PGA Tour: San Diego - He's Baaack!: Notes from the Ballwasher

1).Yup, following a season most notable for three runner-up finishes, one of them a very, very near miss, Justin Rose is back in PGA Tour action for the first time since his victory at the WGC-HSBC Champions in November.
And not just that win, but he also brings a string of TEN consecutive Top Ten finishes worldwide (plus last week's aberrational T21 in Abu Dhabi) in owgr-eligible tournaments to San Diego's Torrey Pines.
Without drilling too far down his career record, I'd imagine that's his longest sustained run of excellence, and to that lot he can also point to a T4 at last year's "Farmers Insurance Open".

2).Whether justified or not, I've always regarded Rose as something of a momentum golfer, as of course most are. But his "momentum" is usually dictated by the health of his body and his putting stroke. Tough to put stats together from tournaments in some of the diverse places he's plied his trade recently, but perhaps both components are now in excellent working order? Or as much as they can be following travel from Abu Dhabi.

3).No doubt like any other Pro worth his salt, Rose would love any Major that came his way, but it's his record at Augusta National that really stands out, his win at Merion notwithstanding.
Played: 12
Cuts made: 12
Top tens: 5
Last 3 years: T2, T10, 2 (play-off loss to Sergio)
Given that he worked (and travelled) pretty hard last autumn, one just hopes his schedule allows adequate recovery time before returning to this year's Masters.

4).At the risk of having missed someone obvious, this is a league table of Europeans under 50 at Majors:
Top tens:
23: Garcia
18: Westwood
16: McIlroy
15: Harrington
13: Rosey
11: Stenson
9: Casey
8: Bjorn, Donald, Poults

5).Top threes:
9: Westwood
7: Garcia, McIlroy
6: Stenson
4: Bjorn, Rose

Of course, another bloke is coming back to Tour action this week and he knocks this lot into the proverbial cocked hat:
Woods: Top tens: 38. Top threes: 24

6).The upcoming four events are at least as strong as any four consecutive weeks on Tour, Majors excluded, three of them with fantastic host courses:
Torrey Pines, Phoenix, Pebble Beach, Riviera - any string of events beat that lot? Certainly not any WGC's.

7).The migration of double-dippers begins in earnest in San Diego, with Harrington, Lowry, Molinari and Noren joining Justin Rose. Poulter flies west next week and the following week sees Casey, McDowell and Mcilroy.  

8).After noting last week that the Tour's season is about 25% of the way through, let's have a butcher's at the top Europeans in the all-important FedEx Points list, by position:
2nd: Rahm
10th: Rose
23rd: Cejka(!) (Will what happened in Vegas stay in Vegas or does he have more form to show? Usually plays well @ Pebble for instance.)
34th: Rafa C-B
44th: Stenson
53rd: Casey
60th: Knox
That'll change soon!

9).The Tour Champions defending their titles this next month or so are: Rahm this week, Matsuyama, Spieth at PB, Dustin, Fowler, DJ again - a pretty stout list.
As is the shorter list of the last three Farmers winners: Rahm, Snedeker, Day. Day and Snedeker both have excellent form here but you wouldn't bet on the health and/or form of either.
One pro who's been going through an awful time recently is Harris English and he had a dismal start (five missed cuts) to the season; but he conjured up an 11th place effort last week, has some course form, and might just be worth a tanner each way at a very long price this week. I'll go with Leishman as my one-and-done but his recent form has been up and down, to say the least.

10).Tiger Woods tees off with new BFF Patrick Reed and local lad Charley Hoffman, and has 8 W's here. Great that he's back and one hopes that his play matches the breathless anticipation. Even more important that his body holds up - if he makes the cut I can easily see him finishing Top Ten. And then he'll be talking Ryder Cup selection.
And on that subject, great to see Sergio, Fleetwood and Rahm scoring wins last week - but I would suggest that it's at least as important that Rose and Stenson stay fit and in form for Paris. They were neither in Minnesota, but their leadership and points will be crucial to bring the RC back to Europe. Whether Tiger is playing or not.

