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Post by LondonTiger on Wed 03 Apr 2019, 11:08 am

First topic message reminder :

Table
England 2pts (+2.08nrr)
Afghanistan
Australia
Bangladesh
India
New Zealand
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
West Indies
South Africa 0pts (-2.08 nrr)


Pool Fixtures

Thu, May 30 
10:30 England vs South Africa  (The Oval)

Fri, May 31 
10:30 West Indies vs Pakistan (Trent Bridge)

Sat, Jun 1 
10:30 New Zealand vs Sri Lanka (Cardiff)
13:30 Afghanistan vs Australia (Bristol)

Sun, Jun 2 
10:30 South Africa vs Bangladesh (The Oval)

Mon, Jun 3 
10:30 England vs Pakistan (Trent Bridge)

Tue, Jun 4 
10:30 Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka (Cardiff)

Wed, Jun 5 
10:30 South Africa vs India (Southampton)
13:30 Bangladesh vs New Zealand (The Oval)

Thu, Jun 6 
10:30 Australia vs West Indies (Trent Bridge)

Fri, Jun 7 
10:30 Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Bristol)

Sat, Jun 8 
10:30 England vs Bangladesh (Cardiff)
13:30 Afghanistan vs New Zealand (Taunton)

Sun, Jun 9 
10:30 Australia vs India (The Oval)

Mon, Jun 10 
10:30 South Africa vs West Indies (Southampton)

Tue, Jun 11 
10:30 Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka (Bristol)

Wed, Jun 12 
10:30 Australia vs Pakistan (Taunton)

Thu, Jun 13 
10:30 India vs New Zealand (Trent Bridge)

Fri, Jun 14 
10:30 England vs West Indies (Southampton)

Sat, Jun 15 
10:30 Australia vs Sri Lanka (The Oval)
13:30 Afghanistan vs South Africa (Cardiff)

Sun, Jun 16 
10:30 India vs Pakistan (Old Trafford)

Mon, Jun 17 
10:30 Bangladesh vs West Indies (Taunton)

Tue, Jun 18 
10:30 England vs Afghanistan (Old Trafford)

Wed, Jun 19 
10:30 New Zealand vs South Africa (Edgbaston)

Thu, Jun 20 
10:30 Australia vs Bangladesh (Trent Bridge)

Fri, Jun 21 
10:30 England vs Sri Lanka (Headingley)

Sat, Jun 22 
10:30 Afghanistan vs India (Southampton)
13:30 New Zealand vs West Indies (Old Trafford)

Sun, Jun 23 
10:30 Pakistan vs South Africa (Lord’s)

Mon, Jun 24 
10:30 Afghanistan vs Bangladesh (Southampton)

Tue, Jun 25 
10:30 England vs Australia (Lord’s)

Wed, Jun 26 
10:30 New Zealand vs Pakistan (Edgbaston)

Thu, Jun 27 
10:30 India vs West Indies (Old Trafford)

Fri, Jun 28 
10:30 South Africa vs Sri Lanka (Edgbaston)

Sat, Jun 29 
10:30 Afghanistan vs Pakistan (Headingley)
13:30 Australia vs New Zealand (Lord’s)

Sun, Jun 30 
10:30 England vs India (Edgbaston)

Mon, Jul 1 
10:30 Sri Lanka vs West Indies (Riverside Ground)

Tue, Jul 2 
10:30 Bangladesh vs India (Edgbaston)

Wed, Jul 3 
10:30 England vs New Zealand (Riverside Ground)

Thu, Jul 4 
10:30 Afghanistan vs West Indies (Headingley)

Fri, Jul 5 
10:30 Bangladesh vs Pakistan (Lord’s)

Sat, Jul 6 
10:30 India vs Sri Lanka (Headingley)
13:30 Australia vs South Africa (Old Trafford)




Knock Out Fixtures


To Follow


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Post by guildfordbat on Sun 26 May 2019, 12:28 am

Olly / Duty- I was really trying to make the point that there are several teams who could win this competition. We are undoubtedly and strongly in that mix. However, we are not alone - just maybe that needs to be kept in mind. Australia are another serious contender and I would guess they will be further encouraged by today's result, regardless of anyone missing from the England side.

