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Dustin Johnson will he or won't he win a major(s)?

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Will DJ win a major?

Dustin Johnson will he or won't he win a major(s)?  Vote_lcap62%Dustin Johnson will he or won't he win a major(s)?  Vote_rcap 62% 
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Dustin Johnson will he or won't he win a major(s)?  Vote_lcap21%Dustin Johnson will he or won't he win a major(s)?  Vote_rcap 21% 
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Total Votes : 29
 
 
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Post by sirbenson Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:25 pm

After so many close calls to date, the question is will he eventually get over the line to get the major win(s) his talent undoubtedly deserves? He has had great chances to close the deal at at the US Open 2010, PGA 2010, The Open 2011 and now the US Open 2015.

Is this a case similar to Mickelson where once he wins his first he goes on to win many majors? Or will he be alongside the likes of Garcia, Westwood, Montgomerie etc in terms of those who have never won a major

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Post by kwinigolfer Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:32 pm

Too good a golfer not to. As is Sergio!

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Post by sirbenson Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:36 pm

Agree regarding DJ Kwini, he has the ability to win a major by 6 or 7 shots in my opinion. It wasn't just 18 where he lost it yesterday. He missed 6 putts inside 10 feet on the back 9 alone apparently.


Don't agree regarding Garcia, I'd be hugely surprised if he ever won one.

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Post by sirbenson Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:37 pm

I see DJ winning majors and not just one!

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Post by super_realist Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:50 pm

He is going to be a pick of mine for St.Andrews even though his odds will be rubbish. For a guy like him, that course is just perfect. Just stand up and smash it and you'll be safe. Lot's of par 4's to hit. Nothing more than half a wedge if he misses.

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Post by George1507 Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:13 pm

He will win a major, probably a few, but I doubt it'll happen at St Andrews. If it's windy, if it's hard and running miles - he won't cope well with that. He'll be a better bet after another year of experience.

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Post by kwinigolfer Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:23 pm

14th in 2010 after a drive ob right on his 72nd hole.
Don't write him off!

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Post by pedro Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:44 pm

DJ will win a major. And why not Whistling Straits!?

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Post by Davie Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:54 pm

Don't think he will. Too fragile between the ears. Another Westwood

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Post by McLaren Mon Jun 22, 2015 8:19 pm

I voted yes.


Lets just hope he has a few putts in hand when he gets to the 72nd. Kwini scalded me for suggesting DJ chocked, but I stand by that label for what happened yesterday. When you have a 3 foot putt to get into a major play off and miss. That is the very definition of choke. But clearly I think he will manage to avoid chocking at some point in the future.
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Post by SmithersJones Mon Jun 22, 2015 8:22 pm

What has stopping planes from rolling got to do with anything Mac?
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Post by I'm never wrong Mon Jun 22, 2015 8:38 pm

McLaren wrote: But clearly I think he will manage to avoid chocking at some point in the future.
Whereas if you check the Urban Dictionary definition.......hmmm. Shocked Whistle

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Post by kwinigolfer Mon Jun 22, 2015 8:48 pm

Mac,
Did Spieth choke on #17?
Did DJ choke on the 2-footer he whiffed early in Round 3?
Lots of choking (and chocking) if missed putts inside four feet defined it.
His mistake was letting his eagle attempt drift 4 feet by; he admitted afterwards that if he hadn't seen Jason Day's putt right before him he'd have hit his eagle putt even harder.

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Post by JAS Mon Jun 22, 2015 8:59 pm

I'm of the "He's too good not to school of thought" When he does it it'll be a Kaymer at Pinehurst type effort i.e. he'll blow the field away in the first couple of days then hang on. He's always going to have that power until well into his 40s and beyond and so has years to bullet proof his under pressure putting. Yesterday may have scarred him mentally, we shall see.

Each one that slipped from his grasp has been for a different reason. His capitulation at Pebble was awful i.e. the chipping brain fart on the 2nd starting the complete unravelling but it didn't seem to adversely affect him as later in the summer he contended again only to fall victim to Whlstling Straight's disguised bunkers. RSJ was a big block OB (was he going for a par 5 in 2?). Yesterday it was the putter that let him down but to be fair on very unpredictable greens.

Being in the Butch stable now will also help. I do wonder if he would have converted any of the 2010/2011 chances had he been with Butch at the time. Finally of course, he's apparently over his self destructive demons.

The only negatives I see is either the potential for him slipping back off the wagon or missing a few more golden chances and building up a monkey on his back.

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Post by McLaren Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:23 pm

Kwini


It seems to me that you are asking for a definition of choking, in the sporting sense of course. My first attempt at a simple definition would go something like this, choking is blowing an extremely good chance of winning while playing sport. Most people would use choke in circumstances where normal levels of performance would secure the win. Suggesting that mental weakness will prevent the competitor from winning.