NB: Happy to see Justin will host the British Masters at Walton Heath. Great for WH to be showcased again.

10) Surely not even people as sentimental as the Yanks would pick 9C for the Ryder Cup?

Those euro player stats are interesting. Garcia stats show him to be a great of the game, Westwood aswell, major wins are overrated on sone players when compared to his consitency over the years.

ben,
They're better than Montgomerie for instance, altho' he DOES have 6 top 3's (4 at US Open), "only" ten top tens which is surprising.

Thanks for notes Kwini.  Good stuff.

Sungjae Im off to a hot start on the 2018 Webbie Tour.  Last week 1st place, and this week  2nd place should put well inside the Top 100, pending results from Dubai and San Diego.  with just a smattering of Webbie tournaments for the next 10 weeks, unlikely he can crash the Match Play party and yikes, even the Pimento Cheese Classic in Augusta.  Maybe his agent can snaggle a few sponsors invites on the big tour.

Yes, if Jon Rahm's successfully defends his title this week, he will become #1.  Joining Westwood and Donald as the only #1 golfers that have never won a major.  Duval was also #1 without a major, but he did win a Major afterwards.

and it could be a Lehman-esque tenure at #1, as he will have to validate the #1 ranking in Phoenix with at least 11.2 pts which at OWGR-58, is a solo 7th or better. Tom Lehman got to the #1 spot, held it for one week, and never got it again.

Lehman was the worst number one.

Kwini

Rose can be streaky but at least he seems to find form at some point in a season given that he has won every year apart from 2016 on the PGAT since 2010. But like The Open championship the Olympics might one day be given PGAT winning status.


24 Top threes for Tiger has to be something that irks him. To only need to convert 4 of the 24 (16%) of those top threes to equal Jacks 18 must now seem like something he could have achieved.


The double dippers are mentioned above and I wonder if more people on this site are coming round to the idea that dd'ing is becoming increasingly difficult if not impossible for those outside the top 10 or so players trying it?

Should be coolish (low 60's) for Rounds 1 & 2, light winds, then warming up for Saturday and, especially Sunday.
Greens reportedly quite firm so scoring could be on the high side.


Mac,
Tiger's 24 Top Threes includes his 14 wins.

I would think double-dipping has become "easier" for the elite players, more difficult for the more marginal (not in Top 30).
But planning a coherent schedule is crucial whatever ones ranking.

"Tiger's 24 Top Threes includes his 14 wins."

Bugger. Thought it meant top 3's but not the win.


I still think whether it is possible (keeping card on both tours) is different to it being best for the player. It still seems to be the case that for a lot of the DD'ers their world ranking falls once that start dd'ing. I assume their bank balances do better but is that all they care about?

Kwini’s list of top tens got me thinking on that subject, so I made a list of career top tens for every major winner since 2000. Major wins in brackets.

38: Woods (14), Mickelson (5)
35: Els (4)
23: Singh (3), Furyk, Garcia
16: Goosen (2), McIlroy, Scott
15: Harrington (3)
14: Day
13: D Johnson, Rose
11: Duval, Stenson, Toms, Weir
10: Cabrera (2)
9: Z Johnson (2), Cink
8: Ogilvy
7: Spieth (3), Clarke
6: Kaymer (2), Dufner, Koepka, Oosthuizen
5: McDowell, Schwartzel
4: Watson (2), Campbell, Curtis, Walker
3: Bradley, Immelman, Yang
2: Glover, Micheel, Thomas, Willett
1: Beem, Hamilton, Simpson

Shows how good a finisher Tiger was at his peak. I’d forgotten how solid a player Mike Weir was for a few years also. Day, Spieth, Koepka haven’t hung around climbing the list, McDowell, Schwartzel, Bubba have maybe flattered to deceive. And Oosthuizen goes all or nothing when you consider his six include a win and four runner-ups.

