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2019 General Election

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Mon 09 Dec 2019, 12:49 pm

First topic message reminder :

The key questions for me:

How many Leave voters still want Brexit;

Of those who do, how many put Brexit before all else;

What damage the Brexit party will do the the Conservatives' hopes of taking Labour leave seats.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 9:56 am

Samo wrote:The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

Just to say, because I've seen a few people say it, that we still won't know for sure even then.

Pedant and proud Smile

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 10:18 am

Samo wrote:The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

That’s an outlier of a poll, the average lead for the Tories from all the final polls is around 10%.

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Post by Samo on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 10:22 am

Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

That’s an outlier of a poll, the average lead for the Tories from all the final polls is around 10%.

Bookies have cut the odds from 10/3 to 7/4. Johnson will be starting to sweat a bit.

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Post by CaledonianCraig on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 10:32 am

Dream Result:-

SNP pushing up to 45 to 50 seats and taking seats from the Tories to deprive them of a working majority. A Hung Parliament and BoJo turfed out as absolutely no party will come to his aid.

Nightmare Result:- Tories getting a majority of around 50 and pushing through a different type of Brexit (No Deal Brexit anyone) than initially proposed with the numbers to make it happen.

Either way the SNP will be increasing their seat count.
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Post by super_realist on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 10:38 am

CaledonianCraig wrote:Dream Result:-

SNP pushing up to 45 to 50 seats and taking seats from the Tories to deprive them of a working majority. A Hung Parliament and BoJo turfed out as absolutely no party will come to his aid.

Nightmare Result:- Tories getting a majority of around 50 and pushing through a different type of Brexit (No Deal Brexit anyone) than initially proposed with the numbers to make it happen.

Either way the SNP will be increasing their seat count.

If true shows how many idiots we have in Scotland and/or how awful the other parties are.

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Post by wayne on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 10:42 am

Waited until the day to put my tuppence worth in, I've been eligible to vote for over 50 years, in that time I've only failed to vote on 1 occasion, was on holiday. In that time I've failed to vote Labour on 2 occasions, once I had the misfortune of living in Maidenhead and as Labour had no chance I voted Lib Dem, and 2 years ago I put a large X down the side of the voting paper, as there was no way I wanted Corbin in 10 Downing St, the man voted against Labour Party policy hundreds of times.
I have to say I'm of the persuasion that everyone HAS to vote because of the people who died in order that I could vote (I wish the Australian system was in force here).
Finally for today I shall be doing as I did 2 years ago, it's a travesty that the 2 people who have a chance of living in 10 Downing St are both downright liars, and of the 2 Johnson is the worse, of all the Honourable people that have held that esteemed position, to have either of them as PM horrifies me.
Finally I've seen names bandied about on here as to who should lead the Labour Party after (hopefully) Corbin gets a good kicking today (Thornberry, Starmer, Long Bailey) among others horrify me, the person who would fetch the likes of myself and many others of the Labour Party of the last 50 years would be Yvette Cooper, she used to hammer May when she shadowed her at the Home Office and when she was trying to get her Brexit deal through, and hopefully she would get those Socialist Workers enthusiasts out of my Party.

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Post by super_realist on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 10:46 am

I'm not even sure Corbyn would live long enough to see out a term as leader. He looks like he has an advanced terminal illness.

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Post by McLaren on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 11:11 am

Wayne

Spoiling your ballot paper is completely idiotic. No matter how bad you think the candidates are you must still be able to work out who is the least worse.

Remember how stupid we all thought Americans were for not seeing this in the hillary vs trump election.
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Post by Samo on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 11:16 am

Whilst I appreciate the sentiment of feeling you have to vote because people died to afford you that right, I think its more correct to think people died for your freedom to vote, which also includes the right not to vote if you so wish.

I believe everyone should vote, but I dont think people should be forced to vote.

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Post by bsando on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 11:19 am

I'm expecting Labour to increase their Scotland seats and hopefully do better than 2017 in others. I think SNP support is dropping in Scotland. Natural for any government that has been in power fo a long time really, not necessarily their governance.

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Post by super_realist on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 11:21 am

bsando wrote:I'm expecting Labour to increase their Scotland seats and hopefully do better than 2017 in others. I think SNP support is dropping in Scotland. Natural for any government that has been in power fo a long time really, not necessarily their governance.

