Brexit

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Tea anyone?

Now is the time for Labour and the Lib Dems to pit aside their pettiness and come to an agreement over who should be temporary PM after a VonC. If Johnson refuses an extension I cant see where else to go.

dont think boris is allowed to without parliament saying so.

Hence the petulant child act.

Samo wrote:Now is the time for Labour and the Lib Dems to pit aside their pettiness and come to an agreement over who should be temporary PM after a VonC. If Johnson refuses an extension I cant see where else to go.

Yes but if they go with Corbyn they'll be very lucky to get over the line and then we'll be left with another minority government lead by a leader hated by much of the population. He won't be able to build a cabinet out of yes men, and will find it hard to get any kind of legislation through. Still better than Johnson and the morons, but its going to be a very tough gig and one that Corbyn would not survive.

A "Labour + SNP + ..." coalition government could only be achieved with Labour agreeing to an IndyRef2 for Scotland.  This will almost certainly lead to an independent Scotland as i doubt Jeremy Corbyn could persuade Scotland to stick with "England" and Westminster.  So that scenario in my opinion would certainly lead to an Independent Scotland.  

However it is not clear to me Jeremy Corbyn would allow such an opportunity to arise - so I am not sure Jeremy Corbyn would ever ally Labour to the SNP in forming a coalition government.

For me as I see things at the moment, the future for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and NI is looking less than rosy.

Brexit is the type of thing that should only be considered from a position of strength rather than a position of weakness.  And secondly it needs to be a long muti-phased withdrawal - with the first phase being transitioning to a full customs union with the EU (but with no "voting rights"). This is of course, just my opinion.

lostinwales wrote:

Samo wrote:Now is the time for Labour and the Lib Dems to pit aside their pettiness and come to an agreement over who should be temporary PM after a VonC. If Johnson refuses an extension I cant see where else to go.

Yes but if they go with Corbyn they'll be very lucky to get over the line and then we'll be left with another minority government lead by a leader hated by much of the population. He won't be able to build a cabinet out of yes men, and will find it hard to get any kind of legislation through. Still better than Johnson and the morons, but its going to be a very tough gig and one that Corbyn would not survive.

Didn't they win the Mercury Music Prize one year?

No name Bertie wrote: so I am not sure Jeremy Corbyn would ever ally Labour to the SNP in forming a coalition government.

It is amazing how people's principles change though when faced with only one opportunity of power. Look at the Lib Dems

Afro wrote:

No name Bertie wrote: so I am not sure Jeremy Corbyn would ever ally Labour to the SNP in forming a coalition government.

It is amazing how people's principles change though when faced with only one opportunity of power. Look at the Lib Dems

Obviously a glaring and good point but for me still a little evasive. I'd suggest replacing 'change' with 'disintegrate'. Principles don't really exist in politics - opportunism always kicks the schidt out of them eventually.

Norman Smith wrote:And there are those in government who are deeply wary of a winter election. Why? Bluntly, because it is so blooming cold.

No-one is going to thank him if they have to tramp off to the polling station in the bleak midwinter. There's a fear that older voters would be the most likely not to turn up - yet those may be the ones who were keenest to back Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50153910

Interesting!

Older voters are more likely to have a postal vote, so won’t need to worry about traipsing down to a polling station on a given winter’s day.

They are also less likely to be working/more likely to be retired, so have all day to make there way to the polling station, whereas those working will have to get there before/after work, when is likely to be dark and at its most "wintery"

Duty281 wrote:Older voters are more likely to have a postal vote, so won’t need to worry about traipsing down to a polling station on a given winter’s day.

I think that's the first time I've ever seen 'traipsing' written down

This really is Monty Python stuff. The folks afraid of an election don't want one coz it's cold out in the winter.

It's cold out in the winter when the shops are full of Christmas shoppers too...men, women, kids, grannies who whittle sticks for a living.

Yep. Ridiculous. If it's come to the point where it really does make a difference what the weather is re. when to call an election, this country is FUBAR beyond salvaging. Utterly pathetic. I'm not sure we deserve to be able to vote; we certainly don't deserve to criticise an outcome of any vote that we don't like, Brexit included.

Was pretty funny hearing that Labour MP say that him and his wife took longer to deliberate what sofa to get than Parliament was being given to debate this Agreement.

A friend at work has placed a bet on Brexit not being sorted by this time next year. He was pushed to confirm he meant the withdrawal agreement not being implemented or leaving without a deal or staying in. The limbo we are in now.

