PGA Tour: Florida Swing, Part 2: Bay Hill: More Notes from the Ballwasher

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Post by kwinigolfer on Thu 27 Feb 2020, 2:24 am

First topic message reminder :

1).The four tournament Florida Swing gets underway with the Honda Classic at PGA National - difficult enough for the pros but unforgiving to hackers.
Keith Mitchell is defending champ at the Honda Classic.
Francesco Molinari defends at Bay Hill.
Rory at The Players
And Paul Casey has won the past two Valspar Championships.

2).This is obviously a compressed part of the schedule - Justin Thomas won Honda a couple of years ago, but he's missing this week, no longer on his must do list.
princedrac reckons that only Riviera this year has had a stronger field in 2020 than in 2019.
Only FOUR top 60 Americans playing.
But SIX top 60 Englishmen.

3).I don't know what other long-time observers think, but it seems to me the Bermuda Greens experts have slightly less of an advantage than for previous generations.
No longer would Watson not be able to win in Florida while Trevino could never win in California.
Fer instance.
But Keith Mitchell may reveal himself to be an exception, so it'll be interesting to see how he fares this week.

4).The Top 50 from this coming Monday's owgr will qualify for The Players, then only five or six weeks before that will also be the benchmark for an Augusta invite. Time to get going for that one Poults. (Who should have won this a few years ago but for an untimely pandemic of the shanks.)

5).But on a more serious note, how will golf cope if China's germ warfare spreads more readily across the world? A conundrum that one doubts anyone (not Olympic organisers either) was thinking about a month ago. How will international players react if the US tries to close borders, as Trump TV advocated so strongly during the ebola outbreak? (Thank goodness for Cuba's doctors during that one - doubt they'll be called upon this time, not in the US anyway.)

6).High time a British golfer not called Rory (or Graeme) wins again on Tour, Casey was the last almost a year ago. Time for Fleetwood & Wallace to strut their stuff and for Poults and Rose to show they still have what it takes.

7).It's going to be breezy at Bay Hill, downright windy for Round 1 if Thursday's forecast is correct.

8).Francesco Molinari defends his thrilling win last March, but his only PGA Tour Top 20's since last year's Masters disappointment were at Portrush and Pebble Beach (US Open).

9).Non-Americans have won the past for Arnie Invitationals, Leishman & Day, Rory & Franny, and the International flavour extended all the way down the leaderboard last year, Keith Mitchell being the only American inside the Top Ten.
Including 2nd: Fitzpatrick
T3: Rafa C-B, Fleetwood
T6: Wallace, Rory

10).Hopefully Tommy can put last week's disappointment behind him, but don't overlook Henrik Stenson who has a fantastic record here without winning. Yet.


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Post by I'm never wrong on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 5:31 pm

GPB wrote:Every is now at +2, currently inside the cut line, but it is definitely trending towards +2.
If that's the case then Poulter might scrape through....

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Post by GPB on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 5:44 pm

I'm never wrong wrote:Poulter probably missing the cut. He's qualified for The Players, but I don't know how far he will drop. Wondering if he will survive to get into the Matchplay. Currently 56 OWGR. (He's also qualified for The Masters, The Open and PGA but not US Open as yet.)  

I think Poults is safe for the Matchplay even if whiffies this week and next. There is usually 3-4 WDs from the MP, so a few alternates get into the event.

If Woods doesn't play next week (and he hasn't committed yet) I can't see him playing the MP where he has to play 36 holes on Sat and Sun if he wants to win.

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Post by robopz on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 6:40 pm

Every finishes +11 today, +4 for the tournament. Not impossible, but Loooong shot +4s make it. Currently T86 but +4s are moving slowly up...

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Post by I'm never wrong on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 7:12 pm

Jason Day seen departing on a buggy

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Post by robopz on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 7:13 pm

From Justin Ray....

Tommy Fleetwood (76-76) will miss his first cut worldwide since the 2018 French Open.

