Aviva Premiership - Round 1 Preview

Well it is here again, the new season and the Round 1 preview.

Friday 6th September 2013

Newcastle v Bath 19:45
After storming through most of the season, Newcastle seemed to struggle to impose themselves in the play-offs and almost limped into the Premiership. The big name signing for 2013/14 would seem to be Mike blair - and after seeing Fury in the play-offs, Falcons are in need of a quality 9. Te departed Jimmy Gopperth got a lot of stick from fans but his points and his leadership will be missed. Can Phil Godman do that?
Perennial under-performers Bath have been the most visible club in the off-season, both for the signings and the pub fuelled bust-ups. Gary Gold moves "upstairs" to the DoR job with Mike Ford assuming head coach duties. Will that actually change anything? Probably not.
With all their signings, Bath have to be securing a top 6 spot as a minimum and should really be aiming for Top 4 - while finishing 11th would be a success for Falcons this season. Newcastle will be looking to host as many Friday night fixtures as they can, and will need to win a good proportion of those. Later in the season the traditional NE weather may come to their aid, but this week promises to stay fair.
If Bath can overcome both the long journey and the opening ferocity we should expect from Newcastle, they should have far too much class. Big ifs though.

Newcastle Team:
15 Alex Tait, 14 Noah Cato, 13 Danny Barnes, 12 Jamie Helleur, 11 Tom Catterick, 10 Phil Godman, 9 Mike Blair, 1 Franck Montanella, 2 Matt Thompson, 3 Kieran Brookes, 4 Carlo del Fava, 5 Scott MacLeod, 6 Dom Barrow, 7 Andy Saull, 8 Ally Hogg (c)

Replacements: 16 Rob Vickers, 17 Scott Wilson, 18 Gary Strain, 19 Mark Wilson, 20 Chris York, 21 Warren Fury, 22 Joel Hodgson, 23 Adam Powell


Bath Team:
15 Anthony Watson, 14 Semesa Rokoduguni, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Kyle Eastmond, 11 Matt Banahan, 10 George Ford, 9 Peter Stringer, 1 Paul James, 2 Rob Webber, 3 David Wilson, 4 Stuart Hooper ( c ), 5 Dave Attwood, 6 Matt Garvey, 7 Mat Gilbert, 8. Leroy Houston

Replacements

16. Ross Batty, 17. Nathan Catt, 18. Anthony Perenise, 19. Dominic Day, 20. Alafoti Fa'osiliva, 21. Micky Young, 22. Gavin Henson, 23. Tom Biggs

Saturday 7th September 2013

London Irish v Saracens 14:00
The first leg of the Twickenham double-header starts with London Irish "hosting" last season's table toppers Saracens. In the off-season Irish have lost a large number of very important players and frankly replaced them with much lower quality recruits. The premiership final against Leicester feels so long ago now.
Saracens have signed a couple off massive forwards in Johnston and BillyV. While Johnston may not solve Saracens scrummaging uncertainties, if the younger Vunipola can be integrated into the team he will provide some real front foot ball. In turn this could allow Hodgson or Farrell to really stamp their mark on the game and the season and get the Sarries backs firing. Meanwhile back to the front row and Jamie George should get a chance to stake a claim for a place in the side long term.
I suspect we may well see a match similar to last season - stodgy and tentative in the first half, but with Sarries taking Irish apart in the second.


Gloucester v Sale 15:00
It seems strange to think that Gloucester appear a little lightweight in the tight five. The plethora of riches available to them in the back row and then in the backs suggests that should that tight five be able to punch above their weight we could see real fireworks this season. While a young skipper, Tom Savage looks a real leader and will be driving his men forward. With the signing of Tavis Knoyle (a favourite of Nigel Davies) and the big money signing of Jimmy Cowan last season, I do worry about how much gametime the ever improving Dan Robson will get.
Sale Sharks - what can you say. Season before last Steve Diamond manged to turn them into a team that was so much more than the sum of it's parts. Last season they were at times dreadfull. Big signings Gray and Cipriani were absolute flops and young players like Miller, Cliff and Amesbury just did not kick on.
Gloucester surely have to win this?