Ned,
That's a great list!
Quite surprised that Goosen has so many, and as you say King Charl is a bit of a shocker.
(I checked Davis Love being as he was very much of that era and was surprised that he has "only" 21.)

Kinda surprised Gerry only has 4 top tens because it felt like he went through a pretty strong period through the years of his masters wins.

No word yet about Jason Day; he's due on the tee @ 10.30 a.m. Pacific time so assume he's good to go.

EDIT: Day birdied the first so definitely playing! No fireworks yet.

Thanks for the notes Kwin. Always a great read. I've played TP once ... and plan to play it again. What a fantastic place. (The lodge is also a treat if you enjoy the Mission/Craftsman style.)

Be very surprised if TW makes the cut but I won't be surprised if he finishes two rounds. Appears to have things kinda sorted out?

Tiger's looking a lot more comfortable than Jason Day.

Actually playing pretty well, I'd say. Can't see that he's made anything longer than 4 ft and you know that'll change.


Only time I turned up at Torrey Pines, at 5.30 a.m., I was told I might get on by 9.00 a.m. - made an early start for Pebble Beach which enabled me to play an extra 18 holes there. In hindsight I wish I'd hung around!

Very happy to see Hunner playing so well; and also playing better the last few rounds is Nick Watney. Seems both have been awol for four years.

Not long before we hear a cry of "need more reps"

Pretty decent round looked a little rusty as you'd expect but his swing looks as comfortable as it has for 5 years.

9C looked fine. As we discussed during the Hero, no more mad axeman swing. But I must say I did think he looked a tiny bit stiffer than during the Hero?

And it'll be interesting to see how far Rahm can take it.

I only saw a couple of Tigers holes yesterday but for those that saw more how was his chipping and general short game? No doubt his long game will be good enough to compete and all the swing coaches I have heard discuss his current swing say it is pretty good but if he can't ship the ball close he may as well not turn up.


On related note Chamblee has trotted this stat out a few times, the worst average chipping proximity on tour is usually about 8 feet over a season and Tiger managed an average of 13 feet the last time he made a cut (2015 Wyndham). I haven't checked the accuracy of this claim but it's interesting if true.

I wasn’t watching closely, but from what I saw rusty would be the word. Not at the level of his chipping yips last year, more leaving 12-footers when he should be leaving 4-footers. Long game looked solid, pleasantly surprised with his driving save for one or two loose ones. It’s the scrambling that might not be there any more though.... doesn’t look particularly confident with the putter. And that feeds back, where once you’d expect him to salvage a par from a poor shot now any loose drive or iron and you’re expecting bogey.

Peter Kostis made a point yesterday that I'd never have thought of: That any chippy yippiness usually manifests itself on bare or skinny lies, not so much from the thick rough where he can take a fuller swing.

I'd give him fuller marks, a couple of mis-clubs or catching a short iron or two a bit heavy, but he didn't make ANYTHING on the greens, nothing longer than four feet as far as I can see and strokes gained putting was negative 1.4 - very un-Tigerlike. To which Faldo noted that he's spent all his time practicing on Bermuda and wouldn't have putted on poa annua (probably) since last year's abortive effort.

And, not for nothing, but LaCava hasn't spent much time carrying the bag since the latest Woods swing change - caddies can be rusty too, not that that's any excuse for the pro, but still.

Now he probably needs a 60-something to make the cut, tho' 70 might just do it. He doesn't have to play much better to achieve that.

Both courses played pretty much even (.3 stroke difference Thursday) yesterday, but don't think Tiger has played the newly-done greens on the "North".

Yeah I think we should give Tiger some slack. He did pretty well. I don't think we would expect any other golfer on the planet to make the cut after being sidelined for 2 years.

Heard something during the early round coverage of the Dubai tournament that Dylan Fritelli is wanting to play on the RYDER Cup.