The longest active cuts made streak on the PGA Tour now belongs to Collin Morikawa at 20 in a row - he's -2 and about to start this 2nd round at Bay Hill.

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Post by GPB on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 7:28 pm

Robo:

IMO, Fleetwood's T72 after 36 holes at the 2019 HSBC should count as a Missed Cut (He back-doored a Top 55 finish

Or as I have ranted for years, No Cut events should not count as Made Cut when looking at consecutive Cut streak.

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Post by robopz on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 7:37 pm

GPB wrote:Robo:

IMO, Fleetwood's T72 after 36 holes at the 2019 HSBC should count as a Missed Cut  (He back-doored a Top 55 finish

Or as I have ranted for years, No Cut events should not count as Made Cut when looking at consecutive Cut streak.
I get your point, always have. But the kind of guys who are going to have these long streaks are usually also the ones who get access to a lot of no cut events anyway. So I don't have a problem with it.  (Even though Fleetwood did have an inordinately high % of no cut events in his streak)

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Post by beninho on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 7:50 pm

Rory playing like me! Love it.

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Post by GPB on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 7:56 pm

Talor Gooch and Maverick McNealy are in double figures  (11) of Cuts Made, and they don't have any no cut events in their 11 events.

Morikawa's 20 Made Cut Streak includes 4 no cut events (BMW, CJCup, Zozo, WGC Mex

Simpson's 18 made Cut streak includes 5 no cut events (Dell, StJude, BMW, TourC, WGC Mex.

Fitzy's 17 made cut streak includes 5 events
Cantlay's 14 made cut streak includes 5 no cut events
Casey's 14 made cut streakincludes 7 no cut events
Hatton's 12 made cut streak includes 5 events

(PGATour events only)

Edit:

Ashun Wu has a streak of 6 Consecutive Made Cuts. All of them HSBC China events dating back to 2014. Yahoo

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Post by beninho on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 8:14 pm

Wasn't fleetwoods world wide, not just pga tour?

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Post by GPB on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 8:38 pm

Fleetwood had a World-Wide streak (46 event dating back to 2018 French Open)

and a PGATour streak (33 events dating back to 2017 Memorial)

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Post by robopz on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 9:59 pm

GPB wrote:Fleetwood had a World-Wide streak (46 event dating back to 2018 French Open)

and a PGATour streak (33 events dating back to 2017 Memorial)
For reference... other cut streaks

142 - Tiger Woods PGA Tour Cut streak had 31 No cut events... so 111 events with a cut.

156 - Add in 14 international events, all with cuts, to Tiger's total. 125 events with a cut.

113 - Byron Nelson's streak of 113 had at least 30 events with no cut... BUT... just making the cut didn't count in those days as those were actually "in the money streaks". Players could make cuts but not cash. and many of Nelson's events had players making cut but not cashing. And, the event before Nelson's 113 made cut streak and the event ending it were legitimate MC events where he WD'd before the completion of 2 rounds.

103-ish - Byron Nelson - At least 10 of his events in his streak were in small field "everybody cashes" events. 4, 8 or 16-man individual round robins/stroke play or team four-balls. About -25-30% of Nelson's total events were no cut, albeit fairly "full fields".  Back in those days a field of 100+ might start, but instead of being officially cut... they would just WD or No Card after the knew they wouldn't cash. But again, since his was an "in the money" streak with often only 20-ish cashing... that's a moot point.

105 - Jack Nicklaus had a made cut streak of 105. By his day everyone who made the legitimate cut cashed.  

111 - Jack's cut streak if you add in the 6 OPENS he played in his streak that weren't official at the time.

