Indian wells the draw is out and lookey, lookey we could have a fedal quaterfinal!!!

Djoko, Murray in the same half. Del po is in murray's quarter, Tsonga is in Djoko's quarter, and ferrer v. Berdy in the other quarter. But of course everyone will be talking about the Fedal quarterfinal. I love it, poor Hawkeye first Murray wins a slam and now Federer and Nadal set to battle not in a semi, but in a quarter. My commiserations Hawkeye. Interesting possible second round match as Djokovic most likely will play Fogninniiiii!!!!!!!! Maybe the most anticipated second round match in the history of the masters.

Well now we will get to see how far along that leg is for Nadal, I really do hope for the sake of his fans, the sport as a whole, and himself that he can catch a break and the leg holds for a long time. This might be a good time for fed to pick up a win in their h2h, but frankly I don't think so. Nadal is putting up incredible numbers holding 93 percent of the time and breaking 36 percent of the time, that is winning 64 percent of the games he plays and on the men's tour that is a big number. To me his shotmaking looks as good as ever. The serve and backhand in particular look frightening. If Nadal remains healthy he will be a top contender for all the remaining slams.

Interesting, I don't know if this is something IW is doing or if this is for all the masters. They have expanded the field and given all 32 seeds byes in the first round. As opposed to in the past when the top 8 players received byes. The winner will take home a cool million by far, far the biggest payday of any regular masters, making Indian wells 6th million dollar payday tournament on tour.

Murray and Djoko have somewhat easier quarters, I would rate Fed's the toughest quarter, although really only Nadal is particularly menacing, but in terms of depth of talent Ferrer probably has the toughest quarter. Can we set this charade aside and just seed Nadal 4 at the least?

a slam size field with buys for the seeds. Maybe next year they will revert to 5 set finals?

Federer will have to sort out his serve quickly or face the possibilty of dumping out prior to the 1/4. Even Nadal untested on this surface since almost a year could be under some pressure in earlier rounds although he seems to have paced and prepped himself well to this point in the comeback.

Nice post quietplease some very salient points. Yes there is a possible early round rematch in there for fed with bennetteau. But actually outside of fed and Nadal I don't see too many upset scares there. It isn't quite a slam sized field but it is 24 players if my math is right bigger than last year's field. Nadal in my mind is going to surprise people with how well he is playing, his shotmaking looks as good if not better than ever in my mind. The guy is what 12-1, where is the rust? I guess the rust showed up in that one match. True different surfaces here but this could get very interesting.

Nice to have new poster. Stick around and enjoy IW with us.

This is a huge draw, almost slam like. 6 rounds in total, 5 for top 32 seeds. Plus the top 32 seeds mirror the top 32 ranked players, so everyone is here! Not sure if you're overhyping Nadal there Socal, he's only faced 2 top 12 players, it was his fave surface in almost hometown Latin conditions and hasn't played hard court for a year....and IW is very different to the past 4 weeks. This won't be easy for him at all and he's going to be preoccupied by the reaction of the knee each round.

Observations:

1. Great to have Mardy Fish back playing
2. Potential HC banana skins for Nadal early on in solid players Harrison & The Colonel but I'd expect him to beat them if knee ok
3. Djokovic looks to have an ok quarter...Foggy, Dimitrov, Querrey, Tsonga shouldn't pose problems
4. Murray looks to have easiest quarter, can't see any issues until semis
5. Federer has some dark horses there inc Julien...but he should be ok, Benneteau isn't as good on slower HC. Don't think we'll see Nadal v Rosol in 1/4s
6. Be interesting to see how Berdy, Stan, Tsonga, Del Po get on to see if they're going to make a push in 2013
7. Likewise we get to see if the hype about Janowicz is exactly that
8. Finally, I'll not be watching Seed Plough vs Drive-thru Dave in R1

Are they doing this at every master's or is this more of ellison's push to make IW special?

laugh out loud on point 8. How dare you disparage the super talented one, by the way Drive-thrus I thought were a uniquely American thing.

Some interesting clashes ahead.

As defending champion Federer has another boatload of points on the line. Last year he took out both Nadal and Delpo here comfortably, but early season form means that just making the quarters is far from certain for him.

