Are You feeling Nervous?

England/Scotland/Ireland/Wales enter a crucial weekend and up to 3 of them could go home early. Wales and Ireland have suffered going home before the 1/4 finals before - while onlt a freak set of results will stop one of Scotland and England failing to get out of the group for the firt time.

Are you feeling nervous?

I'm a mix. Mine would be "Of course I am nervous, but we may still squeak through even if we lose

Nervous? No.
Excited? Absolutely.
This kind of weekend is one of the reasons we look forward to the RWC.

Gonna be great!

Remember your medication.

I'm more nervous about my game with Portsmouth later in the day. 7 points from the first 4 games isn't terminal, but we could do with 4 more.

England? They'll be fine...

It's only just occurred to me that the only way both England and Scotland can survive is if Argentina suffer a shock thumping by Georgia. At least one of the Home Nations' fate is all but sealed in that respect.

I'm more worried about the Fiji game than I was at the start of the week. I suppose when the time is finally here I'll be taking a deep breathe or two. But also feeling quietly confident depending on how we look and start.

If Scotland win with a bonus point and Argentina don't, both England and Scotland will go through.

Most likely to go out?

Scotland
Ireland
Wales
England

In my opinion. Please, please, please don't let this post come back to bite me!

My bad, or if Scotland lose with a BP and the Pumas lose without one.

Worried...yes and no. not worried about england, they will probably tear scots apart.

Wales...doing it again, talking it up, assuming a 1/4 spot instead of dealing with what is in front of them. Have watched 2 Fiji games and they look poor and have very little ability to retain ball and go through phases. Not anything like the team that beat us in 2007, they look poorly drilled and somewhat like the fiji of old....but Fiji is Fiji and they will come out and try and destroy Wales in the first 20 so, yet again we have to play catch up and abandon a game plan.

I'm nervous, I'd love to see England just play with confidence and make us wonder what we were worried about. Somehow I think I'll be shouting at the tv for the first 15 minutes. Wales will win comfortably, Ireland may have a nervy first half but their quality will prevail in the end.

Logic says that this should be a tough game but England should win with relative comfort. Reality says that unfortunately Scotland England games don't always follow logic so I'm bricking it.

Not yet, but after I finish work and start actually thinking about the game, I think the nerves will come.

Wales are all but through with today's result. Fiji will have to beat Wales 5-0 on match points and win by a 38 point margin.

Room for cautious optimism here, Wales are looking very strong and controlled at the moment and I expect them to consolidate that way of playing against Fiji. Nice to see the 2 Lions props back in the front row at last and both power and speed in the backs. Wales have stayed relatively under the radar of everyone at the moment and it appears to some that they are the "weakest" out of the main 4 NH teams - I think that assumption will change by next week and SA's performance against Samoa gives some perspective the the welsh 17-10 win last week

robbo277 wrote:Wales are all but through with today's result. Fiji will have to beat Wales 5-0 on match points and win by a 38 point margin.

What's your point?

We're through, but sad to see samoa out.

Cumbrian wrote:

robbo277 wrote:Wales are all but through with today's result. Fiji will have to beat Wales 5-0 on match points and win by a 38 point margin.

What's your point?

The current points difference gap is 122, so theyd have to win by 61 ( i think its safe to assume theyd get have 4 tries)

One of the vagaries of the system...if Samoa had one less bonus point then Fiji would only have to get the try bonus point to put Wales out. As it is Wales have qualified in second place even if they muff this game horrendously. It would take an epicly pathetic performce to go out now.

Nervous about injuries. Oh and the NRL Grand Final. Go the Warriors!

If two teams are level on group points then what's the decisive stat between them, head to head or points difference?

farkin nervous, its world cup rugby, every match is a final from now on boys.

But my head says we should win, and win well

Knowsit, AFAIK it's head to head and then points diff if it's a three way tie.

Knowsit17 wrote:If two teams are level on group points then what's the decisive stat between them, head to head or points difference?

Head to head...but if its 3 teams then points difference to avoid the paper rock scissors scenario. If Fiji win "5-0" its a 3 way tie, therefore they have to make up the ludicous points difference.

I see, cheers for the info.

On second thought my nerves have drained away, we're through excluding the greatest c0ck-up in history and I just want to will us to a big win. Shame the game's not for another 52 hours, I'd rather five mins

Well, Wales are through in all but the realms of theoretical maths. Not much to worry anyone there now.

I'm still a little concerned about England - we should beat Scotland, but if there is one team that the Scots raise their game for, it's us. Lots of permutations for this group if we don't win, based on who gets what bonus points. Good thing we've run up a big points difference in the last couple of games, as at least we are almost certain to go through in the event of a three way tie, which could happen on either 14 or 15 points (if there wasn't the big gap in points difference there could be the absurd situation that if Argentina don't get their bonus point against Georgia, England could be better off with Scotland winning with the try bonus point than without).

I just hope we win (or at least draw), as otherwise it's all just going to get too confusing.

Ireland's situation is easier to understand - win or draw and they are through, lose and they go home. Simply a knock out game a week early. Don't see them losing to Italy in this context, but I suspect there'll be some worried Irish fans until the last 15 minutes of the match.

I would be a little nervous if I were an English fan, but I think they'll come through fairly comfortably. Correspondingly, I would be very nervous if a Scottish fan.

