PGATour Running Commentary - Aug 2020

PGATour Running Commentary- Aug 2020

1. Last week:  Justin Thomas overcame a 4 shot deficit to win the WGC-FEDEX St Jude by three shots over a four players of Tom Lewis, Daniel Berger, Phil Mickelson and Brooks Koepka   Richie Werenski won the Barracuda event, by one point over Troy Merritt.

2. After he won the Memorial, Jon Rahm took the #1 OWGR ranking from Rory, and now after winning the FEDEX, Justin Thomas took the #1 spot.  

3. This week is the PGA Championship, with most of the OWGR Top 100 players in the field.  The tournament venue is at Harding Park, which has hosted two WGC tournaments in the last 20 years.  Here are some finishes by players in this years field:  Woods (1), Garcia (3), Stenson (3), GMac (6), Furyk (15)Poulter (18), Mickelson (29), Scott (29), ZJohnson (43),  The Match play was played at Harding Park in 2015, won by Rory, beating Woodland in finals.  Players advancing to the Round of 16, include Willett, Furyk, Casey, Oosty, Fleetwood, Fowler, Hideki, and Leishman.

4. Only two more tournaments to qualify for the FEDEX playoffs, some notable players that are currently inside the Top 125, but probably have not clinched a spot in the Northern Trust (Tom Lewis (#117), Russell Knox (#120,  Paul Casey (#121), Charl Schwartzel (#123).  Some players just barely outside the Top 125 include Nick Watney, Zach Johnson, Matt Wallace, Shane Lowry, RCB, Sergio, and Justin Rose. Some players that need a big week to get inside the Top 125 include Willett, Dufner, Power, Walker, Stenson

Is there a more likable golfer than JT? So happy to see him win after he didn't quite manage it at the Memorial light. He has a reliability about him that Rory just doesn't.

McLaren wrote:Is there a more likable golfer than JT? So happy to see him win after he didn't quite manage it at the Memorial light. He has a reliability about him that Rory just doesn't.

On a 1-10 scale of likability scale, I only give JT a 5. I like Rory much better. Much Much better I have not seen JT in person, but I know some people that have, and JT definitely has some awareness when he is on camera. He turns on the "charm" when he thinks he is on camera, and can be quite a FIGJAM when he is not on camera.

GPB

I have become well practiced at accepting my golfing idols might not be the nicest people in reality, I am a huge Tiger fanboy remember.

But I do hope JT is genuinely as good a guy as he comes off from golf coverage.

9 of Thomas's wins have come in NO CUT events

2 Tournament of Champions
2 CJ Cups
2 CIMBs
2 WGCs4
1 BMW Championship

In addition, his win in the Dell Technologies Championship was a 100 player field

Only his wins in PGA Championship, the Honda Classic, and Sony Open have been full field events,

Yeh but the guys that play the elite schedule will sort of inevitably play a lot of limited field events. I kind of think that beating the guys that have also qualified for these top events is like we were discussing about the players getting a better z score post cut.

Any win on the Big Tour -- limited field or not -- is still very impressive. As is leading the Fed Ex Cup. As is achieving World #1 Ranking.

Looking forward to the First Major of 2020. From the European side, I would (of course) go with Rahm and Rory. JT red hot and Koepka looks like he's found something and we all know how he generally gets up for majors. Beware Daniel Berger.

Really disappointing year for Justin Rose thus far. Surprising.

Always a worry when a player blames a club change for a dramatic decline in form. A player in form would probably win whatever clubs they had in the bag, or at least adapt pretty quickly.

Not sure whats wrong with winning limited field events? Who is the highest ranked player who didn't play last week?

ben

I think the argument would be that collectively the players missing have a reasonable chance of finishing above any given player. Although probably not enough to really devalue a win too much. Also the guaranteed OWGR points, cash, fedex points, no cut etc available in some of the limited events is seen as unfair. I know kwini was not keen on limited fields at all.

TV "prime time" coverage UK time is 20.00 to 02.00 Saturday and 19.00 to 01.00 Sunday I got my timings right.

Whats wrong with limited field events?

Because there are approx 70 player who can't win the event because they don't play..

I keep hearing arguments that the fields get deeper and deeper as time goes by. How can they get deeper than 78 players if there are only 78 player in the field.

These limited field events definitely have quality, but they certainly do not have depth.

