My Dad's bigger than your Dad

Date: Saturday 10th November 2018
Time: 15:00
Location: Twickenham Stadium

Referee:       Jerome Garces (France)
Assistant 1:  Jaco Peyper (SA)
Assistant 2:  Marius Mitrea (Italy)
TMO:            Marius Jonker (SA)




Teams


England

[size=42]15 Elliot Daly (Wasps, 22 caps), 14 Chris Ashton (Sale Sharks, 40 caps), 13 Henry Slade (Exeter Chiefs, 14 caps), 12 Ben Te’o (Worcester Warriors, 14 caps), 11 Jonny May (Leicester Tigers, 38 caps), 10 Owen Farrell (Saracens, 62 caps) co-captain, 9 Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers, 78 caps), 1 Ben Moon (Exeter Chiefs, 1 cap), 2 Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints, 94 caps) co-captain, 3 Kyle Sinckler (Harlequins, 14 caps), 4 Maro Itoje (Saracens, 23 caps), 5 George Kruis (Saracens, 26 caps), 6 Brad Shields (Wasps, 3 caps), 7 Sam Underhill (Bath Rugby, 6 caps), 8 Mark Wilson (Newcastle Falcons, 5 caps).[/size]
[size=42]Finishers[/size]
[size=42]16 Jamie George (Saracens, 29 caps), 17 Alec Hepburn (Exeter Chiefs, 3 caps), 18 Harry Williams (Exeter Chiefs, 12 caps), 19 Charlie Ewels (Bath Rugby, 7 caps), 20 Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints, 65 caps), 21 Danny Care (Harlequins, 82 caps), 22 George Ford (Leicester Tigers, 48 caps), 23 Jack Nowell (Exeter Chiefs, 27 caps).[/size]




New Zealand

1. Karl Tu'inukuafe (10)
2. Codie Taylor (39)
3. Owen Franks (104)
4. Samuel Whitelock (106)
5. Brodie Retallick (72)
6. Liam Squire (21) 
7. Ardie Savea (32)
8. Kieran Read - captain (115)
9. Aaron Smith (80)
10. Beauden Barrett (70)
11. Rieko Ioane (21)
12. Sonny Bill Williams (50)
13. Jack Goodhue (5)
14. Ben Smith (74)
15. Damian McKenzie (20)

16. Dane Coles (57)
17. Ofa Tuungafasi (23)
18. Nepo Laulala (14)
19. Scott Barrett (26)
20. Matt Todd (15)
21. TJ Perenara (52)
22. Richie Mo'unga (5)
23. Ryan Crotty (42

25-20 England to win. Jonny May winner.

Collapse2005 wrote:25-20 England to win. Jonny May winner.

I would love to believe, but feel 25-45 more likely.


Not sure Eddie will make too many changes. Probable absence of Curry perhaps the only change, though Moon to start could also easily happen. Personally I felt the midfield looked too stodgy, and Daly struggled under some admittedly good high balls. Think that Eddie will keep the backs as is though - with Manu maybe on bench.

I just hope England hang in there and are in the game with 5 mins to go.
If they manage that and lose I think we will still be in a good place.

Saying that unless we improve our discipline then we will get thumped by the Kiwis, oh we also need to start scoring tries (minimum of 3 vs NZ)

TightHEAD wrote:I just hope England hang in there and are in the game with 5 mins to go.
If they manage that and lose I think we will still be in a good place.

Saying that unless we improve our discipline then we will get thumped by the Kiwis, oh we also need to start scoring tries (minimum of 3 vs NZ)

We will score 3 tries, but will concede double that I fear.

[quote="LondonTiger"]
TMO:            Marius Jonker (SA)

We're doomed! OF to go to the TMO in the 1st 5 minutes for looking at the ref a bit squint - definite Red Card.

LondonTiger wrote:

TightHEAD wrote:I just hope England hang in there and are in the game with 5 mins to go.
If they manage that and lose I think we will still be in a good place.

Saying that unless we improve our discipline then we will get thumped by the Kiwis, oh we also need to start scoring tries (minimum of 3 vs NZ)

We will score 3 tries, but will concede double that I fear.

You'll score 3 tries against NZ but couldn't score 1 against a very poor SA side ?

New Zealand by about 15-20, I reckon, unless the England of the first half on Saturday shows up, in which case it could be a 30-40 point margin!

For England to have any chance, they need to be utterly ruthless in taking chances, dominate the collisions, and not kick so much ball away. A Kiwi red card would also be very welcome.

