The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll)

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Thu 25 Feb 2016, 8:02 pm

First topic message reminder :

Now it is official (and some guy with a green admin name has ruined the other thread) I shall put this here for you to discuss the referendum.

by TopHat24/7 Wed 25 May 2016, 3:05 pm

rodders wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
Also, if you think the EU is HELPING employment in the UK, then why is unemployment in the EU soooo much higher than in the UK?

Maybe because it's a lot easier for skilled and semi skilled English speaking brits to hot foot down to Australia or Canada for work and for the less fortunate to snap up a zero hour contract to stay off the unemployment stats.

Except their superior grasp of english as a foreign language is one of the main reasons EU nationals come here to work (as opposed to other countries) and they could go to Oz/Can as easily as the rest of us - being not that easy at all given those countries' restrictive visa requirements.

In short I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make (successfully).

by **ShahenshahG** Wed 25 May 2016, 3:05 pm

rodders wrote:
Duty281 wrote:The Remain voters will be too busy getting high at Glastonbury, not knowing what a polling station is, and forgetting to register to vote.

The Leave voters will listen to a bit of Vera Lynn, put on their best suit, and vote to save their country.

We must be free or die, who speak the tongue
That Shakespeare spoke: the faith and morals hold
Which Milton held.

Given how much time Milton spent learning his trade in France, Italy and Switzerland it's a good bet he'd be backing the stay in campaign.

Plus who needs Vera Lynn when you've got

https://youtu.be/lGTGt392Gas

by TRUSSMAN66 Wed 25 May 2016, 3:06 pm

On line polls are worthless..

Ask Ed Miliband.

by Duty281 Wed 25 May 2016, 3:07 pm

rodders wrote:
Duty281 wrote:The Remain voters will be too busy getting high at Glastonbury, not knowing what a polling station is, and forgetting to register to vote.

The Leave voters will listen to a bit of Vera Lynn, put on their best suit, and vote to save their country.

We must be free or die, who speak the tongue
That Shakespeare spoke: the faith and morals hold
Which Milton held.

Given how much time Milton spent learning his trade in France, Italy and Switzerland it's a good bet he'd be backing the stay in campaign.

Switzerland, dear boy? Not in the EU.

And my favourite nation on all the Earth is Italy, swiftly followed by Greece of course. And I know which way I'm voting.

by TRUSSMAN66 Wed 25 May 2016, 3:17 pm

Unemployment and another recession are high prices to pay for "Britain to be proud again"..

Generally silly old farts that don't have to worry about those things pushing for out..

Duty will grow out of it..Give him time..

by TopHat24/7 Wed 25 May 2016, 3:19 pm

Duty281 wrote:
rodders wrote:
Duty281 wrote:The Remain voters will be too busy getting high at Glastonbury, not knowing what a polling station is, and forgetting to register to vote.

The Leave voters will listen to a bit of Vera Lynn, put on their best suit, and vote to save their country.

We must be free or die, who speak the tongue
That Shakespeare spoke: the faith and morals hold
Which Milton held.

Given how much time Milton spent learning his trade in France, Italy and Switzerland it's a good bet he'd be backing the stay in campaign.

Switzerland, dear boy? Not in the EU.

And my favourite nation on all the Earth is Italy, swiftly followed by Greece of course. And I know which way I'm voting.

#missingthepoint

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/man-who-has-never-left-huddersfield-thinks-britain-should-leave-the-eu-20160524109070

by Duty281 Wed 25 May 2016, 3:41 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
rodders wrote:
Duty281 wrote:The Remain voters will be too busy getting high at Glastonbury, not knowing what a polling station is, and forgetting to register to vote.

The Leave voters will listen to a bit of Vera Lynn, put on their best suit, and vote to save their country.

We must be free or die, who speak the tongue
That Shakespeare spoke: the faith and morals hold
Which Milton held.

