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Post by Pal Joey on Tue 09 Jul 2019, 11:50 am

First topic message reminder :

Galted wrote:
Pal Joey wrote:Just between us few on here... I have a feeling the Queen likes Trump.

Don't ask me to explain why but their body language seemed to be in a sort of comfortable harmony when they stood beside each other in June or whenever it was. And I think he quite likes all of that pomp and ceremony... as someone who likes being the centre of attention would.

He's a cross between a court jester and a village idiot so she would love him. Probably lets him run round the grounds with the corgis.

Laugh

Yes... and also the fact that he has just a touch of olde worlde charm (probably brutally drummed into him from the NY Military Academy) despite his apparently frightening unpredictability in this day and age.
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Post by Duty281 on Tue 03 Nov 2020, 9:05 pm

Anyway 26 votes have already been counted, in the beautiful state of New Hampshire.

Trump's leading by 16 votes to 10.

Biden may as well concede now...Whistle

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 03 Nov 2020, 9:08 pm

Trump leads by 174k with registered Party votes in Florida but with independents set to break 60-40 Biden...

Needs to get at least 300k ahead.

Still time but it's running out...

Nevada turnout on the day high...

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Post by Pal Joey on Tue 03 Nov 2020, 9:15 pm

I wonder what Sarah Palin is doing? Probably checking her bear traps...
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 03 Nov 2020, 9:21 pm

"You Betcha"

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 03 Nov 2020, 9:51 pm

Biden's early lead in Arizona down to 52k....four hours left till polls close there..

Heavy early voting but too close to call..

Trump won by 3% in 2016..

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Post by GSC on Tue 03 Nov 2020, 9:55 pm

Would imagine the die hards for either side tend to vote early so relying on the undecideds now
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 03 Nov 2020, 10:39 pm

Georgia exit poll data....Voters number one issue.

38% Economy
22% Racial inequality
14% Covid 19
11% Crime and safety
11% Healthcare..

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 03 Nov 2020, 10:49 pm

So for 62% it's not the economy.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 03 Nov 2020, 11:22 pm

Fivethirtyeight calling Florida for Biden.

Over....If that's the case.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 03 Nov 2020, 11:33 pm

Trump needs at least a lead of 300k based on NPA forecasts..which give Biden 60-40.

40 mins to close of play....lead is 209.3k

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 03 Nov 2020, 11:36 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Trump needs at least a lead of 300k based on NPA forecasts..which give Biden 60-40.

40 mins to close of play....lead is 209.3k

Which site(s) are you looking at?

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 03 Nov 2020, 11:46 pm

I think he's looking at @politics_polls on Twitter.

Actual results will start coming in from Florida in just over 15 minutes. Good live map below:

https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map/

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 12:20 am

Alternatively type in the state with 2020 after it and you will get an up to date score.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 12:22 am

Trump getting good early results in Florida. Early ballots coming in and Biden only has a slender lead.

NYT forecasting 81% probability that Trump takes Florida.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 12:29 am

57% in Florida..

Biden 50
Trump 49

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 12:31 am

That's all but sealed up Florida for Trump, then, with the heavily Republican counties yet to declare. Seems he's won it by a bigger margin than in 2016, if the NYT needle is accurate.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 12:44 am

76%....Florida...

Biden 50.4
Trump 48.7

Very close..

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 12:47 am

Not close at all. Biden's meant to have a huge lead at this stage in Florida, NYT saying greater than 95% chance Trump wins Florida.

Trump near-enough favourite on the exchanges now.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 12:51 am

49.9 v 49.3 Biden....Still some Democrat precincts left...But yes closer than expected...


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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 12:53 am

North Carolina counting now....Bellwether..

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 12:59 am

Biden underperforming with the Hispanic vote in South Florida.

Miami Dade..

Clinton 64-34 2016
Biden 54-45....2020 with 84% in.


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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 1:00 am

As expected, really, the polls said Trump was doing better amongst non-white voters (compared to 2016, not Biden), but few paid any attention.

Trump now favourite to win the Presidency with the odds-makers. NYT forecasting a 76% chance he wins the key state of Georgia.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 1:04 am

None of the rust belt in yet...

Trump takes lead in Florida.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 1:41 am

Florida's in the bank for Trump. Georgia looks fairly safe as does North Carolina, Texas also looking good for him on the early returns. Might be some early concerns about Ohio, but there's still the Election Day vote to come.

Arizona to start announcing soon, as will Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Virginia looking odd at the moment. Meant to be safe Democrat, but it's 58-40 Trump after a third of the vote is counted.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 2:15 am

Ohio's looking strong again for Trump, he can relax. Add that to the tally along with Florida/Georgia/NC/Texas.

Early votes for Biden in Pennsylvania not looking as strong as polling forecasts (no surprise), and Trump's probably loving the early numbers coming out of Michigan.

Eyes soon to be on Arizona/Minnesota/Wisconsin/Nevada.

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Post by alfie on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 2:17 am

Not sure how you can be so confident your man Donald is safe in NC , Duty ?  Figures I am seeing suggest otherwise , though I may be missing something. Certainly he must be happy with Florida but I'm not too surprised by that.

Biden has a nice lead in Ohio but commentators seem to think this may not last. Texas early lead for Biden so although that one is unlikely to switch I am not sure why you say it is looking good for Trump?
Oddly no-one seems bothered by the Trump (apparently significant ?) lead in Virginia ...presume the locals know their details better.

Way too early to pick an overall winner , surely.  But if Pennsylvania continues as it has started I imagine the Democrats will be confident ...

