2013 season discussion thread!

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

First topic message reminder :

Thought I would set up a place where we can discuss the 2013 season!

A good win for Cavendish yesterday in his first race with his new team

[Mad for Chelsea]

The Giro does always tend to have more GC contenders in the running for the points jersey, simply because the stages are usually hillier than the Tour for example

that, and the fact the Giro award equal points at every stage: flat, mountain, or TT. Nibali is only 10 points behind Cavendish now, due to him picking up 25 points today. Also slightly bizarre is the tendency to nearly all the intermediate sprints in the second half of the stage, which again favours the GC riders. Still at least this year it finishes with a flat stage which gives the sprinters something to look forward to...

[dummy_half]

Not the best day ever for Italian cycling - Giro stage cancelled because of snow in the Dolomites (and tomorrow looking like it will need serious re-routing to avoid the higher mountains), then it announced that former Giro winner and frequent attacker in this edition Danilo Di Luca had tested positive for EPO (again).

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

HE tested positive whilst out of competition, which shows the testing is working.

Been sacked by his team, and I should imagine we've seen the last of him on a bike. Guys an idiot.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Nibali is a class apart in this field, takes the stage easily in horrendous conditions!

Uran gets 2nd overall as Evans cracks, and Betancur takes the young riders off Majka.

Think if Cav wins the stage tomorrow he wins the points jersey, not too sure tho

[alfie]

I imagine Cav will indeed take it with a win tomorrow.

Except in the unlikely event of Nibali mixing it with the sprinters and finishing high up in the points ! I know he has done just about everything in this race , but I think he might be content to come in with the pack tomorrow.
Of course , Cav still has to do the business...

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Sky Sports Cycling ‏@SkyCycling
Mark Cavendish has just won the first intermediate sprint at the #Giro to pick up 8pts. New red jersey standings: 1 Nibali 128pts, 2 Cav 125

Cav's got it in the bag really, barring a disaster

[alfie]

Forgot about the intermediate ! Indeed , Cav doesn't even need to win the final sprint now...

Just make sure he doesn't fall or get dq'd.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Sky Sports Cycling ‏@SkyCycling
Mark Cavendish wins the second int sprint to retake lead of points classification. Red jersey standings: 1 Cav 133pts, 2 Nibali 128 #Giro

So long as he stays upright, he'll have it

[alfie]

Cav wins the stage...and the points jersey.



Nibali a dominant winner of the GC ...

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Plus with the Giro there are some fierce descents that Nibali will thrive on.

It's too close to call in my mind. I'll say Nibali

Called it

Not the most riveting tour in terms of competition for the GC, but some cracking stages in there, with the weather helping!

Well done to Nibali, who I'm sure will be back for the Vuelta and Worlds, and the rest of the classification winners also

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Now onto the Dauphine and Tour de Suisse, before the National Championships and the Tour itself.

The Dauphine will give us a fairly good idea of how well Froome is doing

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Anna Thompson ‏@BBCAnnaT
UCI suspends Italian cycist Mauro Santambrogio after EPO found in sample, he won stage 14 of Giro and finished 9th overall

[dummy_half]

Santambrogio:
Team mate of Di Luca, and a 29 year old who had shown major improvement this season. Not the most surprising positive test ever to be returned.

An interesting comment I saw elsewhere raised the question of whether the EPO test has been improved in terms of how long after use a positive test can be made. It's a drug that's been around for 20+ years and for which a viable test has been around for a decade and more, so riders who have doped successfully in the past with it should know the 'safe' times to use and not return a positive test.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Yeah not a complete surprise of a positive test, just a shame, and goes back to putting the doubt in the mind of great feats in races, if they're actually clean.

For example Nibali was he doping too, as he was the only one to beat Santambrogio on the climbs really?

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Well Froome demolished Contador in the ITT yesterday, and has just won the first mountain top finish of the Dauphine today!

