SF2 - Match Thread - WALES v SOUTH AFRICA - 27/10/19 - K/O 09:00 GMT

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Post by miaow on Thu 17 Oct 2019, 9:56 pm

Again, making these early for the sake of ease and consistency.

WALES

Team:Halfpenny; North, J Davies, Parkes, Adams; Biggar, G Davies; Wyn Jones, Owens, Francis, Ball, Alun Wyn Jones (capt), Wainwright, Moriarty, Tipuric.

Replacements: Dee, R Carre, D Lewis, Beard, Shingler, T Williams, Patchell, Watkin.

SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa: Le Roux; Nkosi, Am, De Allende, Mapimpi; Pollard, De Klerk; Mtawarira, Mbonambi, Malherbe, Etzebeth, De Jager, Kolisi (capt), Du Toit, Vermeulen

Replacements: Marx, Kitschoff, Koch, Snyman, Mostert, Louw, H Jantjies, Steyn



Venue: Yokohama
Referee:
AR1:
AR2:
TMO:


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Post by majesticimperialman on Thu 17 Oct 2019, 10:03 pm

QF3 France. Think France will put in the better performance.

QF4 Japan. SA will be strong, but i think Japan's fitness could be the key.

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Post by miaow on Sun 20 Oct 2019, 4:44 pm

Close, maj - but not quite.

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Post by majesticimperialman on Sun 20 Oct 2019, 5:09 pm

That why i stopped betting on the horses. Never win any thing.

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Post by maestegmafia on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 8:54 am

majesticimperialman wrote:That why i stopped betting on the horses. Never win any thing.

Was it the drink again?

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Post by TightHEAD on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 9:26 am

The SA scrum could well be Wales undoing.

Any news on JD2, as to win you'll need him, hope he makes it.
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Post by Gooseberry on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 9:35 am

Think their own passing is a bigger concern.

Wales will need to step up a gear. The disruption to their backs through injuries along with the coaching issues cant be helping. The magic sponge could dictate how strong a chance they have in this one.

It's been a tough ride so far but Wales do seem to be winning games whilst looking off, very different to 2011 where they looked good and lost tight games against the top sides.

SA too seem to be struggling a bit to know what their best side actually is and not entirely clicking. It's still much better than some of the disjointed dross theyve served up over the last few years though.

Dont want to try and call this one till I see how much Wales are affected by injuries.

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Post by Old Man on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 9:47 am

Rassie knows exactly what his best side is, the rotation during the pool rounds was just to manage players.

South Africa has one main issue, what exactly is their attack plan?

The game plan is simple, have two packs of forwards, incidentally, it doesn’t really matter which forwards are on the bench or starting, they are all formidable in the set piece, scrums, lineouts and contact area.

It is just a matter of which opponent attracts which starting combination, there are a number of those forwards who are skilled runners and more mobile than you think.

South Africa will aim once again to provide 80 minutes of non stop physicality.

Their defense is looking good and improving with every test as the combinations are starting to click, consider Am, Kolbe and Mapimpi came into this RWC with les than a dozen tests under their belts.

I don’t know whether Rassie is holding back, but his basic attack plan of direct running needs some improvement, shifting the point of the ball carrier, varying the play and getting more ball to his wings.

This will be atough test match, Wales should be confident due to their recent performances against the Boks, no doubt Boks are the underdogs regardless of what the bookies say.

Rassie mentioned the two test matches he played vs Wales wasn’t his first choice as the match in USA he had to split two squads in preparation for the England test and the other Welsh test he didn’t have his overseas players available.

Excuses or not, this will be his first choice 23 that he has built over the past 20 months.

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Post by Taylorman on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 10:05 am

I think the Japan match did SA a lot of good. They ran at them with pace and vigour in a way the remaining three sides would. Eventually the Boks rolled over them which I totally expected but ending strong after a fast start is a good result for the Boks.

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Post by Poorfour on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 11:09 am

It's hard not to favour South Africa for this one.

Wales may have "forgotten how to lose" (tm) [1], and their defence is remarkably resilient, but there are too many parts of their game that just aren't working. Both tries on Sunday came from turnovers that coincided with poor decisions by the French, and they didn't really look like scoring beyond that. Their scrum has looked vulnerable all the way through, and while the Bok unit isn't without flaws, it is extremely powerful.

Add to that the way the Boks absorbed Japan's relentless energy and broke them down to score some excellent tries, and I think we will see an attritional game that will ultimately swing South Afrifca's way unless Wales can bring something new in attack.

