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OWGR Wk 47 and OWGR Demographics 1999-2014

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super_realist
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Post by GPB Sun Nov 23, 2014 3:33 pm

First topic message reminder :

Great wins by Henrik and Hideki!  and a couple MASTERS wins from Nick Cullum in the Aussie Masters and Mardan Mamat in the Manila Masters on the Asian Tour.

And Shane Lowry cracks the Top 50, but I would not reservations for Augusta quite yet.  Some golf yet to play in South Africa, Australia, Japan, and Thailand.

This is what the Top 100 should look like tomorrow.  (The Callaway Invitational does not count towards OWGR rankings, Lee Janzen is leading going into final round)

1 Rory McIlroy 11.974
2 Henrik Stenson 8.264 ===> Winner DP World Championship
3 Adam Scott 8.117
4 Bubba Watson 7.617
5 Sergio Garcia 7.031
6 Jim Furyk 7.022
7 Justin Rose 6.991
8 Jason Day 6.139
9 Rickie Fowler 5.701
10 Matt Kuchar 5.556
11 Phil Mickelson 5.043
12 Martin Kaymer 4.832
13 Billy Horschel 4.686
14 Jordan Spieth 4.644
15 Graeme McDowell 4.455
16 Hideki Matsuyama 4.421 ===> Winner Dunlop Phoenix
17 Victor Dubuisson 4.404
18 Dustin Johnson 4.147
19 Zach Johnson 4.103
20 Chris Kirk 4.001
21 Jimmy Walker 3.962
22 Hunter Mahan 3.891
23 Jamie Donaldson 3.750
24 Tiger Woods 3.603
25 Patrick Reed 3.471
26 Ian Poulter 3.439
27 Kevin Na 3.381
28 Joost Luiten 3.351
29 Ryan Moore 3.319
30 Charl Schwartzel 3.275
31 Keegan Bradley 3.181
32 Thomas Bjorn 3.110
33 Bill Haas 3.107
34 Jason Dufner 3.091
35 Brooks Koepka 3.069
36 Stephen Gallacher 3.053
37 Luke Donald 3.027
38 Steve Stricker 3.020
39 Webb Simpson 3.013
40 Ryan Palmer 2.959
41 Miguel A Jimenez 2.940
42 Lee Westwood 2.833
43 Thongchai Jaidee 2.814
44 Mikko Ilonen 2.813
45 Gary Woodland 2.769
46 Marc Leishman 2.767
47 Shane Lowry 2.713
48 Kevin Streelman 2.701
49 Brandt Snedeker 2.633
50 John Senden 2.578
===========
51 Graham Delaet 2.567
52 Brendon Todd 2.554
53 Alexander Levy 2.492
54 Koumei Oda 2.464
55 Francesco Molinari 2.459
56 Louis Oosthuizen 2.426
57 Ernie Els 2.419
58 Russell Henley 2.418
59 Jonas Blixt 2.374
60 Tommy Fleetwood 2.329
61 Tim Clark 2.250
62 Ben Martin 2.190
63 Hiroshi Iwata 2.188
64 J.B. Holmes 2.158
65 Marcel Siem 2.157
66 Kevin Stadler 2.145
67 Angel Cabrera 2.129
68 Marc Warren 2.123
69 Pablo Larrazabal 2.059
70 Charley Hoffman 2.024
71 Harris English 2.018
72 Matt Every 2.018
73 Bernd Wiesberger 2.018
74 Paul Casey 2.006
75 Matt Jones 1.992
76 Anirban Lahiri 1.925
77 George Coetzee 1.902
78 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.877
79 Cameron Tringale 1.849
80 Bae Sang-moon 1.819
81 Brian Harman 1.790
82 Brendon de Jonge 1.778
83 Danny Willett 1.756
84 Richard Sterne 1.719
85 Hideto Tanihara 1.718
86 Ross Fisher 1.693
87 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.683
88 Geoff Ogilvy 1.657
89 Robert Streb 1.654
90 Richie Ramsay 1.653
91 Erik Compton 1.649
92 Freddie Jacobson 1.630
93 Chris Stroud 1.620
94 Steven Bowditch 1.618
95 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 1.616
96 Romain Wattel 1.609
97 Robert Karlsson 1.606
98 Russell Knox 1.603
99 Edoardo Molinari 1.585
100 Kevin Chappell 1.581
=======
101 Tomohiro Kondo 1.580
102 Noh Seung-yul 1.579
103 Ryo Ishikawa 1.565
=====
~250 Nick Cullum 0.747 ===> Winner Aussie Masters
~446 Mardan Mamat 0.394 ===> Winner Manila Masters

===================

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Post by super_realist Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:42 am

Of course they could Mac, there are tons of players on all of those tours who struggle to make a living. You need to earn a reasonable amount to keep your card, many live in pretty much poverty once they've taken expenses out of the equation.
Must be very stressful. Obviously Lowry doesn't struggle right now, but he's not winning either.

