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2019 General Election

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:49 pm

First topic message reminder :

The key questions for me:

How many Leave voters still want Brexit;

Of those who do, how many put Brexit before all else;

What damage the Brexit party will do the the Conservatives' hopes of taking Labour leave seats.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:39 pm

Lib Dems have run the worst campaign of all the major parties. Swinson showed astonishing arrogance and hubris in running a presidential style campaign (‘Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats’ and ‘Prime Minister in waiting’) and her favourability ratings have plummeted, along with the fortunes of her party.

If the SNP take her seat (it’s a very tight battle; SNP 15/8) it will be a fantastic end to Swinson’s leadership of the LDs.

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Post by lostinwales on Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:41 pm

Soul Requiem wrote:
lostinwales wrote:Lots of question marks over the polling this time around, not least because of the high number of voter registrations. Assuming they actually vote there could be another 2-3million votes that are unlikely to appear in these poll.

I don't see it making much difference to the polls, you only get asked if you're going to vote and who for so registration doesn't come into it. That number does also include people who have voted before but have moved address, it doesn't differentiate between new and old voters in that sense.

I could well be wrong but the people being polled will be on existing lists and are contacted via landlines only. It should not be important but Yougov is run by a Tory minister and another former senior Conservative. (And while we are at it the company dealing with postal votes is run by Peter Lilley). What this means in practice is that I would expect the poll that actually matters to be different. Maybe not by much but it doesn't have to be, thanks to FPTP.

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Post by lostinwales on Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:42 pm

super_realist wrote:Lib Dems have shot their bolt Lostinwales. They gained a few MP's through defections, but overall that number is forecasted to go down.
Swinson is just too annoying.

Could well be. But the two alternatives are so utterly appalling that I need something to hope for.

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Post by Soul Requiem on Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:46 pm

lostinwales wrote:
Soul Requiem wrote:
lostinwales wrote:Lots of question marks over the polling this time around, not least because of the high number of voter registrations. Assuming they actually vote there could be another 2-3million votes that are unlikely to appear in these poll.

I don't see it making much difference to the polls, you only get asked if you're going to vote and who for so registration doesn't come into it. That number does also include people who have voted before but have moved address, it doesn't differentiate between new and old voters in that sense.

I could well be wrong but the people being polled will be on existing lists and are contacted via landlines only. It should not be important but Yougov is run by a Tory minister and another former senior Conservative. (And while we are at it the company dealing with postal votes is run by Peter Lilley). What this means in practice is that I would expect the poll that actually matters to be different. Maybe not by much but it doesn't have to be, thanks to FPTP.

The bulk of polling is done online rather than by phone nowadays.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:46 pm

lostinwales wrote:
Soul Requiem wrote:
lostinwales wrote:Lots of question marks over the polling this time around, not least because of the high number of voter registrations. Assuming they actually vote there could be another 2-3million votes that are unlikely to appear in these poll.

I don't see it making much difference to the polls, you only get asked if you're going to vote and who for so registration doesn't come into it. That number does also include people who have voted before but have moved address, it doesn't differentiate between new and old voters in that sense.

I could well be wrong but the people being polled will be on existing lists and are contacted via landlines only. It should not be important but Yougov is run by a Tory minister and another former senior Conservative. (And while we are at it the company dealing with postal votes is run by Peter Lilley). What this means in practice is that I would expect the poll that actually matters to be different. Maybe not by much but it doesn't have to be, thanks to FPTP.

A lot of polling companies also do online surveys now, not just through landlines. You’re right, it isn’t important who YouGov is run by. All postal votes that come in are seen and watched by candidates and their agents and some supporters at the count, so there won’t be any impropriety...and if there were,
I wouldn’t be looking at the Tory Party for it!

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Post by MrInvisible on Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:48 pm

Just to provide a bit of balance to what you read in mainstream media most of the time, here's an election message from the Jewish community:

https://jewssupportinglabour.wordpress.com/2019/12/09/we-urge-all-our-fellow-citizens-jewish-and-non-jewish-to-vote-labour-on-12th-december/

I'm sure someone will come on and say 'wait, they don't represent the views of all Jewish folk' and indeed that is the case but neither do Tory-supporting Rabbis.

