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PGA Tour: Wells Fargo Championship: Notes from the Ballwasher

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Post by kwinigolfer Wed 13 May 2015, 4:03 pm

First topic message reminder :

1).The "Pete Dye Swing" of the PGA Tour wrapped up at The Players last Sunday, and Dye's courses delivered three fine winners, Furyk at Harbour Town, Rose in New Orleans and a great climax at The Players with Rickie Fowler breaking through. His five-under-par finish was the lowest four-hole conclusion to a tournament by the winner since the Tour started compiling such trivia in 1983.

2).Plenty of good finishes by Europeans also, Sergio obviously, Donaldson (T8) and McIlroy (T8 while losing half a stroke per round to the field on the greens), and Knox and Stenson (both T17 with final round 68's). Disappointing final round from Poulter but I liked his congratulatory tweet to Fowler: "Totally overrated finish. Nice playing mate. Impressive."
Of course, bitter sweet from Poults as he tied for Fowler as the most overrated player on Tour in the infamous poll of his Tour colleagues. Perhaps one of the reasons for this perception is his propensity for poor final rounds. Scoring rank by round this season:
1). 16th
2). 30th
3). 66th
4). 144th.
Such polls are disingenuous to say the least, but one seasonal trend continues:

3).The anchorers are having a very hard time of it this year. Clark and Stadler have been injured most of the year and have not had much chance to boost their career earnings prior to the anchor ban. Others whose form has dipped, regardless of which putting style they're using:
Scott: Ranked 3rd in the world on Jan 1st; now 11th. Putting stat? Plummetted from 55th to 193rd.
Bradley: owgr placing down from 28th to 36th; putting stat from 47th to 140th.
Simpson: owgr placing down from 43rd to 50th; putting stat from 34th to 176th.
But one of the most forthright opponents against the ban, Brendan Steele, has risen in the owgr from 152nd to 95th, despite sliding from 72nd to 101st in the putting stat with his normal-length putter.

4).Rickie Fowler has climbed into the Presidents Cup Team qualifying positions. Current top ten, plus a couple of Captain's Choice suggestions!:
Spieth, Walker, Watson, Furyk, Reed, DJohnson, Fowler, Kuchar, Holmes, Haas (missed two putts inside 3 ft on Sunday and still finished one shot out of the play-off).
Mickelson: 37th.
Woods: 138th.

5).Tim Finchem has pulled another rabbit out of his hat with persuading "Career Builder" to sign up for six years as title sponsor for the old Bob Hope tournament in the California desert.

6).Francesco Molinari finished T10 in the "desert" four months ago offering hope that his foray onto the PGA Tour might be successful. But that's his only Top Ten, he's struggled with wrist injuries, seen his ranking drop and is playing this week in Espana as the European Tour kicks off its European "Swing".
Fellow Ryder Cup veteran Robert Karlsson is no longer a PGA Tour member, but still has a home in Charlotte and plays this week's Wells Fargo Championship; Stenson also plays and you'd think his game was tailor-made for to the Quail Hollow course, but his record here is terrible. Still fancy him though, plus a couple of other local-ish boys, Bill Haas and Fatty De Jonge.
David Lynn lost in a play-off here two years ago. sirbenson's scoop on DaveLynndawg suggested he might have retired; hope he and his family are OK, this seems pretty drastic.

7).The Wells Fargo Quail Hollow course will be the site of the 2017 PGA Championship and 2021 Presidents Cup. It's a Championship course by any standard which seems to suit players of all types. Holmes won last year, Furyk finished second (for the second time), the long and the short of it.
The greens have been resurfaced with bent grass replaced by Bermuda, and there are some fine finishing holes including the driveable 14th (perhaps my favourite short Par-4), the excellent sweeping Par-5 15th which Rory eagled during his 2010 coming-out party, and the 18th, a Par-4 featuring an especially tricky tee shot with a creek running down the left of the hole.

