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OWGR May 2015, The Quest for US Open and Open Championship Exemption

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LadyPutt
I'm never wrong
McLaren
Davie
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Post by GPB Mon 04 May 2015, 12:33 am

First topic message reminder :

This weekends winners are Rory (Regains a Hammerlock on #1) in the Cadillac Matchplay, IJ Jang on the Japanese Tour  (about #220), Vaughn Groenwald on the Sunshine Tour (to about #425), Smylie Kaufman on the Web-com Tour (to about #328).

This is what the Top 100 should look like tomorrow.  The Open Championship deadline says Week 21, which I think is May 25th for the Top 50.  The US Open exemption deadline are June 8th and June 15th.

 
1RoryMcIlroy12.625
2JordanSpieth9.052
3HenrikStenson7.250
4BubbaWatson7.154
5JimFuryk6.980
6JustinRose6.430
7JasonDay6.375
8DustinJohnson6.050
9AdamScott5.684
10SergioGarcia5.582
11JimmyWalker5.299
12J.B.Holmes5.044
13RickieFowler4.667
14HidekiMatsuyama4.486
15PatrickReed4.449
16MattKuchar4.410
17MartinKaymer4.301
18PhilMickelson4.179
19BillyHorschel3.845
20BrooksKoepka3.578
21VictorDubuisson3.424
22KevinNa3.403
23LeeWestwood3.333
24LouisOosthuizen3.309
25BillHaas3.297
26ChrisKirk3.265
27ZachJohnson3.260
28RyanPalmer3.249
29IanPoulter3.168
30HunterMahan3.157
31RyanMoore3.117
32GaryWoodland3.097
33JamieDonaldson3.077
34PaulCasey3.023
35GraemeMcDowell2.896
36AnirbanLahiri2.883
37KeeganBradley2.871
38DannyWillett2.853
39CharlSchwartzel2.824
40BrandenGrace2.776
41BrandtSnedeker2.762
42BerndWiesberger2.614
43MattEvery2.585
44StephenGallacher2.552
45JoostLuiten2.536
46BrendonTodd2.525
47ThongchaiJaidee2.483
48WebbSimpson2.480
49RussellHenley2.454
50TommyFleetwood2.383
***Open Champ Deadline May 25th
51ShaneLowry2.341
52CharleyHoffman2.324
53MarcWarren2.273
54JohnSenden2.263
55LukeDonald2.221
56AlexanderLevy2.218
57MarcLeishman2.198
58CameronTringale2.191
59HarrisEnglish2.142
60AndySullivan2.125
***US Open Deadlines June 8th and 15th
61TimClark2.124
62JasonDufner2.120
63GeorgeCoetzee2.088
64DanielBerger2.073
65MattJones2.060
66BenMartin2.012
67ThomasBjorn1.986
68MikkoIlonen1.979
69Miguel AJimenez1.935
70FrancescoMolinari1.927
71MarcelSiem1.921
72KevinStreelman1.903
73RichieRamsay1.847
74GrahamDelaet1.816
75RossFisher1.812
76RussellKnox1.766
77KiradechAphibarnrat1.745
78KoumeiOda1.744
79Brendonde Jonge1.739
80SangmoonBae1.715
81SteveStricker1.703
82ErnieEls1.699
83NickWatney1.683
84MorganHoffmann1.678
85PadraigHarrington1.671
86JustinThomas1.669
87HiroshiIwata1.659
88ShawnStefani1.644
89EmilianoGrillo1.619
90PabloLarrazabal1.603
91RobertStreb1.594
92BrendanSteele  1.593
93ScottPiercy1.578
94JonasBlixt1.567
95AngelCabrera1.555
96JamesHahn1.554
97KevinStadler1.537
98RomainWattel1.519
99GaryStal1.518
100BrianHarman1.514

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Post by kwinigolfer Sat 06 Jun 2015, 1:20 pm

Agree about Bjorn, just. But he was well back so didn't bother considering him.

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Post by GPB Sat 06 Jun 2015, 1:27 pm

To comfortably crash the Top 60

Bowditch needs a top 10
English and M Jones need a top 4
Streelman, Streb, Knox need a top 3
Stefani, Delaet, Bae, McNeill, Watney, Steele, Stricker a top 2

Anyone from inside the top 150 will get inside the top 60 with a win.