I also found a list of the number of times Corbyn has fought against anti-semitism during his political career - will try and dig it out - dates all the way back to 1977.

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Post by Soul Requiem on Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:50 pm

MrInvisible wrote:Just to provide a bit of balance to what you read in mainstream media most of the time, here's an election message from the Jewish community:

https://jewssupportinglabour.wordpress.com/2019/12/09/we-urge-all-our-fellow-citizens-jewish-and-non-jewish-to-vote-labour-on-12th-december/

I'm sure someone will come on and say 'wait, they don't represent the views of all Jewish folk' and indeed that is the case but neither do Tory-supporting Rabbis.

I also found a list of the number of times Corbyn has fought against anti-semitism during his political career - will try and dig it out - dates all the way back to 1977.

If my neighbour is subjected to racist abuse but I'm not are you suggesting my opinion on the matter is equal?

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Post by Afro on Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:51 pm

lostinwales wrote:
Soul Requiem wrote:
lostinwales wrote:Lots of question marks over the polling this time around, not least because of the high number of voter registrations. Assuming they actually vote there could be another 2-3million votes that are unlikely to appear in these poll.

I don't see it making much difference to the polls, you only get asked if you're going to vote and who for so registration doesn't come into it. That number does also include people who have voted before but have moved address, it doesn't differentiate between new and old voters in that sense.

I could well be wrong but the people being polled will be on existing lists and are contacted via landlines only. It should not be important but Yougov is run by a Tory minister and another former senior Conservative. (And while we are at it the company dealing with postal votes is run by Peter Lilley). What this means in practice is that I would expect the poll that actually matters to be different. Maybe not by much but it doesn't have to be, thanks to FPTP.

I have mentioned on here previously that I have read reports from respected political experts, saying that they feel polls this time around will be less reliable and shouldn't have too much weight on them. It was the very reasons given that the sample of the population used in the polls is potentially less representative of the general population.

It didn't say to ignore them, but that they wouldn't rely on them in the way of previous elections
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Post by Duty281 on Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:56 pm

MrInvisible wrote:Just to provide a bit of balance to what you read in mainstream media most of the time, here's an election message from the Jewish community:

https://jewssupportinglabour.wordpress.com/2019/12/09/we-urge-all-our-fellow-citizens-jewish-and-non-jewish-to-vote-labour-on-12th-december/

I'm sure someone will come on and say 'wait, they don't represent the views of all Jewish folk' and indeed that is the case but neither do Tory-supporting Rabbis.

I also found a list of the number of times Corbyn has fought against anti-semitism during his political career - will try and dig it out - dates all the way back to 1977.

Meanwhile, 85% of British Jews think Corbyn is anti-Semitic and the Jewish Chronicle says:

“Barely a day has gone by since Mr Corbyn became Labour leader when an example of antisemitism within his party has not emerged — and despite his claims to have dealt with it, today’s Labour Party remains an institutionally antisemitic party, under investigation by the Equality and Human Rights Commission.“

https://www.thejc.com/comment/leaders/we-will-never-endorse-anyone-in-an-election-but-we-have-a-view-over-who-should-not-be-prime-minist-1.493984

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Post by Soul Requiem on Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:00 pm

If Margaret Hodge says there's a problem with anti-Semitism within the Labour party I'm inclined to believe her as I am with Baroness Warsi and Islamaphobia within the Conservatives. Very easy to excuse things that haven't directly affected you.

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Post by MrInvisible on Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:09 pm

Maybe the Jewish Labour supporters who signed the letter I refer to (which surprisingly mainstream media is uninterested in) are capable of seeing the bigger picture rather than the weaponised identity politics others are engaging in.

Corbyn has done more to fight anti-semitism than just about all his critics, but still gets tarred with the anti-semitism brush. Media weren't so bothered about anti-semitism when they were laughing at Ed Miliband eating a bacon sandwich back in 2015...

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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:17 pm

I would vote Corbyn over Johnson any day of the week, but Corbyn is implicated in this and I look forward to the day I no longer see his face.

