PGA Tour: JustIn Time: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

1).Justin Thomas won convincingly at Kapalua and is in the form of his life; just like Hideki Matsuyama, the man he beat. Each player won on the "Asian" swing and go again this week, at Waialae Country Club and the Sony Open. Thomas has already shot a round of 61 at Waialae, though Hideki has yet to score a top 75 in four trips.

2).So: How good is Justin Thomas? His PGA Tour career was launched amid hyperbolic hoo ha (played his first PGA Tour event at age 16) but stalled when he struggled to "graduate" from the web.com Tour.
Since then, though, it's been a steady trajectory up the leaderboards and rankings. But the fact is that he's yet to win a full field event and has sometimes looked more likely to bottle winning opportunities rather than grasp them with both hands.
His Sunday experiences have shown both sides of his game:
~Shooting up leaderboards to earn "backdoor" top tens . . . . . .
~ . . . . but just as often relinquishing contending positions.
Not dissimilar to a young Duval and look what happened when he finally won one!

3).Thomas hits it as far as he wants, wildly sometimes but that increasingly won't matter on most courses he plays. His iron game is better than Tour average, but his short game about average, all a bit Dustin-esque.
Davis Love made no secret of the fact he wanted Justin to earn his way on to last year's Ryder Cup Team, but he came up short.
He has a good Walker Cup under his belt and is in prime position to play on Stricker's Presidents Cup Team. He'll be in all this year's Majors and WGC's so learning to compete and contend there may be his next step. Nothing better than a PGA Championship 18th and yet to contend in any WGC so far. But he's already tied Rickie Fowler in Tour wins and you'd think he should add to them this year, and be an owgr Top Ten fixture for at least the coming season. Only 23 and the golfing world at his feet.

4).Stricker's Presidents Cup Team will doubtless be a strong one and Dustin & Justin have already created some distance between them and the field in the qualifying table. Next eight automatic places currently filled by:
Spieth, Reed, Berger, Moore, Steele, Piercy, Chappell, Snedeker, with Koepka #11 and Jimmy Walker & Phil close behind.

5).Golf Digest has had a bad editorial year, but there have been a couple of interesting issues so far in 2017. "January" featured the blow-by-blow account of the Stenson/Mickelson duel at Troon and "February" has a short but compelling interview with Pete Cowen. It also has some intriguing lists:

6).Their selection of the Top 100 US Golf Courses is always fascinating reading. The Top 10 is largely unchanged from two years ago, but Pine Valley leapfrogs Augusta National as it reaches #1. The other Top ten:
Pine Valley, Augusta Nat, Cypress Point, Shinnecock, Oakmont, Merion, Pebble Beach, National GL, Sand Hills, Winged Foot. Other notables include:
Seminole (13), Muirfield Village (15), Oak Hill (20), Riviera (24), Erin Hills (44), TPC Sawgrass (51), (Shotrock's) Aronomink (78), Kapalua (112), Harbour Town (127).

7).And Golf Digest's "Money" list is also published, with Rory at the head of the field with $49+M.
On course earnings Top 5:
McIlroy: $17.5M
DJohnson: $12.7M
Day: $8.8M
Reed: $8.3M
Scott: $8.2M

8).Off-course earnings:
Palmer: $40M
Woods: $34.6M
Mickelson: $33.5M
McIlroy: $32M
Spieth: $24M

9).Waialae CC should see fine weather throughout this week's Sony Open, mostly very light winds and scoring will be low, possibly very low, showers possible but golden showers probably not.
It's a horses-for-courses, fairways and greens, Par-70, so it's predictable the sort of player who will finish well, not so easy to pick which ones will ride a hot putter, a la Russell Henley a few years ago, to victory.
I like Jason Dufner to have a good each-way kind of week, but the field is strong led by Spieth and Matsuyama, plus of course Justin Thomas. Russell Knox, Justin Rose and Paul Casey lead Team GB.