8).US Open "Local Qualifying" is well underway at sites across the United States and the June issue of Golf Digest has a timely US Open preview. A couple of things struck me:
~The course plays long. Very long. Gratuitously long?
The Par-70 Chambers Bay has 12 Par 4's and EIGHT of them are 488 yards and more, at least four of them over 500 yds. What's the point of that? Luke Donald is among those not yet exempt; given a presumed "bombers paradise" like that, why would he care?
~Strongest suggestion that The Country Club in Brookline (suburban Boston) will host the 2022 US Open following Chambers Bay, Oakmont, Erin Hills, Shinnecock, Pebble Beach, Winged Foot, Torrey Pines, (2021), with LA Country Club lined up for 2023.

9).The year's first Champions Tour "Major" is in Alabama this week, the "Regions Tradition" at Shoal Creek where Kenny Perry won last year. Europeans Parnevik, Chapman, Langer, Lyle and Montgomerie are in the field, as is a resurgent Ian Woosnam.

10).Back to The Players to wrap these notes up, and NBC's Television coverage which included the assertion that The Players is the "pre-eminent tournament" in the World. Not exactly, but NBC are understandably miffed that Fox outbid them for the USGA's package of tournaments leaving NBC with The Players but no Majors.
There'll be some "out of the frying pan and into the fire" as Joe Buck (I can't stand him on his specialist sports, hope he's better on Golf) anchors the Fox coverage replacing NBC's excellent Dan Hicks, and the always opinionated Greg Norman takes Johnny Miller's chair. Hopefully the rest of the crew are better than the tired anti-anything not American narrative from NBC and we are spared stuff about the likes of Garcia, Poulter, Westwood etc, "This would be automatic in the Ryder Cup", as another putt slides by. (Will miss Koch and Maltbie though.)
Get over it Johnny, Rolfing, Jacobsen; every two years the Europeans are better than Team USA!
See you at the US Open. Oops. Wait!

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Post by robopz Sun 17 May 2015, 1:19 pm

incontinentia wrote: Does any of the stats gurus out there know what the field average score was yesterday?
Scoring Averages:

R1 - 72.224
R2 - 72.192
R3 - 71.160

Which would put Rory's round 10.16 better than the average...

Going back to 2010, Rory's 62 was actually slightly better against the field average than the 61... 2010 Round 4 scoring average was 72.714... which would put it 10.71 better than the field average that day.

JB Holmes 62 at Doral earlier this year was against a field average that day of 73.356.... or 11.356 shots better.

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Post by GPB Sun 17 May 2015, 1:57 pm

McLaren wrote:
GPB wrote:I would be SHOCKED if Keegan was a teetotaler.

Can I ask why you would be shocked?

Because I think he is Catholic, grew up in New England, loves Boston pro Sports (Patriots, Bruins, Celtics, Red Sox) and is marketing beer.

That is the profile who drinks beer.

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Post by robopz Sun 17 May 2015, 2:03 pm

GPB wrote:
McLaren wrote:
GPB wrote:I would be SHOCKED if Keegan was a teetotaler.

Can I ask why you would be shocked?

Because I think he is Catholic, grew up in New England, loves Boston pro Sports (Patriots, Bruins, Celtics, Red Sox) and is marketing beer.

That is the profile who drinks beer.
PGA Tour: Wells Fargo Championship: Notes from the Ballwasher - Page 2 GBC_Web_BeerFinder_CTA

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Post by robopz Sun 17 May 2015, 2:17 pm

@GPB... {{{NERD ALERT}}}

By the way...  The STDEV's against the Mean for Rory's QH rounds vs JB Holmes at Doral are as follows...  Still not sure I buy this approach, but using this method Rory's round yesterday would be the best of the three

3.61 - Rory's 3rd round 61 at 2015 Quail Hollow (71.16 mean, STDEV=2.817)
3.29 - JB Holmes 1st round 62 at 2015 WGC Doral (73.356 mean, STDEV=3.292)
3.03 - Rory's 4th round 62 at 2010 Quail Hollow. (72.714 mean, STDEV=3.531)