His reasoning is that there will be a VONC, with a coalition government forming. Labour will have the majority in that and will push for a re-negotiation that EU will turn noses up at. This forces them to call a 2nd referendum, which Remain wins but narrowly. There will then be court cases to say this result is void as the first referendum should have been carried out and is just as much the "will of the people" as the first one was. This draws out the whole process into 2021.

Whereas I think this is pretty absurd, a) we have seen enough already to think anything is possible and b) if it does happen and he makes some money out of it then it will be the happiest outcome I have felt around the whole subject!

TwisT wrote:A friend at work has placed a bet on Brexit not being sorted by this time next year. He was pushed to confirm he meant the withdrawal agreement not being implemented or leaving without a deal or staying in. The limbo we are in now.

His reasoning is that there will be a VONC, with a coalition government forming. Labour will have the majority in that and will push for a re-negotiation that EU will turn noses up at. This forces them to call a 2nd referendum, which Remain wins but narrowly. There will then be court cases to say this result is void as the first referendum should have been carried out and is just as much the "will of the people" as the first one was. This draws out the whole process into 2021.

Whereas I think this is pretty absurd, a) we have seen enough already to think anything is possible and b) if it does happen and he makes some money out of it then it will be the happiest outcome I have felt around the whole subject!

Referendums are advisory so that will never happen.

TwisT wrote:A friend at work has placed a bet on Brexit not being sorted by this time next year. He was pushed to confirm he meant the withdrawal agreement not being implemented or leaving without a deal or staying in. The limbo we are in now.

His reasoning is that there will be a VONC, with a coalition government forming. Labour will have the majority in that and will push for a re-negotiation that EU will turn noses up at. This forces them to call a 2nd referendum, which Remain wins but narrowly. There will then be court cases to say this result is void as the first referendum should have been carried out and is just as much the "will of the people" as the first one was. This draws out the whole process into 2021.

Whereas I think this is pretty absurd, a) we have seen enough already to think anything is possible and b) if it does happen and he makes some money out of it then it will be the happiest outcome I have felt around the whole subject!

What I think is sad is that it seems to me "the people" are not really much the wiser about the functioning of the EC/EU, how entangled the UK is within the EU, the difficulty of disentangling the UK from the EU, the time it takes to create new trade and other agreements with international partners, precisely what the UK is giving up, precisely what the advantages are of leaving the EU, the degree of flexibility the UK had with regard to adopting EU policies (other countries tend to find ways of avoiding certain things they don't like about EU regulations) and so on.

It is so complex that not even the experts that devote their full time to the EU understand fully the ins and outs of all the issues - with some things resolvable only through the courts.  [Ps: and it also depends on exactly what leaving deal is agreed to - and nobody knows what precisely that is].

So I don't blame "the people" for this lack of understanding but I do blame the media in the way they are reporting on it - especially the BBC who are guaranteed the license money and other benefits for the purposing of informing and explaining such matters to the public.  And I do blame our political system.

In general "the people" will focus on simplified issues (that may be misleading) and place a lot of emphasis on what politicians they can "trust".

Soul Requiem wrote:

TwisT wrote:A friend at work has placed a bet on Brexit not being sorted by this time next year. He was pushed to confirm he meant the withdrawal agreement not being implemented or leaving without a deal or staying in. The limbo we are in now.

His reasoning is that there will be a VONC, with a coalition government forming. Labour will have the majority in that and will push for a re-negotiation that EU will turn noses up at. This forces them to call a 2nd referendum, which Remain wins but narrowly. There will then be court cases to say this result is void as the first referendum should have been carried out and is just as much the "will of the people" as the first one was. This draws out the whole process into 2021.

Whereas I think this is pretty absurd, a) we have seen enough already to think anything is possible and b) if it does happen and he makes some money out of it then it will be the happiest outcome I have felt around the whole subject!

Referendums are advisory so that will never happen.

No they're not always.
The 2011 alternative vote referendum result was compulsory rather than advisory.

Hero wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:

TwisT wrote:A friend at work has placed a bet on Brexit not being sorted by this time next year. He was pushed to confirm he meant the withdrawal agreement not being implemented or leaving without a deal or staying in. The limbo we are in now.

His reasoning is that there will be a VONC, with a coalition government forming. Labour will have the majority in that and will push for a re-negotiation that EU will turn noses up at. This forces them to call a 2nd referendum, which Remain wins but narrowly. There will then be court cases to say this result is void as the first referendum should have been carried out and is just as much the "will of the people" as the first one was. This draws out the whole process into 2021.

