SF2 - Match Thread - WALES v SOUTH AFRICA - 27/10/19 - K/O 09:00 GMT

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Post by miaow on Thu 17 Oct 2019, 9:56 pm

First topic message reminder :

Again, making these early for the sake of ease and consistency.

WALES

Team:Halfpenny; North, J Davies, Parkes, Adams; Biggar, G Davies; Wyn Jones, Owens, Francis, Ball, Alun Wyn Jones (capt), Wainwright, Moriarty, Tipuric.

Replacements: Dee, R Carre, D Lewis, Beard, Shingler, T Williams, Patchell, Watkin.

SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa: Le Roux; Nkosi, Am, De Allende, Mapimpi; Pollard, De Klerk; Mtawarira, Mbonambi, Malherbe, Etzebeth, De Jager, Kolisi (capt), Du Toit, Vermeulen

Replacements: Marx, Kitschoff, Koch, Snyman, Mostert, Louw, H Jantjies, Steyn



Venue: Yokohama
Referee:
AR1:
AR2:
TMO:


Last edited by miaow on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 1:51 pm; edited 3 times in total

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Post by Taylorman on Wed 23 Oct 2019, 9:26 pm

maestegmafia wrote:To be honest I can’t think of a single game where you wouldn’t want to score first...!

As an AB fan I’ve long been comfortable with other sides scoring first.

First of all, it wakes the side up. Whatever has happened in prep before the match nothing brings a side into the match more than standing as 15 under the posts a couple of minutes into a test. So as a fan we say, right, welcome to the test, now get on with it.

Think you’ll find that we probably score first less than 50% of the time.

But as an AB fan you know for a fact that the floodgates aren’t going to open because of that start. In rare cases they have, Irelands 2013 start was nightmarish...the first was ok, the second bearable but the third inside half an hour!

Na. That can’t be happening. It sure woke them up though, the last minute was one of the most accurate passages of play for 60 meters Ive seen.

It’s reasonable too, because at no time are the two teams more equal. At the start. No ones heaving throwing running, jumping etc. aerobically they’re all just people.

ABs base their game on running the other side down. Can’t do that in the first minute or two. Ten it’s possible 30 more likely.

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Post by miaow on Wed 23 Oct 2019, 9:30 pm

maestegmafia wrote:To be honest I can’t think of a single game where you wouldn’t want to score first...!

Particularly as it feels like there's been a return to the psychological pressure of being 'nilled' midway/late in to the first half, if not longer, in recent years.

We've sort of lost the model of both teams 'building the scoreboard'.

In many ways, rugby is actually really exciting at the moment, as it's harder to predict. Lots of teams playing with varied styles, different approaches to skin the fabled cat (...!!).

I thought Ireland got it wrong by not taking the 3 points on HT v NZ, and going in 22-0 down is psychologically tough. Not just a 4 score lead, but it's being nilled as well. Same happened to NZ in 2012 v England - might have only been 9 or 12 - 0 or something like that, but it's a big deal.

Get points early doors - particularly a try, where it's an even greater sense of accomplishment - and you tick one issue off the list.

It's a bit like being back to amateur or 'pure' rugby in that sense. Less manufactured. More about the real guts and glory of competition, and men pitting their minds, bodies, and souls against one another.

Unfortunately for SA - for any team, really - they can keep Wales at bay, away from their white line, for perhaps even the whole game, or most of it, and they know/expect Biggar to chip away with 3 at a time. That is what keeps Wales so competitive, and add in those strke runners late in the game, add North and Adams and JD2, and the footwork and trickery of G Davies, Tomos, and Liam, and it means Wales can stay in touch - as mentioned - and then get that crucial, gutwrenching, mind and soul sapping try when the other team thought they'd held them out and forced them to resort to the tee.

I make this game 52:48 in SA's favour. Yes, they could thump us - I think we're in danger of looking too tired and too broken. But if we do turn up, and do perform, it will take SA a monumental effort to put us away before 70 minutes, and that always gives us a chance.

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Post by majesticimperialman on Wed 23 Oct 2019, 9:33 pm

Owen Lane the replacement for Navidi, will he be starting against SA or will he be on the bench? 

Also with him just joining the squad, will he be up to speed ( fitness wise) it seems almost a waste of time calling him up if he does not even make the bench.

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Post by miaow on Wed 23 Oct 2019, 9:36 pm

majesticimperialman wrote:Owen Lane the replacement for Navidi, will he be starting against SA or will he be on the bench? 