Given how much time Milton spent learning his trade in France, Italy and Switzerland it's a good bet he'd be backing the stay in campaign.

Switzerland, dear boy? Not in the EU.

And my favourite nation on all the Earth is Italy, swiftly followed by Greece of course. And I know which way I'm voting.

#missingthepoint

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/man-who-has-never-left-huddersfield-thinks-britain-should-leave-the-eu-20160524109070

Tee-hee, that's where I live. laughing

I like to think it was based on myself.

by **rodders** Wed 25 May 2016, 4:02 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
rodders wrote:
Duty281 wrote:The Remain voters will be too busy getting high at Glastonbury, not knowing what a polling station is, and forgetting to register to vote.

The Leave voters will listen to a bit of Vera Lynn, put on their best suit, and vote to save their country.

We must be free or die, who speak the tongue
That Shakespeare spoke: the faith and morals hold
Which Milton held.

Given how much time Milton spent learning his trade in France, Italy and Switzerland it's a good bet he'd be backing the stay in campaign.

Switzerland, dear boy? Not in the EU.

And my favourite nation on all the Earth is Italy, swiftly followed by Greece of course. And I know which way I'm voting.

#missingthepoint

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/man-who-has-never-left-huddersfield-thinks-britain-should-leave-the-eu-20160524109070

by TRUSSMAN66 Thu 26 May 2016, 9:53 am

The oddsmakers have Remain's share between 56-60% as favorite... bypassing 50-55%.....

That's pretty worrying...I mean 10 points is a big victory in a political race...

Just can't see an upset.....

Like I said before these people have been arguing for a vote on Europe for years...Knew they were getting it well in advance... and when they get it......

They have a shambolic campaign..

Scandalous really..

by Duty281 Thu 26 May 2016, 11:03 am

It's 53-47 for Remain in the poll of polls; accounting for turnout that means Remain are a whisker ahead.

And starting tonight is the first television debate - Liam Fox and Diane James against Alex Salmond and Alan Johnson.

The television debates, and there are many, are excellent opportunities for the Leave side. They have the stronger arguments, and millions of people will be watching.

by TRUSSMAN66 Thu 26 May 2016, 11:08 am

Poll of polls carries "online" polling...

I haven't seen Ed Miliband standing outside number Ten recently...

Liam Fox ??......That's another 2% going to Remain right there before he opens his mouth...

Is he bringing his male friend with him ??

by **navyblueshorts** Thu 26 May 2016, 11:09 am

Duty281 wrote:It's 53-47 for Remain in the poll of polls; accounting for turnout that means Remain are a whisker ahead.

And starting tonight is the first television debate - Liam Fox and Diane James against Alex Salmond and Alan Johnson.

The television debates, and there are many, are excellent opportunities for the Leave side. They have the stronger arguments, and millions of people will be watching.

Oooo, be still my aching sides.

by Duty281 Thu 26 May 2016, 11:23 am

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Poll of polls carries "online" polling...

I haven't seen Ed Miliband standing outside number Ten recently...

Liam Fox ??......That's another 2% going to Remain right there before he opens his mouth...

Is he bringing his male friend with him ??

Online polling is slightly overstated to Leave; Phone polling is slightly overstated to Remain.

It's a great balance.

by Duty281 Thu 26 May 2016, 11:24 am

navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:It's 53-47 for Remain in the poll of polls; accounting for turnout that means Remain are a whisker ahead.

And starting tonight is the first television debate - Liam Fox and Diane James against Alex Salmond and Alan Johnson.

The television debates, and there are many, are excellent opportunities for the Leave side. They have the stronger arguments, and millions of people will be watching.
Oooo, be still my aching sides.

Yes, it explains why Leave win debate after debate in Universities and Town Halls up and down the land. Very Happy

by TRUSSMAN66 Thu 26 May 2016, 11:34 am

Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Poll of polls carries "online" polling...

I haven't seen Ed Miliband standing outside number Ten recently...