Whereas I think this is pretty absurd, a) we have seen enough already to think anything is possible and b) if it does happen and he makes some money out of it then it will be the happiest outcome I have felt around the whole subject!

Referendums are advisory so that will never happen.

No they're not always.
The 2011 alternative vote referendum result was compulsory rather than advisory.

For the most part they’re also only advisory if there is new legislation that needs to be passed. Seeing as a vote for Remain means nothing would change that decision is automatically implemented so technically its binding.

No name Bertie wrote:

TwisT wrote:A friend at work has placed a bet on Brexit not being sorted by this time next year. He was pushed to confirm he meant the withdrawal agreement not being implemented or leaving without a deal or staying in. The limbo we are in now.

His reasoning is that there will be a VONC, with a coalition government forming. Labour will have the majority in that and will push for a re-negotiation that EU will turn noses up at. This forces them to call a 2nd referendum, which Remain wins but narrowly. There will then be court cases to say this result is void as the first referendum should have been carried out and is just as much the "will of the people" as the first one was. This draws out the whole process into 2021.

Whereas I think this is pretty absurd, a) we have seen enough already to think anything is possible and b) if it does happen and he makes some money out of it then it will be the happiest outcome I have felt around the whole subject!

What I think is sad is that it seems to me "the people" are not really much the wiser about the functioning of the EC/EU, how entangled the UK is within the EU, the difficulty of disentangling the UK from the EU, the time it takes to create new trade and other agreements with international partners, precisely what the UK is giving up, precisely what the advantages are of leaving the EU, the degree of flexibility the UK had with regard to adopting EU policies (other countries tend to find ways of avoiding certain things they don't like about EU regulations) and so on.

It is so complex that not even the experts that devote their full time to the EU understand fully the ins and outs of all the issues - with some things resolvable only through the courts.  [Ps: and it also depends on exactly what leaving deal is agreed to - and nobody knows what precisely that is].

So I don't blame "the people" for this lack of understanding but I do blame the media in the way they are reporting on it - especially the BBC who are guaranteed the license money and other benefits for the purposing of informing and explaining such matters to the public.  And I do blame our political system.

In general "the people" will focus on simplified issues (that may be misleading) and place a lot of emphasis on what politicians they can "trust".

I agree with a lot of this. The BBC seems far too quick to run vox-pop pieces from around the country, which not only don't help inform the viewer on what is a very complicated business, but almost encourage the viewer not to even try to understand it, by giving the impression that no one else understands it either. It also encourages the view that parliament and MPs are remote and different from the man (or woman) in the street, which is very unhelpful, unless you're seeking to capitalise on such a mindset.

The BBC falls down here, too: Kuenssberg will say that MPs oppose this or that, but won't go on to explain why they oppose it, and what the specific objections are. It's all too general. And into the space left by that vital information, the government can insert whatever invented reason plays best with its target audience.

What's especially depressing is seeing the same people who exploited the public's ignorance of the EU and our relationship with it now seeking to exploit the public's ignorance of how our own country works - parliament, the courts, et cetera.

Duty281 wrote:Older voters are more likely to have a postal vote, so won’t need to worry about traipsing down to a polling station on a given winter’s day.

I don't think the Tories are worried about traipsing..

More worried about relying on the Royal Mail in December during the Christmas rush when they have five times more mail than any other time of year...

Certainly Corbyn should go for a date as close to Christmas as possible..

If there is anything I can say about voting in my little English village, the old buggers take it as a great day. Going up there, chatting away, they enjoy it more than a wake.

When exactly is this Extension going to be Requested and Granted and Accepted?

I assume this double letter from Boris Johnson one without his signature and one with his signature - with words to the effect 'I have been forced to apply for an extension but please don't accept my extension request - let's just allow the Oct 31 deadline to pass and allow the no-deal default to occur' (Or maybe I am wrong on that interpretation).

Anyway I am keen to know if and when there is going to be an extension to the Oct. 31 deadline. Thanks.

'EU ambassadors are meeting to discuss what length of Brexit delay to offer the UK, as MPs consider Boris Johnson's call for an early election.

'BBC Europe correspondent Kevin Connolly said the EU had hoped the decision on the length of delay would be made on Friday, though it was possible it could be moved until early next week - potentially with an emergency summit - to allow events at Westminster to unfold.

