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The Trump Presidency

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Post by Pal Joey on Tue 09 Jul 2019, 11:50 am

First topic message reminder :

Galted wrote:
Pal Joey wrote:Just between us few on here... I have a feeling the Queen likes Trump.

Don't ask me to explain why but their body language seemed to be in a sort of comfortable harmony when they stood beside each other in June or whenever it was. And I think he quite likes all of that pomp and ceremony... as someone who likes being the centre of attention would.

He's a cross between a court jester and a village idiot so she would love him. Probably lets him run round the grounds with the corgis.

Laugh

Yes... and also the fact that he has just a touch of olde worlde charm (probably brutally drummed into him from the NY Military Academy) despite his apparently frightening unpredictability in this day and age.
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 12:30 pm

Wouldn't take any CNN poll seriously just like I wouldn't take the Network seriously....Fake news like Fox.

Famous for loaded surveys like Opinium over here that had ChangeUK on 18% when everyone else had them in single figures.

Harris, Rasmussen, Zogby, Consult,Trafalgar are more respectable.

Besides Trump was admitted the night of the 2nd...

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Post by dummy_half on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 12:43 pm

LP
If Trump isn't getting a healthy majority of elderly white voters, he's screwed. I can even see a situation where some of his white working class base don't bother to turn out because they don't want to vote for someone who is clearly losing (although he trailed Clinton in the polls, the margin was sufficiently close for him to have a credible chance with votes in the right places, which is exactly what happened in 2016)

If that poll is right, Biden wins all the east coast bar possibly South Carolina, all the West Coast, all the rust belt and Great Lakes states AND TEXAS. Would be an absolute wipeout on the Electoral College - Biden well over 400 EC votes to Trump just over 100. Not quite Reagan over Carter, but more lopsided that even Obama's wins.

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Post by dummy_half on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 1:20 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Wouldn't take any CNN poll seriously just like I wouldn't take the Network seriously....Fake news like Fox.

Famous for loaded surveys like Opinium over here that had ChangeUK on 18% when everyone else had them in single figures.

Harris, Rasmussen, Zogby, Consult,Trafalgar are more respectable.

Besides Trump was admitted the night of the 2nd...

538, whose main job is to assess the polling of others, rates Fox's polling as of high quality (graded A-), and with no obvious bias (unlike Fox News themselves). This assessment comes from an understanding of the poll methodology and sampling strategy.

Their rating for CNN/SSRS is less good, graded B/C for method, which is not much different from Rasmussen (graded C+, obvious Republican bias compared with average) and better than Trafalgar (rated C-).

Other national polls released today have Biden's lead at 11 or 12 %, with 53 or 54% of the vote share. Again, it's only polling and still a month away from the final voting (although early voting has started in some states, and obviously is much more prevalent than in previous elections, so some of Biden's advantage is secure) - even not allowing for health issues, you'd much rather be in Biden's position than Trump's at the moment. Trump needs a big moment or a big month (difficult when he has to quarantine for a week and a bit still) that reaches beyond his base support, or for Biden to fall flat on his face - none of which are looking likely at the moment.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 1:59 pm

Trump still marginally closer, on average, to Biden's lead than he was to Clinton's lead, at the same stage of the campaign, in the key battleground states.

The election will of course be mostly settled in the five key states - Arizona (11), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Florida (29).

But Trump will be attacking the soft Democrat-leading states as well -  Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20) and Nevada (6).

If Trump takes all five of those key states, he should be on 258 EC votes (just short of the 270 to win). He then only needs one of the two largest states from the second list to win the election, or a combination involving Wisconsin + NH/Nevada.

At the very least, I believe, Trump will need four of those key states, and one of those will have to be Florida. He could lose Arizona or Ohio or NC or Georgia, but offset it with at least two wins from the second list. Losing Ohio, for example, but winning the other four key states, would put Trump on 240. He'd then need Michigan + Pennsylvania, or one of those plus two smaller states.

(There's also the matter of the split votes in Maine and Nebraska. Two EC votes from those districts are in the 'toss-up category'. They could be very crucial. I have not factored those in to the above equation, so where I say Trump should be on 258, for instance, that's without counting these two. He could be on 260 in that scenario.)

So Biden just needs to grab Florida from the key states and then I can't see a realistic path back to the White House for Trump. Alternatively he could win two or more of the others from the key states, which also ought to be enough barring snookers. Of course, Biden doesn't actually need any of the key states, if he holds on to everything on the second list barring one of Nevada or NH (risky strategy).

In all five of the key states, Biden has a lead that is no greater than 3.5% from polling averages. In the five states from the second list, Biden has a lead that is no greater than 7% from polling averages. So all 10 are possible for Trump to take with 28 days to go. It's up for grabs.

(As an added note, Trump might be bridging the gap in Minnesota (10), so that could enter into consideration too. So the five states on the second list might become six.)

On the flip side, Trump only has small leads in Iowa (6) and Texas (38). He could, technically, lose Iowa and still win the election, but he'd need a further state from the second list mentioned earlier to offset it. If he loses Texas, the race would be over barring Trump taking 9/10 of the above mentioned states, which is nigh-on impossible. Trump also has leads in Missouri (10) and South Carolina (9) that Biden can overturn, but it would take a big Democrat effort. The rest of the 'red' states look pretty red and safe.