Since the PGATour restart, two players have won regular events that were not WGC-eligible at the time that they won the tournament. (Berger, Thompson)

So, who was the highest ranked player not involved in last week's event?

The lack of players, who haven't been good enough to qualify shouldn't diminish the winning of an event filled with the best players. So, i don't think tge fact that JT has won a lot of limited field events devalues thise wins.

I think more are probably needed for the good of golf tv. Similar to those pgl reports. Less players shorter events better for TV. Get the best together as often as possible.

The WGCs were a step on the slippery slope that led to the PGL. Which would have been a closed shop mentality.

GPB

I am probably more accepting of the WGC's because sometimes I feel like golf has to offer me a little more "entertainment" than a regular PGAT event. I watch for the JT's, Rory's, Tigers's, essentially the superstars. The WGC's offer the more casual fans like me a higher probability of a household name winning. Sadly I need that.

Golf still needs a good kick up the arse. Something to drag it forward a bit. I still have no idea why players can't wear shorts?

Need some more 9 hole tv events. These miced up Wednesday shows are good, let's see more of it. Mix up events a bit. Why should it be over 4 days.

The best are also undervalued, I have no idea why players can't be paid to play more.

GPB wrote:

McLaren wrote:Is there a more likable golfer than JT? So happy to see him win after he didn't quite manage it at the Memorial light. He has a reliability about him that Rory just doesn't.

On a 1-10 scale of likability scale, I only give JT a 5.  I like Rory much better.  Much Much better  I have not seen JT in person, but I know some people that have, and JT definitely has some awareness when he is on camera.  He turns on the "charm" when he thinks he is on camera, and can be quite a FIGJAM when he is not on camera.

He seems an OK sort of guy. Nothing controversial that I can recall really. One thing though - he can play some serious golf. I'd be more than happy (like he or anyone else cares!) if he has an extended stay as #1.

JT is an under the radar kind of guy. Nothing fancy there. Somewhat boring but boring in a different way than Koepka. Just meh. But he plays some phenomenal golf and just keeps on winning big tournaments.

I prefer Thomas to the terminally boring Gordon Spieth. Thomas, despite looking like he started chewing tobacco from birth is one of the best ball strikers around.
I gave Thomas credit for being the only Yank who bothered to play Le Golf National or whatever it is called prior to the Ryder Cup in a competitive context, and it showed.

beninho wrote:Golf still needs a good kick up the arse. Something to drag it forward a bit. I still have no idea why players can't wear shorts?

Need some more 9 hole tv events. These miced up Wednesday shows are good, let's see more of it. Mix up events a bit. Why should it be over 4 days.

The best are also undervalued, I have no idea why players can't be paid to play more.

I think it's only a matter of time before the more progressive European Tour allows this to happen. It does so in practice so perhaps one of the warmer tour stops will be the test case. If the caddy can wear shorts, what's the point in not allowing the players to, especially as golf trousers are largely ghastly pieces of kit.

So who do you like for the PGA this week? Bryson being tipped by many at the moment. I like how Shane Lowry has been trending.

1 Koepka
2 Bryson
3 JT
4 Finau
5 Xander

Oh what are we missing Sportform and those make-sure-you-join-the-fun v6 Forum major competitions from the 'old days' (before the germs hit the world).
Maybe that could have even lured kwini back aboard.

incontinentia wrote:So who do you like for the PGA this week? Bryson being tipped by many at the moment. I like how Shane Lowry has been trending.

Can't see Lowry winning. He's like Willet when he won the masters, still dining out on his Open win.

super_realist wrote:

incontinentia wrote:So who do you like for the PGA this week? Bryson being tipped by many at the moment. I like how Shane Lowry has been trending.

Can't see Lowry winning. He's like Willet when he won the masters, still dining out on his Open win.

Who do you fancy? Schauffele is being strongly tipped by multiple commentators too

There's a lot of the big hitting youngish yanks who seem to be stepping it up.

Cantley
Souffle
De Shambles
Morikawa
Finau etc but what do I know I rarely get it right.

A lot of others like Leishman, Hatton, Fleetwood, Hovland and McIlroy all capable though too. Could be an interesting PGA for once, usually only the Open is a more boring major.

Apparently the ball doesnt fly very well at Harding Park, perhaps negating the big hitters advantage.

incontinentia wrote:Apparently the ball doesnt fly very well at Harding Park, perhaps negating the big hitters advantage.