115 - I do NOT know enough about Jack's other international play to know for sure how many more events could be added to his PGAT total. But I know there were at least 4 in Australia. 3 of them wins. (2 Australian Open, 1 Dunlop International). There were a few 8 player Piccadilly Match Play's in there though. (but I wouldn't count them)

96-102-106 - Nicklaus has at least 9 no cut events in the streaks mentioned above... so deduct 9 from each

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Post by GPB on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 10:20 pm

Robo: Will Haskett tweeted that Tiger had a streak of 27 Made Cuts in a row when he turned pro, which includes the 1996 Open Championship before he turned pro. (because the tour is counting Morikawa's made cut at the API in his streak

Nicklaus's PGATour profile indicates that he was 6/6 in made cuts in 1961 as an amateur, and 26/26 in 1962 in his rookie year, and 21/22 in 1963.

Assuming that this is true, how many consecutive cuts did he have at that time? Somewhere between 32 and 53 depending on when his MC was in 1963.




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Post by GPB on Fri 06 Mar 2020, 10:26 pm

five No shows at the Players:

Blixt, Westwood, Woods, Kraft, Imahiro

Molinari and Day are in the field.

https://www.theplayers.com/field.html

Will JDay be seen at one of the Orlando Amusement Parks this weekend?

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Post by robopz on Sat 07 Mar 2020, 1:53 am

GPB wrote:Robo:  Will Haskett tweeted that Tiger had a streak of 27 Made Cuts in a row when he turned pro, which includes the 1996 Open Championship before he turned pro.  (because the tour is counting Morikawa's made cut at the API in his streak

Nicklaus's PGATour profile indicates that he was 6/6 in made cuts in 1961 as an amateur, and 26/26 in 1962 in his rookie year, and 21/22 in 1963.

Assuming that this is true, how many consecutive cuts did he have at that time?  Somewhere between 32 and 53 depending on when his MC was in 1963.
I agree with the Tiger streak of 27, but I have it starting at the 1996 U.S. Open, then British... which is 2 events before turning pro. Then 25 of first 25 as a pro.

- - - -

Nicklaus... keep in mind that PGAT records are often incomplete because some of the records are only those who MADE cut... there are a lot of missing MC's going all the way until the early 70's.   But with that caveat... here's what I have.

As an amateur...
1957 - MC in US Open
1958 - Jack goes 2/2 made cuts
1959 - Misses 1st 2 cuts... Masters, US Open... then streak starts NEXT

1959 - starting with 6/28 Gleneagles-Chicago... Jack goes 5/5 made cuts rest of year
1960 - Jack goes 3/3 made cuts
1961 - Jack goes 6/6  made cuts
14/14 total made cut streak at that point.

As a professional
1962 - 27/27 made cuts
1963 - 12/12 thu June 16 Thunderbird Classic then MC 6/23 U.S. Open
39 for first 39 as a pro.

53/53 Total...

I feel really good about 1962 forward as Jack has been well researched as a pro...  but I would give the 14/14 as an amateur some ??? 1960 with only 3 starts looks very suspect to me.  Kinda like the Hogan 177 thing that turned out to be 90 sumpin we discussed in the past.

EDIT PS... The 1962 Open Championship was NOT an official event at the time (until retroactively made official in 2002)... so the 1962 OPEN would NOT be included in any official PGAT cut streak (just like the Tour doesn't count Jack's 6 OPENS in his "official" 105 cut streak.... that would agree with Haskett's 26/26 for 1962.  So make it 52/52 pending further digging beyond the PGAT records for mid 1959-1961

Different than Jack... By the time Tiger played the 1995 and 1996 OPENs, they were official PGAT events... so the 1996 OPEN championship would count on Tiger's streak.

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Post by GPB on Sat 07 Mar 2020, 2:04 pm

Thanks Robo.

Anyone see Tony Finau's shot tracker on #6 on Thursday? (Par 5 dogleg left over water)

Hit his tee shot into water.

Re-Teed, and nearly drove the green. 60 ft from hole

and then chunked his next, still 56 ft away.

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Post by robopz on Sat 07 Mar 2020, 3:54 pm

GPB wrote:Thanks Robo.

