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The Trump Presidency

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Post by Pal Joey on Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:50 pm

First topic message reminder :

Galted wrote:
Pal Joey wrote:Just between us few on here... I have a feeling the Queen likes Trump.

Don't ask me to explain why but their body language seemed to be in a sort of comfortable harmony when they stood beside each other in June or whenever it was. And I think he quite likes all of that pomp and ceremony... as someone who likes being the centre of attention would.

He's a cross between a court jester and a village idiot so she would love him. Probably lets him run round the grounds with the corgis.

Laugh

Yes... and also the fact that he has just a touch of olde worlde charm (probably brutally drummed into him from the NY Military Academy) despite his apparently frightening unpredictability in this day and age.
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:21 pm

Des Moines Register poll..

Iowa
Trump 48
Biden..41

They were level a couple of weeks ago.....White undecideds breaking for Trump in the Hawkeye State.

However not enough white undecideds in other marginals one would think...

But a little food for thought.

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Post by Duty281 on Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:19 pm

Two other polls have also come out in Iowa forecasting Trump leads. Seems pretty secure for him. Couple in Florida going for him as well. Michigan and Pennsylvania being dragged ever closer.

And the same problems cropping up with the polling v early vote statistics.

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Post by Duty281 on Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:45 pm

Polling group Emerson finding Trump two points behind in the state of Arizona...worryingly for Biden, they also find Trump only two points behind in the state of Nevada. One other poll has Trump 2 down in Nevada, two others have him six down.

Nevada was well down the list in the 13 battleground states that will decide this election. If you imagine Texas is 1st on the list, the one Trump is most likely to win, and New Hampshire is 13th, the least likely, then Nevada was around 11th or 12th.

So if the polling trend is correct to say Trump has a decent chance in Nevada, that spells real concern for Biden. Also highlights how well Trump has tightened the race and garnered momentum over the past 3 weeks.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:47 pm

Clinton won Nevada by 2 points in 2016...Trump had the same 7 point lead in Iowa on the Dessy poll in 2016.

Problem is Biden has a much greater lead in the mail votes and more have voted.

Though you can expect at least 50,000 ballots to get destroyed for various reasons on the count in swing states...Voter suppression will come into play.

But for Trump he isn't close enough for it to help him win.

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:56 pm

I'm not quite sure how a country in which voter suppression is generally accepted can be considered a great democracy.

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Post by alfie on Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:17 am

Quite fascinating reading this thread... seems to me that if Duty is correct in his analysis and this is headed for another Trump come from behind win then all the polling businesses might as well give up and just have him predict any future election results Smile

In all seriousness : I do not profess to have any deep insight into the American political system , and can accept that media outlets tend to over-simplify polling results ; but I still find it hard to reconcile the calculations Duty is putting up with all the information I am receiving from other sources. Guess we will find out in a few days !

My own uneducated feeling is that the weight of evidence suggests that Biden will win ; either comfortably , if early polling holds true , or rather more narrowly if the late Red Wave eventuates. But obviously if a couple of "close" contests go Trump's way an upset is not impossible. In the event of a close run thing I imagine Pennsylvania will decide the matter - a conclusion with which both camps seem to concur judging from late appearance schedules...

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:15 am

Bottom line is Clinton lost by a whisker and most concede Biden is more popular...

Covid deaths and job losses..

Give it six months and Harris will be President.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:17 pm

New Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania:

Biden 51%, Trump 44% (high turnout model)

Biden 50%, Trump 45% (low turnout model)

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Post by navyblueshorts on Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:25 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Bottom line is Clinton lost by a whisker and most concede Biden is more popular...

Covid deaths and job losses..

Give it six months and Harris will be President.
A little absurd, don't you think? I can see Biden only running this time and giving Harris the nod for next time, but the idea of him simply standing aside (or losing his marbles) by Summer 2021 is just daft.
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Post by Duty281 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:37 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:New Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania:

Biden 51%, Trump 44% (high turnout model)

Biden 50%, Trump 45% (low turnout model)

Another gain for Trump then. Previous Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania had Biden leading by 11 on the high turnout model and 8 on the low turnout model.

