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PGA Tour: Welcome to the BIG Time Shane!: Notes from the Ballwasher

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Post by kwinigolfer Mon 10 Aug 2015, 4:16 am

First topic message reminder :

Possibly entering a Wi-Fi-Shy territory for a few days so let's kick the PGA Tour Notes off with a few ideas just to get a thread up and running:

guinness guinness guinness guinness guinness guinness guinness guinness guinness guinness guinness guinness guinness

1).Wonderful golf from Shane Lowry, even if he did have to out-luck Bubba Watson on the 18th. Love Lowry's swing and love his short game. The first Irishman to win a WGC and can there be any real doubt that he's capable of emulating Padraig Harrington and winning a Major or three?
As it is, he collects, among other things, a 3-year PGA Tour exemption; now for the hard part, planning a schedule and figuring out what he wants of the next three years, not what everyone else wants of him.
And Lowry's win should allow Martin Laird to enter the PGA as first "alternate".

2).Lee Westwood was among a handful of golfers who finally earned a place in the FedEx Play-Offs, alongside Lowry apparently. (EDIT! Apparently GPB's Golf Channel link suggests this is erroneous and he still requires high finishes at the PGA and/or Greensboro - doubt Shane will be too bothered about that.)
Donaldson was one of a handful of Bridgestone golfers who missed an opportunity to join them. Disappointing finish from Justin Rose - lots of focus from the CBS crew on Justin's putting, striking the short putts on the heel and pulling them. May not have cost him the tournament but almost certainly cost him second place.

3).JJ Henry won the Barracuda Championship in a very exciting finish with eagle on the second play-off hole - not often that golfers lose after birdieing both play-off holes, but that's what Kyle Reifers did, after eagling three of his final six holes. Wonder if that's a Tour first?
One talking point next time the Rules Committee get together will be Andres Romero's decision, with a nod from Tour Officials, to tee off on his last four holes of Round 3 with a putter and pick up claiming a maximum double bogey Stableford score of -3, having earlier damaged his right hand by planting a right cross firmly into the 15th tee sign. The hand swelled up like Rory's ankle and he withdrew after his round, but should that have been allowed?

4).This week's PGA Championship will be at Whistling Straits, about an hour north of Milwaukee overlooking Lake Michigan, for the 3rd time in 12 years. Apart from the actual Championship, the week will go a long way towards finalising Presidents Cup teams and determining the last few qualifiers for the FedEx Play-Offs. Next week's action at Greensboro will represent the final event of the regular season, do or die for famous names and journeymen alike.
Meanwhile, reports suggest that Dustin's bunker has been replaced with spectator seating so he'll get a free drop next time instead of a devastating penalty.

5).Although Vijay and Martin Kaymer won the two previous PGA's played here, and Dustin, Rory and Bubba were narrowly defeated last time, other top five positions have been filled by some of the Tour's shorter hitters: Justin Leonard, DiMarco, Zach Johnson, Chris Riley and Elkington. These players "go again" after earning top 20 placings in 2004 and 2010:
2004: Singh, Els, Mickelson, Scott, Clarke, Toms.
2010: Kaymer, Watson, McIlroy, Dustin & Zach, Dufner, Villegas, Day, Kuchar, Mickelson, Casey, Schwartzel, Gallacher, Els, Watney.

Both previous trips to Whistling Straits have ended in play-offs. The next time Europe's best golfers get to see the course will be in 2020. Not sure who'll win this week (Fingers Crossed for Stenson), but have no doubt that the 2020 winners will be Europe's Ryder Cup Team!

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Post by McLaren Tue 18 Aug 2015, 5:16 pm

So you accepted

McLaren wrote:
Sof(rest)+sof(greats) = sof(total)

And that sof(total) determines the probability of the field beating a particular player?


So we could say that Sof(rest)+sof(greats) = P(of field beating player X)  

and therefore

P(field not beating X) = 1-P(of field beating player X)


But what you seem to be saying is this;

P(field not beating X) + P(of field beating player X) ≠ 1
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Post by MustPuttBetter Tue 18 Aug 2015, 5:21 pm

I think you've nailed it Mac picard
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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 18 Aug 2015, 5:24 pm

Early prices for the 2016 Masters:
6/1: McIlroy, Spieth
11/1: Day
14/1: Watson
16/1: DJohnson
20/1: Scott
22/1: Rose, Woods (Mac with his money on early)
25/1: Phil
28/1: Fowler, Stenson
33/1 and up: Bar those.

Jason Day looks excellent value at 11's.


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Post by MustPuttBetter Tue 18 Aug 2015, 5:28 pm

Since Scotty has turned a decent debate a bit sour by busting out the insults before running back to boxing to discuss more important matters such as 'is Mayweather the best ever', and since Mac's golf equations have certainly quashed my arguments dead, let's leave the Woods/Nicklaus debate there out of respect for Kwini's thread
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Post by Scottrf Tue 18 Aug 2015, 5:35 pm

You started with the attitude and your snide comment. I was simply contributing to the debate. Cowardly too to get personal behind my back because you thought I'd left.

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Post by MustPuttBetter Tue 18 Aug 2015, 5:45 pm

Ha ha, it says plenty that you consider how cowardly or not a post is. It's a public forum, you seem to be able to read. How would me posting be either cowardly or brave?? Ha!

