Ireland will beat New Zealand for the first time in 2012.

It will happen in the first test of Ireland's summer tour next year.

History will be made.

March 04 Ireland beat England
Nov 08 Ireland beat SA
June 2012 Ireland will beat NZ

Steve Hanson will admit after the game that the better team on the day won. Ireland will lead for most of the match to claim their second big scalp at Eden Park in a row. They will be hammered in the second test in Christchurch.

Can't wait for this series.

Maybe, maybe not

It will be a cracking series though and Ireland will have their best chance!

chewed_mintie wrote:Maybe, maybe probably not

It will be a cracking series though and Ireland will have their best chance!

+ 1

March 04 Ireland beat England - business as usual.
Nov 08 Ireland beat SA - see above.
June 2012 Ireland will beat NZ - No chance. In 2/3 years ... maybe.

Probably will if Hansen is coach

what sport will they be playing when they beat them?

Gatts wrote:what sport will they be playing when they beat them?

Its a toss-up between banking and sheep-shagging. Both close finishes.

bravo

my money is on sheep shagging by an inch or two, but it will be messy and a close finish won on kicks

If Ireland dont beat the All Blacks in 2012.they never will.

Agree with you laurie it is our best chance in about 20 years in my opinion which is why I made the prediction. It has to happen at some stage.

Gibson wrote:March 04 Ireland beat England - business as usual.
Nov 08 Ireland beat SA - see above.
June 2012 Ireland will beat NZ - No chance. In 2/3 years ... maybe.

Ireland beating eng in 04 wasn't business as usual because I believe they trashed Ireland in the match prior to that.

I think we will beat NZ. Probably it'll happen in the 3rd test after being soundly spanked in the first two and the Kiwis putting out a reserve XV

The truth is it is inevitable that it will happen sooner or later.

Ireland has become a nation with a lot of depth and their regional teams have been successful for far too long not to get over the New Zealand hurdle sooner rather than later.

It will definitely throw the cat amongst the pigeons if Ireland can win the first test.

I was looking at those dates for ages before it made any sense to me. Are we saying that Ireland have managed to beat the reigning RWC champions the first time they met after the RWC itself.
Possibly down to Ireland performing at a consistent level but never really peaking as starkly as other sides.
Coupled with potentially reduced focus in a RWC championship side after winning the big won, experienced heads retiring after RWCs, etc.

It could happen... but as said above probably won't.... but eventually when Hell's Gate freezes over, a bias referee is chosen and all of NZ catch a flu, Ireland might scrap a 6-5 victory.

If Carter and McCaw are injured and New Zealand are rusty and under-prepared and somebody says something that makes the Ireland team angry and we get the rub of the green and a favourable referee then maybe we could beat NewZealand in New Zealand.

When is the last time a European team beat New Zealand anywhere?

When is the last time a European team beat New Zealand anywhere?

France in Dunedin?

that would be June 2009 france in duneden.

They are on a 15 game winning streak against the six nation teams.

When is the last time a home nations team beat New Zealand? It has to be England, but you'd have to go waaay back.

England 2003 before the WC I think. It may have been 2002 though.

Thomond wrote:England 2003 before the WC I think. It may have been 2002 though.

Was that the delayed game because of foot and mouth?

[edit] You're on about a different game entirely. My mistake!

thebandwagonsociety wrote:I was looking at those dates for ages before it made any sense to me. Are we saying that Ireland have managed to beat the reigning RWC champions the first time they met after the RWC itself.
Possibly down to Ireland performing at a consistent level but never really peaking as starkly as other sides.
Coupled with potentially reduced focus in a RWC championship side after winning the big won, experienced heads retiring after RWCs, etc.

It could happen... but as said above probably won't.... but eventually when Hell's Gate freezes over, a bias referee is chosen and all of NZ catch a flu, Ireland might scrap a 6-5 victory.

Yes the dates show that in Irelands first match v the last two world champs Ireland have won.