Northampton v Exeter 15:00
While Exeter continue to sign lesser known players and create a team ethos, Saints have done the real big name transfers in the summer. Even if they do not stay fit and firing the whole season, the presence of Corbisiero and North in the play-offs (shoudl Saints make them) would give them a sprinkling of stardust they have previously lacked. Kahn Fotuali'i could be the key signing though. While he started slowly at Ospreys (due in large part to having played for two years without a break) the fans at the Liberty will have been sorry to see him go. He is a class act - though there seem to be some suggestions he may play at 10!
While Northampton have had some nerve-tingling matches with Exeter they should win this one with a little breathing space.



London Wasps v Harlequins 16:30
The London double-header culminates with Harlequins as the "away" team. Again a repeat of last seasons fixture, fans will hope to see another cracker. For 60 minutes Wasps were sublime until their conditioning failed. Wasps appear to have made some very shrewd signings and will look to run the ball at every opportunity. they will keep the tempo high - but need better fitness levels than last season.
After finishing last season with a whimper, Quins will be desperate to show they are not a flash in the pan. The performances of Ben Botica could be key as Nick Evans is showing his age and at times was quite frail last season. Enhanced contracts for the home-grown players has limited the funds available for new signings. The loss of Johnston and Kohn certainly reduces the bulk in the Quins pack.




Sunday 8th September 2013

Leicester v Worcester 14:00
Tigers do not always start the season especially well, but against a Worcester team that has lost a number of key players and replaced them in the main with journeymen, they should be seeking a fairly comfortable win.
Leicester will  not look to overplay their Lions players, but their is strength in depth in those positions. Worries about Floods fitness are countered by the good form shown by Lamb and Williams in pre-season. Full back cover is a little light on the ground with Matty Tait not appearing yet following more surgery in the summer.

  , but probs right

Newcastle will be looking to host as many Friday night fixtures as they can

Most of the home games are on a Sunday this year LT...which has actually proved an issue as many people have other committments on a Sunday. Be interesting to see how it effects our support.

As for the game...i fully expect a defeat to Bath - a team i think could be very strong this season. As long as we give a good performance and are very physical to give us hope that we can survive the season, then i will be happy.

LondonTiger wrote:
Saturday 7th September 2013

London Irish v Saracens 14:00
The first leg of the Twickenham double-header starts with London Irish "hosting" last season's table toppers Saracens. In the off-season Irish have lost a large number of very important players and frankly replaced them with much lower quality recruits. The premiership final against Leicester feels so long ago now.
Saracens have signed a couple off massive forwards in Johnston and BillyV. While Johnston may not solve Saracens scrummaging uncertainties, if the younger Vunipola can be integrated into the team he will provide some real front foot ball. In turn this could allow Hodgson or Farrell to really stamp their mark on the game and the season and get the Sarries backs firing. Meanwhile back to the front row and Jamie George should get a chance to stake a claim for a place in the side long term.
I suspect we may well see a match similar to last season - stodgy and tentative in the first half, but with Sarries taking Irish apart in the second.

Whilst we have certainly lost a lot of players, I'm not sure that a huge number of them could be classed as very important.

Alex Corbisiero - played about 4 AP games in 2 years, so cannot be considered an important cog, however good he is.
Jonathan Joseph - was a passenger last season and appeared to have some attitude issues.
Jamie Gibson - couldn't get in the starting XV as Brian Smith prefers more physicality in the back row.

Matt Garvey and Max Lahiff are really the only key players that we have lost.  Loosehead is an issue.  Hopefully John Yapp will solve our problems there, but this game probably comes to soon for him.  Garvey we have no like for like replacement for, so it will be interesting to see who plays at 6, as this is where Garvey was doing the business for us last year.

I'll be happy with a losing bonus point this week, as Saracens are a top side.  what we need to do is match them in the collisions and at the set piece, and who knows what can happen, as we certainly have the backs to cause problems for any team, regardless of how good they may be defensively.

LT, it seems an age since these previews last appeared. As always, great work  

I am pretty much in agreement with all the results you have said, although I do feel Newcastle will nick it against Bath. KP is such a difficult place to play and whilst the rest of the country may be bathed in sunlight it will no doubt be in the midst of a blizzard.

I will predict a Saints win, but Exeter have the pack to nullify Saints, so you never know they may just get the win...

On the Glaws front we let ourselves down with results against the lower placed teams. We resoundly beat Sale at home and then got thumped away. Whilst I truly hope we solve that away problem, we surely will be too much for Sale at home. You have to question our aspirations for a top 4 finish if we don't.

