PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

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OK, We haven't done this for a couple of years, going through the field of 94 golfers in completely arbitrary and biased fashion until we find a winner we can be happy with. Inspired by Andy North.

No consideration is being made for the conditions which may be influenced by the weather forecast. Storms on Monday closed the course, should be pleasant today, but more storms expected Wednesday. Perhaps the SubAir will presumably cope unless it blows a gasket through overuse, but it sounds as if fairways will still be soft. Then cool and quite windy for Rounds 1 and 2, fine and calmer for the weekend, greens drying out and running at 20 on the Stimpmeter.

1).No amateur has won The Masters and that won't change this week. Five golfers eliminated.

2).And Augusta first-timers haven't won since Fuzzy almost 40 years ago. That gets rid of 14 more, but this is an impressive crop of debutants including Fleetwood, Hadwin, Noren, Pieters & Rahm. Sorry guys, maybe next year.

3).Old Masters and Past Masters: This year in particular, the over-forties crowd who have flourished in the past, have been put into their place by the Young Guns. No-one over 40 has won the Green Jacket since Fatty O'Meara in 1998 and I don't see that trend changing, although Mickelson would undoubtedly bet against that trend. Green Zimmer frames for Phil, Lee, Henrik and 20 others, including 38-y-o Trevor Immelman who won't be in contention. Will he?

For those scoring at home, that's 42 down, 52 to go.

4).We haven't seen an Asian-born Major winner and who's to say Matsuyama won't be the first? Just not this week, Hideki, and you can commiserate with Ben An, James Hahn, Ikeda, Kevin Na (got to get rid of him somehow) and Tanihara. That's another six deported, 46 to go.

5).Continental Europe hasn't produced a winner since Jose Maria 18 years ago and that won't change this year, much as I think Rafa will have a good week. That's five more gone, plus I'll throw in Shane Lowry if my back can take it. 40 remain.

6).Lightning won't strike twice, willett? Very thin ice here as I really like Justin Rose to have a fine week. Good form all year and this may be his focus, much as Rio was last year. But the rest of the British contingent (including Rory) will drown their sorrows with the Patrons, and that's another 9 down the drain. 31 still playing.

7).I like winners and recent winners even more. That sees the field narrow considerably if I eliminate all those who haven't won this year or last - 11 more leave the premises, and then there were 20 (hate to see Kisner go).

8).Some high-flyers from last year have been under the radar this. Augusta National is no place to rediscover your game so adios to Jason Day, Spieth (but he'll surely be around the lead, won't he?), Scott, Reed, Bubba, 3 x Saffers, Walker, Koepka, Berger, Moore. That's a dozen to the exit, and an elite eight remain.

9).Most Masters winners are terrific putters, and Justin Thomas (48th in putting), Brendan Steele (102nd) and Johnny Vegas (164th) won't get it done.

10).Which leaves DJ, Fowler, Henley, Leishman and Sneds.
Sneds ticks most of the boxes, not least being someone who embraces the "Augusta" thing. Not in top form though.
Fowler still has that double-bogey in his DNA.
So this leaves us with a top 3 of Russell Henley, Marc Leishman and Dustin Johnson. All recent winners of course, but nothing wrong with a hot golfer. I can't see past DJ; he may be unsettled by the wind early in the tournament but soft fairways won't hurt him at all.  
Best of the rest: Berger, Oosthuizen, Rose, Spieth.

Looks like Pieters and the back nine are off to a rocky start.

Unfortunately for Willett he will have to stick around to pass on the green jacket. What's there to do with a weekend in augusta?

Yup, Predictable though.

ESPN reckons DJ will go, but right now it seems he's alternating between the range and the physio.

Cut is Top 50 plus all those within 10 strokes of the lead. All within 10 so far as the early starters dawdle in.

Mac,
Hilton Head and the other "Low Country" islands will be gorgeous this weekend. Perhaps he'll leave Friday evening, get back around time for a few snorts before Billy Payne hands him a jacket to bestow on Andy Sullivan.

Sounding increasingly as if DJ won't make it - or at least have anything like his normal rotation of swing. We'll soon know.

Two Englishmen, a Belgique and Kev Chap tied for the lead - order restored.

About 5 minutes or so before reserves step in, DJ screws more than just PGA Tour Wags, or gets it round by hook or by crook...

He's got his pt with him for treatment during the round if necessary!

w/d

McLaren wrote:Unfortunately for Willett he will have to stick around to pass on the green jacket. What's there to do with a weekend in augusta?

He could hang about and smoke a couple of J's with DJ, as he's out now too.

Real shame DJ is out, takes a bit of gloss off as he is clearly the form horse, not that whoever pulls on the jacket on Sunday will care too much.

It's a shame there was 1st Reserve ready to take his place.

Good Grief, isn't Paul McGinley looking old?

What a shame for DJ and a shame for the tournament!

SR
There aren't any reserves for the Masters, so there was no one ready to take his place....

Shotrock wrote:Anyone hear if DJ is playing?

Isn't that normally what DJ's do?

I'll get my coat..

How bad can it be, he is up and walking about. I would have tried to play the front 9 to see how it went.

sirbenson wrote:SR
There aren't any reserves for the Masters, so there was no one ready to take his place....