Froome-dog looking good

[Mike Selig]

Interesting stage today. Contador did a lot of work at the front of the peloton and looked comfortable. Until he took over, Sky's dominance was impressive or worrying depending on your outlook.*

Looking forward to the Tour, Froome has to be big favourite. He has the best team backing him, and looks in good legs. Contador will probably be the main threat. Unfortunately this probably won't make for a very exciting race.

* it still looked uncomfortably like the old USP/Disc days to me. Whilst I appreciate that Porte is an excellent climber, the likes of Thomas and Stenaugh seem to be climbing far better than they should be.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

You mean Kennaugh Mike? He's a pretty decent climber to be fair to him, Thomas though not so much, more of a classics man...

Contador just seems a little off top form to me at the moment. Hopefully he finds it at the Tour, because he could really challenge Froome. They could have some really good battles, as unlike Wiggins, Froome will react to attacks straight away rather than ride back up.

It's a shame Andy Schleck lost all confidence, otherwise we could've had a great threeway battle. Schleck may be a half decent outside bet for the King of the Mountains jersey actually, as he is regaining his mojo a bit

[Mike Selig]

Hmmmm

Froome very strong yesterday. Contador claims to be building up to strength which we know rarely works - the Dauphiné is usually a pretty accurate guide for the Tour.

The good thing as far as the spectacle is concerned is Froome is a more entertaining rider than Wiggins (no slight meant on Wiggins, who rode terrifically last year in his style), so even if he does boss the tour, hopefully he will do so by attacking a bit.

[Mike Selig]

You mean Kennaugh Mike? He's a pretty decent climber to be fair to him, Thomas though not so much, more of a classics man...

Correct. Apologies to the man for messing up his name quite so badly...

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Froome won the Dauphine, Rui Costa won the Tour de Suisse

Cav has a team designed around him again for the Tour. Set his sights on yellow on stage 1

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Argos-Shimano - Roy Curvers (Ned), John Degenkolb (Ger), Tom Dumoulin (Ned), Johannes Fröhlinger (Ger), Simon Geschke (Ger), Marcel Kittel (Ger), Koen de Kort (Ned), Albert Timmer (Ned) and Tom Veelers (Ned).

Cannondale - Peter Sagan, Maciej Bodnar, Kristijan Koren, Alessandro De Marchi, Alan Marangoni, Fabio Sabatini, Ted King and Brian Vandborg.

Blanco (which may be renamed Belkin for the Tour) - Lars Boom, Laurens ten Dam, Robert Gesink, Tom Leezer, Bauke Mollema, Lars Petter Nordhaug, Bram Tankink, Sep Vanmarcke and Maarten Wynants.

Radioshack - Jan Bakelants (Bel), Laurent Didier (Lux), Tony Gallopin (Fra), Markel Irizar (Spa), Andreas Klöden (Ger), Maxime Monfort (Bel), Andy Schleck (Lux), Jens Voigt (Ger) and Haimar Zubeldia (Spa).

Saxo Bank - Alberto Contador (Spa), Michael Rogers (Aus), Roman Kreuziger (Cze), Nicolas Roche (Irl), Matteo Tosatto (Ita), Daniele Bennati (Ita), Sergio Paulinho (Por), Jesus Hernandez (Spa), Benjamin Noval (Spa)


Some of the squads announced for the Tour.

That Saxo Bank squad looks quality. Contador will have Rogers, Krueziger and Roche supporting him in the mountains. All three of those guys could get Top 10 finishes if they were the leader, and in good form

[Mike Selig]

That is a strong team for Saxo Bank. If they are on form, then it promises to be (hopefully) a good battle between them and sky.

Anyone taking bets on a positive coming out of Radioshack? Some dodgy names on there...

[Big]

That is an impressive Saxo Bank lineup.  Should make for a good tour.

I need to stop looking at the BBC cycling news.  They really are a bunch of muck stirrers with seemingly little interest in the actual cycling.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Sky Sports Cycling ‏@SkyCycling
Team Sky #TDF squad: Froome, Porte, Boasson Hagen, Kennaugh, Kiryienka, Lopez, Stannard, Thomas, Siutsou

Strong team there, although I wouldn't say the mountain domestiques are as strong as Contador's. Good to see 4 brits in the line up too

[Azabache]

Where's Rafael Nadal?

