2015 French Open Draw Discussion Thread

[Henman Bill]

2015 French Open Draw

Date: Friday, May 22

Time: 10.30 London am/ 11:30 a.m. Paris time. (so Americas posters should be able to get the draw when waking up Friday morning).

Where: Roland Garros, Paris, France

Live Stream: Roland Garros YouTube channel

[Henman Bill]

Seedings to follow rankings. I assume this week's rankings:

1 Djoko
2 Fed
3 Murray
4 Berdych
5 Nishi
6 Raonic
7 Rafa
8 Ferrer
9 Warwinka

Copied that from here http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Singles.aspx as could not find the seedings.

Breaking news: Raonic out https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/28189624/injured-milos-raonic-withdraws-from-french-open/ so Rafa presumably seeded 6 now, Ferrer 7, Warwinka 8.

Also Ryan Harrison out, Laura Robson out, any others?

Krygios/Simon? Unknown? http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-21/nick-kyrgios-injured-in-nice-days-before-french-open/6485560

[Silver]

It's a shame for Raonic - I did think that two weeks was a short period of time to recover from foot surgery. I'm sure he's looking to the grass season, where he'll be more competitive.

Wawrinka the huge beneficiary there.

[temporary21]

Wawrinka at 8 is huge for both him and his opponents. Cant face him till the quarters nows

[Henman Bill]

Ok, I am going to post here the bookies odds, and we will see whether the draw makes any difference.

Novak is at 8/11 with most bookmakers today, including all the big ones.
Rafa is at 3-1 with the majority, and the minority are split either side, so 3-1 is the average.
Murray is at mostly 8-1 with a few 9-1.
Federer is mostly at 18-1 or 20-1 with a few at 14-1.
Nishikori is ranging 12-1 to >20-1, average and most common 16-1.
Warwinka ranging from 14 to 40.
Berduch ranking 33-50 mostly.
Ferrer ranging 33-50 mostly as well.

[CAS]

Federer at 20-1 is extremely tempting but I think that's thinking with my heart !

[Henman Bill]

I think Federer at 20-1 is really good value. His problem has always been Nadal and this year it's even plausible that someone could win the tournament without having to play him.

Even IF Federer does play him, it's even possible he could beat him. Unlikely perhaps, but if Warwinka, Murray even Fognini can do it....

Also, Federer would arguably have a better chance in the match up against Djokovic than Murray. Yes it's clay so Djoko is favourite but it can happen. FO 2011.

And Federer's form and fitness looks good enough to avoid an early round shock defeat. Of course, at his age it's always a risk.

Still, I am not going to actually the bet, it's not THAT tempting. Maybe if he gets a good draw and the odds don't decrease.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Fed to beat Rafa at RG? He couldnt even beat Novak in BO3, he can beat Rafa in BO5?? 2011 was some four years ago, hes not going to beat Novak again, or beat Rafa.

Fed would want Stan or Ferrer in his quarter, and hope for Berdych in his half, and all three of Novak/Murray/Rafa in the same half. If that happens, we may see Fed in the final.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Look for Rafa to play the way he played the 10 matches he won on clay and not the 3 that he lost badly. Its the FO, BO5 and no night matches, so Rafa wont need to deal with change of conditions from day to night, something he couldnt handle well these days.

[FedsFan]

Fed to beat Rafa at RG?  He couldnt even beat Novak in BO3, he can beat Rafa in BO5?? 2011 was some four years ago, hes not going to beat Novak again, or beat Rafa.

Fed would want Stan or Ferrer in his quarter, and hope for Berdych in his half, and all three of Novak/Murray/Rafa in the same half. If that happens, we may see Fed in the final.

Couldn't agree with you more on this. Fed has not been too successful vs Djokovic on clay and his best match was that SF in 2011. Were the courts/balls slightly different as well?
EVen if Nadal is playing poorly he hits top form when he plays Federer. I am wondering whether Raonic pulling out and the seeds changing is a strange twist of fate for the now unofficial top 4 i.e Djoko, Fed, Nadal and Murray.

Loking at the top 9 or 10 I think the first big casualty will be Federer not to make the second week and Wawrinka to follow.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Fed can make the second week, I'm almost sure of that. He may not beat Novak or Rafa, but he can beat the rest. Like I said, if Rafa and Novak end up in the same half, it's likely that Fed will make the final. I do feel that Fed is still good enough to beat Murray on clay should they meet.

Oh, there is Kei, but I think the big four are all better than Kei, but it's interesting to see where Kei ends up in the draw, besides Rafa.

[Born Slippy]

Predictions for the draw?

I'm going for:

- Fed and Murray in the same half;
- Rafa to be in Fed's quarter;
- Kei to be in Berdych's quarter;
- Stan to be in Novak's quarter.

[CaledonianCraig]

Obviously, I'd say the players to avoid in the quarters are Rafa and Kei.

[HM Murdock]

Where can the draw be watched? I can't see it on the youtube channel.