Not sure who will stop the roller coaster that is Djoko. If circumstances combine, Murray can end the tourney as Number 2, so a good incentive there. I fully expect Rafa to make at least the semis, and would not be overly-surprised to see him take the title.

Let battle commence

I agree outside of drawing the short straw of Nadal, not much to fear in either player's quarter. Damn it I wish I took the time off of work and got the quarterfinal tickets now.

Harrison is really struggling right now lydian he needs to do something or he could fall out of the top 100, I think he plays too far back and doesn't flatten it out effectively enough or often enough to bother Nadal. I like the kid's game I don't know why he positions himself in Monfils land.

Don't know socal...perhaps. However, these 2 Masters are always spread out whereas other Masters are packed into 1 week so can't expand draws.

Yep, we have drive thrus at Golden Arches, BK, KFC (The Colonel!) and the like. Our TV is full of American programmes, and our media full of US celebrities...it's the 51st (53rd) state here...

Agree lags that Nadal could go far, and yet he could go out R2 also, a weird set of possibilities. A good week in prospect for us tennis fans.

Agree re: Harrison, I thought he was in Dimitrov/Tomc mould and be pushing top 20-30 by now. Has a very nice game but seems to becoming less aggressive. Surely his talent will push on again at some point though. Be interesting to see how the young guys Grigor/Bernard/Kei and David (Goffin) get on. Goffin is playing horrible at moment and probably still reeling from a double bagel to journeyman Nieminen! Baggy is always a loose cannon to watch out for...

Indian Wells is always a 96 player draw. I don't think anything has changed?

Maybe BS, perhaps the 1st round bye for all 32 seeds is making us think otherwise.

All I can say is

Seriously though good draw all round if your neutral. Something in it for everyone.

Useful feedback on the draw...

There were certainly 32 seeds last year and i don't recall that being a change. IW is always longer than most masters as it has a larger draw.

A draw of 96 would always require the 32 seeds getting a bye, leaving 64 players to complete for the other 32 spaces in the last 64.
I don't see how there could be a change.

Have to say that I'm really happy with the draw. Above all, I wanted the Fedal match, and the rest of it seems fairly balanced with some tests for the top guys. Thankfully the 'nightmare quarter' scenario has been avoided, with Murray on Novak's side of the draw. Actually quite looking forward to the Fognini match, socal! Should be some good shotmaking if nothing else, provided he turns up

As for Federer - Nadal, I reckon it's on Fed's racket to an extent. Nadal looks good but it's impossible to say how his body's going to react after a full year away, and Fed's a different class of opposition altogether...he makes people run like rabbits even if he's playing badly, so it'll be a real test for Rafa's knee. If Fed turns up in good form I'd expect him to go through in straights, but anything else and it's a pick'em in my mind depending on the great many variables! Including the wind, of course.

Think Murray could upset Djokovic too, the BO3 format could help him and a better player would've capitalised on a few lapses that we've seen from Novak this season; Dubai final definitely comes to mind. Should be a cracker if they both get there.

You're absolutely right, I looked at the draw last year and its 96 man, top 32 with 1st round byes. Socal, you need to amend your article!

In qualifying I see Christian Harrison (younger brother of Ryan) took Gulbis to 3 sets. Didn't know he had a brother until I checked ATP site... http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Ha/C/Christian-Harrison.aspx

At 5'10 and 68kg he's going to struggle amongst the behemoths out there but he's within top400 by 18 which is as good as anyone these days so maybe another one to keep an eye on.

Nice analysis Silver, agree with much of that

I'm seriously excited about this tournament. So many narratives and so much to gain for each of the top guys.

Djokovic - a win would take him to to 32-1 since USO and 5 of the last 6 tournaments, brilliant numbers. A win against Andy give him some significant momentum in that match up - it would be 4 wins in a row.

Federer - whilst rumours of his demise are premature, he does need a good showing here. Another tournament where he struggles for form would only give confidence to his future opponents, and I don't just mean the top guys. I think Fed needs his 'aura' intact against some of the lesser players. The more people who believe they can beat him will lead to more people beating him.