10).Much is made of golfers who finished "High" school in 2011, Spieth, Grillo, Berger, Patrick Rodgers, not to mention other hot-shots who have so far not broken through. (No idea about corresponding golfers from other parts of the world who may or may not have even stayed in school until the age of 18.)
And Justin Thomas is another one, linked as mates and golfers inextricably with Jordan Spieth and time will tell if he proves to be sufficiently successful to create his own superstar identity. Jury still out in my opinion, but these guys are only 23 so, to paraphrase Counting Crows: "It's all a lot of oysters", but how many pearls?

Well done Justin!

Speaking of Paddy and winning majors ... reminds me of a bet I made here on this forum! O well ...

Some golf, and what an incredible raft of players on such decent form.

#overrated

John Jacobs, dead at 91.

Probably the wrong thread, but one of the last of a great generation of influential GB&I golfing men. (Peter Alliss still mumbling into his Burgundy no doubt.)

robopz wrote:

kwinigolfer wrote:Those Mitsubishi commercials are uniformly awful, all of them, embarrassing to watch. What were they thinking?

IMO the fact they are so intentionally awkward, it makes 'em hilarious. And if you remember them, then they worked.

Not necessarily. It's not just about brand recognition, it's also about what it stands for.

For example, I will never use the website "go compare" due to their irritiating adverts in the UK. Robo you can probably find them on youtube but I'm not going to post a link because I don't want to inflict them on you!

Ha ha, that's the example I would go for too Ray, and I'll never buy anything endorsed by Jamie Oliver, Heston Blumenthal or Lorraine Kelly either, I despise them and I have to turn the sound off when that awful Oak Furniture land adverts.
I'll also never buy a Vauxhall, though that's not really anything to do with advertising other than it's just a horrible marque.

Shotrock wrote:Jaguars are great Indian cars! I like the F type convertible.

Tata have done an amazing job with Jaguar. As super commented it was in a right state under Ford. Now it's probably the manufacturer of the most aspirational cars today. Range Rover is the car of choice for every premiership footballer getting their first big pay cheque, as well as everyone else from Prince William to drug dealers.

Ray - I've had a Range Rover Sport (HSE) for two years now ... absolute BEST car I have ever owned. Hands down.

I did purchase the extended warranty (which now pretty much assures that I will not have any issues until it expires!).

Should also add I'm not a drug dealer.

(I'm in the oldest profession in the world ... hey, first you have to advertise.)

Shotrock wrote:Should also add I'm not a drug dealer.

(I'm in the oldest profession in the world ... hey, first you have to advertise.)

Prostitution?

I've always thought that a stupid description. Surely if being a hooker was the oldest profession, there couldn't possibly be a single client, as they'd have no means of payment.

Folk round here will do owt fer a bag o chips

Ray... Thanks, but no need for me to go find go compare, I get your point.

I guess the point with me is... I'm rarely offended by who's hawking a product or service. The objective of celebrity endorsements is to get you to pay attention to the product/service message and if it does that, it's generally done its job. That's my point on the Mitsubishi adverts. Because of the awkward hilariousness of those spots, I watch, laugh and now I know about that product. I don't happen to need single room climate control, but if I did... I'd sure take a look at Mitsubishi before I made a decision.

First Hideki's run... Now JT on a helluva run of form. JT seems to have it figured out, these things don't last forever, so make the most of it while you can. Still maybe 50/50 at best he wins this thing, but that's great odds after just one round.

Only trouble with that is: They may be awkward, toe curlingly awkward in fact, but they missed out the hilariousness part.

Beyond dreadful which, in my mind at least, reflects very badly on the product. Not to mention the pro (usually Funk, Pavin or Couples) who allows themselves to be humiliated, just for cash they scarcely need.

super_realist wrote:I've always thought that a stupid description. Surely if being a hooker was the oldest profession, there couldn't possibly be a single client, as they'd have no  means of payment.

Trade? Barter?

Bit of a George Michael finish to Rory's round there.

kwinigolfer wrote:Only trouble with that is: They may be awkward, toe curlingly awkward in fact, but they missed out the hilariousness part.

Beyond dreadful which, in my mind at least, reflects very badly on the product. Not to mention the pro (usually Funk, Pavin or Couples) who allows themselves to be humiliated, just for cash they scarcely need.