I'd rather current Labour and SNP would both drop off.
Labour are done in Scotland. They are not forecast to improve.

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Post by Scottrf on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 11:26 am

wayne wrote:Waited until the day to put my tuppence worth in, I've been eligible to vote for over 50 years, in that time I've only failed to vote on 1 occasion, was on holiday. In that time I've failed to vote Labour on 2 occasions, once I had the misfortune of living in Maidenhead and as Labour had no chance I voted Lib Dem, and 2 years ago I put a large X down the side of the voting paper, as there was no way I wanted Corbin in 10 Downing St, the man voted against Labour Party policy hundreds of times.
I have to say I'm of the persuasion that everyone HAS to vote because of the people who died in order that I could vote (I wish the Australian system was in force here).  
Finally for today I shall be doing as I did 2 years ago, it's a travesty that the 2 people who have a chance of living in 10 Downing St are both downright liars, and of the 2 Johnson is the worse, of all the Honourable people that have held that esteemed position, to have either of them as PM horrifies me.
Finally I've seen names bandied about on here as to who should lead the Labour Party after (hopefully) Corbin gets a good kicking  today (Thornberry, Starmer, Long Bailey) among others horrify me, the person who would fetch the likes of myself and many others of the Labour Party of the last 50 years would be Yvette Cooper, she used to hammer May when she shadowed her at the Home Office and when she was trying to get her Brexit deal through, and hopefully she would get those Socialist Workers enthusiasts out of my Party.

Spoiling your ballot is not voting.

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Post by McLaren on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 11:28 am

Super

I am not an snp fan but surely you would like to see them win seats rather than the tories?
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Post by Duty281 on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 11:28 am

Duty281 wrote:Still a couple more polls to be released, but the final ones released so far have an average Tory lead of just over 9%*, which is a greater average polling lead for the Tories than the previous three General Elections.

* One poll has the lead as high as 13%, one has it as low as 5%.

Final two polls came out as both being 11% Tory leads. It would be a great surprise if the Tories don’t win a majority, with their average polling lead being around the 10% mark (greater than the last three GEs) and no Labour upsurge in the offing.

I think we’ll end up with the Tories getting 340-360 seats, Labour 200-220, Lib Dems somewhere in the teens, SNP in the forties.

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Post by super_realist on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 11:30 am

McLaren wrote:Super

I am not an snp fan but surely you would like to see them win seats rather than the tories?

I'd rather Lib Dems won seats than SNP Mac. As you say, I see them as the least worst option in a sea of scheisse.

The SNP are a disgusting party.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 11:43 am

Duty281 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Still a couple more polls to be released, but the final ones released so far have an average Tory lead of just over 9%*, which is a greater average polling lead for the Tories than the previous three General Elections.

* One poll has the lead as high as 13%, one has it as low as 5%.

Final two polls came out as both being 11% Tory leads. It would be a great surprise if the Tories don’t win a majority, with their average polling lead being around the 10% mark (greater than the last three GEs) and no Labour upsurge in the offing.

I think we’ll end up with the Tories getting 340-360 seats, Labour 200-220, Lib Dems somewhere in the teens, SNP in the forties.

ComRes poll out yesterday had the Conservatives on 41% and Labour on 36%:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-lead-shrinks-savanta-comres-poll-a4311346.html

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Post by CaledonianCraig on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 11:57 am

super_realist wrote:
McLaren wrote:Super

I am not an snp fan but surely you would like to see them win seats rather than the tories?

I'd rather Lib Dems won seats than SNP Mac. As you say, I see them as the least worst option in a sea of scheisse.

The SNP are a disgusting party.

You are clueless.

A disgusting party that introduced free prescriptions for all, free baby boxes for mums, has the NHS as best performing in the UK, has child poverty below the rate of the rest of the UK, have built thousands of affordable houses during their tenure whereas the last unionist party in control of Scotland built less than 50.

The SNP have cemented themselves as Scotland's main party and it will remain that way until Scottish Labour and Scottish Tories wake up and realise how many people in Scotland want independence.
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Post by super_realist on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 12:03 pm

Why is free prescriptions for all a good thing? I can afford to pay. Why give out something which takes money away from the NHS
As for saying its the best performing NHS, hardly a boast in the current state, whilst you should probably watch Andrew Neil rip Sturgeon apart on her NHS record.

