle
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Post by Good Golly I'm Olly on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 11:19 am

Pal Joey wrote:Is that larger stand (full of Indian fans) a temporary one put up for this World Cup or part of a recent redevelopment at OT from a couple of years ago... do you know?


It is a temporary stand PJ - but they use it often...if that makes sense haha! Always there for the big games at OT and other events they hold there
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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 16 Jun 2019, 11:55 am

Less fussed that I missed the end of that than I I would be. Seems like the rain turned a drubbing into a farce.
The better team played better and won. It's just a shame there wasnt more drama to it.

And so we March on toward the ineviatble where the 4 decent teams playoff for the world cup.
Of those four India and England look the all round class acts. I just feel Aus have too many weak links in their side to win overall

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