Reaction of the All Blacks

The age old question of how a team reacts to defeat is looming for nz this week. For great teams throughout all of sport defeats do come but normally so does an answer of sorts to questions about commitment, performance etc etc.

We saw how the agressive physicality was upped by nz following defeat in Chicago; we saw the lions and Vunipola up it and cross the line at times last week though ironically after sbw had seen red.

Will nz use this positively and use the hopefully better weather to cut loose or front up into a battle of the forwards first....and then hand us our backsides?!

I still feel there are a few unanswered questions on their loss of leadership in the team and squad loosing so many great players over a few months to retirement and now injury and suspension. A lot hangs on read for me and how he leads the team over the 80 min. This is going to come more down to approach and mentality than skill for once.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=11885901

New Zealand were fortunate to have Jaco Peyper referee the Dublin test. I think Its fairly clear now that Peyper is quite lenient on agressive/borderline foul play whereas someone like Garces possibly would have given the ABs a red card in Dublin and not let they away with so much foul play.

I think the referee makes a huge difference and there is a chance that Poite will favour the Lions as the Lions are more used to Poite than the ABs.

I bet their reaction wont be to spend two days arguing over whether Best is good at lineout throws or not.

Gooseberry wrote:I bet their reaction wont be to spend two days arguing over whether Best is good at lineout throws or not.

Im sure they are just happy he isnt playing as he dominated the breakdown and lineout in two test against them last year.

Im sure the ABs also arent frolicking in Queenstown 1,611 KM away from Eden park.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:New Zealand were fortunate to have Jaco Peyper referee the Dublin test. I think Its fairly clear now that Peyper is quite lenient on agressive/borderline foul play whereas someone like Garces possibly would have given the ABs a red card in Dublin and not let they away with so much foul play.

I think the referee makes a huge difference and there is a chance that Poite will favour the Lions as the Lions are more used to Poite than the ABs.

Peyper let both sides away with a fair bit in Dublin 'tis true.

I'll admit the fact that we only concede a red card every 185 tests on average is impressive. Granted we're only 3rd best on that front - Ireland & Scotland average 1 every 225 & 224 respectively (all 3 nations have had 3 sendings off ever)


Uruguay get 1 every 20 matches on average!

Ave Matches played per Red Card:
Ireland 225
Scotland 224
NZ 185
Australia 152
England 142
Japan 113
Wales 100
Argentina 70
France 67
SA 58
Italy 44
Samoa 28
Fiji 25
Tonga 25

GunsGermsV2 wrote:Im sure the ABs also arent frolicking in Queenstown 1,611 KM away from Eden park.

I was wondering who would be the first to bring up Queenstown.

Still amused that Ireland's visit there in 2011, to the exact same bars as England (though not the bungee jumping), went completely under the radar.

In all fairness there is no harm in going to Queenstown as long as they dont act like English people on holidays.

Cool we doing serotype s for a change?

No 7&1/2 wrote:Cool we doing serotype s for a change?

Salmonella (or autocorrect?)



PS - Having seen Irish, Scots and Welsh on holiday, the stereotype would fit B&I as well as English

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:

GunsGermsV2 wrote:New Zealand were fortunate to have Jaco Peyper referee the Dublin test. I think Its fairly clear now that Peyper is quite lenient on agressive/borderline foul play whereas someone like Garces possibly would have given the ABs a red card in Dublin and not let they away with so much foul play.

I think the referee makes a huge difference and there is a chance that Poite will favour the Lions as the Lions are more used to Poite than the ABs.

Peyper let both sides away with a fair bit in Dublin 'tis true.

I'll admit the fact that we only concede a red card every 185 tests on average is impressive. Granted we're only 3rd best on that front - Ireland & Scotland average 1 every 225 & 224 respectively (all 3 nations have had 3 sendings off ever)


Uruguay get 1 every 20 matches on average!

Ave Matches played per Red Card:
Ireland 225
Scotland 224
NZ 185
Australia 152
England 142
Japan 113
Wales 100
Argentina 70
France 67
SA 58
Italy 44
Samoa 28
Fiji 25
Tonga 25

You dirty Kiwis

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:...I'll admit the fact that we only concede a red card every 185 tests on average is impressive. Granted we're only 3rd best on that front - Ireland & Scotland average 1 every 225 & 224 respectively (all 3 nations have had 3 sendings off ever)


Uruguay get 1 every 20 matches on average!