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Post by McLaren Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:43 am

Super

Do you really think anyone with a PGAT card lives in poverty?
McLaren
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Post by pedro Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:53 am

incontinentia wrote:
pedro wrote:
incontinentia wrote:3 words guys: Future Open Champion
I'm fattist and can't bear to see him do well.
Amended for truth!
raspberry

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Post by robopz Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:27 am

Assuming no key WD's or players falling significantly on their ranking next week... it looks as though next weeks Australian PGA (their 3rd major) might barely be worth 24 points (with 2 ERV's to spare). They can thank Adam Scott for 1/3 of those points... because without his participation it would be worth only the Australian Tour minimum of 16.


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Post by kwinigolfer Thu Dec 04, 2014 1:55 am

Adam Scott going the Greg Norman route, albeit with the most honourable intentions.

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Post by GPB Thu Dec 04, 2014 3:48 pm

Robo:  You know that I have raised my eyebrows over Sagarin Ratings.

Have you seen his College Football Ratings?

Sagarin has undefeated Florida State ranked #17.  Behind 6-6 Arkansas.

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Post by robopz Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:08 pm

GPB wrote:Robo:  You know that I have raised my eyebrows over Sagarin Ratings.

Have you seen his College Football Ratings?

Sagarin has undefeated Florida State ranked #17.  Behind 6-6 Arkansas.
Ha... just now looked. I also notice they have N.Dakota St ranked ahead of Notre Dame.

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Post by GPB Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:24 pm

robopz wrote:
GPB wrote:Robo:  You know that I have raised my eyebrows over Sagarin Ratings.

Have you seen his College Football Ratings?

Sagarin has undefeated Florida State ranked #17.  Behind 6-6 Arkansas.
Ha... just now looked.  I also notice they have N.Dakota St ranked ahead of Notre Dame.

Hey, don't be dissing the Bison of North Dakota State.  ESPN Gameday was there earlier this year when ND State was playing the University of the Incarnate Word.  A College that was unknown to me.  Found out later it is from your neck of the woods.  San Antonio...well maybe a giraffe's neck

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Post by super_realist Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:24 pm

McLaren wrote:Super

Do you really think anyone with a PGAT card lives in poverty?

Potentially Mac, 60 players on the PGA earned less than 50k on the tour this year. Wouldn't even cover the costs incurred.
If you're not a big name player, there's every chance you could be in poverty.
There's plenty stories of guys sleeping 4 to a room, in their cars, showering at the club etc etc.

Why would you think that everyone makes a comfortable living on the PGAT (or any other tour)

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Post by GPB Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:01 pm

Some early projections of Tournament leaders

Nedbank:

Ross Fisher could get to about 58th with Nedbank win.

Levy ~32nd
Coetzee ~50th
Siem ~42nd

HWC

Jordan Spieth could get to #8 at best (depending on how J-Day finishes)

Stricker: ~20th
Zach: ~11th
Walker: ~12th


Koumei Oda is leading the Japanese Season Finale.  He could also get to #42 should he win (and a spot in the Masters.


Last edited by GPB on Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:07 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : added projection for Koumei Oda)

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Post by GPB Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:21 pm

Assuming Tiger's next tournament is Torrey Pines, Tiger probably needs to finish in the Top 7 to be in the top 50 when he plays that week.

FWIW, he is not exempt into Doral, yet. Even though he won it two years ago.

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Post by robopz Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:04 am

GPB wrote:Assuming Tiger's next tournament is Torrey Pines, Tiger probably needs to finish in the Top 7 to be in the top 50 when he plays that week.

FWIW, he is not exempt into Doral, yet. Even though he won it two years ago.
I'm betting Tiger will have at least two starts prior to the Honda which would give him 2 more events before the OWGR cut-off for the WGC Cadillac...  no clue where the additional one will be yet... probably Pebble... long-shot Riviera... longer shot Phoenix... never gonna happen Humana or Sony.   I wouldn't totally discount Qatar yet either, despite the recent articles about Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and last year's comments by the Qatar guy saying TW's not worth $3 million.  If TW feels he needs the work (and it sure looks like that's a likely YES)... he's gonna play more somewhere, even if he has to take a discount to play the M.E. (And with Rory already soaking up big bucks in Dubai and Abu Dhabi... Qatar seems to make the most sense)

EDIT: Correction... I forgot WGC Cadillac does top-50 two weeks before (after Riviera) and again the week before (after Honda)... so that would give TW potentially 3 events to make top-50 in time for the WGC Cadillac...  

What are you projecting his average to be (using last place this week) on the Feb 23 and Mar 2 rankings?

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Post by kwinigolfer Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:48 am

Pointless hoping he doesn't get into events (and I'm not suggesting anyone here does) - his presence brings more buzz and more cred to the winner. Even if it's ETW. Ludicrous to think he can't recapture at least some of his 2013 form.
I hope he plays as often as possible; hate when he just prima donnas certain tournaments.

