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OWGR Week 36 Week of Tour Championship

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raycastleunited
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Post by GPB Sun 07 Sep 2014, 11:59 pm

First topic message reminder :

This is what tomorrow rankings should look like and all the main tour winners for the week.  Those players with an asterisk are not yet qualified for the Masters.

1 Rory McIlroy 11.37
2 Adam Scott 9.24
3 Sergio Garcia 7.88
4 Henrik Stenson 7.82
5 Justin Rose 7.28
6 Bubba Watson 7.24
7 Jim Furyk 7.22
8 Jason Day 6.79
9 Matt Kuchar 6.61
10 Phil Mickelson 5.88
11 Rickie Fowler 5.81
12 Martin Kaymer 5.37
13 Jordan Spieth 5.22
14 Tiger Woods 5.13
15 Zach Johnson 4.88
16 Dustin Johnson 4.81
17 Graeme McDowell 4.78
18 Jimmy Walker 4.37
19 Hideki Matsuyama 4.35
20 Hunter Mahan 4.16
21 Charl Schwartzel 4.10
22 Victor Dubuisson 4.08 *
23 Billy Horschel 4.07
24 Chris Kirk 3.92
25 Steve Stricker 3.87 *
26 Keegan Bradley 3.85
27 Jamie Donaldson 3.80 *
28 Patrick Reed 3.73
29 Thomas Bjorn 3.68
30 Jason Dufner 3.58
31 Bill Haas 3.56
32 Luke Donald 3.53 *
33 Webb Simpson 3.44
34 Stephen Gallacher 3.37*
35 Miguel A Jimenez 3.35
36 Kevin Na 3.30
37 Ian Poulter 3.26 *
38 Brandt Snedeker 3.17 *
39 Graham Delaet 3.14 *
40 Lee Westwood 3.04
41 Thongchai Jaidee 3.01 *
42 Ryan Moore 2.99 *
43 Marc Leishman 2.97 *
44 Ryan Palmer 2.89
45 Kevin Streelman 2.80 *
46 Brendon Todd 2.80
47 Francesco Molinari 2.71 *
48 Ernie Els 2.68
49 Gary Woodland 2.66
50 John Senden 2.64
============== Masters Bubble Point 12/31/2014
51 Joost Luiten 2.62 *
52 Mikko Ilonen 2.59 *
53 Russell Henley 2.55
54 Kevin Stadler 2.54 *
55 Jonas Blixt 2.47
56 Angel  Cabrera 2.45
57 Harris English 2.40 *
58 Matt Every 2.39 *
59 Matt Jones 2.39 *
60 J.B. Holmes 2.34 *
61 Louis Oosthuizen 2.30
62 Shane Lowry 2.20 *
63 Koumei Oda 2.12 *
64 Bernd Wiesberger 2.08 *
65 Brian  Harman 2.04
66 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 2.04 *
67 Marc Warren 2.03 *
68 Brooks Koepka 2.01
69 Charley Hoffman 2.01 *
70 Pablo  Larrazabal 1.98 *
71 Freddie Jacobson 1.95 *
72 Cameron Tringale 1.94
73 Erik Compton 1.90
74 Geoff  Ogilvy 1.88
75 Tim Clark 1.82
76 Chris Stroud 1.81 *
77 K.J. Choi 1.79 *
78 George McNeill 1.78 *
79 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.77 *
80 Ryo Ishikawa 1.75 *
81 Richard Sterne 1.74 *
82 Nick Watney 1.73 *
83 Ben Martin 1.73 *
84 George Coetzee 1.72 *
85 Matteo Manassero 1.72 *
86 Kevin  Chappell 1.72 *
87 Chesson Hadley 1.71 *
88 Paul Casey 1.68 *
89 Tommy Fleetwood 1.65 *
90 Danny Willett 1.63 *
91 Noh Seung-yul 1.61 *
92 Charles Howell-III 1.60 *
93 Brendon de Jonge 1.59 *
94 Fabrizio Zanotti 1.59 *
95 Kim Hyung-sung 1.59 *
96 Daniel Summerhays 1.59 *
97 Russell Knox 1.55 *
98 Anirban Lahiri 1.54 *
99 Ben Crane 1.51
100 Hennie Otto 1.51 *
==========
101 Morgan Hoffmann 1.51
102 Boo Weekley 1.49 *
103 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.49 *

