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2019 General Election

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Which party will you vote for?

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Total Votes : 58
 

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 30 Oct 2019, 10:40 am

First topic message reminder :

Now it's confirmed for December 12th (pretty much), I thought we should have a shiny new thread for the fourth and final UK GE of this tumultuous decade; a decade which has also included three referendums and four (maybe five) different Prime Ministers.

News this morning that Amber Rudd won't be defending her seat. Oh well.

Opinion polls currently have the Tories in a double digit lead, but it's anticipated to be a lot tighter than that by the time we reach the actual polling day.

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Post by Luke on Mon 11 Nov 2019, 2:46 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:More of a problem this pact for the Lib Dems seat wise....40/50 of their target seats are Tories and most of their defences are against them..

As for Corbyn it's made a tough job even tougher...

Apparently the BBC are in trouble for swapping 2016 rememberance day footage for 2019 to save Boris blushes...They have apologised though it is hard to see how it can be accidental.

Banana Republic type of behaviour..

Corbyn has to shine at these debates...Simple as..

True, but his bonus could be that Boris has it in him to make a gaff. As yesterday, and his comments in northern Ireland have shown. Be interesting to see how they referee (for won't if a better word) these debates. Weather it will be hard-line, or anything goes.
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Mon 11 Nov 2019, 2:53 pm

The head-to-head debate in particular must have a strong moderator. It'll be slur after slur from Johnson, and it's vital that it's not left to Corbyn to call them out.

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 11 Nov 2019, 3:28 pm

Luke wrote:Nigel Farage has now said. The Brexit party will now not stand in the 317 seats that the conservatives won in the last election.
See he's still trying to get into the government without actually being an MP.

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Boris will be delighted. A big swing for them, there.

Will hardly make any difference to the outcome. It's an odd decision, overall. It means the Brexit Party will not be standing in dozens and dozens of Tory safe seats where they didn't have a prayer in any case; but it also means the Brexit Party will be standing in plenty of Labour-held seats that are Lab/Tory marginals e.g. Colne Valley. It would have been much better for the Tories if the Brexit Party announced they were standing down in all marginal Tory target seats.

That said, it's been a very good week for the Tories. They've had heaps of bad press and Labour haven't made any inroads in the polling. Looks like a Tory majority is going to happen.

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Post by Luke on Mon 11 Nov 2019, 3:44 pm

Agree, it does seem a strange decision for the reasons you say. And don't quite understand it. But I see quite a few Brexit party MPs are not at all happy about it.
I'm not sure it will be a majority. Labour won't win because of Scotland being SNP.
But I'm not sure the conservatives will pick up as much as is required.
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Post by Samo on Mon 11 Nov 2019, 3:54 pm

Duty281 wrote:Looks like a Tory majority is going to happen.

I’ll take that bet.

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Post by Soul Requiem on Mon 11 Nov 2019, 4:00 pm

Luke wrote:Agree, it does seem a strange decision for the reasons you say. And don't quite understand it. But I see quite a few Brexit party MPs are not at all happy about it.
I'm not sure it will be a majority. Labour won't win because of Scotland being SNP.
But I'm not sure the conservatives will pick up as much as is required.

Who are they then?

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon 11 Nov 2019, 4:15 pm

Kind of amusing...

Farage is ultra right wing especially with his God awful policies on privatising the UK's NHS.....Which is already being sold off on the quiet....Hundreds of thousands of Americans have no insurance..

While at the moment Johnson has a relative small majority in at least a few of the polls...(Survation...Comres...BMG...)..We have Lib Dem leader Swinson attacking Labour full time....

No offence to the Lib Dems but for heaven sake now is the time to look at ways at keeping this Clown's majority down..

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Post by CaledonianCraig on Mon 11 Nov 2019, 6:09 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Kind of amusing...

Farage is ultra right wing especially with his God awful policies on privatising the UK's NHS.....Which is already being sold off on the quiet....Hundreds of thousands of Americans have no insurance..

While at the moment Johnson has a relative small majority in at least a few of the polls...(Survation...Comres...BMG...)..We have Lib Dem leader Swinson attacking Labour full time....

No offence to the Lib Dems but for heaven sake now is the time to look at ways at keeping this Clown's majority down..