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Post by robopz Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:54 am

kwinigolfer wrote:Pointless hoping he doesn't get into events (and I'm not suggesting anyone here does) - his presence brings more buzz and more cred to the winner. Even if it's ETW. Ludicrous to think he can't recapture at least some of his 2013 form.
I hope he plays as often as possible; hate when he just prima donnas certain tournaments.
thumbsup

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Post by GPB Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:35 am

The 2014 Average for the 50th rank player was approx 2.4 at the end of Feb/beginning of March.  Use that Benchmark.

Tiger's average will be 2.33 going into Torrey Pines if he finishes DFL this week.  

Assuming no points at Torrey Pines, his average three weeks later will be 1.96 on Feb 23 and 4 weeks later 1.85 on March 2nd.

Best guess he needs to earn 18 points before Honda to have a 2.4 average on Feb 23 and a reasonable chance to be in top 50 on Feb 26.  And 22-23 points after Honda to be in top 50.


Based on previous years fields, Torrey will probably be rated 48-50 and Honda will probably be rated 56-60.

Agree that he won't play Sony or Humana, but I think there is reasonable chance he could play Phoenix.  And I would like to see play Phoenix to watch a couple posters do an about face about the tournament.  It will suddenly be one of the better tournaments of the year.

Phoenix is a better fit for him than cold/rainy 6.5 hour rounds Pebble Beach.

Would not be surprised to see play the Hero Indian Open which is the week before Honda. Same week as Los Angeles.  


Edit:  Speaking of Phoenix, WMO has extended sponsorship through 2025!  10 years after this year.


Last edited by GPB on Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:56 am; edited 2 times in total

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Post by GPB Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:41 am

Robo: BTW...If Tiger plays Qatar and Rory plays Abu Dhabi and Dubai, would that mean Tiger is making a schedule so he doesn't have to face Rory in a tournament?

It would be funny to see some heads explode about that.

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Post by super_realist Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:24 am

Surely 9C on current form, Rory would be the last of his worries. He should be frightened about being in a tournament with anyone else in it.

Maybe next year he should make his invite tournament just one player. Himself.

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Post by robopz Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:56 pm

GPB wrote:Robo: BTW...If Tiger plays Qatar and Rory plays Abu Dhabi and Dubai, would that mean Tiger is making a schedule so he doesn't have to face Rory in a tournament?

It would be funny to see some heads explode about that.
No... I would think it means he'd prefer going where he can get the most money.  All things being equal, I think he'd probably prefer to play Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Dubai in that order of preference. That way there's no long trip from the ME to the West Coast of the U.S. for a back to back.  My only thoughts about Abu Dhabi and Dubai are Rory's already using up a lot of the "sugar" budget of both those... but Qatar doesn't have what i would perceive to be the "high dollar" commitments of the other two (at least not that I've seen).


And thanks for the late Feb early Mar estimates..

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Post by GPB Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:43 am

Paddy tied for the lead on the Asian Tour going into Round 3.

Harrington can nearly double his 2014 OWGR pt accumulation should he go on to win in Indonesia.

The 14 pts to the winner would put Paddy about #250 in the rankings, from about #380.

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Post by kwinigolfer Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:32 am

Harrington steaming away in Round 3 . . . . can he keep it up?

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Post by robopz Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:45 am

kwinigolfer wrote:Harrington steaming away in Round 3 . . . . can he keep it up?
Hope he can. This may be a "nothing" event in the grand scheme of things to a lot of people... but if Paddy can win this it would have to be a incalculable boost to his confidence...

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Post by kwinigolfer Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:55 am

Agreed.
Just like winning an "exhibition"! Luke, We're talking about you again!!

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Post by GPB Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:42 pm

5 shot lead going into final round for Paddy!  Lahiri is T6th and not making much progress towards the top 50.

Edit:  Paddy has a few holes to play in 3rd round. More rain delays



Koumei Oda has fallen 5 shots behind the leader in the Japanese Tour Finale. Thats T9 and still not impacting the Top 50.

Luke can get as high as  #23 with a win.


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Post by GPB Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:30 pm

Quick Back of the envelope calculations:

Spieth goes to 9th if he can close it out, unless Jason Day finishes DFL, then Spieth will be 8th.

Bubba needs a solo 2nd to overtake Adam Scott.
Rose will probably pass Furyk unless he falls back considerably.

=========

Willett can get to the low 50's with a win in South Africa.

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Post by sirbenson Sun Dec 07, 2014 12:27 am

Come on Paddy!! A win is a win and it will do wonders to his ranking and confidence......plus I think it will qualify him for the Thailand Golf Championship, which has a fantastic field! If he wins and choses to play that is!

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Post by GPB Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:22 pm

And Paddy does it! Moves him to about 260th in the rankings.

Miyamoto wins in Japan, moves him into the 150's.

Looks like Willett will be #56 if he can hold onto the win.