~126  Hiroshi Iwata 1.27 * Winner in Japan
~152  David Lipsky 1.15 * Winner in Switzerland
~197  Adam Hadwin 0.92 * Winner on Web-com Tour
~200  Benjamin Hebert 0.89 * Winner on Challenge Tour
~750  Mark Silvers 0.15 * Winner on Canadian Tour


I think I got all the Masters qualifiers, either though a former champ, or a win on Tour since the Masters, or a Top 4 finish in the USOpen, Open Champ, or PGA or a top 12 finish in the 2014 Masters or a place in the the Tour Championship (Hello Henley, Tringale, Ogilvy, and Hoffmann)

Doobie, Stricker, and Donaldson have probably accumulated enough OWGR points to be in the top 50 by year end, but they are not yet qualified.  Poulter and Donald have some work to do!  Westwood is in via T7 at the Masters.


Last edited by GPB on Mon 08 Sep 2014, 12:33 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by GPB Mon 22 Sep 2014, 8:31 pm

You asked for World Class top 10 players that have a weight issue.  Now that I named them you want to deflect the issue.


How many flat-bellies are there on the fringes of being world class?  How about Charles Howell III?  Thorbjorn Oleson?  Chris Wood? 


Shane Lowry is on the verge of being a Top 50 golfer in the OWGR which will get him into all the Majors and WGC events





super_realist wrote:Nicklaus played at a time when virtually no one was in shape.


And how does this make a difference?  His stroke average with 1960 and 1970 vintage equipment is comparable with today stroke average.

With thin skin balata golf balls.
With irons that looked like butter knives
With persimmon woods

With out instantaneous swing video
Without "Trac-Man" to optimize launch angles spin rates
Without computer optimization of putting strokes.

With primitive agronomy that meant greens were grainier and less consistent.

yes courses are longer now...but the ball and drivers more than mitigate that.

Yes Greens are quicker now

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Post by pedro Mon 22 Sep 2014, 8:42 pm

Monty was never a sylphide either.

But in fairness it does look like Shane has shed some lard lately. He also did surprisingly well on a hilly course like Celtic Manor.

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Post by skiddy Mon 22 Sep 2014, 10:48 pm

http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/golf/shane-lowry-my-performances-in-the-majors-have-been-very-satisfying-1.1902853
section about his fitness

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Post by pedro Mon 22 Sep 2014, 11:10 pm

skiddy wrote:http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/golf/shane-lowry-my-performances-in-the-majors-have-been-very-satisfying-1.1902853
section about his fitness
Great quote:
" I am not saying I am a fitness freak..."
-Shane Lowry

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Post by super_realist Tue 23 Sep 2014, 6:51 am

pedro wrote:Monty was never a sylphide either.

But in fairness it does look like Shane has shed some lard lately. He also did surprisingly well on a hilly course like Celtic Manor.

Celtic Manor isn't a hilly course at all Pedro. It's got about 3-4 holes that have some incline, the rest is almost completely flat.

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Post by pedro Tue 23 Sep 2014, 9:41 am

super_realist wrote:
pedro wrote:Monty was never a sylphide either.

But in fairness it does look like Shane has shed some lard lately. He also did surprisingly well on a hilly course like Celtic Manor.

Celtic Manor isn't a hilly course at all Pedro. It's got about 3-4 holes that have some incline, the rest is almost completely flat.
I base it on my fond mememories of the RC in 2010. But it came to mind that the course they played back then was actually a mix of holes from two different courses, i.e. somewhat different from the 18 holes they played this week?