Liam Fox ??......That's another 2% going to Remain right there before he opens his mouth...

Is he bringing his male friend with him ??

Online polling is slightly overstated to Leave; Phone polling is slightly overstated to Remain.

It's a great balance.

Unless you know how the public is going to vote at this moment you don't know if anyone is overstating anything...

What we do know is ONLINE polls have proved to be more unreliable than PHONE polls..

Just stop with the nonsense..

by Duty281 Thu 26 May 2016, 11:47 am

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Poll of polls carries "online" polling...

I haven't seen Ed Miliband standing outside number Ten recently...

Liam Fox ??......That's another 2% going to Remain right there before he opens his mouth...

Is he bringing his male friend with him ??

Online polling is slightly overstated to Leave; Phone polling is slightly overstated to Remain.

It's a great balance.

Unless you know how the public is going to vote at this moment you don't know if anyone is overstating anything...

What we do know is ONLINE polls have proved to be more unreliable than PHONE polls..

Just stop with the nonsense..

Yes, but we've recently had an admission from YouGov that graduates are being over-represented in phone polls, whilst ICM believe that UKIP supports are being over-represented in their online polls.

It's why we take an average.

by **navyblueshorts** Thu 26 May 2016, 12:50 pm

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:It's 53-47 for Remain in the poll of polls; accounting for turnout that means Remain are a whisker ahead.

And starting tonight is the first television debate - Liam Fox and Diane James against Alex Salmond and Alan Johnson.

The television debates, and there are many, are excellent opportunities for the Leave side. They have the stronger arguments, and millions of people will be watching.
Oooo, be still my aching sides.

Yes, it explains why Leave win debate after debate in Universities and Town Halls up and down the land.

Oh, sure. Of course....

by TopHat24/7 Thu 26 May 2016, 2:42 pm

Duty281 wrote:It's 53-47 for Remain in the poll of polls; accounting for turnout that means Remain are a whisker ahead.

And starting tonight is the first television debate - Liam Fox and Diane James against Alex Salmond and Alan Johnson.

The television debates, and there are many, are excellent opportunities for the Leave side. They have the stronger arguments, and millions of people will be watching.

No it doesn't.

Next?

by TopHat24/7 Thu 26 May 2016, 2:44 pm

Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Poll of polls carries "online" polling...

I haven't seen Ed Miliband standing outside number Ten recently...

Liam Fox ??......That's another 2% going to Remain right there before he opens his mouth...

Is he bringing his male friend with him ??

Online polling is slightly overstated to Leave; Phone polling is slightly overstated to Remain.

It's a great balance.

Except it isn't because phone polling (despite over-sampling Labour) tends to be a more accurate barometer of polling actions as you strip out the keyboard warrior element.

Next?

by SecretFly Thu 26 May 2016, 2:45 pm

Have people copped on about these polls.... and started actively lying to them simply to have some fun?

Recent times would suggest so. If you can't trust a voter to tell you the truth.... you've lost your polling career.

by TopHat24/7 Thu 26 May 2016, 2:52 pm

No evidence polling respondents ever actively lied. Sorry Russ.

by SecretFly Thu 26 May 2016, 3:01 pm

If a poll is way out from a final result...folks have lied - or the old science is failing to evolve with the more complex motivations of a more educated and informed society.

by SecretFly Thu 26 May 2016, 3:02 pm

.......... I think folks are lying.

I would Wink

by Duty281 Thu 26 May 2016, 3:04 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:It's 53-47 for Remain in the poll of polls; accounting for turnout that means Remain are a whisker ahead.

And starting tonight is the first television debate - Liam Fox and Diane James against Alex Salmond and Alan Johnson.

The television debates, and there are many, are excellent opportunities for the Leave side. They have the stronger arguments, and millions of people will be watching.

No it doesn't.

Next?