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Post by alfie on Sun 26 May 2019, 6:59 am

I don't think anything should be assumed about this WC. England are reasonably seen as favorites due to their record over the last year or two plus home ground advantage , and I would be shocked were they to miss the semi finals: but come those knock out matches , anything can happen.
I fancy the logical England Australia India and NZ to be those last four , but I guess even that is not a given. SA have some good players , if less than before , and Pakistan are ...well , Pakistan.

What have these warm up games actually proved so far ?

Well , one : England would probably have preferred not to play them . They were warm enough already after the Pakistan series ; and now they are dealing with - mostly minor - injuries as well as perhaps a little loss of confidence from this game. Certainly players on both sides were missing and it was just a practice match ; but it showed that (a) England still haven't a clue how to bowl to Steve Smith (b) when they lose too many early wickets the competent but perhaps not brilliant late order cannot hit sixes at will - they need a Buttler or a Stokes there in those last ten overs ; and (c) steady spin bowling on a pitch that isn't a complete road can smother their usual scoring rate
...no one except Buttler (who mainly slaughtered the pace bowlers)
scored at better than run a ball.

Not saying the wheels are coming off but perhaps a couple of nuts were loosened. Hope the niggles besetting a few players ease in the next few days.

Australia thrive on confidence and they will have gained a bit from this game .

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Post by guildfordbat on Sun 26 May 2019, 9:21 am

alfie wrote:I don't think anything should be assumed about this WC.  England are reasonably seen as favorites due to their record over the last year or two plus home ground advantage , and I would be shocked were they to miss the semi finals: but come those knock out matches , anything can happen.
I fancy the logical England Australia India and NZ to be those last four , but I guess even that is not a given. SA have some good players , if less than before , and Pakistan are ...well , Pakistan.

What have these warm up games actually proved so far ?

Well , one : England would probably have preferred not to play them . They were warm enough already after the Pakistan series ; and now they are dealing with - mostly minor - injuries as well as perhaps a little loss of confidence from this game.  Certainly players on both sides were missing and it was just a practice match ; but it showed that (a) England still haven't a clue how to bowl to Steve Smith (b) when they lose too many early wickets the competent but perhaps not brilliant late order cannot hit sixes at will - they need a Buttler or a Stokes there in those last ten overs ; and (c) steady spin bowling on a pitch that isn't a complete road can smother their usual scoring rate
...no one except Buttler (who mainly slaughtered the pace bowlers)
scored at better than run a ball.

Not saying the wheels are coming off but perhaps a couple of nuts were loosened.  Hope the niggles besetting a few players ease in the next few days.

Australia thrive on confidence and they will have gained a bit from this game .

Thanks, Alfie. Typically articulate and astute adding meat to the bones of my posts.

I was actually going to ask you folks who follow the world game more than me these days - what are South Africa like as an ODI team going into this tournament? My perception is that they have skill and experience but maybe past their best and lacking an all rounder. I see they are still persevering with Morris - he was a complete flop at Surrey. One player though I have seen recently and been impressed by is Markram - he was the mainstay of Hants' batting in this year's RL 50 and a very reliable performer.

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Post by Duty281 on Sun 26 May 2019, 10:04 am

Pal Joey wrote:What odds a Pakistan v Sri Lanka final I wonder?  Smile Duty?

NZ look good to me. Always the dark horse at recent world cups... or black horse in their case. This could be their time.

200/1 with the good people at Bet365!

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Post by Duty281 on Sun 26 May 2019, 10:08 am

guildfordbat wrote:Olly / Duty- I was really trying to make the point that there are several teams who could win this competition. We are undoubtedly and strongly in that mix. However, we are not alone - just maybe that needs to be kept in mind. Australia are another serious contender and I would guess they will be further encouraged by today's result, regardless of anyone missing from the England side.

I agree. I do make England favourites, yes, but I see Australia and India as having good claims to the title as well. South Africa/Pakistan/New Zealand, whilst I see them a level below the aforementioned three, could potentially win it as well, if their respective key players hit form at the opportune times.

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Post by Gooseberry on Sun 26 May 2019, 10:39 am

I agree with NZ and SA being in the "dark horses" group but where the hell are Pakistan suddenly getting credit from?
They've been awful in the last couple of months building on a consistent pattern of being poor. Aside from their top 3 they don't have a great deal going for them. I'd back West Indies as a team more able to pull off shock wins, but getting through the group stage would be a stretch for either.