People don’t seem to be rushing to defend muslims, LGBT+, migrants, children or the disabled from Boris, but I don’t actually think the sins of one should excuse those of another.

Id quite like all three at the top of the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems to be gone very soon, but I suspect I won’t get my wish.

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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:19 pm

As ever, I also find party loyalty to be very bizarre. People who vote one way because they generally always have are infuriating. Every election should be a new choice.

Blind leading the blind

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Post by lostinwales on Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:21 pm

MrInvisible wrote:Maybe the Jewish Labour supporters who signed the letter I refer to (which surprisingly mainstream media is uninterested in) are capable of seeing the bigger picture rather than the weaponised identity politics others are engaging in.

Corbyn has done more to fight anti-semitism than just about all his critics, but still gets tarred with the anti-semitism brush.  Media weren't so bothered about anti-semitism when they were laughing at Ed Miliband eating a bacon sandwich back in 2015...

The JLM report from a couple of weeks ago plus general coverage gives the impression that there is a problem, but that it is either ignored (not considered as...) or swept under the carpet. There is no question that there are similar issues inside the Conservative party, what's left of it. But they haven't delayed dumping the most significant and most visible idiots barring the PM- although they do seem to consider abusing immigrants and 'the undeserving poor' as normal behaviour. Labour have dumped the likes of Chris Williamson but it took an age, and their internal disciplinary procedures have been woeful.

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Post by Soul Requiem on Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:32 pm

MrInvisible wrote:Maybe the Jewish Labour supporters who signed the letter I refer to (which surprisingly mainstream media is uninterested in) are capable of seeing the bigger picture rather than the weaponised identity politics others are engaging in.

Corbyn has done more to fight anti-semitism than just about all his critics, but still gets tarred with the anti-semitism brush.  Media weren't so bothered about anti-semitism when they were laughing at Ed Miliband eating a bacon sandwich back in 2015...


The bigger picture that there is in fact an issue?

People can vote for who they want, that's democracy but seeing people on all sides trying to defend the indefensible is like the cult of personality in the old Soviet union.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:46 pm

MrInvisible wrote:Maybe the Jewish Labour supporters who signed the letter I refer to (which surprisingly mainstream media is uninterested in) are capable of seeing the bigger picture rather than the weaponised identity politics others are engaging in.

Damn, if only the majority of British Jews were capable enough and enlightened enough to see the bigger picture.

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Post by lostinwales on Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:16 pm

And of course the Tories have all but got away with not publishing the Russia report.

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Post by Guest on Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:31 pm

Luke wrote:
Soul Requiem wrote:Looks like a comfortable Tory majority going by the polls to me, at this point in 2017 the lead was down to a few points and pointing towards a hung parliament.

If you believe Corbyn is better than anyone you deserve what's coming to you.

According to the polls.
.the 2010 election was going to be a conservative majority.
2015, hung parliament.
2016, we were going to remain in the EU
2017, conservatives were going to have a majority.

I really don't believe anything the polls say.
They may be right, but they may just as easily be wrong.

I'm posting this again as I highly, highly recommend everyone read it - vital info on both Brexit and how modern polling works: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

Like you, I'm not exactly fully behind the idea that the polling is going to be accurate. I would expect a much smaller majority - like 5 seats or so - than is being predicted by the polling, if there is a majority at all. I can see why Labour will lose voters and seats this time around compared to 2017, but the reality is, public polling has never been more politicised. The private polling and use of data is the most interesting element of the last few years.

I found it interesting when Farage was mentioning 'they don't know what we know' when Rees-Mogg-female and the others defected last week. A pretty clear indication that, to me, Farage felt/knew that the Brexit Party can and will split the vote well enough for the Tories to take power. The issue, of course, is that he is wedded to this party and the far right where the others are not - he's done his job in the North, and the Tories have in turn played them by effectively swallowing the more palatable members of their party without damaging their 'brand'. Farage got played, basically, in order to not create another UKIP that would siphon off votes from the Tories in the medium to long term - but the salient point, is, Farage came out in the media and more than hinted at the fact that he 'knew something' that his prospective candidates didn't.