Last edited by robopz on Sun 17 May 2015, 3:04 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by incontinentia Sun 17 May 2015, 2:22 pm

Thanks robo. Furyk's round at the BMW was 12 better than the field, which seems to be the best we've seen.
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Post by GPB Sun 17 May 2015, 2:31 pm

incontinentia wrote:A while back, when JB Holmes shot his phenomenal 62 at Doral we spoke about the great rounds on the PGA tour in recent years. Rory's final round at Quail Hollow in 2010 was mentioned, but surely yesterday's 61 has to be up there too. Does any of the stats gurus out there know what the field average score was yesterday?

Rory's round was 10.16 shots better than avg, and 3.6 Std Deviations below the mean.  Maybe the 2nd or 3rd best round of this decade in terms of Std Deviation.

Furyk's 59 at the BMW Championship has been the best round of recent history.  12.08 shots better than the average and 3.8 Std Deviations below the mean.

We had this discussion back at the Cadillac, here is a post that I made about 2014 scores and Rory's 62 in 2010 at Quail Hollow






GPB wrote:Rory shot 62 at Quail Hollow in 2010

Course Avg that day was: 72.7
Std Deviation: 3.53

10.7 shots below course average
3.03 Std deviations better than mean.

2nd best round that day was Brendon de Jonge at 66, two 67s (Mark Wilson, Rickie Fowler) and Six 68's.


Rounds that are 10+ shots better than the average don't happen often.  It only happened one time in the 2013-14 season.  Here are the Top 10 rounds on the PGATour in 2013-14.

 
   
TourneyPlayerScoreAvgDiff   STDev       SDBM
FargoR2Brendon de Jonge6272.3510.353.063.38
GreenbrierR2Troy Matteson6170.869.863.113.17
BayHillR1Adam Scott6271.839.833.342.95
ZurichR1Ben Martin6271.589.582.943.26
VegasR1J.J. Henry6069.469.463.143.01
FarmersR2Jordan Spieth6372.299.293.772.46
MemorialR1Rory McIlroy6372.169.162.783.29
CIMBR1Ryan Moore6372.149.143.312.76
B-StoneR2Sergio Garcia6170.129.122.673.41
PlayersR1Martin Kaymer6371.998.993.072.93


SDBM = Standard Deviations below mean

Spieth's round doesn't count because he played Torrey North that day and Sergio's was the best in terms of Std Deviations better than the mean.

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Post by robopz Sun 17 May 2015, 2:40 pm

incontinentia wrote:Thanks robo. Furyk's round at the BMW was 12 better than the field, which seems to be the best we've seen.
These guys are incredible once they get it going aren't they?

Rory's 61 is the 4th of the PGAT season (Palmer, Merritt & Thomas the others)... plus there's been thirteen 62's so far (Kelly, Casey, Walker, Leishman, Holmes, Day, Simpson, Brown, Kirk, Herman, Martin, Spieth & H.S Kim)

But still... Rory's 61 yesterday was the most impressive to me of any of the one's I've seen. Seems that most the time really low rounds may represent some awfully good ball striking, but still include some crazy number of holed putts or chips from distance... but Rory's was a ball striking clinic without the need to make bombs from everywhere.

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Post by GPB Sun 17 May 2015, 3:09 pm

Its interesting that three of the best rounds of this decade have happened at Quail Hollow.

Rory's 62 in 2010
DeJonge's 62 in 2014
Rory's 61 yesterday

You wouldn't think a course with such a boring finish could produce such great rounds.

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Post by robopz Sun 17 May 2015, 3:55 pm

GPB wrote:Its interesting that three of the best rounds of this decade have happened at Quail Hollow.