[djlovesyou]

That is a strong team for Saxo Bank. If they are on form, then it promises to be (hopefully) a good battle between them and sky.

Anyone taking bets on a positive coming out of Radioshack? Some dodgy names on there...

Dodgy names on Radioshack? Think Kloden is perhaps past all that, and I don't see any major issues with any of the other riders compared to other similar teams. Or did you mean that the actual names look a bit dodgy, in the sense that you don't trust guys with Zs in their name?

[Guest]

Wiggins interview today is basically an admittance he won't ever win a grand tour again. It was great he won the tdf but it really was a one off with the course an inferior opposition playing a huge roll. Shame but in reality he would never of challenged the guys this year in the proper mountains. Can just see him at world championships and TT`s and the retiring.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

I think Wiggins was probably in the best shape of his life, the Tour before he won, the year he crashed and broke his collarbone. Last year he was good, but the course deffo suited him (although he still had to win it)

Still had a great career nonetheless. Should concentrate on the World TT, and then maybe he can condition himself to play more of a part in the classics season next year. I don't think he'll retire yet

[JDizzle]

Great to see Geraint Thomas making the team for the Tour! Hopefully he will be allowed to get in a few breaks and, living in the dreamworld, perhaps win a stage but I hope for a strong ride from him!

[Big]

I think Wiggins was probably in the best shape of his life, the Tour before he won, the year he crashed and broke his collarbone. Last year he was good, but the course deffo suited him (although he still had to win it)

Still had a great career nonetheless. Should concentrate on the World TT, and then maybe he can condition himself to play more of a part in the classics season next year. I don't think he'll retire yet

Would agree with all that.  

Three grand tour podium finishes in the limited number of years he's been focused on the road would suggest it's no fluke to me.  May not be one of cyclings greats on the road, but a genuine GC contender and worthy winner.  In my view he is probably one of a very very small minority of riders that have won it clean, and for that alone deserves enormous respect.

[Guest]

So what are we looking at for the TDF, I've been abit out the loop with it all. Froome is in major form and has cleaned up most events and therefore is favourite. I saw Froome beating Contador on a stage a couple weeks back, so I'm guessing Alberto is not in his prime form. Cadel Evans is too old and was poor last year. Nibal is guess will be second favourite, am I right? Who else is there, I was see Van Den Broeck but he always disappoints. What form is Andy Schleck in, any good? What other GC riders have a geniune chance, is  J Rodriguez enlisted?

Hopefully Cavendish can wrap up four or five stage wins and continue his legacy charge. High mountains should provide some fantastic battles and attacks, something we really didnt see much of last year due to the bad competition and dominance of Team Sky. Have I missed anything? Cheers.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

So what are we looking at for the TDF, I've been abit out the loop with it all. Froome is in major form and has cleaned up most events and therefore is favourite. I saw Froome beating Contador on a stage a couple weeks back, so I'm guessing Alberto is not in his prime form. Cadel Evans is too old and was poor last year. Nibal is guess will be second favourite, am I right? Who else is there, I was see Van Den Broeck but he always disappoints. What form is Andy Schleck in, any good? What other GC riders have a geniune chance, is  J Rodriguez enlisted?

Hopefully Cavendish can wrap up four or five stage wins and continue his legacy charge. High mountains should provide some fantastic battles and attacks, something we really didnt see much of last year due to the bad competition and dominance of Team Sky. Have I missed anything? Cheers.

Froome is fav for sure, but Contador is certainly still in with a great shout, especially with the climbers he has supporting him. Andy Schleck is regaining form, but won't contend, Rodriguez is there, but he'll lose way too much time in the ITT. Valverde, Van Garderen, Evans, Van Den Broeck and Hesjedal are all riding, although don't see any of them hurting Froome/Contador. Watch out for the little Columbian Nairo Quintana, who is an outside bet. Then you got the likes of Rolland, Pinot, Dan Martin who will all be looking for stages and maybe a Top 10.

