Pakistan vs England; 3rd Test - Sunday 1st November to Thursday 5th

First topic message reminder :

England Team:

Cook, Ali, Bell, root, Taylor, Stokes, Bairstow, Rashid, Broad, TBC, Anderson


Pakistan Team:

TBC

alfie wrote:Thoughtful post from robbo , above. I hear what you're saying ; but it strikes me that effectively designing the whole team around a promising but hardly proven wrist spinner is a bit of a gamble ...and perhaps not a necessary one.
Rashid has bowled better today , I agree . He should have had a vital wicket first up this morning ; and who knows , he might have gone on to take more ?  But the fact remains he has not made any more chances in 25 overs ...and has still leaked runs fairly steadily.  
I am not writing him off at all . But I don't think there is any evidence that he is going to be a "special" bowler , worth altering the whole balance of the team to accommodate.
That team of yours is a bit light on full time batsmen , no ?

guildfordbat wrote:

VTR wrote:I am with Alfie, I don't see anything in Rashid to make building a team around him worthwhile. He will likely end Test with an average of 70+ and an economy rate around 4rpo. Those are Salisbury-esque numbers.

I'd expect to see England return to 4 pacers + Moeen in SA and at home

Aw shucks, VTR - I had been saving up a reference to Salisbury!

I too am with Alfie. If anything, stronger in my concerns. I've always been doubtful and made no secret about it of an England leg spinner doing the business in Tests.

I do agree with Alfie that it was a thoughtful post from Robbo. It is worth emphasising - as Robbo does - that Pakistan's batsmen are so good at playing spin that it makes our slow bowlers appear even worse.

Final point on Robbo's team - if I'm reading things correctly, you'll have to crowbar a keeper into the top five. As a general rule, not keen on that.

Meanwhile, dreadful drop by the normally reliable Anderson to deny the hard working Patel a second wicket. A second wicket in this innings would give a decent look to Patel's performance.

I wouldn't say I'm completely building the team around Rashid, more the lack of any stand-out spinner. I think we will need 4 seamers so if required they can each bowl 75 overs a day between them and we can get 10/15 from whoever our spin option(s) are. It's not ideal, but that's where we are at the moment as we have no standout candidate. Looking at this match, the pitch is turning and the pacers have 4-95, the spinners 3-200+.

Your option is then who do you play as your primary spinner. I'd like to give Rashid a prolonged run of at least a second series, but possibly a 12 month stint to see how he goes. You can replace him with someone else (Patel, Ansari, Panesar, Kerrigan) if you prefer, although I haven't considered Moeen as I would like to keep him as a batting option who can bowl occasionally.

Based on picking a spinner (not Moeen) and 4 seamers, we then have to make up a top 7 including Stokes or a top 6 without him. Assuming he's fit, I've slotted him in at 6, with Moeen at 7 and Bairstow keeping and batting at 5. Without him, I've moved Moeen up to 6, and kept the same top 5. You could play Stokes 5, Moeen 6 and a keeper at 7, but I think with Bairstow in there for now, I'd go with him at 5.

It might be that Moeen isn't the best option for a spot in the top 6/7 either, in which case we could call up another batsman and have Root's part-time bowling as a slightly worse, but otherwise satisfactory, 6th bowling option. But I'd like to see Moeen given a chance in the top 7 and a chance to focus on his stronger suit.

What an important time for an impotent tail to turn omnipotent

276 on now. Just about too many , I fancy. Even the time available is starting to complicate the issue.

England will regret all the missed chances today : they might well have been chasing 220-240.

Looking at it, I may have been a touch harsh on Hafeez's overall ability. Last five years he's averaged over 40 in four years, and the only exception was 2013, where he faced SA (and by default, Dale Steyn) in five out of six matches. He stood no chance

Broad vs Riaz. Need to get a stick here

kingraf wrote:Broad vs Riaz. Need to get a stick here

Even better than Riaz, he got Shafiq!

that 35 run partership worth gold
282 and it's already a very big lead

I think this is a case of what might have been for England. If Stokes didn't get injured, if we could have added 40 more 1st innings. Those dropped catches.