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Post by super_realist Tue 23 Sep 2014, 9:54 am

Nah, the course was as it is now, hence the name the "2010 course". The other courses at Celtic Manor (Roman Road and Montgomerie) are about a mile over the hill and are quite hilly. It wouldn't be practical to play those holes.

They used to play the Wales Open on a composite of the two lesser courses prior to 2010, so perhaps you are mixing up the RC with that.

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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 23 Sep 2014, 10:48 am

I think the only incline is up to the 15th green, plus a walk up to the elevated 10th tee and a forty yd stroll to the 18th green. The rest is more or less flat.

Looks like a breezy day forecast for Friday?

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Post by raycastleunited Tue 23 Sep 2014, 1:31 pm

The 2010 course at Celtic Manor is on the floor of a river valley and is pancake flat. It's only the 15th/16th where you climb out of the valley which has any slope, and 18 is a bit undulating.

The 2010 course opened before 2010... I think they have used it for the Wales Open since 2008. Prior to this, the Wales Open used to be held on the Wentwood Hills course at Celtic Manor. This was ripped up to build the ryder cup course - some of the 2010 holes are new and some are from the old Wentwood hills course. The remaining wentwood hills holes were incorporated with the old nine hole par 3 course, got a make over and became the Montgomerie course.

While they were building the 2010 course, they played the Wales Open on the Roman road course (maybe in 2006 and 2007?). This has always been the 2nd course at the resort, is very hilly, and is probably too short for professional golf. I remember record low scores for ET events when it hosted the Wales Open.

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Post by GPB Wed 24 Sep 2014, 5:55 pm

As would be expected, not much will change next week in the OWGR.  

Hideki Matsuyama is NOT defending his Title in the Asia Pacific Diamond Cup on the Japanese Tour.

Koumei Oda and Ryo Ishikawa are playing which I believe are the only top 100 players in action this week in a OWGR rated tournament.  Oda can improve from 62 to 55 with a win and Ryo can improve from 82 to 69.

I think Zach will pass Tiger this week.  The other Johnson will pass Tiger next week.  I think that is the only change from attrition.

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Post by raycastleunited Fri 26 Sep 2014, 3:12 pm

Whatever happened to Nick Watney? Thought he was going to be the next big US player.

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Post by GPB Fri 26 Sep 2014, 5:23 pm

raycastleunited wrote:Whatever happened to Nick Watney? Thought he was going to be the next big US player.

Bad case of Nike-itis.  Just like Thorbjorn Oleson and Kyle Stanley.

Rory is having a relapse this week.

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Post by incontinentia Fri 26 Sep 2014, 5:27 pm

Must be the new driver. Can't imagine anyone replacing their driver if they used it as effectively as McIlroy the last couple of months.
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Post by pedro Fri 26 Sep 2014, 7:48 pm

incontinentia wrote:Must be the new driver. Can't imagine anyone replacing their driver if they used it as effectively as McIlroy the last couple of months.
Yes, completely stupid imo.

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Post by raycastleunited Mon 29 Sep 2014, 8:16 pm

Yet all I recall from the last 3 days is Rory belting the ball 300+ yards down the middle of the fairway with his crazy new driver.

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Post by raycastleunited Mon 29 Sep 2014, 8:27 pm

Does the brand really make that much difference to these guys? Surely they get everything totally customised

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Post by kwinigolfer Wed 01 Oct 2014, 1:10 pm

44 owgr points to the Dunhill winner.

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Post by GPB Wed 01 Oct 2014, 4:07 pm

Kaymer can crack the top 10 with a win at Dunhill
Doobie can can get #13 with a win

Woods will drop at least one more spot to #17 this week.

If Doobie does not win, Dustin Johnson will be #15, one spot higher than he was before he went on his "sabbatical".  7 tournaments off your divisor will do that for you.

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Post by pedro Wed 01 Oct 2014, 11:17 pm

After Fatrick Reed beating Stenson he must surely be top5 now?

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Post by GPB Tue 07 Oct 2014, 9:57 pm

Its looking like Frys will be worth 36 pts to the winner.