It is the notion that the competitor is not asked to do anything extraordinary to achieve the success that made it the appropriate term to use when labeling DJ's missed putt. He only had to make a 3 foot relatively flat putt and messed it up.

I am happy to reassess the label applied if you provide a better definition for choking.
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Post by monty junior Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:33 pm

Without doubt, though i feel he was easily the best player during the US open but kind of just frittered it away. I don't think he'll be another Monty,Garcia and Westwood because unlike those guys he can overpower the course when he's driving it well which for his power he usually does. 

I think if he win's one soon he can win 4 or 5, similar to career to Els or someone like that without maybe the relentless winning habit from week to week in Ernie's prime.

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Post by navyblueshorts Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:13 am

McLaren wrote:...It seems to me that you are asking for a definition of choking, in the sporting sense of course. My first attempt at a simple definition would go something like this, choking is blowing an extremely good chance of winning while playing sport.  Most people would use choke in circumstances where normal levels of performance would secure the win.  Suggesting that mental weakness will prevent the competitor from winning.  


It is the notion that the competitor is not asked to do anything extraordinary to achieve the success that made it the appropriate term to use when labeling DJ's missed putt.  He only had to make a 3 foot relatively flat putt and messed it up.  

I am happy to reassess the label applied if you provide a better definition for choking.
Too general Mac. There's any number of reasons he might have missed that putt. Choking, IMNSHO, is specifically when nerves take over and negatively affect performance. Do you know that's why DJ missed? No, of course not. Saying someone "choked" is a pathetic term that's normally the recourse of one who never has been in such a situation and never will be.
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Post by super_realist Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:57 am

There's a lot more reasons for missing a putt than choking.
You simply can't hole every putt, so to put a missed putt down as choking, simply because of when it happened is silly. Are you choking if you miss a putt on the 6th hole of the first round? No.


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Post by MontysMerkin Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:26 am

Yeah, but the pressure of holing a putt on the last to win (or get in playoff) could easily increase the odds of a miss.
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Post by super_realist Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:30 am

Indeed, I'm simply saying that missing a putt at a crucial time isn't necessarily down to bottling it. There are other things which affect it. Just as holing a putt doesn't mean you've held your nerve, could have jumped onto the right line after a misread.

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Post by monty junior Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:36 am

I'd give him a pass on missing a short putt on those atrocious greens on the 72nd hole! 

Anyway i thought it was the best major since the 2011 Masters, great viewing.

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Post by MontysMerkin Tue Jun 23, 2015 11:02 am

I thought his arse fell out as majestically as LW1's has done on occasion.
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Post by SmithersJones Tue Jun 23, 2015 11:18 am

I'd define choking as hitting a shot that's significantly out of character with a player's normal standard or shot type. DJ's push OB on 14 at RSG, Grace's similar shot on 16 on Sunday and I'm afraid DJ's 3 putt on 18 would all fit that description. That's why I voted no. Then again, Langer did the same at RSG, and you could even argue he choked on the 18th at Kiawah, and he won majors so it is possible to overcome these things. It's difficult to identify single shots like those for say Westwood, particularly since 3 putting is not at all uncommon for him!
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Post by JAS Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:12 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
McLaren wrote:...It seems to me that you are asking for a definition of choking, in the sporting sense of course. My first attempt at a simple definition would go something like this, choking is blowing an extremely good chance of winning while playing sport.  Most people would use choke in circumstances where normal levels of performance would secure the win.  Suggesting that mental weakness will prevent the competitor from winning.  


It is the notion that the competitor is not asked to do anything extraordinary to achieve the success that made it the appropriate term to use when labeling DJ's missed putt.  He only had to make a 3 foot relatively flat putt and messed it up.  

I am happy to reassess the label applied if you provide a better definition for choking.
Too general Mac. There's any number of reasons he might have missed that putt. Choking, IMNSHO, is specifically when nerves take over and negatively affect performance. Do you know that's why DJ missed? No, of course not. Saying someone "choked" is a pathetic term that's normally the recourse of one who never has been in such a situation and never will be.
Tend to agree and would add to that by saying that those who are so keen to label others chokers know deep down within themselves that if ever they did get into such positions then they know that's exactly the fate that would befall them. So they resign themselves to mediocrity and be safe in the knowledge that they can belittle others efforts to make themselves feel better. Sad really

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Post by McLaren Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:41 pm

Jas

Bit of the old ad hominem there don't you think?