Then it affects everyone doesn't it? Big hitters will still be longer than shorter hitters.

I dont know super, I havent seen any data or peer reviewed studies on the topic.

My thinking was that the distance loss for long hitters could be more pronounced, e.g 10% of 400 yards vs 10% of 300.

Who drives 400 yards?

PGA average is about 295, the longest golfer averages 324. That's not really an enormous disparity.

Bryson gets pretty close. Anyway it looks like Tiger has the course well sussed out, he's talking about marine layers and all sorts. I believe he's pretty experienced playing the course from his college days, so if his body can hold up he might be one to watch.

Dusch Shampoo is the one averaging 325, not to say he can't hit one 350 but he's not hitting it 400

I got the impression he was routinely hitting 375 yard bombs. Anyway I'm happy to concede the point. At least it might create a bit of chat on a golf board which is looking a bit..

Has got a bit boring lately.

GPB wrote:9 of Thomas's wins have come in NO CUT events

2 Tournament of Champions
2 CJ Cups
2 CIMBs
2 WGCs4
1 BMW Championship

In addition, his win in the Dell Technologies Championship was a 100 player field

Only his wins in PGA Championship, the Honda Classic, and Sony Open have been full field events,

Awesome... shows that not only is he capable of qualifying for the elite chalk field events, he's able to win against those great fields. Not a bunch of  Safeways or Sanderson Farms cluttering his resume. Also clear his game travels well and works on all types of courses, surfaces, etc...

McLaren wrote:ben

I think the argument would be that collectively the players missing have a reasonable chance of finishing above any given player. Although probably not enough to really devalue a win too much. Also the guaranteed OWGR points, cash, fedex points, no cut etc available in some of the limited events is seen as unfair. I know kwini was not keen on limited fields at all.

The way I've always looked at it Mac... Limited field events are actually harder to win than the full field events.  It's not just who you have to beat once you get there, it's the difficulty of qualifying to get into them to begin with. In effect they do have cuts, it's just that the cut is before the first round instead of after the second.

incontinentia wrote:Apparently the ball doesnt fly very well at Harding Park, perhaps negating the big hitters advantage.

IMO ball not carrying far actually increases the big hitters advantage.

robopz wrote:
The way I've always looked at it Mac... Limited field events are actually harder to win than the full field events.  It's not just who you have to beat once you get there, it's the difficulty of qualifying to get into them to begin with. In effect they do have cuts, it's just that the cut is before the first round instead of after the second.

I see that you got your centrifuge repaired.

robopz wrote:

McLaren wrote:ben

I think the argument would be that collectively the players missing have a reasonable chance of finishing above any given player. Although probably not enough to really devalue a win too much. Also the guaranteed OWGR points, cash, fedex points, no cut etc available in some of the limited events is seen as unfair. I know kwini was not keen on limited fields at all.

The way I've always looked at it Mac... Limited field events are actually harder to win than the full field events.  It's not just who you have to beat once you get there, it's the difficulty of qualifying to get into them to begin with. In effect they do have cuts, it's just that the cut is before the first round instead of after the second.

I agree that thinking about the cut happening before the event is a good way to think about the elite limited field/no cut events. You have to prove yourself over the longer term to make "the cut" and actually get to play the 4 rounds of the tournament. In some ways by cutting the lower ranked players you are protecting the top players from a "lesser" player fluking a good week.

I guess the issue is stuff like the Tiger event where the field can be really small.

incontinentia wrote:I got the impression he was routinely hitting 375 yard bombs. Anyway I'm happy to concede the point. At least it might create a bit of chat on a golf board which is looking a bit..

The way the driving stats are calculated they dramatically understate the distance the big hitters are actually hitting it. Several factors... Only two drives are used.... And they're not always hitting driver....  a bad drive into the trees or something  dramatically reduces distance avg of just two drives.

The reality is... In everyday neutral conditions, flat hole, no wind, Bryson is easily a 340+ driver now. Might even be scaring 350.  And 325-330+ of that is carry.  And a couple of guys aren't very far behind... Players like Wolff, Champ, List, Bubba, DJ & even Rory are legitimate 330-ish or more drivers now. (Any time they want to be)

Edit: and I should add warm weather to the above. Driving distance is less in colder weather can be dramatically reduced in cases of a marine layer week like they are supposed to have at Harding Park.