SNP are doing great on drugs deaths aren't they? Poverty too. I pay 2k more a year on tax to live in Sturgeons utopia. What's she doing with it?

Last time I checked Scotland didn't want independence. You seem to conveniently avoid how you think Scotland could afford it. Massive national debt, low income tax revenue, no real industry, but hey as long as you get away from those English illegitimate childen aka Pal Joeys all is OK eh?

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Post by Steffan on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 12:04 pm

McLaren wrote:Wayne

Spoiling your ballot paper is completely idiotic

Spoiling your ballot paper is thinking "I showed them what for" but you actually still got up off your backside, walked down in the rain and exercised your right to vote

Hardly anarchy is it...

Personally I would have just stayed in bed or gone down the pub

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Post by CaledonianCraig on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 12:06 pm

super_realist wrote:Why is free prescriptions for all a good thing? I can afford to pay. Why give out something which takes money away from the NHS
As for saying its the best performing NHS, hardly a boast in the current state, whilst you should probably watch Andrew Neil rip Sturgeon apart on her NHS record.

SNP are doing great on drugs deaths aren't they? Poverty too. I pay 2k more a year on tax to live in Sturgeons utopia. What's she doing with it?

Last time I checked Scotland didn't want independence. You seem to conveniently avoid how you think Scotland could afford it. Massive national debt, low income tax revenue, no real industry, but hey as long as you get away from those English illegitimate childen aka Pal Joeys all is OK eh?

picard

You are one hell of a hate-filled person. And clueless to boot.
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 12:07 pm

Steffan wrote:
McLaren wrote:Wayne

Spoiling your ballot paper is completely idiotic

Spoiling your ballot paper is thinking "I showed them what for" but you actually still got up off your backside, walked down in the rain and exercised your right to vote

Not really. You're going into the polling booth, but you're still not voting.


Last edited by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 12:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 12:07 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Still a couple more polls to be released, but the final ones released so far have an average Tory lead of just over 9%*, which is a greater average polling lead for the Tories than the previous three General Elections.

* One poll has the lead as high as 13%, one has it as low as 5%.

Final two polls came out as both being 11% Tory leads. It would be a great surprise if the Tories don’t win a majority, with their average polling lead being around the 10% mark (greater than the last three GEs) and no Labour upsurge in the offing.

I think we’ll end up with the Tories getting 340-360 seats, Labour 200-220, Lib Dems somewhere in the teens, SNP in the forties.

ComRes poll out yesterday had the Conservatives on 41% and Labour on 36%:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-lead-shrinks-savanta-comres-poll-a4311346.html

Indeed, that’s the one I mention as being ‘as low as 5%’ in the original post. There were plenty of polls released yesterday and one today, the final two being Survation and Ipsos Mori (both 11% leads), the average coming out as roughly a 10% Tory lead.

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Post by MrInvisible on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 12:08 pm

So, where will this election be won and lost:

1) Leave Voting Labour heartland areas that Tories have been targeting in Northern England/Midlands - how many traditional Labour voters will turn blue, how many will go to Brexit, and how many will stay at home?

2) Lib Dem recovery - they'll win seats including a couple on big swings, but will it be enough to balance out the Tory gains against Labour?

3) Scottish Tory seats - in 2017 these made all the difference to parliamentary arithmetic - how many can SNP take back?

The level of Remain/Leave/anyone but Johnson/Corbyn tactical voting in all of the above will be key and whether it has been effective or ended up splitting the vote in case of Remain/Lib Dem/Labour (e.g. Kensington).

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Post by McLaren on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 12:09 pm

Wtf is a pal joey?
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Post by Tattie Scones RRN on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 12:11 pm

Super, you need to chill out pal......I've never read such sneering and hatred from anyone on these boards as much as yourself and I include certain Welsh rugby posters.

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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 12:15 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Still a couple more polls to be released, but the final ones released so far have an average Tory lead of just over 9%*, which is a greater average polling lead for the Tories than the previous three General Elections.

* One poll has the lead as high as 13%, one has it as low as 5%.

Final two polls came out as both being 11% Tory leads. It would be a great surprise if the Tories don’t win a majority, with their average polling lead being around the 10% mark (greater than the last three GEs) and no Labour upsurge in the offing.

I think we’ll end up with the Tories getting 340-360 seats, Labour 200-220, Lib Dems somewhere in the teens, SNP in the forties.