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Post by GPB Sun Dec 07, 2014 3:05 pm

The Top 50 bubble is pretty close. Includes Nedbank Results


49 Senden  2.536
50 B Todd  2.514
51 Sneds   2.499
52 A Levy  2.494
53 K Oda   2.480
54 Oosty   2.473
55 Delaet  2.463
56 Willett 2.421

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Post by GPB Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:42 pm

The current Top 10 of the OWGR accounts for just 9 official wins on the PGATour this year.

Rory - 3  (OpenC, B-Stone, PGA)
Henrik - 0
Adam - 1 (Colonial)
Bubba - 3 (Los Angeles, Masters, HSBC)
Rose - 1 (Quicken)
Furyk - 0
Sergio - 0 
Day - 1 (Match Play)
Spieth - 0
Fowler - 0

Take away Rory and Bubba, 8 of the top 10 had a total of 3  wins.

And only 4 Wins on the Euro Tour that are not sanctioned by the PGATour:

Rory - 1  (BMW PGA)
Henrik - 1 (RtD)
Adam - 0
Bubba - 0
Rose - 1 (Scottish Open)
Furyk - 0
Sergio - 1 (Qatar)
Day - 0
Spieth - 0
Fowler - 0

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Post by robopz Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:58 pm

GPB wrote:I would like to see PGAT Tour Championship expand to 40 players (or 60).  I have said so several times before.  But no one outside the Top 30 should be able to win the FE Cup.

The ToC should expand to two years and invite winners of the Big Asian Events.  That would get it to a potentially 50-60 player field.
I agree totally with the concept on both events. I could split hairs, or suggest other options to achieve the same thing... but the important thing is that the events get expanded (I would prefer 60 minimum, or impose a % OWGR point reduction if they fail to reach that)


GPB wrote:I think what also should be considered that the TC and the ToC were around before OWGR had an impact on invites.  They were not designed to exploit the SoF OWGR rating system.  It was just happenstance that they did.  Technically the roots of Nedbank predate the importance of the OWGR.


The WC, WGCs, Volvo and RtD formats were designed post OWGR.  And the formats exploit the OWGR rating system.
I agree to the extent that there wasn't much of a problem with small field events affecting the OWGR pre the advent of the "ultra-small" events getting OWGR rankings. That is EXCEPT to the extent the ToC and TC were affording the PGAT an advantage in the rankings over other tours that didn't have similar roughly 30 player events. But I still don't think it was a problem, because other OWGR "issues" we've discussed (such as event minimums and home points) were considerably favoring the "other tours"... most dramatically on the Japan and Euro Tours over the PGAT.

And please... with EVERY intention on my part of staying away from all the other ancillary WGC issues we go round and round on... I'd like to say simply say I don't think the WGC's were designed to "exploit" anything having to do with the OWGR. IMO they were conceived for the purposes of getting the "worlds" best together in common fields more often. Simple as that. It just so happened the OWGR was the logical vehicle to achieve a "worlds best" assembly of fields. But IMO, at that point in time the WGC's still weren't any kind of problem in the grand scheme of things. If the Tour's were even aware how they would impact things around the #50 area, I don't think they cared. (I still don't think they care, and quite frankly neither do I, but that's a topic we're simply NOT gonna agree on so let's set that aside for now)

But IMO where the problem started WAS with the "ultra-smalls" and that was the HSBC (Volvo) Match Play in 2004. I could understand the ET wanting to get this event OWGR points as it was going from unofficial to official on the ET... and I can understand how they might have been thinking "the PGA has two small field events, we can have at least one". But with 20-20 hindsight... this is where the OWGR probably missed the boat in not requiring it go to at least 32 players, if not 64.... and at the same time anticipating the precedent it was setting for future proliferation of smaller events.

But the real issue started with the 12-player NedBank getting OWGR points in 2006. IMO the OWGR should have put their foot down right there. The fact it wasn't official doesn't matter one way or the other to me... what mattered is there's no way a 12 player event should have been getting points.

And ditto the World Challenge. I believe with the advent of the Nedbank points... the boys at Ponte Vedra probably sat up and noticed "wait a minute, these small events can have an effect on our players qualifying for bigger events"... and the realized there might actually be some "exploitation" of the OWGR system through these small events . Of course the WC folks were probably more interested in getting OWGR status so they could compete with the Nedbank... but I'd bet the PGAT was making damn sure they were successful in doing so.. as much as anything for a PGAT counter to the Nedbank.

But today... IMHO the word exploitation very much comes into play and the OWGR, because the OWGR points and the resulting rankings are the currency that get you into all the worlds Biggest events... and to that end I think there is a "cold war" of attempted manipulation and thus exploitation of the OWGR going on between the PGAT and the ET by the addition of not only getting ultra small events ranked, but other no cut events.

IMO us focusing ONLY on WGC's or ultra-small events, misses a big part of the problem. Here's a quick rehash of the chronology of all the events I can think of right now... and how all of this got so out of control. (with running total no-cut OWGR rated events).