Mac.... Looking at rankings of winners of majors and the Players since the OWGR came out... Only about 9 to 12% of them are won by players who wouldn't be WGC eligible.  So sure, somewhere between one out of 8-11 WGCs would likely be won by somebody who can't get into them. But so what? Doesn't diminish them at all if you ask me. Now granted the CIMB, Zozo or CJ Cup isn't WGC quality, and a Tour Championship or Tournament of Champions fields are in the 30 range.  But there's a reason, they're so damn hard to qualify for.

IMO any premise that wins in the premium limited field events should someway be diminished because they don't have enough Troy Merritt's or Zach Suchar's in the field is just silliness.

robopz wrote:

incontinentia wrote:I got the impression he was routinely hitting 375 yard bombs. Anyway I'm happy to concede the point. At least it might create a bit of chat on a golf board which is looking a bit..

The way the driving stats are calculated they dramatically understate the distance the big hitters are actually hitting it. Several factors... Only two drives are used.... And they're not always hitting driver....  a bad drive into the trees or something  dramatically reduces distance avg of just two drives.

The reality is... In everyday neutral conditions, flat hole, no wind, Bryson is easily a 340+ driver now. Might even be scaring 350.  And 325-330+ of that is carry.  And a couple of guys aren't very far behind... Players like Wolff, Champ, List, Bubba, DJ & even Rory are legitimate 330-ish or more drivers now. (Any time they want to be)

By the same rationale they also underestimate the distance the average and lower drivers are hitting it. It works both ways.

robo

Essentially JT has a damn fine record.


Will the PGA champs get the usual bump in excitement that the Masters gets because everyone is so keen to watch a major? I know I am looking forward to this week a lot.

My picks would be

Sungjae Im
Robert MacIntyre
Webb Simpson

Let's hope it's not "Webb" Simpson.

super_realist wrote:By the same rationale they also underestimate the distance the average and lower drivers are hitting it. It works both ways.

Agree that all of their driving distances are somewhat understated, but I believe it's dramatically more for the really big hitters. First because their generally less accurate (hitting more obstacles rough), second because they're hitting drivers a lot less on measured holes than the rest. 

IMO to really see how far they're hitting it, you need to watch a good amount of the field go through a single hole with pretty much all of them hitting driver. And hopefully it's a hole where TV has the radar stats working. Its the carry #s that are most revealing to me.

EDIT: Take Bryson for instance.  His stats were 340 for Colonial, 295 for Heritage, 350 for Travelers.  If you watch them at all through those three tournaments you KNOW he wasn't hitting driver 45-55 yds less at Harbour Town. It's just that he couldn't hit driver there much or he was clanking it in the trees on the measured holes when he did

Like you Mac, I am really looking forward to this tournament. And absolutely no clear favorite coming in. Given what I'm hearing about the rough, I don't think "bomb and gouge" will win the day. Still, if I had to pick one golfer it would be Rahm.

Shotrock wrote:Like you Mac, I am really looking forward to this tournament. And absolutely no clear favorite coming in. Given what I'm hearing about the rough, I don't think "bomb and gouge" will win the day. Still, if I had to pick one golfer it would be Rahm.

Saw a tweet by Poulter. He showed two golf balls six inches apart in the rough. One he could play easily, the other with difficulty because of the way the rough had been cut. Just as he was finishing he said " and the lesson today is....." and his caddie chipped in with "keep it on the fairway "

Hello all!!!

Excited for a major again!

I hope everyone is keeping safe through this trying year! Stay safe

I’m on Dechambeau, Fleetwood, Spieth, Wallace and Dufner this week

Spieth already out of it it looks like

SirB

Tried to watch as much of the golf as possible last night but the 3 am finish makes it tough. I woke up on the sofa just after 1 am and headed to bed.

Are the timings for this a little different to other west coast events, I don't remember having to stay up quite so late for West coast events in the past.


It was pretty clear from the coverage I did see that the rough is brutal, even BDC failed to advance one out of it, he just played to within 40-50 yards of the green.

Also was it just me or are the greens surprisingly firm on the chips? So a few balls roll by the hole, but that could just be the rough removing control over the spin.

Pretty disappointing that only one of Lowry's shots were shown yesterday. Hopefully he'll get plenty of air time on sunday.

https://m.independent.ie/sport/golf/the-tv-snub-is-it-really-too-much-to-ask-to-see-more-than-five-seconds-of-shane-lowry-39429689.html