Different strokes for different folks I guess... I just can't imagine how any of it reflects negatively on the product? Did something about Awkward Couples convince you a Mitsubishi AC can't cool your room? And if that's what the pro's want to do... more power to them, I could really care less. I don't see them as humiliating themselves... more like laughing at themselves... I simply get a chuckle out of them and move on...

Wouldn't th earliest trade have been rocks exchanging between monkeys or something?


Super

What's a George Michael finish?

Fell asleep at the wheel. Very careless.

What clubs is Rory using?

Not been able to watch any of the golf this week, I hope a commentator slipped a too many water features at doral gag in somewhere?

Callaway Epic Driver
Callaway Apex MB Irons,
Vokey Wedges
Odyssey Putter according to media.

McLaren wrote:Not been able to watch any of the golf this week, I hope a commentator slipped a too many water features at doral gag in somewhere?

Does Doral have any golden water features?

Only in the presidential suite

super_realist wrote:I've always thought that a stupid description. Surely if being a hooker was the oldest profession, there couldn't possibly be a single client, as they'd have no  means of payment.

Oldest profession in the service sector?

I think Rory has stuck with a Scotty putter? Pre event publicity was for Odyssey, but pretty sure it was Scotty yesterday.

Given his great play after switching to the scotty at the end of last season it would be odd if he had dumped it already.

Justin Thomas's 59 had a z-score of 3.64

That's better than Jim Furyk's Z-Score of 3.38 when he shot 58 at the Travelers.

It has a good chance of being the Round of the 2017 (in terms of Z-Score)

68.25-Avg Round 1 Score
2.54---Std Deviation

Edited to add: Sneds final round 69 at the Farmers last year had a z-score of 2.85.

WHat is a Z Score?

Incidently, has anyone ever made a 59 from a par 71 or 72 course?

super:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfect_round

Z-Score

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_score

(Field Avg - Thomas's Score) / Standard Deviation

(68.25-59.00)/2.54 = 3.85

There were only 5 scores during the 2016-17 PGATour with Z-scores better than 3.0

3.01 Brendan Steele Valero Rd 1 - 64
3.25 Ken Duke Players Rd 3 - 65
3.35 Jhonattan Vegas Barbarsol Rd 2 - 60
3.05 Si Woo Kim Wyndham Rd 3 - 60
3.38 Jim Furyk Travelers Rd 4 - 58

Theoretically, the chances of a PGATour round getting a Z-score of 3.64 is about 1 in 10,000 rounds

The chances of a 3.00 Z-Score is about 1 in 1000.

Thanks GPB. Puts some nice perspective on just how good Thomas's round was - pretty amazing. I bet he feels like he can do anything at all with his game just now - needs to run with it while it's all milk and honey.

Be nice to see a three ball with Thomas, Matsuyama and Noren and see who came out on top.

Be good to see Tiger's Z scores for some of his dominant wins like the 97 masters, 00 US open and 00 open.

Just watching today's recording and Rory's putter def says Odyssey.

'You travelling anywhere exotic this winter puligny?

Kwini - nothing on this year. Lot of family stuff and Mrs P busy working so basking in Hampshire sunshine! Will make up for it next year. Just watching golf from SA and we have some friends heading down there next week, so feeling really happy for them!
Are you stuck with snow shovelling?

Nah, But that'll come no doubt.
Global warming giving us rain instead of snow - apart from the fact that's it's a bit parky (balmy mid/low 20's - about -6C?) you could play if the courses weren't all closed.
No doubt a friend's course in CNY is open: "I can grow grass but I can't grow cash", so golf carts presumably chewing up his fairways.

There's a big winter voyage somewhere (Aussie Open Tennis in Melbourne on my bucket list), just not quite sure where/when.

Sergio and Adam Scott playing in Singapore next week in an Asian Tour event, co-sanctioned with the Japanese Tour.

You gonna get the ice storm, GPB?