Not making excuses because they are all things that happened. I think the chase will be way beyond England, so I am going to predict a defeat by 75 runs

KP_fan wrote:that 35 run partership worth gold
282 and it's already a very big lead

Yep, think the partnership just about put it out of England's reach.

No surprise that it took Broad to make the break. In fairness , all the England spinners have had their moments ; but on a pitch helping them to a fair degree the results just aren't acceptable.

Runout finishes it ...good work from Bell .

284 to win.

VTR wrote:I think this is a case of what might have been for England. If Stokes didn't get injured, if we could have added 40 more 1st innings. Those dropped catches.

Not making excuses because they are all things that happened. I think the chase will be way beyond England, so I am going to predict a defeat by 75 runs

Think it goes both ways. Pakistan had to play the first test without their best player (admittedly they didnt lose him in the match, but he's much more valuable to the Pakistani cause, and Stoeks' average of 15 with the bat this series does suggest that he probably wouldn't add 40 to the score. as for the catches, lets not forget the only reason the second Test went close was because Pakistan dropped Rashid a few times

2 run outs.......Eng got lucky....these are always bonuses and especially so in a tight game like this.

so 283 on paper would't look too bad given that Pak just scored 355

However I would put Pak at 70% and Eng 30% chance of win....largely factored around big 50s from Cook and Root or a near bat throuhg 100 from Cook

Getting back to robbo and his theory : I think where I differ is that I am basically happy to have Moeen as primary spinner (as guildford has demonstrated before , his record is pretty good in terms of strike rate , if a little expensive. He has contributed to several wins.)
He isn't a Swann ; but then I don't think Rashid is a Warne - or even a Yasir Shah.
Outside Asia/UAE , four good pace bowlers plus Moeen can work - as long as the batting stands up. I am not ready to risk weakening that batting just to force a second spinner into the team.

Of course if Moeen isn't doing the job , he can be replaced. By Rashid perhaps if he has the performance. But so far , he doesn't.

If England could pull this off, it would probably be their greatest run-chase of all time.

I think they will perish at somewhere between 170-200.

If, as I doubt, England are positive from the off, with a healthy scoring rate, and they make Pakistan contemplate the idea of defeat, they might just make it. If, as I expect, they scratch around at 2-2.5 an over, Pakistan will easily pick them off.

alfie wrote:Getting back to robbo and his theory : I think where I differ is that I am basically happy to have Moeen as primary spinner (as guildford has demonstrated before , his record is pretty good in terms of strike rate , if a little expensive. He has contributed to several wins.)
He isn't a Swann ; but then I don't think Rashid is a Warne - or even a Yasir Shah.
Outside Asia/UAE , four good pace bowlers plus Moeen can work - as long as the batting stands up.  I am not ready to risk weakening that batting just to force a second spinner into the team.

Of course if Moeen isn't doing the job , he can be replaced. By Rashid perhaps if he has the performance.  But so far , he doesn't.

Have to be pretty damn good to be "Even a Yasir Shah"

KP_fan wrote:2 run outs.......Eng got lucky....these are always bonuses and especially so in a tight game like this.

so 283 on paper would't look too bad given that Pak just scored 355

However I would put Pak at 70% and Eng 30% chance of win....largely factored around big 50s from Cook and Root or a  near bat throuhg 100 from Cook

70/30 sounds about right. If England get a good start tonight that might be reassessed. Though I don't think we should see it as all up to Cook and Root : Taylor was excellent in the first innings , Bell battles away despite all the flak he gets on here ; and the rest of them are capable players , if not all best suited to playing against spin.

Hope this is a good contest to conclude a rather interesting and hard fought series.

kingraf wrote:

VTR wrote:I think this is a case of what might have been for England. If Stokes didn't get injured, if we could have added 40 more 1st innings. Those dropped catches.

