Australian Open - Day Ten

As no-one has reacted to CC's suggestion to open new AO threads, here's one for Day Ten:

Pliskova vs. Lucic-Baroni - as this seems to be the tournament of the career comebacks, I'll go for LUCIC-BARONI in three

Konta vs. Serena W. - SERENA in two: she won't want to miss out on Sister Act #28

Goffin vs. Dimitrov - GOFFIN in four

Nadal vs. Raonic - RAONIC in four

So predicting a Raonic-Goffin semi and this time Goffin won't let Milos escape like he did at Wimbledon last year!

Pliskova in 2. Lucic-Baroni has had a kind draw.

Konta in 2.

Dimitrov in 4.

Nadal in 4.

My predictions are the complete opposite of yours.

Konta vs Williams could be some match. Konta has been in absolutely red hot form of late, and is playing superbly, but Williams is quite possibly the greatest tennis player of all time, albeit has seemed on the slide recently. Hope Konta brings her A game, and give her a decent chance.

Think Nadal willing licking his lips at the prospect of facing a SHBH in the semis and final should get that far and therefore will give it everything to get passed Raonic. I'd assume Nadal would just run Raonic off the court.

Pliskova in 2

Serena in 3 - Konta looks unbeatable at the moment but I suspect Serena will suddenly find her very best form and edge through.

Dimitrov in 4 - he's got more weapons than Goffin and moves better.

Nadal in 3 - Raonic has apparently been a bit under the weather and is relying on Rafa being out of sorts anyway.

Bookmakers only have Nadal as a slight favourite against Raonic which I find surprising.

If Rafa comes through tomorrow I make him a big favourite for the title.

Rafa already the new title favourite, in my book.

Don't see Raonic stopping him. Stan might - but Rafa still has the edge, I say.

Well, if we're still talking about favourites

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens/winner?selectionName=roger-federer

It's Federer.

Still the clear bookies favourite after the quarter finals (in contradiction of what I predicted yesterday!)

I have to disagree with the bookies here, although if Federer fans are piling on with some emotional bets, they may just be hedging to limit their losses.

I think Stan, still available at 3-1, is better value.

Rafa isn't the favourite because he has an extra match to play but if he beats Raonic he could be the favourite, and in a final against Federer he certainly would be.

I took 10/1 (with Ladbroke's) on Rafa a few days ago - ie after Djoko had gone, but before Murray's exit .

Thought it was generous, and I remain very hopeful.

Henman Bill wrote:Well, if we're still talking about favourites

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens/winner?selectionName=roger-federer

It's Federer.

Still the clear bookies favourite after the quarter finals (in contradiction of what I predicted yesterday!)

I have to disagree with the bookies here, although if Federer fans are piling on with some emotional bets, they may just be hedging to limit their losses.

I think Stan, still available at 3-1, is better value.

Rafa isn't the favourite because he has an extra match to play but if he beats Raonic he could be the favourite, and in a final against Federer he certainly would be.

Fed beat Stan 64 63 61 last time they met at a hard court slam. Stan has never beaten him off clay. Fed has to be a major favourite in that match. I think Stan will make it closer this time but I'd be extremely surprised if Fed doesn't win in 4 sets or less. I can't really see how Stan will make an impact on his serve.

Williams beat Konta easily I see. Very impressive. With Lucic-Baroni also winning, Vandeweghe (at 25) is a full 9 years younger than any of the other Sfists.

We could easily have Williams v Williams and Fed v Nadal as the two finals. How very mid noughties!

Henman Bill wrote:Well, if we're still talking about favourites

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens/winner?selectionName=roger-federer

It's Federer.

Still the clear bookies favourite after the quarter finals (in contradiction of what I predicted yesterday!)

I have to disagree with the bookies here, although if Federer fans are piling on with some emotional bets, they may just be hedging to limit their losses.

I think Stan, still available at 3-1, is better value.

Rafa isn't the favourite because he has an extra match to play but if he beats Raonic he could be the favourite, and in a final against Federer he certainly would be.