Ave Matches played per Red Card:
Ireland 225
Scotland 224
NZ 185
Australia 152
England 142
Japan 113
Wales 100
Argentina 70
France 67
SA 58
Italy 44
Samoa 28
Fiji 25
Tonga 25

I'd like to see citing red cards included. That would add at least Andrew Hore to the All Black total (can't remember the status of Dan Carter's citing and ban in 2009). That's not to pick on NZ, as other teams would see their numbers increase. Launchbury was cited and banned after the NZ match, so he might be on the list for England.

If you add all the red cards Irish fans think NZ should have it puts them between Fiji and Samoa.

Rugby Fan wrote:

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:...I'll admit the fact that we only concede a red card every 185 tests on average is impressive. Granted we're only 3rd best on that front - Ireland & Scotland average 1 every 225 & 224 respectively (all 3 nations have had 3 sendings off ever)


Uruguay get 1 every 20 matches on average!

Ave Matches played per Red Card:
Ireland 225
Scotland 224
NZ 185
Australia 152
England 142
Japan 113
Wales 100
Argentina 70
France 67
SA 58
Italy 44
Samoa 28
Fiji 25
Tonga 25

I'd like to see citing red cards included. That would add at least Andrew Hore to the All Black total (can't remember the status of Dan Carter's citing and ban in 2009). That's not to pick on NZ, as other teams would see their numbers increase. Launchbury was cited and banned after the NZ match, so he might be on the list for England.

ESPN doesn't hold those

We'd have Fekitoa added too, probably a handful of others

The Lions have been partying since Saturday, this game is done already. AB by 35+

TightHEAD wrote:The Lions have been partying since Saturday, this game is done already. AB by 35+

Really? Late night boozing?

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:

Rugby Fan wrote:

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:...I'll admit the fact that we only concede a red card every 185 tests on average is impressive. Granted we're only 3rd best on that front - Ireland & Scotland average 1 every 225 & 224 respectively (all 3 nations have had 3 sendings off ever)


Uruguay get 1 every 20 matches on average!

Ave Matches played per Red Card:
Ireland 225
Scotland 224
NZ 185
Australia 152
England 142
Japan 113
Wales 100
Argentina 70
France 67
SA 58
Italy 44
Samoa 28
Fiji 25
Tonga 25

I'd like to see citing red cards included. That would add at least Andrew Hore to the All Black total (can't remember the status of Dan Carter's citing and ban in 2009). That's not to pick on NZ, as other teams would see their numbers increase. Launchbury was cited and banned after the NZ match, so he might be on the list for England.

ESPN doesn't hold those

We'd have Fekitoa added too, probably a handful of others

Here's an updated look at ave matches played per YC (back to 1997 when they were introduced)

SA and Georgia are the only 2 nations to have received over 100 YCs since then, Italy on 95 look like being next to the "honour"

Team Matches Per YC
Georgia 1.4
Tonga 2.0
Fiji 2.0
Romania 2.3
Canada 2.3
Italy 2.3
Uruguay 2.3
United States of America 2.5
South Africa 2.5
Argentina 2.6
Samoa 2.7
Australia 3.0
Wales 3.3
New Zealand 3.3
Scotland 3.4
England 3.9
Japan 4.1
Ireland 5.1
France 5.7

GunsGermsV2 wrote:

TightHEAD wrote:The Lions have been partying since Saturday, this game is done already. AB by 35+

Really? Late night boozing?

Best and George were seen having a dwarf tossing competition


Still....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2656885/Playing-rugby-hangover-No-problem-Study-concludes-drinking-11-pints-night-game-does-little-impair-performance.html
I mean if the Daily Mail says its Ok .....

Still it can lead to embaressing incidents like this
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/blacks-been-filmed-belting-out-12258433

Ireland have a very disciplined side.

Remarkably Ireland's yellow card ratio for games reffed by Wayne Barnes is a card every 1.4 games while our opponents average less in the same games. I personally think world rugby should be investigating Barnes as the trends are very suspicious.