Yes the Lib Dems stance of attack Labour strikes me as dumb. It is Tories that they should be targetting their angst on given that if the Tories get a majority then Brexit will happen and I have not yet ruled out a No Deal Brexit.
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Post by Luke on Mon 11 Nov 2019, 6:11 pm

Soul Requiem wrote:
Luke wrote:Agree, it does seem a strange decision for the reasons you say. And don't quite understand it. But I see quite a few Brexit party MPs are not at all happy about it.
I'm not sure it will be a majority. Labour won't win because of Scotland being SNP.
But I'm not sure the conservatives will pick up as much as is required.

Who are they then?

Robert Wheal, Tim McCullough and someone else who's name escapes me are the main ones at the moment.
Seems strange that they're still running ads about how Boris's deal isn't proper Brexit.
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Post by lostinwales on Mon 11 Nov 2019, 6:56 pm

Pr4wn wrote:He also wouldn't be as bad as Johnson, does that count?

Nobody is as bad as Johnson. It is entirely possible that nobody will ever be as bad as Johnson. Its just that I'd like to think we could ask more of our leaders than being crap but still slightly better than the other guy.

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Post by Soul Requiem on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 8:04 am

Luke wrote:
Soul Requiem wrote:
Luke wrote:Agree, it does seem a strange decision for the reasons you say. And don't quite understand it. But I see quite a few Brexit party MPs are not at all happy about it.
I'm not sure it will be a majority. Labour won't win because of Scotland being SNP.
But I'm not sure the conservatives will pick up as much as is required.

Who are they then?

Robert Wheal, Tim McCullough and someone else who's name escapes me are the main ones at the moment.
Seems strange that they're still running ads about how Boris's deal isn't proper Brexit.

I meant more the fact there are no Brexit party MPs at the moment.

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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 10:14 am

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Kind of amusing...

Farage is ultra right wing especially with his God awful policies on privatising the UK's NHS.....Which is already being sold off on the quiet....Hundreds of thousands of Americans have no insurance..

While at the moment Johnson has a relative small majority in at least a few of the polls...(Survation...Comres...BMG...)..We have Lib Dem leader Swinson attacking Labour full time....

No offence to the Lib Dems but for heaven sake now is the time to look at ways at keeping this Clown's majority down..

I feel the same way about Labour attacks on Lib Dems, I must say.

Did see it noted that this Brexit Party thing matters little. The damage they are likely to do to the Tories is in seats where Conservatives need to beat Labour/LDs and could now lose voters to the B(not n)P.

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Post by Luke on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 11:37 am

Soul Requiem wrote:
Luke wrote:
Soul Requiem wrote:
Luke wrote:Agree, it does seem a strange decision for the reasons you say. And don't quite understand it. But I see quite a few Brexit party MPs are not at all happy about it.
I'm not sure it will be a majority. Labour won't win because of Scotland being SNP.
But I'm not sure the conservatives will pick up as much as is required.

Who are they then?

Robert Wheal, Tim McCullough and someone else who's name escapes me are the main ones at the moment.
Seems strange that they're still running ads about how Boris's deal isn't proper Brexit.

I meant more the fact there are no Brexit party MPs at the moment.

Fair point, and there's even less chance now.
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Post by Luke on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 11:40 am

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Kind of amusing...

Farage is ultra right wing especially with his God awful policies on privatising the UK's NHS.....Which is already being sold off on the quiet....Hundreds of thousands of Americans have no insurance..

While at the moment Johnson has a relative small majority in at least a few of the polls...(Survation...Comres...BMG...)..We have Lib Dem leader Swinson attacking Labour full time....

No offence to the Lib Dems but for heaven sake now is the time to look at ways at keeping this Clown's majority down..

I feel the same way about Labour attacks on Lib Dems, I must say.

Did see it noted that this Brexit Party thing matters little. The damage they are likely to do to the Tories is in seats where Conservatives need to beat Labour/LDs and could now lose voters to the B(not n)P.

That why like duty says it's a strange decision.

Although see the conservatives aren't putting a candidate up for Hartlepool.
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 11:41 am

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Kind of amusing...

Farage is ultra right wing especially with his God awful policies on privatising the UK's NHS.....Which is already being sold off on the quiet....Hundreds of thousands of Americans have no insurance..

While at the moment Johnson has a relative small majority in at least a few of the polls...(Survation...Comres...BMG...)..We have Lib Dem leader Swinson attacking Labour full time....

No offence to the Lib Dems but for heaven sake now is the time to look at ways at keeping this Clown's majority down..

I feel the same way about Labour attacks on Lib Dems, I must say.

Did see it noted that this Brexit Party thing matters little. The damage they are likely to do to the Tories is in seats where Conservatives need to beat Labour/LDs and could now lose voters to the B(not n)P.