The poll says that 58% of Democrat registered voters are voting early, while 84% of Republican voters are coming out to vote on the day, with two-thirds total left to vote. If that's correct, it's difficult to see how Biden wins here.

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Post by Duty281 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:40 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Bottom line is Clinton lost by a whisker and most concede Biden is more popular...

Covid deaths and job losses..

Give it six months and Harris will be President.
A little absurd, don't you think? I can see Biden only running this time and giving Harris the nod for next time, but the idea of him simply standing aside (or losing his marbles) by Summer 2021 is just daft.

He lost his marbles a long time ago. The other day he claimed he was running against 'George'. If he does win, he'll be passing the baton over to Kamala very quickly.

For every criticism of Trump, and there's many valid ones, at least you can be confident he knows what day of the week it is.

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Post by Pr4wn on Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:41 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Bottom line is Clinton lost by a whisker and most concede Biden is more popular...

Covid deaths and job losses..

Give it six months and Harris will be President.

Between this and the "laptop" BS you're quickly becoming V2's very own Rudy Giulinani.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:17 pm

Pr4wn wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Bottom line is Clinton lost by a whisker and most concede Biden is more popular...

Covid deaths and job losses..

Give it six months and Harris will be President.

Between this and the "laptop" BS you're quickly becoming V2's very own Rudy Giulinani.

Anything you say..Bless you.

Moving on..

Rumours of Amazon CEO Bezos putting in a bid for CNN...

Seems more to it than a Trump planted bit of disinformation on the eve of the Election.

Wouldn't be hard to improve on CNN's audience figures....But this wouldn't be a good move.


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Post by navyblueshorts on Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:29 pm

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Bottom line is Clinton lost by a whisker and most concede Biden is more popular...

Covid deaths and job losses..

Give it six months and Harris will be President.
A little absurd, don't you think? I can see Biden only running this time and giving Harris the nod for next time, but the idea of him simply standing aside (or losing his marbles) by Summer 2021 is just daft.

He lost his marbles a long time ago. The other day he claimed he was running against 'George'. If he does win, he'll be passing the baton over to Kamala very quickly.

For every criticism of Trump, and there's many valid ones, at least you can be confident he knows what day of the week it is.
No, he didn't. He was talking to an interviewer called 'George'. Actually, I wouldn't trust Trump to know which way to sit on a toilet seat.
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Post by Duty281 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:00 pm

alfie wrote:Quite fascinating  reading this thread...  seems to me that if Duty is correct in his analysis and this is headed for another Trump come from behind win then all the polling businesses might as well give up and just have him predict any future election results Smile

In all seriousness :  I do not profess to have any deep insight into the American political system , and can accept that media outlets tend to over-simplify polling results ; but I still find it hard to reconcile the calculations Duty is putting up with all the information I am receiving from other sources.  Guess we will find out in a few days !

My own uneducated feeling is that the weight of evidence suggests that Biden will win ; either comfortably , if early polling holds true , or rather more narrowly if the late Red Wave eventuates. But obviously if a couple of "close" contests go Trump's way an upset is not impossible. In the event of a close run thing I imagine Pennsylvania will decide the matter - a conclusion with which both camps seem to concur judging from late appearance schedules...

Well we'll see how it goes, not long to wait*. I make Trump a 60-40 favourite as things stand, so certainly wouldn't be shocked to see Biden win, but I'll wait for the final avalanche of polls before coming up with a final assessment.

*Hopefully it doesn't drag on for a month like Bush/Gore. Could get real ugly if it does.

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Post by Duty281 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:01 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Bottom line is Clinton lost by a whisker and most concede Biden is more popular...

Covid deaths and job losses..