ComRes poll out yesterday had the Conservatives on 41% and Labour on 36%:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-lead-shrinks-savanta-comres-poll-a4311346.html

Indeed, that’s the one I mention as being ‘as low as 5%’ in the original post. There were plenty of polls released yesterday and one today, the final two being Survation and Ipsos Mori (both 11% leads), the average coming out as roughly a 10% Tory lead.

OK

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Post by navyblueshorts on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 12:57 pm

wayne wrote:Waited until the day to put my tuppence worth in, I've been eligible to vote for over 50 years, in that time I've only failed to vote on 1 occasion, was on holiday. In that time I've failed to vote Labour on 2 occasions, once I had the misfortune of living in Maidenhead and as Labour had no chance I voted Lib Dem, and 2 years ago I put a large X down the side of the voting paper, as there was no way I wanted Corbin in 10 Downing St, the man voted against Labour Party policy hundreds of times.
I have to say I'm of the persuasion that everyone HAS to vote because of the people who died in order that I could vote (I wish the Australian system was in force here).  
Finally for today I shall be doing as I did 2 years ago, it's a travesty that the 2 people who have a chance of living in 10 Downing St are both downright liars, and of the 2 Johnson is the worse, of all the Honourable people that have held that esteemed position, to have either of them as PM horrifies me.
Finally I've seen names bandied about on here as to who should lead the Labour Party after (hopefully) Corbin gets a good kicking  today (Thornberry, Starmer, Long Bailey) among others horrify me, the person who would fetch the likes of myself and many others of the Labour Party of the last 50 years would be Yvette Cooper, she used to hammer May when she shadowed her at the Home Office and when she was trying to get her Brexit deal through, and hopefully she would get those Socialist Workers enthusiasts out of my Party.
Well put. I'd consider Labour more seriously if Cooper were there. TBH, I'd forgotten about her.
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Post by super_realist on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 1:02 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:
super_realist wrote:Why is free prescriptions for all a good thing? I can afford to pay. Why give out something which takes money away from the NHS
As for saying its the best performing NHS, hardly a boast in the current state, whilst you should probably watch Andrew Neil rip Sturgeon apart on her NHS record.

SNP are doing great on drugs deaths aren't they? Poverty too. I pay 2k more a year on tax to live in Sturgeons utopia. What's she doing with it?

Last time I checked Scotland didn't want independence. You seem to conveniently avoid how you think Scotland could afford it. Massive national debt, low income tax revenue, no real industry, but hey as long as you get away from those English illegitimate childen aka Pal Joeys all is OK eh?

picard

You are one hell of a hate-filled person. And clueless to boot.

Hate? Because I disagree with you and the Shoulder N' Potato party?

I've asked you many times what the best reason you have for Scottish independence and the best you can give me are terrible NHS, wasting money on free prescriptions and bloody baby boxes. Woo hoo. I'm so glad Iive here.

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Post by super_realist on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 1:03 pm

McLaren wrote:Wtf is a pal joey?

It's what this forum puts in if you dare to type bas-tard.

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Post by lostinwales on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 1:03 pm

Steffan wrote:
McLaren wrote:Wayne

Spoiling your ballot paper is completely idiotic

Spoiling your ballot paper is thinking "I showed them what for" but you actually still got up off your backside, walked down in the rain and exercised your right to vote

Hardly anarchy is it...

Personally I would have just stayed in bed  or gone down the pub

I wouldn't advocate spoiling your ballot paper, but the vote is at least counted as 'spoiled'. You could argue that that is more of a statement than not voting at all.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 1:06 pm

Hope: Hope?? I don't see any hope. All I see is a monumental cluster***k ahead. Brexit or a hugely and justifiably angry, disenfranchised Brexiteer half of the UK. Almost certain break up of the UK. Magic Grandad - 'nuff said. The frankly gobsmacking fact that Johnson is deemed suitable to be a politician, at all, and will remain so for some time. FPTP. The ERG. MPs of almost all stripes. I could go on...and on...and on...

Fear: See above.
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Post by Scottrf on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 1:06 pm

lostinwales wrote:
Steffan wrote:
McLaren wrote:Wayne

Spoiling your ballot paper is completely idiotic

Spoiling your ballot paper is thinking "I showed them what for" but you actually still got up off your backside, walked down in the rain and exercised your right to vote

Hardly anarchy is it...

