Home Advantage how Crucial

Tomorrow there is a lot of internationals many so called friendlies.
In your opinion how important is Home advantage,one of the most
comments in the Media is Fortress Twickenham,Fortress Loftus
Fortress Jade,Fortress Suncorp.For example in 3Ns and S15 it is usually
decisive .In fact in the case of Super Rugby only one title has been
won by an away team off shore.So how about your home sides?

Dont see why it would be an advantage for England all there players are from NZ etc

Yep i said it

I think it's the partisan crowd that would make the difference more than the location, to be honest, as you'd expect a professional sportsman to be able to get over a change in scenery

As far as the MS is concerned

Not really most of the English England players have played there many times

Home advantage is massive. I don't have any figures to hand (que sin é) but I'll give my own random view and say 2/3's of all games are won by the home team. I doubt I'm that far off on that view of reality.

I think it was you Emack that had the thread about how NZ have only lost at home in Eden Park ten times or something? Whether or not it was you, that stat shows how difficult it will be for anyone to beat them there. Even closer to home, in 2010 Munster played Biarrtiz in France in the semi's of the HC and lost, while Leinster played Toulouse in France in the other semi and lost. In 2011, in the semi finals of the HC Leinster played Toulouse in Dublin and won and Northampton played Perpignan in England and won. Would those semi's have been different if the game was played in the loser's stadium? I'd honestly say they'd most likely have all ended up in the opposite result (although Toulouse were very good in 2010 so they could well have won in Dublin too). There were no doubt plenty of other factors in those matches but playing at home is a massive advantage in my view.

mrsuperclear wrote:Home advantage is massive. I don't have any figures to hand (que sin é) but I'll give my own random view and say 2/3's of all games are won by the home team. I doubt I'm that far off on that view of reality.

I think it was you Emack that had the thread about how NZ have only lost at home in Eden Park ten times or something? Whether or not it was you, that stat shows how difficult it will be for anyone to beat them there. Even closer to home, in 2010 Munster played Biarrtiz in France in the semi's of the HC and lost, while Leinster played Toulouse in France in the other semi and lost. In 2011, in the semi finals of the HC Leinster played Toulouse in Dublin and won and Northampton played Perpignan in England and won. Would those semi's have been different if the game was played in the loser's stadium? I'd honestly say they'd most likely have all ended up in the opposite result (although Toulouse were very good in 2010 so they could well have won in Dublin too). There were no doubt plenty of other factors in those matches but playing at home is a massive advantage in my view.

In the realms of Internationals I would say not as much

flyhalffactory wrote: In the realms of Internationals I would say not as much

No, you're right it's probably not as vital for international games. I would still say that it's a very important factor and, all other things being equal, the home team would be more likely to win any given game. I'd also add that some teams have real difficulties away from home. Italy to my knowledge have only ever won one game away in the six nations. Scotland beat us in 2010 but I'm not even sure if they've managed to beat Italy recently away aside from that (just checked, they last beat Italy in Rome in 2006). And Scotland are a team that have beaten Australia and South Africa at home recently. You're right that it's not as much of an issue for test matches, but it's still definitely there.

I believe the ABs have a better record at everyone elses home than the home team itself except for a couple of grounds in SA but certainly most of the ones we have lost are usually away. This might stem from an earlier discussion about Eden Park but we are staking a lot on home advantage this year.

NZ plays a couple of pool games and if they make it all knockout matches are at eden park, including hopefully the final.

We have now lost 1 (France 1994 by 3 I think) in last 35 tests at Eden park after last week since Oz beat us there in 1986 so it does illustrate how much we'd like to keep that record intact.

We are mindful though that our WCup knockout record since the next year in 1987 has been the opposite.

So one of these legacies is about to end... just a matter of which one really..

mrsuperclear wrote:

flyhalffactory wrote: In the realms of Internationals I would say not as much

No, you're right it's probably not as vital for international games. I would still say that it's a very important factor and, all other things being equal, the home team would be more likely to win any given game. I'd also add that some teams have real difficulties away from home. Italy to my knowledge have only ever won one game away in the six nations. Scotland beat us in 2010 but I'm not even sure if they've managed to beat Italy recently away aside from that (just checked, they last beat Italy in Rome in 2006). And Scotland are a team that have beaten Australia and South Africa at home recently. You're right that it's not as much of an issue for test matches, but it's still definitely there.

yes of course its still an advantage but teams like Italy (fairly new to the 6Ns) and NZ (win everywhere!!) skew it slightly. Otherwise teams regularly win away from home, look at us we beat Oz and SA but lose to Wales!!, and then we beat you guys away. So in the context of what the OP is getting at i.e. will Wales have an home advantage? YES will it be enough to win the game? NO

Yeah, I'd agree with that

At the pro level, I think home advantage is relevant if the teams are otherwise pretty evenly matched, or if there is something extreme about the venue which exerts an influence on the players skills which genuinely makes playing there unusual for them (relatively extreme heat, rain, altitude, wind). If the margins are small, then crowd support and the nuances of a venue may swing advantage to the local side, and may swing 50:50 calls their way as well. As a general rule though, I don't think the venue overcomes a situation where one team is a lot better than the other.

taylorman
Then again we could say that the All blacks have never lost a World Cup game at Eden Park.

Yes well thats true as well though id prefer to be able to say it on 24 october through my hangover

In an earlier article I did, I showed the statistics of what the difference in performances were for each team. Without having to go back and find it there were some significant statistics that came out of it.

New Zealand had no difference in whether they played home or away overall. They had an 83% win ratio at home and 85% away from home.

Wales had a 33% home and away win record.

South Africa had a 71% home record and 55% away record.

France, Ireland and england had roughly a 18-20% drop in performances from home vs away.

For me I think home advantage depends on the following factors, opposition, conditions and travel.

As an example, SA has a 78% away win record in Europe, but roughly a 12% away record in NZ and Australia.

THeir home win record vs the NH is 100% and much less vs NZ and OZ.

So depending on those factors mentioned above a home ground advantage counts only as much as the teams you play.

Yes thats the point boomeranga made as well. All things being equal. And i think within that statement the nz %is inflated slightly more as many teams come here with second teams so the potential for even an upset is gone.

The All Blacks have lost 101 matches out of 475 played,33 of those in NZ.
Approx a two thirds home win rate,of those sides that have beaten them
in NZ discounting the Lions and rest of the world.
SA 9 out of 33 wins 27.27%
FRA 4 out of 12 wins 33,33%
ENG 2 out of 6 wins 33.33%
AUS 12 out of 40 wins 30%
so versus the All Blacks average is
roughly just under a third for all comers
stats date back to 1903.