ATP PointsThingy - Rome Masters

And now........... we pray. 0:00am Moday morning, we shall find out if I haven't completely ballsed this up.

One thing worth mentioning though is that regardless of whether the points are wrong, the provisional totals in blue here are for 100% certain correct. So our positions are also correct.

And here it is!

Wow, that was quick - I just asked you about this on your other thread!

Green wrote:And here it is!

Wow, that was quick - I just asked you about this on your other thread!

Yeah, I just wrote this up as soon as I saw your question.

OK, not really, but I've developed a super-duper spreadsheet that calculates all the gains and losses over the last fortnight and throws out a total, that total is what you're seeing up there in the blue column (and before anyone goes for the smart answer, no it's not the column saying 'New Ranking' ).

"and before anyone goes for the smart answer, no it's not the column saying 'New Ranking' "
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There aren't any blue columns.

There's blue colour font in some of the columns though

You type fast!! And with one hand.

Green wrote:"and before anyone goes for the smart answer, no it's not the column saying 'New Ranking' "
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There aren't any blue columns.

There's blue colour font in some of the columns though

You type fast!! And with one hand.

GODDAMN COLUMNS WITH GODDAMN BLUE WRITING!!!!! GRAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

OK, maybe I'm not thaaaat angry. I'd hate to be his brother though.

Maybe i'll be that angry if the Madrid points don't go the right way for me at midnight?

That's sick! What the hell is a "W.O.W. account"?!

Green wrote:That's sick! What the hell is a "W.O.W. account"?!

I believe it is a video game. 'World of Warcraft'.

So don't make me angry, Green...... though I promise no tele remotes will be involved; that WAS sick.

"So don't make me angry, Green"
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Never again!

Green wrote:

"So don't make me angry, Green"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Never again!

Hmmmm.... you appear to have edited your comment there..... stirrer!

Oh well, on another note, I WAS RIGHT ABOUT THE POINTS! HOORAY!

I always knew of course. OK, maybe I wasn't sure. But the important thing is that both tables for Madrid and Rome are A-OK.

As always though I've probably made some errors, typed a wrong number in here or there, so if you do spot anything that I've missed then give me a shout.

Another great analysis of the vagaries of the ATP points system, stealth I think you are wasting your time here and should be working on creating a usuable nuclear fusion power generating system to save the world. Wow, just a few weeks ago who would of thought that Novak could hypothetically catch Nadal before RG!

Stealth Maestro Agro Love wrote:
Hmmmm.... you appear to have edited your comment there..... stirrer!

Didn't want others to know I told you to do that.

Here's a copy and paste of somebody else's comment from another board , I think it makes some things much clearer (at least to me )

"here is a more detailed version of the rankings to clear up everything.

last year rome was played before madrid. so rafa and novak (and all other players' points) now include last year's madrid's points as well as this year's. next monday, last year's madrid points get subtracted from their points.

last year rafa won, so he has 1000 points which will go off next monday, that will leave him at 11,470 (this 11,470 already includes the 600 points rafa got last sunday).

as for djokovic, he did not play madrid last year, so he loses 0 points next monday. so he stays at 10,665.


and rafa points will stay at 11,470 in the best case scenario for him (winning rome and fo)

for djokovic, he needs 805 extra points from rome and fo. (he has 360 points from last year)so if djokovic can get more than 1165 points at french open and rome, he will get no.1 after french even if rafa wins both rome and french open.

if djokovic makes final at rome, his making semis in paris will get him the no.1 ranking. if djokovic makes semi-final in rome, he will have to make finals in paris to get no.1

ofcourse, if nadal fails to win either rome/fo, djokovic will get no.1 much more easily. all in all, the odds are looking good for djokovic to get no.1 before wimbledon. rafa's situation is much worse than what fed's was, this time last year. fed gave the no.1 ranking in a platter to rafa losing in the quarters in fo, i am thinking rafa might not give in that easily, but make no mistake, the pressure is much higher than the pressure rafa felt in miami or madrid. no wonder rafa has memorably declared " the no.1 is not in danger, it is finished -let's not lie to ourselves" he's trying his best to get the pressure off his shoulders in true rafa style. remember how he declared fed favorite going into 2008 FO... LOL!"

noleisthebest wrote:Here's a copy and paste of somebody else's comment from another board , I think it makes some things much clearer (at least to me )