Pete,

some of them may not have played important roles last season - but the quality of Corbs, Lahiff, Garvey, Gibson, Shingler, Joseph, Watson etc is someway ahead of those coming in. Yapp may prove me wrong, but he looks past it, while the likes of Stevens and Lewington have promise - but are probably very good championship players rather than premiership ones.

Barring Shingler the names I mentioned leaving were all developed by LI I think? Having so many home grown players poached cannot feel good.

Having so many home grown players poached cannot feel good..

Taken over our former mantle...

LT

I agree with some of what you say, it certainly does not feel good losing home grown talent, particularly to other AP clubs.  With regards the quality of the incoming and outgoing players, yes you can argue that those going out are of better quality, but only if they are playing to their potential on a regular basis.  Using Joseph as an example, we probably saw him at about 60% when he played last season.  Eamonn Sheridan may be less talented, but I would rather have him in there giving 100% for the team.

The culture within the club didn't seem great last season, with one or two appearing to be bad apples for various reasons.  It seems a lot better now. and hopefully this will help us when things get tough, as they undoubtedly will with such a small squad.

Thanks LT. Interesting reading.

As a Wuss supporter, I hope to catch Tigers cold, but expect a bit of a hiding. I think it will be another long old season for us.

Each year a team expected to do well crashes, and a team expected to struggle does pretty well. I think Gloucester may struggle more than folk on here think. I think they have a massive hole in their pack the size of Jim Hamilton. Will their stellar back-row and backs get enough dominance from the front five to see them sparkle? I'm not so sure.

This year my bolter to do well will be ................................. Sale. Sale do well when Steve Diamond coaches, and poorly when he gets someone else in to do it for him.

I think Newcastle will have enough teams struggle with the long journey and the rain to stay safe. The drop will be between my team (Wuss) and LI.

My predictions for this round are...

Falcons to win, but Bath get a losing bonus point.
Gloucester to win with a try bonus point, Sale get nothing.
Saints to win with a try bonus point, Chiefs possibly will get within 7 to go home with a point.
Wasps to win a high scorer this time around, with a bonus point, with Quins getting a try and a losing bonus point.
Tigers to beat Worcester convincingly with a try bonus point and nothing for the away side.

Hey people  

We do get the odd bit of sunshine up here you know...its not THAT bad... 

But thanks for picking us to win all the same...cant see it like.

I'm glad you've started these again LT, good work!

Interesting that so many people are writing off London Irish, while there have been a lot of departures, as Ozzy says above, many of those leaving didn't exactly seem to be prepared to bleed for the badge.
I think with a more unified squad, they could take a few people by surprise and certainly aren't the relegation certainties some would make out. Of course having said that, a few injuries in the wrong positions and they could be trouble.

Both Sale and Wuss could arguably he in worse positions that Irish:
I've seen nothing from Dean Ryan to suggest he will any more successful at Wuss than Richard Hill, he was at his most successful with a Glaws team that had a total salary of about double at the time and clearly he won't be afforded that luxury at Wuss.
In the same way, I don't see Steve Diamond as capable of doing any coaching beyond merely shouting louder at his players when things go wrong, I think it will be another tough season for them.

My predictions for the first week:
-Bath close win, Newcastle LBP
-Glaws win with try bonus point, Sale nothing
- Saints win, Exe LBP
- Wasps win, Quins LBP
- Sarries win, Irish LBP
- Leicester win with try bonus, Wuss nothing

tooboredtowork wrote:Thanks LT. Interesting reading.

As a Wuss supporter, I hope to catch Tigers cold, but expect a bit of a hiding. I think it will be another long old season for us.

Each year a team expected to do well crashes, and a team expected to struggle does pretty well. I think Gloucester may struggle more than folk on here think. I think they have a massive hole in their pack the size of Jim Hamilton. Will their stellar back-row and backs get enough dominance from the front five to see them sparkle? I'm not so sure.

This year my bolter to do well will be ................................. Sale. Sale do well when Steve Diamond coaches, and poorly when he gets someone else in to do it for him.

I think Newcastle will have enough teams struggle with the long journey and the rain to stay safe. The drop will be between my team (Wuss) and LI.