No-one making a run at Justin Thomas, margin still three strokes. Scoring seems less spectacular today but weather looks the same. Surely the Tour's not hiding pins . . . . .
Gonzo starting well, let's hope it continues. For the next seven months.

GPB wrote:Justin Thomas's 59 had a z-score of 3.64

That's better than Jim Furyk's Z-Score of 3.38 when he shot 58 at the Travelers.

It has a good chance of being the Round of the 2017 (in terms of Z-Score)

68.25-Avg Round 1 Score
2.54---Std Deviation

Edited to add: Sneds final round 69 at the Farmers last year had a z-score of 2.85.

NERD ALERT

I go back and forth on the validity of Z scores...  I fully understand the concept, but not sure I buy into Z score as a better measure than score vs field average.  

Here's an example of why...

Let's say I take yesterday's field of 144 players and split it in two groups of 72 players...

I leave the top-15 (#1-15) and bottom 15 scores (#58-72) in each group alone.

In the top group of 72 players I take scores #16-#36 and I subtract 2 shots from each, then I take scores #37-#57 and I add 2 shots to each.

In the bottom half of the field I do exactly the opposite starting from the bottom up. (#16-#36 add 2 shots and #37-#57 subtract 2 shots)

The net result is...

The scoring average for the entire field remains exactly the same 68.24.  

The 59 remains the same 9.24 shots better than the field average.

The top-72 scores remains the same scoring average
The bottom 72 scores remains the same scoring average.

The 59 remains the same margin to the 15 best scores, 30 middle scores and 15 worst scores

BUT... since I've changed the distribution of the 42 middle scores in each half of the field (but NOT the total of those scores)... I've raise the standard deviation on the entire field from 2.54 to 3.02.  And now JT's Z-score gets worse, going from 3.64 to 3.06.

So I ask myself... simply by changing the distribution of the middle 42 scores in each half of the field... would it make JT's 59 more or less of an accomplishment?   IMO it makes absolutely NO difference at all even though Z-score indicates the accomplishment is much less.

In addition to the above... THIS is how the 8 sub-60 rounds on the PGA Tour would rate in terms of Z-score...


Sc - R - CP Und -To FA - Mar FA - StDev- ZScr- Player - Event
59 - 2 - 72 -13 - 13.00 - 6 72.00 - 3.31 - 3.93 - Al Geiberger - 1977 Memphis
59 - 2 - 71 -12 - 12.09 - 6 71.09 - 3.15 - 3.83 - Jim Furyk - 2013 BMW Championship
59 - 5 - 72 -13 - 10.68 - 5 69.68 - 3.14 - 3.40 - David Duval - 1999 Bob Hope
58 - 4 - 70 -12 - 10.66 - 3 68.66 - 3.15 - 3.38 - Jim Furyk - 2016 Travelers Championship
59 - 1 - 71 -12 - 10.51 - 1 69.51 - 2.94 - 3.58 - Paul Goydos - 2010 John Deere Classic
59 - 3 - 72 -13 - 10.48 - 4 69.48 - 3.05 - 3.44 - Chip Beck - 1991 Las Vegas
59 - 1 - 70 -11 - 9.24 - 3 68.24 - 2.54 - 3.64 - Justin Thomas - 2017 Sony Open in Hawaii
59 - 4 - 70 -11 - 8.58 - 4 67.58 - 2.69 - 3.19 - Stuart Appleby - 2010 Greenbrier Classic

In addition to the above... IMO we need to be VERY careful in looking at conditions in which various scores were shot... Were they pre cut or post cut... and were there special conditions to each.  Here they are for each...

Al Geiberger - 1977 Memphis - LCP - Pre Cut
Jim Furyk - 2013 BMW Championship - No Cut 70 players
David Duval - 1999 Bob Hope - In contention on Sunday
Jim Furyk - 2016 Travelers Championship - In contention on Sunday
Paul Goydos - 2010 John Deere Classic - LCP - Pre Cut
Chip Beck - 1991 Las Vegas - Played on easiest of 3 courses - don't have course by course scoring - Pre Cut
Justin Thomas - 2017 Sony Open in Hawaii - None
Stuart Appleby - 2010 Greenbrier Classic - In contention on Sunday


For instance... Geiberger and Goydos shot their 59's with lift clean and place in effect.  Furyks 59 was in a no cut event. Duval's, and Appleby's 59's were shot in contention in the 4th round, as was Furyk's 58.  Beck's was shot on what was probably the easiest of the 3 courses in use in Las Vegas at the time and I don't have the course by course scoring breakdown.