"here is a more detailed version of the rankings to clear up everything.

last year rome was played before madrid. so rafa and novak (and all other players' points) now include last year's madrid's points as well as this year's. next monday, last year's madrid points get subtracted from their points.

last year rafa won, so he has 1000 points which will go off next monday, that will leave him at 11,470 (this 11,470 already includes the 600 points rafa got last sunday).

as for djokovic, he did not play madrid last year, so he loses 0 points next monday. so he stays at 10,665.


and rafa points will stay at 11,470 in the best case scenario for him (winning rome and fo)

for djokovic, he needs 805 extra points from rome and fo. (he has 360 points from last year)so if djokovic can get more than 1165 points at french open and rome, he will get no.1 after french even if rafa wins both rome and french open.

if djokovic makes final at rome, his making semis in paris will get him the no.1 ranking. if djokovic makes semi-final in rome, he will have to make finals in paris to get no.1

ofcourse, if nadal fails to win either rome/fo, djokovic will get no.1 much more easily. all in all, the odds are looking good for djokovic to get no.1 before wimbledon. rafa's situation is much worse than what fed's was, this time last year. fed gave the no.1 ranking in a platter to rafa losing in the quarters in fo, i am thinking rafa might not give in that easily, but make no mistake, the pressure is much higher than the pressure rafa felt in miami or madrid. no wonder rafa has memorably declared " the no.1 is not in danger, it is finished -let's not lie to ourselves" he's trying his best to get the pressure off his shoulders in true rafa style. remember how he declared fed favorite going into 2008 FO... LOL!"

That post is wrong.

The total for Number 1 regardless of Nadal's victory isn't quite right there. If Nadal wins both his total simply won't change, so it's still 12470 points, 11470 is certainly not his maximum. This guy is assuming that Rome points are still on the tallies and that Rome and Madrid 2010 will drop on Monday; Rome points aren't, they dropped a fortnight ago.
REMEMBER ROME IS NOT ON THE PLAYERS POINTS TALLY AT THE MOMENT, SO THEY WILL REPLACE MADRID 2010!!!


Djokovic drops 360 points at Roland Garros, nothing drops for Madrid 2010. He automatically gains 10 points for Rome and Roland Garros as he will be in the first round draw, so that brings his total to 10665 - 360 + 20 = 10325

12470 - 10325 = 2145, so Djokovic needs 2146 points over the course of the two tournaments to guarantee #1.

Basically that's Djokovic's maximum requirement over the course of two tournaments. I'm only covering what the rankings will be like next week, hence why i'm not really referring to Roland Garros too much in this article.

If you want some Roland Garros info, i've got my spreadsheets up and running, so i'm happy to provide.

Is the bit about Nadal winning Rome and RG and Nole overtaking him on number one valid though (if Nole reaches the difference in points that exists now)

noleisthebest wrote:Is the bit about Nadal winning Rome and RG and Nole overtaking him on number one valid though (if Nole reaches the difference in points that exists now)

I'm afraid it isn't... The difference in points if Nadal wins Roland Garros and Rome will be 2145 points. You cannot accumulate that over the course of Rome and Roland Garros without winning one of them. The maximum for making 2 finals is 1200 + 600 = 1800 points. Nole would need 2146 if Nadal wins both - not achieveable.

Unless the post refers to overtaking in a tournament after Roland Garros. But then Fernando Verdasco, or Alex Bogomolov Jr could do that too.

Your poster has made the mistake of assuming Rome's points are dropping this week, and that would therefore make Nole's task seem far simpler than it is.

What he is right in saying is that Nole is a virtual certainty to overtake Nadal after Roland Garros if Nadal does not defend either trophy.

Hi Stealth,

I was wondering how Fer Verdasco's ranking is doing, considering he bombed again yesterday when he was a semi-finalist last year.

Wooffie wrote:Hi Stealth,

I was wondering how Fer Verdasco's ranking is doing, considering he bombed again yesterday when he was a semi-finalist last year.

If you read the above you'll be relieved to hear that Verdasco has already dropped his points for Rome, so since he's not dropping Rome, but Madrid 2010 points instead, he won't be dropping much this week. As it stands, the rankings surrounding Verdasco look as follows (at 19:20, 11/5/2011)

The court surfaces have been made the same. Discuss.

So with Tsonga, currently a set down to Federer, his only real threat, I wouldn't be too worried about Verdasco's position.