9 yellows and 1 red in 13 games.

Gooseberry wrote:

GunsGermsV2 wrote:

TightHEAD wrote:The Lions have been partying since Saturday, this game is done already. AB by 35+

Really? Late night boozing?

Best and George were seen having a dwarf tossing competition


Still....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2656885/Playing-rugby-hangover-No-problem-Study-concludes-drinking-11-pints-night-game-does-little-impair-performance.html
I mean if the Daily Mail says its Ok .....

Still it can lead to embaressing incidents like this
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2656885/Playing-rugby-hangover-No-problem-Study-concludes-drinking-11-pints-night-game-does-little-impair-performance.html

Were they as drunk as George Best at the time?

GunsGermsV2 wrote:Ireland have a very disciplined side.

Remarkably Ireland's yellow card ratio for games reffed by Wayne Barnes is a card every 1.4 games while our opponents average less in the same games. I personally think world rugby should be investigating Barnes as the trends are very suspicious.

9 yellows and 1 red in 13 games.

Jeepers. That's 1/3 of your reds and over 20% of your yellows ever. And he's umpired 6% of all your matches played since the YC was introduced

Barnes tends to be "hot" on teams like Ireland & NZ who are a bit sneaky at the breakdown. Peyper OTOH didn't spot any of Ireland's neck rolls in Dublin, or NZ's last week - maybe we should both ask for him more often

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:

GunsGermsV2 wrote:Ireland have a very disciplined side.

Remarkably Ireland's yellow card ratio for games reffed by Wayne Barnes is a card every 1.4 games while our opponents average less in the same games. I personally think world rugby should be investigating Barnes as the trends are very suspicious.

9 yellows and 1 red in 13 games.

Jeepers. That's 1/3 of your reds and over 20% of your yellows ever. And he's umpired 6% of all your matches played since the YC was introduced

Barnes tends to be "hot" on teams like Ireland & NZ who are a bit sneaky at the breakdown. Peyper OTOH didn't spot any of Ireland's neck rolls in Dublin, or NZ's last week - maybe we should both ask for him more often

How many of those came against Wales? 
To be fair teh statistic is slightly skewed as cards have become increasingly frequent over time, and hes reffed them a lot in recnet history. Even so its a thing isnt it. Just goes to show how soft other refs like are on Ireland, like that Alain Pierre chap was on France.

He just gives more cards in general. Gives more penalties and cards to Irelands opponents than Ireland but somehow that's bias.

Gooseberry wrote:

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:

GunsGermsV2 wrote:Ireland have a very disciplined side.

Remarkably Ireland's yellow card ratio for games reffed by Wayne Barnes is a card every 1.4 games while our opponents average less in the same games. I personally think world rugby should be investigating Barnes as the trends are very suspicious.

9 yellows and 1 red in 13 games.

Jeepers. That's 1/3 of your reds and over 20% of your yellows ever. And he's umpired 6% of all your matches played since the YC was introduced

Barnes tends to be "hot" on teams like Ireland & NZ who are a bit sneaky at the breakdown. Peyper OTOH didn't spot any of Ireland's neck rolls in Dublin, or NZ's last week - maybe we should both ask for him more often

How many of those came against Wales? 
To be fair teh statistic is slightly skewed as cards have become increasingly frequent over time, and hes reffed them a lot in recnet history. Even so its a thing isnt it. Just goes to show how soft other refs like are on Ireland, like that Alain Pierre chap was on France.

Well Ireland's average card count during Barnes' career in total is a card per every 4.36 games. The way I see it it is only more frequent than our overall average because of all the games Barnes has reffed.

Yes 6 of 13 Ireland games he has reffed have been v Wales which in itself is a disturbing trend particularly two of those games he stepped in as a late replacement for Steve Walsh. He also is from near the England Wales border and went to school in Wales. Very dodgy.

Gooseberry wrote:

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:

GunsGermsV2 wrote:Ireland have a very disciplined side.

Remarkably Ireland's yellow card ratio for games reffed by Wayne Barnes is a card every 1.4 games while our opponents average less in the same games. I personally think world rugby should be investigating Barnes as the trends are very suspicious.