So it's a tremendously tight race that, with just four weeks to go, is anyone's. If Trump picks up momentum, and is helped by his opponent's errors, like last time he surely wins the race. If Biden can maintain composure and remain sure-footed over the next four weeks, it's in his hands.

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Post by dummy_half on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 2:46 pm

Duty
Ever the optimist.

Trump needs to win Pennsylvania to have a chance. Recent polls have Biden between +5 and +9.
Latest poll of Arizona is Biden +8.
Florida is being typically Florida, with two polls today, one showing even and the other Biden +6, so make of that what you will...
North Carolina has Biden ahead by roughly the expected margin of error of the polls
Ohio is absolutely a toss up.

Trump needs to win all of these. If not (and if the one he loses is Florida he's totally screwed), he has to pull one of the rust belt states that are polling more strongly for Biden.
It's not absolutely over yet, but Trump needs to do something he's failed to do since 2016, and that is mobilise people outside his base.

Oh, and don't expect a systematic polling error to favour Trump this time - any good pollster will have looked at 2016, seen that they under-sampled low education white males and adjusted their sampling or likely voter models to reflect that. If anything, if there is a systematic bias this time I would expect it to be the other way, as Trump's 2016 election owed quite a lot to people who hadn't voted reliably in the past (noting of course his victory came down to 70000 voters between Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) and I can see some of them not voting again if they don't feel that Trump has lived up to their expectations.

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Post by dummy_half on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 2:55 pm

Oh, and the other factor this year is that there are far fewer undecideds - it's much better to be polling 50-46 as a 4 point lead with 4% undecided / 3rd party, than 46-40 with a 6 point lead but 14% undecided / 3rd party.
2016 the undecideds broke strongly for Trump, especially in the rust belt states. The undecided numbers just aren't there this time to make the difference.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 3:07 pm

dummy_half wrote:Trump needs to do something he's failed to do since 2016, and that is mobilise people outside his base.

Has he ever really sought to do that, with any conviction at least? It seems to me his attitude towards anyone who doesn't support him is to dismiss them. Even if he made a pitch to them now, it would ring hollow. All politicians are 'us versus them' to an extent, but Trump has always seemed to think that he doesn't need 'them'.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 3:17 pm

dummy_half wrote:Duty
Ever the optimist.

Trump needs to win Pennsylvania to have a chance. Recent polls have Biden between +5 and +9.
Latest poll of Arizona is Biden +8.
Florida is being typically Florida, with two polls today, one showing even and the other Biden +6, so make of that what you will...
North Carolina has Biden ahead by roughly the expected margin of error of the polls
Ohio is absolutely a toss up.

Trump needs to win all of these. If not (and if the one he loses is Florida he's totally screwed), he has to pull one of the rust belt states that are polling more strongly for Biden.
It's not absolutely over yet, but Trump needs to do something he's failed to do since 2016, and that is mobilise people outside his base.

Oh, and don't expect a systematic polling error to favour Trump this time - any good pollster will have looked at 2016, seen that they under-sampled low education white males and adjusted their sampling or likely voter models to reflect that. If anything, if there is a systematic bias this time I would expect it to be the other way, as Trump's 2016 election owed quite a lot to people who hadn't voted reliably in the past (noting of course his victory came down to 70000 voters between Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) and I can see some of them not voting again if they don't feel that Trump has lived up to their expectations.

As explained, he does not have to win Pennsylvania to have a chance. The five key states + Michigan = Trump win. Or + Wisconsin and one of NH/Nevada = Trump win.

As also explained, the five key states have average polling leads of 3.5% or less for Biden, making them incredibly close (toss ups, if you will). The other five have average polling leads of between 5 and 7% which are solid, but far from insurmountable, which is why this is a close election race. A relatively minor boost in the polls for Trump, with 28 days and two debates to go, puts him back in the White House. I am not an 'optimist' as I am dispassionate about whoever wins.

Latest poll of Arizona is +8 but that's likely an outlier, with other polls this month and late last month putting it a lot closer.

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Post by dummy_half on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 4:24 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
dummy_half wrote:Trump needs to do something he's failed to do since 2016, and that is mobilise people outside his base.

Has he ever really sought to do that, with any conviction at least? It seems to me his attitude towards anyone who doesn't support him is to dismiss them. Even if he made a pitch to them now, it would ring hollow. All politicians are 'us versus them' to an extent, but Trump has always seemed to think that he doesn't need 'them'.

In 2016 there was a certain appeal to the 'Not Hilary' vote and to those who distrust politics and career politicians - these weren't really his base supporters, but those who maybe saw Trump as the lesser of two evils.

While I don't think Biden would be a good candidate against a normal Republican opponent, I think he is close to the perfect candidate for taking on Trump at this stage - there simply isn't stuff to cast him as potentially worse that Trump, or as being a left wing radical. Worst that's been found is that his son gained some questionable employment advantages because of the Biden name.