Yes he is South African, but apparently owns an Italian Passport. He is supposed to be meeting with Bjorn and the RC Powers that Be.

If he is deemed to be eligible, wonder if they will grandfather the points he has already earned.
He has earned 60.79 OWGR pts which puts him 5th in that ranking (ahead of Sergio who has 57 pts)

He is 5th in the RtD standings in 2018 and finished 2nd in Turkey last fall so he would be in contention in the Euro Pt Race as well.

GPB,
Two who might have to make a somewhat similar (international or US) decision in the future are Sean Crocker (Zimbabwe or US) and Austin Connolly (Canada or US).
It looks as if the ET has its arms properly wrapped around Sam Horsfield, but this sort of situation will surely become more common.

NedB-H wrote:Kwini’s list of top tens got me thinking on that subject, so I made a list of career top tens for every major winner since 2000. Major wins in brackets.

38: Woods (14), Mickelson (5)

....

Shows how good a finisher Tiger was at his peak.

38 top 10's each for Woods and Mickelson.

Nicklaus had 37 Top 2's!!  And 45 Top 3's

BTW, your list doesn't specify the 4 majors that Rory has won.

Should be perfect conditions, clear, calm, for the early starters to day. Looks like -2 (at least) will be the cut-line.

GB&I golfers mostly off to a good start, except Luke Donald & Martin Laird (lousy start to his year so far, and at courses he often plays well on); sign of struggles to come?

Interesting nugget from the Golf Channel following Tiger's near miss on the Par-3 16th hole yesterday: He hasn't had a hole-in-one on Tour for almost 20 years. Tough to believe.
Almost missed the golf course on his first tee shot Friday.

So much for comments about Jason Day's welfare: Low round on course so far, -4.

kwinigolfer wrote:Interesting nugget from the Golf Channel following Tiger's near miss on the Par-3 16th hole yesterday: He hasn't had a hole-in-one on Tour for almost 20 years. Tough to believe.
Almost missed the golf course on his first tee hot Friday.

That is pretty interesting given how we have been told over the years that his proximity to the hole from 150+ was a lot better than his peers. It would also be interesting to compare his hole in one record to the other top players of his era like Garcia, Els, Mickelson, VJ etc.

I think you'd be surprised Mac, it's people like Monty and Jiminez that have a huge amount of hole in ones.

Good to see Noren starting his full PGA Tour career off well!! Would he be counted as a rookie this season?

Holes in one PGA Tour Click here
European Tour Click here (The Mechanic leads Monty by 10-9)

Tiger needs to birdie his last hole - a par 5 to make the cut. Just bogied his 17th.

I'm never wrong wrote:Holes in one PGA Tour Click here
European Tour Click here  (The Mechanic leads Monty by 10-9)

That's a great find!
Given that he's only been on Tour for a few years, Scott Brown has quite the hit rate.

Tiger makes his birdie. In the house tied 59th. Currently that makes the cut.

Didn't watch any of today's play but looks as if he drove from one solar system to another. But would think he'd take heart from playing the weekend, pretty good achievement and could still earn himself a decent finish.

Shane Lowry looks as if he's stuck in reverse; four holes to get back in gear.

Good to see Noren starting his full PGA Tour career off well!! Would he be counted as a rookie this season?

No, Nor should he be.

Anyone that has 7 or more starts on the PGATour in any previous season cannot be rookie of the year.

A world Class player should not be in contention for RoY on any tour.  He has a big competitive advantage, exempt into the WGCs and Majors, which a bona-fide rookie probably would not get into.

Rookies IMO, should always start in the Webbie category.

Suppose Kuchar win a major and WGC this year, should he be eligible for the EuroT RoY?  He just took associate membership on the EuroT for the first time.  Heck, no.

Thanks GPB for the answer!

Great to see Tiger make the cut, most of all great to see him in good shape physically

sirbenson wrote:Good to see Noren starting his full PGA Tour career off well!! Would he be counted as a rookie this season?