Personally I would have just stayed in bed  or gone down the pub

I wouldn't advocate spoiling your ballot paper, but the vote is at least counted as 'spoiled'. You could argue that that is more of a statement than not voting at all.

It's not a statement. Nobody cares.

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Post by super_realist on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 1:07 pm

Scottrf wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Steffan wrote:
McLaren wrote:Wayne

Spoiling your ballot paper is completely idiotic

Spoiling your ballot paper is thinking "I showed them what for" but you actually still got up off your backside, walked down in the rain and exercised your right to vote

Hardly anarchy is it...

Personally I would have just stayed in bed  or gone down the pub

I wouldn't advocate spoiling your ballot paper, but the vote is at least counted as 'spoiled'. You could argue that that is more of a statement than not voting at all.

It's not a statement. Nobody cares.

To think someone would actually make the effort to go to a polling station to deliberately spoil their paper. What would Saint Greta say?

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 1:28 pm

Duty281 wrote:I think we’ll end up with the Tories getting 340-360 seats, Labour 200-220, Lib Dems somewhere in the teens, SNP in the forties.

Also think there’ll be a high turnout, possibly as high as the low 70s. Plenty of motivation amongst voters in a contest that is up for grabs - sadly the motivation is mostly to keep either Johnson or Corbyn out, not to see someone in.

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Post by super_realist on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 1:43 pm

It's a bit like deciding whether you'd rather be run over by a train on platform 1 or by one from platform 2. Either way the result is terrible.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 1:44 pm

miaow wrote:I'm posting this again as I highly, highly recommend everyone read it - vital info on both Brexit and how modern polling works: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash
...

Many thanks for this. I'd not come across it before. I knew odds and ends re. this sort of thing, but not how insidious and pervasive it appears to be. It's possible to believe some of the tin-foil SecretFly conspiracy stuff off the back of this. Politicians w/ hedge fund links in bed with pollsters and the funds themselves. All to make a killing and damn the rest of us. It's actually quite hard to believe anything will ever improve in light of this.
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Post by navyblueshorts on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 1:47 pm

Scottrf wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Steffan wrote:
McLaren wrote:Wayne

Spoiling your ballot paper is completely idiotic

Spoiling your ballot paper is thinking "I showed them what for" but you actually still got up off your backside, walked down in the rain and exercised your right to vote

Hardly anarchy is it...

Personally I would have just stayed in bed  or gone down the pub

I wouldn't advocate spoiling your ballot paper, but the vote is at least counted as 'spoiled'. You could argue that that is more of a statement than not voting at all.

It's not a statement. Nobody cares.
Maybe, but under our political system now, it's about the only statement one can make. Your vote means sweet FA, even if one congratulates oneself that you voted for the 'winner' in your constituency - in all likelihood, your MP doesn't give a sh*t about you or your concerns.
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Post by Guest on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 1:58 pm

Luke wrote:
Samo wrote:The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

Could be along night as I'm expecting quite a few recounts.

You also have to wonder about the integrity of those counting. Hate to say it but there's never been a more politicised - yet weirdly apathetic - election in this country. The result really does offer dramatically opposing ends depends on the result.

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Post by Guest on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 1:59 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

That’s an outlier of a poll, the average lead for the Tories from all the final polls is around 10%.

Posting this one final time. Public polling is deeply flawed: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 2:08 pm

miaow wrote:
Luke wrote:
Samo wrote:The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

Could be along night as I'm expecting quite a few recounts.

You also have to wonder about the integrity of those counting. Hate to say it but there's never been a more politicised - yet weirdly apathetic - election in this country. The result really does offer dramatically opposing ends depends on the result.

All counters will be watched by representatives of all the political parties standing in that constituency. There will be no funny goings on.

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 2:09 pm

miaow wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

That’s an outlier of a poll, the average lead for the Tories from all the final polls is around 10%.

Posting this one final time. Public polling is deeply flawed: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

I am indeed aware that you think this. If you think we’re in line for a hung Parliament, or even Labour winning the most seats, make your way to the nearest online bookmaker and you will find very attractive prices.

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Post by Afro on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 2:23 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Steffan wrote:
McLaren wrote:Wayne

Spoiling your ballot paper is completely idiotic

Spoiling your ballot paper is thinking "I showed them what for" but you actually still got up off your backside, walked down in the rain and exercised your right to vote

Hardly anarchy is it...