I do rate Jim and I would have far preferred he stayed, however, we are use to being without him. In the 3 years he was with us he only played in 50% of the Jeff games available. I'm sure there will be the odd game where his experience would have helped us win a game, but in general we can cope without him. Coupled with the way Elliott Stooke is playing I can see him stepping into our enforcer role perhaps this year, but I'm sure next year.

I think Quins may win their game. Wasps have very good strike weapons but I can't see us playing Lowe on the wing against them again and hopefully we've learnt from last season about giving them space.

Just a shame that OLH and Chisholm won't be involved.

The coaching set up at Bath, with the squad now at their disposal, have no excuses this season, although a little concerned where the direction for the backs is going to come from. Set piece, breakdown and defence will be fine but unsure about the attacking dimension. Then again Gatland has done ok without one, so perhaps that will be the approach. We certainly have the forwards to batter anyone and no-one got past Banahan at twelve last season either.

Bath, whether good, bad or indifferent are always interesting to watch or maybe I have had a ST for too many years......

yappysnap wrote:I think Quins may win their game. Wasps have very good strike weapons but I can't see us playing Lowe on the wing against them again and hopefully we've learnt from last season about giving them space.

Just a shame that OLH and Chisholm won't be involved.

Might see Mr Sackey against his old team mates?

Probably not Trev, Monye and Williams will start. Its just after that we start pushing the panic buttons, or if anything happens to Brown...

Although I'm sure Sackey would love the chance to smash either of Wasps new wingers!

Sackey would have to catch them first.

Recwatcher, Banahan at 12 would be the death of any attacking intent the coaches may have tried to instil. The Ford/Eastmond combo at 10/12 for Bath could be pure brilliance if Ford can actually land his kicks.

I was up near Newcastle around this time last year and the weather was really nice. Me and the wife we debating on whether to go back up again this year but she decided she didn't want to do the Great North again this year. Bath will have no excuses from the weather.

Its 24 here today and will be nice i imagine over the weekend (though i havent seen the forecast)

Though ill get the dog sleds and snow shoes out for next week...  

formerly known as Sam wrote:Sackey would have to catch them first.

Recwatcher, Banahan at 12 would be the death of any attacking intent the coaches may have tried to instil. The Ford/Eastmond combo at 10/12 for Bath could be pure brilliance if Ford can actually land his kicks.

I was up near Newcastle around this time last year and the weather was really nice. Me and the wife we debating on whether to go back up again this year but she decided she didn't want to do the Great North again this year. Bath will have no excuses from the weather.

10. Ford  12. Eastmond  13. Joseph certainly looks a serious attacking threat, but whichever way you want to paint it they can definitely be got at defensively.  Add in 11. Watson 14. Biggs 15. Abendanon and I would expect to see some real high scoring games involving Bath.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Its 24 here today and will be nice i imagine over the weekend (though i havent seen the forecast)

Though ill get the dog sleds and snow shoes out for next week...  

Becoming very unsettled with some heavy rain at times and strong northeasterly winds developing later Friday ... did the Falcons order that specially?

I've copied the following off the London Irish thread as they are pertinent to this weeks game and season ahead and I would be interesting in hearing other peoples views on it...
 

Irish Londoner wrote:I think we have to write off the game V Saracens, a LBP being the best we can expect to get out of that and concentrate on picking up wins on the other bottom half sides, with anything picked up V the top six a bonus - to a certain extent if we beat Sale and Newcastle home and away that may be enough to guarantee safety, assuming they struggle in the same way LI are likely to.

Ozzy3213 wrote:I couldn't disagree with that more IL.  Winning and losing are habits, and to simply write of the game vs. Saracens is not the sort of culture we need within the squad.  We need to go out and throw the kitchen sink at them this week.  We need to re-establish our identity and how we want to play.

Tom Homer being injured could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, as we have now got to look for tries rather than get into a battle off the tee.  We need to go out and have a go at them and set ourselves up for the season ahead.  We have Worcester away the following week, and whatever the result on Saturday, we need to go there knowing that we gave it everything, and in a positive frame of mind.

I do not believe in writing any match off, especially at the start of the season.

Sarries, quite rightly, are heavy favourites. However writingthe match off and risking a thumping can have a massive negative impact for the rest of the season.

LondonTiger wrote:I do not believe in writing any match off, especially at the start of the season.

Sarries, quite rightly, are heavy favourites. However writingthe match off and risking a thumping can have a massive negative impact for the rest of the season.