[CaledonianCraig]

Well a stinker of a draw for Andy Murray. He has been drawn to face Rafa in the quarters and Novak in the semis.

[CaledonianCraig]

Well a stinker of a draw for Andy Murray. He has been drawn to face Rafa in the quarters and Novak in the semis.

I think that's a knee-jerk reaction actually as I think Novak plays Rafa in the QF's if both get there. Kyrgios also awaits in the 3rd Round.

[sirfredperry]

Andy M, Rafa and Djoko all in the same half, with Djoko and Rafa due to meet in the quarters. With Rafa and Djoko being the finalists last year, somebody's going to lose out this year.

[HM Murdock]

I knew Novak would cop the Rafa quarter!

I'm actually not too bothered about that. Novak will be less nervous and Rafa may well still be working through the gears. I'd rather face Rafa in a QF than a F.

So Novak could conceivably be facing a QF/SF/F of Rafa/Andy/Roger to get his maiden RG title!

Tough, but why not?

Draws rarely seem to pan out as expected these days though.

[summerblues]

Fed big winner in the draw. Also Nishi who should now have a decent chance to make the final.

Top half is quite brutal - Nole, Rafa and Andy arguably the three best clay courters this season. Ferrer is also there.

[Jahu]

As expected, RG want Fed on the Final with Djoko, to break the Nadal decade boring streak.

[bogbrush]

Nadal certainly feeling the consequences of dropping out of the top 4. A loss in that quarter would see a huge loss of points and out of the top 10.

[Belovedluckyboy]

See, I know Fed would most likely make the final, he has Kei to worry about though, but Kei has to get past a Berdych who is playing well these days.

Rafa vs Novak in the QF? If Rafa is playing well he can get pass Novak. While Rafa may be working through the gears to reach the QF, the same could be said of Novak too. Novak has potentially Tomic and then Gasquet or Anderson to worry about first. Murray vs Ferrer, I think I'm not sure Murray will win that one, so I think fingers crossed for all these potential matches.

Rafa going for ten is certainly an interesting streak, for I think no one will get near that stats, for a long long time. It's certainly not boring to witness this greatness in our life time, for we may not have a second chance to witness anything like this.

[Belovedluckyboy]

It doesn't matter that Rafa drops out of top ten, for he'll get back into it come the second half of the season, when he has nothing to defend! He'll most likely end the year within top eight, given the race points he's already has now.

[Silver]

That is a disastrous draw. It really sucks to see Novak, Rafa and Andy all on the same side. I know it's random and was always possible, but it's a bit disappointing to see it happen.

I think with this draw you have to say it's Federer's last chance at winning RG again. Couldn't be much better.

[banbrotam]

Well a stinker of a draw for Andy Murray. He has been drawn to face Rafa in the quarters and Novak in the semis.

Thanks to the lazy BBC, I made the same mistake!!

[banbrotam]

I still don't see Fed reaching the final. I think at the latter stages of a slam as tiring as RG, the likes of Nish or Berd man could stop him. I'm happier with Murray potentially facing Ferrer in the QF (from what I can make out) than those two

Murray's big problem is Kyrgios in the R32. Although I'd back Murray over five, it's arguably the hardest match as this stage

Semi's is still fine for me given Andy's past record

[HM Murdock]

That is a disastrous draw. It really sucks to see Novak, Rafa and Andy all on the same side.

I like it.

If Novak is to win RG, my preference is that he goes through Rafa to do it and the draw makes that more likely.

[Guest]

I am salivating at this draw!! What a victory for Novak if he had to go through the other 3 to win this.

[FedsFan]

I still don't see Fed reaching the final. I think at the latter stages of a slam as tiring as RG, the likes of Nish or Berd man could stop him. I'm happier with Murray potentially facing Ferrer in the QF (from what I can make out) than those two

Murray's big problem is Kyrgios in the R32. Although I'd back Murray over five, it's arguably the hardest match as this stage

Semi's is still fine for me given Andy's past record

I agree about Federer. BO5 on clay is a tough ask in this stage of his career. His best chance was last year Wimbledon and I cannot see him being that close again in terms of winning another slam. The issue now is that Federer seems to stumble on the most unlikely of oppenents in slams, Seppi in Melbourne, Cilic in NY, Stakhovsky at Wimbledon to name a few.
As has been the case the last couple of years ar RG, it will be Djoko or Nadal for the title and once their QF is done and dusted the next two rounds are a formality.

[temporary21]

If Rafa dropped out of the top ten it would t matter he's got half a years worth of free points to make it up. It might help him to start again. Draw wise it's very very lop sided means one packed day and a relatively light one the next.  Anyone willing to put up potential routes for the big guys? Especially interested to see if Rogers got anything tricky in 4th round or quarters

[HM Murdock]

I am salivating at this draw!! What a victory for Novak if he had to go through the other 3 to win this.

My thoughts exactly.

It has the potential to be a wonderful victory, a career highlight.

If the draw turns out to be too tough, well them's the breaks. He's had some easy draws and not taken advantage, so no complaints from me about a tough one this time round.