Give it six months and Harris will be President.
A little absurd, don't you think? I can see Biden only running this time and giving Harris the nod for next time, but the idea of him simply standing aside (or losing his marbles) by Summer 2021 is just daft.

He lost his marbles a long time ago. The other day he claimed he was running against 'George'. If he does win, he'll be passing the baton over to Kamala very quickly.

For every criticism of Trump, and there's many valid ones, at least you can be confident he knows what day of the week it is.
No, he didn't. He was talking to an interviewer called 'George'. Actually, I wouldn't trust Trump to know which way to sit on a toilet seat.

"Four more years of George."

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:07 pm

He called Trump...George. His Wife had to correct him.

Trafalgar..

Penn
Trump 48
Biden 46

First poll I have seen with Trump ahead there....

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Post by navyblueshorts on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:35 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:He called Trump...George. His Wife had to correct him.

Trafalgar..

Penn
Trump 48
Biden 46

First poll I have seen with Trump ahead there....
Was he, or was he not, being interviewed by a man called 'George'? Easy question; let's see if you can answer it....

Even you, despite having obviously swallowed the Trump line re. Biden's mental faculties, might consider that the name of George Lopez hosting that interview might complicate the conclusion re. whether Biden confused Trump w, say, George W. Bush. Perhaps have a look at some of Trump's nonsense, spouted on a daily basis, by comparison #Covfeve ?

Still, better to have a sociopath and utter ****wit re-elected for a second term I guess. As I said before, Trump gets re-elected and I suggest the rest of the World just ignore/obfuscate re. the USA for 4 years.
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Post by Duty281 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:56 pm

As I pointed out last week, Trump recorded a lead in Pennsylvania last Tuesday or Monday. He's had two poll leads recorded there today, compared to three against. The RCP average in that state continues to show a downward spiral for Biden: 7% lead at one point in October, now down to below 3%.

NBC/Marist, usually recording results that seem slightly too heavily skewed towards Biden, have Arizona at a tie.

IBD/TIPP have been tracking the national polling regularly over the past couple of weeks. They've consistently shown Biden to have a 5-7% lead nationally, that's now down to a 3% lead in their poll today (49-46) as Trump extends his support amongst Black and Hispanic voters, which I think is in the margin of error.

Biden must be very grateful the election's tomorrow, as he's still got a decent chance of winning. One or two more weeks of campaigning would have sunk him completely.

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Post by Duty281 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:45 pm

Election Day is tomorrow, here's when to expect the results in the 13 battleground states (all GMT times relate to early Wednesday morning):

1) Texas - 02:00 GMT close of polls. Most likely the result will be known during the night, however absentee ballots can arrive as late as Wednesday afternoon, so if it's tight it could run and run.

2) Iowa - 03:00 GMT close of polls. Results won't be final for a week, however the result will almost certainly be known during the night, unless it's a wafer-thin race.

3) Georgia - 00:00 GMT close of polls. Results will be Thursday at the latest, and that's only if it's a super-close race. Most absentee ballots have been processed already.

4) Ohio - 00:30 GMT close of polls. Final results won't be confirmed until the 18th at the latest, but absentee ballots should be processed quickly enough, meaning the result should be known on the night, barring a close race.

5) Florida - 01:00 GMT close of polls. Results likely within a couple of hours of the polls closing. However, if the race is close, it could take a little longer (ask Al Gore).

6) Arizona - 02:00 GMT close of polls. Last minute absentee ballots won't be properly processed until Friday, but most such ballots and Election Day votes will be counted on the night, meaning we should know the result swiftly...unless it's close.

7) North Carolina - 00:30 GMT close of polls. Most of the votes will be announced right after the polls close, but absentee ballots are allowed to arrive as late as the 12th November (!). So if it's close, it'll go on and on.

8) Pennsylvania - 01:00 GMT close of polls. This one could drag and drag. Election officials say most votes will be counted by Friday, so don't expect too much from the ultra-swift Pennsylvania election counters. They've set a deadline of 23rd November for counties in Pennsylvania to finish their count (!).