Recent history is pretty telling about what that something might be based on what happened in 2016.

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Post by Guest on Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:52 pm

Duty281 wrote:Lib Dems have run the worst campaign of all the major parties. Swinson showed astonishing arrogance and hubris in running a presidential style campaign (‘Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats’ and ‘Prime Minister in waiting’) and her favourability ratings have plummeted, along with the fortunes of her party.

If the SNP take her seat (it’s a very tight battle; SNP 15/8) it will be a fantastic end to Swinson’s leadership of the LDs.

Agree, the hubris is incredible. If she were a man she would be ridiculed; because she's a woman, the performative fakery is seen (by a tiny percentage, her lack of approval reflects peoples' actual opinions of her) as a bad form of therapy. Think we've had enough people in politics using it to 'prove' they're strong and competent with Clinton and Trump in spite of their actual appeal. Don't need it being the modus operandi in this country as well. Frontline politics isn't the place for therapy based on identity, and far, far too many left-leaning women don't seem to get this - it's why May slowly made her way in to power with no great bravado, and why the Tories have had two female PMs where the 'left' has had none. Amping up what works with the base gains you literally nothing - it detracts from casual voters. If you want to be praised and validated, don't do it in politics...goes for men and women at the moment, for sure, but it needs stating about the latter as it's a fundamental failing of many of the women candidates at the heart of politics (Sturgeon aside).

Thing is, she's not dreadful when she talks on issues. It's when she's grandstanding and trying to be something she's not. The accent, the mannerisms...it all feels like a third rate, out of date impression of Blair. It helps that she has the freedom to distance herself from the Clegg era and not have to defend that legacy - although the voters haven't forgotten - but there's just way too much guff and bravado. She comes across as someone with limited life experience who has been bred through the system of local government (head girl - student rep - PR company - councillor - Lib Dem leader). Her 'mission' is to win votes and re-establish the Lid Dems on a national level; in reality, she's going to help pave the way for Brexit.

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Post by Guest on Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:57 pm

Soul Requiem wrote:If Margaret Hodge says there's a problem with anti-Semitism within the Labour party I'm inclined to believe her as I am with Baroness Warsi and Islamaphobia within the Conservatives. Very easy to excuse things that haven't directly affected you.

I wouldn't put those two in the same category, jeez. Warsi is a nasty piece of work and puts her identitiy/heritage above party and, ofc, country. Can't accuse Hodge of doing that in the slightest. Warsi has some unsavoury links to antisemitics Islamic single-issue charities and pressure groups that, in turn, have links to international extremism. Really, really wouldn't treat those two equally - and I'd say Labour's antisemitism is more pernicious and institutional than the Tories' Islamophobia, which I can't really believe I'm defending, but there we go, it's true to my experiences.

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Post by MrInvisible on Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:43 pm

At risk of going off on a slight tangent I don't have much respect for Hodge given her role in covering up an awful scandal implicating a London local authority in the 1980s.

Many victims suffered needlessly due to her actions and in my opinion she has no moral authority for lecturing others.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/with-a-past-like-hers-margaret-hodge-might-show-a-bit-more-humility-10098871.html
https://theukdatabase.net/councillorspolitical-party-affiliated/westminster-scandal-114-secret-files-on-bad person-cases-missing/more-than-10-politicians-on-list-held-by-police-investigating-westminster-bad person-ring/the-civil-servant-in-the-home-offices-pie-funding-inquiry-and-his-academic-articles-on-boy-love/p-i-e/margaret-hodge-childrens-homes-abuse-connections-to-p-i-e/



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Post by Soul Requiem on Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:49 pm

Person speaks out on anti-Semitism, attack the person instead of the case in point thumbsup

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Post by lostinwales on Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:08 pm

MrInvisible wrote:At risk of going off on a slight tangent I don't have much respect for Hodge given her role in covering up an awful scandal implicating a London local authority in the 1980s.