I think Trump's big problem this campaign is that he can't figure out why the stuff that appeared to work for him in 2016 as an outsider don't work for him outside his core supporters in 2020 after 4 years as the President. He doesn't seem to realise that the majority disapprove of his actions as President.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 4:33 pm

I think many Americans just want some kind of stability after four years of the Trump show. I've seen several people say they want Biden as president so that they can go back to not worrying about what the president is doing. Every day's a drama at the moment.

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Post by dummy_half on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 4:38 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I think many Americans just want some kind of stability after four years of the Trump show. I've seen several people say they want Biden as president so that they can go back to not worrying about what the president is doing. Every day's a drama at the moment.

MPBA - Make Politics Boring Again

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 5:47 pm

Trump still claiming the flu is more deadly than Covid.
Also trying to rush through vaccine before election day without following the standard safety protocols.
Because, you know, he never lies and he cares so much about the American people.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 06 Oct 2020, 8:59 pm

Ironic thing about all this is that Trump would have been re-elected without Covid 19.

Beating Biden and all the other contenders before February in all the polls because Standard of living had improved along with the Economy......More jobs.....and Presidents are very rarely removed after their first term.....

Adams, Hoover, Cleveland, Ford, Bush sr, Harrison, Taft, Carter, Buchanan, Pierce and then Polk (who didn't want two terms) are all I can think of out of 45 Elected Presidents.....There were others that died or were assassinated or finished terms off like Coolidge, Fillmore, Andy Johnson etc.... but generally Americans are loathe to get rid of incumbents....Especially with good Economies.

Of the one termers Cleveland, Hoover, Bush sr, Carter got nailed over the Economy.....Taft got nailed because Teddy Roosevelt hated him and ran as an independent....Pierce got nailed because like Ford he was a Moron......Harrison sandwiched the popular Cleveland who got beaten in one of the most corrupt Elections in History (Grover Cleveland is the only President to serve two terms non consecutively)....Dodgy goings on in polling stations especially in New York back in the days when New york was a marginal....Harrison won by less than 1% in quite a few States....

Cleveland won the popular vote...Harrison took the College...Bit like Clinton v Trump.

Cleveland won the WH back in 1892 because Harrison was too busy catering for the 1%..

Some useless information for you..You're welcome !!.. Wink  thumbsup

Problem for Trump is there are usually more floating voters than this...Too many have already made up their minds..

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 07 Oct 2020, 10:18 am

GMRS poll split between before Trump got virus and after..

Before..

Biden 46
Trump 41

After

Biden 55
Trump 34

Kind of surprised at that but nothing really surprises me much these days.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Wed 07 Oct 2020, 3:43 pm

dummy_half wrote:It's all just typical Trump - those that support him strongly will lap it up, those that are opposed to him will see him being a reckless amoral clown. As Truss mentioned a few posts ago, there really aren't many in between these two positions to win over or alienate (recent national polling has about 5-6% undecideds, with Biden at 50-51% and Trump around 43-44%*. Post debate / debacle but prior to the COVID diagnosis, Biden's lead was stretching slightly).

Of course Trump going back to the White House while still on his course of steroid treatment (noting that Dextramethasone is only an effective treatment against the dangerous runaway immune response to COVID-19, not a treatment for mild infection) is likely not that different in terms of facilities to the hospital anyway - he'll have round the clock care from the best available doctors. Worst thing that could happen to him, which is still a real possibility over the next few days, is a relapse requiring re-admission to the hospital or additional treeatment.

Of course you have to remember that even before his swerve into politics, Trump's career had been based on selling his name and image, something of no intrinsic value. He's just continuing the same approach as President, and (as with his business dealings) persuaded enough people that there is a value in what he says. Oh, and as a salesman, he's like one of those rubbish Apprentice candidates who is prepared to say anything to get the sale, regardless of the truth.

* Biden probably needs to win the national vote by at least 3-4% to be sure of an electoral college win, as he is likely to win California and NY, ad big population states with a lot of EC votes, by large margins, while Trump is likely to win Texas by a relatively small margin (Florida, as one of the other big states in terms of EV votes is as usual very close, marginally trending Biden but within the reasonable margin of error of the polls)
It's an interesting one, that. Dex is a powerful immunosuppressive (i.e. anti-inflammatory) drug. Would have thought it logical to only use that if immune system goes into overload later on in an infection. Using it early is likely to negatively affect the basic immune response to SARS2 I would have thought.
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Post by navyblueshorts on Wed 07 Oct 2020, 3:45 pm

dummy_half wrote:LP
Rather an outlier on the recent Biden by +6 to +10 range, and is only one poll. I think it more likely captures the post debate mood rather than Trump's recent idiocy (pointless limo ride in particular). Stil,l, good news if you want the US to revert to normality again.

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Think so?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/trump-senior-vote/index.html
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 08 Oct 2020, 2:22 am

Harris looks like she has aged ten years in six months..Her make up is poor...Reigning in her usually fiery self quite well making decent digs on Covid...Definite attempt to soften Harris...Pence has a cool and composed seen it all before presence and a good voice for these things...He's deflecting very well..

