Who will make the AP Play-Offs and Top 6?

4 rounds to go and play-off places definitely up for grabs. Top 3 look as if they should make it, with Saints and Glaws still in the fight. Cannot exclude Wasps but it will be tough for them. Bath and Exeter still hopeful of making HEC but narrow losses this weekend have not helped.


3 rounds left and starting to take shape. Whilst not quite mathematically through, with a 13pt lead over 5th and 11pts over 3rd - Sarries will have a home semi. Tigers big win over Saints and Quins loss to Gloucester make the Leicester boys odds on favourites to join them. Quins v Saints on the last weekend could still be a hugely important game.

Just two rounds to go and really the play-off spots are all but settled. Sarries and Tigers will in all probability be hosting Quins and Saints, with just who travels where to be decided. Gloucester can still make it, but their form is poor, they have two tricky matches remaining and the two sides above them have reasonably straightforward matches in round 21. Glaws should be back in the HEC as the teams below them have their own tricky run-in.

Exeter have sneaked into 6th spot and will hope that victory over Wasps next week would be enough to stay there - certainly you can't see Bath beating both Leicester and Sarries!!


Current Table after round 20:
Sarries 72pts
Tigers 68pts
Quins 60pts
Saints 59pts
--------------------
Glaws 54pts
Exeter 50pts
===============
Bath 48pts
Wasps 47pts



Remaining fixtures:

Sarries: Gloucester (A), Bath (H)
Tigers: Bath (A), London Irish (H),
Quins: Worcester (A), Northampton (H)
Saints: Sale (H), Harlequins (A)
Glaws: Saracens (H), Exeter (A)
Exeter: Wasps (A), Gloucester (H)

Bath: Leicester (H), Saracens (A)
Wasps: Exeter (H), Sale (A)

My quess as to how the table will finish:

Quins 74
Sarries 73
Tigers 71
Wasps 59
Saints 59
Gloucester 57
Bath 53
Exeter 49

Quins,Saracens,Leicester,Wasps but unsure how the table will look.

I would say Leicester have the easiest run in.

Saints have the toughest run in.

I think Gloucester have the trickiest run-in. 2 of their 3 home matches are Quins and Sarries, while you can easily see them losing all 3 away matches.

I think Quins, Sarries, Leicester and Wasps will make the play offs in that order. Leaving a Quins/Sarries final.

Elsewhere, both Bath and Exe have a bit of catching up to do for the top 6. With a Bath hat on, the next 2 games are pretty vital, in particular a loss against Glaws is pretty much season over as far as the league goes I think.

Glaws have a tricky run-in but players are returning at the right time. Sinbad is only a week or two from coming back, Freddie's fit and hopefully big Jim and 36 will return for the Bath game.

Think we can win all but one home and one away. Hopefully getting at least 1 point in every game, as we've done all season.

Quote: "Sinbad is only a week or two from coming back"

Doesn't that also mean that he's only 4 weeks from his next injury?

I will update this after tomorrow's matches, but we have already had one major shock with Quins losing today.

Leicester & Sarries in the final after winning their home semis against Quins & Glaws

Quins, Sarries, Tigers, Wasps.

OP updated.

Shock defeat for Quins sees Sarries go top. These two meet in round 18 at Allianz Park.

Looking at my predicitons, Quins loss means I now think Sarries will finish top of the table, with Quins and Tigers fighting for 2nd.

Quins: Saracens (A) 1, Gloucester (A) 4, Bath (H) 4, Worcester (A) 4, Northampton (H) 4 =17
Sarries: Harlequins (H) 4, Wasps (A) 4, Worcester (H) 5, Gloucester (A) 5, Bath (H) 4 = 22
Tigers: Exeter (A) 4, Northampton (A) 1, Wasps (H) 4, Bath (A) 4, London Irish (H) 5 =18

Sarries 81
Quins 72
Tigers 72

That's how I expect the table to finish although Quins and Tigers may swap depending upon tries scored etc

Obviously one think we can't take in to account is team's resting players,it'll have to happen but how many and when?

Yappysnap you think Saracens will get 22 points in their last 5 games! Wow I would take that.

I am not so sure that Tigers will beat Exeter. Neither am I sure that Saracens or Quins will beat Gloucester away.

I am also very nervous about the Quins game.