Many victims suffered needlessly due to her actions and in my opinion she has no moral authority for lecturing others.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/with-a-past-like-hers-margaret-hodge-might-show-a-bit-more-humility-10098871.html
https://theukdatabase.net/councillorspolitical-party-affiliated/westminster-scandal-114-secret-files-on-bad person-cases-missing/more-than-10-politicians-on-list-held-by-police-investigating-westminster-bad person-ring/the-civil-servant-in-the-home-offices-pie-funding-inquiry-and-his-academic-articles-on-boy-love/p-i-e/margaret-hodge-childrens-homes-abuse-connections-to-p-i-e/



Yeah well we all know who the local MP was as well....

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Post by MrInvisible on Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:15 pm

All the mud being slung at Corbyn over anti-semitism earlier this month - and turns out he was the only party leader to call this rabbi who was victim of anti-semitism recently.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/dec/02/police-criticised-response-attack-rabbi-in-north-london

Back to Hodge, she is very personal with her attacks on Corbyn, personally accusing him of being anti-semitic himself which is a slur pretty below the belt and inaccurate given his record of doing more to fight anti-semitism than most others in politics.

Anyone who is genuinely worried about the scourge of anti-semitism in society will be disappointed when they see the issue drop down the agenda when the media decide they don't want to be use it as a weapon against Labour. How many people jumping on the bandwagon (Ivan Lewis, Ian Austin, etc) really care about it that much other than a stick to beat Corbyn with? Its worth reading John Bercow's considered take on the issue.

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Post by Guest on Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:39 pm

You have no idea what Corbyn is like behind closed doors. I'd imagine her personal experiences of him are based on the reality of his character, rather than his ideological crusades. It's easy to be righteous on a grand sale - less so when doing to ugly, difficult work of compromise. There is, quite literally, an intellectual antisemitism on the far left that sees Jewish people with the controllers of the global economic system i.e. capitalism and the state of Israel as totally illegitimate. That in turn, inevitably, turns in to a good/bad, black/white binary among members, and I, personally, have witnessed brazen antisemitism among Labour and Labour-supporting organisations. I don't doubt Hodge has as well, hence her opinion of Corbyn.

Of course it's amped up by the media. That's the point, it's an election/we've been in constant election mode since 2015ish. Doesn't mean that the issue isn't real and valid, and that Corbyn represents something much more sinister that's grown in the Labour party since New Labour's collapse.

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Post by MrInvisible on Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:50 pm

From what I've seen of the anti-semitism issue, it appears former Labour MP Luciana Berger experienced some of the worse of it. Worth pointing out though that despite the (admittedly awful) anti-semitism she experienced within her local Labour party back when she was the Liverpool Wavertree MP, the person who was charged with actual anti-semitic threats against her was not a Labour supporter and actually someone with far-right views.

I'm pointing this stuff out not to deny the problem that has unfortunately existed in Labour, but to provide context. Labour acknowledges they should have acted quicker but it is a huge (and in my opinion completely unjustified) jump to accuse Corbyn himself of being anti-semitic.

Here's what John Bercow himself said:

All I would say is that, yes, it is an issue and it needs to be addressed, but I myself have never experienced anti-Semitism from a member of the Labour Party. Point two, though there is a big issue and it has to be addressed, I do not myself believe that Jeremy Corbyn is anti-Semitic. That is my honest view. You haven't asked me explicitly, but you've nevertheless drawn me and I want to make that point. I am not saying that he doesn't have a challenge in his party. It is an issue and it does need to be addressed and I respect those who are very concerned about it, but I don't believe Jeremy Corbyn is anti-Semitic. I've known him for the 22 years I've been in parliament. Even, actually, when I was a right-winger we got on pretty well. He was quite a personable individual.

AC: Well, you probably voted with him more often than he did with the Labour government!

JB: Well, he was certainly a persistent and prolific rebel. He's been very supportive of me and I've never detected so much as a whiff of anti-Semitism.

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Post by Soul Requiem on Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:53 pm

Context? It's just apologism and it stinks.

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Post by Bentyf1 on Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:14 pm

Vote for the many, not the elite bellwhiffs.