9 yellows and 1 red in 13 games.

Jeepers. That's 1/3 of your reds and over 20% of your yellows ever. And he's umpired 6% of all your matches played since the YC was introduced

Barnes tends to be "hot" on teams like Ireland & NZ who are a bit sneaky at the breakdown. Peyper OTOH didn't spot any of Ireland's neck rolls in Dublin, or NZ's last week - maybe we should both ask for him more often

How many of those came against Wales? 
To be fair teh statistic is slightly skewed as cards have become increasingly frequent over time, and hes reffed them a lot in recnet history. Even so its a thing isnt it. Just goes to show how soft other refs like are on Ireland, like that Alain Pierre chap was on France.

My interweb is playing up, so apologies if this is a duplicate

ESPN doesn't seem to let you filter cards by ref, but:
Irish YC count by Opposition
v Italy 10 (weirdly high - you'd expect less YCs vs weaker oppo)
v Wales 7
v New Zealand 5
v France 4
v South Africa 4
v Australia 3
v Scotland 2
v Argentina 2
v Canada 1
v England 1
v Georgia 1
v Japan 1
v Romania 1
v Russia 1
v Tonga 1

Scottrf wrote:He just gives more cards in general. Gives more penalties and cards to Irelands opponents than Ireland but somehow that's bias.

He does but he is the only ref that gives on average significantly more cards to Ireland than to Ireland's opponents. The numbers all point to a bias.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:

Scottrf wrote:He just gives more cards in general. Gives more penalties and cards to Irelands opponents than Ireland but somehow that's bias.

He does but he is the only ref that gives on average significantly more cards to Ireland than to Ireland's opponents. The numbers all point to a bias.

Not true.

Significantly more than the average for Ireland and significantly less than the average for Ireland's opponents during the period of his career.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:Significantly more than the average for Ireland and significantly less than the average for Ireland's opponents during the period of his career.

Perhaps because he referees big games not games vs Samoa where you're unlikely to need to give away penalties. Perhaps because of the style of his refereeing and Ireland's typical infringements.

We've been through this before and you've never been able to prove bias.

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:

Gooseberry wrote:

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:

GunsGermsV2 wrote:Ireland have a very disciplined side.

Remarkably Ireland's yellow card ratio for games reffed by Wayne Barnes is a card every 1.4 games while our opponents average less in the same games. I personally think world rugby should be investigating Barnes as the trends are very suspicious.

9 yellows and 1 red in 13 games.

Jeepers. That's 1/3 of your reds and over 20% of your yellows ever. And he's umpired 6% of all your matches played since the YC was introduced

Barnes tends to be "hot" on teams like Ireland & NZ who are a bit sneaky at the breakdown. Peyper OTOH didn't spot any of Ireland's neck rolls in Dublin, or NZ's last week - maybe we should both ask for him more often

How many of those came against Wales? 
To be fair teh statistic is slightly skewed as cards have become increasingly frequent over time, and hes reffed them a lot in recnet history. Even so its a thing isnt it. Just goes to show how soft other refs like are on Ireland, like that Alain Pierre chap was on France.

My interweb is playing up, so apologies if this is a duplicate

ESPN doesn't seem to let you filter cards by ref, but:
Irish YC count by Opposition
v Italy 10 (weirdly high - you'd expect less YCs vs weaker oppo)
v Wales 7
v New Zealand 5
v France 4
v South Africa 4
v Australia 3
v Scotland 2
v Argentina 2
v Canada 1
v England 1
v Georgia 1
v Japan 1
v Romania 1
v Russia 1
v Tonga 1

Well Wayne Barnes gave Ireland 3 of those yellow cards in one game v Italy in the only game Ireland have lost to Italy in the 6N.

Yeah the thread was more about the psychology of loss and the loss of quite a bit of experience from.nz vs the fact that they're quite a good rugby side..less about guns crazy theories.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Yeah the thread was more about the psychology of loss and the loss of quite a bit of experience from.nz vs the fact that they're quite a good rugby side..less about guns crazy theories.

Sorry.