It's also likely to push moderate or Remain-minded Tory voters into the arms of the Lib Dems, if they weren't headed that way already. If Farage is on board, that should set off alarm bells.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 11:44 am

A second referendum would be a better way of finding out, but I'm genuinely fascinated to know how many people in the UK still want Brexit. The Tories' success largely depends on it. The mantra of 'let's get Brexit done' will surely only be a winning one if enough people still want that to happen.

Brexit was only ever marginally popular, and I think it's highly unlikely that it's any more popular now in 2019 than it was in 2016.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 11:54 am

Luke wrote:
Dolphin Ziggler wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Kind of amusing...

Farage is ultra right wing especially with his God awful policies on privatising the UK's NHS.....Which is already being sold off on the quiet....Hundreds of thousands of Americans have no insurance..

While at the moment Johnson has a relative small majority in at least a few of the polls...(Survation...Comres...BMG...)..We have Lib Dem leader Swinson attacking Labour full time....

No offence to the Lib Dems but for heaven sake now is the time to look at ways at keeping this Clown's majority down..

I feel the same way about Labour attacks on Lib Dems, I must say.

Did see it noted that this Brexit Party thing matters little. The damage they are likely to do to the Tories is in seats where Conservatives need to beat Labour/LDs and could now lose voters to the B(not n)P.

That why like duty says it's a strange decision.

Although see the conservatives aren't putting a candidate up for Hartlepool.

I believe the Tories are still putting a candidate up in Hartlepool, though said candidate may withdraw before Thursday's deadline. If the Tories were to pull out of Hartlepool, the Brexit Party would have an excellent chance (their only real chance) of winning a Parliamentary seat. That almost certainly won't happen, however.

Labour currently a 5/4 chance in Hartlepool, the Brexit Party 7/4 and the Tories 5/2.

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Post by Afro on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 12:09 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:A second referendum would be a better way of finding out, but I'm genuinely fascinated to know how many people in the UK still want Brexit. The Tories' success largely depends on it. The mantra of 'let's get Brexit done' will surely only be a winning one if enough people still want that to happen.

Brexit was only ever marginally popular, and I think it's highly unlikely that it's any more popular now in 2019 than it was in 2016.

I am too.

I also believe there was also an element of complacency on the remain side that they would walk it and always wonder how much that complacency impacted people not voting. Especially compared to Leave voters. It always feels that those wanting to leave would have been more inclined to vote.
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Post by Soul Requiem on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 12:13 pm

I'd expect Farage to withdraw even more candidates in the coming days.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 12:16 pm

Afro wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:A second referendum would be a better way of finding out, but I'm genuinely fascinated to know how many people in the UK still want Brexit. The Tories' success largely depends on it. The mantra of 'let's get Brexit done' will surely only be a winning one if enough people still want that to happen.

Brexit was only ever marginally popular, and I think it's highly unlikely that it's any more popular now in 2019 than it was in 2016.

I am too.

I also believe there was also an element of complacency on the remain side that they would walk it and always wonder how much that complacency impacted people not voting. Especially compared to Leave voters. It always feels that those wanting to leave would have been more inclined to vote.

I remember someone on a vox pops piece the morning after the referendum saying that they voted Leave as a protest vote and didn't think it had a chance of winning.

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Post by Luke on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 12:19 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Luke wrote:
Dolphin Ziggler wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Kind of amusing...

Farage is ultra right wing especially with his God awful policies on privatising the UK's NHS.....Which is already being sold off on the quiet....Hundreds of thousands of Americans have no insurance..

While at the moment Johnson has a relative small majority in at least a few of the polls...(Survation...Comres...BMG...)..We have Lib Dem leader Swinson attacking Labour full time....

No offence to the Lib Dems but for heaven sake now is the time to look at ways at keeping this Clown's majority down..

I feel the same way about Labour attacks on Lib Dems, I must say.

Did see it noted that this Brexit Party thing matters little. The damage they are likely to do to the Tories is in seats where Conservatives need to beat Labour/LDs and could now lose voters to the B(not n)P.

That why like duty says it's a strange decision.

Although see the conservatives aren't putting a candidate up for Hartlepool.

I believe the Tories are still putting a candidate up in Hartlepool, though said candidate may withdraw before Thursday's deadline. If the Tories were to pull out of Hartlepool, the Brexit Party would have an excellent chance (their only real chance) of winning a Parliamentary seat. That almost certainly won't happen, however.

Labour currently a 5/4 chance in Hartlepool, the Brexit Party 7/4 and the Tories 5/2.