Fed was already in the semi finals at this point. I expect once Rafa beats Raonic he will go favourite.

Especially considering he has the "easy" semi-final.

I'm yet to see anything to convince me this version of Rafa can live with this version of Fed. Fed's serve and backhand look so much stronger now than when Rafa beat him here in 09. Even if Rafa wins, I'd make Roger heavy favourite for the title from here onwards.

I think Rafa v Fed comes down to match up and mental demons. I can't see Fed ever beating Rafa in a big match again.

Choke from Raonic there. That's Rafa in the semi-final.

Born Slippy wrote:I'm yet to see anything to convince me this version of Rafa can live with this version of Fed. Fed's serve and backhand look so much stronger now than when Rafa beat him here in 09. Even if Rafa wins, I'd make Roger heavy favourite for the title from here onwards.

You truly mean every word of this, Born Slippy ...... ??

- that Rafa would not live with Fed in their respective forms ...?
- that Fed is heavy favourite .....??

I just don't see it that way - certainly nowhere near as clear-cut as you put it.

But each to his own of course. If we got our predictions right every time, sport would lose a huge chunk of its fascination & entertainment factor.

I'll be honest, I've only seen Rafa against Zverev. He played ok but nothing special. Has he been much better in the other matches?

I stand by what I say about Fed though. His game now is better equipped to deal with Rafa than earlier in his career. He's tactically far stronger and I don't think there are the same weaknesses for Rafa to expose. You must remember all those frustrating matches in the mid-00s when Fed would just sit back and engage in baseline rallies with Rafa, seemingly in the stubborn belief he would win? He won't make that mistake now.

Born Slippy wrote:I'll be honest, I've only seen Rafa against Zverev. He played ok but nothing special. Has he been much better in the other matches?

I stand by what I say about Fed though. His game now is better equipped to deal with Rafa than earlier in his career. He's tactically far stronger and I don't think there are the same weaknesses for Rafa to expose. You must remember all those frustrating matches in the mid-00s when Fed would just sit back and engage in baseline rallies with Rafa, seemingly in the stubborn belief he would win? He won't make that mistake now.

If you were/are watching the match v Raonic you would be choking on your words

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Konta vs Williams could be some match. Konta has been in absolutely red hot form of late, and is playing superbly, but Williams is quite possibly the greatest tennis player of all time, albeit has seemed on the slide recently. Hope Konta brings her A game, and give her a decent chance.

Konta played well, but it was Serena who brought her A game, and when she does that, the American is unbeatable....

Three mid-30s in the semis...the old-timers still have it!

Born Slippy wrote:Pliskova in 2

Serena in 3 - Konta looks unbeatable at the moment but I suspect Serena will suddenly find her very best form and edge through.

And Serena did indeed...the surprise was that Pliskova went out.

Can Venus overcome the power of young Coco to make it a Sister Act in the final?

So Rafa doubters where are you now???

Congratulations Rafa you are back

Haddie-nuff wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:I'll be honest, I've only seen Rafa against Zverev. He played ok but nothing special. Has he been much better in the other matches?

I stand by what I say about Fed though. His game now is better equipped to deal with Rafa than earlier in his career. He's tactically far stronger and I don't think there are the same weaknesses for Rafa to expose. You must remember all those frustrating matches in the mid-00s when Fed would just sit back and engage in baseline rallies with Rafa, seemingly in the stubborn belief he would win? He won't make that mistake now.

If you were/are watching the  match v Raonic you would be choking on your words

Certainly a very strong win. First grand slam SF since Oz 14 I think? Fantastic for him. Not sure why I'd be choking though if I was watching. I'm guessing he played well today then?

Good to see Nadal in a Slam SF. 3 x 30+ players in 2017 SFs.

laverfan wrote:Good to see Nadal in a Slam SF. 3 x 30+ players in 2017 SFs.  

6 including the ladies - 3 over 35!

