Interesting last round for the Super XV

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Interesting last round for the Super XV Empty Interesting last round for the Super XV

Post by Taylorman on Sat 11 Jun 2011, 9:02 pm

Without looking at the post analysis, the table provides a very intriguiging look to the last round...

Points so far are:

Reds 62
Stormers 58
Crusaders 57

Blues 56
Bulls 53
Sharks 53

Waratahs 52
Next on 45 can't make it.

Remaining matches that affect above:
Blues Highlanders at Auckland
Chiefs Reds at Hamilton
Crusaders Hurricanes at Wellington
Waratahs Brumbies at Sydney
Bulls Sharks at Pretoria
Cheetahs Stormers at Blmfntein

So the one sure thing is Reds will finish 1 or 2 though with a 5 pointer Stormers can top the table. Both secure home games from that scenario.

Reds, Stormers, Crusaders and Blues are certain top 6 as no scenario sees any of the 4 drop below 6 (unless a bulls sharks draw with 4 tries each gives them both 3 points- havnt checked that one)

The Sharks Bulls and tahs fight it out for 2 spots- 2 directly, but if the Tahs lose, the top 6 is as it is now.

Theres a number of scenarios that can rearrange the 1-6 spots so I wont try and drag them all out but some key ones...

If Blues beat the Highlanders at home and Crusaders lose to the Canes at Wellington then Blues take the NZ conference. The Blues should win given they need it and although arent performing well neither are the Highlanders. Blues will need to pick up to gain any sort of motivation for the playoffs.

Cheetahs could push the Stormers out of the top 3 if Stormers dont get a point and the Saders get a point or 2 from a loss.

The Bulls Sharks match could become a knockout match for the top 6 if the tahs beat the Brumbies at home 5 hours earlier- I'll bet they'll be watching that one.

There are 3 potentially 'soft' matches where canes, highlanders and Brumbies could do their countrymen favours. With Nonu and Hore playing last matches what better swansong than to beat the Saders in front of their very loyal fans at Westpac over the years. Cheetahs also could help Stormers retain their placing. Not to suggest that this will happen.

So all the top 6 looks as though it will be as it is now, it could still look very different in formation this time next week.

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Post by emack2 on Sat 11 Jun 2011, 11:02 pm

The thing about a super 15 is you can never rule a team out,Hurricanes at home.But I think the Crusaders are on a roll,no SBW but Ryan Crotty was established 12 and won`t let anyone down.Very impressed with Todd,Maitland,and Marshall[especially].Both sides missed some soft tries but McAlister What?Brilliant reffing by Joubert both sides knew exactly where they stood.Blues should have too much for Highlanders,Chiefs unlikely to beat Reds but there at home so must have a chance.I f Reds lose I would expect them to pick up a losing bonus point. Cheetahs v Stormers [Stormers win] but I don`t think it will be a bonus point job. Sharks v Bulls thats sudden death but I think Bulls. If Stormers win,and Crusaders get a bonus point win what then they both have same number of defeats.Would Crusaders go through because they beat Stormers previously?

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Post by Taylorman on Sun 12 Jun 2011, 3:40 am

Yeah thats about where I'm at with it Alan, the ties will come out of the wash during the week. Several scenarios...

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Post by Taylorman on Sun 12 Jun 2011, 6:57 pm

Rewatched the Blues Crusaders match and have to reiterate the value of Guilford popping up in the right places. Had a direct hand in 4 of the tries- scoring two. Perhaps guilty of both receiving then throwing a forward pass in the same movement but representative of a player taking it to the edge of the game.

Anyone who has doubts about his speed would be quietened after that display and I reckon pound for pound the most talented player in the NZ sxv.

If Blues and Crusaders both win this week I believe thats two home games... now that will help NZ's chances immeasurably. Still think the final will be in Brisbane but given a sniff of a final...


Last edited by Taylorman on Sun 12 Jun 2011, 6:59 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typo and edit)

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Post by Pete C (Kiwireddevil) on Sun 12 Jun 2011, 11:22 pm

Taylorman wrote:Rewatched the Blues Crusaders match and have to reiterate the value of Guilford popping up in the right places. Had a direct hand in 4 of the tries- scoring two. Perhaps guilty of both receiving then throwing a forward pass in the same movement but representative of a player taking it to the edge of the game.

Anyone who has doubts about his speed would be quietened after that display and I reckon pound for pound the most talented player in the NZ sxv.

If Blues and Crusaders both win this week I believe thats two home games... now that will help NZ's chances immeasurably. Still think the final will be in Brisbane but given a sniff of a final...

Guildford seems to be hitting form at just the right time. He did pretty well as last line of defence a couple of times too.
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Post by emack2 on Sun 12 Jun 2011, 11:44 pm

Marshall had a stand out game too,not a bad back up to Israel Dagg,any news on SBW `s injury?.Be interesting if Nonu`s threat to leave the country will effect SBW s decision.About staying to play for the All Blacks/Crusaders or return to Europe for cash.He`s young enough to go offshore for 2 years then come back for RWC 2015.BUT I doubt if he leaves AB`s in the lurch he will get a second chance.

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Post by Ozzy3213 on Sun 12 Jun 2011, 11:50 pm

Going to be an interesting final round. Injuries starting to really hit the Reds now, and I have just read that Berrick Barnes won't play for the Tahs this week, and could have to retire due to ongoing migraine problems.

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Post by Taylorman on Mon 13 Jun 2011, 1:11 am

Yes, very interesting round. Hurricanes will be revved for the Saders and may be a swansong for more than just Hore and Nonu with a potential immigration of a few. Man was that badly handled. Also silly of Hammet and co. to ignore the bustup comments earlier saying nothing was wrong. In this day and age where theres smoke theres usually fire.

Guilfords after match comments were hard case. Said Ranger and he'd been facebooking all week Ranger saying he was going to smash him one and Guilford telling him on field he left the field as he was chicken. All in jest of course!

Marshall did have a great game Alan and these back ups just seem to keep producing it. Theres something about that crusaders environment thats infectious and incomers must get such good support from day 1.

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