Personally I would have just stayed in bed  or gone down the pub

I wouldn't advocate spoiling your ballot paper, but the vote is at least counted as 'spoiled'. You could argue that that is more of a statement than not voting at all.

It's not a statement. Nobody cares.
Maybe, but under our political system now, it's about the only statement one can make. Your vote means sweet FA, even if one congratulates oneself that you voted for the 'winner' in your constituency - in all likelihood, your MP doesn't give a sh*t about you or your concerns.

We've been here before.

Which is scrutinised more - voter turnout or number of spoilt papers?
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Post by Guest on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 2:31 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
miaow wrote:I'm posting this again as I highly, highly recommend everyone read it - vital info on both Brexit and how modern polling works: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash
...

Many thanks for this. I'd not come across it before. I knew odds and ends re. this sort of thing, but not how insidious and pervasive it appears to be. It's possible to believe some of the tin-foil SecretFly conspiracy stuff off the back of this. Politicians w/ hedge fund links in bed with pollsters and the funds themselves. All to make a killing and damn the rest of us. It's actually quite hard to believe anything will ever improve in light of this.

Ah, glad someone read it.

Yes, hands down, the whole exercise to siphon off the white, working classes by Murdoch, Faraga et al - which has been literally decades in the making - has been financially motivated. Someone like Murdoch has used sport to build trust, going after white, working class men, for the most part. You can see another analogy with Man City and the PR work done by a oligarchy with dreadful human rights is used as an exercise to asset strip and influence Britain. This is what it's all been about, has always been about for people like Farage.

Just think about it. It's insane that Farage - the far right - has been allowed to become the representative of many working class areas in Britain. It's disgraceful. If you're comfortably middle class and bigoted, you say they're racist scum, and just sneer at the poor, uneducated masses with a sense of superiority - the undeserving poor but, someone, the elitist is the one with a sense of righteousness. But that's a sign how utterly dreadful Labour have been - and yes, part of that is manipulation of the media, where Murdoch etc. comes in, and better 'branding' to reflect the reality would have done Labour the world of good.

But Labour's lack of hunger to play that game since Blair, becoming the fringe protest party with a weak, weak man at the helm, is almost everything you need to not happen in the face of social and political turmoil. Frontline politics isn't the place for playing games. It's not twitter or a fashion show, where identity and #representation should be a key concern. Nope, I would happily have a house full of boring, competent, grey haired white men do the job if it meant they were the most competent. Labour has completely and utterly lost its way in the competence stakes and some of the men involved in Labour's cabinet...dear me...Jon Ashworth, Richard Burgon...you can basically smell the weakness and incompetence from them. The Labour Party has done a wonderful job of transitioning from being a party built on representing the urban working classes - you know, the men who needed political representation when they finally had the right to vote - to a PR-obsessed neoliberal ad agency in the 90s, to 'this'...which is Corbyn's band of student politics, single-issue-protest-voters, and professional victims. I'm sick of the left fetishising weakness and 'victimhood' because it's not a deep, genuine, and nuanced care - that's not callous, I, personally, have done my fair share of giving back. I've taught and mentored underpriviliged children, I've volunteered for homeless charities and environmental charities for years, I've helped with immigrant charities as well. But you don't built a political party on that; it's a small component part of a proper, responsible, well thought out party. Corbyn's Labour, to me, seems to never be happier than when playing the victim, or when it gets an opportunity to make a speech showing their weakness. Do something, you idiots. Labour's lack of action and ever-increasing obsession with virtue signalling has already lost the working classes, probably for good in the north of England. The fact that a deeply parisitic far right has become their political home is totally insane. Completely mad. How are Labour so bad that this has happened? The easy answer is 'they're just a bunch of bigots'. Pretty clear that's not the case.

Have the Tories ever been in a more dreadful governmental state than the last 3-4 years? And yet they're about to win a majority? Absolutely disagrace.

And yeah, the consequences will be financial turmoil, with some people getting very rich. Brexit is just the beginning, but if it happens, shorting the pound will almost certainly be just the beginning as well. No foil hats needed for that.

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Post by Guest on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 2:32 pm

Duty281 wrote:
miaow wrote:
Luke wrote:
Samo wrote:The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

Could be along night as I'm expecting quite a few recounts.