Whether or not I can cope under pressure with a chance to win while playing golf has nothing to do with DJ choking or not. He had a 3 footer to force a play off and missed. That seems about as close to my definition of choke as possible. Navy then added to that definition that in order to be categorized as choking we need to be sure that nerves took over and caused the drop in performance. There is no way to prove whether it was nerves or otherwise that caused DJ to miss. If we are to follow Navy's definition of choke I don't think we can ever confidently label any sporting failure as choking because the evidence for mental weakness will always be missing. If however we soften the definition to mine, then choking is a fair label for DJ's miss as pro's probably hole well over 90% of 3 footers, and therefore he failed to perform at the normal level expected.
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Post by Nay Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:00 pm

Dustin Johnson average from 3-5 foot is 85%

Now if Johnson was putting above that level for the tournament, statistically he is going to miss one regadless of the situation.

As Over his career he misses 15% of these putts. Once agan you need more evidence to say for certain of he failed to perform to the expected level


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Post by pedro Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:04 pm

This was a 2 footer? So more likely 95%. But he missed 6 or 7 putts inside 10 ft on the back 9, so this may indicate his putting wasn't up to snuff that day. But since DJ is known as a choker it's fair to assume he actually choked on 18.

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Post by kwinigolfer Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:16 pm

Johnson is the only golfer who has won on the PGA Tour each of the past eight years. Which presumably makes everyone else more of a choker than him.
(The official length of his missed putt was reported as 4 ft. Regardless, he certainly missed shorter putts during the tournament. Choking early perhaps?)

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Post by Davie Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:44 pm

McLaren wrote:There is no way to prove whether it was nerves or otherwise that caused DJ to miss.  If we are to follow Navy's definition of choke I don't think we can ever confidently label any sporting failure as choking because the evidence for mental weakness will always be missing.  

Sounds like a good time for a can of STFU

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Post by navyblueshorts Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:58 pm

Davie wrote:
McLaren wrote:There is no way to prove whether it was nerves or otherwise that caused DJ to miss.  If we are to follow Navy's definition of choke I don't think we can ever confidently label any sporting failure as choking because the evidence for mental weakness will always be missing.  

Sounds like a good time for a can of STFU
Couldn't have put it better.
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Post by McLaren Tue Jun 23, 2015 11:24 pm

Navy

The indication being that if you apply your definition of choking we can never actually use the term. Are you happy to agree that we can never label any sporting failure as a choke?
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Post by JAS Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:08 am

McLaren wrote:Jas

Bit of the old ad hominem there don't you think?


Whether or not I can cope under pressure with a chance to win while playing golf has nothing to do with DJ choking or not.  He had a 3 footer to force a play off and missed.  That seems about as close to my definition of choke as possible.  Navy then added to that definition that in order to be categorized as choking we need to be sure that nerves took over and caused the drop in performance.  There is no way to prove whether it was nerves or otherwise that caused DJ to miss.  If we are to follow Navy's definition of choke I don't think we can ever confidently label any sporting failure as choking because the evidence for mental weakness will always be missing.  If however we soften the definition to mine, then choking is a fair label for DJ's miss as pro's probably hole well over 90% of 3 footers, and therefore he failed to perform at the normal level expected.

You're saying there's ad hominem in my comments??...don't you see the rather amusing irony in that??

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Post by MontysMerkin Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:56 am

Having choked many times I can sympathise with DJ.
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Post by hend085 Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:00 am

i 3 putted from 8 feet in a bounce game a couple of months ago to beat (and then tie with my second putt) my best ever round.
second putt from 18 inches didnt even graze the hole and my putting stroke had a furyk wobble on it.
pretty sure if id 7 putts on the last in Chambers bay to win i wouldn't get it in the hole.

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Post by MustPuttBetter Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:33 am

I remember the first time one evening I ever thought I was going to get round 9 holes in level gross (not an amazing sounding achievement to you club champions I know thumbsup, but a big thing for me at the time). Played 8 holes in level and then the 9th, a par 3, hit a nice tee shot and then 3 putted from about 5 feet to finish 1 over, ha. I was so gutted
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Post by super_realist Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:39 am

I recall something similar MPB, I've never had a round without a bogey in it. Played a medal once, 17 straight pars, 17 greens hit then 3 putted the last.


Still never had a bogey free round, lots of rounds with 1 or 2 but none with 0. I suppose that's what I like about golf, the ceaseless quest for perfection.

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Post by MustPuttBetter Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:02 am

Ceaseless indeed. Mainly because, and I don't know about everyone else, but when I do finally start playing well, that usually seems a good time to have a lesson to 'move on to the next step' and commence scrapping again......
Hate having a lesson whilst in a run of playing badly!

Well done on the Club Championship by the way Super clap
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Post by super_realist Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:08 am

Cheers MPB,

I'm actually considering a lesson, I'm very happy with how I hit the ball off the tee, my short game is great but I miss far too many greens from easy positions.
Got a few things to try first with the left hand grip but my GIR should be better, given where I'm hitting it from (usually missing right if anyone has an idea about that). Should be putting for more birdies instead of chipping and putting to save par.
ALthough, maybe I'm just "choking".