McLaren wrote:Be good to see Tiger's Z scores for some of his dominant wins like the 97 masters, 00 US open and 00 open.

Tiger's best Z-Score in the 2000 USOpen (by round) was 2.68 in Round 1. He shot 65, field average was 74.54 and StDev was 3.56.

His Z-score for the final score was 4.11.
,
In the 2000 Open Champ, none of individual round scores had a Z-Score greater than 2, his total score Z-score was 3.11

In the 1997 Masters, Round 3 was his best Z-score (2.65), his total score Z-score was 3.2.

In 2006, Phil Mickelson won the Atlanta tournament by 13 shots, He had a Z-Score of 3.20 in Round 1, and a total round Z-Score of 4.35. I doubt if there is a modern tournament with better Z-score than this one.

Warning: Nerd Alert

There are some known drawbacks about Z-scores on golf scores and golf tournaments

1. Golf scores are discrete numbers, not continuous. Z-scores work best when working with continuous numbers. Fortunately, the sample size of golf scores are usually enough to make the data set appear to continuous. Calculating Z-scores for limited field events like HWC and Tournament of Champions gets much fuzzier.

2. Working in Z-scores for Majors gets fuzzy because the talent field gets diluted on the tail end, mostly before the cut. The Masters has past champions in the field, the US Open and Open Championship has a bunch of non-Major-Tour players in the field, and the PGA has 20-25 Club Pros in the field. That can skew the field average and really skew the Standard Deviation higher.

3. Full Field PGATour events typically only have 5-8 players that are non Tour Players.

kwinigolfer wrote:You gonna get the ice storm, GPB?

Doesn't look like it. We are far enough South, the temperatures are going to remain above freezing.

We might have got a trace of freezing rain early this morning, but it warmed up enough at daylight that it didn't affect anything.

More Nerd Alert

One other thing about Z-Scores for the Total Score.

The Central Limit Theorem says data tends to regress towards the mean. I think a bonafide statisticians would be more skeptical of Tournament score Z-scores than individual round Z-scores.

That means the Standard Deviation typically gets smaller and smaller as you "massage" the data, which will inflate the Z-score.

On a statistical basis, I understand what you are saying. But in the particular sport of golf,  I'm not sure that doing this type of statistical comparison via Z-score is necessarily any better than using field scoring average.  And the main reason is there's just too many other variables that aren't/can't being taken into account in BOTH situations.  

I mean I can certainly accept that the data confirms Geiberger's 59 was better than Appleby's (by both Z-score, and Field average)... and Furyk's 59 (not his 58) was probably the next best relative to his field (even though breaking a NEW barrier elevates Furyk's 58)   But for most the rest in the middle... IMO it becomes much more difficult to definitively say one is better than the other unless all the other conditions are somehow factored in.  I don't know how to do that.

And even moving those 42 mid scores in each group 1 shot instead of 2 (like I did in my prior example) still yields a difference of about 2/10ths of Z-score point... that's a significant move considering Z-score ranges.

I'd like to discuss this more... but I've gotta run... Thanks for the exchange... also see your PM's and email.

Robo: If you are going to make notations on the 59s, I think it should be mentioned that Geibergers 59 was shot on a 7400 yd course with 1970's technology.

IMO, Furyk's 59 was the most impressive. Yes, it was against a shorter field, but it was against an entire field of PGATour players. Absolutely no dilution in talent to skew scores upward, however that would tend to skew the Standard Deviation to be smaller.

Furyk's 59 was also in the Beemer, not just "an entire field of PGATour players", but the 70 (mostly) in-form top players.

Glad you're missing the ice . . . . . . . . were you here in 1998?