Not making excuses because they are all things that happened. I think the chase will be way beyond England, so I am going to predict a defeat by 75 runs

Think it goes both ways. Pakistan had to play the first test without their best player (admittedly they didnt lose him in the match, but he's much more valuable to the Pakistani cause, and Stoeks' average of 15 with the bat this series does suggest that he probably wouldn't add 40 to the score. as for the catches, lets not forget the only reason the second Test went close was because Pakistan dropped Rashid a few times

Fair points - was referring to this match in isolation. Also was not getting at the 40 runs were not going to come from Stokes but somewhere else, given four batsmen I think got out in the forties. Should have been clearer on that point

kingraf wrote:

alfie wrote:Getting back to robbo and his theory : I think where I differ is that I am basically happy to have Moeen as primary spinner (as guildford has demonstrated before , his record is pretty good in terms of strike rate , if a little expensive. He has contributed to several wins.)
He isn't a Swann ; but then I don't think Rashid is a Warne - or even a Yasir Shah.
Outside Asia/UAE , four good pace bowlers plus Moeen can work - as long as the batting stands up.  I am not ready to risk weakening that batting just to force a second spinner into the team.

Of course if Moeen isn't doing the job , he can be replaced. By Rashid perhaps if he has the performance.  But so far , he doesn't.

Have to be pretty damn good to be "Even a Yasir Shah"

Well obviously. But I think he's a step down from Warne . I could have gone on down the chain - even to Tahir ? But you know what I mean.

England off to a flyer!

Seriously though, we need to somehow get to about 150/3 to really have a chance and make Pakistan sweat. Doesn't matter if that is at a run a ball or takes 75 overs.

Pakistan chased down 307 on this pitch last year in the 4th innings.

OPTA - 3 - England have chased down a target of 284+ away from home three times before: 1895 v Aus, 1928 v Aus & 1997 v NZ. Rare.

Apparently, as well as Yasir Shah, history is well against us.

The Sky boys in the UK were saying that the most we've scored in a 4th innings in Asia to win a test is 209 against Bangladesh and 208 against Pakistan in the early '60s.

Anyway, precedents have to be made as well as followed so I haven't given up hope yet.

We obviously shouldn't try to go crazy in this final session today but still important to keep the scoreboard ticking. As Pakistan will be able to slow the over rate down tomorrow if they want to and bad light always appearing on queue at the end of scheduled time, it would be good if we needed under 240 more at start of play on day five - oh, and with 10 wickets still in the bank. Greedy? Yes, but believe that's necessary for a win here.

284 on this is possible - unless it seriously crumbles tomorrow - but it ain't easy : the spinners , unlike England's , will not be allowing easy runs at least until tiredness sets in ; so it will take a lot of overs to get up there...going to call for intense concentration over many hours.
A real Test , one might say.

Moeen has started brightly - would love to see him play a real innings this time ! Even a quick fifty would change the equation...

Good old England - brave, attacking from the off.

That'll be good new England then.

The real test will arrive whenever Yasir Shah pops up to have a bowl.

guildfordbat wrote:Apparently, as well as Yasir Shah, history is well against us.

The Sky boys in the UK were saying that the most we've scored in a 4th innings in Asia to win a test is 209 against Bangladesh and 208 against Pakistan in the early '60s.

Anyway, precedents have to be made as well as followed so I haven't given up hope yet.

We obviously shouldn't try to go crazy in this final session today but still important to keep the scoreboard ticking. As Pakistan will be able to slow the over rate down tomorrow if they want to and bad light always appearing on queue at the end of scheduled time, it would be good if we needed under 240 more at start of play on day five - oh, and with 10 wickets still in the bank. Greedy? Yes, but believe that's necessary for a win here.

Yeah I'd take 50/0 at stumps

Can Moeen keep calm and pick the right ball to attack ? One miscue then which he gets away with...

Not a comfortable batsman to watch

First one down and a ridiculous waste of a valuable review to boot

Oh dear, that looked out to me and the review confirms it. Can't afford to lose another wicket tonight you would think ....

Moeen lbw ...not the way I expected ; but out anyway. 34/1

That Hawkeye surprises me sometimes. I thought "out" straight away ; but I expected it to be just clipping...but no , full on hit.

Now Pakistan reviewing against Cook...

Umpires call survival ...phew !