----
[1] Except at Twickenham in the warm ups, and against Ireland. Twice.
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Post by TightHEAD on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 11:09 am

Navidi out.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50123273
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Post by George Carlin on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 11:43 am

Interesting recent head to head. Look at how close the results have been:

29 November 2014
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
12–6 to Wales

17 October 2015
Twickenham Stadium, London, England
23–19 to South Africa

26 November 2016
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
27–13 to Wales

2 December 2017
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
24–22 to Wales

2 June 2018
RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C., United States
20–22 to Wales

24 November 2018
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
20–11 to Wales
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Post by The Oracle on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 11:48 am

And don’t forget we’ve been holding something back! Whistle
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Post by maestegmafia on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 11:59 am

The Oracle wrote:And don’t forget we’ve been holding something back! Whistle

Whether we have or not doesn’t matter, we keep winning whether us or the opposition are playing well. Ifkeep that game plan going we can’t lose.

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Post by The Oracle on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 12:04 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
The Oracle wrote:And don’t forget we’ve been holding something back! Whistle

Whether we have or not doesn’t matter, we keep winning whether us or the opposition are playing well. Ifkeep that game plan going we can’t lose.

It was a joke Maes. From the warm up games where we, jokingly, claimed we lost some games due to holding something back and not wanting to show all of our cards!
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Post by Afro on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 12:08 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
The Oracle wrote:And don’t forget we’ve been holding something back! Whistle

Whether we have or not doesn’t matter, we keep winning whether us or the opposition are playing well. Ifkeep that game plan going we can’t lose.

Laugh like that philosophy. Our game plan is to win, if we stick to that we won't lose
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Post by maestegmafia on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 12:16 pm

Afro wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
The Oracle wrote:And don’t forget we’ve been holding something back! Whistle

Whether we have or not doesn’t matter, we keep winning whether us or the opposition are playing well. Ifkeep that game plan going we can’t lose.

Laugh like that philosophy. Our game plan is to win, if we stick to that we won't lose

Simple always best. I remember a very well respected kiwi youth rugby coach giving an open q&a  years ago, someone asked for his philosophy on winning at rugby. He said “in its simplest form, start well then defend like crazy”.

As another Famous kiwi once said, “rugby is about thirty big blokes going hell for leather at each other for 80 minutes, then the All Blacks win.” Though he had obviously not seen the Japan vs SA game yesterday.

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Post by George Carlin on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 1:00 pm

The Oracle wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
The Oracle wrote:And don’t forget we’ve been holding something back! Whistle

Whether we have or not doesn’t matter, we keep winning whether us or the opposition are playing well. Ifkeep that game plan going we can’t lose.

It was a joke Maes. From the warm up games where we, jokingly, claimed we lost some games due to holding something back and not wanting to show all of our cards!
Scotland held a lot back too which Toonie has promised to show at the 2023 Six Nations. Quaver in fear, biatches.
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Post by maestegmafia on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 2:05 pm

George Carlin wrote:
The Oracle wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
The Oracle wrote:And don’t forget we’ve been holding something back! Whistle

Whether we have or not doesn’t matter, we keep winning whether us or the opposition are playing well. Ifkeep that game plan going we can’t lose.

It was a joke Maes. From the warm up games where we, jokingly, claimed we lost some games due to holding something back and not wanting to show all of our cards!
Scotland held a lot back too which Toonie has promised to show at the 2023 Six Nations. Quaver in fear, biatches.

It’s all about holding back. Play as little of what you can do in training, never you show the opposition your potential.

Scotland are ranked number 1. The darkest of dark horses, even black beauty is jealous of their complete bituminous success.

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Post by maestegmafia on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 3:01 pm

The Oracle wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
The Oracle wrote:And don’t forget we’ve been holding something back! Whistle

Whether we have or not doesn’t matter, we keep winning whether us or the opposition are playing well. Ifkeep that game plan going we can’t lose.

It was a joke Maes. From the warm up games where we, jokingly, claimed we lost some games due to holding something back and not wanting to show all of our cards!

I know mine too

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Post by miaow on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 5:52 pm

One thing that's interesting about this is how the Boks approached the Japan game.

Jamie Joseph said he knew Ireland would play harder and faster and angrier when frustrated, to try and do the same 'but more', and better. From the off - from the anthem - SA were focused, quiet, determined. One scuffle between Leitch and a Bok early on was about it - they didn't want to play with blood and thunder, they didn't try and meet Japanese flair with South African fury.

Rassie Erasmus is a world class coach, in my opinion. Wales have beaten SA when they've had probably their worst ever coach in charge of the national side. Yes, Erasmus was in charge for 2 games last year, but this is a RWC, it's different.