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Post by Duty281 on Sun 26 May 2019, 10:52 am

I never write off Pakistan, just like I never write off the French in rugby!

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Post by Duty281 on Sun 26 May 2019, 11:43 am

Rain besetting today's warm-up games. Hopefully it won't be too much of a factor when the actual tournament starts...though I note Thursday's forecast for the opener isn't too great.

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Post by king_carlos on Sun 26 May 2019, 5:45 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/48398522

Interesting wee fact/stat in that Beeb article. Captioning the top photo:

"England have not beaten a Test-playing nation in a World Cup knockout match since 1992"

It also points out that of England's 18 World Cup wins since 1992 only 7 of them have come against Test-playing nations. With 9 round-robin matches coming England could come close to matching that number in the group stages.

Whilst the pre-tournament hype is getting tedious at this stage it is undeniable that how far England have come under Morgan's captaincy is really outstanding.

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Post by Duty281 on Sun 26 May 2019, 6:01 pm

Only played two knockout World Cup games since the end of the 1992 World Cup, in fairness, both against Sri Lanka, both comprehensive defeats. Probably highlights how dismal England have been at the group stages of previous World Cups. I highly recommend the 28 Days Data book, which is an excellent chronicle of England's (mostly miserable!) ODI exploits from 1992-2015.

And, yes, England have come really far in the last four years. It's a shame that the powers that be will destroy this after this tournament. A bit like how Clive Woodward's great England rugby side fell apart after 2003, only this time it seems a little more self-inflicted.

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Post by Gooseberry on Mon 27 May 2019, 7:37 am

What do you think the powers will do to destroy it?
Theres certainly a shift away from focus on 50 overs because of the Ashes and then the t20 world cup, and there will be retirements and resting meaning a new group of players having to step up short term so we might see a slip, but that's unavoidable. It's also important as the age profile of this team whilst at its peak now will be very old by the next world cup.
I guess nonsense like the 100 is a threat to what's been built, and they still need to do more to shake up the quality of the county game.
But is there anything specific you're thinking of that's going to ruin the legacy of this team?

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Post by Pal Joey on Mon 27 May 2019, 9:54 am

king_carlos wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/48398522

Interesting wee fact/stat in that Beeb article. Captioning the top photo:

"England have not beaten a Test-playing nation in a World Cup knockout match since 1992"

Duty281 wrote:I highly recommend the 28 Days Data book, which is an excellent chronicle of England's (mostly miserable!) ODI exploits from 1992-2015.

Makes you wonder what's the bloody point winning 5 world cups if this news has suddenly just come to light for you guys! Laugh

Think I'll pass on both, thanks.

I've been watching too many hourly highlights of '99, '03, 07... and caught the final few overs of '15 too.
Amazing how so many close shaves... bits of luck helped 'us' achieve the 27 match or was it 28? unbeaten run in WC matches.
I remember just about giving up at least a few times. Thought we were gone on several occasions. Some miracle escapes.

I just hope we see similar twists and turns this WC. May the best team win.


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Post by Duty281 on Mon 27 May 2019, 10:01 am

Gooseberry wrote:What do you think the powers will do to destroy it?
Theres certainly a shift away from focus on 50 overs because of the Ashes and then the t20 world cup, and there will be retirements and resting meaning a new group of players having to step up short term so we might see a slip, but that's unavoidable. It's also important as the age profile of this team whilst at its peak now will be very old by the next world cup.
I guess nonsense like the 100 is a threat to what's been built, and they still need to do more to shake up the quality of the county game.
But is there anything specific you're thinking of that's going to ruin the legacy of this team?

50 over cricket is going to be mostly ignored by the domestic powers while this blasted 'Hundred' takes precedent.

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 27 May 2019, 10:09 am

Final warm-up games today - Australia v Sri Lanka and England v Afghanistan. Mark Wood is apparently OK after Saturday's knock. England bowling first. I think Archer's going to get a bowl.

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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Mon 27 May 2019, 10:54 am

Pal Joey wrote:
I just hope we see similar twists and turns this WC. May the best team win.

As I will be out of the country during the latter stages of the World Cup, it will be less painful if your lot do win it. I'm back for the second half of the Ashes, they're the one I want to win the most

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Post by Pal Joey on Mon 27 May 2019, 11:38 am

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:
Pal Joey wrote:
I just hope we see similar twists and turns this WC. May the best team win.

