Scotland WC Chat - Part Deux

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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 24 Sep 2019, 10:09 am

First topic message reminder :

RDW wrote:FORWARDS (23)

John Barclay (Edinburgh) – 71 caps; Rugby World Cup 2007 and 2011
Simon Berghan (Edinburgh) – 19 caps
Jamie Bhatti (Glasgow Warriors) – 13 caps
Magnus Bradbury (Edinburgh) – 7 caps
Fraser Brown (Glasgow Warriors) – 42 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
Allan Dell (Edinburgh) – 22 caps
Matt Fagerson (Glasgow Warriors) – 3 caps
Zander Fagerson (Glasgow Warriors) – 19 caps
Grant Gilchrist (Edinburgh) – 33 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
Gary Graham (Newcastle Falcons) – 2 caps
Jonny Gray (Glasgow Warriors) – 51 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
Stuart McInally (Edinburgh) – 27 caps
Willem Nel (Edinburgh) – 29 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
Gordon Reid (London Irish) – 34 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
Jamie Ritchie (Edinburgh) – 10 caps
Sam Skinner (Exeter Chiefs) – 5 caps
Grant Stewart (Glasgow Warriors) – uncapped
Josh Strauss (Sale Sharks) – 22 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
Blade Thomson (Scarlets) – uncapped
Ben Toolis (Edinburgh) – 18 caps
George Turner (Glasgow Warriors) – 5 caps
Hamish Watson (Edinburgh) – 25 caps
Ryan Wilson (Glasgow Warriors) – 43 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015

BACKS (19)

Darcy Graham (Edinburgh) – 4 caps
Nick Grigg (Glasgow Warriors) – 9 caps
Chris Harris (Newcastle Falcons) – 8 caps
Adam Hastings (Glasgow Warriors) – 11 caps
Stuart Hogg (Glasgow Warriors) – 67 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
George Horne (Glasgow Warriors) – 4 caps
Pete Horne (Glasgow Warriors) – 41 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
Rory Hutchinson (Northampton Saints) – uncapped
Huw Jones (Glasgow Warriors) – 21 caps
Sam Johnson (Glasgow Warriors) – 4 caps
Blair Kinghorn (Edinburgh) – 11 caps
Greig Laidlaw (Clermont Auvergne) – 71 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
Sean Maitland (Saracens) – 40 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
Byron McGuigan (Sale Sharks) – 8 caps
Ali Price (Glasgow Warriors) – 24 caps
Henry Pyrgos (Edinburgh) – 27 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
Finn Russell (Racing 92) – 44 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
Tommy Seymour (Glasgow Warriors) – 50 caps; Rugby World Cup 2015
Duncan Taylor (Saracens) – 21 caps



World Cup Warmups

France V Scotland
Scotland V France
Georgia V Scotland
Scotland V Georgia

World Cup Fixtures

Ireland v Scotland
International Stadium Yokohama, Yokohama
Sunday 22nd September 2019
Kick Off: 8:45am

Scotland v Samoa
Kobe Misaki Stadium, Kobe
Monday 30th September 2019
Kick Off: 11:15am

Scotland v Russia
Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa, Shizuoka
Wednesday 9th October 2019
Kick Off: 8:15am

Japan v Scotland
International Stadium Yokohama, Yokohama
Sunday 13th October 2019
Kick Off: 11:45am

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Post by jimbopip on Sat 05 Oct 2019, 1:49 pm

Always look on the bright side,lads.
Japan faced up two restarts to put themselves under pressure.
They gave away about a dozen penalties and at least as many turnovers.
They missed 10% of their tackles.
We nilled Samoa.
Believe.

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Post by tigertattie on Sat 05 Oct 2019, 1:50 pm

Hold on. Glimmer of hope

We beat Japan but they get the BP

But, Ireland lose to Samoa with no BP

No? Just me?

Oh well
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Post by NeilyBroon on Sat 05 Oct 2019, 1:51 pm

Very true. Ok i think no team causes their fans more frustration. Apart from France although they at least put a few performances in at tournies.
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Post by Poorfour on Sat 05 Oct 2019, 1:52 pm

As Geech pointed out, Scotland now really need the bonus point against Russia - but equally need to try to keep something in reserve for Japan four days later.

They need to take 9 points more than Japan out of two games in a week. If they can do it, they will deserve to qualify. But it’s a big ask.
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Post by NeilyBroon on Sat 05 Oct 2019, 1:57 pm

I'll believe when I see it!

The guys need to have the game of their lives, away from home with the added pressure of going home if they don't win by more than 7 points or get four tries. Given our recent history, the odds are very much against us, in fact I'd actually be surprised if we won. That's not even considering the four day gap.