Sure he wouldn't care, much more interested in having shot 66 today.
Good to see him and Rahm in contention, but what happened to GB&I . . . . . . ?

Hadn't realised that Spieth & Thomas are playing in Phoenix - this is going to be a strong(!) strength of field.

kwinigolfer wrote:Hadn't realised that Spieth & Thomas are playing in Phoenix - this is going to be a strong(!) strength of field.

I got it at OWGR-60  (preliminary)

If it stays at OWGR-60, Rahm needs a solo 15th or better to have a chance at #1 next week.

If he wins this week, he will need a Top 6 next week to keep the #1 spot.

Thanks. Very strong.
Riviera will be strong too. The season is warming up nicely!

Pebble will be strong as well

DJ-Rahm-Spieth-Rory will be there.

Paul Casey, Adam Scott and Mickelson.

http://www.attpbgolf.com/players/

GPB wrote:

Good to see Noren starting his full PGA Tour career off well!! Would he be counted as a rookie this season?

No, Nor should he be.

Anyone that has 7 or more starts on the PGATour in any previous season cannot be rookie of the year.

A world Class player should not be in contention for RoY on any tour.  He has a big competitive advantage, exempt into the WGCs and Majors, which a bona-fide rookie probably would not get into.

Rookies IMO, should always start in the Webbie category.

Suppose Kuchar win a major and WGC this year, should he be eligible for the EuroT RoY?  He just took associate membership on the EuroT for the first time.  Heck, no.

What is the origin of the terrible term "rookie"?
It's a farce of an award anyway, does anyone remember when The All American Fowler with zero wins, beat Johnny Foreigner McIlroy?

Rory was a World Class Player when he joined the Tour in 2010.  He was ranked 9th in the OWGR at the end of 2009.

IMO, and as such,  he shouldn't have been classified as a "rookie" on the PGATour.

He had a huge competitive advantage over the bona-fide rookies.  He was exempt for all the WGCs and Majors, while a true rookie is sweating the re-shuffle, hoping he is high enough on the pecking order to get into tournaments.

And FWIW, since the FEX playoffs started in 2007, the RoY has been the player who finished highest in the FEX Rankings.  2010 was no different.

And if you are insinuating there was Pro-American bias in the 2010 RoY vote, I will remind you that the 2008 and 2009 RoY's were non-Americans.  Andres Romero and Marc Leishman.

IMO, there was a anti Rory bias in the vote, but it wasn't because he was from Europe, its because he was not a "true" rookie.

I don't think Matt Kuchar should be considered a rookie on the Euro Tour.  Do you?

As far as the term "rookie", here you go

http://bfy.tw/GHCv

Just listening to Thomas Bjorn on the Golf Channel telecast of the Dubai tournament. He didn't come out and say it directly, but it sounded like Fritelli is going to be eligible for the Euro RC team.
And Bjorn didn't seem to be happy about it.

Bjorn should welcome all the competition he can muster - but is it a wise move from Frittelli?


They'll be off in a few minutes @ Torrey Pines; a little warmer than days 1 & 2, should be perfect conditions for scoring.

Couple of OWGR streaks coming to end this week
Bubba will be falling out of the Top 100 this week, He has been inside the Top 100 since June 2008.
Furyk falling out of the Top 200. Ending a streak of 23 years inside the Top 200.
If Mickelson does not have a solid weekend, he could find himself outside the Top 50 for the first time in 24 years. Going into this week he is projected at #48 and with Hao Tong Li playing well in Dubai and Miyazato playing well in Myammar, Mickelson could find himself outside the top 50 since January 1994.

I didn't realised Rev Watson had fallen from grace quite so much, couldn't happen to a nicer fellow.

I'm never wrong wrote:Holes in one PGA Tour Click here
European Tour Click here  (The Mechanic leads Monty by 10-9)

Interesting that Gibby Gilbert is listed as having 6 and 5