I still think top 4 is all up for grabs.

yappysnap wrote:Quins: Saracens (A) 1, Gloucester (A) 4, Bath (H) 4, Worcester (A) 4, Northampton (H) 4 =17
Sarries: Harlequins (H) 4, Wasps (A) 4, Worcester (H) 5, Gloucester (A) 5, Bath (H) 4 = 22
Tigers: Exeter (A) 4, Northampton (A) 1, Wasps (H) 4, Bath (A) 4, London Irish (H) 5 =18

Sarries 81
Quins 72
Tigers 72

That's how I expect the table to finish although Quins and Tigers may swap depending upon tries scored etc

Obviously one think we can't take in to account is team's resting players,it'll have to happen but how many and when?

i can't see that happening to be honest, theres 14 games there so theres bound to be a few upsets in there.

I reckon Quins will win their last 3 matches but could easily lose the next 2.

I reckon Sarries should win their 3 home games (including vs Quins) but could easily lose both away games.

I reckon Tigers will win both home games - but will probably lose at least one away match.

Alos if Tigers finish level on points with Sarries or Quins, they will probably be below them in the table as matches won is the first divider.

Tigers ar 1pt and 1 win behind Quins, 5pts and 2 wins behind Sarries.

As if Sarries will leave Kingsholm with 5 points! I actually have them penciled in to win there, but I fully expect us to beat Quins.

Londontiger I agree with that assessment.

Its even more certain now that the current top 3 will be in there, the big question really is who will be 4th.
Wasps has had two horrible defeats to poor teams, and look to have blown their load too early, only 3 points behind but heading the wrong way.
Saints have the points on the board, so Id favour them over Glaws to make up the top 4.

It take something remarkable for Bath or Exeter to make it now

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:Its even more certain now that the current top 3 will be in there, the big question really is who will be 4th.
Wasps has had two horrible defeats to poor teams, and look to have blown their load too early, only 3 points behind but heading the wrong way.
Saints have the points on the board, so Id favour them over Glaws to make up the top 4.

It take something remarkable for Bath or Exeter to make it now

Agree with that. To be honest, I'd be happy with top 6. We aren't gonna win at Sarries/Quins anyway.

Have high hopes for a settled squad next season, though.

So it'll probably finish with:

Sarries v Saints
Quins v Tigers

So from that a SarriesvQuins final?

Have Saints even beaten Saracens at FG's in the last few seasons?

yappysnap wrote:
Have Saints even beaten Saracens at FG's in the last few seasons?

Saracens are on a 3 match winning streak over Saints. Most recent Saints victory was last season:

Northampton 30 Saracens 8 http://www.premiershiprugby.com/matchcentre/fixtures/573.php

Saints only lost by 1pt when Sarries hosted them at MK this season.

Saracens' record against Saints and also Quins in the last 4 seasons is very good indeed.

Leicester is still the side to be most wary of. Leicester are always there or thereabouts - one of Quins or Sarries are certain to drop points. Leicester can capitalise on this.

yappysnap wrote:So it'll probably finish with:

Sarries v Saints
Quins v Tigers

So from that a SarriesvQuins final?

Have Saints even beaten Saracens at FG's in the last few seasons?

didn't the Tigers beat the quins at the stoop last year?

yappysnap wrote:So it'll probably finish with:

Sarries v Saints
Quins v Tigers

So from that a SarriesvQuins final?

Have Saints even beaten Saracens at FG's in the last few seasons?

I agree this is the most probable top 4.
Gloucester could easily get in there and displace Saints, however.

Saints have struggled against Saracens. But the last match was only one point difference and Saints could have won. If they do play in the semis, will form prevail? or will the odds catch up?

doctor grey psychologically Saints struggle vs Saracens. It can be difficult to break the trend - e.g. England vs South Africa.

Saints have been in quite a few tight encounters but come on the wrong side of the scoreline.

No team is unbeatable but some sides do act as significant stumbling blocks.

E.g. Quins used to have an appalling record vs Leicester but in the last two seasons they have turned that on it's head.

Thing is Sarries are a better side now. Forget the psychology and the past results, they are the better side. Thats why theyd be favourites to win.
You could also look to Quins improving their record against Tigers as co-inciding with them being the best theyve been for years.

Well, back to the club stuff, and some juicy fixtures this week, top and bottom.