9) Michigan - 02:00 GMT close of polls. The winner will be known by Friday at the latest, they only started processing absentee ballots today.

10) Wisconsin - 02:00 GMT close of polls. Hurrah for Wisconsin! Their governor thinks the results will be known by Wednesday afternoon at the latest, but is hopeful  for an even swifter resolution.

11) Minnesota - 02:00 GMT close of polls. Should know the result on election night, unless we go into an ultra-tight race.

12) Nevada - 03:00 GMT close of polls. Mailed ballots are accepted until the 10th November, provided they were posted by the 3rd. So if it's close, we're in for a long wait.

13) New Hampshire - 01:00 GMT close of polls. The good folk of New Hampshire (such a beautiful state) are mostly voting on-the-day and in-person, so the result should be known on Election Night.

Trump needs to go down the hill winning everything from Texas up to and including Pennsylvania (or Michigan) to win four more years. Biden needs a gentle incline and everything from New Hampshire up to and including Pennsylvania.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:01 pm

Bright sunshine in Michigan and Florida tomorrow which should aid voter turnout..

Black voters will win or lose the Election...Some Republican commentators are confident they can get 20% instead of the 14% they got against Clinton....The 'rapper' intervention has given the GOP hope...

Other Democratic commentators are expecting Trump to get as low as 10%....

Trump's only hope is to leave the result close enough on Tuesday to get the lawyers in over the absentee ballots.

Tall order.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:21 am

Final prediction then:

Texas - Trump's ahead in the RCP polling average by a full 1.2%, which is a dip of where he was for most of September and October, and nowhere near as big as he'd like it.  However, most voters (at least 80% of the overall turnout) have already voted, and the early-vote projections are looking very strong for Trump, who also has that edge in the Election Day turnout. If Biden were to win here, he'd probably be piling up 400 on the EC scoreboard, but it's very difficult to make a case for him. Republicans strongly favoured.

Iowa - It was difficult to read this state for a while because of the lack of data, Biden even had the average polling lead for the entirety of October, but now Trump's edged out to a lead, and it's a bigger lead than the one he has in Texas (1.4%).  In spite of this, Biden's got a solid showing among the early voters, which will comprise up to 60% of the total turnout. However, this solid showing is unlikely to be enough with up to 2/3rds of Republican voters saying they won't be voting until Election Day, with one poll forecasting  a 64-28%  lead for Trump on Election Day voters, which is more than enough to overturn Biden's early advantage. Republicans strongly favoured.

Georgia - Biden had the average polling lead here for most of October, until Trump took it back last week. I thought Trump would build on his lead, but it stands at a perilous 0.2%. It seems to matter not, however, with projections appearing to show that the Republicans have a lead among the early voters, as well as their usual edge in Election Day turnout. One poll says that 25% of Republican-registered voters are waiting until election day to vote, compared to just 7% of Democrat-registered voters. Like Texas, at least 80% overall have already voted. Republicans strongly favoured.

Ohio - The outcome of this state has replicated the national result for the past 14 Presidential elections. You have to go back to 1960, when Nixon beat Kennedy in Ohio but lost the overall race, for something different. And the Republicans have never, ever won when Ohio's gone Democrat.So it's a good thing for Trump that, having been behind in the averages in this state since July, he now has an average lead as big as the one in Iowa, with recent polls spitting out red leads with joyous abandon. The early voting figures look good for Trump and, with about 40% of the state still to vote, he'll enjoy a big turnout on Election Day. Republicans strongly favoured.