Murray - essential that he has a good tournament. If he has serious aspirations for being #1, he must consign the 'spring slump' to the past. Also, his post USO open record, whilst not poor, has not been great either. Defeated by Djokovic at Shanghai, WTF and AO, Fed at WTF and the only tournament actually won was Brisbane. A win here would lay down a marker as to the challenge he is going to pose.

Nadal - the great unknown!In a way, he's almost in a "no lose" situation. If he plays well, that will be a strong message to the tour. If he can win on a HC... well, the chances of anyone taking anything from him on clay would look remote. A defeat though, could be passed of as merely what we expect. The only possible downside I can see is if he gets to the final but takes a bit of a beating from Novak. I wonder if that may cause some doubts to resurface in him in that match up?

Prediction? Tough but I kind of have a hunch about Andy beating Rafa in the final.

Thanks lydian. And great post HM, I completely agree with you on all counts. This is a vital tournament for Fed and Murray in particular; in addition to your reasoning, they're both vying for #2, the former is taking an extended break afterwards and the latter has big numbers to defend at Miami.

Fascinating, I can't wait!

As many have said this draw is almost perfect from a neutral standpoint. I think its imperative Murray has a good run here unlike the last two years, especially considering he's got a relatively easier run to the semi. Meanwhile, Djokovic simply needs to continue the consistent play he's been churning out for the past 4 months. The Nadal v Federer quarter final is what i desperately want to see though as its been too long since the last battle between the two. I actually give the edge to Nadal when you take into account Fed's age and indifferent form recently whilst Nadal, who has the inherent matchup advantage, must be running high on confidence after his resounding win at Acapulco. I'm not sure the court is fast enough to allow Fed's groundstrokes & serve to dominate. Either way, I hope its another classic and a good tourny overall. Can't wait

BBC Radio Five Live are getting almost as excited as they do for Wimbledon and have a 'tennis special' this evening live from Indian Wells ........

Can't wait for it to start. It is shaping up to be a great tournament

lags72 wrote:BBC Radio Five Live are getting almost as excited as they do for Wimbledon and have a 'tennis special' this evening live from Indian Wells ........

Any idea what time this is on? It's not mentioned in the listings.

Harrison and Goffin are in very poor form ATM. No ideal what young Ryan's issues are but he is regressing noticeably and needs a solid few consecutive victories to help rebuild some confidence.

Other young players I expect ( ok hope) to make a move here are Raonic, Tomic, and Dimitrov. Raonic of the three has perhaps the most difficult road to travel but he played well here last year in losing in three sets to the eventual champion.

Gulbis when he hits a good patch is always unpredictable and would be a good dark horse.

Best bet for a second round upset- Gasquet

quietplease wrote:Harrison and Goffin are in very poor form ATM. No ideal what young Ryan's issues are but he is regressing noticeably and needs a solid few consecutive victories to help rebuild some confidence.

Other young players I expect ( ok hope) to make a move here are Raonic, Tomic, and Dimitrov. Raonic of the three has perhaps the most difficult road to travel but he played well here last year in losing in three sets to the eventual champion.

Gulbis when he hits a good patch is always unpredictable and would be a good dark horse.

Best bet for a second round upset- Gasquet

Not much to add to what has been said already .. but there looks like some exciting matches coming up

The Fedal QF is obviously the big one but I am looking forward to a potential Murray Delpo QF too. Have been waiting for that match up since Delpo returned to competition .

quietplease wrote:a slam size field with buys for the seeds. Maybe next year they will revert to 5 set finals?

Federer will have to sort out his serve quickly or face the possibilty of dumping out prior to the 1/4. Even Nadal untested on this surface since almost a year could be under some pressure in earlier rounds although he seems to have paced and prepped himself well to this point in the comeback.

Welcome to 606v2. Hope you are doing well.

ALPanorak wrote: I'm not sure the court is fast enough to allow Fed's groundstrokes & serve to dominate. Either way, I hope its another classic and a good tourny overall. Can't wait

Last year, with the windy and humid conditions, Federer did win.

carrieg4 wrote:The Fedal QF is obviously the big one but I am looking forward to a potential Murray Delpo QF too. Have been waiting for that match up since Delpo returned to competition .

Great spot, Carrie. Yes, I'm looking forward to this one too. It's been over 3 years since they last played!

