World Rankings - things just got interesting

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Post by robbo277 on Sun 11 Aug 2019, 5:12 pm

First topic message reminder :

With the World Cup still a few weeks away, it's nice to try and apply some context to the week's matches.

When the official rankings come out on Monday, New Zealand will be top with 89.04, Wales will be second with 88.89 then Ireland (88.69), England (87.34), South Africa (86.83) and Australia (84.41).

Ireland don't play next week and South Africa play Argentina at home next week. Argentina are ranked so low now that a win would not allow South Africa up the rankings, and they can only lose points if they fail to win. The other two games of note are NZ at home to Australia and Wales at home to England.

There's a miniscule gap between NZ and Wales, and as Wales are playing a higher ranked team, any Wales win will see them officially ranked number 1 in the published rankings. Conversely if England beat Wales by 16+ points, England will be ranked number 1. Both these outcomes exist outside of NZ's sphere of influence.

If NZ beat Australia they'll be on 89.28 points. If they thrash Australia, they'll be on 89.40 points.

A Wales win would take them up to 89.43 points and a thrashing of England would take them to 89.71. Either of these would be more than NZ could muster against Australia.

An England win would see England up to 88.79, which is less than NZ after any kiwi win. However, an England thrashing of Wales would see them up to 89.52, and therefore above anything NZ could achieve.

England could also top the rankings with any win, if NZ fail to win against Australia. A draw against Australia would see NZ drop to 88.28 points and a loss would see them fall further. A narrow England win and an NZ draw or loss would see England top the rankings therefore.

The eagle-eyed amongst you might have noticed that "NZ fail to win - 88.28" would see NZ drop below Ireland, who would therefore rise to second. Ireland could even top the rankings if Wales and England then drew, as England would take enough points from Wales to drag them below Ireland but not enough to themselves get above Ireland.

If NZ lose at home to Australia, they would drop to third with a Wales win or 4th with a draw or an England win. If they suffered a second successive thrashing, they'd fall to 6th below Australia and South Africa. You can file that last scenario in "unlikely", but that would probably be their worst ever position.

Below the top 6 you've got Scotland and France in 7th and 8th. The winner of their game will be ranked higher at the end of the week, although neither can catch the top 6 or drop below those below them.

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Post by LondonTiger on Sat 07 Sep 2019, 9:37 pm

If NZ beat SA then they go back top and nothing you do against Scotland can overhaul them. If SA win they go top but you can go back top with a win over Scotland.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sat 07 Sep 2019, 9:50 pm

LondonTiger wrote:If NZ beat SA then they go back top and nothing you do against Scotland can overhaul them. If SA win they go top but you can go back top with a win over Scotland.

Too late, the number 1 ranked side going into the RWC has always won since rankings began except in 07.

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Post by SecretFly on Sat 07 Sep 2019, 9:58 pm

And what number would we be if we won the WC? Cool

Oh of course the Ranking number means little as you still always have to play your next game anyway.  Nobody gets a year off as a prize for getting to No1.  Teams want to win the WC...or even do well in one like getting to a final.

But I guess my point about the Rankings is that honestly it doesn't scare me.... it doesn't fill me with foreboding.  Ireland have a ton of improving to do to get to the slick levels currently operating with England and New Zealand for example.  

But I do believe in the Rankings because they are science...and therefore over the last few years, Ireland have done the work to put themselves in the position of being N1 at this moment.  And being No1 going into the WC doesn't fill me with any dread.

I think the players won't let it affect them negatively either.  I don't think they'll be feeling the pressure of it.  Only pressure on them is the same pressure they'd have if they were 7th - pressure to perform and play good rugby, not to defend a number.

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Post by ebop on Sat 07 Sep 2019, 11:30 pm

The Oracle wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=12265784


Salty!
Tom Cary from the Daily Telegraph UK wrote that, is he Irish?
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Post by Taylorman on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 7:45 am

SecretFly wrote:On the peak, looking down at everything else.  Air smells wonderful.  No wonder the ABs - and Wales - liked it up here.  

Doesn't feel strange either.  Thought it would feel strange but....nope, feels natural.  Why not?  We earned it. Wink

Now, if we actually play some rugby (improving by about 15 to 20% in all areas) we may even get to linger here a while.  Whistle

Well I agree it should be taken very positively. From an awful exit just four years ago Ireland has taken its game to a level that means it’s able to be ahead of everyone at least in terms of the sports ‘official’ ranking system.