Absolutely. I can see sense towards the end of the season for a team battling relegation to target certain games and make sure players are fit for those matches; but a curtain raising game should never be written off.

Nice preview Londontiger.

I would say the teams most likely to pull off an upset in my opinion are Wasps and Newcastle.

Bathman in London, London Irish are seen as relegation favourites because they don't seem to have a strong enough pack in my opinion. They still have good backs but the foundation is built in the pack.

After London Welsh, London Irish conceded the most points last season. Defensively they conceded 57 tries.

I agree London Irish should look to win every game they play.If London Irish can start well they could cause Sarries problems.

As a Bath fan I think our squad has improved immensely over the summer,for once the future looks bright but I would be happier if we were playing Leicester on the opening weekend rather than Newcastle away on a Friday night.

Newcastle to scrape a scruffy win by 2pts


As for the other games

London Irish v Saracens - Sarries more than 15pts
Gloucester v Sale  - Glaws by 5pts
Northampton v Exeter - Saints 3pts
London Wasps v Harlequins - Quins 12 pts
Leicester v Worcester - Tigers 18 pts

Irish to go down  

Whilst I understand that argument about our pack, I do find a few things strange in how people, both fans and media alike, decide on who are favourites for what.

We effectively have lost 2 starting forwards, Lahiff and Garvey. Lahiff is replaced by Yapp, who is more experienced and potentially a better player. Garvey is a loss, but we have brought in Blair Cowan from Worcester, who most Warriors fans were crying into their beers over him going, such is the high esteem they hold him in. We have also added Jamie Hagan to back up/compete with Aulika for the 3 jersey, so are arguably better off in the pack than we were last year, albeit we have a depth issue at lock and a ? at loosehead.

We finished above Worcester and Sale last year, and I question if either have substantially improved their packs for this campaign. Falcons will be an unknown quantity to an extent, with new faces and not having been in the AP last year. I fully accept that in all likelihood we will be in the scrap at the bottom again this year, but I cannot see how, in light what the other candidates have done over the summer, we are favourites for the drop having finished above them last time out.

I'm a bit worried about the first game from a Newcastle point of view. Bath have put together a big old bruising pack in the close season. We have developed a game based forward attrition and goal kicking. If Bath get too much dominance up front, we could be in trouble.

Bath by less that 7
Sarries by more than 7
Gloucester by more than 7
Northampton by more than 7
Harlequins by more than 7
Tigers by more than 7

Just my opinion!

Scrumpy, I appreciate that mate, and I'm not knocking anyones opinons, just keen to see what they are being based on.

Cumbrian

Thats my concern. We're a "one trick pony" at the moment. A big pack and kicking our points.
Baths pack look huge AND skilled...if we cant match them...i fear we have no plan B yet. We could be in trouble.
Im usually an optimisitic person but im definately a realistic person..i expect a loss this weekend...cant see anything other.

Bath by less than 7
Sarries by more than 7, TBP
Gloucester by less than 7
Saints by less than 7
Quins by less than 7
Tigers by more than 7

Ozzy3213 wrote:Scrumpy, I appreciate that mate, and I'm not knocking anyones opinons, just keen to see what they are being based on.

I just can't see a team coached by Dean Richards or Dean Ryan going down, I also fear that Irish are treading water at the moment.

Ozzy3213 wrote:Scrumpy, I appreciate that mate, and I'm not knocking anyones opinons, just keen to see what they are being based on.

London Irish - a team in decline, have they reached the bottom yet? 2009 Premiership finalists (66pts), 2010 - 6th 52pts, 2011 - 6th 54 pts, 2012 - 7th 46 pts, 2013 9th 35 pts.
For me every year they seem to have lost better players than those coming in, so that decline is not a surprise. When I look at what I perceive the quality of the LI squad to be, it looks weak and so I make them one of the favourites for relegation.


Along with

Newcastle - I look at the squad, and even with some of the recruits, I just cannot see ho wthey will score enough points to ever feel comfortable. Only the presence of Dean Richards gives me any confidence they may survive.

Worcester - perennial strugglers, they have lost their best players and appointed Dean Ryan as coach.



why not Sale? Gut feel that the second half of last season was more reflective of their abilities than the first half.