Certainly an up grade on last week...


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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 08 Oct 2020, 9:53 am

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Harris looks like she has aged ten years in six months..Her make up is poor...Reigning in her usually fiery self quite well making decent digs on Covid...Definite attempt to soften Harris...Pence has a cool and composed seen it all before presence and a good voice for these things...He's deflecting very well..

Certainly an up grade on last week...


Couldn't be worse than Trump's!

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Post by Mind the windows Tino. on Thu 08 Oct 2020, 12:34 pm

Apparently the second Presidential debate is going ahead and will be remote.

One would assume that it will split screen so I hope the moderator has the ability to mute them or it could be even more farcical than the last one.

Edit - Trump now saying he won't do a virtual debate and wants to place a whole load more people in danger of catching Covid do it in person. He feels fantastic....

He needs to do something. A couple of polls (don't follow them much so not sure if they are any good) I saw had him 11 points down in Florida, 12 down in Pennsylvania.

Mind the windows Tino.
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 08 Oct 2020, 3:06 pm

Pence won big on the right wing pollster cards around 70% and picked up 40 odd on CNN...

Which suggest he probably  shaded it and I think he did.  Harris was especially weak on The Supreme Court, Fracking and lost the Economy question...I imagine as a former prosecutor she was briefed to tone her act down.  She put in some good hits on Covid and Tangerine Man..

But....The juice is that last night was about Harris coming over as someone that could perform like a VP and a President in waiting..

I think she did that...Job done.

So no game changer.

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 08 Oct 2020, 3:42 pm

Trump obviously wants an in-person debate as he feels he can exert more pressure on Biden. By refusing to do the virtual debate, he's now putting pressure on whichever broadcaster it is. A compromise might be to delay the debate by a few days, and push the third debate back by a few days, and hold both in-person.

Agree that Trump has work to do on the campaign trail and that Covid, in more ways than one, may have scuppered him for the meantime. The Florida polls are generally around a 5% lead for Biden, the one that has him 11% up (and the one that has it level) appear to be outliers. Pennsylvania polls are all over the shop - Biden certainly has a lead, but how much? Three pollsters have it as between 4-5%, two have it as 11-12%.

And never really saw the point of any VP debate. The main takeaway from last night appears to be that a fly landed on Pence's hair. Wow, that's a game-changer.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 08 Oct 2020, 8:53 pm

Suspect it will be put back a week to the 22nd.

Big ratings for the Networks as the Town Hall debate is regarded as the blue riband.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon 12 Oct 2020, 11:24 am

4.5m have returned early votes apparently compared to 75,000 this time 4 years ago....and early figures suggest a 60/30 split for Biden where Trump was holding his own with Clinton last time.

Looks like a done deal....But I doubt it will be a landslide I expect Florida, Texas, Georgia and Ohio to go narrowly to Trump which is around 80 electoral votes along with Red Neck alley...Georgia is a strange one it should be a switcher but Voter suppression is an art form there..

My most humble prediction is...

Wisconsin...Colorado...Pennsylvania...Michigan..Iowa and Arizona turn blue..and we are in 300 v 238 territory.

A win is a win is a win is a win..Trump is toast, me art thou thinketh !!!

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Mon 12 Oct 2020, 12:59 pm

This is worth a read: https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-joe-biden-donald-trump-campaigns-904620e3b58a8abf75227848c8762396

“It’s not good,” said Alex Conant, a senior campaign adviser to Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “It’s been a long time since Donald Trump has had any good news, and when he does have good news, he manages to step on it.”

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 12 Oct 2020, 1:13 pm

Would be surprised if Trump pulled out Florida, Georgia and Ohio, but couldn't manage to win Iowa, though stranger things have happened.

Has been a few decent days for Trump in the polling. Leads posted in the key states of Georgia, Florida and Arizona, as well as in the 'soft red' state of Texas, though still plenty of work to do to overturn Democrat leads in Nevada, New Hampshire and Michigan, with just over 3 weeks to go.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon 12 Oct 2020, 2:27 pm

Demographics..But it's only a hunch I have..

Georgia and Florida both have substantial black populations to suppress.....A third of Georgia is black and Trump won by 5 points last time.

Closing down voting booths...Losing ballots etc..

Iowa is only 3% black...

With Ohio they have more non College educated voters than most other States..45% of Ohio is non College educated.

Trump does well with less educated voters.

Make of that what you will.

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Post by lostinwales on Tue 13 Oct 2020, 10:12 am

Saw a tweet that basically said the reason for his 'miraculous' recovery was that he only had a very mild case to start with and then they threw all the strongest medicines at him, the stuff they usually keep back for when there is nothing else they can do.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 13 Oct 2020, 10:45 am

In 2008 Clinton was losing New Hampshire to Obama in the polls when she started crying in a restaurant with potential voters.....Just happened to be filmed.  She carried New Hampshire by about 5 points.

Wouldn't surprise me if they thought by making Trump seem more stricken than he was there could be some electoral advantage pertaining to a sympathy vote.