It may be that they’re not looking the best side of the lot at the moment but it does recognise the improvement and effort the side...with the help of its fans...over the last four years. That alone should be celebrated or acknowledged even if it’s in some less than Super Bowl final / street parade hype.

Same with Wales last week. I get that both coaches are downplaying it, particularly both being kiwis, but it is what it is, and for probably the first time ever, and that’s a loooong ever, that Wales and Ireland are up with the top echelon of sides in this game.

Can’t not acknowledge that, no matter how much one would just love too, and tries... Laugh Whistle

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 10:20 am

ebop wrote:
The Oracle wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=12265784


Salty!
Tom Cary from the Daily Telegraph UK wrote that, is he Irish?

Havent a clue

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Post by mikey_dragon on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 11:09 am

Ireland lost 57-15 at Twickenham two weeks ago to cap a largely dreadful 2019, after which they were widely written off as a team past their sell-by date.

They know they are not the best team in the world right now. Their fans know. They are playing nowhere near as well as they were 12 months ago. So their ascension to world No 1 for the first time in their history after this 19-10 win over Wales should be taken with a hefty pinch of salt.​


Correct clap clap clap

It's only a matter of time now. The reaction from delusional Guns will be interesting to say the least.

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Post by SecretFly on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 11:19 am

Reaching Number 1 ranked side in the world "playing nowhere near as well as they were 12 months ago".

Winning 3 of their 4 warm-up games "playing nowhere near as well as they were 12 months ago".

Sending all their starting mainstays to the sidelines virtually in bulk in the second half and still winning against high-form Wales "playing nowhere near as well as they were 12 months ago".

Yep. Something looks queer. That Irish side look a dangerous dangerous outfit if they pick up some form and stop looking so dreadful!


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Post by ebop on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 12:03 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:
ebop wrote:
The Oracle wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=12265784


Salty!
Tom Cary from the Daily Telegraph UK wrote that, is he Irish?

Havent a clue
Probably is. He’s well pumped on Ireland. Pretty much saying Ireland are destined to win the RWC going in as #1. Big call considering their history at RWCs. Hate to say they’re chokers Guns but it’ll be in that territory if they don’t win, being #1 and all.
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Post by SecretFly on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 12:27 pm

I don't mind the tag 'choker' at all.  As I always say, it's a tag reserved for the better sides.

Ireland might choke - again.  Stranger things have happened - like France reaching a final having played abysmally through pools.

If we choke again, all we can do is try again the next time.  World keeps turning - we hope!

I think Ireland are secretly (or not so secretly) very calm about the whole show.  Who knows, maybe we should even be sending a box of Roses and a thank you card to England for our two games this year, and to Wales for the Six Nations game too.  Think we really needed it to settle any nerves that might have been growing.  I sense serenity now.  What will be will be.

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Post by ebop on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 12:41 pm

SecretFly, how do you rate the Schmidt era?
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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 12:51 pm

ebop wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
ebop wrote:
The Oracle wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=12265784


Salty!
Tom Cary from the Daily Telegraph UK wrote that, is he Irish?

Havent a clue
Probably is. He’s well pumped on Ireland. Pretty much saying Ireland are destined to win the RWC going in as #1. Big call considering their history at RWCs. Hate to say they’re chokers Guns but it’ll be in that territory if they don’t win, being #1 and all.

You are only calling Ireland chokers because NZ have been given that label in the past. Its fairly meaningless right now mainly because this is a different team and coaching set up to previous RWCs. Ireland are peaking at the right time and have very few injuries. So far so good. It also helps a lot that SA are a little over rated at the moment.

The team knows that they must win their group and their quarter to be considered a success, everything after that is achievable but a bonus.

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Post by ebop on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 12:59 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:
ebop wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
ebop wrote:
The Oracle wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=12265784


Salty!
Tom Cary from the Daily Telegraph UK wrote that, is he Irish?

Havent a clue
Probably is. He’s well pumped on Ireland. Pretty much saying Ireland are destined to win the RWC going in as #1. Big call considering their history at RWCs. Hate to say they’re chokers Guns but it’ll be in that territory if they don’t win, being #1 and all.

You are only calling Ireland chokers because NZ have been given that label in the past. Its fairly meaningless right now mainly because this is a different team and coaching set up to previous RWCs. Ireland are peaking at the right time and have very few injuries. So far so good. It also helps a lot that SA are a little over rated at the moment.