Ozzy3213 wrote:Whilst I understand that argument about our pack, I do find a few things strange in how people, both fans and media alike, decide on who are favourites for what.

We effectively have lost 2 starting forwards, Lahiff and Garvey. Lahiff is replaced by Yapp, who is more experienced and potentially a better player. Garvey is a loss, but we have brought in Blair Cowan from Worcester, who most Warriors fans were crying into their beers over him going, such is the high esteem they hold him in. We have also added Jamie Hagan to back up/compete with Aulika for the 3 jersey, so are arguably better off in the pack than we were last year, albeit we have a depth issue at lock and a ? at loosehead.

We finished above Worcester and Sale last year, and I question if either have substantially improved their packs for this campaign. Falcons will be an unknown quantity to an extent, with new faces and not having been in the AP last year. I fully accept that in all likelihood we will be in the scrap at the bottom again this year, but I cannot see how, in light what the other candidates have done over the summer, we are favourites for the drop having finished above them last time out.

You have only lost two starting forwards but the 1st choice pack isn't really that strong looking to begin with.

In regards to Sale the latter end of last season gave them a glimmer of hope that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The way they took apart Gloucester was impressive.

I liked Worcester's character last season. They were very battling. 8 losing bonus points shows this too. Dean Ryan isn't a great coach but he's good enough to win a relegation scrap in my opinion.

Newcastle have Dean Richards. He's a very smart operator. He's made quite a few canny signings. If he can make those with potential click then they could surprise.

They also have a forwards orientated game.

Forwards are more important in winning matches.

Also there's not much strength in depth in London Irish either.

i think we need to pick up some points in september and october whilst the weather, touch wood, is reasonable and dry, and then again next april/may. we have a quality backline that can score tries. i fear for us in the wet weather. we lack a bit of grunt.

either way i cant wait for saturday and getting to twickenham to get steaming and watch us batter saracens.....  

Might be a better idea to run round em, rather than through them.

stnick88 you talk about scoring tries. Perhaps if you do that more often you'll stay up.

Like the Gloucester backline the London Irish backline doesn't live up to the hype it's given.

Will they prove me wrong this season?

only time will tell. if our backline had the platform that you or tigers forwards gave their backs, we could score for fun. unfortunately we rarely get any kind of platform like that to play off hence the lack of tries last season.

I am afraid I do worry about Irish's stickability this season. A smallish squad, a weakened pack and, if we're honest, a paucity of other relegation candidates do not a happy season bode.

Worcester have shown over the last few seasons that while they can't break into the HEC places they have been solidly clear of relegation. Sale had a nightmare start to last year, but finished it reasonably well and I can't see them repeating it. Newcastle do not have any star players, but their squad more closely resembles Exeter's promotion season squad than London Welsh's, and in Deano they have a coach who has done this before and knows how to scrap for points.

A good start when the ground is firm could give Irish a buffer, but they will need it when the game becomes more forward dominated in the new year weather.

beshocked wrote:

In regards to Sale the latter end of last season gave them a glimmer of hope that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The way they took apart Gloucester was impressive.

I liked Worcester's character last season. They were very battling. 8 losing bonus points shows this too. Dean Ryan isn't a great coach but he's good enough to win a relegation scrap in my opinion.

I wouldn't read too much into Sale's performance as Glaws were simply pathetic - to gift 14 points to charge downs is not acceptable. That pack has changed enormously since then with the likes of Dickinson, Vernon and Gray departing. The like of Mills will give them a very honest, hard working edge, but they won't set the world alight. Enough to avoid relation though.

I do feel Wuss are in very real danger of going down. The loss of Mullan, Kvesic, Cowan, Goode and Carlisle cannot be down played. Not only has Dean Ryan come in, but a whole new coaching set up. You get the sense they would be prepared to go down in order to regroup for a more stable future with Uncle Cecil continuing to bank roll them. Would Irish get the same support? A player who knows his financial security is on the line may give that little bit more.

LI are looking fragile. Then again if they can compete at the set piece (win their own ball and not give the opposition a walkover on theirs), defend cohesively with discipline and slot their kicks things might go their way. Force a team like Sarries to chase a game and It's happy days for LI, once a game opens up they should have the sort of players to exploit that. Wasps had a similar tactic last season.

Poorfour wrote:I am afraid I do worry about Irish's stickability this season. A smallish squad, a weakened pack and, if we're honest, a paucity of other relegation candidates do not a happy season bode.