Anyone see Tony Finau's shot tracker on #6 on Thursday?  (Par 5 dogleg left over water)

Hit his tee shot into water.

Re-Teed, and nearly drove the green.  60 ft from hole

and then chunked his next, still 56 ft away.
GPB... Finau verified to somebody that shot tracker was wrong on that hole. He re-teed, hit a standard drive and was short of the green with his fourth.

And back to Jack for a second... I questioned Jack playing only three pro level events in 1960.  But he was so well media covered even then, it was easy to go back and quickly track what he was playing via newspaper archives. I think he was 3/3 in 1960 with no MCs other events... I didn't look further into 1959 or 1961

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Post by beninho on Sat 07 Mar 2020, 10:42 pm

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/sport/amp/golf/49009395

Really interesting. I saw him interviewed on Sky, and it's a noticeable stammer.

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Post by I'm never wrong on Sun 08 Mar 2020, 9:01 pm

Never seen so many players trying to lose a tournament

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Post by kwinigolfer on Sun 08 Mar 2020, 10:10 pm

I'm never wrong wrote:Never seen so many players trying to lose a tournament

But most of them were Big Tour players - real gutsy win from Tyrrell Hatton, unsuspected (apparently) fortitude from the European Tour player. clap clap clap clap

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Post by robopz on Sun 08 Mar 2020, 10:16 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:
I'm never wrong wrote:Never seen so many players trying to lose a tournament

But most of them were Big Tour players - real gutsy win from Tyrrell Hatton, unsuspected (apparently) fortitude from the European Tour player. clap clap clap clap
Absolutely... Ballsy win right there.

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Post by beninho on Sun 08 Mar 2020, 10:33 pm

High Wycombe 1

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Post by pedro on Sun 08 Mar 2020, 11:53 pm

Any word from Zinger?

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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 12:25 am

beninho wrote:High Wycombe 1


Yeah,
Wonder where he went to school: RGS HW like Luuuuuke?

Just goes to show, it's tough for some Americans to win in Europe. And tough for some Europeans to win on the PGA Tour.
All good golfers if they're successful at the top level.

The Majors are the true measure after all . . . . . . (Ooh, Plus the Ryder Cup Run )



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Post by GPB on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 1:57 am

pedro wrote:Any word from Zinger?

I think you're missing the point of Zinger's comments from last week. In fact IMO, you are confirming he was right.

I have a lot more respect (A LOT MORE) for Hatton's game right now. And I bet Zinger does too.

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Post by robopz on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:25 am

pedro wrote:Any word from Zinger?
Zinger sounded like he loved it. Why wouldn't he? Hatton did exactly what Zinger was talking about last week.

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Post by robopz on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:40 am

kwinigolfer wrote:Just goes to show, it's tough for some Americans to win in Europe. And tough for some Europeans to win on the PGA Tour.
All good golfers if they're successful at the top level.

The Majors are the true measure after all . . . . . . (Ooh, Plus the Ryder Cup  Run )
Just for reference, which top full time or dual tour PGA Tour player (multi tournament winners) have played over in Europe a significant amount and not won? Reed is the only one I can find with 27 starts but no wins yet (Reed wins at about a 1 in 25 rate in regular PGAT events).   DJ, Fowler, DeChambeau haven't played much in Europe at all, but they've all notched wins. And Knox and Rahm play a LOT more on the PGAT but both have way better win rates on the ET.  And note... I'm not comparing just Americans. Because Zingers comments wasn't about Americans vs Euros. It was about the PGAT versus the ET. It's not the same thing, because the PGA tour isn't about only Americans. Many of it's best players are international. Kind of astonishing how many people can't seem to make the distinction in his comments and think it's a USA versus Europe Ryder cup thing...