Hartlepool will be an interesting barometer. It voted massively to leave in the referendum, so should anyone but Brexit party/conservative win. Could show the mood of the country. Especially in the north where you would imagine the conservatives have to win a few seats for anything other than a hung parliament.
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Post by CaledonianCraig on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 12:22 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:A second referendum would be a better way of finding out, but I'm genuinely fascinated to know how many people in the UK still want Brexit. The Tories' success largely depends on it. The mantra of 'let's get Brexit done' will surely only be a winning one if enough people still want that to happen.

Brexit was only ever marginally popular, and I think it's highly unlikely that it's any more popular now in 2019 than it was in 2016.

I think there are many now who have resigned to the fact that Brexit is going to happen and just wanted it sorted ASAP. If there really is not an appetite for Brexit you'd have noticed it in the polls and Labour and Lib Dems would be a heck of a lot closer to the Tories in the polls but if anything, in recent weeks, the gap in the polls has widened.
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Post by Afro on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 12:23 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Afro wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:A second referendum would be a better way of finding out, but I'm genuinely fascinated to know how many people in the UK still want Brexit. The Tories' success largely depends on it. The mantra of 'let's get Brexit done' will surely only be a winning one if enough people still want that to happen.

Brexit was only ever marginally popular, and I think it's highly unlikely that it's any more popular now in 2019 than it was in 2016.

I am too.

I also believe there was also an element of complacency on the remain side that they would walk it and always wonder how much that complacency impacted people not voting. Especially compared to Leave voters. It always feels that those wanting to leave would have been more inclined to vote.

I remember someone on a vox pops piece the morning after the referendum saying that they voted Leave as a protest vote and didn't think it had a chance of winning.

See that makes no sense. If Leave had no chance, then what kind of protest is that, as no one would have known about it.
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 12:36 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:A second referendum would be a better way of finding out, but I'm genuinely fascinated to know how many people in the UK still want Brexit. The Tories' success largely depends on it. The mantra of 'let's get Brexit done' will surely only be a winning one if enough people still want that to happen.

Brexit was only ever marginally popular, and I think it's highly unlikely that it's any more popular now in 2019 than it was in 2016.

I think there are many now who have resigned to the fact that Brexit is going to happen and just wanted it sorted ASAP. If there really is not an appetite for Brexit you'd have noticed it in the polls and Labour and Lib Dems would be a heck of a lot closer to the Tories in the polls but if anything, in recent weeks, the gap in the polls has widened.

On the other hand, remain parties won a greater share of the vote in the European parliament elections earlier in the year. So I really have no idea.

EDIT: Actually I think that was only if you counted Labour as a remain party - so that adds to the confusion!

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 1:02 pm

Luke wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Luke wrote:
Dolphin Ziggler wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Kind of amusing...

Farage is ultra right wing especially with his God awful policies on privatising the UK's NHS.....Which is already being sold off on the quiet....Hundreds of thousands of Americans have no insurance..

While at the moment Johnson has a relative small majority in at least a few of the polls...(Survation...Comres...BMG...)..We have Lib Dem leader Swinson attacking Labour full time....

No offence to the Lib Dems but for heaven sake now is the time to look at ways at keeping this Clown's majority down..

I feel the same way about Labour attacks on Lib Dems, I must say.

Did see it noted that this Brexit Party thing matters little. The damage they are likely to do to the Tories is in seats where Conservatives need to beat Labour/LDs and could now lose voters to the B(not n)P.

That why like duty says it's a strange decision.

Although see the conservatives aren't putting a candidate up for Hartlepool.

I believe the Tories are still putting a candidate up in Hartlepool, though said candidate may withdraw before Thursday's deadline. If the Tories were to pull out of Hartlepool, the Brexit Party would have an excellent chance (their only real chance) of winning a Parliamentary seat. That almost certainly won't happen, however.

Labour currently a 5/4 chance in Hartlepool, the Brexit Party 7/4 and the Tories 5/2.

Hartlepool will be an interesting barometer. It voted massively to leave in the referendum, so should anyone but Brexit party/conservative win. Could show the mood of the country. Especially in the north where you would imagine the conservatives have to win a few seats for anything other than a hung parliament.

I think Hartlepool is one of those places, a bit like Barnsley, where the Tories can never win because the electorate is too ingrained against the Tory Party. Even during the glory years of the Tory Party, in 79/83/87, they still couldn't take Hartlepool from Labour.