Also with him just joining the squad, will he be up to speed ( fitness wise) it seems almost a waste of time calling him up if he does not even make the bench.

Almost certainly neither, maes. Doubt he'll see a single minute of action in this RWC unless we rotate heavily for the 3rd place play off, if that's what we end up in.

He's there for the extra runner in training, to hold tackle bags, in the common parlance. But it's more important than that these days - they'll be working on systems etc. He'll be doing a nice job filling in as Mapimpi and Amos as Kolbe, you'd think. And, in the event that Watkin starts and JD2 is out, he's there in the reserves and in with a shout of making the bench if another injury - to Halfpenny or Parkes - occurs.

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Post by maestegmafia on Wed 23 Oct 2019, 9:40 pm

miaow wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:To be honest I can’t think of a single game where you wouldn’t want to score first...!

Particularly as it feels like there's been a return to the psychological pressure of being 'nilled' midway/late in to the first half, if not longer, in recent years.

We've sort of lost the model of both teams 'building the scoreboard'.

In many ways, rugby is actually really exciting at the moment, as it's harder to predict. Lots of teams playing with varied styles, different approaches to skin the fabled cat (...!!).

I thought Ireland got it wrong by not taking the 3 points on HT v NZ, and going in 22-0 down is psychologically tough. Not just a 4 score lead, but it's being nilled as well. Same happened to NZ in 2012 v England - might have only been 9 or 12 - 0 or something like that, but it's a big deal.

Get points early doors - particularly a try, where it's an even greater sense of accomplishment - and you tick one issue off the list.

It's a bit like being back to amateur or 'pure' rugby in that sense. Less manufactured. More about the real guts and glory of competition, and men pitting their minds, bodies, and souls against one another.

Unfortunately for SA - for any team, really - they can keep Wales at bay, away from their white line, for perhaps even the whole game, or most of it, and they know/expect Biggar to chip away with 3 at a time. That is what keeps Wales so competitive, and add in those strke runners late in the game, add North and Adams and JD2, and the footwork and trickery of G Davies, Tomos, and Liam, and it means Wales can stay in touch - as mentioned - and then get that crucial, gutwrenching, mind and soul sapping try when the other team thought they'd held them out and forced them to resort to the tee.

I make this game 52:48 in SA's favour. Yes, they could thump us - I think we're in danger of looking too tired and too broken. But if we do turn up, and do perform, it will take SA a monumental effort to put us away before 70 minutes, and that always gives us a chance.


Every team always stands a chance

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Post by Taylorman on Wed 23 Oct 2019, 10:29 pm

It is interesting, Ive never thought of a first try being much of an advantage. Its cos we are so used to seeing an AB gameplan requiring time to break the opposition down. And you just cant do that in two minutes. Its why I didnt like Jordie kicking for the corner for Reece first minute. Sure they might score but better to use the time to build up the pace of the game to take charge later.

We see the 80 as a process, not a series of one off events, tries, kicks. Building pressure is key, scoreboard pressure is even better but either way, the opposition has got to be worn down. Evens or near at 80 means youve wasted 80 minutes, may as well toss a coin.

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Post by maestegmafia on Wed 23 Oct 2019, 10:48 pm

“In conflict, direct confrontation will lead to engagement and surprise will lead to victory. Those who are skilled in producing surprises will win. Such tacticians are as versatile as the changes in heaven and earth”

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Post by LondonTiger on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 7:51 am

Kolbe ruled out says Erasmus

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Post by Old Man on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 8:06 am

That is a huge loss. I suspect he is hoping to make the final and have Kolbe ready for that.

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Post by Taylorman on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 8:35 am

Geez that’s a huge blow. Best winger in the world this year.

Can someone stop selling Wales lotto tickets please. censored

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Post by maestegmafia on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 8:49 am

Taylorman wrote:Geez that’s a huge blow. Best winger in the world this year.

Can someone stop selling Wales lotto tickets please. censored

Worried about the underdogs now Taylor? Don’t worry, barley anyone thinks Wales stand a chance of making the final let alone beating the All Blacks, no matter how lucky we are.

Clean bill of health in the wales camp though a number of fans and pundits are worried for Jonathan Davies and think we should be saving him for the final.

Tough call but the word from the camp is the usual “aim to win the next game first”.