'A stand-off could emerge, he added, where the EU wants to wait to see how Parliament reacts to the election proposal, while MPs want to first see what sort of extension will be offered.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50175914

The whole process has become a farce.

No name Bertie wrote:The whole process has become a farce.

'Become'? You're an optimistic glass-half-full chap, ain't you,

Claudius..."I will die in a ditch if we are not out on Oct 31 !!!"

Hope he isn't going to disappoint us..

He also said 'no ifs or buts'. There are several of those now.

I've said before, the man has learnt nothing from Theresa May's experience. Don't make promises you don't have the power to make.

On the subject of the proposed general election, Sebastian Payne - no remainer - was on Sky News this morning saying that all the models he's looked at point to another hung parliament. It's more a question of which seats will change hands.

I seem to recall the BBC mocking David Cameron for the "new deal" he got with the EU prior to the start of the 2016 EU Referendum Campaign.

Then during the 2016 EU Referendum Campaign the BBC seemed to take sides with the Remain Campaign in what became known as project fear.

Since the result of the EU Referendum Campaign - it seems the BBC have continued to run stories in support of remaining / second referendum in a continuation of what some consider to be project fear.

And yet they mock the Conservatives for not implementing Brexit and so effectively not delivering on their promises (which some say is equivalent to lieing).

It is as if the BBC don't really care and are only interested in sensationalist storymaking, discrediting others, and laying blame.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote: saying that all the models he's looked at point to another hung parliament.

Better looking models needed.

Or a well hung parliament.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Or a well hung parliament.

Now you're watching the right movie.

A genuine question: what do people make of the government proclaiming that we have a 'zombie parliament' that's 'blocking Brexit', when just this week it has voted in favour of both the Queen's speech and a second reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill? How exactly is the government not getting its way here?

Boris Johnson's team seems to me to be more interested in tomorrow's headlines than anything else. There doesn't seem to be that much long-term thinking, not least in considering how leave supporters may feel on learning that passing the Withdrawal Agreement doesn't 'get Brexit done' at all.

I'd assume the majority of actual Leave voters have long since left the parliament and the government to its Alice in Wonderland dalliances, with Bercow as the Mad Hatter at his Tea Party of course.

I think the Leave voters plan to make itknown what they think when they get an Election.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:A genuine question: what do people make of the government proclaiming that we have a 'zombie parliament' that's 'blocking Brexit', when just this week it has voted in favour of both the Queen's speech and a second reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill? How exactly is the government not getting its way here?

Boris Johnson's team seems to me to be more interested in tomorrow's headlines than anything else. There doesn't seem to be that much long-term thinking, not least in considering how leave supporters may feel on learning that passing the Withdrawal Agreement doesn't 'get Brexit done' at all.

The Johnson pitch of let’s have an election or I won’t let you debate my deal to leave certainly doesn’t make any sense. So he is saying if we don’t have an election he will accept we aren’t leaving? Dead in a ditch and all that.

Just the many in the long line of contradictions. Right next to suspending parliament is nothing to do with Brexit, we need to have a Queens Speech to get our radical domestic agenda done to now if you don’t vote for an election we are going on strike.

Classic Dom.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:A genuine question: what do people make of the government proclaiming that we have a 'zombie parliament' ...

Personally it means nothing to me - it is just politics. I am only really interested at this moment in time in avoiding Brexit if it is possible (my personal choice & reasoning) and not being taken unawares that somehow Britain has been defaulted out of the EU.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:On the subject of the proposed general election, Sebastian Payne - no remainer - was on Sky News this morning saying that all the models he's looked at point to another hung parliament. It's more a question of which seats will change hands.

Indeed, if the U.K. doesn’t leave on October 31st and we have a GE in December/January then the Tories current lead will evaporate, as they will lose a lot of support to the Brexit Party.

Could end up with a situation where a December/January GE leaves the four biggest parties all getting between 20-30% of the vote. If that happened, it could be the death blow to FPTP, with a hung parliament having been delivered on three out of the last four elections.

Dont think the Brexit Company Ltd. will get enough seats to be a major factor. I think we’re looking at a Lab-LD-SNP coalition on the proviso that Labour let the SNP have another referendum.

Problem is a GE still wont solve the Brexit issue.

Well Samo if the latter happened with Labour and SNP coalition (will leave Lib Dems out as they wouldnt join such a coalition) it would tell us definitely that people do not want a Boris Brexit. Labour are pushing for a softer Brexit with referendum on it thereafter with a sort of customs union involved. If the EU knew Labour's softer Brexit intention then they would definitely re-open negotiations.