1998 - no real problem yet because ToC and TC not affecting much. There may be other small events on other minor Tours, but unless they are on the PGAT or ET, they have negligible OWGR effect. And near as I can tell in 1998, there aren't any no-cut or ultra small events on the ET (so the event count starts at 2)

1999 - 4 WGC's come on line, but one is a non-0WGR team event - IMO still no problem (even though I think we might disagree) (5)

2004 - HSBC Match Play - Inkling of a problem, but response to 2 PGAT 30 player events seems fair. (6)

2005 - HSBC Champions added - no cut benefiting the ET (PGAT players invited but not participating much and its non official PGAT) (7)

2006 - Nedbank - Definitely favors ET in OWGR points distributed (8)

2007 - FedEx Cup - Adds one more 100 player field and a no-cut 70 player field (despite the fact not all players necessarily get points in those and there are dual tour ET members as well, they still favor the higher ranked full time PGAT players as a higher % of higher ranked PGAT players are earning points than if they were full field) (9 not counting the 100 player field)

2008 - World Challenge gains points to compete with Nedbank benefiting PGAT more heavily than ET. (10)

2009 - Dubai World (DP) Championship begins benefiting the ET. (11)

2010 - Limited field CIMB comes on line with OWGR points benefiting PGAT more heavily than ET. (12)

2012 - Volvo Golf Champions moves to SA and goes from full field with cut to approx 35 no cut. benefiting ET more heavily than PGAT (13)

2012 - BMW Masters comes on with no cut benefiting ET more heavily than PGAT (14)

2013 - HSBC Champions fully recognized by PGAT... lessening ET benefit. (14 - no change)

2013 - R2D finals series created... adds Turkish Airlines Open benefiting ET more heavily than PGAT (15)

2013 - World Cup created with OWGR points... benefiting ET more heavily than PGAT (16 but only every other year)

2014 - CIMB strips out most the Asian invitees - benefiting PGAT more heavily than before. (16 no change)

2015 - ET to add Lawrie Match Play of 64 players benefiting ET more heavily than PGAT (but might be offset if Volvo MP doesn't continue) (might be gain to 17, if Volvo MP is gone, remains at 16)

2015 - Volvo Golf Champions apparently goes away... net loss of one. (15-16 depending on Volvo MP status)

Bottom line: HOLY CRAP... we've gone from 2 to 15-16 either no-cut or ultra small OWGR rated events in less than 20 years.

IMO it's gotten to the point that all these events are either 1) are a REAL BIG problem... or 2) they're just a harbinger of what golf in the future is going to look like. But when I look at the OWGR's purpose of not only identifying a #1, but more importantly being used as a primary benchmark for entry into big events... I see them as a problem.

IMO the reason for the proliferation of these either no-cut or ultra small field events being created and gaining OWGR points are two-fold one of them "innocent"... the other not so much.

Innocent... in that for the most part (but not all cases) these are the higher $$$ events on the Tours and thus higher sponsorship costs. And sponsors are demanding more value for that higher dollar, and they want to ensure the "stars" are around all 4 days to attract viewers/fans.

Not so innocent... in that if you look at the progression above... you see an almost boobie for tat battle between the PGAT and ET responding to each move by the other... and with good reason. If we set the 4 WGC's aside, there's still 11 or 12 more of these events remaining on the two tours... and if one tour had a bunch of them, compared to few of them for the other... that tour with the most would have a much more significant advantage in the OWGR rankings than the other. And I believe BOTH the PGAT and ET are acutely aware of that... and won't/can't let further additions of these kinds of events by the other tour left unanswered for long.

Individually on their own... or in small doses... I don't have much of a problem with any of these events and their impact on the OWGR... but when you consider ALL of them and the impact... yeah I see them as a big problem.

Now the question is... what would be the best way to deal with it?

IMO a big part of a potential solution is in our shared belief that SOF's of events don't go deep enough into fields... focusing on that... and taking it just a little further... there might be "relatively" simple fixes the OWGR could implement that would "fix" all of it. My "middle ground" suggestion would be only a part of it... But the "fix" topic is another long post... and with this one Waaaaaaaaaaay too long already... I'll address some of that later.

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Post by GPB Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:19 pm

Robo:

What do you think the most important role of the OWGR?  I want your opinion, not a restatement of the Ian Barker's Mission Statement.

IMO, its most important role is not to identify the best player or the ten best players in the World Rankings.

Its most important role is to identify who gets into, and who doesn't get into the Majors (and TPC and BMW).  Secondary is the WGC's.

I agree that the PGAT (and other similar entities) don't give a "Rats Behind" about Brandt Snedeker falling out of the Top 50 this week.  