Lydian, you did state 6 rounds, but it's actually 7 when you think about it, same as a slam. Are we seriously saying that all of the top 32 are in the draw?

I think Rafa would beat Federer, if he gets that far in the first place.

The young'uns Dimitrov/Kei/Raonic/Harrison/Janowicz/Goffin are what I am looking forward to as well, to see what they do.

Is anyone looking at this http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2013/404/qs.pdf ?

Gulbis-Rochus, Berankis-Pospisil, Ruffin-Petzschner, Ebden-Dancevic are some interesting ones.

Henman Bill wrote:Lydian, you did state 6 rounds, but it's actually 7 when you think about it, same as a slam. Are we seriously saying that all of the top 32 are in the draw?

I think Rafa would beat Federer, if he gets that far in the first place.

... and two rounds of qualifying, perhaps Gulbis can win IW 2013 after Delray 2013.

HB, on the draw the seedings match the rankings so I'm presuming so. I bet that doesn't happen very often down to 32.

Yep for those in qualifying its a long haul to a potential final...!

Well just getting old I guess, good on those that remembered IW, in my defense I have been living in Iran for 3 years and unable to attend said tournament so this year it is a bit of a reunion with IW for me this year. But I could swear that this is a relatively recent change.

This is a good draw and almost slam size field with almost slam like money. The players unlike Cincy, Canada, Paris etc. are going to be fully focused and pretty well rested. At least most of the big names should be ready to go.

@LYdian, I think Harrsion has got the ability I particularly like the fact that he is pretty well polished and varied at his young age. But I don't understand how he played his whole life on hardcourts and spends all day so far behind the baseline allowing others to dictate. I am also interested in seeing if Jerzy can winning a couple of matches and make a run, he played well at the AO and during the indoors last year. My gut feeling is that he will be a big star in the near future.

socal1976. Don't worry about me! I'm more excited about IW than I have been about any tournament for... well ages. The title itself means little but just to have both Nadal and Federer in the same draw is great. If they get to play their exhibition match... sorry I mean quarter final all the better.

Come Hawk, how can you call the 6th major an exhibition the forum has been enthused with energy. You know me Hawkeye always thinking about the needs and feelings of my fellow posters.

socal. I am enthused with energy too...

HM Murdoch wrote:

lags72 wrote:BBC Radio Five Live are getting almost as excited as they do for Wimbledon and have a 'tennis special' this evening live from Indian Wells ........

Any idea what time this is on? It's not mentioned in the listings.

I believe it is on Five Live Sports Extra at 7pm GMT. Should be good, and nice to see the BBC taking an interest!

laverfan wrote:The young'uns Dimitrov/Kei/Raonic/Harrison/Janowicz/Goffin are what I am looking forward to as well, to see what they do.

These "young'uns" are pretenders. They aren't anywhere near ready to make inroads into the top 10 let alone the top 5 yet and i suspect all will have been knocked out by the quarters. Whilst Raonic and Kei are probably the most consistent of the bunch, they still don't have the full set of skills needed to successfully compete at the masters 1000/slam later stages. I don't see a talent similar to the 'big four' in this current 20yr - 24yr old class, notwithstanding any latent development...

I agree with that Al Panorak to an extent I don't see any of the current crop being able to match ability wise the big 4. But I think that has something to do with how special the top 4 guys really are and how fortunate we have been. But I also think that on the modern tour it takes longer for the stars to reach their peak. That being said I don't think it explains away how poorly the young guys have performed, we may be due for a transitional period in a couple of years.

I don't buy Jerzy is some major talent socal.
Once the others have got used to his serve he'll be toast at 6'8' - Nadal and Djokovic would have him moving all over the place until his legs gave way an hour into the match. He'll hover around 20ish mark - which is no mean feat but think Raonic is better overall and he's still not pushing to top 10 yet.

Outside the top 4, for me Berdy is still the most talented then Tsonga...after that we have a glut/hiatus/paucity...call it what you like, by now we're normally seeing major talent coming along. We're not and we're headed into WTA territory in a few years time - identikit players, no flair, same surfaces. Dull.