If England are two scores ahead or more (haha) come the hour mark, they might just win. Narrowly ahead, even or behind? Forget it.

LondonTiger wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:25-20 England to win. Jonny May winner.

I would love to believe, but feel 25-45 more likely.


Not sure Eddie will make too many changes. Probable absence of Curry perhaps the only change, though Moon to start could also easily happen. Personally I felt the midfield looked too stodgy, and Daly struggled under some admittedly good high balls. Think that Eddie will keep the backs as is though - with Manu maybe on bench.

As bad as England were v the Boks I cant see NZ scoring 45 points against England. England's defense is still quite good and NZ tend to score less points against NH opposition.

Collapse2005 wrote:25-20 England to win. Jonny May winner.

Your honest appraisal. Ok we’ll see how good you are.

Ill go NZ by 24

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:25-20 England to win. Jonny May winner.

Your honest appraisal. Ok we’ll see how good you are.

Ill go NZ by 24

Plus 24 is a big call. NZ tend not to win November internationals by such big margins and England do have a decent defense. Its not the rugby championship TMan.

What's your score prediction for Ireland v NZ?

I would be surprised if New Zealand lost but will be a lot of pressure to lay down a marker. When they had to lay down a marker v SA in South Africa (for beating them) they just got over the line.

The people back home are expecting 15 - 20pt wins in these two games so if England can get an early lead NZ might try miracle passes to much.

Anyone know if the odds at the bookies expect NZ to win by a bigger margin after that match at the weekend, or narrower margin?

Boyle sports has the handicap at 15 points for England v NZ and 6 points Ireland v NZ.

Ladbrooks lists the handicap at plus 13 for the England game.

William Hill plus 14 and plus 6 for the Ireland game.

I fear for England big time. Scrum might get decimated conceding vital penalties. NZ won't over throw the line outs like SA. They will be more ruthless. Getting any territory will be difficult and then doing something with the ball will be a challenge. I am going for a 25 point defeat.

Hoping my pessimism amounts to zero and England do us proud. 1st match with a new coach and defensive system, which should only improve, albeit I still expect mistakes to be made at this point. Potentially having Courtney and Manu back will assist the later stages. Somehow we need the penalty count to be much lower and when chances do come to be good enough to take them. Getting the balance between playing on the edge and giving away penalties and yellow cards will be vital, but I fear the gulf in class will be emphasised come the final whistle.

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:25-20 England to win. Jonny May winner.

Your honest appraisal. Ok we’ll see how good you are.

Ill go NZ by 24

Plus 24 is a big call. NZ tend not to win November internationals by such big margins and England do have a decent defense. Its not the rugby championship TMan.

What's your score prediction for Ireland v NZ?

Yes NZ tend not to score by big margins but this years clearly stands out as an exception to the usual. 1, theyve picked 51 players to manage the load on the way over, and 2, England have more injuries than usual for this time of year, and have just had a very tough match first up, having to defend wave afer wave v SA, and also have their furst 7 now on crutches.

By the way, what do you define as a big margin? Since 2010 the ABs have won 22 from 24 matches at 37-18 over all autumn internationals. Over Home 7nions its 30-18, and youre right. This isnt the RC, this is easier. Much easier.

That justifies the larger margin.The prep going into the match supports it.

The front row availability of both sides is a huge contrast. In Moody we probably now have the best 1 or 2 loosehead in the game and in Karl T, Owens, Laulala amongst the best tights. Hansen will target the english front row before going wide is the thinking.

Ireland? At this stage it will be less but probably 12-15 at this stage. Cant take anything from an Italy match in Chicago, tells us nothing other than whos available. Who do they have this week?

If its easier than the rugby championship why do NZ consistently achieve higher margins of defeat in the RC? I mean in your last November test in europe you scraped a win v Scotland while previously hammering SA by 100 points.

Come on get real Taylorman. Now that some refs mostly the excellent French ones have started reffing NZ properly I wouldnt bet against NZ gathering a few red cards this Nov. The Maori v US certainly point to lingering dicipline issues in NZ rugby. Im sure you will agree.

Ireland play Argentina. Ill be bringing my wife who is herself from Buenos Aires. Should be tasty.

Collapse2005 wrote:If its easier than the rugby championship why do NZ consistently achieve higher margins of defeat in the RC? I mean in your last November test in europe you scraped a win v Scotland while previously hammering SA by 100 points.

Come on get real Taylorman. Now that some refs mostly the excellent French ones have started reffing NZ properly I wouldnt bet against NZ gathering a few red cards this Nov. The Maori v US certainly point to lingering dicipline issues in NZ rugby. Im sure you will agree.