I think the Brexit Party could win it (because of the high Leave vote you mentioned), however, but only if the Tories completely withdraw (which is very unlikely to happen). I think UKIP could have won Hartlepool in 2015, also, but only if the Tories had withdrawn (which, of course, they didn't).

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Post by superflyweight on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 1:16 pm

Hartlepool does seem like the hellish kind of place that would return a far-right MP representing a party led by an opportunistic racist.

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Post by Luke on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 1:27 pm

I think your right about the Tories for various reasons not getting a chance. Wether they would vote Brexit party is an interesting question. As by and large they are seen as an extension of the Tories, and other than leaving, they haven't got much of a manifesto to push forward for voters. But think your right, if the Tories stood down, they would stand a good chance of gaining the seat.

See Farage is saying that the Tories should stand down for the Brexit party in areas they've never won, meanwhile the Tories are saying he should stand down more MPs. Meanwhile a few of his party are now openly questioning him.

The one thing this election is doing, is just showing what a mess the whole of parliament is. How much self interest and rubbish MPs hold.

To be honest, if there was a non of the above option on the ballot papers, not only would I tick it, but it would win the election hands down in my opinion.
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Post by CaledonianCraig on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 1:35 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
CaledonianCraig wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:A second referendum would be a better way of finding out, but I'm genuinely fascinated to know how many people in the UK still want Brexit. The Tories' success largely depends on it. The mantra of 'let's get Brexit done' will surely only be a winning one if enough people still want that to happen.

Brexit was only ever marginally popular, and I think it's highly unlikely that it's any more popular now in 2019 than it was in 2016.

I think there are many now who have resigned to the fact that Brexit is going to happen and just wanted it sorted ASAP. If there really is not an appetite for Brexit you'd have noticed it in the polls and Labour and Lib Dems would be a heck of a lot closer to the Tories in the polls but if anything, in recent weeks, the gap in the polls has widened.

On the other hand, remain parties won a greater share of the vote in the European parliament elections earlier in the year. So I really have no idea.

EDIT: Actually I think that was only if you counted Labour as a remain party - so that adds to the confusion!

Well the options seem clear enough to me.

Vote Tory if you want a Brexit of Boris's kind - possibly No Deal too.

Vote Labour if you are not sure if you still want Brexit as they'll over another referendum.

Vote Lib Dem if you want Brexit binned.

Like I say Tories look set to win with a majority which would suggest people still want Brexit. It is up to voters outwith Scotland to prove me otherwise.
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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 1:43 pm

Sorted. Did I read it right that the LDs will push through a PR voting system if they were ever to win? Cool, if so, they have my vote regardless of anything else.
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 2:13 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
CaledonianCraig wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:A second referendum would be a better way of finding out, but I'm genuinely fascinated to know how many people in the UK still want Brexit. The Tories' success largely depends on it. The mantra of 'let's get Brexit done' will surely only be a winning one if enough people still want that to happen.

Brexit was only ever marginally popular, and I think it's highly unlikely that it's any more popular now in 2019 than it was in 2016.

I think there are many now who have resigned to the fact that Brexit is going to happen and just wanted it sorted ASAP. If there really is not an appetite for Brexit you'd have noticed it in the polls and Labour and Lib Dems would be a heck of a lot closer to the Tories in the polls but if anything, in recent weeks, the gap in the polls has widened.

On the other hand, remain parties won a greater share of the vote in the European parliament elections earlier in the year. So I really have no idea.

EDIT: Actually I think that was only if you counted Labour as a remain party - so that adds to the confusion!

Well the options seem clear enough to me.

Vote Tory if you want a Brexit of Boris's kind - possibly No Deal too.

Vote Labour if you are not sure if you still want Brexit as they'll over another referendum.

Vote Lib Dem if you want Brexit binned.

Like I say Tories look set to win with a majority which would suggest people still want Brexit. It is up to voters outwith Scotland to prove me otherwise.

Theresa May's Tories were set to win a majority too. Just saying! OK

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Post by CaledonianCraig on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 2:17 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
CaledonianCraig wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
CaledonianCraig wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:A second referendum would be a better way of finding out, but I'm genuinely fascinated to know how many people in the UK still want Brexit. The Tories' success largely depends on it. The mantra of 'let's get Brexit done' will surely only be a winning one if enough people still want that to happen.

Brexit was only ever marginally popular, and I think it's highly unlikely that it's any more popular now in 2019 than it was in 2016.