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Post by maestegmafia on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 8:55 am

Rassie wrote:


It's disappointing not to have Cheslin available as he has been brilliant for us since we first called him up last year,"

"But we really rate Sbu and he will slot straight in. I am as excited to see what he can do as I would be if 'Chessie' were playing. Sbu has been very close to selection as it is.

"We've been fortunate to have been able to be pretty consistent in selection and we've built some nice momentum, but the challenge just got a lot tougher on Sunday.

"Wales are the reigning Six Nations champions - as well as Grand Slam winners - and apart from three defeats in their Rugby World Cup warm-ups have put together a really good sequence of results.

"But we've also found some rhythm and we'll be ready for the challenge."

"A guy like Cheslin, there's a couple of reasons why we didn't select him,"

"Firstly he was not 100 per cent and then hopefully we get to a final and then he's fully fit, and that would be great if we get to a final. So we did think about that."


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Post by maestegmafia on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 8:55 am

Wales name their team on Friday.

South Africa: Le Roux; Nkosi, Am, De Allende, Mapimpi; Pollard, De Klerk; Mtawarira, Mbonambi, Malherbe, Etzebeth, De Jager, Kolisi (capt), Du Toit, Vermeulen

Replacements: Marx, Kitschoff, Koch, Snyman, Mostert, Louw, H Jantjies, Steyn

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Post by Afro on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 8:58 am

Most people I speak to put the Wales-SA game as a 50/50. I'd be less surprised to see Wales win, than I would England.

Luck does seem to be with Wales though. Perhaps their name is already on it
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Post by Scottrf on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 9:02 am

Afro wrote:Most people I speak to put the Wales-SA game as a 50/50. I'd be less surprised to see Wales win, than I would England.

Luck does seem to be with Wales though. Perhaps their name is already on it

South Africa are almost 3 times as likely to win by the betting.

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Post by Taylorman on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 9:04 am

maestegmafia wrote:
Taylorman wrote:Geez that’s a huge blow. Best winger in the world this year.

Can someone stop selling Wales lotto tickets please. censored

Worried about the underdogs now Taylor? Don’t worry, barley anyone thinks Wales stand a chance of making the final let alone beating the All Blacks, no matter how lucky we are.

Clean bill of health in the wales camp though a number of fans and pundits are worried for Jonathan Davies and think we should be saving him for the final.

Tough call but the word from the camp is the usual “aim to win the next game first”.


Yeah just kidding. Kolbes been pretty special this year. Not much too him but is as slippery as an eel, seems to slip out of tackle after tackle. Brilliant to watch, one of those ‘how did he do that!?’ players. You name it, he can step it. Amazing feet.

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Post by Afro on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 9:09 am

Scottrf wrote:
Afro wrote:Most people I speak to put the Wales-SA game as a 50/50. I'd be less surprised to see Wales win, than I would England.

Luck does seem to be with Wales though. Perhaps their name is already on it

South Africa are almost 3 times as likely to win by the betting.

I know, but none of the people I speak to are bookies.

The betting is irrelevant to what I said. Maes said no one gives Wales a chance and the conversations I've had with people contradicts that as most think it is 50/50
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Post by Old Man on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 9:19 am

Afro wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
Afro wrote:Most people I speak to put the Wales-SA game as a 50/50. I'd be less surprised to see Wales win, than I would England.

Luck does seem to be with Wales though. Perhaps their name is already on it

South Africa are almost 3 times as likely to win by the betting.

I know, but none of the people I speak to are bookies.

The betting is irrelevant to what I said. Maes said no one gives Wales a chance and the conversations I've had with people contradicts that as most think it is 50/50

Wales won the last four tests vs SA, they are comfortably favourites.

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Post by maestegmafia on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 9:34 am

Old Man wrote:
Afro wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
Afro wrote:Most people I speak to put the Wales-SA game as a 50/50. I'd be less surprised to see Wales win, than I would England.

Luck does seem to be with Wales though. Perhaps their name is already on it

South Africa are almost 3 times as likely to win by the betting.

I know, but none of the people I speak to are bookies.

The betting is irrelevant to what I said. Maes said no one gives Wales a chance and the conversations I've had with people contradicts that as most think it is 50/50

Wales won the last four tests vs SA, they are comfortably favourites.

Previous tests are little to do with it. We are ranked higher and haven’t lost a match yet is probably the barest claim that we are favourites. I don’t believe in historical cup pedigree either.

I don’t think Wales are going to select any surprises tonight. There is little we can do selection wise to change our game tactically.