Worcester have shown over the last few seasons that while they can't break into the HEC places they have been solidly clear of relegation. Sale had a nightmare start to last year, but finished it reasonably well and I can't see them repeating it. Newcastle do not have any star players, but their squad more closely resembles Exeter's promotion season squad than London Welsh's, and in Deano they have a coach who has done this before and knows how to scrap for points.

A good start when the ground is firm could give Irish a buffer, but they will need it when the game becomes more forward dominated in the new year weather.

I can kind of see the arguments for Falcons and Sale to a certain extent, even if I don't agree with them.  Peoples perceptions of Worcester in relation to us really interest me though.  Solidly clear of relegation???  Had Welsh not been docked points, they were 1 bonus point win away from the the drop last year.  In fact, post Christmas they were the worst side, having picked up the majority of their wins in their first 12 games.  They have also lost as many, if not more 'key men' than us.  Mullan, Kvesic, Cowan and Goode are not easily replaced.  Also in Dean Ryan they have a coach who failed to win the title with a squad that they were paying about twice the salary cap at Gloucester, and who has not coached full time for a number of years.

Worcester have never finished above us, and are definitely weaker than they were last season.

Win, lose or draw I genuinely cannot wait for Saturday and for the season to start.  Supporting Irish is always a rollercoaster ride and I am sure this season will be no different.  Bring it on, I love it.    

Ozzy - fair points. I'd not appreciated how many players Wuss had lost. But I think you're harsh on Ryan, who delivered consistent league performances but never cracked the playoffs. And 5 points in the AP is quite a lot. In most seasons there will be several teams within a 5 point window somewhere in the table.

Dean Ryan is occupying a true DoR role, so whilst he will clearly oversee everything, I'd expect the team direction to be driven by Head Coach Carl Hogg and the rest of the coaches. I do feel they have a good set up there for the future, but this season may be too soon for them.

In defence of Dean Ryan in relation to Ozzy's point. He clearly took Glaws over the salary cap and he did fail to win anything with us, although topping the league twice is no mean feat; but in fairness to him its not like other sides weren't also over the cap at that time too. Nevertheless, by the end DR had clearly lost the players and ironically his lowest point came against Worcester in probably the most dire performance I have ever seen from Glaws, which resulted in his departure. Although as supporters found out a few years later, his wife was terminally ill during that time so it is no wonder that the pressure got to him. Some things are far more important.

Worcester have lost some good players but they've signed some as well. A trio of Argentinean internationals have come in with Mieres at 10 and Creevy at 2 bound to be big names with Mullan replaced by an Argie international. Brooker from Quins adds another quality hooker. Kvesic is a good 7 but Abbott is still there and Betty is as well giving the flanks a decent look with angry man Best on the bench. Paul Warwick is a classy option ať 15 if a year or two past his best.

Given that Worcester have finally decided to sign experience rather than ask the coach to develop the youngsters I think Hill will be gutted not to get a go with the squad he helped amass. Ryan certainly has no excuses for failure. Worcester have previously survived on less.

I guess my point with Ryan is that a lot of people seem to be seeing him as a key factor in Worcester staying up and be extension us going down, when in fact he is probably a bit of an unknown quantity at this stage. He is clearly very knowledgeable, but he will be working here with players who are possibly not of the quality that he's been used to in the past, and as far as I can remember he's never managed in a relegation dogfight before, which I would say is a different kettle of fish to the other end of the table.

Loving the debate here lads, can't wait for the season to begin and for us all to get a real idea of where all the teams are. Massively interested to see what effect the new scrum directives have.

I have to say I can't see the point in replacing Hill with Ryan personally. Hill had down years of good work on a small budget bringing through a number of quality academy products.

If they were to replace Hill I think they should have aimed for a more innovative coach that was more likely to take them up to the next level of competitiveness.

Maybe they just thought Hill had taken them as far as possible? And Ryan is a very good PR stunt as well as hopefully a good coach.

Cant call who'll be going down yet its fat too close between a few teams. Sale could just as easily be in the mix as well, yes they had a little resurgence bit there's nothing to say that'll continue.

Apparently it'll be 27c at the Big Stoop this weekend so no excuses not to run the ball around. Does mean ill have to pace myself carefully though if I want to make it through two games....