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Six Nations final weekend: who needs what to finish where?

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Six Nations final weekend: who needs what to finish where? Empty Six Nations final weekend: who needs what to finish where?

Post by rugby4cast Tue 13 Mar 2018, 5:00 pm

Hello! Thought I'd do another one of these to outline the possibilities for this weekend. Obviously Ireland have won, but there's still potential for lost of movement in the middle. Any one of England, France, Scotland and Wales are able to occupy any position from second to fifth.

Sadly, 606 doesnt really support the pictures/content very well, so if you'd like to read this post in its entirety with all the pictures (it might be a little clearer also) then please visit our website here...

... but otherwise we've replicated as best as we can below.

Let’s approach this on a game by game basis, in order to show how it might unfold on the day. We will also be live tweeting requirements and situations on the day, so please follow us @Rugby4Cast to stay up-to-date.

Italy v Scotland
Italy and Scotland kick of the action at 1230. For the Italians there is nothing but pride at stake as they cannot finish anywhere but 6th. For the Scots however, there is all to play for, with even a tiny chance of 2nd should they demolish the Azzurri and other results go their way.

If Scotland lose, they will finish 5th.
If Scotland win, but don’t obtain the bonus point, they would end up on 12 points. This would mean they can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th. Scotland would be:

  • Above England should England lose, but below them should England win,

  • Above France should France lose, but below them should France win,

  • Level with Wales should Wales lose (but likely below due to points difference) but below them should Wales win.

If Scotland win, and obtain the bonus point, they would end up on 13 points. This would allow them the slim chance of finishing 2nd if England lose AND Wales and France draw. In this situation, Scotland and Wales would be on level points, and it would come down to points difference. To overcome the points difference between themselves and Wales however, Scotland would need to beat Italy by 65 points. Unlikely, we feel.

So let’s assume Scotland beat Italy, and finish on 12 or 13 points.

England v Ireland
England welcome Ireland to Twickenham next and, with an Irish Grand Slam on the line, this is surely the hot ticket of the day. For England however, national pride and 2017 revenge aside, there is a lot still to play for.

If England lose, and don’t obtain a losing bonus point they would likely finish 5th, but it could still depend on points difference in the Wales France match.
If England lose, and obtain a bonus point, they would likely finish:

  • 4th if Wales beat France

  • 5th if France beat Wales

If England win, but without a bonus point, they will leapfrog Scotland onto 14 points, and would either finish 2nd or 3rd depending on the outcome of the France Wales match.

  • Should Wales win, England would be 3rd.

  • Should France win, without a bonus point, England would likely be 2nd.

  • Should France win, with a bonus point, England would likely be 3rd.

If England win, and obtain a bonus point, they would likely finish 2nd, as it would probably require bonus point win by either Wales or France to catch them.

Let’s assume England win at home as our algorithm suggests (sorry Ireland), but without the bonus point and end up on 14 points.

Wales v France
The final match of the day kicks off in Cardiff at 1700. By this stage everyone will likely be far too drunk to make head nor tail of points required, so here it is as simply as possible.

If England have won,

Whoever wins in Cardiff will likely come 2nd (but it could still come down to points difference).
If England have lost,

Whoever wins in Cardiff will definitely come 2nd.
Under both circumstances, the loser will finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on bonus points and points difference.

So there you have it! It’s all perfectly simple really. And the wonderful thing about it is that after the first game all of this will likely be completely redundant anyway.

BUT, we’ll update all the requirements as the matches progress, so make sure you follow to stay abreast of proceedings.

[If we’ve missed anything, or if something looks wrong, please give us a shout and we’ll correct it. Enjoy the matches!]


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Join date : 2018-01-30

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