As I will be out of the country during the latter stages of the World Cup, it will be less painful if your lot do win it. I'm back for the second half of the Ashes, they're the one I want to win the most

Me too. Already enough World Cups... more Urn needed. Very Happy
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Post by Good Golly I'm Olly on Mon 27 May 2019, 12:16 pm

Fair to say the Afghans aren’t covering themselves in glory here, despite it being a warm up game.

Suicidal would be a compliment to their running so far
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Post by Duty281 on Mon 27 May 2019, 12:17 pm

It's been a terrible batting performance.

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Post by Gooseberry on Mon 27 May 2019, 6:40 pm

An element of fear about how much they needed to get maybe?

And just to check are we back to hailing Archer as the greatest fast bowler sincethelastonewhowasbetter and England back as sure fire favourites?


In other news Australia also beat a rubbish side (without Smith and Warner)

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 27 May 2019, 7:43 pm

Yes, England are sure fire favourites. They're going to win the World Cup and they're going to win it in style and comfort.

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Post by msp83 on Tue 28 May 2019, 8:04 am

I started closely following Cricket World Cup from 1996. Since then, this has to be the least exciting build up as far as I am concerned. It is the changing nature of ODIs that is putting me off. ODIs have now become F-50. 50 overs of slogging on stupid roads of pitches with small ground and shorter boundaries. Sustained slogging requires a certain kind of skill of course, but it is absolutely borring to watch.
In recent times, English pitches have become complete highways, and a good game can only be produced if the overhead conditions help. I am told this is going to be a rather dry summer, so can't expect much there either.
If the world cup early rounds go anything like the recently concluded England-Pakistan series, don't think its worth the bother.

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Post by msp83 on Tue 28 May 2019, 8:07 am

Home side England going in as strong favorites and India, Australia, New Zealand, and yes the West Indies can really do well in the tournament.

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Post by Gooseberry on Tue 28 May 2019, 8:36 am

Just wait till you see the 100 MSP ....

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Post by Good Golly I'm Olly on Tue 28 May 2019, 8:39 am

Some decent value bets knocking about in the top run scorer market imo (Skybet paying each way for top 4 places)

Kohli is 9/1 favourite, Steve Smith at 16/1 both seem very decent shouts to me

Some outside shots - Shai hope at 33/1 and Tamim at 66/1. Both have excellent ODI records and previous success in England too
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Post by KP_fan on Tue 28 May 2019, 11:12 am

ICC Cricket World Cup - Page 3 Wi10

Look at the odds......top-5 are as mots of us would have picked and with daylight between top-3 and numbers 4 &5

My tip for a calculated gamble would be to bet on WI.......they are no where close to being favorites & yet their possibility of winning is not pure fantasy

and a whopping 19 times return Shocked
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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 11:38 am

I wouldn't touch the Windies with a barge pole at 18/1. They're an absolutely garbage team that have no chance whatsoever. They have one decent batsman (Hope), plus two talented sloggers (Hetmyer and Gayle), and that's it.

They recently played a tri-series with Ireland and Bangladesh (in Ireland) and got comprehensively outplayed by Bangladesh all three times. They'll finish 8th or 9th at this World Cup, but no higher, barring some improbable exploits.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 11:43 am

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:Some decent value bets knocking about in the top run scorer market imo (Skybet paying each way for top 4 places)

Kohli is 9/1 favourite, Steve Smith at 16/1 both seem very decent shouts to me

Some outside shots - Shai hope at 33/1 and Tamim at 66/1. Both have excellent ODI records and previous success in England too

Eoin Morgan also decently priced at 25/1, currently averaging 70 in ODI cricket this year, I believe. Rashid Khan a nice 16/1 to be the top wicket taker.

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Post by KP_fan on Tue 28 May 2019, 11:45 am

Duty281 wrote:I wouldn't touch the Windies with a barge pole at 18/1. They're an absolutely garbage team that have no chance whatsoever. They have one decent batsman (Hope), plus two talented sloggers (Hetmyer and Gayle), and that's it.