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Post by kwinigolfer Sun 07 Jun 2015, 11:32 am

Would also think Top Fifteen and Twenty finishes respectively would secure June 15th Top 60 placings for Kisner and Sullivan.

Good chances then for Bowditch and Streelman from GPB's projections.

But it seems that, even if he should win today, Molinari would not be exempt into The Open. The R&A have got their cut-off waaaayyyy too early. Premature extrapolation, to say the least. But a Top Ten at, say The Travelers, would do the trick. Daft.

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Post by GPB Sun 07 Jun 2015, 2:07 pm

I think the R/A starts the alternate list from a later OWGR ranking so Frankie should be pretty high on Alternate List.

should either win, Rose or Furyk will be #3.

Frankie would crash Top 25.

Lingmerth into the Top 70


Noren also gets into Top 70 with a win at the Nordea Masters.

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Post by GPB Mon 08 Jun 2015, 12:37 am

Noren to #70
Lingmerth to #71

Frankie goes to #44 which should put as the #1 or #2 alternate for the Open Championship.

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Post by sirbenson Tue 09 Jun 2015, 5:35 pm

Is there a way for the field to be so weak that Harrington with a Win wouldn't get into the top 60?

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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 09 Jun 2015, 5:52 pm

YES!

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Post by sirbenson Tue 09 Jun 2015, 6:01 pm

It would take a high profile W/D like DJ or something right?

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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 09 Jun 2015, 6:32 pm

Harrington is probably right on the edge.
GPB would know better than moi but Schwartzel's w/d won't have helped Harrington. Very very close!

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Post by GPB Tue 09 Jun 2015, 6:47 pm

PD says Memphis could drop to level 34 and that would be barely enough for Paddy to get the into top 60.

But other players could spoil that I assume.

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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 09 Jun 2015, 6:54 pm

GPB,
It's already at 34 according to owgr, and that's before King Charl's abdication . . . . . A couple more and they'll be at 32 and that could rule Padraig out. Having said which, I quite fancy him to play well in Memphis!

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Post by GPB Tue 09 Jun 2015, 7:28 pm

OWGR says the Memphis has 179 EVR which is a strong 34.  King Charl is worth 7 EVR, so that moves it to 172 EVR.

Level 34 is 166-180, so Memphis is holding at Level 34 with King Charl's abdication.

To go to Level 32 it needs another high profile W/D or at least two low profile W/D.

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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 23 Jun 2015, 10:52 pm

Not sure about the owgr for Munich (36? EDIT: 32 according to owgr), but princedrac reckons 46 for The Travelers.

Regardless, a BIG week for Open Championship qualification:

1) Top 4 not previously exempt who finish Top 12 and ties at The Travelers.

2).Top 20 in FedEx points as at June 29th. Hoffman, Streb, Kisner seem to have wrapped up qualification via this route; Bowditch is 18th, Bae , Knox and Lingmerth need a decent finish in Hartford to reach the Top 20. Obviously podium finishers might overtake this lot.

3).Top 20 in R2D rankings on June 29th. Noren and Aphibarnrat will qualify via this route; Wood and Stal need a strong finish in Munich to join them.

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Post by GPB Sun 28 Jun 2015, 4:02 pm

Pablo moves up to about 70th.  
Henrik will move up to 5th if Bubba finishes 5th or worse.  

Bubba will retake the #3 spot if he finishes with a Two Way T2nd or better.

A Sergio win will move him to 6th at best, depending on how Bubba finishes.  Bubba would stay ahead if he finishes solo 7th or better.

Harman and DeLaet would move into top 50 with a win

Harman, DeLaet, Stroud, Rodgers, Garnett, Curran, Wilson, Petterson, and Gore are also playing for a spot into the Open Championship.

Top 4 will get an exemption as long as they finish in the top 12.  Ties will be resolved by highest World Ranking.


Edit: Woods down to at least 215th after this week.

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Post by kwinigolfer Sun 28 Jun 2015, 7:37 pm

Confirmation that Noren and Alphibarnrat qualify for St.Andrews via the R2D Top Twenty.

Looks like Hoffman, Streb, Kisner and Bowditch will qualify via FedEx Top Twenty pts, possibly more, but unlikely.

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Post by kwinigolfer Sun 28 Jun 2015, 8:16 pm

Luuuuuuuke

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Post by kwinigolfer Sun 28 Jun 2015, 10:57 pm

By hook or by crook . . . .
I think Luke Donald can unofficially be declared a participant at the Open Championship.