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Post by MustPuttBetter Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:34 am

Ha ha, choking maybe!

I'm not going to try and give you swing advice, but out of interest what sort of percentage GIR are you hitting v hope to be hitting?
I usually hit around 30% which I think is p*ss poor. Even when I'm playing my best stuff I only get to about 50% tops. Frustratingly, I drive it pretty well, tend to hit around 75% of fairways.
I too would like to hit more greens but have tried all sorts in terms of course management and it makes no difference - I wonder if it's something every golfer thinks they should be doing better at?
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Post by hend085 Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:38 am

i had a  similar issue SR- I was missing too many greens left  with wedges. I'm left handed so same as missing right for you.
i had a lesson on it from a very well thought of pro and he diagnosed me as having far too much wrist in my wedges and made a couple of tweaks .strikes are alot more consistent in quality now but i havent got a great feel for distance control just yet.


main points:

try and keep weight more evenly distributed throughout. ie 60% on back foot thru back swing rather than 80%. and then 60% on front foot for follow thru rather than 80%.

interlock baby finger and quiten wrists. dont know why but as a junior i started unlocking for wedges for no real reason. this has made  the loft and direction of face more consistent thru impact.

swing as a "U" shape rather than a "V". my angle of attack was a bit too steep. I was talking huge divots previously.


presume they wont all (if any) by applicable to you but might be something to think about.

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Post by super_realist Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:43 am

I can be hitting between 9-11 (not including somewhere like TOC) and having to get up and down 5-6 times per round, with about 3 birdies a round on average and about 85% success on up/downs. So you can see why putting for birdie more often would really help.

Usually I wouldn't think that too bad (although 9 is a bit low), as I'm aware even pro's don't hit more than about 13-14 on average.

The issue I have is that I hit virtually every fairway or only just run off into the semi. Very rarely in trouble off the tee.

If I could hit 12-13 (or 14 on rare occasions) I'd think that would reflect parity with my fairways hit average.

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Post by MustPuttBetter Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:07 pm

Super, have you tried hitting less fairways as an alternative/easier way or achieving parity with GIR? Whistle
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Post by kwinigolfer Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:30 pm

Getting up and down at an "85% success" rate is phenomenal - PGA Tour best scrambler is at 70%; average about 60%.
For "sand saves", Tour best currently is at 65%, average about 51%.
Whilst these may be on tricked up green complexes seeking hidden pins, your 85% is fantastic, super!

As a further sanity check, Tour pros hit about 65% of gir on average, about 12 greens per round; Stenson is top at 73%. You're probably not playing 7,000 yard courses, but you're not likely averaging 300 yds off the tee either.

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Post by super_realist Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:47 pm

I probably over-estimated in that case then Kwini.
I would rate my chipping/pitching as a + handicapper and my main strength.

Just went over R1 and R2 from Sunday and I was 77% and 72% up/downs from a missed GIR. Not too shabby, but I've certainly done better.

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Post by kwinigolfer Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:07 pm

Maybe not.
The key for all of us, but not necessarily pin-seeking pros, is to miss in the right place, where we have a reasonable chance of getting up and down, and certainly not "short-siding" oneself which could easily precipitate a large number.

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Post by LadyPutt Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:09 pm

Didn't Rory's performance at CB illustrate perfectly that while it may be wonderful to bomb it 350 yards+ off the tee, if you can't get your second shot within 15 feet of the pin, and then hole a few putts, you'll never win anything? He need to stop bulking up in the gym, stop practising with his driver/3-wood and start concentrating on his irons (making sure he knows his yardages accurately), chipping and putting.


Last edited by LadyPutt on Wed Jun 24, 2015 3:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Bob_the_Job Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:00 pm

I voted maybe on DJ - to say he definitely will because of his talent flies in the face of statistics and logic - plenty with similar or more talent haven't won majors and some with less than his have. I do think the longer he goes without one the heavier the monkey will get on his back, making it less likely, up until he gives up on the notion and freewheels.
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Post by incontinentia Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:49 pm

I think it's logical to assume the best players have the greatest likelihood to win Majors. And by this reasoning I feel that DJ will win a Major at some point, probably sooner rather than later.
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Post by super_realist Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:55 pm

Is DJ better placed than say someone like Stenson to win a major? Apart from having a few years on his side, I don't see him as being any more likely to win a major than Henrik is.
Perhaps both should, perhaps both will, but the game is littered with players who might have won majors but never do. If DJ wins a major, I wouldn't be surprised, but if he doesn't, that wouldn't surprise me either.

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Post by JAS Wed Jun 24, 2015 5:01 pm

What would somebody of his length be looking at as par (for them) at a windless TOC Super?

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