Florida - Biden's fighting back in Florida, which I suppose is Trump's home state. Trump was solidly cutting into Biden's lead and making sizable inroads, but his momentum stalled in the middle of last week, and Biden has the average polling lead of 1.7%. However, these polls are also forecasting bigger early vote leads than are currently happening for Biden, and there appears to be some Democrat concern about this. A couple of polls indicate that Trump will have a 15% lead over Biden on Election Day voters, which will comprise (like Texas and Georgia) around 20% of the overall turnout. Another poll suggests that 36% of all Republican-registered voters will wait until Election Day, compared to 18% of all Democrat-registered voters. If there's a red wave in Florida on Tuesday, Trump wins, if there isn't, he doesn't. It's close. Republicans narrowly favoured.

Arizona - Similar polling story to Florida, really. Trump eat into that Biden lead consistently through October, then his polling momentum just stalled a little. Enough to leave Biden with an average lead of 0.5%. And, like Florida, the polls are forecasting bigger early vote leads for Biden than appear to be happening. Like a few of the above states, around 80% have voted early, but it's still comforting for Trump to know that he's set to enjoy a big Election Day lead in this state. One poll goes as far as to say Trump will enjoy a 75-20% lead over Biden among the Election Day voters. That should be enough to overturn Biden's, likely, small early voting lead. Republicans moderately favoured.

North Carolina - This is, just about, one state where Trump's kept the momentum going. Biden's polling average lead peaked at around 3% in October, now Trump has a narrow lead (0.5%) after steadily working through it. Once again, about 20% of voters are waiting until Election Day to vote, this section will be dominated by Republicans voting to overhaul the narrow Biden lead built up on the early votes. Republicans moderately favoured.

Pennsylvania - The key state. The key Commonwealth. If Trump's carried all the states above, this one can secure him a second term, hence why he's been spending so much time here. Biden will hope his need isn't as drastic, but if things have turned red in the above states, he needs this for victory. Biden still has a solid 3% lead in the averages, but this is looking shakier than England's batting order, what with two polls showing 'red' leads today and Biden's average lead sinking by 4% in under three weeks. This state is slightly different in that most voters, up to 60%, are planning to wait until Election Day to vote. Biden is meant to be enjoying a 75-22% lead among the early voters, but the figures coming out of Pennsylvania suggest his lead isn't as big as that. Trump is, of course, meant to have a large lead on Election Day voters, around 61-34%. Same as Florida, if that red wave comes out, Trump wins. Republicans narrowly favoured.

Michigan - Trump's heavily focused on this state as well. I wondered why, last week, as according to the polling he was a distance back and no sign of any momentum. Now we can see why. The average polling lead here for Biden has gone from 9% to 5% in under a week. The early voting numbers are disastrous for him. Never mind 75%, as early polls seemed to indicate he would get out of the early votes, he's struggling to hit 55%. And there's still around 45% still to vote and of that 45%, Trump will enjoy a healthy advantage.  If he wins all the above states, but not Pennsylvania, this is the one that can secure him a second term. Republicans narrowly favoured.

Wisconsin - Trump hasn't had a polling lead here since August and Biden's average polling lead is around 6%. Pretty healthy. But the early vote projections do not support the polling, and the early vote projections make it a tight race. Trump may even have the lead with early voters.  Couple that with the fact that around 40-45% are going to vote on Election Day, and things look fairly decent here for Trump. He might be on course to exceed the 1.4 million votes he won in Wisconsin in 2016. This might be a replica of 2016, where Trump confounded the polls by an astonishing margin. Republicans narrowly favoured.

Minnesota - How hard is it to go around the state of Minnesota and ask people how they're going to vote? Well, pretty difficult it seems. Not much polling done on this state. But Biden's had a pretty stable lead throughout, albeit it's down to just over 4% now. The early vote projections look solid for Biden and, even though there's still about half of them to vote, he should hold on here. Democrats narrowly favoured.

Nevada - Ditto Nevada. Mind you, it's so sparsely populated that it's probably difficult to locate people. More people have early voted here than voted overall, in Nevada, in 2016, so there's hardly anyone left who needs to vote on Tuesday. The polling has a solid 3.6% lead for Biden, which is close enough to put it into margin of error territory, and the last two polls have only had 2% leads for Biden, so it's getting close to toss-up territory. But the early votes look alright for Biden, so he should be OK here. Democrats narrowly favoured.