The team knows that they must win their group and their quarter to be considered a success, everything after that is achievable but a bonus.
You’re saying if Ireland ‘makes’ a semi-final but then loses it’ll be a success? That’s a pretty underwhelming goal for a #1 ranked team Guns.
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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 1:06 pm

Id be happy enough with that Ebop although obviously while their goal is to go all the way Im pretty sure it would be recieved as a success if they made a semi. When Schmidt was apointed he was given various goals. He has surpassed them all except the goal of making a semi.

Some other landmarks:
1st and 2nd ever wins v NZ
1st win in SA
Series win in Aus
3 six nations titles (most of any Irish coach)
First coach to achieve #1 ranking
Highest win rate for Irish coach (over 70%)
First win v France at a RWC
First Irish grand slam away to England

The semi in the RWC is the last box to tick however, given his form he may well surpass it. The best part is most people still dont really rate Ireland as contenders.

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Post by ebop on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 1:22 pm

Given ‘form’? Ireland’s form has been appalling and they are the #1 ranked team. Guns, enjoy the hype train buddy, that 1/4 final will be a doozy.
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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 1:26 pm

ebop wrote:Given ‘form’? Ireland’s form has been appalling and they are the #1 ranked team. Guns, enjoy the hype train buddy.

I didnt mention Irelands form.

Rassie has a 58% win rate with SA and all the hype is around him. Ireland have a higher win rate this year alone and its considered a dip. Im happy with the position we are in because there is no hype.

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Post by ebop on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 1:33 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:
ebop wrote:Given ‘form’? Ireland’s form has been appalling and they are the #1 ranked team. Guns, enjoy the hype train buddy.

I didnt mention Irelands form.

Rassie has a 58% win rate with SA and all the hype is around him. Ireland have a higher win rate this year alone and its considered a dip. Im happy with the position we are in because there is no hype.
Yes, you mentioned Schmidt’s form. Are you having an episode Guns? I’m glad you’re comfortable with where Ireland are at Guns. The perennial underdogs is what I’m sensing, yawn.
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Post by lostinwales on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 2:19 pm

SecretFly wrote:Reaching Number 1 ranked side in the world "playing nowhere near as well as they were 12 months ago".

Winning 3 of their 4 warm-up games "playing nowhere near as well as they were 12 months ago".

Sending all their starting mainstays to the sidelines virtually in bulk in the second half and still winning against high-form Wales "playing nowhere near as well as they were 12 months ago".

Yep.  Something looks queer.  That Irish side look a dangerous dangerous outfit if they pick up some form and stop looking so dreadful!


It is simple - the ranking is not an instantaneous picture of where things are now, they are a combination of results of the top teams over a couple of years. And a year ago Ireland were an amazing team. This year they seem a bit one track and over dependent on very good and experienced players whose performances can be past their best.

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Post by No 7&1/2 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 2:25 pm

And of course dependent on the roll of the dice of what fixtures you've had: and where.

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Post by Old Man on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 2:30 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:
ebop wrote:Given ‘form’? Ireland’s form has been appalling and they are the #1 ranked team. Guns, enjoy the hype train buddy.

I didnt mention Irelands form.

Rassie has a 58% win rate with SA and all the hype is around him. Ireland have a higher win rate this year alone and its considered a dip. Im happy with the position we are in because there is no hype.

perhapsyou should apply the same measure to both teams.

THIS YEAR Rassie have not lost a match.

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Post by SecretFly on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 2:52 pm

lostinwales wrote:
SecretFly wrote:Reaching Number 1 ranked side in the world "playing nowhere near as well as they were 12 months ago".

Winning 3 of their 4 warm-up games "playing nowhere near as well as they were 12 months ago".

Sending all their starting mainstays to the sidelines virtually in bulk in the second half and still winning against high-form Wales "playing nowhere near as well as they were 12 months ago".

Yep.  Something looks queer.  That Irish side look a dangerous dangerous outfit if they pick up some form and stop looking so dreadful!


It is simple - the ranking is not an instantaneous picture of where things are now, they are a combination of results of the top teams over a couple of years. And a year ago Ireland were an amazing team. This year they seem a bit one track and over dependent on very good and experienced players whose performances can be past their best.

That was my point.  Rankings have meaning because they reflect a period rather than even a tight sequence of immediate games.  That Ireland are No 1 is down to consistency at the top ranks over time.... so much so that even a bad Six Nations and an overall disappointing warm up sequence couldn't dent their points position enough to drop them out of contention for No 1 ranking.

That is not a fluke - that is a seriously consistent team that is showing again signs of coming into nice form after 8 months of down time.