I think there are many now who have resigned to the fact that Brexit is going to happen and just wanted it sorted ASAP. If there really is not an appetite for Brexit you'd have noticed it in the polls and Labour and Lib Dems would be a heck of a lot closer to the Tories in the polls but if anything, in recent weeks, the gap in the polls has widened.

On the other hand, remain parties won a greater share of the vote in the European parliament elections earlier in the year. So I really have no idea.

EDIT: Actually I think that was only if you counted Labour as a remain party - so that adds to the confusion!

Well the options seem clear enough to me.

Vote Tory if you want a Brexit of Boris's kind - possibly No Deal too.

Vote Labour if you are not sure if you still want Brexit as they'll over another referendum.

Vote Lib Dem if you want Brexit binned.

Like I say Tories look set to win with a majority which would suggest people still want Brexit. It is up to voters outwith Scotland to prove me otherwise.

Theresa May's Tories were set to win a majority too. Just saying! OK

Indeed. However, if I remember correctly Corbyn's Labour had quickly began reeling in the big lead in the polls. That has not happened here and we are two weeks into campaigning.
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 2:30 pm

But it the Lib Dems pull their weight, and with the SNP likely to win more seats, will Labour need to do as well as they did last time?

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Post by Afro on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 2:39 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:But it the Lib Dems pull their weight, and with the SNP likely to win more seats, will Labour need to do as well as they did last time?

I'd like to think is that all it needs is for the Tories, plus anyone who would genuinely form a coalition with them, to get less than half, and the rest could form an alliance.

But given that they couldn't come to an agreement when it was possible for them to trigger a VONC and form a temporary government, I don't hold much hope on them agreeing this time.

The sticking point appeared to be Jeremy Corbyn and given that any non-Tory coalition has to have Labour in it, then it'll be like Groundhog Day
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Post by Duty281 on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 2:48 pm

Luke wrote:I think your right about the Tories for various reasons not getting a chance. Wether they would vote Brexit party is an interesting question. As by and large they are seen as an extension of the Tories, and other than leaving, they haven't got much of a manifesto to push forward for voters. But think your right, if the Tories stood down, they would stand a good chance of gaining the seat.

See Farage is saying that the Tories should stand down for the Brexit party in areas they've never won, meanwhile the Tories are saying he should stand down more MPs. Meanwhile a few of his party are now openly questioning him.

The one thing this election is doing, is just showing what a mess the whole of parliament is. How much self interest and rubbish MPs hold.

To be honest, if there was a non of the above option on the ballot papers, not only would I tick it, but it would win the election hands down in my opinion.

Agreed! thumbsup

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Post by CaledonianCraig on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 2:51 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:But it the Lib Dems pull their weight, and with the SNP likely to win more seats, will Labour need to do as well as they did last time?

To date all polls are suggesting a Tory majority and no surge from Labour. Last time around the polls were already suggesting otherwise.
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 2:53 pm

Afro wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:But it the Lib Dems pull their weight, and with the SNP likely to win more seats, will Labour need to do as well as they did last time?

I'd like to think is that all it needs is for the Tories, plus anyone who would genuinely form a coalition with them, to get less than half, and the rest could form an alliance.

But given that they couldn't come to an agreement when it was possible for them to trigger a VONC and form a temporary government, I don't hold much hope on them agreeing this time.

The sticking point appeared to be Jeremy Corbyn and given that any non-Tory coalition has to have Labour in it, then it'll be like Groundhog Day

This is essentially what Professor John Curtice has said - that if the Tories don't win a working majority, then they won't get to govern, as there'll be no other party willing to go into coalition with them. (This supposes the Brexit Party don't win any seats, I guess.)

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 12 Nov 2019, 8:32 pm

Lib Dem has pulled out in Canterbury to give Labour a free go..

That is the spirit...

Now let's see some more give and take and give these ultra right Clowns a run for their money.

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Post by Soul Requiem on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 8:43 am

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Lib Dem has pulled out in Canterbury to give Labour a free go..

That is the spirit...

Now let's see some more give and take and give these ultra right Clowns a run for their money.

Due to be replaced so a waste of time really.

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Post by dyrewolfe on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 9:05 am

Brexit Party no longer going to contest seats where the Conservatives have a good chance of winning. Farage seems happy that Boris has moved closer to a position on Brexit that is line with his wishes.

So given that they're no longer going for a win / overall majority, I just hope they are able to forge a strong pro-Brexit alliance, against the Lib Dems and whoever they end up doing deals with (Greens, Independents?).