They recently played a tri-series with Ireland and Bangladesh (in Ireland) and got comprehensively outplayed by Bangladesh all three times. They'll finish 8th or 9th at this World Cup, but no higher, barring some improbable exploits.

my gambling money is on WI & if you fancy BD...then the returns on them are 81 times Shocked

anyone who bets must pick a calculated gamble side in this mega event...and that would be one of Lanka, BD and WI
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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 11:58 am

KP_fan wrote:
Duty281 wrote:I wouldn't touch the Windies with a barge pole at 18/1. They're an absolutely garbage team that have no chance whatsoever. They have one decent batsman (Hope), plus two talented sloggers (Hetmyer and Gayle), and that's it.

They recently played a tri-series with Ireland and Bangladesh (in Ireland) and got comprehensively outplayed by Bangladesh all three times. They'll finish 8th or 9th at this World Cup, but no higher, barring some improbable exploits.

my gambling money is on WI & if you fancy BD...then the returns on them are 81 times Shocked

anyone who bets must pick a calculated gamble side in this mega event...and that would be one of  Lanka, BD and WI

None of those teams have a chance! Neither do the Afghans, though I like them.

The group stage will leave nothing to chance. There will be no randomness. The best teams will get through because it's a relatively long stretch. The weak teams won't get lucky. There won't be a chance of a Kenya-style run to the semi-final.

Neither Bangladesh/Sri Lanka/Windies/Afghanistan have it in them to win five or six games from nine that they will need to make the semi-finals. England and India and Australia will all make the semi-finals. The other team will probably be New Zealand, maybe South Africa, possibly Pakistan.

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Post by KP_fan on Tue 28 May 2019, 12:13 pm

I am backing WI for an upset...if the pitches are the "Roads" that MSP refers to.....WI have an outside chance
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Post by Nathaniel Jacobs on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:24 pm

Hold up if the Windies are so rubbish did I imagine them drawing the recent ODI series against England? 

Windies have pedigree at winning these ICC events, IIRC they’ve got 3 already in their trophy cabinet. Wouldn’t be writing them off at all.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:31 pm

Nathaniel Jacobs wrote:Hold up if the Windies are so rubbish did I imagine them drawing the recent ODI series against England? 

Windies have pedigree at winning these ICC events, IIRC they’ve got 3 already in their trophy cabinet. Wouldn’t be writing them off at all.

More down to England being rubbish in that series, throwing away games, than the Windies actually being competent.

Yes, the Windies have won 3 ICC tournaments, but that's all ancient history now.

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Post by Nathaniel Jacobs on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:41 pm

Yeah a ‘slogger’ like Gayle scored 400+ runs. I’d like to know what is a ‘proper’ batsman when the so called ‘slogger’ Gayle has 10,000 ODI runs...

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Post by jimbohammers on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:44 pm

Id say West Indies have a chance as well. Gayle, Lewis, Hope, Bravo, Holder, Russell.. Certainly no mugs and i can see them getting big totals throughout the tournament. They seem to thrive off the underdog tag

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:45 pm

Gayle was once a proper batsman, but age has wearied him down to the level of a slogger.

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Post by JDizzle on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:46 pm

Yeah, not won a 50 over event since 2004 - I’m with Duty on this one. I can see them springing a few shocks in the group, but having the consistency to win enough games to make the semis.

My hot tip is Mustafizur for top wicket taker. He was going at 150-1 (although now into 50/60) in places which is silly for a bloke with an elite strike rate like he has.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:55 pm

The last time the West Indies actually won an ODI series was back in 2014 when they beat the formidable offering of Bangladesh. Mind you, they can't even do that these days! The last time the West Indies won an ODI series against a halfway-decent side was against New Zealand in 2012. The last time the West Indies won an away ODI series against a halfway-decent side was England in 2007.

To win the World Cup, West Indies are going to have to win six games from nine (or more) in the group stage, which would be a level of consistency they haven't shown for over a decade, before winning two knockout games against teams far better than them. Six from nine in the group stage? They've got a record of two wins out of nine against Bangladesh in ODIs in the last 18 months!

I think it's utterly ludicrous that they're being priced at 18/1. 1000/1 would be a fairer reflection. They haven't a hope or a prayer.

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Post by Nathaniel Jacobs on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:56 pm

South Africa veteran Dale Steyn ruled out of the matches against England and Bangladesh.

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Post by Nathaniel Jacobs on Tue 28 May 2019, 2:57 pm

Dhoni rolling back the years with a free flowing hundred. Haven’t seen the old boy smash it like this in many a year.