SA will get the mental, physical, and emotional level for this game spot on. They're likely to be up for playing hard, straight, and relatively fast. Give Wales the defensive test.

It might end up being a really ugly game of rugby, but I just think Erasmus makes the difference now, and with Wales struggling for numbers and quality in key positions, I think it will take a huge dose of fortune to win this game, sadly.

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Post by Pie on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 6:08 pm

TightHEAD wrote:The SA scrum could well be Wales undoing.

Any news on JD2, as to win you'll need him, hope he makes it.

He's not in the scrum you buffoon WUM

Unnecessary insult breaking Site Rules 1 & 3


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Post by Pie on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 6:10 pm

TightHEAD wrote:The SA scrum could well be Wales undoing.

Any news on JD2, as to win you'll need him, hope he makes it.

And if I were you id be more worried about the Blacks who are going to have England for breakfast

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Post by Pie on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 6:12 pm

I'd bring Lane straight onto the bench for this one

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Post by Scottrf on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 7:30 pm

Hardest game to call of the knockout stages for me. Wales won’t play as badly again but I’d still put SA as slight favourites. At the moment.

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Post by majesticimperialman on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 7:39 pm

Having watched both game's this week end. i think South Africa will be the winner this week.

Wales struggled to beat a 14 man France side until a bit of luck with 5 minutes to go.

Wales may have a strong defence but they are not scoring try's.

It as been said the Wales have won their last 4/5 games against SA, but right now i do believe that does not matter this is a RWC, and that is all that matters.

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Post by LondonTiger on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 8:25 pm

TightHEAD wrote:The SA scrum could well be Wales undoing.

Any news on JD2, as to win you'll need him, hope he makes it.

While the Welsh scrum seems like a weakness they have so far managed to more than hold their own.

Wales would prefer JD2 to be fit and available. Is it a complete game changer? Probably not but all teams want their best players available, and on top form he is a World Class centre.

I think Wales have enough to win this as their aggressive defence should force SA into mistakes.

My main fear for them is at 10. Biggar took an early knock against France and seemed to be struggling, but Gats does not seem to trust Patchell.

While Wales are not the most creative side, so what. As Wayne Smith said over the weekend, you cannot look to copy any other team as then you are just an inferior copy. Any team needs to find it's own method. There are multiple ways to play rugby, all equally valid, and Gats has got his team playing in a way that wins matches. This is not gymnastics and points are not awarded for style.

Good luck Wales, I think you are the better team.

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Post by Afro on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 9:08 pm

I am more confident about Wales than I am about England.

Think Wales are better than the Springboks if both on their day, but they need to step up their performance on what we have seen so far to win.

England are playing well, but it’s NZ and there’s no harder proposition. I think someone said earlier NZ win 7/10. I agree with that and just pray it’s one of the other 3!!!
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Post by The Oracle on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 9:20 pm

Scottrf wrote:Hardest game to call of the knockout stages for me. Wales won’t play as badly again but I’d still put SA as slight favourites. At the moment.

Very generous of you Scott, but me being my usual pessimistic self as a Wales supporter I can’t see it being hard to call at all - I feel SA are clear favourites based on current form. Agree that I hope we won’t/can’t play as bad again. But we said that after Uruguay too, albeit with different players! It could be the favourites tag though. That never sits well with us. It’s a real mental thing that we must get over. So to go in as ‘underdogs’ hopefully that gives us a bit of extra impetus. But Wales have put together only a small amount of good rugby this World Cup. 20 mins v Oz, first half v Georgia, fits and starts v Fiji, nothing v Uruguay (!), virtually nothing v France. It could mean a big performance brewing. Or it could mean that we’ve peaked too early, run out of ideas, and are done for the Gatland era! Would be a sad end to what has been a good tenure overall for Gatland.


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Post by quinsforever on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 10:01 pm

would love to see wales win this one. but i worry about biggar at 10. he was fairly random against france and maybe has had one too many knocks to the head recently?

heart says Cymru, head says SA.

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Post by maestegmafia on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 10:20 pm

LondonTiger wrote:
TightHEAD wrote:The SA scrum could well be Wales undoing.

Any news on JD2, as to win you'll need him, hope he makes it.

While the Welsh scrum seems like a weakness they have so far managed to more than hold their own.

Wales would prefer JD2 to be fit and available. Is it a complete game changer? Probably not but all teams want their best players available, and on top form he is a World Class centre.

I think Wales have enough to win this as their aggressive defence should force SA into mistakes.

My main fear for them is at 10. Biggar took an early knock against France and seemed to be struggling, but Gats does not seem to trust Patchell.