Problem is Trump's whole calling card is that of an alpha male who slays everyone before him.  Still I expected an improvement in the polls for him however the same week he'd probably ruined his chances of exposing Biden by talking over him for 90 minutes.

Polls showed he lost support with Female voters if not Male..

Trump's main problem is if you look at close races like Gore v Bush, Clinton v Trump, Ford v Carter, Truman v Dewey, JFK v Tricky.......there are always more floaters than this Election.

US seems to have made up its mind.  

Not all bad news for the GOP though...If you are Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz you should be pleased because the US Economy won't recover by 2024 and blaming Trump for it won't wash...or by precedent it won't anyway.

Hoover tried to blame Coolidge against FDR, Cleveland one of the few Presidents to be kicked off the ballet for a second term by his own Party tried to blame Harrison for the recession in the 1890s.  Obama only squeaked past the lamentable Romney by blaming Bush etc...

It's a resonable argument to blame the last guy for the Country's woes but People generally vote with their wallets.

I expect the Republicans to take it back in 2024.

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Post by dummy_half on Wed 14 Oct 2020, 2:10 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:...

Problem is Trump's whole calling card is that of an alpha male who slays everyone before him.  Still I expected an improvement in the polls for him however the same week he'd probably ruined his chances of exposing Biden by talking over him for 90 minutes.

Polls showed he lost support with Female voters if not Male..

Trump's main problem is if you look at close races like Gore v Bush, Clinton v Trump, Ford v Carter, Truman v Dewey, JFK v Tricky.......there are always more floaters than this Election.

US seems to have made up its mind.  

Not all bad news for the GOP though...If you are Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz you should be pleased because the US Economy won't recover by 2024 and blaming Trump for it won't wash...or by precedent it won't anyway.

...

I expect the Republicans to take it back in 2024.

Trump's main problem is himself - self-inflicted wounds, like firstly trying to portray Biden as senile and then just talking all over him in the debate so you couldn't see it for yourself. Biden did make a few mistakes and verbal stumbles (nothing particularly out of character though), but these were lost in the narrative of the bad behaviour. And then getting Covid at a super-spreader event at the White House, while wilfully ignoring the guidance from the medical experts regarding masks and social distancing...

As for 2024, it depends on what candidate the Republicans put forward, and that is to some extent dependent on how badly Trump is defeated. A narrow(ish) Biden victory and Trump might consider running again or one of his sons, and they might still not be electable. If the Reps do come back to a somewhat more traditional position and nominate the likes of Cruz or Rubio, I can see them having a good chance unless the Dems do an unusually good job over the next 3 years*

* Because the election run-up is so long...
Side note - Current prediction is that the Dems will likely win the Presidency and the House, but the Senate is a much closer call. The 2022 Senate elections should favour the Democrats as there are more 'marginal' seats held by Republicans up for the vote, so there's a decent chance of the Democrats actually holding all the (elected) levers of power for either 2 or all 4 years of this Presidential cycle. Should give them the opportunity to actually achieve something, rather than being hamstrung by an opposition-controlled House or Senate.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Wed 14 Oct 2020, 2:28 pm

The problem for Cruz and Rubio is that, like almost every other prominent Republican I can think of, they've given themselves over totally to Trumpism. Nothing has been enough for them to raise more than weak words of 'concern'. How any of them expect to wash their hands of all this is beyond me. They can't say, 'oh, but that was Trump, not us,' when they've reshaped the party to match his every whim. They didn't even bother having a platform for this year's convention, for crying out loud.

Of course, it's possible that Trumpism is the way to go and all these polls are wrong.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Wed 14 Oct 2020, 5:11 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:The problem for Cruz and Rubio is that, like almost every other prominent Republican I can think of, they've given themselves over totally to Trumpism. Nothing has been enough for them to raise more than weak words of 'concern'. How any of them expect to wash their hands of all this is beyond me. They can't say, 'oh, but that was Trump, not us,' when they've reshaped the party to match his every whim. They didn't even bother having a platform for this year's convention, for crying out loud.

Of course, it's possible that Trumpism is the way to go and all these polls are wrong.
The current GOP must be the most spineless it's ever been. A complete embarrassment. If not spineless, then scum; power at any cost. What a shower.
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Wed 14 Oct 2020, 5:17 pm

'Can't shake the devil's hand and say you're only kidding.'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFGQdvYIJ0M

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 16 Oct 2020, 1:38 am

Fair play to Biden he's nailing this Town Hall..Someone must have pumped steroids into him...A few stutters but nothing to worry anybody floating.

Trump arguing with a pro Biden presenter on the other Town Hall...Shame they have to set Trump up...

Biden doesn't need the help..Been impressive...'So far'

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 16 Oct 2020, 2:04 pm

Yougov...USA

32% respondents watched Biden...29% Trump.

Did Biden perform well ??
Yes 62%
No..17%

Did Trump perform well ??
Yes 50%
No..22%

Great poll for Biden but equally Trump has steadied his ship.

Too much ground to make up though and early voting has hit the 17m mark.

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 16 Oct 2020, 11:36 pm

I thought Trump did well on the Town Hall appearance. I saw one of his rallies earlier - he looks at peak energy and performance so he's either made a brilliant recovery, or he's high as anything on a bunch of steroids. Whatever it is, it's working for now.