Ali was living a charmed life......his efforts and intents can't be doubted....just lacking cricketing ability with the bat right on top.

Malik in his last game already has a 5-for

VTR wrote:First one down and a ridiculous waste of a valuable review to boot

Has Moeen been taking lessons from Watson ?

alfie wrote:

VTR wrote:First one down and a ridiculous waste of a valuable review to boot

Has Moeen been taking lessons from Watson ?

It was certainly along those lines!

Pakistan are bowling hand grenades here and the run rate is grinding to a halt. I really can't see a win from this position, unless Root plays the innings of his life as he can bat with a good tempo and make large scores

And there goes Ronald for an inevitable duck under pressure

Malik the wrecker ! Straight through Bell ...England deep in it now.

Think this is going south quickly now. Ever since the Pakistan openers wiped out the lead without loss it's been heading Pakistan's way ; and it's hard to see that changing.

I'll leave the " Bell for the boot" posts to others ...

what a way to play his last series.....started with a career best 245 and ending with no less than a 6-for.......could be a career best 10-for at this rate

KP_fan wrote:what a way to play his last series.....

I thought this was going to be about Ian Bell at that point!

Joking aside, England are absolutely shotless against the spinners. I can't see a way out of this other than a slow death

Cook and Root - the last hope England has in this match and, indeed, the series.

It would be unrealistic to expect Taylor to deliver under such pressure, given his lack of experience (another self-inflicted blow).

And yes, that probably is the end of Ian Bell. Although I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to limp on, and I wouldn't be surprised if the England selectors let him limp on. It's all a bit like Strauss really - Strauss should have retired after the glory v India in 2011, rather than lamely bowing out after the beating from South Africa a year later; Bell should have retired after the glory v Australia in 2015, rather than lamely bowing out after....

actually these are already his best bowling figures for a test match
what a flourish at the end

Going to be a tough day for the umpires tomorrow ...they're going to appeal for everything

All day to get 238 ...unfortunately 2 wickets gone already and one batting from the sick bay...

Pakistan 80 England 20 ?

Yes, massively in Pakistan's favour. They know that they get one of these out then you have a virtual debutant at 5, then into the flaky middle order and tail!

guildfordbat wrote:Apparently, as well as Yasir Shah, history is well against us.

The Sky boys in the UK were saying that the most we've scored in a 4th innings in Asia to win a test is 209 against Bangladesh and 208 against Pakistan in the early '60s.

Anyway, precedents have to be made as well as followed so I haven't given up hope yet.

We obviously shouldn't try to go crazy in this final session today but still important to keep the scoreboard ticking. As Pakistan will be able to slow the over rate down tomorrow if they want to and bad light always appearing on queue at the end of scheduled time, it would be good if we needed under 240 more at start of play on day five - oh, and with 10 wickets still in the bank. Greedy? Yes, but believe that's necessary for a win here.

Well, we've got the target for tomorrow down to under 240. However, the far more significant figure is we've lost 2 wickets. I can now only see history being followed tomorrow and not made.

A lot of endeavour and good in parts today from England but still too many mistakes.

alfie wrote:Going to be a tough day for the umpires tomorrow ...they're going to appeal for everything

All day to get 238 ...unfortunately 2 wickets gone already and one batting from the sick bay...

Pakistan  80 England 20 ?

90 / 10 in my book.

80-20 is a correct assessment....the next 3 batters( including those two batting) have to take them to within last 60 runs for Eng to have a chance

Fascinating game....good series....Eng haven't been rolled over at all

95-5, in Pakistan's favour, for me.

99.5/0.5 for me!

This would be something like England's 4th highest ever run chase, facing bowling they are not very good at playing with a team of bits and pieces players that even a 90's selector would cringe at

Think that last line sums up the tour , guildford. (your line about good in parts , I mean )

But considering in 2012 England had Strauss Trott Pietersen ...Prior to keep and Swann and Panesar to bowl spin - and got absolutely slaughtered ; this relatively inexperienced team , light on for spin options , has competed pretty well. If they do go down tomorrow , I think it would be fair to say that a 2-0 defeat is a little unflattering.