These things go in cycles Lydian, I think you are too negative and you know my feelings there isn't a need for drastic change. I think Jerzy is a big talent precisely because he is not just a big serve. I am most impressed with his quickness and agility for his size. The combination of good speed mixed with a monster serve is what does it for me. i think if he stays healthy and works hard he has slam talent.

why do you think bird is more talented than tsonga lydian?

There not a lot in it to be fair Luvsports, but for me if both players play their absolute best then Tomas is the more devastating player, he's so strong off the ground that he can make the game go past you very quickly. Ask Federer. He's also more adaptable across surfaces, winning titles on clay, grass, hard and carpet. JoW has only won on hardcourt. That speaks to greater flexibility and adaptability for Tomas. He's also been pretty good since USO last year and getting into his prime around now I believe. I still maintain he was badly affected by that freak wind at USO last year, more so than Murray - his high toss was badly affected, and he was in devastating form up to the SF point.

However, mentally he's not quite as strong as others with less ball striking talent. But he is getting better. If he was just a little stronger upstairs he'd be consistent 5th rank behind the others. And I think he will get there. Tsonga on the other hand is marginally better mentally than Berdych at key moments but tends to go walk about more during matches. Not masses between them though.

ALPanorak wrote:'These "young'uns" are pretenders. They aren't anywhere near ready to make inroads into the top 10 let alone the top 5 yet and i suspect all will have been knocked out by the quarters. Whilst Raonic and Kei are probably the most consistent of the bunch, they still don't have the full set of skills needed to successfully compete at the masters 1000/slam later stages..."

The main thing holding back Kei and Raonic from a 1/4 or better is self -belief.
Raonic has a semi decent record to date against top ten players and pressured Federer here last year.

Tomic has not accomplished as much -being a bit younger - but has a favourable draw so maybe some hope there too.

Silver wrote:Have to say that I'm really happy with the draw. Above all, I wanted the Fedal match, and the rest of it seems fairly balanced with some tests for the top guys. Thankfully the 'nightmare quarter' scenario has been avoided, with Murray on Novak's side of the draw. Actually quite looking forward to the Fognini match, socal! Should be some good shotmaking if nothing else, provided he turns up

As for Federer - Nadal, I reckon it's on Fed's racket to an extent. Nadal looks good but it's impossible to say how his body's going to react after a full year away, and Fed's a different class of opposition altogether...he makes people run like rabbits even if he's playing badly, so it'll be a real test for Rafa's knee. If Fed turns up in good form I'd expect him to go through in straights, but anything else and it's a pick'em in my mind depending on the great many variables! Including the wind, of course.

Think Murray could upset Djokovic too, the BO3 format could help him and a better player would've capitalised on a few lapses that we've seen from Novak this season; Dubai final definitely comes to mind. Should be a cracker if they both get there.

Great post silver as I said foggy v djoko could be the greatest and most eagerly anticipated second round match in masters history. Although I will say that despite Novak's recent form I have feeling that he may be due for an upset at some point or that Murray having lost three times in a row might get Novak in the semi because he will be a bit hungrier and more focused with the number 2 ranking on the line. I think in the feudal matchup I disagree with you in that I think nadal should win. Fed's form has not been inspiring so far this year

@SoCal - Feudal - Mobile phone auto-correction? Who is the Master and who is the Slave?

quietplease wrote:'These "young'uns" are pretenders. They aren't anywhere near ready to make inroads into the top 10 let alone the top 5 yet and i suspect all will have been knocked out by the quarters. Whilst Raonic and Kei are probably the most consistent of the bunch, they still don't have the full set of skills needed to successfully compete at the masters 1000/slam later stages..."

The main thing holding back Kei and Raonic from a 1/4 or better is self -belief.
Raonic has a semi decent record to date against top ten players and pressured Federer here last year.

Tomic has not accomplished as much -being a bit younger - but has a favourable draw so maybe some hope there too.

I also think that the players you mention have the ability to make it happen. But frankly the bar the top guys are setting is not something that even most world class pros can attain. The top 4 doesn't leave a lot of crumbs on the table for other players regardless of their age. Still Lydian is correct we have the oldest top 100 in history average age is 27. I do think however that the prime now for tennis players has been pushed back a bit because you just can't blast your way to the top of the game anymore on raw power anymore.