Exhibit #1.  There is more buzz around the rankings on the deadline dates like Dec 31, and the deadline dates for the Masters and US Open and OC and the PGA (and yes the WGCs)

And yes there is buzz when someone takes over the number 1 spot but is that really important. in the whole scheme of things?  And it may take years for someone to lose the #1 spot.  Or it might be a week.

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Post by robopz Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:46 pm

GPB wrote:As far as your "Middle Ground", but what needs to happen is the a total re build of the SoF rating system that accounts for all the players in the field, just not the top 200.  
I've always agreed that SOF should account deeper into fields past 200.  That's where I came up with the Sum of Averages concept.   But thinking about that further, there are things I like about it, and things I don't.    Without getting into all of it, IMO a blended points system for SOF using some defined schedule for the top-100 similar to what we have now (but perhaps not quite as top-heavy and using the highest of the actual average or 2.0 as a minimum) and then use actual player averages from #101 down and count everybody in the field.

GPB wrote:And tournaments that are just exhibitions and unofficial just need to be not counted.  No points and....no divisor.  John Daly gets no points for his Turkey win this week.  The 100k guaranteed payday should be more than enough to induce players to win.  (If they are that good, they don't need to eat a the Soup Kitchen). 
The whole concept of my suggested stepped reduction's for small field events is to ELIMINATE them as we know them now by in effect forcing them to bring their fields up in size.  IMO if a WC were told today that starting in 2016, you're event doesn't qualify for ANY OWGR points at the size it currently is, and unless you bring it up to 60 it will get only partial points... the WC would modify it's event in a heart beat.... so would the Volvo Match Play (if it still really exists) along with any other small events.  

And I would extend that to EVERY event under 60 players... including promoting the kinds of expansions you suggested for the ToC and TC...  

But to me... I don't see where the "official-ness" of an event matters. If it's got the sufficient quality of field and is of sufficient size, and sufficient number of rounds in individual stroke play or matches in match play, I have zero problems with an unofficial event being included in the OWGR.  

GPB wrote:I have said many times that the WGCs are over-rated.  To clarify,  the Full field events are UNDER-RATED because as many as 70-100 players are not contributing to the SoF.  The SoF formulas are flawed when one-armed GPB adds as much value to as 3 time Major Champion Paddy Harrington and 3 time Major Champ Vijay Singh.  Added together!!

But the next level of saying that full field events are under-rated means that WGC's are over-rated. 
ONLY in the context of comparisons of SOF would I agree that WGC's are "over-rated", because in terms of prestige or value to the players, I don't believe they are.  But on the SOF front, that was the whole thought process of my Sum of Averages (SOA) concept.  IMO the current "relative" relationship of OWGR points between a Reno to a John Deere, to a Shell, to a Memorial is "about right"... all of them being relatively full field events.  But what a SOA concept modified as I suggested above does is bring ALL those full field events closer to any event that has a limited field.  (And I agreed with expansions of the ToC and TC in my prior post).

I also think that SOA concept (or ANY scheme that gives some SOF credit to every player in the field) deals effectively with ALL those other no-cut events I listed in my prior post.

GPB wrote:The Tennis models got so broken with the World events that it is hard to keep track.  And Typically only 32 players are in a one week long tournament.
Man... I couldn't agree more that the Tennis model is broken. I'd love to stop comparing golf to tennis... so maybe we can agree to agree on that one finally.

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Post by robopz Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:02 pm

GPB wrote:Robo:

What do you think the most important role of the OWGR?  I want your opinion, not a restatement of the Ian Barker's Mission Statement.

IMO, its most important role is not to identify the best player or the ten best players in the World Rankings.
I'm not copping out, but IMO both are VERY important, and I'm not 100% sure which is most important, but I probably lean in your direction.  

But discussion of "who's the best" has always been part of sport and I like it that way and think it should be that way.  And we've always done it in golf, except that in the past we used more individual tour specific metrics to do it  (like money lists or POY's or whatever).... but IMO we need some metric on an international basis that takes all the worlds tours and players into account... and for whatever it's flaws... the OWGR is severing as the most widely accepted world wide metric for "Who's the best"... and I'm good with that.

EDIT: But about Buzz... I'm not sure the buzz about who gets into what events is all that great except to the super-serious, extremely well educated golf fan, like people who spend all this frickin time on golf boards like this, and OWGR wonks like us (and the players and friends and families of said players) . Heck... I'd guess 75% of the people on this board totally zone out on you and I when we have these discussions... because except for maybe their favorite player who might happen to be on the bubble for this or that event... they could care less..

But the "BUZZ" over a good race for #1, or a dominate #1 permeates the entire fan base of the sport... and IMO dwarfs all this "who's gonna make top-50 stuff by maybe 1000 fold.


Last edited by robopz on Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:09 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by super_realist Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:06 pm

OWGR rank who is the most consistent in my opinion, rather than who's best.
My real issue with the OWGR is that points don't drop off quickly enough, we have pleyers in atrocious form occupying incredibly false positions (9C and Poulter) for example.
Even Fat Shane deserves to be higher than those two.
9C and Poulter have been dining off ancient results for too long.