Deadline “flex”tended to 31st Jan, but we have the ability to leave sooner should the WA make it through Parliament. A General Election now looks certain, only question is when.

Samo wrote:Deadline “flex”tended to 31st Jan, but we have the ability to leave sooner should the WA make it through Parliament. A General Election now looks certain, only question is when.

It is all a great mess really.

The Tories want a General Election with all polls showing they will increase their seat count and perhaps get a majority allowing them to push through whatever bills they want with regards to Brexit.

Labour do not want a General Election until No Deal is off the table and most polls suggest they could lose more seats than they'd gain.

The Lib Dems want a General Election but on terms including No Deal coming off the table and agreeing to a People's Referendum (well a GE would be as good as that anyway).

The SNP also want No Deal taking off the table but are keen for a General Election as all polls suggest they will gain between 10 to 15 seats in Scotland which they will show as a mandate for Indy Ref2.

As I see it an early December election makes sense for several reasons. It will allow voters to voice their opinion on the Brexit situation so would be a sort of People's Referendum. If the Tories do increase their seat count to a point of majority then surely the people have spoken and the Deal on the table will then get passed. If Labour get enough seats and parliament is hung then they can form a coalition government and would have time to put their own plans in to the EU for their own deal. I am certain the EU would be all ears given that Labour prefer a softer Brexit. A General Election would seem the most logical way to break the deadlock at Westminster.

No Deal off the table is a bizarre position. No Deal is always going to be on the table unless you revoke article 50. And if that is what they want, just come out and say (the Libs did say they would if they win a majority, lol, to be fair).

Not sure whether an extension to January 31st makes a GE more or less likely? They will have to crack on with voting for one, otherwise time will slip away and we’ll be in the same situation we are now where the non-Tories won’t vote for one as it is too close to the deadline and risks slipping out with no deal.

I am going to celebrate the Brexit extension to 31 Jan 2020. I was worried that Britain would default out of the EU Oct 31 2019.

The problem with a GE is that although it will be dominated by Brexit, it will be fought over many other issues.

There is no satisfactory route forward. I believe a confirmatory referendum would be one of the least unsatisfactory routes but the Conservatives really don't want it as they'd probably lose, and Labour are reluctant, apparently because of some kind of combo of JC being a Brexit (with a deal) supporter and not wanting to scare Brexiteers away.

GE in December looks odds on now..

Latest seat betting..

Con 317-325
Lab 202-210
Lib 45 - 50.....

Tories vacillating between a minority and majority...

Not sure 317 would be enough for Johnson to sustain now the DUP are hostile...(Minority Govt with these bunch of ultra right wing planks wouldn't last long)..Lib Dems could go in with them again but they can right off the Election after that so I'm not sure that will ride..

Hard to see how Labour's Brexit positioning gets them a chip in the game....Poorly handled...

Not sure what I see happening.......Hopefully a ton of tactical voting..

Corbyn is crap but I will be darned if I want a mysogynistic...racist....bigot winning another Election...

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:GE in December looks odds on now..

Latest seat betting..

Con 317-325
Lab 202-210
Lib  45 - 50.....

Tories vacillating between a minority and majority...

Not sure 317 would be enough for Johnson to sustain now the DUP are hostile...(Minority Govt with these bunch of ultra right wing planks wouldn't last long)..Lib Dems could go in with them again but they can right off the Election after that so I'm not sure that will ride..

Hard to see how Labour's Brexit positioning gets them a chip in the game....Poorly handled...

Not sure what I see happening.......Hopefully a ton of tactical voting..

Corbyn is crap but I will be darned if I want a mysogynistic...racist....bigot winning another Election...

I suppose the hope for you Trussman is that Corbyn can whip up the support like he did last time once the campaigning starts and can boost things so that the Tories fall short of a majority s I see no way any other party will want to form a coalition with them.

I'm more interested in stopping the Tories winning a majority than seeing Corbyn in Downing Street....

Rather it was Starmer.....Thornberry etc...But we are where we are..

BUT I prefer Corbyn to Johnson.....Odious creature.

Certainly hope People go with the Party most likely to beat the Tories in their district.

The Tories slide down the polls, and the Brexit Party’s incline, is set to begin.

I do think Labour would make inroads into those numbers quoted above when campaigning began. Everything is Brexit at the moment and they have no position, once Corbyn can get on to austerity and public services... that is where they are stronger.

You're right Corbyn is an odious creature.