Come on Casey . . . . .

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Post by kwinigolfer Sun 28 Jun 2015, 11:11 pm

Paul Casey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! All down to Bubba now.

Our coverage has been interrupted about seven times with coverage of the Dannemora fugitive so have missed most of the denouement of this.
Expecting a wub, wub, wub any moment with a bullet-ridden prisoner coming in to land.

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Post by I'm never wrong Mon 29 Jun 2015, 8:36 am

I'm going to have another go at making a statement. Last two times I have got it wrong (Moi?) so I am now trying to live up to my name.
There were two exemption criteria resolved after the Travelers Championship: those in the top four in the tournament, but also the top 5 not already qualified from the top 20 of the FedEx points list. This would appear to give C Hoffman, Streb, Kisner and Bowditch places.
(Someone with more knowledge please confirm/deny Very Happy)

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Post by kwinigolfer Mon 29 Jun 2015, 12:04 pm

I'm sure that's correct, but then I'm often wrong!
DeLaet, Harman, Pettersson and Donald off to shoot 254.

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Post by GPB Tue 30 Jun 2015, 2:23 am

G-Mac is headed to the wrong side of the Top 50, (he is 48th)
He safe for the Major events remaining this year (except WGC-China).  He is exempt for the B-Stone because they invite Ryder Cuppers.
His Major exemption from the 2010 US Open has expired for the Masters, British and PGA. If he doesn't turn his game around, he may find himself out of all the big tournaments next year.

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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 30 Jun 2015, 3:08 am

GPB,
McDool hasn't had a Top 25 finish since a 9th place in Dubai. Shocking really.
He's along way away from qualifying for the FedEx Play-Offs also.
But at least he's a two-time defending champion (thanks Smalrus); won't do him any good for FedEx ranking but it may spur some form for St.Andrews. Wouldn't bank on it though.

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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 30 Jun 2015, 1:04 pm

Greenbrier winner set to earn 40 owgr pts, only 36 for "France".
Disappointing; think McDool won about 44 pts a couple of yrs ago, just 36 last year though.
Pity they don't award extra points for Ryder Cup winners . . . . . . Wink

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Post by GPB Mon 06 Jul 2015, 7:56 pm

Since Rory has W/D from the Scottish Open, Some projections for the Open Championship have become clearer

The only way Spieth can get the #1 ranking is to win at St Andrews.  If Rory plays St Andrews. He can get the #1 ranking even if he whiffies at John Deere.  If Rory doesn't play St Andrews, Spieth needs a ~top 6 finish at the Deere.

Assuming Rory plays St Andrews, he can prevent Spieth from getting the number one (assuming Spieth Wins) spot.


Jordon wins the Open Championship and Speith:

1. Wins JDC, Rory needs a two way T3 or better to keep #1
2. Finishes solo 2nd at JDC, Rory needs a Solo 5th to keep #1
3. Finishes solo 3rd at JDC, Rory needs a solo 7th to keep #1
4. Finishes solo 10th at JDC, Rory needs a solo 13th to keep #1
5. Finishes 33rd or worse, Rory needs a solo 18th to keep #1


Looks like JDC is going to be level 28 and Scottish is going to be Level 48.  Scottish Open was at Level 52 with Rory.

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Post by kwinigolfer Mon 06 Jul 2015, 8:13 pm

GPB,
Have you seen the reserve list yet?
If they use last week's owgr's as they did for the five entrants last week, I guessed Knox, Streelman, Ramsay, McNeill and Wood might be waiting in line, in that order?
Seen anything?

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Post by GPB Mon 06 Jul 2015, 8:51 pm

No I have not seen anything on alternates for TOC (but I haven't looked either)

I am still trying to find something on the HSBC qualification which you mentioned in the weekly thread.

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Post by kwinigolfer Mon 06 Jul 2015, 9:04 pm

GPB,
Here you go:

https://www.hsbcgolf.com/who-is-qualifying/

I linked it from pgatour.com.

The Bridgestone is more like what the "Champions" used to be, not sure what the hidden agenda is now for Shanghai except more Asian golfers and an effort to eliminate out-of-the-blue winners.

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Post by GPB Mon 06 Jul 2015, 9:10 pm

I think that is the same qualifications that were used for the 2014 edition.   Or at least very similar.