New Hampshire - And again for this state, a lack of real data. Biden's posted strong polling leads here, and his early vote numbers look strong. Most will be voting on-the-day, but even so it's difficult to see Trump overturning this one. Democrats strongly favoured.

Maine and Nebraska have a slightly different voting method. There's one district vote in Maine considered in the 'toss-up' category, worth one electoral college vote. It seems Biden has the edge here, so we'll assign it to him.

So my Electoral College prediction is: 304-234 Trump.
Upper Trump estimate: 320-218 Trump. (If all the close battles go Trump's way).
Upper Biden estimate: 309-229 Biden. (If all the close battles go Biden's way)

It appears I've been rather dull and ended up picking Trump to win the exact same states he did in 2016. Oh well! Don't misunderstand me, I think it's a very tight race, which could easily go Biden's way. Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nevada all look exceedingly close. Even Arizona and North Carolina aren't completely safe for the Republicans.

I know there's optimistic Republicans and Democrats out there who think that Colorado or South Carolina might flip, but I just can't see it. I think all the safe states are safe.

My predominant hope is the election is conducted cleanly, the results are swift, and everything finishes in good spirit and there's no outbreaks of rioting or violence. But it's a slim hope.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:42 am

Trump isn't as fresh and different compared to the established politician as he was in 2016....Covid has hit the blue collar communities more than the white collar...Trump did well with less educated blue collar workers especially male so that will hurt him..Two thirds have already voted...

Trump is toast..

Prediction..

Ohio...Trump just.
Georgia...Trump whisker.
North Carolina...Biden.
Wisconsin...Biden.
Pennsylvania...Biden
Michigan....Biden.
Iowa...Biden whisker.

Florida...Pickem..

Nevada should be Biden comfortably but they tend to vote more on the day...So a Trump upset could be worth a bet there...

Only ten or so votes though.

Prediction...Biden 320..ish...Trump 218...ish

No landslide but convincing.

Vote...Biden 50 Trump 43


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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:48 am

Texas is not a battleground state. If Biden came within 5% it would a success, given the results of previous elections.
Very surprised the Republicans are already attempting voter suppression via the courts there - no need.

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Post by Pal Joey on Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:47 am

Think Trump will hold Ohio, NC, Georgia, Florida, Iowa and Arizona.

Trump could possibly lose two out of PA, MI or WI.

Lose PA and WI - Trump 275 Biden 263
Lose MI and WI - Trump 279 Biden 259
Lose PA and MI - 269 - 269......!!

If Trump wins 2 out of those 3 states... then it's 4 more years.

However, given the delay in vote counting for PA, in particular, it might well drag out for some time and they can cue the court battles.
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:06 am

Trump would love Pennsylvania out of the 3..

If he took that he could give Biden...Iowa as well as Michigan and Wisconsin.

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Post by Mind the windows Tino. on Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:13 am

Duty281 wrote:

*Hopefully it doesn't drag on for a month like Bush/Gore. Could get real ugly if it does.

I would say there is very little chance of this not happening. Unless Biden absolutely steamrollers Trump and leaves no margin for error which is highly unlikely, then there is no chance Trump concedes this election without taking it through the courts. He has positioned himself for this eventuality from the very start with direct answers to questions about concessions. He has set the narrative that the election is rigged and will follow through on that narrative no matter what. He fulfills the diagnostics for a sociopath - lose big or lose narrowly, he will never concede defeat.

Mind the windows Tino.
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Post by GSC on Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:06 am

To be honest it wouldn't shock me too if we're adjusting too far in Trump's favour after the last election
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Post by Duty281 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:58 am

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Trump isn't as fresh and different compared to the established politician as he was in 2016....Covid has hit the blue collar communities more than the white collar...Trump did well with less educated blue collar workers especially male so that will hurt him..Two thirds have already voted...