I merely responded to your 'contribution' with an explanation of why I wasn't referencing the general health of golf. Your response was an insult.
Whilst clearly you made a highly intelligent point that I didn't understand, it seems to me that you might just be an idiot. Isn't that brave?

If you want to continue with the insults I suggest we take it to a different thread. Or you could run along back to Mayweather etc. cheers Scotty
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Post by McLaren Tue 18 Aug 2015, 6:18 pm

Scottrf's comments were hardly anymore uncivil than most on here. I hope you continue to contribute to the golf forum Scottrf as new ideas are always welcome. Smile


Mustputt

I am glad to see you have succumbed to reason. (The attack on a new poster aside)
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Post by MustPuttBetter Tue 18 Aug 2015, 6:21 pm

In that case neither were mine

I always succumb to you Mac. You wear me down
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Post by MustPuttBetter Tue 18 Aug 2015, 6:23 pm

Does Tiger need an out and out win in the Wyndham this week to qualify for the playoffs?
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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 18 Aug 2015, 6:38 pm

A win or solo second.
Playing with Hideki and Koepka on Thursday & Friday. Saturday tba.

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Post by MustPuttBetter Tue 18 Aug 2015, 6:52 pm

Branden Grace at 22-1?
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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 18 Aug 2015, 7:09 pm

Paddy Power list Grace at 66's, sure differing prices are available elsewhere; I've seen a Las Vegas price at 60's but there's seldom any evidence they know how to make a book. Terrific value at anything 33/1 or higher in my view.

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Post by MustPuttBetter Tue 18 Aug 2015, 7:25 pm

Think you might be looking at a Branden of the Todd variety there Kwini
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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 18 Aug 2015, 7:43 pm

Not a bit of it - where did you see 22/1? Which seems a sensible price, if a little short.

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Post by MustPuttBetter Tue 18 Aug 2015, 7:59 pm

Paddy Power!
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Post by navyblueshorts Tue 18 Aug 2015, 8:02 pm

This is not a Woods vs. Nicklaus thread. Please start one if you want to continue the conversation in this vein. Keep away from the direct insults if possible please.
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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 18 Aug 2015, 8:43 pm

MPB,
Are you sure that wasn't a price in running last weekend? Can't link the page that I have unfortunately.

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Post by GPB Tue 18 Aug 2015, 8:51 pm

A Solo 2nd for Tiger is not guaranteed to make the playoffs.

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Post by Davie Tue 18 Aug 2015, 8:55 pm

Betvictor currently showing Grace at 22/1, Todd at 66/1

http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/golf/wyndham-championship-2015/coupons/400/285694610/630600500/0/0/PE/0/0/0/0/0

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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 18 Aug 2015, 8:58 pm

Agreed GPB, I made the mistake of believing the media without checking myself.
So a win gets him in. He needs a 2nd place to have any chance of qualifying; a runner-up finish probably gives him a 50/50 chance of qualifying.

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Post by MustPuttBetter Tue 18 Aug 2015, 8:58 pm

Def for this week Kwini. If I could work out how to put a pic on i'd post a screen print

Here's a link which hopefully works

https://iphone.paddypower.mobi/#!paddypower_publication_event_iphone.t?classId=7&typeId=375&eventId=9306249


Last edited by MustPuttBetter on Tue 18 Aug 2015, 9:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 18 Aug 2015, 9:01 pm

Only for the Wyndham.
These are tricky Vicky's prices for The Masters:

http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/golf/2016-us-masters/coupons/400/269708710/593906900/0/0/PE/0/0/0/0/0

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Post by MustPuttBetter Tue 18 Aug 2015, 9:03 pm

Ah cross wires. I was talking about Grace for this week. You were for the Masters
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Post by kwinigolfer Tue 18 Aug 2015, 9:09 pm

Well, I DID say the Masters. And there was a reason I made the post!!!! thumbsup

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Post by MustPuttBetter Tue 18 Aug 2015, 9:18 pm

I know but in between we'd talked about Tiger winning at the Wyndham and I was following from there..... Never mind! Doh
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Post by Roller_Coaster Wed 19 Aug 2015, 8:59 am

kwinigolfer wrote:A win or solo second.
Playing with Hideki and Koepka on Thursday & Friday. Saturday tba.

Saturday? I think it's the Isleworth Monthly Medal...

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Post by McLaren Wed 19 Aug 2015, 9:54 am

Some interesting reading.

Winning Majors Gets Tougher http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/18/sports/golf/jason-day-exits-the-talented-fraternity-that-has-no-major-win.html?ref=golf&_r=1


Just how good was Spieths season.  Unsurprisingly one of the best ever. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jordan-spieths-majors-run-was-one-of-the-greatest-in-golf-history/


A bit old (a link from the above article) but an interesting take on the most dominant major wins of all time.  http://grantland.com/features/relative-dominance
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Post by MontysMerkin Wed 19 Aug 2015, 11:35 am

I'd like to know what % of times they came second in the J v T debate? 19 2nd place finishes seems a little careless to me. Choker? Run
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Post by raycastleunited Wed 19 Aug 2015, 12:58 pm

The JvT debate? T is the clear winner, and here is the evidnce:
Spoiler:
Spoiler:

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Post by incontinentia Wed 19 Aug 2015, 1:25 pm

Is that a slazenger jumper?
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