With one day to go , I am happy with their efforts , if disappointed with the scoreline.

And I think Pakistan deserve a lot of credit for coming back so well in this match after having the worse of the first two days.

Pakistan have played this well.  I would give England (generously) a 15% chance of winning.  That is mainly based on the possibility that Cook will dig in and Root will play a blinder and have good fortune on his side - in which case he might get a score of, say, 80+ at a reasonable rate.

alfie wrote:Think that last line sums up the tour , guildford. (your line about good in parts , I mean )

But considering in 2012 England had Strauss Trott Pietersen ...Prior to keep and Swann and Panesar to bowl spin - and got absolutely slaughtered ; this relatively inexperienced team , light on for spin options , has competed pretty well. If they do go down tomorrow , I think it would be fair to say that a 2-0 defeat is a little unflattering.

With one day to go , I am happy with their efforts , if disappointed with the scoreline.

And I think Pakistan deserve a lot of credit for coming back so well in this match after having the worse of the first two days.

Alfie - yep, go along with that. Olly said pretty similar the other day. As I mentioned to him, the disappointment for me (even more than the likely series scoreline) is that we seem little wiser on some significant issues that were known before we boarded the plane.

One ray of light might be that Pakistan apparently already have used both their reviews? If so, they'll have to keep the excited appeals within reason, both in frequency and noise: the umpires might not give one out that should be if they think the Pakistanis are appealing with more enthusiasm than conviction. But it's theirs to lose now after Hafeez's wonderful effort, backed up by others.

I suppose rain is out of the question

With luck going a bit differently, we'd have won the first test and perhaps heldo on for the draw in the second match (although accepting it was a fantastic effort even to get as close as we did in the 4th innings).

This match has fluctuated and it's only today that either side has really established a dominant (rather than only advantageous) position, and that could easily have been different if we'd taken the chances early on.

However, the loss of 2 wickets in the last session plus the (effective) absence of Stokes surely means we have no better than 5% chance of not losing (noting the slow scoring rates over the 4 days, the draw is not totally out of the question).

I can understand the calls for Bell to be dropped, and certainly he has under-performed relative to his previously demonstrated levels, but the big question is who should replace him - I'm not convinced that anyone outside the current or recent squads has really made an unanswerable case in county cricket, and as we've seen with Lyth and Bairstow in the last couple of years, carrying over CC form to the international arena is difficult. Can see Bell getting another chance through the SA tour and perhaps being phased out over next summer.

Agree with the general consensus that other than in Asia we should be looking at 4 seamers plus one spinner/batsman - ideally, Stokes will be available as 4th seamer / no 6 batsman, allowing the keeper and spinner to bat 7 and 8. Could be Bairstow and Moeen, but I think both spots are up for grabs.

Hales will have to come in as opener - I think though most of us are looking at him more in hope than expectation in terms of the solution to the long-standing issues at opener.

Interesting day's play. England have had the rub of the green to be only two wickets down. I don't remember too many passages of play where four huge LBW appeals were given not out, and all four of them were hitting on umpire's call. On another day, England could have been three or four down, and we'd be looking at tomorrow being the last rites. As for tomorrow, I don't think the draw is a possibility. England need to go for a win. Far as I'm concerned, there's no real difference in losing a series 1-0 or 2-0. A loss is a loss. A couple kept low, and Shah got a lot turn early on, so he'll be a threat. But I think Malik will probably be a bigger one. He's getting some to turn, getting others to slide beautifully (The ball he got Bell with was a stunning delivery, as good as it gets, for an off spinner really).

A lot depends on how Root and Cook bat, I can't see them lasting too long if they try inching their way, of nothing else, the law of averages dictates that they can't plausibly keep getting the 50-50 calls

I would go for Ali is our main spinner. When we go to India we will have to find a containing spinner to partner Ali and a reserve, probably Ansari. We don't want to be going for hundreds of runs again. 295.1-23-1202-20 (60.1 econ 4.07 s/r 88.5) compared to last time 255.5-61-628-27 (23.25 econ 2.45 s/r 56.8)