Aus coming to India

First topic message reminder :

Australia squad Steven Smith (capt), David Warner, Matt Renshaw, Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Peter Handscomb, Glenn Maxwell, Matthew Wade (wk), Mitchell Marsh, Ashton Agar, Steve O'Keefe, Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Swepson, Josh Hazlewood, Jackson Bird, Nathan Lyon

Aus has declared their squad and they have 4 spinners + Maxwell who can bowl spin....and smith too can


and only 3 seamers in the squad....implies they will play 2 seamers and 3 spinners

india should produces pitches like they did vs NZ and SA.....krumblers and not the types they did vs Eng

KP_fan wrote:a wicket last ball before lunch turned a great session for India into still a good one....
half of session runs came in last 30 minutes and Vijay got carried away by his own momentum to be stumped

India needs to go throuhg this session with no more than a wicket

Which means Pujara and Rahane have a lot to do

Kohli really has come back to earth after a superlative run of form : I guess nobody can expect to perform at the level he had reached indefinitely ; but he really hasn't looked the same player in this series - not just the lack of runs , but some poor dismissals. This one was reminiscent of his troubles outside off stump in England...

Cummins has looked easily the most threatening Australian bowler in this innings. He will need some help if he's to get through the rest of the lineup on this pitch though. Important he isn't overloaded given what has tended to happen to him in the past every time he has played a four or five day game.

a 110+ run session and 2 wickets gone...both to Cummins.....and although it will appear that both kohli  and Rahane fell to poor shots...it was the pressure created by aggressive fast bowling.

however India has managed little 30 to 50 run partnerships.....and give the ease of pitch will continue to do so all the way down to number 10.

Aus Spinners have looked thoroughly ineffective......and so a sudden collapse looks less likely.

400ish at the end of the day for 5 or 6 down is the expected scoreline

alfie wrote:

Kohli really has come back to earth after a superlative run of form : I guess nobody can expect to perform at the level he had reached indefinitely ; but he really hasn't looked the same player in this series - not just the lack of runs , but some poor dismissals. This one was reminiscent of his troubles outside off stump in England...

 that's a good observation on Kohli...he's looking like he did in Eng,  shaky, unsure of his off stump and leaves....

which to me shows it's not so much "technique and conditions"....... but "confidence and focus" that affects his batting...

he has lost confidence and is unsure......

I have to go out now - will be interested to see what how it finishes up tonight.
Expect India to be 400 odd at the close : if they still have five wickets in hand they're on top ; six down fairly even , more than that advantage Australia.

Think Australia have bowled quite well , although the spinners haven't looked too dangerous : but tiredness is going to kick in eventually.

Nair is a shaky starter......and  the flaw with him is he plays the ball too early.....at the start of his inning....so if one turns / swings or moves of the seam late...he is caught playing down the initial line of the ball...

only in that 303 run inning did we see him adjust his reflexes to the late movements of the ball......

KP_fan wrote:Nair is a shaky starter......and  the flaw with him is he plays the ball too early.....at the start of his inning....so if one turns / swings or moves of the seam late...he is caught playing down the initial line of the ball...

only in that 303 run inning did we see him adjust his reflexes to the late movements of the ball......

and he falls to his weakness...yet again.....playing down the initial line of the ball and failing to cover the late reverse inswing

in hindsight....Aus aught to have played a 3rd seamer instead of one of OKeefe or Lyon...both of whom are completely ineffective....

this pitch has reverse swing for anyone who is ready to bend his back....ball close to 140kph and full

India need to not lose a wicket  now until the end of play and add another 50 odd

last 10 overs have yielded only 12 runs...like the start of the play today..India has been choked

6th down and Cummins yet again get a wicket off a short one....bending his back and generating disconcerting lift of a length

he may break down after this test of next....but is not holding himself back

lead looking not likely for India now...India has to work hard to comee close to Aus total

Come back to discover runs seem to have dried up as well as two wickets falling ...

Bit surprised : has the pitch started playing tricks ?

alfie wrote:Come back to discover runs seem to have dried up as well as two wickets falling ...

Bit surprised : has the pitch started playing tricks ?

just good bowling by Cummins and Hazlewood....especially Cummins.....both getting reverse and Cummins getting surprise lift / bounce every now and then through his dug in effort balls.

spinners still not effective...doing stock bowling
that's why i said in hind sight aus would have done well to pick one more seamer instead of one of Lyon or OK

--Hard fought day won by Aus... ..only the two fast bowlers were able to extract reverse swing and since they tire and cannot bowl effort balls all the time....it's possible to get 30 to 40 runs partnerships all the time on this pitch..



although only Vijay and Pujara played long innings for Indian...each one of the 5 Indian players remaining i.e pujara, Saha, Jadeja  and even Yadav and Ishant need to make an effort to hang in there...don't throw away your wicket....its possible to hang in....