Yes it does. 6 point lead and a 60% turnout, altogether equals a narrow Remain lead.

https://yougov.co.uk/turnout-o-meter/?turnout=60&overallremaing=6&agefactor=1&classfactor=1

by **Pr4wn** Thu 26 May 2016, 3:06 pm

Like I said, your tears will be all the more delicious once the result comes out.

by Duty281 Thu 26 May 2016, 3:08 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Poll of polls carries "online" polling...

I haven't seen Ed Miliband standing outside number Ten recently...

Liam Fox ??......That's another 2% going to Remain right there before he opens his mouth...

Is he bringing his male friend with him ??

Online polling is slightly overstated to Leave; Phone polling is slightly overstated to Remain.

It's a great balance.

Except it isn't because phone polling (despite over-sampling Labour) tends to be a more accurate barometer of polling actions as you strip out the keyboard warrior element.

Next?

What is this keyboard warrior element you keep referring to?

People sign up to polling companies (such as YouGov), then when a survey comes around, they want a certain number of each demographic to fill out the requisite numbers for aforementioned survey.

I'm signed up to YouGov, and I get an e-mail when they want a survey filled out. If I'm too late, and they already have enough respondents from my demographic, I won't get a chance to answer. (Some of the surveys are very odd, just the other day I was asked how I thought Postman Pat and Del Boy would vote in the referendum!).

It's not like someone hosting a public poll on the Telegraph newspaper website, and a stampede of Leavers click the Leave box until the mouse breaks.

by Duty281 Thu 26 May 2016, 3:10 pm

Pr4wn wrote:Like I said, your tears will be all the more delicious once the result comes out.

I'll say it again in-case it wasn't clear - Remain are ahead!

And I only have one working tear duct, so there won't be many tears.

Sorry.

by SecretFly Thu 26 May 2016, 3:12 pm

Duty281 wrote:Some of the surveys are very odd, just the other day I was asked how I thought Postman Pat and Del Boy would vote in the referendum!.

Wonderful stuff. Russ must be moonlighting with YouGov

by TopHat24/7 Thu 26 May 2016, 3:53 pm

SecretFly wrote:If a poll is way out from a final result...folks have lied - or the old science is failing to evolve with the more complex motivations of a more educated and informed society.

No, it means the polling failed. It doesn't mean those polled lied.

It's nothing new. It's called sample bias. Try googling it, as well as the invesitgation into what went wrong with GE15 while you're at it.

by TopHat24/7 Thu 26 May 2016, 3:54 pm

Duty281 wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:It's 53-47 for Remain in the poll of polls; accounting for turnout that means Remain are a whisker ahead.

And starting tonight is the first television debate - Liam Fox and Diane James against Alex Salmond and Alan Johnson.

The television debates, and there are many, are excellent opportunities for the Leave side. They have the stronger arguments, and millions of people will be watching.

No it doesn't.

Next?

Yes it does. 6 point lead and a 60% turnout, altogether equals a narrow Remain lead.

https://yougov.co.uk/turnout-o-meter/?turnout=60&overallremaing=6&agefactor=1&classfactor=1

6 points is 6 points, it's not a whisker no matter how you try to spin it.

by SecretFly Thu 26 May 2016, 3:59 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:
SecretFly wrote:If a poll is way out from a final result...folks have lied - or the old science is failing to evolve with the more complex motivations of a more educated and informed society.

Know, it means the polling failed. It doesn't mean those polled lied.

It's nothing new. It's called sample bias. Try googling it, as well as the invesitgation into what went wrong with GE15 while you're at it.

It's called a great excuse for being totally wrong. Google 'Excuse'.

by TopHat24/7 Thu 26 May 2016, 3:59 pm

Duty281 wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Poll of polls carries "online" polling...

I haven't seen Ed Miliband standing outside number Ten recently...

Liam Fox ??......That's another 2% going to Remain right there before he opens his mouth...

Is he bringing his male friend with him ??

Online polling is slightly overstated to Leave; Phone polling is slightly overstated to Remain.