I saw a chance to go "Statto" & jumped at it

GunsGermsV2 wrote:

Gooseberry wrote:I bet their reaction wont be to spend two days arguing over whether Best is good at lineout throws or not.

Im sure they are just happy he isnt playing as he dominated the breakdown and lineout in two test against them last year.

Im sure the ABs also arent frolicking in Queenstown 1,611 KM away from Eden park.

Depends what you mean by happy I guess, they'd probably quite like the lottery that comes with Best's throwing.

You're right reffing from Poite should suit us more. Barnes aint reffing so got nothing to with anything here.

Gooseberry wrote:I bet their reaction wont be to spend two days arguing over whether Best is good at lineout throws or not.

I was away all weekend & flat out at work yesterday so wasn't on here. I'm assuming I didn't miss much then

The biggest reaction for me will be the response to the Lions attempts to knock certain players out of the game.

As our Breakdown show pointed out Sonny bills red was reckless without the intent, and just plain dumb, where Mako had a clear intent of missiling into Barrett on two occasions, but missed. But there's no doubt he was aiming to knock Barrett out, nowhere near the ball.

That may have been lost on the ref, but it won't have been on the ABs

SOB regardless of the judiciary clearly fired a shot at Naholo and flattened him.

ABs will take those two players/ incidents into account and will use them for motivation at Eden park.

One thing Barnes taught us is to take the ref out of the equation. No point moaning about them which many are doing here. Get the job done, by yourselves, on the scoreboard. Simple.

SOB didnt fire a shot at Naholo at all. I agree with you on Mako though. Dont agree with the targeting of Barrett at all.

Taylorman wrote:The biggest reaction for me will be the response to the Lions attempts to knock certain players out of the game.

As our Breakdown show pointed out Sonny bills red was reckless without the intent, and just plain dumb, where Mako had a clear intent of missiling into Barrett on two occasions, but missed. But there's no doubt he was aiming to knock Barrett out, nowhere near the ball.

That may have been lost on the ref, but it won't have been on the ABs

SOB regardless of the judiciary clearly fired a shot at Naholo and flattened him.

ABs will take those two players/ incidents into account and will use them for motivation at Eden park.

One thing Barnes taught us is to take the ref out of the equation. No point moaning about them which many are doing here. Get the job done, by yourselves, on the scoreboard. Simple.

I hope you're just trolling or you're as deluded as they come.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:SOB didnt fire a shot at Naholo at all. I agree with you on Mako though. Dont agree with the targeting of Barrett at all.

Doesn't really matter what you, or I,think, the ABs will definitely see it as clear intent to injure.

SOBs was definitely a swinging arm on the head. No point trying to convince me otherwise, so don't bother.

Taylorman wrote:The biggest reaction for me will be the response to the Lions attempts to knock certain players out of the game.

As our Breakdown show pointed out Sonny bills red was reckless without the intent, and just plain dumb, where Mako had a clear intent of missiling into Barrett on two occasions, but missed. But there's no doubt he was aiming to knock Barrett out, nowhere near the ball.

That may have been lost on the ref, but it won't have been on the ABs

SOB regardless of the judiciary clearly fired a shot at Naholo and flattened him.

ABs will take those two players/ incidents into account and will use them for motivation at Eden park.

One thing Barnes taught us is to take the ref out of the equation. No point moaning about them which many are doing here. Get the job done, by yourselves, on the scoreboard. Simple.

Taking Farrell and Sexton out at every given opportunity is perfectly fine and I like SBW but there was intent in what he did, recklessness alone doesn't get him into that position.

SOB didn't fire a Poopie at Naholo at all or shall I mention Cruden and Laumape both targeting Williams?

Hammersmith harrier wrote:

Taylorman wrote:The biggest reaction for me will be the response to the Lions attempts to knock certain players out of the game.

As our Breakdown show pointed out Sonny bills red was reckless without the intent, and just plain dumb, where Mako had a clear intent of missiling into Barrett on two occasions, but missed. But there's no doubt he was aiming to knock Barrett out, nowhere near the ball.

That may have been lost on the ref, but it won't have been on the ABs

SOB regardless of the judiciary clearly fired a shot at Naholo and flattened him.

ABs will take those two players/ incidents into account and will use them for motivation at Eden park.