--after every barrage of intense pace bowling spells will come easy overs to score....and India has to match the Aussie total at the very least....means they have to bat out the morning sessions tomm.

and then a lead would be bonus

--result is inevitable in my view...the pitch will be explosive when Ashwin and Jadeja bowl tomm and India have ishant and Yadav who can both reverse 

match is proverbial going down to the wire in a single inning shoot out.

--Also not a good idea by India to have a long series against two tough opponents one after the other in the same seasons

The Eng series was tough, draining and its unrealistic to sustain the same intensity for another 4 test series against equally tough Aussies......
India are mentally drained and physically tired too....you can see ashwin is a bit flat with the ball and his batting has completely fallen apart...

anyway they have to summon up all reserves and go through 7 more days of test cricket...

Thanks KP_f : six down doesn't surprise me as much as that India only made sixty in the session . I'd have expected Pujara to collect a few more - but I guess losing the two partners made him keep his head down.

Ninety behind still so India may still get a lead but not until after lunch tomorrow : too late to be expecting to force a result , surely ? And I can't see Smith declaring and offering a chance either so suspect (barring a rattle of wickets tomorrow morning ) both teams will settle for a draw and leave the last game to decide the series.

Ashwin has totally lost his batting mojo , hasn't he ? India will be hoping Jadeja is up for it tomorrow , as he's the best candidate to monster what will surely be a tired Australian attack.

Good Test Match. And good pitch , after all the media rhubarb before the start.

Ha . Crossed posts...

I see we disagree about the chances of a result

We will see. I just can't see this "explosive" pitch for Ashwin and Jadeja , unless it has changed a lot ...Lyon and O'Keefe haven't looked likely to bowl anyone out on it.

Is this a good pitch? This match has been fecking boring compared to the last two

Any day, give me a strip like those for the first 2 than this one. But to be fair, this hasn't been an absolute road though pretty much oriented towards the batsman. They get plenty of those in limited overs, test cricket is more interesting when the bowler has a bit of an upperhand. Where the batsman has to earn each run.

As for the run rate in the last session, O'Keefe was bowling an outside leg line, from over the wickets, into the rough with a leg sidish field to choke the runs. Pujara faced most of it, he doesn't sweep much, may not ever have used the reverse sweep even in backyard cricket, and didn't try anything fancy to put the bowler off his line. Rahane and Kohli played poor shots to give their wickets away as ddid Vijay, and these were the players who could have tackled the situation differrenttly. The fact that there were already gone further limited Pujara's options.

how I see the match equation....

--there is 180 overs to go...and India is down by 90 runs...and with 14 wickets in hand ( 4 in firsts and 10 in the second)

--Aus when they bat second on this pitch tomorrow( 2nd and 3rd session)  will struggle to get anymore than 180 runs say in 70 overs.....against ashwin and Jadeja

--so India will need to score 90+ 180= 270 runs 
in 180-70= 110 overs
with 14 wickets in hand 

the more the get in first inning...the easier their challenge is in the second inning obviously

since there are no separate threads..it's worth mentioning:


BD is in a winning position at the end of D4 vs Lanka in Lanka....they should win  from where they stand.....but they have flattered to deceive before also...and blown away winning situations

SA beat NZ ----> and on what should be a traditional seaming pitch in NZ.......SA spinners picked 12 wickets.....Mahraj's 8 wickts on a NZ pitch should put him on world wide notice...not too many spinners win matches on a NZ pitch
I am looking forward to watching him  sometime soon
And Maharaj had a 5-for in the only inning he bowled in the rain hit first test
and why wasn't NZ playing their best SLA Santner ?



In his next over, Maharaj produced a delivery he'll want to frame for the rest of his career, the ball pitching on middle and spinning past Colin de Grandhomme's outside edge to hit off stump.


for Jadeja to do that on a roughed up pitch is undertsndable.....but for Mahraj at Basin Reserve...WOW

KP_fan wrote:how I see the match equation....

--there is 180 overs to go...and India is down by 90 runs...and with 14 wickets in hand ( 4 in firsts and 10 in the second)

--Aus when they bat second on this pitch tomorrow( 2nd and 3rd session)  will struggle to get anymore than 180 runs say in 70 overs.....against ashwin and Jadeja

--so India will need to score 90+ 180= 270 runs 
in 180-70= 110 overs
with 14 wickets in hand 

the more the get in first inning...the easier their challenge is in the second inning obviously

KP_f, see where you are coming from but don't share your confidence about Ashwin and Jadeja swiftly cleaning up. Track has played well so far and Australia have displayed considerable application over each of the last three days. The visitors won't want that to go to waste. I'll be surprised if they fold as quickly as you suggest. Like Alfie, I'm going for the draw but my money's staying in my pocket.