Meanwhile Trump's presidential opponent is having to put out a few fires regarding some e-mails and an FBI investigation. Very like 2016. Although this all concerns said candidate's son, not the candidate themselves.

Trump has a tiny bit of momentum in the polls, but needs a heck of a lot more to overturn Biden's likely lead at this stage with two and a bit weeks to go.

If Trump loses, I do think he'll run again and aim to emulate Grover Cleveland. If Trump wins, I'm not entirely convinced he won't try to run again!

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Sat 17 Oct 2020, 7:54 am

Always an idea to look for where candidates are going to look for signs..

Worrying sign for Trump is he went to Georgia yesterday which lends to a realistic chance of a landslide if that goes.

Then again Biden doesn't often leave his bunker these days and felt the need to head to Michigan where he has supposed double digit leads. So the internal polling there is obviously not matching the polling Companies scores...

Biden has supposed closer races in Iowa, Georgia, Florida,Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Strange he needs to go to Michigan.


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Post by Duty281 on Sat 17 Oct 2020, 2:30 pm

Yes, agree with that.

A poll yesterday showed Trump in the lead in Michigan; though that's very likely to be an outlier, it might be the start of a much-needed trend for Trump.

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Post by No name Bertie on Sun 18 Oct 2020, 8:41 pm

Does anyone watch the BBC coverage of the Presidential Race? Would you say their coverage was neutral and associated with journalistic integrity?

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Mon 19 Oct 2020, 10:39 am

Duty281 wrote:I thought Trump did well on the Town Hall appearance. I saw one of his rallies earlier - he looks at peak energy and performance so he's either made a brilliant recovery, or he's high as anything on a bunch of steroids. Whatever it is, it's working for now.

Meanwhile Trump's presidential opponent is having to put out a few fires regarding some e-mails and an FBI investigation. Very like 2016. Although this all concerns said candidate's son, not the candidate themselves.

Trump has a tiny bit of momentum in the polls, but needs a heck of a lot more to overturn Biden's likely lead at this stage with two and a bit weeks to go.

If Trump loses, I do think he'll run again and aim to emulate Grover Cleveland. If Trump wins, I'm not entirely convinced he won't try to run again!

There seems to be a lot of doubt over the credibility of that whole thing.

'Coming late in a heated presidential campaign, the article suggested that Joseph R. Biden Jr. had used his position to enrich his son Hunter when he was vice president. The [New York] Post based the story on photos and documents the paper said it had taken from the hard drive of a laptop purportedly belonging to Hunter Biden.

'Many Post staff members questioned whether the paper had done enough to verify the authenticity of the hard drive’s contents, said five people with knowledge of the tabloid’s inner workings. Staff members also had concerns about the reliability of its sources and its timing, the people said.

'The article named two sources: Stephen K. Bannon, the former adviser to President Trump now facing federal fraud charges, who was said to have made the paper aware of the hard drive last month; and Rudolph W. Giuliani, the president’s personal lawyer, who was said to have given the paper “a copy” of the hard drive on Oct. 11.

'Mr. Giuliani said he chose The Post because “either nobody else would take it, or if they took it, they would spend all the time they could to try to contradict it before they put it out.”'

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/18/business/media/new-york-post-hunter-biden.html?searchResultPosition=3

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Mon 19 Oct 2020, 10:51 am

Additionally:

'U.S. intelligence agencies warned the White House last year that President Trump’s personal lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani was the target of an influence operation by Russian intelligence, according to four former officials familiar with the matter.

'The warnings were based on multiple sources, including intercepted communications, that showed Giuliani was interacting with people tied to Russian intelligence during a December 2019 trip to Ukraine, where he was gathering information that he thought would expose corrupt acts by former vice president Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

'The intelligence raised concerns that Giuliani was being used to feed Russian misinformation to the president, the former officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information and conversations.

'Officials’ warnings about Giuliani underscore the concern in the U.S. intelligence community that Russia not only is seeking to reprise the disinformation campaign it waged in 2016, but also may now be aided, unwittingly or otherwise, by individuals close to the president.'

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/giuliani-biden-ukraine-russian-disinformation/2020/10/15/43158900-0ef5-11eb-b1e8-16b59b92b36d_story.html

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Post by No name Bertie on Mon 19 Oct 2020, 12:28 pm

Can people pinpoint when they became anti-Trump - approximate date and event?

Most of what I read here is "operational" - there doesn't seem to be any real discussion going on.  It all seems to be about getting Donald Trump out yet none of you are Americans (?).  Trussman I think was born in the US but now is a British citizen (?) - that is at least what I have gathered from reading his comments in the boxing section and maybe here and there.

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Post by dummy_half on Mon 19 Oct 2020, 12:50 pm

NNB
Trump has always been a boorish oaf, who had the good fortune to be born into money. However, the point where it became obvious he was unsuited to being the President of the US (at latest, ignoring some of his behaviour during the Republican Primaries of 2016) was during the debates with Hillary Clinton. Not so much the lack of policy or detail, as he was playing on being a rabble-rousing outsider, but more his manner and mannerisms, in particular where he would lurk just behind Clinton while she was attempting to answer.