As i said, my comfort is, Japan join the top tier and get a deserved QF, and we lose the coach that has started another rotten period and hopefully get a new coaching team.
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Post by 123456789. on Sat 05 Oct 2019, 2:17 pm

So basically to win the world cup we probably need to pump the hosts, beat New Zealand, beat England, beat South Africa. Seems a veritable certainty to me, only hiccup could be Russia.

Ultimately if we were to play Japan at Murrayfield on a usual Saturday I'd be confident of putting them away by more than 7 and fewer than four tries. To be honest, I'd back us to do it against them away too. For goodness sake we beat them by 13 points in Japan with Ruaridh Jackson at fly-half and Hoyland on the wing. I don't think Japan are particularly good, if Samoa had managed that game better they easily could have won it. Japan's superior fitness saw them pull away at the end.

However there's the mitigating factors. Firstly, we have a four day turnaround. How do we fix that? Put as close as possible to a second 15 out and ensure players needed for the Sunday play as little as possible. Trusting that the boys will do the trick. I think they would manage. Secondly, they have the momentum on their side, a whole country willing them on and probably the entire rugby community south of Hadrian's wall. How do we fix that? Start fast and let the pressure build up on them. Two early scores will silence the crowd and sensible game management will see us through. Thirdly, this is a must win, do or die, all or nothing, death or glory test for us. And how do we do in these games? Horrendously, the only time I think we've won a high pressure game in recent years was Samoa in 2015, before that you go back to 2007 against Italy or 2003 against Fiji. The last big, big game for us was England away in 2017 when England put 60 points on us. I think the only consolation is that there's ten times the pressure on Japan as there is on us.

I think we could do it, and I think if we were any country in the world other than Scotland we would probably do it. The road to world cup glory is a doddle from there...

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Post by jimbopip on Sat 05 Oct 2019, 3:52 pm

Samoa were 14 points behind with about 10 minutes to go and had all the momentum. They had a penalty under the posts, the ref must have been thinking yellow card for the next Japan penalty, and Samoa blew it.
A better disciplined, more organized side would have scored there.
This Japan side are very bearable. They remind me of Scotland: they will always look to score tries, they love getting the ball wide and their defence, on occasion, has more holes than tigertattie's string vest.
Two tries came from silly penalties kicked to the corner and a driving maul. 😮 We're more disciplined than Samoa and our lineout defence is better organised.
All around the world children were asking their parents, " Not straight! Feeding! Is that a thing? Is that ref on drugs?" I can't see that happening to us.
I believe we have the beating of them. Ironically we probably will need to pretend we're Wales or Ireland strangling the life out of Scotland and scoring tries off their mistakes.
Believe.

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Post by miaow on Sat 05 Oct 2019, 7:08 pm

Japan look good but if - IF, IF, IF - Scotland decide to have a go at them up front, I think they can win fairly comfortable. You just have to be willing to run hard at them, and then go wide, then tighten it back up. Not quite play them at their own game, but just grind them. Ireland were too ponderous, no other team has been accurate enough. I still think Japan can be bullied - a bit like Scotland, frankly - but that's your opportunity.

If the players play with courage and belief - all things Japan will have - they can win fairly easily. It's just 'if'.

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Post by bsando on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 6:13 pm

This world cup feels like impending doom from a Scottish perspective. SA or NZ will be in that QF so it's hard to imagine how Scotland are going to get past either of those sides. Then there's the whole process of getting there in the first place with Japan looking more likely to qualify now due to Scotland needing a winning BP and denying a LBP to Japan.

In my mind, Japan vs Scotland will be Scotland's last match and they will win it, but lose out on the required BP's like Japan in 2015. It'll be a funny way to go out considering only one loss will have cost the team that QF berth. I wouldn't be especially upset to be honest, Japan the newest host nation, playing NZ in a quarter final will be such a spectacular game. They've played so well after their ropey start against Russia on the opening day so fair play to them.

Obviously upsets do happen and I am always hopeful, but I think that is how it's gonna pan out for Scotland this RWC.

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Post by miaow on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 6:20 pm

Scotland cannot give Japan 2 losing bonus points - 7 points and 4 tries. If they fail to score 4 tries and win themselves, they cannot afford to give Japan 1 losing bonus point.

What's the safe option here? Or the 'best' option? Try and grind out a 19-9 victory? Or just go hell for leather, try and score 1 more try than Japan, and hope you kick enough goals to stay 8+ points ahead?

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Post by RDW on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 6:24 pm

We need a BP regardless miaow so we're going to have to go hell for leather.

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Post by miaow on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 7:05 pm

Isn't it a 4 point game if you pick up 5 points against Russia? And who goes through gets decided on the head to head - so Scotland can draw on overall points but go through?

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Post by RDW on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 7:25 pm

You're right it's not as bad as I thought. I had in my head we needed a BP!