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Post by GPB Wed 08 Jul 2015, 11:24 pm

Here is a concise look at what Spieth has to do to catch Rory, assuming Rory is out through the PGA Tour Championship

Row 1 shows that Spieth is behind by 95.7 pts, right now, before John Deere is played.  

Row 2 shows that Spieth will be behind by 93.7 pts - whatever points he earns at John Deere.

Rory's  Proj.Net PtsScheduled 
DateOWGR AvgSpieth BehindTournament
7/6/201512.6995.72Deere
7/13/201512.5293.73Open Champ
7/20/201512.60105.83Canadian
7/27/201512.42102.78Quicken Loans
8/3/201512.49112.67Bridgestone
8/10/201512.55122.97PGA
8/17/201512.33119.58Wyndham
8/24/201512.39128.78Barclays
8/31/201512.45138.72D-Bank
9/7/201512.22133.69None
9/14/201512.27143.12BMW Champ
9/21/201512.04142.82Tour Champ.

Spieth expected to play in the Bolded Tournaments

In weeks where Rory's OWGR average increases, a tournament is coming off his divisor.  Rory is not going to be losing too much from attrition, since his divisor is going to go from 48 tournaments to 42 tournaments if he misses the remainder of the 2014-15 PGATour schedule.

Deeper analysis of this table reveals a couple of phenomenas.

1. Everyone is reporting that Spieth needs a 7th place at Deere + Win at St Andrews to take the number one spot.  Well that is true for the July 20th ranking.  However, Spieth will be the #1 player on the July 27th ranking with a finish as low as 15th at the Deere, (and a win in St Andrews).

2. However, going one week further, to the August 3rd ranking, unless Spieth finishes in a two way tie 2nd or better at John Deere (and wins Open Champ) Rory will regain the #1 spot.

If Spieth is going to claim the Number 1 ranking in the next couple of months, he is going to have play his butt off, as he can't "Westwood" his way into the Number 1 ranking (attrition).

Furthermore, if Spieth does get #1 ranking after St Andrews, he still has to perform pretty well at B-Stone, PGA, and the Playoff events.

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Post by GPB Sun 12 Jul 2015, 3:07 pm

A Blast for the not so recent past.

K.T. Kim won the JPGA tournament earlier today.  It is second win in the last 5 weeks.  He won in Thailand on the One Asia Tour in week 24.

He got inside the Top 20 back in 2011 and was on the 2011 Int'l Prez Cup team in Australia.

Six weeks ago, he was well outside the Top 300, but after todays win he should be about #165.  He probably needs to go on a huge run on the Japanese Tour to get into 2015 Prez Cup consideration.

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Post by GPB Sun 12 Jul 2015, 7:36 pm

Great win by "Lil Rickie".

He moves up to #5 in the OWGR, just a fraction ahead of Fuyrk.

Americans occupy numbers 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in the OWGR which would mean that #6 would be ineligible for the Olympics if the cutoff date were today.  (as well as numbers 12, 13, and 15)

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Post by GPB Wed 15 Jul 2015, 1:32 am

Rumors coming from the Champions Dinner is that Rory is out until January.

If he doesn't play, Rory's OWGR average will be down around 9.28 at the end of year.

And everyone knows by now that Spieth can become #1 by winning this week.  Second place will not be good enough.

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Post by incontinentia Wed 15 Jul 2015, 8:59 am

If we take it that Spieth's play this year is the level of performance we can expect going forward (he has been playing this well too long for it to be considered a hot streak) then Rory will have a huge battle to get his #1 spot back. I don't think he will- Spieth has too many consistently high finishes.
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Post by super_realist Wed 15 Jul 2015, 9:02 am

Remember that Spieth will have to maintain that standard in 2016. Stenson dominated a couple of years back, and wasn't able to keep it up. His ranking has slumped as a result. It's really rare for a golfer to keep up a good standard for two successive years.

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Post by pedro Wed 15 Jul 2015, 10:23 pm

Spieth is 21 years old. Stenson was 39. Can't see Spieth not dominating in the years to come, even with the occasional slumps.

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Post by GPB Thu 16 Jul 2015, 3:36 am

4 mini tours in Europe will now be getting OWGR recognition.

http://www.owgr.com/news/2015/july/press-release

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Post by kwinigolfer Thu 16 Jul 2015, 4:08 am

Trust there's reciprocal recognition of the Gateway Tours and egolf or whatever the Hooters Tour has morphed into? No report yet.