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Post by robopz on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:45 am

Here is a chart of every player I could identify with at least 40 regular tour event starts on both the PGA tour and the Euro tour since 1970.  This is the win rates on each tour... Blue bars are ET win rates. Red bars are PGAT win rates..  Minimum 8 combined wins on PGAT/ET, and these win percentages are only during their winning span.
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Post by McLaren on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 12:34 pm

That is some interesting information robo, although the results shouldn't surprise anyone.

This comes back to just how strong the back end of PGAT fields are compared to ET events. The chances of the field beating a really top player like Rory on the PGAT are so much higher than on the ET. (which makes Rorys current run pretty mind boggling)

But I don't see how the above data which shows it harder to win on the PGAT ( Shocked ) justifies the disparaging tone Azinger showed towards top European players, portraying them as deer in headlights just too overawed by just teeing it up on the PGAT to compete for the win?
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Post by McLaren on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 12:45 pm

On yesterdays action.

The fast and firm conditions showed just how terrible the course is. As soon as players couldn't just fire it to wherever they wanted on the green and have the ball stop dead the course ran out of options to offer them. The terrible positioning of bunkers and water hazards coupled with no thought about how balls could be run onto the green rendered the course unplayable. A better course would have offered more options as the ground firmed up, not less.

Hatton, one of the main talking points seems to be he so called poor attitude on the course. It is nothing of the sort, he loves it out there and wants to compete. If that means showing a little emotion then so be it. What you will notice is that he comes off well in post round interviews and doesn't just engage in the usual banal chatter most players do.

One Euro point of interest I noticed was a T24 for Matt Wallace which is quite good for him given his form over the last 6 months. Although I think it was mentioned on the coverage that he finished top 10 here last year. Maybe PD could work this out but it feels like he won't be a top 50 player come the summer if things don't improve.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 12:48 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:
I'm never wrong wrote:Never seen so many players trying to lose a tournament

But most of them were Big Tour players - real gutsy win from Tyrrell Hatton, unsuspected (apparently) fortitude from the European Tour player. clap clap clap clap
Good win. I'm now awaiting the self-immolation of Azinger...

Matthew Fitzpatrick's 69 (I think) looks exceptional against the field average for yesterday.
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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 1:04 pm

robopz wrote:Here is a chart of every player I could identify with at least 40 regular tour event starts on both the PGA tour and the Euro tour since 1970.  This is the win rates on each tour... Blue bars are ET win rates. Red bars are PGAT win rates..  Minimum 8 combined wins on PGAT/ET, and these win percentages are only during their winning span.
PGA Tour: Florida Swing, Part 2: Bay Hill: More Notes from the Ballwasher - Page 4 Dffdd810


robo,
That's what one gets for trying to be gracious . . . . . . . !

I don't understand what that chart shows if it doesn't include WGC's and Majors - just a load of lines with nice colours if, for instance, one classifies Poults & DC as only having one Tour win between them. Martin Kaymer apparently excluded completely, together with two Majors and a Players.
It looks like the same database (datagolf?) as GPB was using a year or two ago.
Apples and oranges.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 1:09 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:
robopz wrote:Here is a chart of every player I could identify with at least 40 regular tour event starts on both the PGA tour and the Euro tour since 1970.  This is the win rates on each tour... Blue bars are ET win rates. Red bars are PGAT win rates..  Minimum 8 combined wins on PGAT/ET, and these win percentages are only during their winning span.
PGA Tour: Florida Swing, Part 2: Bay Hill: More Notes from the Ballwasher - Page 4 Dffdd810


robo,
That's what one gets for trying to be gracious . . . . . . . !

I don't understand what that chart shows if it doesn't include WGC's and Majors - just a load of lines with nice colours if, for instance, one classifies Poults & DC as only having one Tour win between them. Martin Kaymer apparently excluded completely, together with two Majors and a Players.
It looks like the same database (datagolf?) as GPB was using a year or two ago.
Apples and oranges.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics...
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Post by robopz on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 1:36 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:robo,
That's what one gets for trying to be gracious . . . . . . . !