Ireland don't necessarily need a biased ref just a fair one. NZ aren't so immortal that they need to be sick to lose we just to ditch the typically Irish respect and fear and make the game about us not them.

Feckless Rogue wrote:If Carter and McCaw are injured and New Zealand are rusty and under-prepared and somebody says something that makes the Ireland team angry and we get the rub of the green and a favourable referee then maybe we could beat NewZealand in New Zealand.

When is the last time a European team beat New Zealand anywhere?

Or maybe we will just win because we stop putting NZ on a pedestal and making excuses why they will beat us.

Fair point. We do put them on a pedestal in a way that the Aussie's don't. But there is a reason why Ireland have never beaten New Zealand. And it's not all because we don't "believe" we can. It's because every time Ireland have ever played New Zealand, they've put out 15 player who are better at rugby than our 15. The gap in quality between Ireland and New Zealand is real, not imagined.

That said, I think Australia are a better team than us too, but we brought the game plan and the execution to beat them and make them look worse than they are. We've beaten South Africa 3 times in the last 5 years I think. So we should be able to beat New Zealand.

Feckless Rogue wrote:Fair point. We do put them on a pedestal in a way that the Aussie's don't.

Speak for yourself, I've the Aussies on a pedestal too... ....besides the Allblacks are a better side than Australia and SA, more often than not, and tend never to have off days.

Feckless Rogue wrote:Fair point. We do put them on a pedestal in a way that the Aussie's don't. But there is a reason why Ireland have never beaten New Zealand. And it's not all because we don't "believe" we can. It's because every time Ireland have ever played New Zealand, they've put out 15 player who are better at rugby than our 15. The gap in quality between Ireland and New Zealand is real, not imagined.

That said, I think Australia are a better team than us too, but we brought the game plan and the execution to beat them and make them look worse than they are. We've beaten South Africa 3 times in the last 5 years I think. So we should be able to beat New Zealand.

Yes but the gap is not as big as some fans believe.

Plus we have a few advantages for that tour:

NZ will have a new manager, they will have played limited times under the new manager. This is often a good time to play a team.

They may have lost some key players to retirement. I don't think Ireland will have.

It will be played at the beginning of June. Ireland will have played together in the 6N just a few months before. The NZ squad will not have Been together since November the previous year. This is why we usually preform better v NZ in NZ.

NZ are world champions and that is often the best time to play a team. Ireland certainly like playing teams when they are at their best, beating last two world champs and this years tri and 6 nations champions suggests so anyway.

Some tall claims you're making there. I'm a firm believer in this healthy kind of optimism and confidence, I just wish some would employ it more often or else not take the idea of banter too far. Way too many mind-numbing pessimists on these boards, the negative vibe makes me want to scream sometimes

Best of luck Ireland's way, should be a cracking summer, their window should be open

Knowsit17 wrote: I just wish some would employ it more often or else not take the idea of banter too far. Way too many mind-numbing pessimists on these boards, the negative vibe makes me want to scream sometimes

Not really. Irelands last competitive test was a fair old tonking by Wales.

I'd rather see how we go in the 6N and how our provinces go over the course of the season, and also how the AB's go, before making claims that this is Irelands best ever chance to beat the AB's.

I'd be hopeful we're not going out there to make up the numbers but there are a fair few question marks over Ireland at the minute.

I'd be quietly confident we will beat Wales in the six nations next year too.

You lost to us in the last 6Ns and were well beaten in the RWC so i love this blind optimism, this belief can only be based on it being a home fixture.

leinsterbaby wrote:I'd be quietly confident we will beat Wales in the six nations next year too.

That's the only cause lost in advance, everything else is well within the realms of reason

It seems pretty clear to me that soon Wales and Ireland will be the undisputed heavyweights of world rugby and Kiwi's and South Africans will write articles about whether it's possible to beat either of us.