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Post by majesticimperialman on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 7:51 pm

RDW wrote:You're right it's not as bad as I thought. I had in my head we needed a BP!

What you need most of all from Scotland is a bloody good performance. The bonus point/s can come later.

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Post by jimbopip on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 8:55 pm

RDW wrote:You're right it's not as bad as I thought. I had in my head we needed a BP!


I wondered how long it would take you... Laugh Whistle Doh

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Post by RDW on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 9:05 pm

jimbopip wrote:
RDW wrote:You're right it's not as bad as I thought. I had in my head we needed a BP!


I wondered how long it would take you... Laugh Whistle Doh

I'm still right about Japan's BP being a big deal though - if they hadn't got that it wouldn't matter what we beat them by! As long as they didn't get two BPs...

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Post by miaow on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 9:21 pm

Definitely makes a big difference. The worry is doing nothing about the bonus point issue - 'let's just play the game' - and then trying to adapt on the fly. If it's a low scoring game, suddenly you try and contain and just win by 10 points instead of doing for tries. Or if it's open, then going all out to make sure you try and get a try bonus yourself.

Maybe Scotland aren't in a position to do so, but if they want to show quality and leadership, you'd hope the key players have spoken about the bonus point issue (post Russia, ofc) and have some sort of plan in place. You'd think, with both teams' skillsets, it's more likely to be who can outscore the other, with both teams going for tries. But it's an interesting side story to the main event, and definitely makes it harder for Scotland. If all they needed was a 1 point win you'd be much more confident. Now they need to win by 8, score 4 and concede 3 or less, or score 4 and concede 4 while winning by 8+. That added mental 'what if' will play a part.

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Post by jimbopip on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 9:24 pm

Look back at what I wrote... in essence if we're in control we will score tries; if we're not they will. Bonus points; LBP or TBPs will be pretty irrelevant.
We are better than them: Samoa never laid a glove on us but had them on the ropes at various points in the game. a better side would have put them away.
If we get on top early we will pull away as the game goes on. If we allow them to control the game they will score tries, the crowd will get manic and we will struggle to get back in the game.
One way or another I don't see bonus points entering into the equation. Granted it is possible that it could happen, but it is also possible that Boris Johnson might stop being a pathological liar.

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Post by miaow on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 9:32 pm

I wouldn't use results against other teams as barometer tho, jim. Ireland dominated Scotland and then got deservedly taken apart second half by Japan, after all.

Think Scottish fans are being a touch pessimistic - understandably so - and it should be a nice clash of similar styles of rugby. But Scotland have enough in the tank to beat Japan if they play with courage, aren't afraid to make creative mistakes, but don't shirk the gritty stuff.

We'll have to wait and see how bonus points change things. I think in a game like this, 2 or 3 tries each is the mos tlikely situation.

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Post by tigertattie on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 9:32 pm

It will be our luck that we win the game 45 - 39 resulting in Japan going through
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Post by jimbopip on Sun 06 Oct 2019, 9:41 pm

Catman, I agree with what you say about not putting too much store on results against other sides; Ireland shut us down and we didn't show enough patience or control to open them up.
We were smarter against Samoa.
Japan will play the way they have in every game so far. Both Russia and Samoa had plenty of possession and opportunities to score. If they are that generous to us we should put them away.

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Post by NeilyBroon on Mon 07 Oct 2019, 6:36 am

I dunno, Samoa were pretty generous to us and we only just scraped the bonus! (Yes I know we nilled them but i think they did over half that job themselves).

Just have to see how it goes against russia. Knowing scotland we will give ourselves the task of beating japan by a bonus point with no lbps by failing to get one against Russia.

We have ourselves to blame completely as it's been taken out of our hands through the failure to pick up a point against ireland. A lot of the fans knew it would be important to even before the tournament then all we got was that abysmal performance and the usual from camp "oh we dunno why we didn't show up, the prep was great" etc etc.

Basically lets not count chickens until we play russia. Ireland struggled to get the bonus so it could prove tricky for us too considering our attack is now as patient as a toddler in the sweets aisle of tesco.

But no longer pessimistic, I am looking forward to 2023 already 😂.

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Post by RDW on Wed 09 Oct 2019, 1:52 pm

So looking ahead to the Japan game (if it goes ahead!) I don't think today's result changes much in terms of squad selection, especially the starting XV.

The main players to put their hands up - Horne and Hasting - will almost certainly start on the bench now. Fagerson and Berghan got 40 minutes each and it's a 50/50 call between them. I would go for Berghan for his superior scrummaging - Fagerson has looked flakey in the scrums and the last thing we need is him conceding a late penalty that gives them a losing BP. This assumes Dell is fit, if not then both will be on the bench.

2nd row sub is 50/50 too but Cummings hasn't done much wrong so I suspect he'll be picked again. Neither really stood out over the other against Russia.