Rory's 62 in 2010
DeJonge's 62 in 2014
Rory's 61 yesterday

You wouldn't think a course with such a boring finish could produce such great rounds.
Great rounds and a finishing stretch of three "Buzz Kill" holes in a row are two different topics... but if you'd like to debate the 2nd again here... I'm game... balls in your court.

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Post by GPB Sun 17 May 2015, 4:08 pm

Three domestic tournaments thus far on the Japanese Tour. Two Aussies (Michael Hendry and Adam Bland) and one Korean, IJ Jang) have won these tournaments.  Adam Bland won the one today.

Of the 91 players playing the Japanese Tour who had an OWGR rating.

60 of them were Japanese
15 Korean
7 Aussies
9 Others (China (2), New Zealand (2), Philippines (1), Thailand (2), USA (2))

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Post by pedro Sun 17 May 2015, 5:11 pm

Wouldn't it be more correct to compare R1 and R2 scores, and R3 and R4 scores seperately (in terms of std dev and mean score)?
The spread in R3 and R4 would be in smaller due to a smaller field, just as R3 and R4 players would be in better form?

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Post by GPB Sun 17 May 2015, 6:15 pm

pedro wrote:Wouldn't it be more correct to compare R1 and R2 scores, and R3 and R4 scores seperately (in terms of std dev and mean score)?
The spread in R3 and R4 would be in smaller due to a smaller field, just as R3 and R4 players would be in better form?

yes.

I think the means and Std Devaitions in R3 and R4 would be better and tighter not due to a smaller field, but a better field, as the less talented and off-form players would be weeded out.

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Post by pedro Sun 17 May 2015, 9:40 pm

To judge from the activity level on this board this weekend, the quail must be a bit hollow.
Or maybe it's just post Players fatigue.

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Post by McLaren Sun 17 May 2015, 10:02 pm

Pedro, I am just tuning into the golf for the first time this weekend. Would have liked to have watched more but was subjected to the avengers last night.
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Post by McLaren Sun 17 May 2015, 10:16 pm

What did Rory's drive on 16 bounce on? It rocketed forward.
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Post by pedro Sun 17 May 2015, 10:21 pm

McLaren wrote:What did Rory's drive on 16 bounce on?  It rocketed forward.
364 yds!!
Did his ball soak in deer antler spray?

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Post by I'm never wrong Sun 17 May 2015, 11:02 pm

Was that a four hour round by Rory? For some reason I think it started at 18.45 hours UK time and finished at 22.45. Am I correct? If so, that's not bad for pro golf.

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Post by super_realist Mon 18 May 2015, 7:54 am

What a tournament from the Pubester. Jordan who?

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Post by pedro Mon 18 May 2015, 10:50 am

Since the pubester is skipping the Memorial will he be scouting at Chambers Bay in stead? The USGA try spread the rumour that you won't stand a chance if you play it just walking off the street...?

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Post by McLaren Mon 18 May 2015, 10:56 am

Pedro

Rory has said he will only play 3 practice rounds, starting on the weekend before the event. The pubester (and Davie please look away now) responded to the claims you need many practice rounds with “What’s Mike Davis’ handicap?”.
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Post by Davie Mon 18 May 2015, 11:07 am

I've seen Chambers Bay on an online simulator game and it seems pretty awesome from that - major elevation changes and tricky green complexes.

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Post by pedro Mon 18 May 2015, 12:07 pm

McLaren wrote:Pedro

Rory has said he will only play 3 practice rounds, starting on the weekend before the event.  The pubester (and Davie please look away now) responded to the claims you need many practice rounds with “What’s Mike Davis’ handicap?”.
ha! You go get it Rory!

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Post by Shotrock Mon 18 May 2015, 1:27 pm

That was an amazing performance.

Well done Rory!!

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Post by super_realist Mon 18 May 2015, 1:31 pm

Shotrock wrote:That  was  an  amazing  performance.

Well done Rory!!

Imagine what he could do at The Old Course then SR? 254 coming up.