Kuchar can get as high as 7.  Hideki, Hunter, Walker can get as high as 15.

Portugal is tentatively worth 26 pts.  Any of the top 4 rated players can nearly guarantee a top 50 ranking at the end of year and a Masters invite with a win (Jaidee, Frankie, Mikko, Lowry)

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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 07 Oct 2014, 10:33 pm

This is the second-to-last week for players to qualify for the HSBC Champions via the Top 50 route.
I'd imagine the Top 43 are safe but Leishman, Todd, Woodland, Molinari and Senden, from those inside the Top 50 must be at risk.

A good opportunity for Shane Lowry to move up at an event he won just two years ago. He needs to be playing the big events to cement his status for the top tournaments.

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Post by GPB Tue 07 Oct 2014, 11:06 pm

Kwini:  Sterne and Tringale are the lowest ranked players that crash the top 50 with a win.  I think Gonzo would just barely fall short.

Fleetwood can get to the top 50 with a win.  Marc Warren cannot.

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Post by GPB Sun 12 Oct 2014, 12:39 am

Some projections for the leaders should they win:

Frys

SM Bae: ~87th
Kuchar:  #7
Hideki: #15
Koepka: #43
Blair: ~87th
Laird: ~75th
Goosen: ~84th
Mahan: 15th

========

Portugal Masters

Levy: ~75th
Colsaerts: ~104th

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Post by GPB Sun 12 Oct 2014, 4:33 pm

IIRC, Levy gets the minimum Euro Tour event (24 pts) for his 36 hole win in Portugal.  

Usually a 36 hole event would be discounted 25% but since that would be below the ET minimum, it only went down to 24 points.

This 24 points tentatively moves Levy to the Top 74(before Frys results are tallied).

In-Hoi Hur wins in Japan, should move up to about ~170.  (from #273).  Low scores in Japan, 28 under was the winning score. Koreans were the top two finishers.

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Post by kwinigolfer Sun 12 Oct 2014, 4:50 pm

Koreans the top two in Korea also, but not KJ. Will Bae make it a Korean hat-trick. Hope not.

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Post by GPB Sun 12 Oct 2014, 5:03 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:Koreans the top two in Korea also, but not KJ. Will Bae make it a Korean hat-trick. Hope not.
 
Yep, Sang-Hyun Park wins the KJ Invitational and he gets into the top 200.

BTW, after his 2nd place finish, Colsaerts moves to about #130 in the rankings.  He was close to falling out of the top 200.

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Post by sirbenson Sun 12 Oct 2014, 6:10 pm

Does Levy's win count as an official win!? Cause I remember Adam Scott had a 36 hole win that wasn't recognised?

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Post by robopz Sun 12 Oct 2014, 7:17 pm

sirbenson wrote:Does Levy's win count as an official win!? Cause I remember Adam Scott had a 36 hole win that wasn't recognised?
Every thing I'm reading is as it's being treated as official... kind of odd really.

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Post by incontinentia Mon 13 Oct 2014, 8:48 am

Big Shane is tantalisingly close to breaking the top 50, standing 53rd at the moment. Fingers Crossed
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Post by JAS Mon 13 Oct 2014, 12:42 pm

robopz wrote:
sirbenson wrote:Does Levy's win count as an official win!? Cause I remember Adam Scott had a 36 hole win that wasn't recognised?
Every thing I'm reading is as it's being treated as official...  kind of odd really.
I'm sure I heard somewhere that it would be half points in RTD.

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Post by super_realist Mon 13 Oct 2014, 12:45 pm

incontinentia wrote:Big Shane is tantalisingly close to breaking the top 50, standing 53rd at the moment. Fingers Crossed
He should step off it then

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Post by Roller_Coaster Mon 13 Oct 2014, 1:43 pm

laughing

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Post by kwinigolfer Mon 13 Oct 2014, 1:58 pm

I wouldn't have thought Shane did "tantalise".

Lucky for Molinari, who somehow rises one place in the owgr after missing the cut (I know, I know) and presumably gets free points for playing this week's MatchPlay. That should just about get him into the HSBC Champions.