It's a great balance.

Except it isn't because phone polling (despite over-sampling Labour) tends to be a more accurate barometer of polling actions as you strip out the keyboard warrior element.

Next?

What is this keyboard warrior element you keep referring to?

People sign up to polling companies (such as YouGov), then when a survey comes around, they want a certain number of each demographic to fill out the requisite numbers for aforementioned survey.

I'm signed up to YouGov, and I get an e-mail when they want a survey filled out. If I'm too late, and they already have enough respondents from my demographic, I won't get a chance to answer. (Some of the surveys are very odd, just the other day I was asked how I thought Postman Pat and Del Boy would vote in the referendum!).

It's not like someone hosting a public poll on the Telegraph newspaper website, and a stampede of Leavers click the Leave box until the mouse breaks.

I'm also a YouGov member.

That's not how telephone polling works though.

It's all about behavioural sciences. Basically people are more likely to be opinonated (in a controversial or against the grain away) when they can hide their opinion behind an anonymous click on a computer screen. The liklihood of that opinion being sustained when asked by another human being over the phone is reduced (shame/lack of conviction factor) and further reduced when asked in person or when voters are faced with the reality of their vote slip.

It's a large part of why, despite all the hoopla, Tories smashed the polls in GE15 - when it came down to it, no matter how easy it was to bash the gov't, more people got to the booth and said, "you know what, I'm actually better off now than I was a few years ago and see tht continuing under the Tories most likely". So that's how the voting went, but people were too ashamed to admit it to pollsters in advance.

by SecretFly Thu 26 May 2016, 4:03 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:So that's how the voting went, but people were too ashamed to admit it to pollsters in advance.

So what did they do?

by TopHat24/7 Thu 26 May 2016, 4:04 pm

SecretFly wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
SecretFly wrote:If a poll is way out from a final result...folks have lied - or the old science is failing to evolve with the more complex motivations of a more educated and informed society.

Know, it means the polling failed. It doesn't mean those polled lied.

It's nothing new. It's called sample bias. Try googling it, as well as the invesitgation into what went wrong with GE15 while you're at it.

It's called a great excuse for being totally wrong. Google 'Excuse'.

Go back to school Russell. If you'd concentrated as much in maths class as you apparently did in advanced chaucer you might not look so stupid so often.

by SecretFly Thu 26 May 2016, 4:07 pm

So what did they do?

by TopHat24/7 Thu 26 May 2016, 4:09 pm

SecretFly wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:So that's how the voting went, but people were too ashamed to admit it to pollsters in advance.

So what did they do?

What did who do?

Not the first time it's been said, but what are you on about Russ??

by SecretFly Thu 26 May 2016, 4:11 pm

Oh???..................... I picked you out for a wise one.

I may have to revise.

What did they do, Top?

by **Pr4wn** Thu 26 May 2016, 4:14 pm

This thread is derailing into quite a petty argument. Toppy, stay away from the personal remarks.

Super, get to the damned point.

by TopHat24/7 Thu 26 May 2016, 4:19 pm

SecretFly wrote:Oh???..................... I picked you out for a wise one.

I may have to revise.

What did they do, Top?

WHAT DID WHO DO YOU %£&$)%&£)&(%&£&%£()%&£(%&*£&%_£&%(£$&%_"£$*&%_$£)*_%$*£%_$£*% [in deference to Prawn]??????

by **Hero** Thu 26 May 2016, 4:21 pm

Who do voodoo?

by SecretFly Thu 26 May 2016, 4:26 pm

Pr4wn wrote:This thread is derailing into quite a petty argument. Toppy, stay away from the personal remarks.

Super, get to the damned point.

The point is there....in print. I hate repeating myself so that lazy lads don't have to go over what they've just posted.