Ireland play Argentina. Ill be bringing my wife who is herself from Buenos Aires. Should be tasty.

Are you thick or what? Its end of season. We put 20,30 ,60 on NH sides when the come here. How come your sides dont put big margins touring south, sorry, take that back, how come you rarely ever win at all.

Geez no idea. These are the lowest prio matches of the year for us and even then all you can criticise is the margins?

England in 12 is the only one to even win at home since 2010 and I think that even goes back to 2003 or something like that.

Can you not get it. Touring the NH for the ABs is the easiest segment of our year, along with the northern tours south. Funny that.

Regardless of how England did it they have won their last to matches v SA. Has to be good for confidence. EJ surely has tricks up his sleeves, if not he can ask Conor O'Shea for some.

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:If its easier than the rugby championship why do NZ consistently achieve higher margins of defeat in the RC? I mean in your last November test in europe you scraped a win v Scotland while previously hammering SA by 100 points.

Come on get real Taylorman. Now that some refs mostly the excellent French ones have started reffing NZ properly I wouldnt bet against NZ gathering a few red cards this Nov. The Maori v US certainly point to lingering dicipline issues in NZ rugby. Im sure you will agree.

Ireland play Argentina. Ill be bringing my wife who is herself from Buenos Aires. Should be tasty.

Are you thick or what? Its end of season. We put 20,30 ,60 on NH sides when the come here. How come your sides dont put big margins touring south, sorry, take that back, how come you rarely ever win at all.

Geez no idea. These are the lowest prio matches of the year for us and even then all you can criticise is the margins?

England in 12 is the only one to even win at home since 2019 and I think that even goes back to 3003 or something like that.

Can you not get it. Touring the NH for the ABs is the easiest segment of our year, along with the northern tours south. Funny that.

Haha am I thick? The games are being played up in the NH you big dumbo. Hahahaha

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:If its easier than the rugby championship why do NZ consistently achieve higher margins of defeat in the RC? I mean in your last November test in europe you scraped a win v Scotland while previously hammering SA by 100 points.

Come on get real Taylorman. Now that some refs mostly the excellent French ones have started reffing NZ properly I wouldnt bet against NZ gathering a few red cards this Nov. The Maori v US certainly point to lingering dicipline issues in NZ rugby. Im sure you will agree.

Ireland play Argentina. Ill be bringing my wife who is herself from Buenos Aires. Should be tasty.

Are you thick or what? Its end of season. We put 20,30 ,60 on NH sides when the come here. How come your sides dont put big margins touring south, sorry, take that back, how come you rarely ever win at all.

Geez no idea. These are the lowest prio matches of the year for us and even then all you can criticise is the margins?

England in 12 is the only one to even win at home since 2019 and I think that even goes back to 3003 or something like that.

Can you not get it. Touring the NH for the ABs is the easiest segment of our year, along with the northern tours south. Funny that.

Haha am I thick? The games are being played up in the NH you big dumbo. Hahahaha

Exactly. Easy peasy land. Where home advantage is supposed be a plus. Oddly, ABs have a better record at all your ‘homes’ by a distance.

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:If its easier than the rugby championship why do NZ consistently achieve higher margins of defeat in the RC? I mean in your last November test in europe you scraped a win v Scotland while previously hammering SA by 100 points.

Come on get real Taylorman. Now that some refs mostly the excellent French ones have started reffing NZ properly I wouldnt bet against NZ gathering a few red cards this Nov. The Maori v US certainly point to lingering dicipline issues in NZ rugby. Im sure you will agree.

Ireland play Argentina. Ill be bringing my wife who is herself from Buenos Aires. Should be tasty.

Are you thick or what? Its end of season. We put 20,30 ,60 on NH sides when the come here. How come your sides dont put big margins touring south, sorry, take that back, how come you rarely ever win at all.

Geez no idea.

I guess you missed the running rugby that made Agentina look terrible in the Summer v how they were able to win games in the RC. Yes different coach but doesn't explain the big swing in scores to as NZers like to call B/C sides.

Are you suggesting that the other SH sides will clean sweep or even have a winning ratio.

New Zealand are the best but England away is a harder challagne than Oz away or Argentina away

It does not matter who is in the line up for this game. They will have to pl;ay a hell of a lot better than they did last week.

Id imagine even the Welsh will be supporting England on Saturday

Rugby Fan wrote:Anyone know if the odds at the bookies expect NZ to win by a bigger margin after that match at the weekend, or narrower margin?