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 2:20 am

NYT needle up to 88% chance for Trump in NC.

It's because Biden strongholds are announced first (combination of early votes being reported first, and urban areas earlier than rural areas), then Trump strongholds.

So in Texas, you expect Biden to grab the lead early, then Trump to pile up the later votes. This is true in the majority of the states. For another example, in Ohio they've counted all the early votes now, what's left is the Election Day votes where Trump is forecast to have a double digit % lead.

Trump now 8/11 to win the election with Bet365.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 2:31 am

Make those odds 4/9 now. I'm ready to say Trump's won this election, barring a miraculous turnaround from Biden.

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Post by alfie on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 2:34 am

No , I get that early results don't tell the whole picture : but it seems to me that you are perhaps seeing what you want to see , with some outlets projecting one way and others leaning in the opposite direction : just because a trend is expected to turn around doesn't necessarily mean it will turn far enough . We have been told for ages that results in many states can swirl around a lot before a true picture emerges but I am waiting until I see a bit more conviction from the unbiased observers before making any assumptions.

( I presume the lack of Democrat concern over Virginia is based on similar factors) But with so many votes still to count in most of these states it still seems to me far too early to start calling the result.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 2:40 am

Fairs, but it's not just me.

I mean NC is 1/25 with BET365 to go Republican. Georgia is 1/8. Ohio is 1/5. Texas is so Republican you can't get odds on it. Pennsylvania is now 4/6 to go Republican.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 2:51 am

North Carolina is 90% chance Biden according to Fox

90% chance Trump according to NYT..

Still fancy Biden to win the White house.

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Post by alfie on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 2:52 am

I suppose the bookies generally do well Smile But they aren't foolproof.

I do have to say I am more nervous than I'd hoped , looking at the figures so far , that the spectre of another four years of this reality show narcissist is still looming.

We will see. I still think (as I have all along ) it will probably be decided in Pennsylvania ...which might take a while.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 2:57 am

Get your money on Truss, if you still fancy him. He's out to 5/2 now, with Trump tightening to 1/3.

Michigan's numbers looking strong for Trump, Pennsylvania looking good too.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 3:01 am

Got to hand it to you Duty you are closer than I was whoever wins.

Trump just goes ahead in Penn...25% in.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 3:04 am

Trump's now a strong favourite in Pennsylvania, and pretty decently set in Michigan and Wisconsin too. He's breezed into the lead in Ohio, Texas and NC.

Say goodnight, Joe.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 3:11 am

The early voting in Arizona is released, comprises around 70% of the turnout. Biden leads 55-44.

That's not enough.

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Post by Pal Joey on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 3:17 am

The thing with Pennsylvania is Alfie, the early voting (19% so far) is mainly 3 counties around Philadelphia; Philadelphia 89% Dem, Montgomery 85% Dem, Delaware (County) 85% Dem. Then there's Centre County 79% Dem and Allegheny 80% Dem.

Just about every other rural county will go Trump's way - 60%-80% say. Currently 490,000 have voted for Joe...  290,000 for Trump - hence the 63% - 36% Biden's way with only 19% counted. Most are early pre polling day votes and on the day counting from the large urban areas. The rural counties go the other way is what's important to note.

The tricky bit will be the postal votes trickling in over the next few days... I've even heard up until 7th Nov?... so that is when Biden may claw things back... and then Trump will probably kick up a fuss - even though the Court has already ruled that late votes will be accepted.

Confusing isn't it?

Anyway check out the map, go to Penn... and click on the counties... you'll see what I mean.

https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map/

Jeez... that map has changed quickly. Filling up with red!


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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 3:21 am

The count in Pennsylvania could drag on as long as the 23rd of this month. North Carolina is accepting postal ballots for another 8 days (provided they were sent by the 3rd).

So it could drag on a while unless Trump makes it safe.


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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 3:53 am

Pundits don't seem to be factoring in that the Arizona vote currently recorded is the early stuff. As many as three-quarters of the remaining 25% are going for Trump, could be a half a million Republican votes in there.

Biden still in with a faint chance of taking Georgia as we start to see the mail ballots. But highly unlikely.

Trump currently leading the pop. vote by three million, but California still to come.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 4:14 am

Trump has a 4% lead in Wisconsin, about half the votes called. 14% lead in Pennsylvania, but most of the mail ballots (25-33% of the overall turnout) not yet counted. 12% lead in Michigan. Soon to take the lead in Iowa.

Biden seems to have Minnesota and New Hampshire tied up. Waiting on Arizona and Nevada.

Total reversal as Democrat figures are hoping to drag the election out for days, while the Republicans want a swift conclusion.

Can't understand why Florida, Texas and Ohio haven't been called yet. Unassailable lead for Trump in those states.

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Post by alfie on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 5:04 am

Pretty clear this won't be declared today...

For all the sound and fury not one state has actually switched yet from 2016. Not sure anyone really knows what will come of all the later votes on the key states ; though it is fair to say the Republicans will be optimistic given the figures are largely contradicting a lot of the advance polling.

Obviously if Biden falls short in those rust belt states it is all over but I think that is far from a done deal. Trump has a nice lead in Penn but a lot of mail votes to be counted (cue legal battles if they get Joe over the line ?)

Fascinating possibility if Biden takes Arizona and yet loses Pennsylvania...could end up that the split Electoral College vote in Nebraska might decide the whole race...

-------

https://www.606v2.com/viewtopic.php?t=69820

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