The thought occurs that should Andy win, he will, after just 3 slam wins, be three quarters of the way through a career slam, with remaining event being one where he is a 4 time finalist! He would probably have a better chance than Novak of completing the set.

[temporary21]

Also poor Laura. Just how bad is that arm injury?

[Haddie-nuff]

I am salivating at this draw!! What a victory for Novak if he had to go through the other 3 to win this.

I can understand that.. I have watched Rafa's chances get slimmer by the minute, this clay court season, and this is a do or die draw for him. But, if he could pull this rabbit out of the bag, then let no one say he is not the King of Clay.
It would be a fitting way for him to earn his tenth crown.  But as sure as God made little apples he will have to dig very very deep.

[HM Murdock]

I am salivating at this draw!! What a victory for Novak if he had to go through the other 3 to win this.

I can understand that.. I have watched Rafa's chances get slimmer by the minute, this clay court season, and this is a do or die draw for him. But, if he could pull this rabbit out of the bag, then let no one say he is not the King of Clay.
It would be a fitting way for him to earn his tenth crown.  But as sure as God made little apples he  will have to dig very very deep.

I agree, Haddie. Whatever way this draw breaks, the story is great.

Novak going through the clay GOAT to win his first RG.

Rafa rising from the canvas to defeat his biggest rival and World #1 to claim a 10th title.

Andy beating either the world #1 or the clay GOAT to grab an against the odds RG.

Wonderful sporting narrative.

(Sorry Fed fans, I'm not ignoring your guy, I just haven't looked at that side of the draw yet!)

[bogbrush]

That is a disastrous draw. It really sucks to see Novak, Rafa and Andy all on the same side.

I like it.

If Novak is to win RG, my preference is that he goes through Rafa to do it and the draw makes that more likely.

I agree; and what glory if he goes through them all to take it!

As a Fed fan, the heart jumps at the thought of him meeting an utterly knackered opponent in the final but the head says Federer won't make it to that stage anyway.

[Haddie-nuff]

That is a disastrous draw. It really sucks to see Novak, Rafa and Andy all on the same side.

I like it.

If Novak is to win RG, my preference is that he goes through Rafa to do it and the draw makes that more likely.

I agree; and what glory if he goes through them all to take it!

As a Fed fan, the heart jumps at the thought of him meeting an utterly knackered opponent in the final but the head says Federer won't make it to that stage anyway.

AND what glory it would be if Rafa could defend it... double edged sword

[Silver]

Fair enough HM, I can understand. I just wish that it was a bit more balanced, I suppose.

[Jahu]

Agree that it would be amazing if Djoko beats Rafa, Andy and Fed and win RG, well worth the wait.

OMG GOAT!!!

[Silver]

Agree that it would be amazing if Djoko beats Rafa, Andy and Fed and win RG, well worth the wait.

OMG GOAT!!!

That would be crazy. I want to see it happen!

[Jahu]

Yeah would be quite a little Delpo USO beating Nadal and Fed.

Djoko with his little animal mentality, would quit tennis immediately to not ruin his records

[Belovedluckyboy]

Yep, and what a way for Rafa to win his 10th FO, to beat Dimi, Novak, Murray and then Fed in that order.

[Haddie-nuff]

[Jahu]

....sine we are day dreaming...

How about Fed beats a tired Nadal in the Final, after Nadal beats DJoko in a 5-6h SF?

I think Nadal would love that loss from Fed, more then a SF loss from Djoko.

[sirfredperry]

I wouldn't get too excited by the draw. How often do seemingly tough draws open up due to unforeseen results? What is certain is that either Djoko or Rafa is going to lose a load of points. One of them will absorb the loss. For the other it will mean a big dip in ranking.

[sirfredperry]

I wouldn't get too excited by the draw. How often do seemingly tough draws open up due to unforeseen results? What is certain is that either Djoko or Rafa is going to lose a load of points. One of them will absorb the loss. For the other it will mean a big dip in ranking.

[CaledonianCraig]

Well done to Kyle Edmund on qualifying for the French Open.

[Silver]

Craig, are you a fan of Mr. Edmund by any chance?

[Jahu]

Who is editing my terrible wording? Do you know how long it takes for me to compile e sentence?

[HM Murdock]

As a Fed fan, the heart jumps at the thought of him meeting an utterly knackered opponent in the final but the head says Federer won't make it to that stage anyway.

I think the draw looks very navigable for Mr Federer.

I'd say he starts as favourite, albeit sometimes a narrow one, against anyone in that half.

As is always the case nowadays, the threat to him is probably less from top tenners than it is from someone like Monfils having an unusually good day.

Alas, I think it unlikely any of his opponents will be knackered in the final. They're all fit and will have had a day's rest.

If he's to win RG#2, he'll have to do it the hard way!

[CaledonianCraig]

Craig, are you a fan of Mr. Edmund by any chance?

No not to that extent of posting the same message multiple times. The forum froze and I pressed send as frustration grew but mods should be deleting them soon.

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