Wales results reflect the performance and character of AWJ. Tough and determined. It’s seen us through plenty of matches since he became captain. Hopefully we will see it work for two more.

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Post by Scottrf on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 9:35 am

Old Man wrote:
Afro wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
Afro wrote:Most people I speak to put the Wales-SA game as a 50/50. I'd be less surprised to see Wales win, than I would England.

Luck does seem to be with Wales though. Perhaps their name is already on it

South Africa are almost 3 times as likely to win by the betting.

I know, but none of the people I speak to are bookies.

The betting is irrelevant to what I said. Maes said no one gives Wales a chance and the conversations I've had with people contradicts that as most think it is 50/50

Wales won the last four tests vs SA, they are comfortably favourites.

Irrelevant. SA were rebuilding and went through probably their worst period in history. They have bounced back massively and this is a completely different team.

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Post by BamBam on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 9:36 am

Surprising to see Marx on the bench again, he was being touted as the world's best player not long ago. Is it because of his throwing or a general loss of form

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Post by SecretFly on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 9:37 am

Taylorman wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
Taylorman wrote:Geez that’s a huge blow. Best winger in the world this year.

Can someone stop selling Wales lotto tickets please. censored

Worried about the underdogs now Taylor? Don’t worry, barley anyone thinks Wales stand a chance of making the final let alone beating the All Blacks, no matter how lucky we are.

Clean bill of health in the wales camp though a number of fans and pundits are worried for Jonathan Davies and think we should be saving him for the final.

Tough call but the word from the camp is the usual “aim to win the next game first”.


Yeah just kidding. Kolbes been pretty special this year. Not much too him but is as slippery as an eel, seems to slip out of tackle after tackle. Brilliant to watch, one of those ‘how did he do that!?’ players. You name it, he can step it. Amazing feet.

Coz he's small. Now there's a thing you don't hear much in present day rugby. Mostly you hear, 'players is getting bigger every year'. Indeed I've heard it so much that I expect to see players running out at 8'2" at his point.

So time for the return of the Shane Williamses then! When they least expect something, play it different. Japan had some pocket rocket fliers too.

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Post by maestegmafia on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 9:41 am

BamBam wrote:Surprising to see Marx on the bench again, he was being touted as the world's best player not long ago. Is it because of his throwing or a general loss of form

No it’s because Mbonambi is the better Hooker. Even better than Marx. The Boks now have the two best hookers in the game, one starting the other on the bench.

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Post by Afro on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 9:42 am

I was thinking the other day... Will the clamping down on the high tackles lead to a resurgence of smaller, nippier wingers.

Much more difficult to get down low and tackle Shane than it is North
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Post by Old Man on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 9:44 am

BamBam wrote:Surprising to see Marx on the bench again, he was being touted as the world's best player not long ago. Is it because of his throwing or a general loss of form

RASSIE PLAYS mbonambi and Marx as horses for courses.

Mbonambi is more mobile, Marx the pilferer.

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Post by BamBam on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 9:46 am

Fair enough. Big fan of Marx, he reminds me of Bismarck du Plessis, just an outright physical monster, but against England I've seen his throwing be a weakness, so thought it might be based on that

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Post by lostinwales on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 10:11 am

Afro wrote:I was thinking the other day... Will the clamping down on the high tackles lead to a resurgence of smaller, nippier wingers.

Much more difficult to get down low and tackle Shane than it is North

I think you need both. Shane also scored a lot of tries when the rest of the team were big guys, and I think the contrast he offered helped him a great deal.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 10:20 am

Mark.

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Post by miaow on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 1:46 pm

Old Man wrote:That is a huge loss. I suspect he is hoping to make the final and have Kolbe ready for that.

I'm not so sure it is a huge loss. Kolbe is good but Wales don't really leave space in defence. They have a knack of shutting down flair players. Kolbe is great, but he's not bumping anyone off. Nkosi can smash through Adams as last man if necessary, and also has pace and footwork. In some ways, I would have preferred if Kolbe was playing tbh.

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Post by miaow on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 1:46 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Mark.

What is this about? You wrote it in the other thread?

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Post by miaow on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 1:47 pm

Taylorman wrote:Can someone stop selling Wales lotto tickets please. censored

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50126191

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50010229

censored censored censored

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:11 pm

miaow wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Mark.

What is this about? You wrote it in the other thread?

Oh it's an old 606 way of marking a thread so that it appears on your 'my posts' page.