I'm not expecting any party to get an overall majority, (unless there is some serious tactical voting), so we'll likely end up with another coalition government...which in all probability will be the Conservatives + ?, since Corbyn has ruled out a coalition and the Lib Dems are refusing to work with any of the other major parties.

Labour vote is bound to be weakened by their mixed messages on Brexit and the Lib Dems are living in cloud cuckoo land if they seriously think they can get an overall majority, or even a workable coalition with the small parties.

Obviously the Tories are traditionally split on Europe, but most of them seem sold on Boris' re-worked deal, so I think they're in a better position.
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Post by Pr4wn on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 9:10 am

I'm not sure that the Brexit Ltd Party will win any seats at all. Most likely is 0-2 seats. That leaves only one real taker for a coalition with the Tories in the DUP.

Nobody else wants to go near them right now.

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Post by dyrewolfe on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 9:19 am

Pr4wn wrote:I'm not sure that the Brexit Ltd Party will win any seats at all. Most likely is 0-2 seats. That leaves only one real taker for a coalition with the Tories in the DUP.

Nobody else wants to go near them right now.


Think you'll be surprised. There are plenty of voters who are disillusioned with the main parties and who think Parliament have made a complete mockery of the democratic process, regarding respecting the referendum result. Particularly in a lot of traditional northern Labour constituencies.

I doubt anyone expected them to do as well as they did in the European elections. They're still riding a wave of anti-EU sentiment, so I think they'll bag a few seats. Remember UKIP had one decent election while Farage was in charge.

Not saying they will win a lot of seats, but maybe enough to be viable coalition partners.

The Tories are better off dropping the DUP like a hot potato. The new Withdrawal Agreement has rather pissed them off and they'll only make things more difficult anyway.

Bunch of whiny snowflakes. First they complained May's deal put the Good Friday Agreement at risk...now they're complaining about having customs checks on some goods at their mainland border. Just no pleasing some people... Whistle


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Post by Pr4wn on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 9:22 am

Everyone expected them to do as well as they did in the European elections. I certainly did.

UKIP's "decent" election netted them exactly zero seats.

Farage has also shown his true colours by refusing to stand again. He's a coward. He's taken deposits from so many people, then reneged on them standing by stepping aside for the Tories on all those seats. Bet he's still keeping their money though. What a snake.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 9:23 am

Tories currently on course to win a majority, so no need for any coalitions for them at the moment. I do agree, as I mentioned earlier, that if they don't get the majority, no one will go into partnership with them and we'll have either a minority Tory government and another bleedin' GE within a year, or we'll have a long-winded Lab-led coalition which will always be on the verge of collapse.

But currently the support for the Tories is stable around 40% and Labour also stable around 30%, which would be enough for a huge Tory majority (80-120 seats). Whilst you can't expect Johnson to make the same mistakes as May, you could argue that there's still a big LD vote to squeeze if Labour are up to some squeezing.  The Brexit Party were never going for a win of any kind and it'll be highly surprising if they win any seats (and they'll likely amass around 3-4% of the national vote after pulling out of half the seats).

With all the talk of tactical voting, and candidates withdrawing so folk can vote on the principle of the one they dislike slightly less than the other one, FPTP really has to go. It's a farce.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 9:27 am

Pr4wn wrote:He's taken deposits from so many people, then reneged on them standing by stepping aside for the Tories on all those seats. Bet he's still keeping their money though. What a snake.

Eh? The £500 deposit to stand for Parliament goes to the local governmental body, not the political party, and if the candidates withdraw/don't stand then no £500 is sent. And generally the £500 fee is paid by the central party, not out of the candidate's own pocket.

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Post by Pr4wn on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 9:28 am

They're not allowing Johnson to make any mistakes. He's barely allowed to talk to anyone.

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Post by Soul Requiem on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 9:33 am

Duty281 wrote:
Pr4wn wrote:He's taken deposits from so many people, then reneged on them standing by stepping aside for the Tories on all those seats. Bet he's still keeping their money though. What a snake.

Eh? The £500 deposit to stand for Parliament goes to the local governmental body, not the political party, and if the candidates withdraw/don't stand then no £500 is sent. And generally the £500 fee is paid by the central party, not out of the candidate's own pocket.

It's also no different to people wanting Lib Dem and Labour candidates to stand down.

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Post by dyrewolfe on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 9:39 am

Pr4wn wrote:Everyone expected them to do as well as they did in the European elections. I certainly did.

UKIP's "decent" election netted them exactly zero seats.