I would be a little nervous if I were an Ireland fan, but I'm pretty sure they'll pull through. This is a team that beat Australia by more than a clear score, after all.

I am a tiny bit nervous as a Wales fan, more because of our appalling record at the WOrld Cup in the past than anything else.

Interesting how consistent the SA/Wales/Samoa games worked out: SA beat Wales by 1 point, Wales beat Samoa by 7 points, SA beat Samoa by 8 points. It is said to see Samoa go, they could be a real force in the future.

but I suspect there'll be some worried Irish fans until the last 15 minutes of the match

+ 1

I am bricking it.

Boyne wrote:

but I suspect there'll be some worried Irish fans until the last 15 minutes of the match

+ 1

I am bricking it.

Have a drink Boyne or would you prefer a glass of Italian Red

Why don't you just relax and watch a DVD, How about the 6 Nations Irish win over Italy, that should do it

Boyne wrote:

but I suspect there'll be some worried Irish fans until the last 15 minutes of the match

+ 1

I am bricking it.

+ 1

As a Tigers gfan Im bricking it that England will progress and further ruin any chance of a meaningful Jeff season.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

Cumbrian wrote:

robbo277 wrote:Wales are all but through with today's result. Fiji will have to beat Wales 5-0 on match points and win by a 38 point margin.

What's your point?

The current points difference gap is 122, so theyd have to win by 61 ( i think its safe to assume theyd get have 4 tries)

One of the vagaries of the system...if Samoa had one less bonus point then Fiji would only have to get the try bonus point to put Wales out. As it is Wales have qualified in second place even if they muff this game horrendously. It would take an epicly pathetic performce to go out now.

If they lose by 38 (actually 39, double checking my maths) though their points difference will be worse than Samoa's (+42) and Samoa will go through. I think Fiji will have to win by 85 points (with the 4 try bonus point) to go through.

i think we will beat scotland, but like we always do, we will make it a tough game, and disclipine will be poor.

robbo277 wrote:

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

Cumbrian wrote:

robbo277 wrote:Wales are all but through with today's result. Fiji will have to beat Wales 5-0 on match points and win by a 38 point margin.

What's your point?

The current points difference gap is 122, so theyd have to win by 61 ( i think its safe to assume theyd get have 4 tries)

One of the vagaries of the system...if Samoa had one less bonus point then Fiji would only have to get the try bonus point to put Wales out. As it is Wales have qualified in second place even if they muff this game horrendously. It would take an epicly pathetic performce to go out now.

If they lose by 38 (actually 39, double checking my maths) though their points difference will be worse than Samoa's (+42) and Samoa will go through. I think Fiji will have to win by 85 points (with the 4 try bonus point) to go through.

Ah gotcha I was forgetting that part of the equation. Still would be an epic fail to fluff it up

It's Scotland. I'm going to get steadily more nervous as it gets closer.

At least it's not bloody Murrayfield.

Could have made it clearer in my original post that it would have been Samoa going through if Fiji had have won by 39. Still, it's all fairly academic as Wales shouldn't lose, let alone lose by over 30 points.

Yes, yes I am. Damn those pesky Scots.....

England could go on to lose, but I can't see us getting the kind of beating the Scots would have to hand out for us not to qualify.

I think the best Scotland will realistically get from us tomorrow is a 4-1 match point win, which would be enough to see us top the pool regardless of the Argentina result.

But if you asked me for a prediction it would be England by more than a score.

Will they send you home to think again? or just as bad will they send you on to play New Zealand? - Forget about the 7 point spread anything other than a win and England are heading for the Blacks and the Exit door

How I see it going.

We all know Scotland are going to raise their game against England, and that for most of the game the Scots are going to slow the ball down and play negative rugby to frustrate England.

England should be able to rise above it as they have more skill and power but I fear they will get frustrated and give needless penalties away which will keep the Scots in the game for 60-70mins, but England will power through in the end as our bench is stronger than the Scots.

It will be tight, it won't be pretty and I’ll probably end up losing my voice, but England should scrape home. By 7-8pts


Am I nervous?

YES, very.

If we get a bonus point (with Scotland not taking one) would see

England - 15
Scotland - 14
Argentina - 10

A 5 point Argentina win would still see England top the pool on direct results.

I can't see Scotland scoring the 4 tries that would get them level on 15 points (and ahead on direct results), and I can't see Scotland beating us by more than 7 points that would see us stuck on 14 (and behind on direct results).

Well i would think welsh fans should feel fine now that samoa has been eliminated?

We were Ok before that match Bilton

Well happy to hear that.

And it's Friday

Yeah just think about all those poor peoople in NZ, their friday has come and gone, soon they will get up and it will be saturday, whilst we can sit back and leasurely start our weekend.

Ask 'em how Scotland got on against England they must have played it by now then

Come on now, you can't wish their weekend away, it is yet only 6h40 in the morning there.

or 4h40, i am confused now.

At least they have the luxury of being able to maintain their sleeping pattern! My eyelids have developed a mind of their own during the day as a result of the nocturnal life I have now taken on. Probably not even worth trying to get a wink Saturday night/Sunday morning

I am normally a midnight owl, and have found wednesdays and thursday evenings I just crash, can't stay awake.

As an English lass married to a Scot, its going to be a pretty miserable weekend. Dam you Scotland, why did you throw the Argentina game away