Sarries will be looking to maintain their Allianz record. If a win over Quins is followed by an Exeter win at home to Tigers and Sarries have opened a sizeable gap. Should the results go the otherway and there is a logjam at the top.

Silly as it might sound I wouldn't play Farrell,Ashton,Goode or Barritt vs Quins.

In my opinion they need a week off to recover mentally and physically.

Still start mako though. Perhaps Farrell on the bench actually.

What would Quins fans want? Do you want your England guys thrown straight back in vs Saracens?

London tiger as you say it's crunch weekend. Would be nice if Exeter did us yet another favour!

If I were McCall I would definitely start Mako and Barritt with Farrell on the bench. Careful thought does need to be paid to how Ashton and goode are re-integrated.

Quins should look at giving Robshaw a rest, but other than that you can see most of the regulars supplanting the boys playing in the LV today. Care, Evans, Johnston, Robson, Easter, Monye coudl all be a little rusty - and need to find form before the HEC 1/4 final

Londontiger I would agree with that.

I hope Quins do rest Robshaw. He does need it to be honest.

Will be interesting to see how both sides do with most of the frontline players having 2-3 weeks off. They could be rusty as you say.

Also Saracens in their last few games have had patchy first halves but been strong in the 2nd half.

beshocked wrote:Londontiger I would agree with that.

I hope Quins do rest Robshaw. He does need it to be honest.

Will be interesting to see how both sides do with most of the frontline players having 2-3 weeks off. They could be rusty as you say.

Also Saracens in their last few games have had patchy first halves but been strong in the 2nd half.

You may hope, I am not sure it will happen. Quins are not the same team without Robshaw (though I would be interested to see what would happen if COS gave Wallace the captaincy for an AP game rather than Easter - he has been excellent as the LV captain), and his form and fitness are such that he doesn't seem to need much time off at the moment. The player who might be rested is Evans - he's looked out of sorts in the last couple of games and Botica and the much-maligned Clegg have gone really well in their last couple of outings. That said, the maestro has had a couple of weeks' rest to get his fitness back, so maybe he will start.

I would also expect Quins to start both Robshaw and Brown next weekend, and Marler either to start or be on the bench. Possible team is:

Brown, Williams, Hopper, JTH, Monye, Evans, Care, Lambert, Gray, Johnston, Kohn, Robson, Guest, Robshaw, Easter
Bench: Buchanan, Marler, Collier, Matthews, Wallace/Fa'asavalu, Dickson, Botica, Chisholm (or Smith, or Lowe...)

I'm expecting a tough but exciting game, given how Sarries have played during the international window and that the pitch at AP will suit Quins' style. Both sides will be very much up for the game.

Evans has had two weeks off. how much more rest can he be given if he is to play against Munster?

With all Robshaw has gone through in the last month and a half - surely it would be better for Quins to give him a week off?

I'd rest Robshaw, just because he looked tired for the first time in ages on Saturday and to be fair he gets very little rest. I'd play:

Brown
Williams
Hopper
JTH
Monye
Evans
Care
Easter
Wallace (c.)
Guest
Robson
Kohn
Johnston
Gray
Lambert

Marler, Buchanan, Sinckler , Matthews, Fa'asavalu, Dickson, Botica, Chisholm

Lowe on the wing CJ? From memory that experiment earlier in the season did not end well.

That should read Monye, thanks for the spot

I'd be happy with that team was long as Wallace were the captain, but if COS has one blind spot it's that he can't see that Easter is a fine player but never seems to quite make it click as captain.

Perhaps I'd also improve the odds by putting Casson in at 12, purely because he has a win/loss ratio in a Quins shirt that would make Richie McCaw proud.

I'd seriously look at using Lowe at 13 and Casson at 12. Also I wouldn't play both Monye and Williams, it's looked pretty pants so far this season, either Chisholm on one wing or Smith Please.

Otherwise I have no problem with that team, although i'm 99% certain Mo will be at 6 (can't decide if that's good or not).

Saints win at Adams Park probably rules Wasps out of the play-off race, with Wasps facing a tricky set of fixtures to try and secure an HEC spot.

Should Sarries win today they have virtually guaranteed a home semi and would be overwhelming favourites to be number 1 seeds.

OP updated with all results.