Considered terrible year yet 3rd in Six Nations, more tries in Six Nations than GS winners Wales, 3 wins from 4 played in these warm ups (same as rampant England), more tries in this warm up period than Wales who most observers felt were in much better shape for a WC assault than poor Ireland.

This year isn't over.  This year there is a more important competition being played than 6N.  This year you have to try to be scientific in reaching your best form in the right months.  So how bad have Ireland really been, and how much of it was laying off the gas until..... now? We will see.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:02 pm

ebop wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
ebop wrote:Given ‘form’? Ireland’s form has been appalling and they are the #1 ranked team. Guns, enjoy the hype train buddy.

I didnt mention Irelands form.

Rassie has a 58% win rate with SA and all the hype is around him. Ireland have a higher win rate this year alone and its considered a dip. Im happy with the position we are in because there is no hype.
Yes, you mentioned Schmidt’s form. Are you having an episode Guns? I’m glad you’re comfortable with where Ireland are at Guns. The perennial underdogs is what I’m sensing, yawn.

I think you simply misunderstood the comment Ebop which isnt unexpected given your form.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:03 pm

Old Man wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
ebop wrote:Given ‘form’? Ireland’s form has been appalling and they are the #1 ranked team. Guns, enjoy the hype train buddy.

I didnt mention Irelands form.

Rassie has a 58% win rate with SA and all the hype is around him. Ireland have a higher win rate this year alone and its considered a dip. Im happy with the position we are in because there is no hype.

perhapsyou should apply the same measure to both teams.

THIS YEAR Rassie have not lost a match.

Yeah and he has played 4 games this year vs Irelands 9.

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Post by Old Man on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:07 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:
Old Man wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
ebop wrote:Given ‘form’? Ireland’s form has been appalling and they are the #1 ranked team. Guns, enjoy the hype train buddy.

I didnt mention Irelands form.

Rassie has a 58% win rate with SA and all the hype is around him. Ireland have a higher win rate this year alone and its considered a dip. Im happy with the position we are in because there is no hype.

perhapsyou should apply the same measure to both teams.

THIS YEAR Rassie have not lost a match.

Yeah and he has played 4 games this year vs Irelands 9.
5 Wink

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Post by Cyril on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:08 pm

Old man=Biltong?

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:09 pm

Old Man wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
Old Man wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
ebop wrote:Given ‘form’? Ireland’s form has been appalling and they are the #1 ranked team. Guns, enjoy the hype train buddy.

I didnt mention Irelands form.

Rassie has a 58% win rate with SA and all the hype is around him. Ireland have a higher win rate this year alone and its considered a dip. Im happy with the position we are in because there is no hype.

perhapsyou should apply the same measure to both teams.

THIS YEAR Rassie have not lost a match.

Yeah and he has played 4 games this year vs Irelands 9.
5 Wink

Jeepers, hold the phone. Its also not 100% record, there was a draw there but yes they have shown form this year for the first time on a while over a fairly short period.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:11 pm

Cyril wrote:Old man=Biltong?

That wouldnt surprise me

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Post by SecretFly on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:12 pm

Cyril wrote:Old man=Biltong?

....?

You could be in to something there, Cyril.

If it is, then he is most welcome back.... Hug

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:14 pm

In my view SA are a Handre Pollard injury from it all unraveling given they have gone to Japan without playing a back up 10 on the bench in their recent games.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:14 pm

SecretFly wrote:
Cyril wrote:Old man=Biltong?

....?

You could be in to something there, Cyril.  

If it is, then he is most welcome back.... Hug

Not by me.

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Post by mikey_dragon on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:21 pm

He said SA hadn’t lost Guns. Their wins were pretty convincing too while their draw in NZ is more than most teams can get. I didn’t realize it was Biltong if it is him? Come back and moderate these English mate, they’re out of control.

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Post by SecretFly on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:22 pm

It gets claustrophobic here, Guns.

If only a few English speaking Italianos and French people turned up too. The more world wide bitching we have, the more life this place has. Everyone is welcome in my opinion.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:25 pm

New posters would be good alright

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Post by Cyril on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:43 pm

Aye, Guns we wouldn’t want anyone returning from a ban too early with a v2, eh?

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Post by Old Man on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:44 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:In my view SA are a Handre Pollard injury from it all unraveling given they have gone to Japan without playing a back up 10 on the bench in their recent games.

Yes there are a few key players for SA, Pollard is one, Pieter Steph du Toit is in the form of his life, would be a big loss for SA.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:45 pm

Ill take your word for it Cyril

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Post by Old Man on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:45 pm

mikey_dragon wrote:He said SA hadn’t lost Guns. Their wins were pretty convincing too while their draw in NZ is more than most teams can get. I didn’t realize it was Biltong if it is him? Come back and moderate these English mate, they’re out of control.