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Post by GPB Mon 13 Oct 2014, 2:29 pm

The 4 man PGA Grand Slam is worth 26 points to the winner and 7.8 to the guy comes in last place.

This illustrates how top heavy the OWGR rating system is.

FWIW, I am just kidding, the PGA Grand Slam is not an OWGR sanctioned tournament but I wanted to illustrate that the a 4 man tournament would be worth as much as a 130 player tournament in Portugal last weekend.

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Post by kwinigolfer Mon 13 Oct 2014, 6:28 pm

28 pts for the MatchPlay champ; imagine Vegas might be about 32? Hongkers perhaps the minumum.

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Post by sirbenson Mon 13 Oct 2014, 7:45 pm

Decent field for the matchplay!

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Post by pedro Mon 13 Oct 2014, 9:14 pm

As GPB mentioned Volvo is saying bye bye to the Matchplay and they're also saying bye bye to Volvo Golf Champions, played in S.Africa early January. Will be "interesting" to see the 2015 ET schedule. Headscratch

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Post by BlueCoverman Mon 13 Oct 2014, 10:01 pm

sirbenson wrote:Decent field for the matchplay!

Got tickets for Thursday and Friday so looking forward to that. Just hope the weather cheers up a bit!

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Post by GPB Mon 13 Oct 2014, 10:51 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:28 pts for the MatchPlay champ; imagine Vegas might be about 32? Hongkers perhaps the minumum.


Vegas is looking like another 36 for the PGAT.  Basically the same field as last week.  

Kuchar, Mahan, & Westwood are being replace by Horschel, Simpson, Moore and Na.

Yes, I don't see any way Hong Kong can get above the minimum with only the top 100 players in the field being Jimenez and Els.

BTW, Hong Kong is co-sanctioned with Asian tour.  I think the Minimum will be 19.

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Post by GPB Thu 16 Oct 2014, 3:48 pm

Interesting OWGR phenomena happening on the Japanese Tour.

Most of the usual suspects from the Japanese tour are playing this week which amounts a SoF of 34 (19 World and 15 HomeTour).

In an unsubsidized OWGR, this would be worth 14 points.

Since the Japan Tour is worth a minimum of 16 points, it would get 16 points.

But Adam Scott is playing this week. As the #2 player in the OWGR, he adds 37 World Points and as many as (37*0.75) 28 Home Tour Points. or possibly 65 points to the SoF.

This brings the total SoF to a possible 100 points. which would be rated at a Level 24 in the OWGR.

yes, the addition of the #2 players would increase the OWGR rating from 14 to 16 in an unsubsidized OWGR.

If #1 Rory (instead of Adam) had played, he could have brought the rating to a #26. He could add as many as 79 points to the SOF rating.



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Post by Davie Thu 16 Oct 2014, 8:12 pm

GPB wrote:Interesting OWGR phenomena happening on the Japanese Tour.



Clearly a whole new definition of the word "interesting" Tumbleweed laughing

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Post by GPB Thu 16 Oct 2014, 10:39 pm

I guess I didn't follow through with my thought process

Davie: What's interesting is a hypothetical scenario where a benevolent Japanese Billionaire is interested in boosting the OWGR rankings of Japanese Tour players.

Suppose that hypothetical billionaire paid Rory an enormous sum to play the 15 Japanese Tournaments in 2015, instead of the PGAT or the EuroTour.

IMO, The consequences is that instead of 2 Japanese Tour players (besides Rory) in the top 100 at this time next year, there would be about 10 Japanese Tour players in the top 100 and probably 3 or 4 in the top 50.

Japanese Tour players would be earning 113 OWGR points per week rather than 68 OWGR points per week.


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Post by GPB Fri 17 Oct 2014, 5:26 pm

Scott can distance himself from #3 with a win in Japan but he is well back.

Stenson can barely go ahead of Garcia for the #3 spot should he win in London.

Horschel can pass Mickelson and go to #12.