Trump is toast..

Prediction..

Ohio...Trump just.
Georgia...Trump whisker.
North Carolina...Biden.
Wisconsin...Biden.
Pennsylvania...Biden
Michigan....Biden.
Iowa...Biden whisker.

Florida...Pickem..

Nevada should be Biden comfortably but they tend to vote more on the day...So a Trump upset could be worth a bet there...

Only ten or so votes though.

Prediction...Biden 320..ish...Trump 218...ish

No landslide but convincing.

Vote...Biden 50 Trump 43


Nevada is the state with the highest early voting turnout. I think everyone's been mailed a ballot there, whether requested or not.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:01 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:Texas is not a battleground state. If Biden came within 5% it would a success, given the results of previous elections.
Very surprised the Republicans are already attempting voter suppression via the courts there - no need.

The polling averages and the fact the Democrats are still campaigning there - Kamala was there yesterday - suggest it is.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:42 pm

You are right...mail in votes are double what they were in 2016...

I know Clark County and Carson Republicans used to use legal process to restrict them.

Apparently 39% v 36% to Biden...So it's in play..

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:19 pm

Robert Cahaly (Head of Trafalgar polling)

"Unlike other companies our polls take into account a small percentage of people who will support Trump but won't say so to our operators in case they look bad"....

"we have.....

Trump winning Florida, NC, Arizona by more than 2%....Michigan by 2%...Pennsylvania by 1%....

Biden winning Minnesota and Wisconsin by less than 2% and Nevada by 3%".


Could look very stupid if the consensus is right.......Trafalgar was the only pollster to call 2016 for Trump.

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:32 pm

I love the idea that people are too embarrassed to admit to voting for Trump.

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Post by superflyweight on Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:04 pm

It's because he's "not so strong on race", Jules.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:13 pm

Trafalgar...."Our returns are showing Trump doing better with young voters who hate him but hate the idea of lockdown more"






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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:05 pm

Would be interesting if Trump wins another four years as POTUS, but Democrats hold House and flip Senate. Would be hysterical if they then impeached and sacked the t0sspot a.s.a.p. (especially if he fails to win popular vote, again), leaving him open to all sorts of legal challenges. Not sure that would help w/ the polarisation etc, but some things are worth it.
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:16 pm

The most the Democrats will win is 52 Senate seats if you give them toss ups.

Need 67 to impeach.

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Post by lostinwales on Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:19 pm

It is interesting how things all work out. Normally the US president doesn't have a big impact on us over in the UK. We all liked Obama because he's smart and likeable and he's very funny, and we do respond to a sense of humour, but I am not convinced it made much direct difference, him or Bush.

Trump is different, because there doesn't seem to be any joined up thinking and he doesn't seem to care about anything overseas unless there is a direct link to the US. I get the feeling that the likes of Russia (and going on down) do to some degree care about what the USA thinks. Sometimes, particularly in the past (I am thinking of Central and South America) what the USA thought was do what you want as long as you keep the 'commies' out and make life easier for American companies. But there has been a desire to avoid pushing the US too much. With Trump it seems the crazier the dictator the happier Trump is to cheer them on. I think this has made the world a more dangerous place.

What I am trying to say that in principle a competent Republican is probably as good for us as Biden might be. Finding a competent Republican after 4 years with 'Donnie' may be hard, but that is separate problem.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:46 pm

The 8 Countries Obama dropped bombs on didn't like him..Black Communities that got poorer under Obama didn't like him..Bigger divide between rich and poor than there was under Bush.....Prisoners in Guantanimo Obama lied about releasing didn't like him....I could go on but I won't.

Obama was full of crap....

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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:53 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The most the Democrats will win is 52 Senate seats if you give them toss ups.