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Post by MrInvisible on Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:22 pm

@Soul Requiem, there's a lot of noise and hot air about the issue - I've pointed out a few facts which are conveniently overlooked by most of media who do not provide context.  Like I said before though I'd be surprised if people are still talking about this in media in a few months time even though anti-semitism will still unfortunately exist in society.  Why is it that the media are more interested in the reheated Labour allegations and less interested in the serious attack on a rabbi in North London which only Corbyn out of party leaders bothered to contact the Jewish community to express their concerns about?

Do you accept John Bercow's point or do you think Corbyn is anti-semitic?

Moving on to the election itself, would be interested to see what people's hopes and fears, whatever your political affiliation are on eve of polling day:

Hope: Labour largest party in hung parliament - votes for 16 year olds and EU citizens enacted, 2nd EU referendum held, Labour get the numbers at least to roll back the damaging stealth privatisation of NHS and the wasteful, corrupt free schools and academy programme, and implement some of their progressive agenda.  

Fear: Sizeable Tory majority - lots of new hard-right MPs in their intake and no more Phil Hammond/Ken Clarke/Dominic Grieve sensible figures.  Brexit (no deal or v hard version) unleashes a new supercharged wave of austerity and former Labour heartland areas turn to the far right instead of the left.

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Post by Soul Requiem on Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:24 pm

Dear oh dear.

Its like the kid in school who defends his racism because he knows a boy from India.

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Post by MrInvisible on Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:25 pm

Also, what do people think the 'Portillo' moment of the election will be? I'm going for Iain Duncan Smith losing which I think looks a potential scenario even if Labour have a bad night elsewhere.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:27 pm

Hope - My local Labour MP loses his seat. The Brexit Party win in Barnsley Central. The end of Corbyn and his unpleasant Momentum ilk. Swinson loses and resigns as LD leader. A small majority for the Tories and a period of political stability (haha).

Fear - A nightmare coalition of Lab/SNP/LD/GRN/PLAID with Corbyn as PM. Labour exceeding pitiful expectations and Corbyn staying on as leader. A hung Parliament with the Tories as the largest party which will leave us in the exact same position as six weeks ago.

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Post by Guest on Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:45 pm

Best result would be a hung parliament. Brexit would be a nightmare for this country, it would speed up Britain's decline by 30-40 years and would ravage 2-3 generations in this country almost overnight. The whole fabric of the union and the political system would be torn apart, most of the wealth will be in foreign hands (already is), and Britain would adapt by becoming vastly unequal as a society.

Have to hope, somehow, a minority Tory govt is as bad as it gets.

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Post by Luke on Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:01 pm

Duty281 wrote:Lib Dems have run the worst campaign of all the major parties. Swinson showed astonishing arrogance and hubris in running a presidential style campaign (‘Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats’ and ‘Prime Minister in waiting’) and her favourability ratings have plummeted, along with the fortunes of her party.

If the SNP take her seat (it’s a very tight battle; SNP 15/8) it will be a fantastic end to Swinson’s leadership of the LDs.


And given how many people are fed up with the major parties and where looking for another choice. How they have ran this campaign is shocking. This was a real chance to establish themselves again, and they've wasted it.
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Post by Luke on Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:08 pm

Hope.

Johnson and Swinson lose there seats, Corbyn resigns and we get 3 new leaders who instead of looking for themselves, look to put the country first. And move towards putting us on a much better and stable course to improve people's lives.
Oh and a hung parliament.

Fears.
Conservatives majority, they set about destroying there manifesto. Leading to a major continuance of austerity, f*** up Brexit and leave the country desolate. Leading to a rise if a right wing party having a say in politics like is happening in the rest. off Europe.

Expectation.
That were posting on the general election 2021 thread.
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Post by Soul Requiem on Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:49 pm

Hope

Conservative majority, Brexit is resolved one way or another and the country can move forward. Dennis Skinner losing his seat would be a pleasant little bonus.

Fear

The above doesn't happen and we're economically ravaged by a Labour government.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:52 pm

Still a couple more polls to be released, but the final ones released so far have an average Tory lead of just over 9%*, which is a greater average polling lead for the Tories than the previous three General Elections.

* One poll has the lead as high as 13%, one has it as low as 5%.