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Post by robbo277 on Tue 28 May 2019, 4:45 pm

The group stage will reward consistency and offer little for a team like Afghanistan who may bloody a couple of noses but probably won't challenge enough to get into the semis.

But how hard would it be for a low/mid-tier team to make it?

Looking at a team like West Indies, if they can beat the 3 teams ranked below them by the bookies(Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Afghanistan), 2 of the 3 in the next group up (New Zealand, South Africa and Pakistan) and 1 of the top 3, that's their 6 wins there.

6 wins to may also be a bit much. If England, India and Australia were all to comfortably top 3, then you have 7 teams playing for 1 place. Beating all 6 would pretty much guarantee you 4th and a semi-final berth, but you could easily end up with a scenario where 3 or 4 teams are all taking wins off each other and actually 5 becomes enough.

This is before you even consider the weather (been raining here today on and off). If a team like the West Indies were to under the pump against India and saved by the rain for a NR, and a team like New Zealand drop a point against Sri Lanka for the weather, West Indies could be effectively 2 points up on NZ over the same fixtures. That could be crucial in the final tallying up of scores - I'm sure Australia fans can point to their 2 washouts and DLS method loss to England in their Champions Trophy pool stage exit in 2017 to show how big a part weather can play.

So yes, the teams that show consistency, win 6 or 7 games will qualify relatively comfortably. But any team can get on a bit of a roll, get some luck with the weather and perhaps catch one of the favourites on an off day and might squeak through with 4 wins and a NR or 5 wins.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 28 May 2019, 5:31 pm

Good post. A team could possibly get through on five wins if their NRR was good. Four wins would require a heck of a lot of luck with the weather.

Either way, I can't see the Windies getting four wins at this tournament. Two or three most probably (v Sri Lanka and one or two upsets). The team most likely from the bottom tier of nations (Afg/Ban/Sri/WI) to do something memorable is the Afghans, because they have Rashid Khan and some other good spinners and some decent hitters.

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Post by VTR on Tue 28 May 2019, 6:30 pm

I'd struggle to make a case for the Windies but I think they could have an influence on the semi final lineup as they can beat anyone on their day. I know it's only a warm up but they've demolished New Zealand today, with poor Matt Henry returning the crazy looking 9-0-107-2. Luckily it's not an official ODI as that would surely be one of the worst set of figures ever recorded.

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Post by JDizzle on Tue 28 May 2019, 6:51 pm

VTR wrote:I'd struggle to make a case for the Windies but I think they could have an influence on the semi final lineup as they can beat anyone on their day. I know it's only a warm up but they've demolished New Zealand today, with poor Matt Henry returning the crazy looking 9-0-107-2. Luckily it's not an official ODI as that would surely be one of the worst set of figures ever recorded.

He’s no Mick Lewis! http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/records/102992.html

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Post by KP_fan on Tue 28 May 2019, 7:46 pm

WI pummeled NZ who are in most people's Top-5
Shocked Shocked
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Post by KP_fan on Tue 28 May 2019, 7:51 pm

robbo277 wrote:The group stage will reward consistency and offer little for a team like Afghanistan who may bloody a couple of noses but probably won't challenge enough to get into the semis.

But how hard would it be for a low/mid-tier team to make it?

Looking at a team like West Indies, if they can beat the 3 teams ranked below them by the bookies(Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Afghanistan), 2 of the 3 in the next group up (New Zealand, South Africa and Pakistan) and 1 of the top 3, that's their 6 wins there.

6 wins to may also be a bit much. If England, India and Australia were all to comfortably top 3, then you have 7 teams playing for 1 place. Beating all 6 would pretty much guarantee you 4th and a semi-final berth, but you could easily end up with a scenario where 3 or 4 teams are all taking wins off each other and actually 5 becomes enough.

This is before you even consider the weather (been raining here today on and off). If a team like the West Indies were to under the pump against India and saved by the rain for a NR, and a team like New Zealand drop a point against Sri Lanka for the weather, West Indies could be effectively 2 points up on NZ over the same fixtures. That could be crucial in the final tallying up of scores - I'm sure Australia fans can point to their 2 washouts and DLS method loss to England in their Champions Trophy pool stage exit in 2017 to show how big a part weather can play.