I don't understand what that chart shows if it doesn't include WGC's and Majors - just a load of lines with nice colours if, for instance, one classifies Poults & DC as only having one Tour win between them. Martin Kaymer apparently excluded completely, together with two Majors and a Players.
It looks like the same database (datagolf?) as GPB was using a year or two ago.
Apples and oranges.
It might be a little confusing at first, but it's in context with what Azinger actually said last week, not some bogus Americans versus the world reactions trying to reframe his comments into what they weren't.

I wasn't trying to be "ungracious" by posting the data, unless some find facts ungracious.

Bottom line: Azingers comments were about winning on the European tour versus winning on the PGA tour.  He wasn't talking about guys who have won majors or WGC's.  He was talking about winning European tour regular events, vs PGA tour regular events. Guys who win WGC's and Majors weren't part of discussion, because if they won one of those, they've proven themselves against world-class fields.

This is an entirely different kind of data set then Datagolf. There's was all about scoring comparisons... This one is not about scoring directly, but indirectly how that scoring translates into wins on one tour versus the other.

So if you're really interested, what the chart shows is on average how much higher a win rate players have on the ET vs PGAT.  And the main reason is because Euro tour events are just that much easier to win for the good player because. The facts are week in and week out ET events don't have the depth or the number of top world players as the PGAT events have. Not every week, but most weeks.  

So as it applies to real world... Hatton put himself ahead of the curve by doing EXACTLY what Zinger was talking about last week.. Proving himself against a much more world class field than anything he's won against before.  It was a great win.


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Post by McLaren on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 1:42 pm

robopz wrote:He wasn't talking about guys who have won majors or WGC's.  He was talking about winning European tour regular events, vs PGA tour regular events. Guys who win WGC's and Majors weren't part of discussion, because if they won one of those, they've proven themselves against world-class fields.

He hasn't won a major or WGC but would you say Tommy hasn't proven himself against world class fields?



And there is no way Azinger was talking about the data you posted, it was an off the cuff ill thought out remark that revealed his inner bias. I would be very surprised if Azinger has ever looked into the statistics of anything like what you posted earlier.
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Post by robopz on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:07 pm

McLaren wrote:
robopz wrote:He wasn't talking about guys who have won majors or WGC's.  He was talking about winning European tour regular events, vs PGA tour regular events. Guys who win WGC's and Majors weren't part of discussion, because if they won one of those, they've proven themselves against world-class fields.

He hasn't won a major or WGC but would you say Tommy hasn't proven himself against world class fields?



And there is no way Azinger was talking about the data you posted, it was an off the cuff ill thought out remark that revealed his inner bias. I would be very surprised if Azinger has ever looked into the statistics of anything like what you posted earlier.
I would say that Tommy has won some of the stronger European events, which compare to "mid range average" regular non-alternate events on the PGAT. PGAT average OWGR is around 50.25, (for 2019) with the sum of OWGR averages of every player in the field at 190. ET didn't have one field in 2019 reach 190 (but they did have a couple 188's, BMW & Scottish. Abu Dhabi usually runs in the 170-175 ish range).

So yes and no....Yes in that still I consider average PGA tour fields as being "world class". But I could see how many would think they would have to be at least better than average to be "world class". Your mileage may vary.

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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:12 pm

robo,
I appreciate your explanation but find it irrelevant.

It's almost as if you (and PA) are saying the Podunk Open is more important to these guys than WGC's and, especially, Majors.
"We'll disqualify Faldo's 3 x Masters, just an elitist, limited field invitational, and knock off his three Open Championships because they're overseas" etc, etc, fill in the blanks --------

I'm sorry but this is just the same out-of-context irrelevance as GPB's datagolf nonsense.

It fits the maga narrative but it's irrelevant!

Let's put it another way as we seem to be delving in to slight exaggeration:
By and large, European tourists below the very highest elite level, play the Podunk Opens as warm-ups for WGC's & Majors, or to cram in their 15 events.
US tourists, by and large, play ET events for appearance money, somewhat incented to play well to tap into the largesse of sycophantic sponsors.