Huge match for Quins on Friday

Not really good enough today

ChequeredJersey wrote:Not really good enough today

Completely lacklustre today, they just seemed as if they could not be arsed. the lack of support runners was very telling.

Been that way for the last few games except in the LV.

Not really sure what can be done about it except give more of the LV crew a run out, maybe rest Robshaw and put Wallace in as captain.

Worrying times, Glos next week looks an up hill battle.

Yappysnap Robshaw looked knackered. Definitely needs a rest in my opinion.

Care and Marler have continued with their poor form.

Brown looked very impressive though.

I think you need to play more of the LV guys personally.

Equally I think Saracens need to rest their England guys too. Both Quins and Saracens want their internationals fit and firing for the HC.

Trust in the strength in depth.

The consolation for you is that Gloucester seemed to struggle badly with London Welsh.

Plus Leicester have to go to Saints which shouldn't be easy.

With a short turn round for Quins they may well chhose to rest some for Glaws on Friday. thing is though they would really want as many starters playing the week before the 1/4 final surely?

With hindsight (wonderful thing - makes us all experts) they should have rested players yesterday.

Another poor game for Ashton v Quins , and yet another yellow card for foul play. He's trying too hard and must calm down.

I can see Glaws pinching a win V Quins on Friday. I think Tigers will draw with Saints at The Gardens.

Jimpy wrote:Another poor game for Ashton v Quins , and yet another yellow card for foul play. He's trying too hard and must calm down.

I can see Glaws pinching a win V Quins on Friday. I think Tigers will draw with Saints at The Gardens.

While I do not think it was malicious, I did feel the tackle was bad enough that Ashton should have been sent off rather than just yellow. (I am biaised though as a stiff arm tackle like that fractured 3 vertebrae in my neck)


I am hopeful that we can extend the winning streak over Saints to 6 matches.

LondonTiger wrote:

Jimpy wrote:Another poor game for Ashton v Quins , and yet another yellow card for foul play. He's trying too hard and must calm down.

I can see Glaws pinching a win V Quins on Friday. I think Tigers will draw with Saints at The Gardens.

While I do not think it was malicious, I did feel the tackle was bad enough that Ashton should have been sent off rather than just yellow. (I am biaised though as a stiff arm tackle like that fractured 3 vertebrae in my neck)


I am hopeful that we can extend the winning streak over Saints to 6 matches.

I'm not sure how you can say you didn't think it was malicious but that he should have seen red? It was a swinging arm from where I was sitting, he was lucky not to be sent off.

beshocked wrote:Yappysnap Robshaw looked knackered. Definitely needs a rest in my opinion.

Care and Marler have continued with their poor form.

Brown looked very impressive though.

I think you need to play more of the LV guys personally.

Equally I think Saracens need to rest their England guys too. Both Quins and Saracens want their internationals fit and firing for the HC.

Trust in the strength in depth.

The consolation for you is that Gloucester seemed to struggle badly with London Welsh.

Plus Leicester have to go to Saints which shouldn't be easy.

You see I thought the whole team played badly not just Care and Marler.

I definitely think a few more LV guys should get a run out against Glaws. Just not sure who. We need Kohn back as well.

Saracens made our lives massively difficult and we just didn't look up for the contest, your front 5 were far more dynamic then ours, Gray and Johnston were anonymous for Quins and so were our locks.

For the Glaws game i'd like to see:

1.Lambert
2. Buchanan
3.Johnston
4.Matthews/Kohn (injury permitting)
5. Robson
6.Guest
7.Wallace
8.Easter[
9.Dickson
10.Evans
11.Smith
12.Casson
13.Lowe
14.Williams/Monye (injury permitting)
15.Chisholm

16.Marler,17.Gray,18.Marfo,19.Matthews/Browne,20.Robshaw,21.Care,22.Botica,23.Brown

Bench all the England boys for a bit of a rest, start the guys that helped win us the LV cup and retain Evans in the hope he hits form. Wallace to captain as he's far better at it then Easter, hope that Kohn will be back to give us some bang in the front five. Scary good looking bench as well.

Perhaps though Care needs gametime? He has not had huge amounts in th elast two months and I felt he looked rusty yesterday.

Coming off the bench for England he has looked sharp, starting against Italy he was not good but in part I put that down to them trying to play the box-kicking game. His one appearnace for Quins in that time was against us. We would have won that game if Dickson had played.