Need 67 to impeach.
Ah, true. Good point. Pity. Maybe they can railroad a change to procedure so that it's a simple majority that's needed?
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Post by lostinwales on Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:56 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The 8 Countries Obama dropped bombs on didn't like him..Black Communities that got poorer under Obama didn't like him..Bigger divide between rich and poor than there was under Bush.....Prisoners in Guantanimo Obama lied about releasing didn't like him....I could go on but I won't.

Obama was full of crap....

You don't like him. That is fine. We don't have to agree on anything. I am just saying why a lot of people in the UK do like him.

No politician achieves anything without pissing off someone, you just have to hope on balance they get more things right than not. Trump its hard to find much he has done right, and most of the stuff that has worked out would of done so anyway.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:06 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The 8 Countries Obama dropped bombs on didn't like him..Black Communities that got poorer under Obama didn't like him..Bigger divide between rich and poor than there was under Bush.....Prisoners in Guantanimo Obama lied about releasing didn't like him....I could go on but I won't.

Obama was full of crap....
You may have some points, but your visceral hatred of Obama is daft. Obama had the fallout of the financial crash to deal w/ early doors (maybe blame Dubya etc). Guantanamo wasn't Obama's baby - maybe he couldn't get anyone to take those prisoners back? Obama didn't start Iraq or Afghanistan.

Trump is interested in one thing, and one thing only - himself. The sooner people understand that they need to view anything he does through that prism, the sooner they'll get it. If anything positive for anyone other than him comes from anything he does, it's simply bycatch.
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:41 pm

The most dangerous thing for the US is how easily swayed Trump is by flattery. Blow smoke up his @rse, or better yet send him a big letter, and he's all yours. And if that doesn't do it, just spend some money at his hotels.

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Post by Mind the windows Tino. on Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:42 pm

I was a trader in the City for nearly 20 years before I had a mid-life crisis/nervous breakdown left to do other things and I remember 2016 (both the Brexit vote and Trump v Clinton) like it was yesterday with everyone on the trading floor working through the night and watching the markets wing around with various degrees of misery and/or joy. I still keep in touch with a few of the guys and girls and they are all gearing up for it again. A proper all night session and this time it is going to even more volatile I would expect. Not many people were betting on a Trump win in 2016 but this year, the world is such a different place and although a Biden win is clearly the trade, no one I have spoken to is anywhere near as sure as they were back in 2016 and we all got that wrong anyway! The volatility is going to insane for a few hours/days.

Can't say I envy them. It will be fun to watch if you're not financially or emotionally invested in it. I am happy to watch it unfold from my sofa before I fall asleep before it even gets going.

Mind the windows Tino.
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Post by Duty281 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:44 pm

Joe Biden 4/9 with Paddy Power, Donald Trump 15/8.

Republicans 4/6 in Florida, 4/6 in Georgia, 4/11 in Ohio. Outsiders in Pennsylvania at 6/4, big outsiders in Michigan at 3/1 and Wisconsin at 7/2, and narrowly outside at evens in Arizona and 11/10 in NC.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:40 pm

Trump has a better than 1 in 3 chance...

Broward County, heavily democrat in Florida..Have Trump doing slightly better than 2016..

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:16 pm

Conservative estimates have Biden ahead 50% to 47% with only 5 hours left in Florida...If independent voter breakdowns are to be believed.

Trump around 300,000 behind...

Florida looks like flipping... Could be a landslide.

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:57 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Conservative estimates have Biden ahead 50% to 47% with only 5 hours left in Florida...If independent voter breakdowns are to be believed.

Trump around 300,000 behind...

Florida looks like flipping... Could be a landslide.

Republican lawyers must be reading every electoral law book they can gets their hands on.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:02 pm

Blimey, Truss, you're all over the shop today. Trump's toast, then he has better than a 1 in 3 chance, now it could be a landslide for Biden.

Relax and wait a few hours!

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:04 pm

Hours, days, weeks, who knows?

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