No idea who biltong is.

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Post by Cyril on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:47 pm

Biltong was a bit tough, chewy to begin with, but had some lasting flavour.

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:47 pm

Old Man wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:In my view SA are a Handre Pollard injury from it all unraveling given they have gone to Japan without playing a back up 10 on the bench in their recent games.

Yes there are a few key players for SA, Pollard is one, Pieter Steph du Toit is in the form of his life, would be a big loss for SA.


Du Toit would be replaced by another big monster, not sure who would replace Pollard? Steyn, Jantjies? Neither at the same level. In my view SAs form is built around Pollard but look who knows neither are too bad either.

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Post by Old Man on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:51 pm

As for SA’s record, the last four years have been abysmal, Rassie has definitely shown improvement, whether the Boks can win the world cup is a totally different story.

Currently the only back line players in form is Pollard and Kolbe.

Faf de Klerk has become pedantic behind the ruck, his tactical kicking has been inconsistent and he has become a penalty magnet.

Willie le Roux is struggling for form

De Allende has at best been solid, nothing spectacular.

Am , Nkosi, Mapimpi although showing promise has few caps between them.

The SA pack is good, very good, but it will be a brave man who puts money on them winning the RWC.

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Post by Old Man on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:53 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:
Old Man wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:In my view SA are a Handre Pollard injury from it all unraveling given they have gone to Japan without playing a back up 10 on the bench in their recent games.

Yes there are a few key players for SA, Pollard is one, Pieter Steph du Toit is in the form of his life, would be a big loss for SA.


Du Toit would be replaced by another big monster, not sure who would replace Pollard? Steyn, Jantjies? Neither at the same level. In my view SAs form is built around Pollard but look who knows neither are too bad either.

There is a bit more to SA than Pollard though. Was it not for injury Damian Willemse would have been called up to cover 10, still young but extremely talented, even better than Curwin Bosch who many rate highly.


Last edited by Old Man on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:54 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:53 pm

Any updates on Ezebeth?

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Post by Collapse2005 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:54 pm

Old Man wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
Old Man wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:In my view SA are a Handre Pollard injury from it all unraveling given they have gone to Japan without playing a back up 10 on the bench in their recent games.

Yes there are a few key players for SA, Pollard is one, Pieter Steph du Toit is in the form of his life, would be a big loss for SA.


Du Toit would be replaced by another big monster, not sure who would replace Pollard? Steyn, Jantjies? Neither at the same level. In my view SAs form is built around Pollard but look who knows neither are too bad either.

There is a bit more to SA than Pollard though.  

Yes

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Post by Old Man on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 3:55 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:Any updates on Ezebeth?

From what I have been told by someone close to the camp, it is nothing to worry about.

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Post by No 7&1/2 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 4:04 pm

Biltong had a screw loose. Threatened to glass a poster once!

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Post by Cyril on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 4:30 pm

I must have missed Biltong threatening that. He did seem to leave under a cloud.

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Post by No 7&1/2 on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 4:55 pm

Oh that was a long time before him leaving. Never really held any respect for him after that though.
South Africa s pack is getting back to being the best around again. That's certainly what's driving their resurgence.

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Post by Cyril on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 6:02 pm

Fair enough then, if he did that, then glad he was banned.

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Post by Taylorman on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 7:57 pm

Old Man wrote:As for SA’s record, the last four years have been abysmal, Rassie has definitely shown improvement, whether the Boks can win the world cup is a totally different story.

Currently the only back line players in form is Pollard and Kolbe.

Faf de Klerk has become pedantic behind the ruck, his tactical kicking has been inconsistent and he has become a penalty magnet.

Willie le Roux is struggling for form

De Allende has at best been solid, nothing spectacular.

Am , Nkosi, Mapimpi although showing promise has few caps between them.

The SA pack is good, very good, but it will be a brave man who puts money on them winning the RWC.

Geez, same goes with Wales and Ireland if that’s the standard, the tournaments permanent chokers.

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Post by Taylorman on Sun 08 Sep 2019, 8:02 pm

Cyril wrote:Fair enough then, if he did that, then glad he was banned.

Who said he was banned? For me has more passion about his sides rugby than most on here. SA take a lot of flak on 606 and he’s one of few to stick up for them

Screw loose, 7.5 says? Hilarious. Like a rubbish collector telling someone they have an illness. Laugh

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