Interesting way of looking at it from KP-f : not so sure Australia will be bowled out in 70 overs though...and if they were , might not the second innings for India be a little tricky? as it might suggest the pitch had turned very difficult...

Obviously how many the reminding Indian wickets add will be important. Will reassess when I know the answer to that !

Pujara and Saha come through the morning session - India now only 16 behind with 4 wickets in hand.

A real chance to get a lead of 50-100 runs here

168 overs into the innings and Maxwell has bowled 2

I know he scored a hundred, so the point is a tad redundant...but what's the point of playing an "all rounder" if he literally isn't going to bowl. No wonder these Aussie seamers always break down, bowled into the ground

Ones gotta remember the pitch, scores and script of T4 and T5 vs Eng in Mumbai and Chennai

very similar .....and Eng lasted average 72 overs inn 3rd inning of both those tests after scoring 400 and 470 in first inning.

India should bat as along as they can.....Jadeja will come and accelerate

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:168 overs into the innings and Maxwell has bowled 2

I know he scored a hundred, so the point is a tad redundant...but what's the point of playing an "all rounder" if he literally isn't going to bowl. No wonder these Aussie seamers always break down, bowled into the ground

I saw those two overs....he looks short of a test standard by far even on a spinning pitch

He's just slow-roll-his-arm-over...no spin

KP_fan wrote:since there are no separate threads..it's worth mentioning:


BD is in a winning position at the end of D4 vs Lanka in Lanka....they should win  from where they stand.....but they have flattered to deceive before also...and blown away winning situations

BD chasing 190 are 57-2...needing another 130odd with 8 wickets and 55 overs left

KP_fan wrote:

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:168 overs into the innings and Maxwell has bowled 2

I know he scored a hundred, so the point is a tad redundant...but what's the point of playing an "all rounder" if he literally isn't going to bowl. No wonder these Aussie seamers always break down, bowled into the ground

I saw those two overs....he looks short of a test standard by far even on a spinning pitch

He's just slow-roll-his-arm-over...no spin

Ah yeah he's a rubbish bowler - but you gotta bowl some part timers just so you can give your main 4 a rest. Cummins is now off the field, and Lyon has an injured bowling finger - just have him turn his arm over for a bit

India could do with one of these two starting to get a shift on if they have real ambitions of winning this game

Pujara just padding away O'Keefe when it isn't even spinning is not only mind numbingly boring, its not really helping India's cause

Smith started as a pure leg-spinners and far more potent   bowler,

He should have bowled some overs 

Aus bowling a negative Giles-like line throuhg Okeefe

not much Indians can do.....will lose wickets if they force too much

Australia use their last review for a catch that came off Saha's shoulder - the bad light means they can't see the dressing room to make up their minds for them....

KP_fan wrote:Smith started as a pure leg-spinners and far more potent   bowler,

He should have bowled some overs 

Aus bowling a negative Giles-like line throuhg Okeefe

not much Indians can do.....will lose wickets if they force too much

Think my point with Pujara here is he's not even looking to pickup singles like Saha is - it's been a great innings, but in this situation now I think he needs to try and be a bit more proactive. India have got themselves into a position where they can't lose

99* for saha.....gem of an inning...

continues to punch above his weight this man...and also shows....looking over the shoulder to see another WK and better batsman ( Parthiv) does indeed get the better out of him...

competition for places is good...and Rahane is the next one under the axe...if he doesn't deliver a big inning next test match

Ind will regroup at tea and get their strategy right....should aim to get 120 runs in last session and force an inning defeat tomm

100
Saha

India looking good for a massive lead now . It's been slow - sometimes very slow - but they've turned a potential deficit , and danger , into a can't lose situation ; much as they did against England in the last couple of Tests.
Question is will they have time to force a result ? Basically may have to bowl Australia out in about 75 overs to win ; and I'm not sure they're going to get a lot of help from the pitch. Scoreboard pressure and tiredness will be helping them though...

Finally Pujara's marathon ends ! An epic of concentration

Jadeja should be looking to get set and then really tee off...

Alfie - yep, we've been of the same mind throughout this Test. To win this, I feel atm that India would require a sixth morning. Massive credit to them if they prove me wrong.

Hi guildford

Yes I've definitely been in the "draw" camp since day one ...but I'm starting to get a little concerned for Australia after the way they've been put - slowly - through the mincer over the last couple of days. If Renshaw were to fall early , for example , I wonder if there might not be a few early wickets and a possible panic effect in the dressing room...

If they can get a decent start this evening - whenever India finish - then I think they have a fair chance of batting safely through. But I recall England finding it impossible to summon that sort of rearguard action a little while ago , in very similar circumstances.

Of course this Australian team , for all its batting shortcomings , isn't playing an all rounder at four and two wicketkeepers ...but I am still not sure of anyone other than Smith , Renshaw and possibly Handscomb - though India seem to have his number - batting for time. I know Maxwell did on Friday but I'm doubtful of lightning striking twice...