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Post by GPB Thu 16 Jul 2015, 12:34 pm

Kwini:  There should be.  Because basically they are the same thing.  Primarily funded by the players entry fees.

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Post by GPB Sat 18 Jul 2015, 5:36 pm

Some projection for winning at St Andrews

Willett #13
Dustin #3
Lawrie #31
Adam #3
Warren #15
Zach #11
Louis #7
Streb #16

Paul Dunne could be ranked #46 should he win.

Tiger is falling to at least #254.

Jordan will be #1 with a win.  

PD says Jordan needs a Top 10 finish to have a chance on becoming #1 at B-Stone.  I think it is more like a top 20 finish, but he is better at this type of thing than me.

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Post by sirbenson Sun 19 Jul 2015, 7:32 pm

Where can Paddy go with a win or a top 3 at least?

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Post by GPB Sun 19 Jul 2015, 10:27 pm

sirbenson wrote:Where can Paddy go with a win or a top 3 at least?

Win. .. 23rd at best
Solo 2nd ...Low 40s at best
Solo 3rd .. High 50s

he should be in the B-Stone for winning the Honda, so there should be no urgency to get into the top 50.  And he is in the PGA as a past champ.

Should be Guaranteed to play both Barclays and D-Bank in the playoffs.

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Post by sirbenson Sun 19 Jul 2015, 11:01 pm

Thanks GPB surreal to talk about him being as high in the rankings considering where he was ranked last November

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Post by GPB Sun 19 Jul 2015, 11:29 pm

sirbenson wrote:Thanks GPB surreal to talk about him being as high in the rankings considering where he was ranked last November

Guess that means there is hope then for Woods?   censored

Actually there are 5 players in this weeks Top 100 that started outside the Top 300.  Noren is ranked #71 after starting the year #653.

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Post by kwinigolfer Sun 19 Jul 2015, 11:37 pm

But Alex was injured, and seems to be again, which is more than (most of) the rest can say.

Agree with sirb that the worse the weather on Monday, the better you gotta like St.Padraig. Still love King Louis' chances.

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Post by sirbenson Sun 19 Jul 2015, 11:44 pm

GPB wrote:
sirbenson wrote:Thanks GPB surreal to talk about him being as high in the rankings considering where he was ranked last November

Guess that means there is hope then for Woods?   censored

Actually there are 5 players in this weeks Top 100 that started outside the Top 300.  Noren is ranked #71 after starting the year #653.


I for one think Tiger will turn it around and I do still think he will win majors!

MightY impressive from Alex Noren, not surprised.....his career is a case of injuries suck. Such a talent, still has plenty of time to do himself justice. I thought he was going to be a regular fixture in the top 10/20 (He still can)

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Post by GPB Mon 20 Jul 2015, 9:09 pm

Zach moves to #12, Louis to #13, and Leishman to #27.

J-Rose's T6 moves him from #8 to #4
J-Day's T4 moves him from #9 to #9.Whistle


Spieth has to win B-Stone to become #1.  Unless Rory is out until the end of the year, Spieth is not going to get the #1 ranking via the backdoor.  He is going to have play and play well.

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Post by GPB Sun 26 Jul 2015, 3:48 pm

Willett should get to #24 after his win.

Hearn would get into top 70 with a win (and 14th in the Prez Cup Standings)

Day could get to #3 with a win in the OWGR, but Bubba would have to really play badly today to not keep the #3 spot.

Speaking of Prez Cup Standings, Lahiri moves to #9, leapfrogging both Senden and Ben An with his solo 5th in Switzerland.   And he is #50 (before Canadian Open Results) which should get into B-Stone if he was not already qualified.

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Post by incontinentia Mon 27 Jul 2015, 8:54 am

Will a few top-5's get Spieth the no. 1 spot?
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Post by kwinigolfer Mon 27 Jul 2015, 2:12 pm

Would think Thomas Bjorn is on the threshold of forfeiting his PGA Championship exemption . . . . .

Inco, How long is that piece of string you're dangling? And how long before Rory comes back to regain his rightful place?

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Post by incontinentia Mon 27 Jul 2015, 3:35 pm

Rory McIlroy 12.4196
Jordan Spieth 11.5395

the net is closing...

Am I right in guessing that Rory's 2013 PGA win will expire in a few weeks? But I guess his divisor will reduce from not playing tournaments...I don't know, it's a complicated business Headscratch
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