While Wales are not the most creative side, so what. As Wayne Smith said over the weekend, you cannot look to copy any other team as then you are just an inferior copy. Any team needs to find it's own method. There are multiple ways to play rugby, all equally valid, and Gats has got his team playing in a way that wins matches. This is not gymnastics and points are not awarded for style.

Good luck Wales, I think you are the better team.

Good synopsis LT

The scrum has been an issue but looked good against France, wouldn’t have got the turn over opportunity at the weekend if we hadn’t pushed them back in the scrum on their out in.

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Post by maestegmafia on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 10:22 pm

majesticimperialman wrote:Having watched both game's this week end. i think South Africa will be the winner this week.

Wales struggled to beat a 14 man France side until a bit of luck with 5 minutes to go.

Wales may have a strong defence but they are not scoring try's.

It as been said the Wales have won their last 4/5 games against SA, but right now i do believe that does not matter this is a RWC, and that is all that matters.

That’s ok, you said France were going to beat us scoring 30 points last week.

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Post by majesticimperialman on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 10:32 pm

maestegmafia

Yes i did say France would score 30 points. 

But i also (EXPECTED) Wales to put in  better performance than they did. especially  against a France team that was down to 14 men  on the field.

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Post by miaow on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 10:52 pm

I'm sure those 2 points made sense when you thought of them, maj...lost in translation, perhaps.

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Post by Taylorman on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 11:40 pm

majesticimperialman wrote:maestegmafia

Yes i did say France would score 30 points. 

But i also (EXPECTED) Wales to put in  better performance than they did. especially  against a France team that was down to 14 men  on the field.

You think?

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Post by Poorfour on Mon 21 Oct 2019, 11:55 pm

maestegmafia wrote:The scrum has been an issue but looked good against France, wouldn’t have got the turn over opportunity at the weekend if we hadn’t pushed them back in the scrum on their out in.

Don’t forget that but that point France had been down a forward for 20 minutes and were making some bizarre decisions like not having anyone at 8 (for their attacking scrum near your line) or having a back at 8 (for the one that got turned over). 

Given the power of the South African tight 5 - and the quality of the replacements they can bring on - I would still be quite worried in your shoes.
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Post by Taylorman on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 12:00 am

The Boks will definitely gain confidence from the Wales effort which was below average in terms of closing the match out sooner. That was nowhere near World champion quality rugby.

But they will come back from that (they can't get any worse surely) and their fighting qualities that seemed to dessert them this match should return. Gats is the right man for sorting this going forward. He brought the Lons back when they looked out of sorts in the first test in NZ and won the third test in Oz, on both occasions reversing the form of his entire side.

Wales have also had a long run of success and the French reminder may be all they need. So there's value in the French match.

Not picking the winner just yet (even though the score thingy is there) but I can see both sides getting up for this for various reasons and I think it will come down to just how smart the coaches are in their respective prep.

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Post by miaow on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 12:40 am

Scrums are hard to call these days. It seems we're back to lots of good old cheating, instead of 'the hit' being the kingmaker. It makes it more interesting, frankly, as teams are usually less obviously dominant. The Boks' scrum didn't look outstanding against Japan, but, again, I'd imagine the sheer weight and power of the SA pack - particularly when Jake Ball goes off - will be a worry for Wales.

I think people are also making a lot out of the red card when, in reality, it wasn't the huge bonus it perhaps seems. Red card happened in the 49th minute. Wales had played from the 30th to the 40th minute with 14. So 32 minutes a 'man down' becomes 22 minutes with a man down for France. That's one quarter of the game v the three quarters in 2011 - I know parallels are drawn between the two, but it's not entirely fair/accurate.

Add in how little time the ball spent in play - fair play to France there - the week off as well as France didn't seem to tire as quickly as you'd expect they would, and although Wales were effectively the only team playing rugby after the red card, this wasn't the 'failure' to put away 14 men it might appear to be. Still, not good enough to win a RWC, and have to up it against the Boks, but I'd be more worried about specific details and instances in the game - absolutely not helped by a shocking referee who, when you watch it back, had a horrible game, for both teams, but Wales in particular - than the overall game itself. Still got the job done, as we now have a talent to do where once we were the kings of the last minute defeat.

If we keep it close against the Boks, with Biggar's boot, there's always a chance. Won't forget how devastated he was to leave the field injured in 2015 when Wales were winning, or had just conceded late on. Many, many players also have a sense of payback for the Boks here. No love lost in this game, both physical, a bit boring, and will both respect the oppositon enough to probably keep it as tight as possible.