Thanks Stealth for explaining that for me. Great work as always.

Wooffie wrote:Thanks Stealth for explaining that for me. Great work as always.

No problem!

One thing I have noticed though is that Verdasco is playing Nice this year, and he drops 150 from last year there. It won't affect his Roland Garros seeding, but he may slip down an extra place or two if he doesn't defend that next week.

Blimey ... I didn't think he'd show his [lovely] face there again after last year.

Florian Mayer hit a new career high last week, and the week before that, and he'll do it again this week! He's a round away from a top 20 debut, thoroughly deserved after an absolute belter of a clay court season this year. He's got little to defend at Roland Garros and will likely storm into the Top 20 if he keeps this up.

Soderling and Berdych through to the quarters. They must be breathing a sigh of relief that David Ferrer isn't gaining anything here, because he has very little to lose at the French Open, whilst Berdych and Soderling are losing a lot of points. Soderling has actually made himself safe from an immediate fall in ranking despite losing 1,200 points; a very impressive achievement that goes to show the gulf between the Top 5 and the rest.

Tsonga could potentially find himself outside the Top 30 if he falls early at Roland Garros! Only 180 points to defend, but it's just so tight from 20-25th that anyone who loses early immediately drops 5 places, and the players below that have virtually nothing to defend.

Murray makes the semi's, and gets his total over 6000 points again in the process. Should he make the final, Federer would be theoretically catchable at Roland Garros, though it would take some strange results (Federer loses before Round 3, Murray wins sort of result) for it to happen. Gives him a chance to close the gap between them so he gets a real chance at overhauling him later in the year, when Federer has most of his points to defend. (And so does Murray to be honest, but just not as many )

Nadal still No.1 after Rome and RG

Nadal has successfully held off Djokovic for this tournament in making the semi finals.

Richard Gasquet is the man Nadal will face, and he's gone above Wawrinka and Troicki after making the semis.

Hi Simple_Analyst........welcome to the forum : )

Solerina

Federer will be again the sole single handed BH player in the top 10 next week.

It's almost a miracle nowadays to have a SHBH player in the top 10. However I hope Gasquet joins him soon cause his BH is also close to be a miracle.

Djokovic hits the 11,000 mark with his semi-final appearance in Rome. He's banging that door pretty hard now....

Nadal and Djokovic are going to hate the start of next season, that's for sure.

Rafa is used to the pressure come clay and grass season, question is ... is Djokovic?

Wooffie wrote:Rafa is used to the pressure come clay and grass season, question is ... is Djokovic?

Yeah, but this will be different next year, they've literally got to defend finals and wins straight from February to June! No-one has ever done that before, let alone 2 people manage such a record!

And there it is, Djokovic the champ again.

As far as the battle for number one is concerned, two scenarios in particular are of interest:

1. If Nadal does not win Roland Garros, Djokovic is world number 1.
2. If Djokovic makes the final at Roland Garros, he is world number 1 guaranteed, regardless of Nadal's progress.

Thus the schedule change confusion ends; back to normal points dropping and gaining :hooray:. To celebrate, the Roland Garros PointsThingy will have the entire Top 20 as opposed to the Top 16 players being tracked a discussion based on whether or not the new balls favour Sergei Stakhovsky. The World Team Championship and Nice ATP250's are next week, and whilst there's some scope for movement, I won't be doing a PointsThingy next week, so i'll summarise:

- David Ferrer can reclaim 6th from Tomas Berdych if he wins in Nice. Berdych can deny him by making roughly the semis.
- Fernando Verdasco will drop out of the Top 20 if he loses in the first round at Nice. He has to make the final to retain 17th place.
- Richard Gasquet will drop back below Stanislas Wawrinka if he doesn't defend his title in Nice. He will slip back below Troicki if he doesn't make the semis or if Troicki gets Serbia to the final in the World Team Champs.

That's roughly it for next week's interesting ranking news.

Slam wise, it is very important that Federer gets back to number 2. His chances of winning slams, especially the USO would double if he were to have Nadal and Djoko tough it out in semis.

Winning Wimbledon could put him back to number 2...but then lots to defend in Cincy and montreal.

Tenez being 1 or 2 makes it a lot easier to get through the draw then being 3. Since as you have pointed out in most slams he will have to play (not assuming any upsets) Nadal and Djoko in the semi and the final to win. That may be a bridge too far for Roger.