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Post by McLaren Mon 18 May 2015, 1:38 pm

Did anyone catch Rory on periscope last night. It appears he did a session while on his private jet and took fan questions.


It's going to look even worse for the PGAT banning Wei for periscope use if the top players are embracing it as a way to communicate with fans.
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Post by I'm never wrong Mon 18 May 2015, 1:46 pm

Ian Poulter did one earlier in the day sitting in a buggy before going out on a range somewhere.

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Post by super_realist Mon 18 May 2015, 1:47 pm

Not really Mac, Wei did it on course, which contravened the PGA rules, McIlroy did it in his own time. It's none of the PGA's business.

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Post by Shotrock Mon 18 May 2015, 1:50 pm

Super - I'm heading to London tomorrow and playing golf in the Surrey area. Just like Rory ... except for the fact it would take an extra 3 minutes or more to walk to his drive as compared to mine!

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Post by super_realist Mon 18 May 2015, 1:52 pm

Hope the weather improves for you SR. Played TOC yesterday and a 254 was certainly not on the cards.

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Post by GPB Mon 18 May 2015, 1:52 pm

I know Ladies Golf is not discussed much here, but anyone know why this weeks LET tournament is going from Sun-Wed?

Its being shown live here in the US on Golf Channel.

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Post by kwinigolfer Mon 18 May 2015, 1:54 pm

Missed most of Rory's exhibition over the weekend, but WOW!
We talk about golfers having an extra gear, but Rory's got a whole other gear box.

As for Chambers Bay, it seems the chatter so far has been about the greens. I don't remember anything about the US Amateur that was played there, but have only seen one endorsement of the course - and that from Peter Uehlein who won the thing.


Sr,
Have yourself a great trip. Said Hi! to LH for you on Saturday afternoon - he was just heading out to play . . . .

GPB,
I read something about the Turks thinking they'd get more exposure - sounds a load of Caicos to me.

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Post by I'm never wrong Mon 18 May 2015, 1:56 pm

GPB wrote:I know Ladies Golf is not discussed much here, but anyone know why this weeks LET tournament is going from Sun-Wed?

Its being shown live here in the US on Golf Channel.

Looks like it's running Live now.

CLICK HERE

Edit. Quote from the webpage. In addition to doubling this prize fund to €500,000 we are this year finishing the tournament on Wednesday 20th May instead of the traditional Sunday finish, when we are competing with so many other major sporting events for TV coverage. This will give us a massive increase Television exposure worldwide with Live Coverage on Sky Sport and the Golf Channel plus many others. The event will be broadcast to more than 50 countries.

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Post by GPB Mon 18 May 2015, 2:38 pm

The 2010 US Amateur was played at Chambers Bay.  The US Amateur format is 312 players play 36 holes of Stroke Play to pair the field down to 64 players of match play.  Here is a distribution of the Qualifying Scores played at Chambers Bay:

Below70 ... 4
70 - 72 . . 13
73 - 75 . . 54
76 - 78 . . 76
79 - 81 . . 78
82 - 84 . . 41
85 - 89 . . 39
90&above...6

The average score was 79.2 at Chambers Bay, and 75.3 at the other Qualifying course. Obviously the talent level at the US Amateur is a few notches below the talent level of the US Open.  But the USGA could setup CB ridiculously difficult.

==========

Here are some notable players who played the US Amateur in 2010 and what their qualifying scores at Chambers Bay

Day 1
Patrick Rodgers 69
Patrick Reed 68
Patrick Cantlay 69
Morgan Hoffmann 73
Hudson Swafford 71
Derek Ernst 77

Day 2
Zac Blair 83
Scott Langley 74
Peter Uihlien 72  => Won the 2010 US Amateur
Nick Taylor 75
Max Homa 76
Justin Thomas 69
John Peterson 73
Daniel Berger 83
Jordan Spieth 83
 
Of the players above, only Spieth, Reed, and Hoffmann are the only player above exempt into US Open. Berger (68th) and Thomas (75th) are very close to being exempt.