Aussie commentators wanting Cummins to bowl for the sake of a potential Michelle ???
What about having him able to walk - and hopefully bowl again - next week ?

Ha ! Actually they are playing two wicketkeepers

But Handscomb is rightly in the side as a bat , and Wade in his normal spot...

alfie wrote:Hi guildford

Yes I've definitely been in the "draw" camp since day one ...but I'm starting to get a little concerned for Australia after the way they've been put - slowly - through the mincer over the last couple of days.  If Renshaw were to fall early , for example , I wonder if there might not be a few early wickets and a possible panic effect in the dressing room...

If they can get a decent start this evening - whenever India finish - then I think they have a fair chance of batting safely through. But I recall England finding it impossible to summon that sort of rearguard action a little while ago , in very similar circumstances.

Of course this Australian team , for all its batting shortcomings , isn't playing an all rounder at four and two wicketkeepers ...but I am still not sure of anyone other than Smith , Renshaw and possibly Handscomb - though India seem to have his number - batting for time. I know Maxwell did on Friday but I'm doubtful of lightning striking twice...

Aussie commentators wanting Cummins to bowl for the sake of a potential Michelle ???
What about having him able to walk - and hopefully bowl again - next week ?

I was going to post - how likely do we think it is Cummins is gonna play next week? Surely would be a massive risk for the Australians to go with him as part of a 4 man attack after all this bowling

I'm not sure Cummins has ever played two four or five day matches in a row

If they draw - or even if they lose , I guess - Australia will want Cummins as a serious attacking weapon for the fourth match : but I agree it might be an unjustifiable risk given his injury record. They certainly wouldn't have wanted him putting out this workload in this match !

Think there was an assumption this would be another dodgy pitch and the team was picked with that in mind. Shows that touring teams aren't good at judging Indian pitches...just ask England

The first thing to remember is to take no notice of what the groundsman says...

Meanwhile Bangladesh have their first serious away win in the bag in Columbo

Actually been impressed as to how Australia with only 4 bowlers stuck at it. Hope one of them isn't asked to do nightwatchman duty!

In a similar way to Lyon, O'Keefe doesn't seem in the very top bracket of spinners but he sure stuck at it and full credit to him for that. Horrific for Australia to think where they would have been and ended up if, say, he had sent down his first 9 overs for about 40 or 50.

150 lead means Australia will need to bat until nearly tea tomorrow just to get level...and then eat up a fair proportion of the last session to be safe.
Really don't need to lose anyone tonight...

alfie wrote:150 lead means Australia will need to bat until nearly tea tomorrow just to get level...and then eat up a fair proportion of the last session to be safe.
Really don't need to lose anyone tonight...

Spot on. Especially important Australia get through these 8 overs tonight.

Of course even that won't get them out of the wood - remember what happened to England after the Cook/Jennings stand was eventually broken....

Warner gone ...

Hardly a surprise really. I was just going to post that if he did survive tonight he should play his natural game tomorrow in hopes of at least keeping the scoring rate going. But now it will be down to Renshaw , Smith and Marsh to bat looonngg...

Ha ...as if poor Lyon hasn't done enough work today he's drawn the short straw to be night watchman

Night watchman ploy didn't work...two for Jadeja

Oh actually it did , in that Smith hasn't had to come in - they're out of time. Still two down doesn't fill one with confidence.

Wonder if Steve Waugh would have approved ?

every overin the end loked like  producing a wicket...inpsite of Ashwin still not being at 100% rhythm ( he needs a bit of a bowl to find rhythm) 

.think of the 4th inning on D4 of last test...how Aus batted.......and tomm will be D5.....the pitch will be almost as bad as it was on D4 last game when they batted less than 40 overs.....and after the top two or 3 wickets fell...scoring froze completely.....last 7 went down for 10 runs..

Warner gone means run scoring will come to  a crawl......they will resist a bit while Renshaw, Smith and Hadscombe last......and after that the end will come fast.
Innings defeat before tea-time is a 70% probability.

If I were Aus I would gamble and send Maxwell first up tomm as the next batsman..with a license to play "naturally"....

if they score runs fast ( in the context of the game at 3.5RPO)...then they push India back and bring draw into the equation...else they will choke and fall to half dozen men around the bat.

Yes it's looking grim for the visitors after India had a just about perfect day - much credit to them

I wouldn't totally give it away yet as I think Smith and Renshaw in particular have the capacity to bat for sessions ; but agree the odds have swung massively towards an Indian win. Early wickets tomorrow and it might be over very quickly...otherwise it is more likely to be a slow and painful death.

No rain forecast , I suppose

alfie wrote:Meanwhile Bangladesh have their first serious away win in the bag in Columbo

Historic

2 test wins this season and competed well against Ind and NZ