Doobie, Hideki, and Walker can get to #15 with a win.

Ilonen probably needs to get to Semi's to crack top 50 with Els playing well in Hong Kong.

Pablo can climb into the 50's with a win.

Coetzee can get to into the 60's with a win

Ernie can crack the top 40 with a win in Hong Kong.


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Post by kwinigolfer Fri 17 Oct 2014, 6:22 pm

GPB,
Looks like Lwry's goose is cooked (so he can eat it presumably) for the HSBC, and imagine Molinari is right on the precipice, especially given Erinie & Ilonen. That's a big opportunity lost for both assuming Frannie slips out of the Top 50.

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Post by GPB Fri 17 Oct 2014, 7:51 pm

No way Lowry cracks the top 50 this week.  Best he can possibly be is 53rd.  

Yep, Molinari is in jeopardy with Els probably passing him.  Mikko has to win his quarterfinal match to pass him.  Blixt also has a chance to pass him but he has to win.  2nd is not good enough.

it doesn't look anyone in the Vegas field is threatening to pass him at this point.  Koepka has to finish solo 2nd or better to pass him.

Streelman (Top 10 or better) and Stadler (T3 or better) need a good weekend.

I am going to try to put together some scenarios on what players need to earn to get to Top 50 by year end this weekend.

The bottom is about to start to drop out of Luke and Poulter's ranking in the next month.  Poulter will probably be closer to #50 than #40 by the time he breaks in his new clubs in China.  (I guess he is playing the BMW Masters and HSBC)

Luke may still be ranked #32, he will probably be in the high 30's when he next tees it up at HSBC.

Neither are exempt into the Masters yet.  They got work to do.

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Post by kwinigolfer Fri 17 Oct 2014, 8:16 pm

Cheers GPB,
This is the time of year for "International" players to make a move, but not much chance if they don't play.

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Post by kwinigolfer Sat 18 Oct 2014, 1:15 pm

Ernie Els offering a ray of hope to Molinari etc.
Would have thought McGladrey would suit Luke Donald down to the ground; not especially long and the vibe there not dissimilar to Harbour Town.
Dufner still in next week's field in Perth.

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Post by GPB Sat 18 Oct 2014, 2:47 pm

Looks like Els needs a solo 6th or better to pass Frankie.

It looks like Luke is at least 3 spots in the rankings this . Na has already passed (despite the W/D) him and Luiten getting to semis will be enough to pass him. Webb has to finish in the top 40 to pass Luke. If Gallacher gets a T9 (vs a T13) he will also pass Luke.

Surprised the EuroTour has not published a preliminary field for the BMW Masters in China yet.

Luke's website indicates HSBC will be his next tournament. That will be over a 2 month hiatus .

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Post by GPB Sat 18 Oct 2014, 10:55 pm

Looking bad for Frankie. Ilonen has already passed and Streelman is in contention. Els needs to do a little better than tread water in the 4th round.

But if the tournament is not full (78 players) I think Frankie has a good chance of getting in. He should be high on the Alternate list.

Luiten can climb well inside the top 30 should he win and it should be enough for him to be in the top 50 at year end.

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Post by GPB Sun 19 Oct 2014, 2:28 pm

Yuta Ikeda wins Japan Open, He earns 32 pts and that should put him well inside the top 100. Adam Scott finished T38.

Scott Hend wins Hong Kong. He earns 19 points and that puts him about ~#130 depending on Shriner's results.

Ernie finishes in a 4 way T5th, which is enough to pass Frankie, if they give Frankie a T13th finish. It is not enough to pass Frankie if they give a T9 finish.

Henrik remains ranked #5 if he finishes 2nd, and 3rd if he wins.

Did some End of year forecasts for Luke and IJP. Luke looks to be inside the top 50 at year end, no matter how he plays the last two months of the year.

Poulter probably needs to average 2.7 points per tournament to remain in the top 50.

This is based on #50 ranking being at 2.55 points. It was 2.34 last year.

Lowry will need to earn at least 20 points to get into the year end Top 50.

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