Top knows what's up there. He made a statement. I isolated a quote from it and put my question in at the end. It's there.

by **Pr4wn** Thu 26 May 2016, 4:29 pm

You're being deliberately obtuse in order to provoke an adverse response.

by No 7&1/2 Thu 26 May 2016, 4:37 pm

They lied, is the point.

by TopHat24/7 Thu 26 May 2016, 4:45 pm

They didn't, is the point.

Or at least there's no proof they did.

Again, sample bias, we're all on computers/smartphones - can some people please load f*cking google and make some god damn use of it??!!

by **Hero** Thu 26 May 2016, 4:51 pm

Google wrote:In statistics, sampling bias is a bias in which a sample is collected in such a way that some members of the intended population are less likely to be included than others.

by TopHat24/7 Thu 26 May 2016, 5:11 pm

Hero wrote:
Google wrote:In statistics, sampling bias is a bias in which a sample is collected in such a way that some members of the intended population are less likely to be included than others.

by SecretFly Thu 26 May 2016, 5:24 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:They didn't, is the point.

Or at least there's no proof they did.

Again, sample bias, we're all on computers/smartphones - can some people please load f*cking google and make some god damn use of it??!!

Which proves there is no proof that they didn't lie.

Even those who say 'Undecided' can be lying. They've already made up their minds but ain't saying. Happens all the time. That's lying.

It then becomes a matter of taste. You claim nobody would lie to pollsters; some sort of Religious obedience to the science or some such thing.
I, on the other hand, claim otherwise.... and say humans are a mischievous lot.

by TopHat24/7 Thu 26 May 2016, 5:26 pm

Ok Russell.....

by SecretFly Thu 26 May 2016, 5:32 pm

Everytime you say Russell, I put an extra star on my fuselage. Wink

It's code.

by Duty281 Thu 26 May 2016, 6:55 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Poll of polls carries "online" polling...

I haven't seen Ed Miliband standing outside number Ten recently...

Liam Fox ??......That's another 2% going to Remain right there before he opens his mouth...

Is he bringing his male friend with him ??

Online polling is slightly overstated to Leave; Phone polling is slightly overstated to Remain.

It's a great balance.

Except it isn't because phone polling (despite over-sampling Labour) tends to be a more accurate barometer of polling actions as you strip out the keyboard warrior element.

Next?

What is this keyboard warrior element you keep referring to?

People sign up to polling companies (such as YouGov), then when a survey comes around, they want a certain number of each demographic to fill out the requisite numbers for aforementioned survey.

I'm signed up to YouGov, and I get an e-mail when they want a survey filled out. If I'm too late, and they already have enough respondents from my demographic, I won't get a chance to answer. (Some of the surveys are very odd, just the other day I was asked how I thought Postman Pat and Del Boy would vote in the referendum!).

It's not like someone hosting a public poll on the Telegraph newspaper website, and a stampede of Leavers click the Leave box until the mouse breaks.

I'm also a YouGov member.

That's not how telephone polling works though.

It's all about behavioural sciences. Basically people are more likely to be opinonated (in a controversial or against the grain away) when they can hide their opinion behind an anonymous click on a computer screen. The liklihood of that opinion being sustained when asked by another human being over the phone is reduced (shame/lack of conviction factor) and further reduced when asked in person or when voters are faced with the reality of their vote slip.

It's a large part of why, despite all the hoopla, Tories smashed the polls in GE15 - when it came down to it, no matter how easy it was to bash the gov't, more people got to the booth and said, "you know what, I'm actually better off now than I was a few years ago and see tht continuing under the Tories most likely". So that's how the voting went, but people were too ashamed to admit it to pollsters in advance.

Makes no logical sense whatsoever.

You say people are more likely to be opinionated when they select their choice anonymously - so exactly like when they're in the voting booth?! Fair enough, they may be shy when talking to a person, but you don't talk to someone when you cast your vote on the day.

The Tories did better than the polls anticipated simply because their voters turned out in a far greater number than Labour ones. And Leave will do better than what the polls anticipate because their voters will turn out in a far greater number than Remain.

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