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Post by kwinigolfer Mon 18 May 2015, 2:49 pm

Good news for Irish golf fans:
Seamus Power made a hole-in-one on the web.com Tour this week and drove away in a BMW X4, whatever that may look like.
That helped him to a T10, and up to 83rd in their moneylist. Doesn't sound great but hopefully that'll be the start of a good run of form for him, with the possibility of a PGA Tour pot of gold at the end of his rainbow.

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Post by Shotrock Mon 18 May 2015, 3:35 pm

Kwin - I would like to have seen the look on Leonard's face when mentioned!

Super - Yes, hoping for accommodating weather, but a good time will be had I'm sure.


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Post by navyblueshorts Mon 18 May 2015, 3:38 pm

Bob_the_Job wrote:Good start for McIlroy on the trickier back 9

Do Nike not realise that their current strap line is very open to interpretation - "Nike Vapor.  There's always better."??
Laugh Good spot that Bob. Someone in Nike's advertising department needs to be spoken to....
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Post by GPB Mon 18 May 2015, 5:41 pm

It looks like Patrick Reed W/Ded from Wentworth and is now playing Colonial.

Anyone got info from your side of the pond?


And Thanks to I'm Never Wrong for the information on the LET tournament.

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Post by Bob_the_Job Mon 18 May 2015, 5:53 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:?..in a BMW X4, whatever that may look like

God-awful. Well done him though.

And we'll done Rory. Best player in the world turns up, brings something close to his A game, wins. I shouldn't be surprised but I still sort of was at the margin, and I'm fairly sure he's another gear or two to go.
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Post by raycastleunited Tue 19 May 2015, 11:04 am

Yeah, I felt Rory was cruising on Sunday, he could have turned up the heat and won by another 3 or 4 shots if he wanted to. He knew he had it wrapped up and looked like he was just messing around on 17 and 18.

When he's on it, no one can touch him.

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Post by McLaren Tue 19 May 2015, 11:12 am

Just to prove how obsessed I am with her I am giving you the heads up that Stephanie Wei is currently periscoping on the practice ground at Wentworth. So far she has talked to Donald, Matteo and Colsaerts.
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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 19 May 2015, 3:38 pm

It seems Patrick Reed has opted not to play either of his European Tour "commitments", w/d from the Irish Open as well as the PGA.
Sponsors must wish he'd never said he'd play.

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Post by McLaren Tue 19 May 2015, 3:59 pm

kwini

See the article I posted in the rory/wentworth thread.


Do you have any info on the claimed family issue, and whether he will actually bother with his European tour membership. Is he really going to cross the pond enough times post US open and before the play offs to keep his card?

He will have to add the Scottish open at the very least, and he will be across anyway.
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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 19 May 2015, 4:09 pm

Corrigan's confusing his tournaments; Reed is not down to play in "Dallas".

Dunno the Reed "family" story but it could be down to his wife's health, caddie's visa, any of a number of reasons. Perhaps he consulted robo and GPB on the tax implications?

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Post by McLaren Tue 19 May 2015, 4:19 pm

Kwini

To us Brits fort worth may as well be Dallas. Reed is definitely listed in the crown plaza field.

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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 19 May 2015, 4:23 pm

No doubt, Mac. But two entirely separate tournaments, not to mention cultures.

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Post by McLaren Tue 19 May 2015, 4:30 pm

The crown plaza is played at the colonial.
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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 19 May 2015, 4:40 pm

Mac,
Thanks for stating the bleeding obvious.
I just said "Reed is not down to play in "Dallas", which remains accurate unless something's changed in the last few minutes.

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Post by navyblueshorts Tue 19 May 2015, 5:11 pm

McLaren wrote:Kwini

To us Brits fort worth may as well be Dallas.  Reed is definitely listed in the crown plaza field.

Speak for yourself!
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