Margin largely unchanged. NZ currently at 13/14 points margin and 1/7 for the win. Quite a lot of money going on England at 9/1 to win driven by the odds. Thus the win odds could shorten as bookies look to protect their money.

LondonTiger wrote:

Rugby Fan wrote:Anyone know if the odds at the bookies expect NZ to win by a bigger margin after that match at the weekend, or narrower margin?

Margin largely unchanged. NZ currently at 13/14 points margin and 1/7 for the win. Quite a lot of money going on England at 9/1 to win driven by the odds. Thus the win odds could shorten as bookies look to protect their money.

9/1 in a two horse race after beating SA. Might get some of that myself. Wouldnt want to commiserate over a cheap wine when England can pay for champagne now.

SA arent a great side though. NZs loss against them was one of the biggest upsets of all time. 7 beats 1 away from home.

Collapse2005 wrote:SA arent a great side though. NZs loss against them was one of the biggest upsets of all time. 7 beats 1 away from home.

They were when they beat NZ. Their skill levels dropped off incredibly vs England. Example: Marx threw accurately vs NZ. Vs England he thought his locks were nine foot tall. That's the level of skill fall off that happened across the side. No way England would have beaten the side that played NZ to win.

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:SA arent a great side though. NZs loss against them was one of the biggest upsets of all time. 7 beats 1 away from home.

They were when they beat NZ. Their skill levels dropped off incredibly vs England. Example: Marx threw accurately vs NZ. Vs England he thought his locks were nine foot tall. That's the level of skill fall off that happened across the side. No way England would have beaten the side that played NZ to win.

Maybe the England second row put Marx under the kind of pressure he isnt used to in the rugby chumpionship. Maybe he just isnt as good as you think.

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:SA arent a great side though. NZs loss against them was one of the biggest upsets of all time. 7 beats 1 away from home.

They were when they beat NZ. Their skill levels dropped off incredibly vs England. Example: Marx threw accurately vs NZ. Vs England he thought his locks were nine foot tall. That's the level of skill fall off that happened across the side. No way England would have beaten the side that played NZ to win.

And maybe SA played so bad because they were scared OF might shoulder charge them. I don't know, but it would not surprise me if the England defense helped SA to play so badly.

5th in the 6th nations beats 2nd in the RC with their B side. That should be your headline Tman.

Collapse2005 wrote:5th in the 6th nations beats 2nd in the RC with their B side. That should be your headline Tman.

Nah, Id prefer last in the RC thrashes Ireland and dumps them out of the World cup.

Has a better ring to it.

I like the underdog status for England. In 2012 nobody gave them a prayer, myself included, and we all know how that turned out.

I know it's unlikely but hey, I can dream can't I?

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:5th in the 6th nations beats 2nd in the RC with their B side. That should be your headline Tman.

Nah, Id prefer last in the RC thrashes Ireland and dumps them out of the World cup.

Has a better ring to it.

You think Argentina are going to thrash Ireland on Saturday?

Whats your prediction?

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:5th in the 6th nations beats 2nd in the RC with their B side. That should be your headline Tman.

Nah, Id prefer last in the RC thrashes Ireland and dumps them out of the World cup.

Has a better ring to it.

You think Argentina are going to thrash Ireland on Saturday?

Whats your prediction?

I think they'll go ok. Ireland should win but Argie acquitted themselves well this year at times. Their pack isn't the threat it used to be but in Boffin and Sanchez they have some serious attack skills, Sanchez will need to be watched big time.

I'll go Argie by 3 points in support of the SH side.

Will you be putting that in your prediction then, Taylor? I think Ireland should win by 10-15 (unless they rest a serious number of players for NZ).

Oops.... forgive the intrusion.  I thought I was coming into the England V New Zealand thread to have a little spy on the moods and thoughts going into the game

....but, if'n it ain't the Guns v TMan show playing on this channel too!  Mighty popular show but I'll wait for the box set then binge.

Don't think it will be close nz will always stay 2 scores ahead. Too much quality in the nz team to simply defend and win. Big games are needed from our boys to be victorious and fingers crossed we get that. I would be happy with a marked improvement in game play across 80 Mon not 30 with some nice tries.

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:5th in the 6th nations beats 2nd in the RC with their B side. That should be your headline Tman.

Nah, Id prefer last in the RC thrashes Ireland and dumps them out of the World cup.

Has a better ring to it.

You think Argentina are going to thrash Ireland on Saturday?

Whats your prediction?