For me the this issue would be more interesting if it looked at:
A. What do Ireland have to do to beat New Zealand in 2012.
OR
B.How will Ireland beat New Zealand in 2012.

Yeah what should be the strategy? We had a great game plan to beat Australia and it worked. Wales had a game plan to beat us and it worked.

But we knew what type of game Australia wouldn't be comfortable with and we had to prevent their backs getting into it. The Welsh knew that if they stopped our big ball carriers, our midfield wouldn't create much. What is New Zealand's weakness? Where do you target them? What's the best strategy?

Just bring your most complete game possible I would say. Points that might require some emphasis are prevent the All Blacks from spreading the ball through their backs, do your best to stop players like Dagg from fizzing and hold your own in the forwards and keep the scoreboard ticking over.

France, the only Euro side to have beaten NZ since 2003, have done so by disrupting them and not allowing them to dominate possession. The AB's have usually looked a bit rudderless when they don't get their ideal amount of possession and space.

For Ireland to beat the All Blacks they have score as many trys as the ABs if not more.

- not get distracted by thinking how they have to stand and watch the haka
- not take a backward step the first time a new zealand player rushes with the ball
- the tackling player releasing before going back in for the ball
- our scrum not creeking
- our lineout dominating
- stick the ball up the jumper for 10 minutes at the start of the game and give some NZ players decent bumps/bruises
- not think we need to force our backline play from the first second of the game and rush our phases
- work NZ in defense
- stop fixating on the ALL BLACKS and put these players on their backside
- don't drop down a man because your form backrow player at the time has a brain fart

A lot of small things but really a big dollup of sheer bloodymindedness from the entire XV and bench!

And taking the right options,in watching the Ireland/Australia game at the World cup I saw Ireland butcher what should have been two certain trys,purely through wrong option taking.

aucklandlaurie wrote: And taking the right options,in watching the Ireland/Australia game at the World cup I saw Ireland butcher what should have been two certain trys,purely through wrong option taking.

Good point, and it is magnified when we play New Zealand because the players seem to panic that they have managed a break instead of having the confidence that they were going to make the break in the first place and trusting the support to finish off the play.

One thing we might have in advantage in is intensity. Ireland can play at very high intensity when the mood takes them. Like against England in Dublin and Australia in Eden Park. And against England they were making correct decisions and put England away ruthlessly. Of course New Zealand in their stride can play at a higher phyical intensity and pace then anyone. But they won't be in their stride. It'll be their first game together at the start of a new season for them. Hopefully O'Driscoll's shoulder will be fixed and he'll be rested and fit.

It's not a hopeless cause. We've given them good games over there at times and even had them on the canvass with ten minutes to go a few years ago after attacking them relentlessly. But they got up and snatched the win. The reality is even a good team playing very well will lose to New Zealand most of the time. Their win record is incredible. They're the masters of rugby. It would be so sweet to beat them for the first time and take out the new World Champions for the third time in a row. We'll have three cracks at them but I think our best chance is the first one.

Feckless
If I was irish I would be more than confident with Irelands ability to impose and maintain intensity,I do think the issue is irelands attack and lack of ability to create the situations,from which trys come.
In the World cup Ireland scored 16 ties,the All Blacks 40.

Yep. ROG, D'arcy and BOD were great players. But they're old now. And O'Driscoll's shoulder was bollixed. There was no pace or power to create things. I think BOD is such an intelligent player and leader that he would still be very useful if surrounded by pacier players. But the three of them together were not creative enough.

We have Sexton to replace ROG, and Keatley is looking good for Munster too. We have good young centers at all the provinces. I just wonder will Kidney start to blood them in them upcoming Six Nations or will he try and squeeze one last season out of the old lads. I think the World Cup showed we need new blood in midfield. But we're pretty good everywhere else.