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Post by Taylorman on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 12:46 am

'I think people are also making a lot out of the red card when, in reality, it wasn't the huge bonus it perhaps seems. Red card happened in the 49th minute. Wales had played from the 30th to the 40th minute with 14. So 32 minutes a 'man down' becomes 22 minutes with a man down for France. That's one quarter of the game v the three quarters in 2011 - I know parallels are drawn between the two, but it's not entirely fair/accurate.'

Aha. And when did Wales finally score the forward pass oriented try off the pack without the 15th man in it- during those 22 minutes huh?

Gotta agree, its not entirely fair/accurate.

Its simple, Wales got 'incredibly' lucky. Just say it, and all will be better... Very Happy

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Post by Pie on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 2:52 am

majesticimperialman wrote:Having watched both game's this week end. i think South Africa will be the winner this week.

Wales struggled to beat a 14 man France side until a bit of luck with 5 minutes to go.

Wales may have a strong defence but they are not scoring try's.

It as been said the Wales have won their last 4/5 games against SA, but right now i do believe that does not matter this is a RWC, and that is all that matters.

Agreed they only scored another 2 on the weekend and have one of the highest scoring players in Josh Adams

Get yourself to an Optician

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Post by BigTrevsbigmac on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 6:08 am

Should really be the third/ fourt play off game.

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Post by Poorfour on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 6:17 am

Pie wrote:
Agreed they only scored another 2 on the weekend and have one of the highest scoring players in Josh Adams

Get yourself to an Optician

They scored 2, from first phase off turnovers - and with help from some French positional decisions that a decent schoolboy team would be embarrassed by.

The Boks scored 3, England 4, the All Blacks 7. A couple of England’s were interceptions, but most of those tries were well constructed phase play.

It’s not an unreasonable criticism to point out that Wales aren’t creating as much in attack as the other semi-finalists. Even against Australia in the pool stages, Wales scored two tries to the Aussies’ three. Wales have scored 19 tries in total so far; South Africa 30; England 21 and New Zealand 34 off one fewer game each.

Sure, defence wins Championships - but the other remaining teams in the tournament can both defend and attack. Gatland may have an answer to that, but we haven’t seen much evidence of it so far.
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Post by Taylorman on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 6:27 am

Good points. Don’t see the point in trying to put lipstick on a pig. Hardly going to fool anyone, least of all the Boks.

They’ll know exactly what Wales weaknesses are and will already be plotting their downfall. Wales appear to be a little stage struck this side of the knockouts, making everything look so hard.

But they do have the ambush factor potential on their side.

And Gats.

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Post by No 7&1/2 on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 6:33 am

Both teams are hardly free flowing in attack. I think de Allende may be the guy who shifts the balance. Obviously a fantastically strong and direct runner but Wales midfield defence has been iffy so far. If he gets some good ball may end up being a tough game for wales.

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Post by Mr Fishpaste on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 6:40 am

I see Garces is reffing SA vs Wales...

...let me change my prediction...Wales to win it.

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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 6:41 am

Jerome Garces appointed to referee this game.

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Post by Old Man on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 6:55 am

With Garces refereeing the scrums are going to be a nightmare, It will halt any potential rythm.

The potential for getting carded jumps astronomically.

Rucks will be a mess with potentially weird calls.

Wales are very good at disrupting rucks in a negative way, bodies will be flopping in the collective onto the ground, Garces will be staring into the headlights of an oncoming vehicle, Scrums will reset again and again.

As much as South Africa and Wales don’t have a free flowing attack, the potential of this match becoming a stop start affair will be attributed to Garces as much as negative tactics.

It will be a game of attrition and a frustrating match for supporters.

The team who wins here will be the one that manages to pull the wool over Garces’ eyes.

It sounds like it will be a wet match as well.

Expect a borefest with low scoring, negative tactics and someone is going to win this with penalties.

Sadly that is how I see this match going.

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Post by No 7&1/2 on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 7:10 am

Shame barnes isnt getting the chance to bow out being the main guy in the middle.

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Post by LondonTiger on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 7:44 am

No 7&1/2 wrote:Shame barnes isnt getting the chance to bow out being the main guy in the middle.

Actually a pretty good chance he will get the final. If it is England/Wales Garces (am assuming Peyper is on the naughty step) will ref. New Zealand/Wales then Barnes will ref. New Zealand/SA probably Barnes (they seem to like giving the final to a guy who did a 1/4 but not a semi). England/SA would probably be Owens.

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Post by No 7&1/2 on Tue 22 Oct 2019, 7:48 am

Keep forgetting about the 3rd 4th playoff. Rubbish game.

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