It may also be irrelevant but years ago Poulter was checking on what every stroke meant to him in terms of owgr points whilst Azinger was one of the most outspoken golf people complaining they didn't understand the owgr's and, by the way, they were rubbish.

Surprised that you haven't hailed Kuchar as a PGA Tour player who actually seems to fulfil both parts of his overseas obligations.

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Post by GPB on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:21 pm

Really Mac? Again you are complaining about "the disparaging tone". Come on, Man Up.

Zinger was blunt and obtuse. BFD. Focus on what he said, not how he said it.

Yes, I don't think Azinger has compiled a data-set like what Robo's has graphed. But Robo's graph would be Exhibit A to defend what Zinger opined.

Exhibit B would be the DataGolf article that Kwini referenced

http://datagolfblogs.ca/a-quick-look-at-differences-in-field-quality-on-the-us-and-european-tours/

Every player with a least 40 rounds on the PGATour and EuroTour (excluding co-sanctioned) from 2010-2016 performed better (or same) against the field avg on the EuroTour than the PGATour. No player performed better against a PGATour field. Three performed about the same (Karlsson, Lee, and Lahiri)

Sure would like to see Datagolf do an update in light of Zinger's comments.

BTW, Good Work Robo.


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Post by robopz on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:26 pm

McLaren wrote:And there is no way Azinger was talking about the data you posted, it was an off the cuff ill thought out remark that revealed his inner bias. I would be very surprised if Azinger has ever looked into the statistics of anything like what you posted earlier.
I'm sure Azinger wasn't talking about my data, cuz its 99.999% certain he's never seen it. But what he said is 100% consistent with the compilation I did, and just about every other major statistical study on the matter... Even the OWGR with its likely 4-6 point biases shows the same. Go to the OWGR site and sort by "World Points" for all 2019 events and see it for yourself. With majors/WGCs removed the best ET event is 15th (BMW), Abu Dhabi (ETs 6th best) is 30th.

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Post by GPB on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:33 pm

Kwini, You seem to rely on your subjective opinions rather than the objective facts and figures that support Azinger's provocative comments.

Your narrative and rhetoric are not supported with objective facts. I remember you refuted the DG article because the players don't care as much about Honda Open as they do about the co-sanctioned events.


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Post by robopz on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:34 pm

GPB... Actually my data does show 5 players (to the right) with better PGAT win percentages. But against the 32 players I could find who fit the 40 events on each tour & 8 wins criteria, they were certainly the exception rather than the rule.

I considered lowering the thresholds, but when you get into very few events or lower wins, then recent guys like Rahm & Fowler significantly skew the data even further against the Euro Tour. There are a few offsets (like Reed), but not near enough of them. I was trying to be as fair as I could.

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Post by robopz on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:47 pm

Kwini... Come on man. Your long post ignoring the real data just obliterated the careers of Westwood and Montgomerie. If it's all about majors and WGC's and everything everywhere else is just a "podunk open"... then those two (or guys like MAj) can't even be in the conversation as being "good".

Sheesh... And you thought Zinger was harsh?

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Post by McLaren on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:49 pm

robopz wrote:
McLaren wrote:And there is no way Azinger was talking about the data you posted, it was an off the cuff ill thought out remark that revealed his inner bias. I would be very surprised if Azinger has ever looked into the statistics of anything like what you posted earlier.
I'm sure Azinger wasn't talking about my data, cuz its 99.999% certain he's never seen it.  But what he said is 100% consistent with the compilation I did, and just about every other major statistical study on the matter... Even the OWGR with its likely 4-6 point biases shows the same.  Go to the OWGR site and sort by "World Points" for all 2019 events and see it for yourself. With majors/WGCs removed the best ET event is 15th (BMW),  Abu Dhabi (ETs 6th best) is 30th.