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Post by Steffan on Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:53 pm

beninho wrote:Just remember everyone,if you are against brexit (why wouldn't you be?) Make sure you vote tactically.
I'll vote how I want

Getting a bit sick recently of people telling other people how they should vote or how their vote is a wasted one etc.

Pick for the party you identify with and vote for them. That's how democracy works

I'll vote how I want

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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Wed Dec 11, 2019 11:55 pm

I do love how offended people get being told to vote a certain way. You should probably follow around anyone who goes canvassing and tell them to stop.

Hope: No Tory majority. Another referendum.

Fear: Neither of the above. The country is gutted by the idiocy of Brexit. People continue to suffer needlessly thanks to Tory rule.

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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:43 am

Just remember today that when it all starts going wrong, it’s probably the fault of everyone who voted for the SNP, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, Greens, any independents etc etc. It is not ever Jeremy Corbyn’s fault.

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Post by beninho on Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:02 am

Steffan wrote:
beninho wrote:Just remember everyone,if you are against brexit (why wouldn't you be?) Make sure you vote tactically.
I'll vote how I want

Getting a bit sick recently of people telling other people how they should vote or how their vote is a wasted one etc.

Pick for the party you identify with and vote for them. That's how democracy works

I'll vote how I want

Not really though is it. If we had a different system to fptp, tgen maybe every vote would count. Unfortunately in a vast number of areas your vote doesn't count. In mine for instance, I wont vote tory, but they will win by thousands. My vote is irrelevant.

But, in some areas, people need to vote tactically if they are against brexit and the tories. Look at IDS, very close to losing his seat to labour, lib dem nowhere. And Raab in a similar situation with labour nowhere.

If people, in some places, don't vote tactically,then they have to question themselves, if it goes wrong.

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Post by Soul Requiem on Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:06 am

You're assuming people vote only in a negative way instead of positively. Steffan is staunchly pro Welsh independence so only has one option.

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Post by Pr4wn on Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:48 am

Morning all. Remember that the Representation of the People Act forbids anyone from disclosing who you voted for, so please don't do that.

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Post by super_realist on Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:50 am

MrInvisible wrote:All the mud being slung at Corbyn over anti-semitism earlier this month - and turns out he was the only party leader to call this rabbi who was victim of anti-semitism recently.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/dec/02/police-criticised-response-attack-rabbi-in-north-london

Back to Hodge, she is very personal with her attacks on Corbyn, personally accusing him of being anti-semitic himself which is a slur pretty below the belt and inaccurate given his record of doing more to fight anti-semitism than most others in politics.  

Anyone who is genuinely worried about the scourge of anti-semitism in society will be disappointed when they see the issue drop down the agenda when the media decide they don't want to be use it as a weapon against Labour. How many people jumping on the bandwagon (Ivan Lewis, Ian Austin, etc) really care about it that much other than a stick to beat Corbyn with?  Its worth reading John Bercow's considered take on the issue.

Corbyn has written forewords in Anti Semitic publications.

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Post by Soul Requiem on Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:56 am

Pr4wn wrote:Morning all. Remember that the Representation of the People Act forbids anyone from disclosing who you voted for, so please don't do that.

No it doesn't, you can't disclose how OTHER people have voted.

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Post by Guest on Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:03 am

Was gonna say, that didn't seem correct in the slightest. Can see why 606 might not want to deal with that, but it's definitely not illegal, obviously...

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Post by Pr4wn on Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:10 am

Apologies, it's been a long day here. It's best not to talk about it in case you accidentally reveal how someone else voted. So let's just not, if that's ok.

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Post by super_realist on Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:18 am

Soul Requiem wrote:
Pr4wn wrote:Morning all. Remember that the Representation of the People Act forbids anyone from disclosing who you voted for, so please don't do that.

No it doesn't, you can't disclose how OTHER people have voted.

Pretty sure you can volunteer who you vote for provided it's not under duress. You cannot share other people's vote though

It would be illegal for an exit poll, or an MP to retweet your vote, as happened to the awful Dianne Abbott.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/06/08/illegal-post-election-vote-facebook-twitter/


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Post by Samo on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:16 am

The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

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Post by Luke on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:39 am

Samo wrote:The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

Could be along night as I'm expecting quite a few recounts.
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