After that, his ability to say things that were clearly wrong on their face (e.g. best attended inauguration EVAH..., that he only lost the popular vote because of votes from illegal immigrants etc). Then again, I hate pushy salesmen, and that is essentially all Trump is - prepared to say anything to pamper his ego and to make the sale.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 20 Oct 2020, 10:02 am

Couple of pollsters putting Trump ahead in Ohio and level in Florida..

I expect Trump to take these two..

Why Biden headed off to Michigan...While he leads in Penn, Wisconsin, Michigan he's in the White house.

Ohio and Florida are viewed as bonuses should he win.

Biden is playing defence.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 20 Oct 2020, 10:40 am

Trump's strategy of calling Dr Fauci a 'disaster', and calling a journalist a 'criminal' for not reporting the Hunter Biden laptop story, is... interesting.

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Post by dummy_half on Tue 20 Oct 2020, 12:10 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Couple of pollsters putting Trump ahead in Ohio and level in Florida..

I expect Trump to take these two..

Why Biden headed off to Michigan...While he leads in Penn, Wisconsin, Michigan he's in the White house.

Ohio and Florida are viewed as bonuses should he win.

Biden is playing defence.

Ohio is too close to call in the polls - 538 have the poll tracking average as Trump ahead 0.3%, which obviously is way inside the margin of error, however there have been plenty of polls with Trump ahead by a couple of points or so. I wouldn't put money either way there, although Trump is just favourite.

Florida polls generally favour Biden, with him up on the tracking average by 4%. The Trafalgar poll showing Trump up 2 is an outlier, as the next best of the last month has him even and most have him down a few points. All just about within the margins of error, but you'd rather be in Biden's shoes than Trump's. Of course, it's Florida and it is probably the least predictable state...

It does look as though the gap has at least stopped widening, which it did after the first debate and Trump's Covid diagnosis, and may be slightly closing (check Pennsylvania's recent polling), but Biden is on average 10 points up nationally and polling over 50% support.

Oh, and if Biden's playing defence, so is Trump, as he's been off to Texas and Georgia in the last few days, as well as Florida.

Also have to factor in the early voting, which (obviously) is way up on normal, and likely dominated by Dem voters (after Trump's opposition to postal and other early votes). What is less obvious is whether this will mean turn out overall is higher*, and whether it favours either party.

* It's pretty widely accepted that a high turn out would favour the Democrats

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 20 Oct 2020, 12:12 pm

The lack of interest in a kid with no qualifications getting 3 million from the Ukraine while his Daddy is VP is truly deplorable.

If you are happy corruption should be ignored because you don't like Trump it isn't a good look.

Journalism has died both here and in the US..

A lifelong anti racist was painted a racist in the last UK GE and a lifelong racist and misogynist got off scot free.

Amazingly Labour's Anti Semitism problem has disappeared over night.

Who would have guessed that !!!.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 20 Oct 2020, 12:37 pm

No name Bertie wrote:Can people pinpoint when they became anti-Trump - approximate date and event?

Most of what I read here is "operational" - there doesn't seem to be any real discussion going on.  It all seems to be about getting Donald Trump out yet none of you are Americans (?).  Trussman I think was born in the US but now is a British citizen (?) - that is at least what I have gathered from reading his comments in the boxing section and maybe here and there.
When I was born. Feb 1966. At that point, somehow, I became aware that there was an evil Oompa Loompa who'd one day become POTUS, demean the Office and cause all sorts of damage to supposed international friends of the U.S.A.
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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 20 Oct 2020, 12:47 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The lack of interest in a kid with no qualifications getting 3 million from the Ukraine while his Daddy is VP is truly deplorable.

If you are happy corruption should be ignored because you don't like Trump it isn't a good look.

Journalism has died both here and in the US..

A lifelong anti racist was painted a racist in the last UK GE and a lifelong racist and misogynist got off scot free.

Amazingly Labour's Anti Semitism problem has disappeared over night.

Who would have guessed that !!!.
Rubbish. Coincidence is not evidence. If HB had won the PowerBall you'd presumably have said that was corrupt as dad was VP? Perhaps, just perhaps, the apparent lack of interest is because they've done some preliminary investigations and it's clear there's nothing to see here? Who knows? Even if HB was given a position due to daddy's position, who's to say that daddy had anything to do w/ it? Perhaps Burisma thought employing HB was a way to curry influence w/ JB? Doesn't mean it's anything other than them p!ssing money away and no suggestion JB has done anything untoward.

As for Labour's alleged anti-Semitism, perhaps you should take note of those of Jewish origin within the party who took offence at what was going on? I'm not sure I'd suggest Corbyn is racist, but his (mis)management of that issue was utterly stupid.