Suggestion that Raonic was injured a bit towards the end but still a terrific win by Rafa. No reason to think Rafa can't win it and he certainly has the easier semi. However, Dimi appears to be playing well and could prove more of a handful for Rafa than Raonic did.
With the top two out, this was a great opportunity for the big Canadian. He should, clearly, have got the second set.
Not easy to call the other semi. Rog so rarely loses night matches. But everyone knows just how devastating Stan the Man can be if on top form.
As for the women, an all-Williams final is very much on the cards.

For me, if they both make it to the finals, I'd make Federer the favourite. He's looked fantastic all tournament - really devastating at times. Theoretically, he should have lost so much at his age, but he's striking the ball as well as I can remember and the feline agility looks razor sharp.
Nadal is miles from his best career form. His forehand is not nearly as devastating as it used to be. He's noticeably not as quick and explosive around the court.

Purely going by the form they've displayed, Federer would only lose to Nadal if his demons in this match-up gets in his head.

I was watching a bit of Zverev-Rafa and Rafa did not do a lot. If Zverev had gone for a few more shots and made them, it could have been a different story. It looked like Rafa played quite average, and passive, and waited for the errors, and got them. I think 10/1 on Rafa earlier in the tournament was quite reasonable.

However now, with the easier semi final and a SHBH finalist, Rafa has to be the favourite for me at the moment. Bookies now agree.

Dimitrov doesn't have the ability to blast Rafa off the court. Doesn't have the power and weapons to hurt.

Historically, Roger has lot a fair few night matches at the Australian Open. The night matches the court seems to play slower and always at the AO the court looks fast early in the tournament and by the end it's slower, perhaps because the semi and final are generally night matches.

Looking at his career statistics page, I see Roger's record at the Austalian Open semi final stage is won 5 lost 7, by far worse that his semi record at other slams. I should think a lot of those were night matches.

The other thing it's time to bring up (and sorry if this has been mentioned already this tournament, but I've been an intermittent visitor) is that a Rafa title win I believe would make him the first man in the open era to win each slam twice in his career. This would be quite a big achievement in my book.

Federer and Djokovic still need 1 more French to achieve this.

Laver did achieve it, but only using amateur, second tier slams pre open era.

I hope that's all right. Someone please correct me if I'd forgotten anything as don't have time to double check the facts, but just from memory I think that's right.

I see Guest 82 and Prostaff split 2-2 the duel of opposite predictions. Guest 82 seems to be the men's tennis expert and Prostaff the women's expert. At least for today.

Interesting all the 30+ players on both men's and women's. Is it 6 out of 8 players over 30? And about four of them well over 30. Again, a bit busy now, don't have time to check and post the actual numbers but seomthing like that.

The Oz Open SF are always at night I think. Off the top of my head, the 7 defeats are Safin, Novak x3, Rafa x2 and Murray. I wouldn't read too much into those results being at night - it's a pretty good collection of players!

Yes, I seem to have been way out with my comment about Fed rarely losing at night ! HB makes a good point about no one winning every slam at least twice in the Open Era. Of course, Rafa has actually been stuck on one win at the AO for some years, while so dominating the FO that hardly anyone else has got a look in.
With Stan, Rafa and Rog over 30 already and Murray and Djoko turning 30 before the French, it's highly likely that ALL the Slams this year will be won by 30-somethings.

I'm split between the all Swiss semi final TBH. Stan is on a 12 match unbeaten streak from New York to Melbourne. Even looking back to 2014, 2017 Stan is fitter and playing more sensibly. Roger has looked great thus far but Stan is way better than Berdych. Roger has to serve and move Stan around. If Roger drops short Stan will muller him. At this stage Stan is the known quantity and Roger is the unknown.

As for Nadal and Grigor. Nadal will see it as a turn up to facing either Swiss. Nadal makes Roger think too much hence Nadal is always the favourite when they play. But if it's Stan vs Nadal I'd back Stan to take Nadal apart.

I don't watch lots of womens tennis, so I will take the plaudit of mens tennis expert.

I wonder how highly we should value the double career slam, if Rafa achieves it now.

Dimitrov has a chance of beating Nadal, he's playing well and unbeaten this season. I still heavily favour Rafa, but you never know.