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Post by BamBam on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:14 pm

Won't be that useful for you miaow, every thread on the forum is already in your my posts section

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Post by miaow on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:21 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
miaow wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Mark.

What is this about? You wrote it in the other thread?

Oh it's an old 606 way of marking a thread so that it appears on your 'my posts' page.

Pretty ueful feature, only just discovered it. Quite handy tbh.

BamBam wrote:Won't be that useful for you miaow, every thread on the forum is already in your my posts section

3800 v 15,700 posts suggests you're the one clogging up the forum, Bampot.

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Post by Scottrf on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:24 pm

There's a 'watch this topic for replies' button. No need to post.

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Post by Old Man on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:28 pm

miaow wrote:
Old Man wrote:That is a huge loss. I suspect he is hoping to make the final and have Kolbe ready for that.

I'm not so sure it is a huge loss. Kolbe is good but Wales don't really leave space in defence. They have a knack of shutting down flair players. Kolbe is great, but he's not bumping anyone off. Nkosi can smash through Adams as last man if necessary, and also has pace and footwork. In some ways, I would have preferred if Kolbe was playing tbh.

Kolbe isn’t just a loss for his attacking prowess, he is superior to Nkosi aerially, reads defense well and has been in the starting line up long enough to feel comfortable. Nkosi whilst stronger, have less experience and might take a while to settle.

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Post by miaow on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:29 pm

South Africa hold the 'winner's shield' thing having beaten Japan, yes? Japan took it from Ireland, who had taken it from Wales in the warm ups.

Whoever wins the RWC will have that shield then - which is pretty common, but interesting as it could have been Japan.

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Post by miaow on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:29 pm

Old Man wrote:
miaow wrote:
Old Man wrote:That is a huge loss. I suspect he is hoping to make the final and have Kolbe ready for that.

I'm not so sure it is a huge loss. Kolbe is good but Wales don't really leave space in defence. They have a knack of shutting down flair players. Kolbe is great, but he's not bumping anyone off. Nkosi can smash through Adams as last man if necessary, and also has pace and footwork. In some ways, I would have preferred if Kolbe was playing tbh.

Kolbe isn’t just a loss for his attacking prowess, he is superior to Nkosi aerially, reads defense well and has been in the starting line up long enough to feel comfortable. Nkosi whilst stronger, have less experience and might take a while to settle.

That's the hope for Wales, that the big stage gets to him and he makes defensive errors, and Adams profits.

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Post by BamBam on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:31 pm

Don't be so sensitive miaow, no need to report, just a little joke

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:34 pm

Scottrf wrote:There's a 'watch this topic for replies' button. No need to post.

I'm very old fashioned, Scott Wink

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Post by miaow on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:41 pm

BamBam wrote:Don't be so sensitive miaow, no need to report, just a little joke

Exactly what bullies say.

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Post by BamBam on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:46 pm

laughing

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Post by lostinwales on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:49 pm

miaow wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
miaow wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Mark.

What is this about? You wrote it in the other thread?

Oh it's an old 606 way of marking a thread so that it appears on your 'my posts' page.

Pretty ueful feature, only just discovered it. Quite handy tbh.

BamBam wrote:Won't be that useful for you miaow, every thread on the forum is already in your my posts section

3800 v 15,700 posts suggests you're the one clogging up the forum, Bampot.

At 50 odd posts a day you are doing your best to catch up though

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 2:55 pm

I've just read on Twitter that it's rumoured Liam Williams is out.

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Post by miaow on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 3:00 pm

Yep, a worry.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/wales-star-liam-williams-emerges-17140314

I thought it wasn't a good sign that the team was taking so long to come out. That there would be an injury in there somewhere.

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Post by mikey_dragon on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 3:02 pm

Halfpenny in then, but can’t see much change to the backs replacements.

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Post by miaow on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 3:12 pm

Lane might end up with a bench spot after all.

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Post by maestegmafia on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 3:17 pm

Reduces our attacking threat a bit but not a worry Halfpenny is a hell of a player. He will relish this opportunity.

Would imagine if JD2 is fit that Owen would be the number 23. If Owen is playing then maybe Lane gets a chance, more likely to be Amos though.


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Post by The Oracle on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 3:19 pm

Liam hasn't been stellar this tournament in fairness, but it would still be a big loss. I guess no-one has been stellar really!!!
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 24 Oct 2019, 3:19 pm

It might be an idea to stick to surnames when there's two Owens now, Maes!

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