I'll give you the essentially free pass for Johnson, but I would suggest you're simplifying racism. Johnson was a journalist trying to sell copy. Do his actions as, say, London Mayor or PM, match those words?
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Post by dummy_half on Tue 20 Oct 2020, 1:12 pm

Truss

The Hunter Biden story just doesn't smell right, at least as written in the NY Post (as Navy says, there probably is a thing about HB gaining a lucrative position with a foreign company because of who his father is or was at the time, but that's not a scandal to effect the election as it doesn't touch on Joe Biden or his actions).

The story is that Hunter Biden dropped a broken laptop at a small town strip mall repair shop (somewhere nowhere near where he lived or worked, and never used before or since) and never came back to collect it. The owner of said repair shop starts searching the computer e-mails and finds something about a proposed meeting between HB's Ukrainian employer and JB as VPOTUS, and passes said information to Steve Bannon, who then passes it to Rudy Guliani and ultimately (over a year later) the story appears in the NY Post. The credibility of this chain of custody is beyond doubtful.

Oh, and even if HB did try to arrange such a meeting, there is no evidence it actually took place or had any effect on US policy or JBs actions.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 20 Oct 2020, 1:15 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Spoiler:
Trump still marginally closer, on average, to Biden's lead than he was to Clinton's lead, at the same stage of the campaign, in the key battleground states.

The election will of course be mostly settled in the five key states - Arizona (11), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Florida (29).

But Trump will be attacking the soft Democrat-leading states as well -  Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20) and Nevada (6).

If Trump takes all five of those key states, he should be on 258 EC votes (just short of the 270 to win). He then only needs one of the two largest states from the second list to win the election, or a combination involving Wisconsin + NH/Nevada.

At the very least, I believe, Trump will need four of those key states, and one of those will have to be Florida. He could lose Arizona or Ohio or NC or Georgia, but offset it with at least two wins from the second list. Losing Ohio, for example, but winning the other four key states, would put Trump on 240. He'd then need Michigan + Pennsylvania, or one of those plus two smaller states.

(There's also the matter of the split votes in Maine and Nebraska. Two EC votes from those districts are in the 'toss-up category'. They could be very crucial. I have not factored those in to the above equation, so where I say Trump should be on 258, for instance, that's without counting these two. He could be on 260 in that scenario.)

So Biden just needs to grab Florida from the key states and then I can't see a realistic path back to the White House for Trump. Alternatively he could win two or more of the others from the key states, which also ought to be enough barring snookers. Of course, Biden doesn't actually need any of the key states, if he holds on to everything on the second list barring one of Nevada or NH (risky strategy).

In all five of the key states, Biden has a lead that is no greater than 3.5% from polling averages. In the five states from the second list, Biden has a lead that is no greater than 7% from polling averages. So all 10 are possible for Trump to take with 28 days to go. It's up for grabs.

(As an added note, Trump might be bridging the gap in Minnesota (10), so that could enter into consideration too. So the five states on the second list might become six.)

On the flip side, Trump only has small leads in Iowa (6) and Texas (38). He could, technically, lose Iowa and still win the election, but he'd need a further state from the second list mentioned earlier to offset it. If he loses Texas, the race would be over barring Trump taking 9/10 of the above mentioned states, which is nigh-on impossible. Trump also has leads in Missouri (10) and South Carolina (9) that Biden can overturn, but it would take a big Democrat effort. The rest of the 'red' states look pretty red and safe.

So it's a tremendously tight race that, with just four weeks to go, is anyone's. If Trump picks up momentum, and is helped by his opponent's errors, like last time he surely wins the race. If Biden can maintain composure and remain sure-footed over the next four weeks, it's in his hands
.

So I posted this two weeks ago. The bad news for Trump since then, polling-wise:

1) Iowa has moved from a 'soft red' lead to a toss-up state, meaning the 'five key states' have become six.
2) Arizona (key state) appears to be stable for Biden, presently.
3) Barring one outlier poll, Biden has a stable lead in Michigan (soft blue state).
4) New Hampshire looks to be all sewn up for Biden, moving from 'soft blue' to 'safe blue'.
5) Nevada (soft blue) is holding steady for the Democrats, but still not insurmountable for the Republicans.
6) Texas (soft red) is still within range for Biden to nick.

However, the good news for Trump in the last two weeks:

1) He's overturned the Biden lead in Ohio (key state) and currently has an average polling lead. A small one, yes, but the trend is going the Republican way in this state.
2) He's drastically cut the Biden lead in Georgia (key state) and only has a narrow deficit, if that. Four of the last seven polls in this state are showing leads for Trump.
3) Similar story in Florida (key state). Biden's lead has been cut, the polls are trending towards Trump, but no consistent leads for the Republicans as yet.
4) The gap appears to be narrowed in North Carolina (key state), though it's still a narrow Biden lead it is trending towards the Republicans.
5) In Wisconsin (soft blue), Biden's lead is being narrowly eroded. Though probably too narrowly to flip it red.
6) In Pennsylvania (soft blue), Biden's lead has been cut in half. No leads for Trump in this state yet, but if the trend continues it won't be too long before we see that.
7) Minnesota is a 'soft blue' state, in all probability, not a guaranteed one for Biden. Still a lack of polling here.

So a tight race that's getting tighter with two weeks left. In football terms, you might say Trump's a goal down with fifteen minutes to play.

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