If Fed beats Stan he loses to Rafa. If Stan wins then we have a competitive final. But, I really want Fed to get 18.

But if it's Stan vs Nadal I'd back Stan to take Nadal apart.

we can least count on one poster to be predictable
:

Haddie-nuff wrote:
But if it's Stan vs Nadal I'd back Stan to take Nadal apart.

 we can least count on one poster to be predictable
:

Predicable? Stan took Nadal out in 2014 and Stan is better now whereas Nadal is worst now

Yes I saw that this morning how remiss of me

Jermaine2015 wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:
But if it's Stan vs Nadal I'd back Stan to take Nadal apart.

 we can least count on one poster to be predictable
:

Predicable? Stan took Nadal out in 2014 and Stan is better now whereas Nadal is worst now

Rafa was clearly injured in 2014 though, so I wouldn't read that much into that match. Since then Rafa has destroyed Stan three times and Stan has edged out Rafa twice. I'm also unconvinced Stan is better now than he was in 2014. I can see Stan winning that final but there's no way he will "take Nadal apart".

Born Slippy wrote:

Jermaine2015 wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:
But if it's Stan vs Nadal I'd back Stan to take Nadal apart.

 we can least count on one poster to be predictable
:

Predicable? Stan took Nadal out in 2014 and Stan is better now whereas Nadal is worst now

Rafa was clearly injured in 2014 though, so I wouldn't read that much into that match. Since then Rafa has destroyed Stan three times and Stan has edged out Rafa twice. I'm also unconvinced Stan is better now than
he was in 2014. I can see Stan winning that final but there's no way he will "take Nadal apart".

There was nothing wrong with Nadal in the first set. Stan smashed him off the court. But yeah downplay Stan's achievements...

Haddie-nuff wrote:Yes I saw that this morning how remiss of me

Yeah there's me forgetting that Raonic is actually a 3 slam winner and Stan is yet to win a major...

Henman Bill wrote:Laver did achieve it, but only using amateur, second tier slams pre open era.

I take exception to this. Bring in three slams on Grass, and we can start a new GOAT argument.

Nadal winning a grand slam playing bottlers every round would be just like him. Please Grigor or Stan get the job done cause we know Rog won't.

Sure signs Rafa is back here comes the needle .. sharpen the knives boys coz my Dad's bigger than your Dad nah nah

He won't get any respect beating a 35 year old just back from injury (who bends over against him in slams) that's for sure Haddie.

He would and never has had the respect from this forum whether he went out on court on a
pair of crutches.. but you know what JM your opinion means as much now as it always has done.. So why do you think that the 35 year old gained respect from beating an opponent with dodgy knees.. and who himself is back from injury... selective memory I guess

Rafa has always had my respect Haddie. Today was a big obstacle for him to overcome against an opponent that always performs well in Melbourne. I always felt Rafa had the game to break down Milos and that is how it panned out.

I'd be very surprised if he does not beat Dimitrov in the semi and if he faces Roger in the final then the title is his. If he faces Stan it is more marginal as Stan's game matches up better to him. Whatever happens now though it has been a great step forward for Rafa.

Yes CC I apologise I know you have.
His match against Raonic was the best I have seen him play for 2 yrs.. he was incredible and before anyone says Milos was injured I saw no sign of it.. other than he went of court .. I know he has a cold but he played the best match Ive seen him play.. he was at last watchable . Rafa, if he plays like he did.. particularly in the 3rd set there is going to be some egg on a few faces

Haddie-nuff wrote:he was at last watchable .

Poor old Milos. He would and never has had the respect from this forum

See you still have to resort to the lowest form of wit JHM..somethings never change on dear old 606

Rafa, in this form, goes favourite for the French Open and so from nowhere in around four months time he could be one short of Fed's slam total.

WOW CC only a World NO 1 fan would dare to stick his neck out that far lol

Where have you been H-N? I know you've been a tennis fan for many a year. I thought you'd have still been following & posting, even without Rafa being around much.