Sorry, to be clear I meant that Azinger was not using any data set to come to his conclusion not that he had literally seen your data set. It was a thought that came to him on the spot and he went with it.

And I still don't except that the meaning behind the words he spoke were as tautological as saying the PGAT has stronger fields than the ET. And to GPB's question, Yes I am still saying the tone he used when saying it supports the idea it wasn't the most basic of PGAT better than ET statements.

It is not like I am offended that he thinks the PGAT is better than the ET but if we are going to accurately assign meaning to what he said you can't just ignore his tone of voice, manner of speaking, body language etc.

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Post by GPB on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:54 pm

Robo, Yes I was aware of your exceptions. Datagolf's article showed that every player that played 40 or more Rounds performed better (or the same) against the Avg ET player vs the PGATour.

Your data isolates the players who (mostly) won on each tour. Datagolf includes journeyman players like Garth Mulroy and Anirbar Lahiri.

There is one glaring player omitted from your graph. Probably because he hasn't played 40 EuroTour events but he was won 8 non-co-sanctioned events on the EuroTour. What is Tiger's win percentage on each tour?

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Post by McLaren on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 2:59 pm

GPB wrote:
There is one glaring player omitted from your graph. Probably because he hasn't played 40 EuroTour events but he was won 8 non-co-sanctioned events on the EuroTour.  What is Tiger's win percentage on each tour?

Yeh, I really wanted to know that as well.
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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 3:05 pm

robopz wrote:Kwini... Come on man.  Your long post ignoring the real data just obliterated the careers of Westwood and Montgomerie. If it's all about majors and WGC's and everything everywhere else is just a "podunk open"... then those two (or guys like MAj) can't even be in the conversation as being "good".  

Sheesh... And you thought Zinger was harsh?


Everything else IS a Podunk Open, whether in Dubai or Dallas. You'd like more of them, but you'd like an Open Championship or Masters more.


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Post by GPB on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 3:39 pm

Doing a quick count of events:

I got Woods playing 25 European Tour events that were not co-sanctioned with the PGATour since he turned pro

He has won 8 of those events. 32%

He has played 222 events non-co-sanctioned PGATour events as a professional.

He won has 49 of those events. 22%

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Post by robopz on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 4:30 pm

GPB... Re Tiger.  
22.32% PGAT reg events (50/224)
32.00% ET reg events (8/25)
Pro starts only for 1996

Edited

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Post by robopz on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 5:00 pm

McLaren wrote:
Sorry, to be clear I meant that Azinger was not using any data set to come to his conclusion not that he had literally seen your data set. It was a thought that came to him on the spot and he went with it.

And I still don't except that the meaning behind the words he spoke were as tautological as saying the PGAT has stronger fields than the ET.  And to GPB's question, Yes I am still saying the tone he used when saying it supports the idea it wasn't the most basic of PGAT better than ET statements.

It is not like I am offended that he thinks the PGAT is better than the ET but if we are going to accurately assign meaning to what he said you can't just ignore his tone of voice, manner of speaking, body language etc.  

Mac... Zinger doesn't need a specific data set because he's seen enough and heard enough and aware enough to know what he said is true. The OWGR knows it, every statistician knows it, Rory knows it, Fleetwood knows it...

I've saved the DVR of the Honda final round and listened to that statement several times.  I see it as just being direct and honest.  he could have left out the glowing reports of Mark Wilson winning the Honda classic, but other than that I didn't see anything wrong with it.  

So bottom line... Maybe we disagree (to a degree :-) on his tone... But I don't know how we could possibly disagree on what he actually said. because everybody involved in this conversations knows he was right.  Ask Rory...

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Post by GPB on Mon 09 Mar 2020, 8:11 pm

The PGA Championship, scheduled for Harding Park in San Francisco in two months, might be moved to TPC Sawgrass because of the CoronaVirus.

https://twitter.com/RobertLusetich/status/1237095315393536000

I think they ought to go to Doral.

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