Cavendish has a devoted sprint team behind him again, so if he is on form he should do well. However a strong sprint field is there including Sagan, Greipel, Kittel, Goss, Bouhanni, Farrar, Rojas Gil and Hushovd, so will be tough for him. Sagan is heavy fav for the green jersey

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Le Tour has come and gone, so has Stuart O'Grady who retired, and promptly admitted to doping in the 98 Tour

My view on doping is this: almost everyone was doping then. Probably not that many are doping now. You are always going to get a few strong-willed people who choose their own path, but for the most part I reason that riders just follow the herd. What's the French for herd? Why, it's "peloton"!! I'll dope cos everyone else is. I won't dope cos nobody else is. For that reason I think the current peloton is packed full of riders who have doped at some point in their careers but who are not now. You have a few like O'Grady who were around back in 1998. You have a lot more who were around in those years up to 2006. You look at Cadel Evans's 2011 Tour win and can be happy it was clean. You look at Cadel Evan's 8th place in the 2005 Tour, and all those around him in the rest of the top 20 (Armstrong, Ullrich, Basso, Mancebo, Rasmussen, Vinokourov, Leipheimer, Landis, Pereiro, Moreau, Popovych, Mazzoleni, Hincapie, Zubeldia, Jaksche, Julich, Sevilla, Kashechkin, Guerini) and you think - was he the only one getting a top 20 clean?

The point here to my mind is you need to give people a 2nd chance. New era, slate clean. This is why I am firmly in the Millar reformist camp.

[JDizzle]

So the French have been re-testing some samples from the '98 Tour and it turns out both first and second, Ullrich and Pantani, tested positive for EPO. No-one saw that coming.

[Mike Selig]

That is an impressive list from 2006...

I tend to agree with Olly.

As I said in the TdF thread, one of the real damaging consequences of all this is that now everytime we see a great ride we put a massive question mark by it. Yet cycling is quite possibly one of the cleanest sports around at the moment - almost certainly cleaner than athletics (obviously), football, rugby, boxing...

[Mike Selig]

The French senate (upper chamber - kind of an elected house of Lords) has just published a report on doping practices in sport. The results back up my above post.

Of all the sports, in France, cycling has been by far the most tested: more than 1800 tests, followed by athletics (1164), football and rugby union lagging far behind (fewer than 600 tests each). Of those, cycling actually had the lowest ratio of "abnormal" results. At international level, the most abnormalities are in curling (!) followed by weightlifting and boxing.

No blood tests were done in the German bundesliga last year. The top tennis players were tested without warning no more than 3 times each.

The report made clear that most, possibly all sports have a use for doping. This includes sports like golf and cricket...

Time for people to get their heads out of the sand IMO, and take a leaf out of cycling's book and make an effort to tackle the problem.

[dummy_half]

Re Olly's post - is it possible Evans ws clean in 2006? My answer is, given the lack of evidence connecting him to any of the scandals and known doping doctors (one known visit to Dr Ferrari right at the start of his road career, for physiological testing) is a very defininte and definitive 'err, maybe'.

The mid 00s was a different era from the pre-Festina bust era of 98 - the major changes were the 50% haemacrit limit and the availability of a reasonably reliable test for EPO in blood samples. I think basically from about 93/4 (when Ariostea/Gewiss* mastered effective EPO use) to 98, every major result should be asterisked as 'probably achieved with EPO' - as a rider, why would you not take a drug that was demonstrably improving riders performance* and for which no reliable test was available? There were a few hold-outs (Bassons, perhaps Boardman), but they were the exceptions to the rule.

Early to mid 00s, obviously (as the Armstrong case shows) doping was still prevalent but the amount of blood boosting that could be achieved was markedly less (unless you had the UCI in your pocket), so it may have been possible for an outstanding talent to compete and get some results clean - it is widely accepted that David Moncoutie was clean and he managed to win several Grand Tour stages and mountain jerseys and get respectable GC finishes. The other thing that suggests some level of cleaning up the peloton was that you could suddenly identify the 'obvioulsy doped' performances (Sella, Schumacher, Rebellin, Ricco).