Yes, I know. I meant it's a shame there wasn't.

sirbenson wrote:What a shame for DJ and a shame for the tournament!

Indeed, no one wants to see him out.

At least Spieth got his Masters collapse out the way early this year.

Rounds taking about 5 hours, 40 minutes right now.
Henley & Summerhays were first out and very fortunate, playing as a twosome, beat the wind and didn't have to deal with the funereal pace.

Rev. Spieth carded a 9??? What the hell happened?

And anyone who replies "he missed a putt for an 8" will be in line for a slap!

3rd spun back into the drink, batted his 5th over the green, chipped way long and 3-putted, including missing his putt for an 8.

Davie wrote:Rev. Spieth carded a 9??? What the hell happened?

And anyone who replies "he missed a putt for an 8" will be in line for a slap!

Looks like he had four putts on the green and went in the water.

Davie, if you get the Masters App, they have a very detailed shot by shot picture for each hole for each player. very good.

I'm never wrong wrote:

Davie wrote:Rev. Spieth carded a 9??? What the hell happened?

And anyone who replies "he missed a putt for an 8" will be in line for a slap!

Looks like he had four putts on the green and went in the water.

Davie, if you get the Masters App, they have a very detailed shot by shot picture for each hole for each player. very good.

Yes, the Track feature on the app is very good.

McGirt looks like Dufner of 5 years ago.

Butch Harmon, just because he is a good coach does not mran he is a good commentator.

He's not got a face for TV either, looks like a corpse that's been in the water too long.

Willett fighting back very well. Surprised to see that after his start. Anything around level par going to be great today.

McGirt, Hoffman, Henley ... now order being restored Kwin!

This should be a very entertaining tournament. And just wait until Rory gets it going.

The thing is harmon jnr is pretty good,much better than senior. Players just need to not throw it away today. If the wind stays up tomorrow it could be bunched, hope the weather is better over the weekend though.

beninho wrote:Butch Harmon, just because he is a good coach does not mran he is a good commentator.

Butch's book "The Pro" is worth a read, it's about the last club pro to have won the Masters back in 1948. His old man.

When did Gerald Watson start head bounding? It's like a prize winning marrow sticking out the top of his visor.

Shotrock wrote:McGirt, Hoffman, Henley ... now order being restored Kwin!  

This should be a very entertaining tournament. And just wait until Rory gets it going.

I could see that coming back to bite me! Fortunately I think I have Henley & Duf in Grumpy's game.

kwinigolfer wrote:

Shotrock wrote:McGirt, Hoffman, Henley ... now order being restored Kwin!  

This should be a very entertaining tournament. And just wait until Rory gets it going.

I could see that coming back to bite me! Fortunately I think I have Henley & Duf in Grumpy's game.

Early days yet lads, early days.

Hopefully McGirt and Dufner will push off.

How the hell did Willett turn it around? What a great effort given how bad he must of felt early in the round and the year he has had since his win.

A surprise to everyone including Willett I would think Mac. First time I've been impressed with his play since last year.

Bjorn is brutal

He is, I can't see him being an inspirational Captain.

Having known a load of Danes though, he's typically dry and humourless.

Hoffman-McGirt-Lowry

Wonder if any of them were in the gym this morning?

Charley Hoffman's putting a slightly different complexion on the leaderboard. Perhaps Shane can follow him?

Ryder Cup 0-fers from last year doing rather well.

GPB wrote:Hoffman-McGirt-Lowry

Wonder if any of them were in the gym this morning?

Only if you have to pass though the gym to get to the dining room...

If hoffman finishes at -6 what would his Z score be?

Edit: or better

4 in a row for lwi, could be 4 in a row for Harley Choffman. He's going to have a big big say on the cut-line - within 10 shots of the lead.

If hoffman finishes at -6 what would his Z score be?

Looking at something much better than the 3.00 hurdle.  somewhere around 3.4

C'mon Lee...

Hoffman in with a 65.
Average score is 75.2 with a few groups still to finish. Imagine that's dropping.

kwinigolfer wrote:

Shotrock wrote:McGirt, Hoffman, Henley ... now order being restored Kwin!  

This should be a very entertaining tournament. And just wait until Rory gets it going.

I could see that coming back to bite me! Fortunately I think I have Henley & Duf in Grumpy's game.

A rough count shows 8 picks shooting 70/71. It'll take something special to move the Top 5 line so a number of points will be dished out.

Avg Score was 74.98 so Hoffman was almost 10 shots better than field avg.

Z-score was 3.53.

For some perspective, Greg Norman's first round 63 at the 1996 Masters was 10.29 strokes better than field average, with a 2.90 z-score.

Here comes Rory!

Wonderful round by Hoffman. Hope he keeps it up.

Also, nice round by Westwood.

Really impressed with Lowry & Mcilroy yesterday, that double on 18 not the end of the world for Fitzy either. That round would have spiralled out of control on a younger Mcilroy, great to see him grind out a score. Stenson's poor form (by his standards) continues unfortunately.

But most impressed with Charlie Hoffman. Very calm and controlled performance.