I think they'll go ok. Ireland should win but Argie acquitted themselves well this year at times. Their pack isn't the threat it used to be but in Boffin and Sanchez they have some serious attack skills, Sanchez will need to be watched big time.

I'll go Argie by 3 points in support of the SH side.

Argentina have never won in Ireland. Lets see.

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:SA arent a great side though. NZs loss against them was one of the biggest upsets of all time. 7 beats 1 away from home.

They were when they beat NZ. Their skill levels dropped off incredibly vs England. Example: Marx threw accurately vs NZ. Vs England he thought his locks were nine foot tall. That's the level of skill fall off that happened across the side. No way England would have beaten the side that played NZ to win.

Maybe the England second row put Marx under the kind of pressure he isnt used to in the rugby chumpionship. Maybe he just isnt as good as you think.

Aha, so youre saying a depleted england side that lost a series in South Afica out more pressure on the boks than the ABs did at home after the boks lost to oz a week earlier.

That sort of analysis belongs in the toilet. Honestly. Youre on another planet.

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:5th in the 6th nations beats 2nd in the RC with their B side. That should be your headline Tman.

Nah, Id prefer last in the RC thrashes Ireland and dumps them out of the World cup.

Has a better ring to it.

You think Argentina are going to thrash Ireland on Saturday?

Whats your prediction?

I think they'll go ok. Ireland should win but Argie acquitted themselves well this year at times. Their pack isn't the threat it used to be but in Boffin and Sanchez they have some serious attack skills, Sanchez will need to be watched big time.

I'll go Argie by 3 points in support of the SH side.

Argentina have never won in Ireland. Lets see.

True. Ireland have never won in Ireland vs the ABs. Same logic there holding that back? Think you better allow for the ‘theres always a first’ theory huh?

I dont recall claiming Ireland were going to thrash the ABs. You are predicting an Argentina win though. Of course its possible.

Its also possible England will win on Saturday. That would be fun wouldnt it.

Collapse2005 wrote:I dont recall claiming Ireland were going to thrash the ABs. You are predicting an Argentina win though. Of course its possible.

Its also possible England will win on Saturday. That would be fun wouldnt it.

Dont know. Depends how they win it. 2012 was certainly fun.

Odd though that you can back England to beat NZ but you cant back Ireland. Now assuming you dont believe England is better that Ireland I call that being chicken. Too scared to put your money where your mouth is. What else explains that?

Guns/Taylorman - how about you start a new thread or just continue your relationship via private message? Give us all a break on regular threads.

Is Ford expected to come back in for England this week? I have to say I could not figure out the selection of Te'o. Even when he's match fit I think England's backline is much more dangerous with the Ford-Farrell axis.

On Farrell- penalty or not at the end he stood up and won that game for England with that tackle and rip a few minutes earlier. Great player and leader.

There are a lot of selection conundrums.

Daly didn't look comfortable defending up-and-unders, so you have to decide if he can rise to the occasion against NZ, or whether to revert to Brown, who is the only real alternative in the squad (I don't see Ashton there, except in an injury crisis).

Do that, however, and you have to choose two wingers from May, Nowell, Ashton and Daly. The other two might not even make the bench if Tuilagi is fit, and Jones goes with his original imatch day squad idea.

England seem to have a surfeit of options at winger and lock, none of which are bad combinations, which leads to the temptation to try and squeeze another player in somewhere else.

Gonna go for 25 to AB's now. I think England are the walking wounded- more so than we think after looking at a couple of articles our way. They put up a massive fight vs the Bok's and for me have done their big one for the AI's, now its about survival.

AB's would be silly not to run them ragged around the park looking for holes while doing so.

25-30 methinks...

Taylorman wrote:Gonna go for 25 to AB's now. I think England are the walking wounded- more so than we think after looking at a couple of articles our way. They put up a massive fight vs the Bok's and for me have done their big one for the AI's, now its about survival.

AB's would be silly not to run them ragged around the park looking for holes while doing so.

25-30 methinks...

With Jones picking favourites injuries to some might be a blessing, seemed to fix their breakdown problems in the first half last week

Tom Curry is out of England's autumn Test against New Zealand with what head coach Eddie Jones described as a "severe ankle injury".

Manu Tuilagi and Courtney Lawes are both expected to be available.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/46105540

Rugby Fan wrote:

Tom Curry is out of England's autumn Test against New Zealand with what head coach Eddie Jones described as a "severe ankle injury".

Manu Tuilagi and Courtney Lawes are both expected to be available.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/46105540

Does Tuilagi have form? because thats one the ABs will be looking to cover after 2012. Possibly the best back performance vs the ABs since then.