Now, following Operacion Puerto and Contador's bust and with the bio passport system in place, my suspicion is that the the majority of the peloton are riding clean for the majority of the time - clearly there will still be doping positives, but these seem to have slipped back to being first generation EPO plus the sorts of things that would be associated with contaminated or unsuitable supplements. The key point is though that the benefits of doping have been reduced to the point where the balance of benefits from doping compared with the risk of getting caught and suspended (plus the effect of bad publicity on sponsors) is currently tipped towards essentially clean racing.

* Exhibit 1 - Berzin, Exhibit 2 - Riis, Exhibit 3 - Ivan Gotti. All burst to prominence in the 93-95 era, all riding for Gewiss.

[JDizzle]

I don't know if anyone has a source for this, but I'm sure I've read it somwhere and will try to find it but someone in the know came out and said that it was '99.9% Armstrong was doping in his comeback' and this was with the Biological passport system so if this is the case, why was nothing done?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/lancearmstrong/9831270/Lance-Armstrong-doped-during-cycling-comeback-insists-USADA-chief.html 'One in a million chance that it was not to do with doping in blood test results'.

[whocares]

Some casualties from the french senate report: Biljlevens and olano have been sacked by their teams (they were managers). How long for Riis to lose his other sponsor (tinkoff didnt renew). Stuart o grady got the boot from the aussie olympic comittee. Jalabert job is probably vulnerable. All this naming is a bit unfair and seems that the focus will always be on cyclism rather than other sport (a bit like for someone who has done jail ).
Apparently McQuaid sent a letter to the senate asking not to give names.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

On the Tinkoff ditching Riis, I think that is more to do with Oleg Tinkoff wanting to create his own side. He's sort of the Roman Abramovich/Jerry Jones of cycling, likes to have his say in the team selection, has a lot of cash.

[whocares]

On the Tinkoff ditching Riis, I think that is more to do with Oleg Tinkoff wanting to create his own side. He's sort of the Roman Abramovich/Jerry Jones of cycling, likes to have his say in the team selection, has a lot of cash.

Fair point olly.
Didnt he used to have a team before with the likes of hamilton?

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

On the Tinkoff ditching Riis, I think that is more to do with Oleg Tinkoff wanting to create his own side. He's sort of the Roman Abramovich/Jerry Jones of cycling, likes to have his say in the team selection, has a lot of cash.

Fair point olly.
Didnt he used to have a team before with the likes of hamilton?

I think so.
Wouldn't be surprised to see him set up his own side and pump a lot into it. Riis will find a new sponsor, they got a heck of a squad at Saxo

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

In transfer news, Mark Renshaw will join up with Cav at Omega-Pharma next season

And in more surprising news so will Rigoberto Uran. Obviously not happy with Sky not making him a Tour leader yet, he's moved onto a classics team, who are not usually interested in the GC at Grand Tours. Strange move

[whocares]

what is the future of Wiggins ? at 33, he looks to have peaked and recently hinted that he wont be a grand tour contender anymore and recognised that he would not have been able to keep up with Froome. will he concentrate on classics? I think he's waiting for the next TDF route to be announced to decide if he stays with Sky or go somewhere else.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

The Vuelta started today, Astana taking the stage in the team time trial

[alfie]

Nibali must have a great chance of completing the Giro/Vuelta double , no ?

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

I dunno Alfie, he's not been in great shape coming in, and I think he's focusing on the Worlds more.

I fancied Henao pre-Vuelta, but he got dropped on the first proper climb!!

[Lumbering_Jack]

Has any drug free rider ever done the treble?

[djlovesyou]

Has any drug free rider ever done the treble?

Which treble? In the same year or in their career?

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

What in one season?

I'd be very surprised if anybody's done the Giro, Tour, Vuelta treble in a season

BTW no positive tests at this years Tour was announced a week or two back

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