Backrow wise neither Barclay or Wilson did enough to put them in the running for a starting spot so they'll have to fight it out for the bench.

In the backs Taylor did well so it will be a huge decision to pick him or Hastings. I would stick with Hastings with Taylor bench. Graham has cemented his place on the wing - all Seymour did was touch down the kick through!

My 23

1 Dell
2 McInally
3 Nel
4 Gilchrist
5 Gray
6 Bradbury
7 Ritchie
8 Thomson

9 Laidlaw
10 Russell
11 Maitland
12 Johnson
13 Harries
14 Graham
15 Hogg

Subs - Reid, Brown, Berghan, Cummings, Wilson, Horne, Hastings, Taylor

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Post by LondonTiger on Wed 09 Oct 2019, 1:55 pm

NeilyBroon wrote:
But no longer pessimistic, I am looking forward to 2023 already 😂.


Have you seen the standard of your U20 teams recently? Run

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Post by BigGee on Wed 09 Oct 2019, 2:08 pm

The match is currently looking very iffy!

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Post by EWT Spoons on Wed 09 Oct 2019, 2:20 pm

RDW - Largely agree with your team, but I'd have either Turner or Barclay on the bench ahead of Wilson. I saw Wilson do next to nothing in the Russia game other than knock on a couple of times. I have no idea how he keeps getting games.

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Post by RDW on Wed 09 Oct 2019, 2:25 pm

Yeah it pained me to pick Wilson but Barclay has looked like he's needed oxygen after 2 minutes during each game - can't see him lasting the pace of Japan if he came on!

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Post by tigertattie on Wed 09 Oct 2019, 2:26 pm

EWT Spoons wrote:RDW - Largely agree with your team, but I'd have either Turner or Barclay on the bench ahead of Wilson.  I saw Wilson do next to nothing in the Russia game other than knock on a couple of times.  I have no idea how he keeps getting games.

You clearly missed when he just lay on top of a Russian player on the ground where not only did he concede the penalty for doing so, but also stopped one of the Scottish players getting a turn over.

A truely outstanding rank average at best player. Should never be in a Scotland shirt again.

Backrow for Japan is Bradbury Blade and Ritchie with Barclay on the bench covering the flanks with Bradbury moving to 8 if Blade comes off.
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Post by BigGee on Wed 09 Oct 2019, 2:28 pm

Taylor injured his thumb apparently and is doubtful. Might mean Seymour or Kinghorn comes onto the bench.

Zander Fagerson got pulled fairly early on and had a decent game, so I think he gets the TH bench spot.

I would probably go with Barclay on the bench as well.

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Post by EWT Spoons on Wed 09 Oct 2019, 2:42 pm

See i wonder how fit Turner is.  If he's recovered in time, I'd have him on the bench to cover hooker and brown covering the BR. Especially as McInally is pretty likely to play 80 mins (or close enough) anyway

Berghan is possibly more likely to take a bench spot ahead of Zander, just due to him in theory being able to cover both sides of the scrum.

If Taylor is out, then I'd imagine P Horne will take the bench spot

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Post by BigGee on Wed 09 Oct 2019, 2:50 pm

EWT Spoons wrote:
If Taylor is out, then I'd imagine P Horne will take the bench spot

I don't think you need Horne P on the bench if you have Hastings, who could come on at 10 and let FR move out to 12, we have done that before and it is probably a better attacking formation if we are chasing the game.

Hastings played well at 10 today, kicked sensibly and challenged the line, took his tries well as well. Probably worthy of MoM, though Georgie and Darcy played well also.

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Post by EWT Spoons on Wed 09 Oct 2019, 2:57 pm

BigGee wrote:
EWT Spoons wrote:
If Taylor is out, then I'd imagine P Horne will take the bench spot

I don't think you need Horne P on the bench .

You could have stopped there Very Happy

I agree with your point, I'm not saying I would have Horne P on the bench, it just seems like what Toonie would do.

Personally I'd have Kinghorn (or preferably one of the centres he left at home), as Seymour seems a bit off at the moment. Mind you as we saw today (i get the difference in quality between Russia and Japan) G. Horne can do a job on the wing, so maybe the other Horne comes into the mix again.

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Post by jimbopip on Wed 09 Oct 2019, 4:23 pm

The problem is that, careful how I word this, we are likely to be short at 13; Furra Line is at his best at 12, a good club 10 and not terribly good at 13.
Most likely The Hardest Working Man In Rugby will start at 13. If we have Furra Linee on the bench then Johnson has to shift to 13 if anything happens to THWMIR. Johnston isn't bad at 13 but the Furra-Johnson pairing hasn't been overwhelmingly successful at Scotstoun.
Tonie could go with Hornito, Haircut and Seymour on the bench with Hogg coming up to 13 and Seymour on at 15.

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