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Post by GPB Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:34 pm

Where did you get that Tennis Quote?  I can't find it in this thread and I would like to know the context of why I said it.

Since Tennis is the only other  mainstream individual sport I think some comparisons are fair to make, others not so much.

The comparisons are fair at high level like GOAT Comparisons.

GOAT comparisons are fair because it is an individual sports.

Grand Slams analogies to Majors are fair.

Comparison at a microscopic level start to get really fuzzy.  The resolution is not as clear.

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Post by robopz Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:51 pm

GPB wrote:Where did you get that Tennis Quote?  I can't find it in this thread and I would like to know the context of why I said it.

Since Tennis is the only other  mainstream individual sport I think some comparisons are fair to make, others not so much.

The comparisons are fair at high level like GOAT Comparisons.

GOAT comparisons are fair because it is an individual sports.

Grand Slams analogies to Majors are fair.

Comparison at a microscopic level start to get really fuzzy.  The resolution is not as clear.
As i had said in Kwini's thread... I moved a long response you made to me to your OWGR thread as I thought it more appropriate here... and I responded in two parts. The Tennis quote I had made was in regard to objections of some of all players in some golf fields getting money and points... I pointed out in Tennis at the top level, all players in the field get both money and points as well.... but I don't want to get into a tennis debate... I'll just leave it that I disagree with some of the relevance of comparisons of tennis to golf... as we've discussed in the past.

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Post by robopz Tue Dec 09, 2014 2:25 pm

GPB.... I think TW's job to get into Doral is even a little harder than you stated earlier.... I believe your projections were exact based on DFL at the WC... but the 2.4 average needed you estimated may be higher...

I ran the numbers myself after the WC and before any points are added, I have him at 1.985 at Feb 23 and 1.866  at Mar 2.  While he gained a smidge by getting to co-DFL at the WC... it appears to me #50 is trending about 1/10th higher this year over last, so maybe a safer "average needed" range to project for him is more likely to be 2.5 to 2.6 (instead of 2.4)     If that's the case...  he needs  21-25 points by Feb 23, or 26-29 points by Mar 2.   Can you check this?

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Post by GPB Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:40 pm

Yes I used the 2.4 average for Feb 26 and based that only on last years #50 number.  And yes, #50 is trending a tenth of a point higher than it did last year at this time.

I didn't want to get too pessimistic on Tiger's chances (because I like to give him a benefit of doubt). Very Happy

The OWGR top 50 distribution is much different than last year.  Top 30 players have generally lower averages than last  and players ranked 30-50 have highers.

Last year vs this year

#15 5.01 => 4.40
#30 3.44 => 3.22
#50 2.40 => 2.51
#64 2.09 => 2.14
#100 1.59 => 1.56


Tiger would be ranked #31 instead of #25 if this year's rankings matched last years.  

Tiger's fall has been rather slow this year but it is going to speed up in the 7-8 weeks.  He will be #30 at the end of this year.  IJP, Na, Keegan will pass him next week and Joost and Moore will pass him before year end)

And after week 1 in 2015, Luke and Charl will pass him so he is literally falling like a rock.  His attrition rate is twice (0.13 pts per week) than anyone else in the #30-#60 range.

After Mickelson said he was taking the rest of the year off, I projected that he would fall to 19th at year end. Looks like he will only fall to 15th.  Kaymer and BillyH will pass before year end.  I was speculating that his streak of being in the Top 25 would end before he returned to action.  Looks like he will still be inside the top 20 when he plays Humana.  His ranking for consecutive weeks in the top 25 is incredible.  (Since June 1994)

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Post by McLaren Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:46 pm

Tiger only needs 100 points total to be a top 50 player. How hard can that be given he has 136 at the moment?

What will his average attrition rate per week be for the next 3 months?


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Post by GPB Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:09 pm

Tiger won three tournaments (Torrey, Cadillac, BH) early in 2013 so his attrition rate will be slowing down considerably after those tournaments scroll off the 24 month resume.

Notable changes in his attrition rates until the Masters.

Tiger is losing about ~5.4 points per week for another 7 weeks.
After that, he is losing ~4.8 pts/wk. (6 weeks) 
After Cadillac, he will be losing ~4.0 pts/wk (2 weeks)
After Bay Hill, he will be losing ~3.3 pts /wk.

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Post by McLaren Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:13 pm

So by the end of January/start of feb he could be down to the 100 point total mark?
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Post by GPB Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:24 pm

McLaren wrote:So by the end of January/start of feb he could be down to the 100 point total mark?

Yep, and that will likely put him close to the #50 spot.

And he is losing another 20-25 points from until Cadillac deadlines.

So he needs to replace those 20-25 at Torrey Pines (and whatever other tournaments he plays)

I am guessing 3rd place at Torrey Pines will close to 20 points (Level 50 tournament).