You also have to wonder about the integrity of those counting. Hate to say it but there's never been a more politicised - yet weirdly apathetic - election in this country. The result really does offer dramatically opposing ends depends on the result.

All counters will be watched by representatives of all the political parties standing in that constituency. There will be no funny goings on.

That's the theory, but it absolutely happens. Goes with the territory of the system.

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Post by Pr4wn on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 2:33 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Steffan wrote:
McLaren wrote:Wayne

Spoiling your ballot paper is completely idiotic

Spoiling your ballot paper is thinking "I showed them what for" but you actually still got up off your backside, walked down in the rain and exercised your right to vote

Hardly anarchy is it...

Personally I would have just stayed in bed  or gone down the pub

I wouldn't advocate spoiling your ballot paper, but the vote is at least counted as 'spoiled'. You could argue that that is more of a statement than not voting at all.

It's not a statement. Nobody cares.
Maybe, but under our political system now, it's about the only statement one can make. Your vote means sweet FA, even if one congratulates oneself that you voted for the 'winner' in your constituency - in all likelihood, your MP doesn't give a sh*t about you or your concerns.

Rubbish.

Like I said earlier, it's a cop-out. If you don't like any of the options in your constituency/party then get up off your @rse and do something about it. Join the party, start campaigning, become a candidate even. If you spoil your ballot, you don't have a leg to stand on when complaining about any of the fallout that comes after the election. You refused to take part in any meaningful way, instead just complaining that none of the choices were up to your standards while simultaneously refusing to actually do anything about it.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 2:34 pm

Afro wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Steffan wrote:
McLaren wrote:Wayne

Spoiling your ballot paper is completely idiotic

Spoiling your ballot paper is thinking "I showed them what for" but you actually still got up off your backside, walked down in the rain and exercised your right to vote

Hardly anarchy is it...

Personally I would have just stayed in bed  or gone down the pub

I wouldn't advocate spoiling your ballot paper, but the vote is at least counted as 'spoiled'. You could argue that that is more of a statement than not voting at all.

It's not a statement. Nobody cares.
Maybe, but under our political system now, it's about the only statement one can make. Your vote means sweet FA, even if one congratulates oneself that you voted for the 'winner' in your constituency - in all likelihood, your MP doesn't give a sh*t about you or your concerns.

We've been here before.

Which is scrutinised more - voter turnout or number of spoilt papers?
Fair point. For me, not really the main thrust of what I was trying to say though.
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Post by Guest on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 2:41 pm

Duty281 wrote:
miaow wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

That’s an outlier of a poll, the average lead for the Tories from all the final polls is around 10%.

Posting this one final time. Public polling is deeply flawed: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

I am indeed aware that you think this. If you think we’re in line for a hung Parliament, or even Labour winning the most seats, make your way to the nearest online bookmaker and you will find very attractive prices.

I have no clue what the result will be tbh. But recent history shows that polling is now pretty flawed, and that's my basis for scepticism. I'm not a betting man so it's neither here nor there for me what the odds are.

I would say Farage gave the biggest clue about his access to private polling data when he had to deal with defections, but the Brexit Party vote has been dropping at a rate of knots, and is unlikely to be much better than UKIP were 2 years ago by the looks of things.

More than any other, it seems this election will hinge on marginals, and I haven't done nearly enough research on those marginals - nor do any of us have access to the data - that would give us an indication where this election might be going.

If I were to guess - not bet - I would say a majority of less than 10 will be the likely result for the Tories. But then other than vote splitting, I fail to see how this election will be vastly diferent to 2017. The student population was mobilised by the idea of no debt, but then voters also went heavily in to the two party system. Again, it appears that's going to be the case, with only minor improvement for the Lib Dems and a far right party in the Brexit Party. Northern Ireland might have something to say and could be really interesting, and potentially decisive, and is definitely an area of the country that is getting overlooked and undercovered in all of this. There appears to be no way back for the Tories forming a minority government or a coalition - unless, somehow, Swinson does a Clegg... - so it hinges on their ability to win enough seats in England, really, while holding on to the ones they have in Wales (can't think of any they might take in Wales that they currently don't have).

The polls have fluctuated quite sizeably yet I feel we're living in a time where almost no-one will have changed their mind on who to vote for from 6 months ago. The election campaign is unlikely to have won or lost too many people - everyone is constantly subjected to propaganda on TV and their echo chambers. So turnout will be the big one. Voter reg is good, I believe, and if enough young people vote, then there's a real chance that Labour really do succeed to repeat 2017, shock the polls, and prevent a Tory majority.