So yes, the teams that show consistency, win 6 or 7 games will qualify relatively comfortably. But any team can get on a bit of a roll, get some luck with the weather and perhaps catch one of the favourites on an off day and might squeak through with 4 wins and a NR or 5 wins.

How I look at it....except BD, SL, Afg......anyone is capable of beating anyone on a given day
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Post by KP_fan on Tue 28 May 2019, 8:12 pm

-1983, '87 and '96 have been upset wins by the underdogs...that's 3 out of 11 and that's a reasonably high percentage.
-another stat to note Aus has won 5 of the last 8 world-cups
-So statistically a very high probability that either Aus or an under-dog wins the world cup Smile


1975 West Indies 291–8 Australia 274 West Indies won by 17 runs
1979 West Indies 286–9 England 194 West Indies won by 92 runs
1983 India 183 West Indies 140 India won by 43 runs
1987 Australia 253–5 England 246–8 Australia won by 7 runs
1992 Pakistan 249–6 England 227 Pakistan won by 22 runs
1996 Sri Lanka 245–3 Australia 241 Sri Lanka won by 7 wickets
1999 Australia 133–2 Pakistan 132 Australia won by 8 wickets
2003 Australia 359–2 India 234 Australia won by 125 runs
2007 Australia 281–4 Sri Lanka 215–8 Australia won by 53 runs
2011 India 277–4 Sri Lanka 274–6 India won by 6 wickets
2015 Australia 186–3 New Zealand 183 Australia won by 7 wickets
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Post by VTR on Tue 28 May 2019, 9:12 pm

I can see Mick Lewis having his record taken off him in this World Cup, he might barely be in the top ten by the end of it!

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Post by msp83 on Tue 28 May 2019, 9:44 pm

The warm-up games are not really warming me up to the event. Too many bowlers getting smashed around easily. Boult swung the ball a bit against India and England found ways to lose wickets, but in general, its just the foundations of a stupid slogfest...

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Post by Good Golly I'm Olly on Tue 28 May 2019, 10:27 pm

msp83 wrote:The warm-up games are not really warming me up to the event. Too many bowlers getting smashed around easily. Boult swung the ball a bit against India and England found ways to lose wickets, but in general, its just the foundations of a stupid slogfest...

I would note msp a lot of the warm up games are being played on wickets off to the edges of squares (as obviously the main wickets are being prepared) thus making boundaries much shorter than they will be come the tournament itself

Except of course Trent bridge where the boundary is small wherever the pitch is!
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Post by Gooseberry on Wed 29 May 2019, 8:58 am

KP_fan wrote:WI pummeled NZ who are in most people's Top-5
Shocked Shocked

Yep and still are. I think West Indies are top in everyones " able to produce occasional brilliant performances" list, and also everyones aware that these warmups are just that so not too much should be read into them. The West Indies have been pretty awful since the last world cup, as their ranking shows (Well behind Bangladesh in 8th). But the England series showed that Gayle still has the ability to score big runs quickly, and the rise of players like Hope and Thomas is turning them into a credible threat to anyone. Its very much the cliche of the modern West Indies sides, when everyone turns up ( literally...theres a few big names like Gayle come back) and metaphorically ( quite often they might as well not be there) theres enough raw talent and mercurial players to produce individual match winning performances. Russells only played one ODI since the last world cup; combined with Gayle they added 90 runs off 47 balls. These returning players really do make a difference. So maybe they were underrated based on terrible results over a sustained period prior to the England series. There was a big question over some of these aging stars and how well they would integrate and how well motivated they would be.,
Still over the course of a tournament do we expect them to stay switched on and is there enough consistent quality in depth through the squad (Allen and Pooran? Nurse is pretty mediocre and I struggle to see how Bravo has managed over 100 caps) I doubt it. Theres also questions about how they hide the likes of Gayle in the field, setting well over 420 masks the problems they might have controlling opposition scoring. I feel they are the sort of team who could beat one of the top three then lose to Bangladesh a couple of days later. I still fancy them more than the likes of Pakistan (who really have been awful lately despite some quality batsmen) and Sri Lanka who have just slid and slid and havent had that sudden upturn we have seen from the west indies.
Id say they are number 6, so beating number 5 shouldn't be a great shock to anyone. And yeah getting to the knock outs isn't beyond them, but to then win two on the bounce against top sides as well? I dont buy that.

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