My guess is that he adds Phoenix this year, the week before Torrey Pines.

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Post by McLaren Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:59 pm

Well he had better get his arse in gear early on.   I hope the marketing departments of Sony, Humana, Waste Management, Farmers and Northern Trust have made some substantial offers of appearance money to tiger already. Wink
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Post by Shotrock Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:06 pm

The "brand" (and associated appeal) that is Tiger will live long after the competitive golfer that's Tiger. It's why Jack, Arnie and Greg still score so highly on the endorsement rankings for golfers.

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Post by super_realist Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:13 pm

Not so sure about that Shotrock.
9C is a petulant, highly unlikable, unsporting, classless misery on the course, and in interviews and does nothing to engage with the public, but intersperses it, or certainly used to with some blistering golf which is what people were interested in.

I can't see this demonstrable lack of a decent personality enduring much after his impending retiral. Not as if he'll be gracing events just to show face and not as if people have much affection for him the way they do with Nicklaus, Watson and that perennial coffin dodger Palmer.


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Post by robopz Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:36 pm

GPB wrote:Tiger's fall has been rather slow this year but it is going to speed up in the 7-8 weeks.  He will be #30 at the end of this year.  IJP, Na, Keegan will pass him next week and Joost and Moore will pass him before year end)

And after week 1 in 2015, Luke and Charl will pass him so he is literally falling like a rock.  His attrition rate is twice (0.13 pts per week) than anyone else in the #30-#60 range.

After Mickelson said he was taking the rest of the year off, I projected that he would fall to 19th at year end. Looks like he will only fall to 15th.  Kaymer and BillyH will pass before year end.  I was speculating that his streak of being in the Top 25 would end before he returned to action.  Looks like he will still be inside the top 20 when he plays Humana.  His ranking for consecutive weeks in the top 25 is incredible.  (Since June 1994)
Thanks for the confirmation on the numbers and added info... and not to "nit" but the individual player csv downloads at the OWGR seem to indicate TW will be at best #31 and Phil #14 at week 52.  Be nice if Phil can figure out some way to milk another few years inside the top-25... Incredible how consistent he's been staying high ranked, while individually within any given season... up and down and all over the map.

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Post by robopz Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:44 pm

McLaren wrote:Well he had better get his arse in gear early on.   I hope the marketing departments of Sony, Humana, Waste Management, Farmers and Northern Trust have made some substantial offers of appearance money to tiger already. Wink
If Tiger's so cheap... maybe all Northern Trust needs to offer is free checking... Whistle

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Post by kwinigolfer Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:49 pm

I wonder if Phil feels he has something (else?) to prove after such a ho-hum season and the disappointment of the Ryder Cup?

Seems as if he's enjoying a quality-of-life breather and will likely play five straight weeks to get a jump on 2015 - and Tiger?

Let's hope they both play at least a couple of tournaments together on the West Coast - Rory might be the best golfer but the PGA Tour and US Media loves nothing more than a Phil/Tiger rivalry.

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Post by GPB Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:17 pm

My quick calculations is the Tiger will fall to a little bit higher than 3.00 at year end.  And Luke and Charl on the Southside of 3.00. 

I didn't look at Koepka as he is at 3.06 so I thought he would drop below 3.00 in three weeks of Attrition, of course many of his points won't be "spoiling" so his average could be relatively static.

And I assumed PMick was 13th, not 12th.  And Kaymer and BillyHo would pass him.  So 14th at year end is correct.  So even better chance that he will stay in the top 25.

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Post by McLaren Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:28 am

kwinigolfer wrote:I wonder if Phil feels he has something (else?) to prove after such a ho-hum season and the disappointment of the Ryder Cup?

Seems as if he's enjoying a quality-of-life breather and will likely play five straight weeks to get a jump on 2015 - and Tiger?

Let's hope they both play at least a couple of tournaments together on the West Coast - Rory might be the best golfer but the PGA Tour and US Media loves nothing more than a Phil/Tiger rivalry.

How long is Phil stuck coaching his brothers college golf team to avoid some sort of penalties?



This may be straying off topic so if the mods/author move it then thats ok. Kwini mentioned the US media (media anywhere?) like a good Tiger/phil battle -even in these uncompetitive days - but who will prove to be Rory's phil? I am of course assuming Rory is the new Tiger. Despite few actual battles for the big events between tiger and phil we still have a great set of players just below tigers level to measure him against. I am thinking of Els, Veejay, phil and even Furyk.

There is no clear number 2 golfer that Rory will repeatedly have to beat in the way that Phil and rest were to tiger. They may not have competed head to head on a weekly basis but the notion of a definite number 2 existed, who in theory should have been competing at every major. Bubba may be the closest to this at the moment?
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Post by super_realist Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:34 am

Perhaps Spieth is that man Mac.

Gerry Watson, Masters apart had a pretty poor 2014, can't deny I'd love to see McIlroy hammer him every week though. Watson is a pretty deplorable person.

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