Farage has also shown his true colours by refusing to stand again. He's a coward. He's taken deposits from so many people, then reneged on them standing by stepping aside for the Tories on all those seats. Bet he's still keeping their money though. What a snake.

Ha! You're really salty about this, aren't you? What did Farage do to upset you so much?

First off, You =/= Everyone.

Nobody with an ounce of common sense expected BP to perform as well as they did. They're a new party that had only been in existence for a few months at the time...yet they got half the seats. Contrast that with the Change / Barcode Party who got zilch. Could just as easily have been BP, but the fact it wasn't shows their message resonates with a lot of voters.

UKIP didn't win any seats, but they scared the Tories into adopting a more right-wing stance. You can argue thats a kind of success in itself.

Finally, can you provide a plausible argument as to why not wanting to stand makes you a coward? Farage has stated multiple times that he has no wish to be an MP. He has served as an MEP for over 20 years. He's been involved in politics for a good deal of his life and has said he's looking to wind down his active involvement. He's already retired once and only came back to try and ensure we get a Brexit thats not just in name only.

If anything, its a smart move to simply support new / younger candidates. He can also continue to influence and shape policy behind the scenes.

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Post by Pr4wn on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 9:42 am

dyrewolfe wrote:
Pr4wn wrote:Everyone expected them to do as well as they did in the European elections. I certainly did.

UKIP's "decent" election netted them exactly zero seats.

Farage has also shown his true colours by refusing to stand again. He's a coward. He's taken deposits from so many people, then reneged on them standing by stepping aside for the Tories on all those seats. Bet he's still keeping their money though. What a snake.

Ha! You're really salty about this, aren't you? What did Farage do to upset you so much?

First off, You =/= Everyone.

Nobody with an ounce of common sense expected BP to perform as well as they did. They're a new party that had only been in existence for a few months at the time...yet they got half the seats. Contrast that with the Change / Barcode Party who got zilch. Could just as easily have been BP, but the fact it wasn't shows their message resonates with a lot of voters.

UKIP didn't win any seats, but they scared the Tories into adopting a more right-wing stance. You can argue thats a kind of success in itself.

Finally, can you provide a plausible argument as to why not wanting to stand makes you a coward? Farage has stated multiple times that he has no wish to be an MP. He has served as an MEP for over 20 years. He's been involved in politics for a good deal of his life and has said he's looking to wind down his active involvement. He's already retired once and only came back to try and ensure we get a Brexit thats not just in name only.

If anything, its a smart move to simply support new / younger candidates. He can also continue to influence and shape policy behind the scenes.


You could, but that would be silly. What was their aim before the election? They didn't win any seats, so that's a failure.

As for the latter part of your post, if you believe that then you'll believe anything.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 9:50 am

Douglas Carswell would be most upset to hear UKIP didn't win any seats in 2015. Very Happy

I'm not sure why not standing makes Farage a coward, either. He's still campaigning firmly in the public limelight and leading a political party into a GE, which is braver than bashing away on a keyboard. Nicola Sturgeon is doing the same thing - is she a coward too? Frankly, any accusations that any political campaigner is a coward is well off the mark.

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Post by superflyweight on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 9:53 am

dyrewolfe wrote:
Pr4wn wrote:Everyone expected them to do as well as they did in the European elections. I certainly did.

UKIP's "decent" election netted them exactly zero seats.

Farage has also shown his true colours by refusing to stand again. He's a coward. He's taken deposits from so many people, then reneged on them standing by stepping aside for the Tories on all those seats. Bet he's still keeping their money though. What a snake.

Ha! You're really salty about this, aren't you? What did Farage do to upset you so much?

First off, You =/= Everyone.

Nobody with an ounce of common sense expected BP to perform as well as they did. They're a new party that had only been in existence for a few months at the time...yet they got half the seats. Contrast that with the Change / Barcode Party who got zilch. Could just as easily have been BP, but the fact it wasn't shows their message resonates with a lot of voters.

UKIP didn't win any seats, but they scared the Tories into adopting a more right-wing stance. You can argue thats a kind of success in itself.

Finally, can you provide a plausible argument as to why not wanting to stand makes you a coward? Farage has stated multiple times that he has no wish to be an MP. He has served as an MEP for over 20 years. He's been involved in politics for a good deal of his life and has said he's looking to wind down his active involvement. He's already retired once and only came back to try and ensure we get a Brexit thats not just in name only.

If anything, its a smart move to simply support new / younger candidates. He can also continue to influence and shape policy behind the scenes.


Racism, lying, surviving that plane crash... I could go on.

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