One thing Barnes taught us is to take the ref out of the equation. No point moaning about them which many are doing here. Get the job done, by yourselves, on the scoreboard. Simple.

Taking Farrell and Sexton out at every given opportunity is perfectly fine and I like SBW but there was intent in what he did, recklessness alone doesn't get him into that position.

SOB didn't fire a Poopie at Naholo at all or shall I mention Cruden and Laumape both targeting Williams?

Missed the point. It'll be what the ABs take out of all this. A huge prop on Barrett, twice? Won't go down well Mako. Expect a reaction after that. SBW? Intent? Hardly. Compare Makos shot to SBWs in terms of intent to injure. No comparison.

How do you know SBW didnt intend to injure Watson? In any case intent doesn't really matter when you drive your shoulder into someones face on purpose.

Although I agree Mako was lucky not to get a red. It was really stupid. Hope he doesnt start.

You're right there is no comparison, SBWs was far far worse.

Taylorman wrote:

Missed the point. It'll be what the ABs take out of all this. A huge prop on Barrett, twice? Won't go down well Mako. Expect a reaction after that. SBW? Intent? Hardly. Compare Makos shot to SBWs in terms of intent to injure. No comparison.

You really think Mako's was worse? It's a clearout that happens all of the time. Well overblown IMO, yellow is fine but nothing more. Nowhere near the contact of SBWs. The other was just a clumsy attempt at a chargedown. Nothing in it.

SOB barely brushed him, going for the ball.

I was really passive from SOB, no surprise Naholo passed the HIA.

Maybe he just taking a nap because the ABs play such boring rugby?

I wouldn't be surprised if the ABs get another red card on Saturday. Their idea of a response seems to be to be more aggressive which seems to translate into indiscipline.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:I was really passive from SOB, no surprise Naholo passed the HIA.

Maybe he just taking a nap because the ABs play such boring rugby?

Apparently he's doubtful for this weekend - some follow up symptoms yesterday

(note, I thought it it was a yellow-card worthy hit not a red)

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:

GunsGermsV2 wrote:I was really passive from SOB, no surprise Naholo passed the HIA.

Maybe he just taking a nap because the ABs play such boring rugby?

Apparently he's doubtful for this weekend - some follow up symptoms yesterday

(note, I thought it it was a yellow-card worthy hit not a red)

What did you think Cane's punishment for his flying head collision on Henshaw that saw him stretchered off and missing for the subsequent Australia game should have been?

Id imagine if it was Garces reffing rather than Peyper Id imagine it would have been red or yellow. Looks worse to me than the SBW shoulder.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:

GunsGermsV2 wrote:I was really passive from SOB, no surprise Naholo passed the HIA.

Maybe he just taking a nap because the ABs play such boring rugby?

Apparently he's doubtful for this weekend - some follow up symptoms yesterday

(note, I thought it it was a yellow-card worthy hit not a red)

What did you think Cane's punishment for his flying head collision on Henshaw that saw him stretchered off and missing for the subsequent Australia game should have been?

Also yellow-worthy. Neither aimed for the head

And since the powers-that-be thought neither were ban-worthy I figure I'm in good company

The SOB incident looked quite passive, the Cane incident looked liked there was far greater impact involved. As such the Cane incident looked to me much more dangerous. Not sure if that is a consideration in a citing scenario.

I would much rather take a passive SOBs forearm to my head with no wind up than a Sam Cane head/shoulder combo at speed to my face.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:The SOB incident looked quite passive, the Cane incident looked liked there was far greater impact involved. As such the Cane incident looked to me much more dangerous. Not sure if that is a consideration in a citing scenario.

I would much rather take a passive SOBs forearm to my head with no wind up than a Sam Can head/shoulder combo at speed to my face.

You may have a point on the impact - I'm looking at the intent.


For what it's worth, SBW slowed and braced for impact for his (deserved) red on Saturday - which lead to the shoulder-to-head contact. If he'd carried on running in and wrapped he might have escaped a red. Given how low Watson's head was due to the initial tackle the impact on him may have been worse in that case (I doubt SBW's chest is much softer than his shoulder, & he'd have been moving faster)