Honestly, I dont think any of us have a clue what's going to happen, and I'd back the exit polls suggesting a hung parliament or too close to call to reflect that. I might be wildly wrong, who knows.

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 2:46 pm

miaow wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
miaow wrote:
Luke wrote:
Samo wrote:The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

Could be along night as I'm expecting quite a few recounts.

You also have to wonder about the integrity of those counting. Hate to say it but there's never been a more politicised - yet weirdly apathetic - election in this country. The result really does offer dramatically opposing ends depends on the result.

All counters will be watched by representatives of all the political parties standing in that constituency. There will be no funny goings on.

That's the theory, but it absolutely happens. Goes with the territory of the system.

The theory and the reality. I’ve attended about two dozen counts in my life (including one for the most polarised election of them all, the EU referendum) and this is absolutely what happens. I have no doubts about the integrity of the counting staff at elections or the capacity of observers to pick up the occasional error.

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Post by Guest on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 2:48 pm

Cheating happens, Duty, even if you, personally, don't see it. There's more motivation for partisan behaviour than ever before.

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 12 Dec 2019, 2:53 pm

miaow wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
miaow wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:The final Telegraph poll puts Conservatives at 41%, Labour at 36% and Lib Dems at 12%. We’re entering hung parliament territory again. Wont know for sure until the exit polls come out of course.

That’s an outlier of a poll, the average lead for the Tories from all the final polls is around 10%.

Posting this one final time. Public polling is deeply flawed: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

I am indeed aware that you think this. If you think we’re in line for a hung Parliament, or even Labour winning the most seats, make your way to the nearest online bookmaker and you will find very attractive prices.

I have no clue what the result will be tbh. But recent history shows that polling is now pretty flawed, and that's my basis for scepticism. I'm not a betting man so it's neither here nor there for me what the odds are.

I would say Farage gave the biggest clue about his access to private polling data when he had to deal with defections, but the Brexit Party vote has been dropping at a rate of knots, and is unlikely to be much better than UKIP were 2 years ago by the looks of things.

More than any other, it seems this election will hinge on marginals, and I haven't done nearly enough research on those marginals - nor do any of us have access to the data - that would give us an indication where this election might be going.

If I were to guess - not bet - I would say a majority of less than 10 will be the likely result for the Tories. But then other than vote splitting, I fail to see how this election will be vastly diferent to 2017. The student population was mobilised by the idea of no debt, but then voters also went heavily in to the two party system. Again, it appears that's going to be the case, with only minor improvement for the Lib Dems and a far right party in the Brexit Party. Northern Ireland might have something to say and could be really interesting, and potentially decisive, and is definitely an area of the country that is getting overlooked and undercovered in all of this. There appears to be no way back for the Tories forming a minority government or a coalition - unless, somehow, Swinson does a Clegg... - so it hinges on their ability to win enough seats in England, really, while holding on to the ones they have in Wales (can't think of any they might take in Wales that they currently don't have).

The polls have fluctuated quite sizeably yet I feel we're living in a time where almost no-one will have changed their mind on who to vote for from 6 months ago. The election campaign is unlikely to have won or lost too many people - everyone is constantly subjected to propaganda on TV and their echo chambers. So turnout will be the big one. Voter reg is good, I believe, and if enough young people vote, then there's a real chance that Labour really do succeed to repeat 2017, shock the polls, and prevent a Tory majority.

Honestly, I dont think any of us have a clue what's going to happen, and I'd back the exit polls suggesting a hung parliament or too close to call to reflect that. I might be wildly wrong, who knows.

The Brexit Party’s support has dropped because they declined to put a candidate in the majority of seats. In terms of seats where they are standing, they will do much better than UKIP in 2017; UKIP in 2017 barely saved any deposits. The Brexit Party will likely finish with a few second places, though they only have the one semi-realistic chance of a seat (Barnsley Central) and even that is an outside shot.

The Brexit Party likely have their own internal polling, like all parties, but Farage is largely basing his assertions on his very public belief that the BP will take more votes from Labour in t’North than they will from the Tories, something which the defectors disagree with.

I don’t think the polls have fluctuated too much to be honest. We’re largely at the same point, in terms of %Tory lead, that we were at at the start of the campaign.

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