I'm no expert on all the Irish players and how their positional roles would best contribute to the whole team,but if I was an Irish coach I would have considered sometime over the past two years or so to play Brian O'Driscoll at 2nd 5 eighth ( your inside centre).

aucklandlaurie wrote: For Ireland to beat the All Blacks they have score as many trys as the ABs if not more.

yes and they will have to score more points than the abs too

Gatts wrote:You lost to us in the last 6Ns and were well beaten in the RWC so i love this blind optimism, this belief can only be based on it being a home fixture.

Wales are the kings of blind optimism. They also are very inconsistent a team of highs and lows and little in between. I feel they had their high at the WC plus the game will be in Dubln against an Ireland team out for revenge. I fancy our chances even though I agree Wales are good now.

aucklandlaurie wrote: For me the this issue would be more interesting if it looked at:
A. What do Ireland have to do to beat New Zealand in 2012.
OR
B.How will Ireland beat New Zealand in 2012.

To beat NZ you have to beat them at the breakdown as France did at the WC. No mean feat but we have a very physical back row. Usually when teams beat or come close to beating NZ their back row has been incredible. France and SA for example.

leinsterbaby wrote:

Gatts wrote:You lost to us in the last 6Ns and were well beaten in the RWC so i love this blind optimism, this belief can only be based on it being a home fixture.

Wales are the kings of blind optimism. They also are very inconsistent a team of highs and lows and little in between. I feel they had their high at the WC plus the game will be in Dubln against an Ireland team out for revenge. I fancy our chances even though I agree Wales are good now.

Well thats it then...you think you will win because you are at home. good luck with that!

Gatts wrote:

leinsterbaby wrote:

Gatts wrote:You lost to us in the last 6Ns and were well beaten in the RWC so i love this blind optimism, this belief can only be based on it being a home fixture.

Wales are the kings of blind optimism. They also are very inconsistent a team of highs and lows and little in between. I feel they had their high at the WC plus the game will be in Dubln against an Ireland team out for revenge. I fancy our chances even though I agree Wales are good now.

Well thats it then...you think you will win because you are at home. good luck with that!

I doubt it's so much that as the fact that he's Irish and can see an Irish win just as strongly as we are Welsh and can see a Welsh win. It's hard to put it any simpler than that.

Feckless Rogue wrote:We've beaten South Africa 3 times in the last 5 years I think. So we should be able to beat New Zealand.

Yes, you have beaten us three times in the last 7 years, all at home. although I do believe it is inevitable that you will beat New Zealand at some point. you still need to play them in New Zealand, and that will be tougher than beating SA at home.

Ireland are a really good side who unfortunately tend to make a lot of mistakes and handling errors.

NZ(and France) are a side who are ruthlessly clinical at punishing other teams errors.

Until Ireland can adopt an effective gameplan and implement it for 80 min and not 70 then we won't beat the Allblacks, simple as that.

We've pushed them on several occaisions in recent times but alway end up on the wrong end of the scoreboard because, quite simply, the AB's are better at taking chances and turning their pressure into points than we are, much better.

The last match at Landsdowne is a perfect example. That was a pretty even game but NZ won it by 20 odd points on the scoreboard. A lot of people felt that game was a great chance for Ireland to beat the AB's.

Physically we have players who can match them, even better them at times, and we have players to hurt them in attack. However mentally they are still on a different level and their ball skills and descision from 1-15 is far better than ours.

I'd don't agree that because its a 3 match series that is gives us a better chance bacause the AB's will never give less than 100% in any game and will be out to whitewash us and smash us in each game.

The only way we will get a win is if we outperform them on a given day and we haven't shown much recently to suggest we can do that.

Feckless Rogue wrote:When is the last time a home nations team beat New Zealand? It has to be England, but you'd have to go waaay back.

It was England in 2003, on the summer tour prior to the RWC. Of the top of my head it was 15-12 or thereabouts. Close anyway.

I think of all the home nations teams that Ireland are the most likely to beat NZ at present. Good luck down there chaps