Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

The best thing about our system is that every single person in the country gets an equal vote under equal circumstances. Unless a National ID card scheme is introduced this will just alienate poorer voters. Just another way to rig the system.

Not one mention of climate change between them, and they all, every single one of them, support the last joke of a government. It's now become a competition of who can come up with the most economically illiterate policy of unfunded tax cuts and giveaways while not acknowledging the giant Brexit-shaped hole in the public finances.

To say they're all completely deluded would be an understatement.

Badenoch and Tugendhat did well. Tugendhat had the lovely relaxed air of someone who knows he's on his way out soon, so he may as well enjoy it while it lasts. Mordaunt is hopelessly out of her depth. Truss will send anyone to sleep with her soporific tones, she'll need to work on that if she becomes PM. Sunak hilariously asked to be trusted in his closing speech, and appeared totally insincere throughout the whole thing.

I thought it was noticeable that Sunak appeared to attack Mordaunt and Truss on multiple occasions, but agreed with Badenoch many times, clearly showing his preference for who he'd rather face in the final two.

Has this made a significant change? No.

Worth noting that only a small fraction of the floating voter audience were convinced by anything any of them said.

I think Rishi can beat Truss, despite trailing her in the polls, in the final two after that. She really is soporific.

I said that Badenoch needed to be inspired to have any chance of getting back in the race - she wasn't, but Truss was indeed so dull that it might give that wing of the party pause for thought, especially if Truss bores everyone to tears on Sunday as well.

Some snap poll from Opinium on who did best - Tugendhat 36%; Sunak 24%; Mordaunt 12%; Badenoch 12%; Truss 7%; None/DK 9%.

If this is the 5 best to Tory party have to offer we are in deep trouble. None of them inspiring. Sunak is like a Poopie David Cameron, Truss is just a parody at this point, Mordaunt was just there and offered nothing, Badenoch is out her depth in what is essentially a small garden pond, Tugendhat is basically Rory Stewart - impressive by comparison but lack the killer edge.

Christ. I'd be worried if I was a Tory, but seeing as I'm not its pretty funny.

Is there any Tory MP of today or of the recent past that non-Tory supporting members of this thread would support?   Personally I would like a safe pair of hands candidate who is not a war-monger and who is not keen to enter into economic and military wars with super powers or even lesser powers far removed from Britain's borders.  Personally I think I have heard enough about Liz Truss not to ever vote for her.

Only Rory Stewart for me Bertie, but of course he's not even an MP these days.

Spoiler:

Latest ConHome poll puts Badenoch in the lead with 31% (+12), overtaking Mordaunt who has dropped from first to third on 18%. Truss sits in-between at 20%.

The more the Conservative members see of Badenoch, the more they like her. Which isn't surprising as she's actually a conservative. The more the Conservative members see of Mordaunt, the less they like her. Which isn't surprising as she's not a conservative.

But despite this poll Badenoch is holding on for dear life in the race, ahead of Sunday's debate. She needs to take most of Braverman's supporters and get a donation from Sunak to leapfrog Truss into 3rd place.

Genuine question here. How can Badenoch pledge this: "I will fight as hard for yours as I do for my three kids, protecting their future by looking after our environment, improving schools, and creating a strong economy" while cutting taxes during stagflation?

It doesn't work like that. Surely the intended audience isn't dim enough to actually believe this fantasy?

Derek Smalls wrote:Only Rory Stewart for me Bertie, but of course he's not even an MP these days.

While I disagree fundamentally with his politics he always came across as sincere and respectable. Wasnt afraid to call Johnson out on his cowpat when no one else would even though it cost him his seat.

Hell I’d even take David Cameron back over any of the potential PM’s we have now.

Pr4wn wrote:Genuine question here. How can Badenoch pledge this: "I will fight as hard for yours as I do for my three kids, protecting their future by looking after our environment, improving schools, and creating a strong economy" while cutting taxes during stagflation?

It doesn't work like that. Surely the intended audience isn't dim enough to actually believe this fantasy?

Mass privatisation without saying it. Although it wouldnt surprise me if there were some dim enough to buy it.

Pr4wn wrote:Genuine question here. How can Badenoch pledge this: "I will fight as hard for yours as I do for my three kids, protecting their future by looking after our environment, improving schools, and creating a strong economy" while cutting taxes during stagflation?

It doesn't work like that. Surely the intended audience isn't dim enough to actually believe this fantasy?

We're not in stagflation, but she hasn't pledged to cut taxes right away, as far as I'm aware. That's why I complimented her earlier in the thread for not entering into the tax-cut bidding war.

Latest ConHome run-off polling for the top three:

Sunak 43-41 Mordaunt; Truss 49-42 Sunak; Truss 48-41 Mordaunt

Both Truss and Mordaunt stalling. Mordaunt was briefly favourite, she has come under increased scrutiny (mainly that book she co-authored), and the response to that scrutiny hasn't been favourable.

Truss has tried to avoid scrutiny and broadcast interviews, but her sleep-inducing presentation is causing problems for her. There's every sense her campaign is starting to derail, with her main challenger Badenoch picking up momentum over the weekend, so she needs a strong performance tonight to stay on track. If Badenoch closes the current gap of 15 MPs tomorrow then Truss will be in a panic.

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Genuine question here. How can Badenoch pledge this: "I will fight as hard for yours as I do for my three kids, protecting their future by looking after our environment, improving schools, and creating a strong economy" while cutting taxes during stagflation?

It doesn't work like that. Surely the intended audience isn't dim enough to actually believe this fantasy?

We're not in stagflation, but she hasn't pledged to cut taxes right away, as far as I'm aware. That's why I complimented her earlier in the thread for not entering into the tax-cut bidding war.

Not stagflation in the most traditional sense - we have high employment - but the UK has stagnating wages, a gargantuan wealth gap, a stagnant economy and some of the highest inflation in the developed world. I've seen absolutely nothing to suggest that any of these candidates have any idea of how to deal with these conditions, other than to wish them away.

To "improve schools" costs money. Money is obtained through tax. You simply cannot improve schools while cutting taxes in a stagnant economy.

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Genuine question here. How can Badenoch pledge this: "I will fight as hard for yours as I do for my three kids, protecting their future by looking after our environment, improving schools, and creating a strong economy" while cutting taxes during stagflation?

It doesn't work like that. Surely the intended audience isn't dim enough to actually believe this fantasy?

We're not in stagflation, but she hasn't pledged to cut taxes right away, as far as I'm aware. That's why I complimented her earlier in the thread for not entering into the tax-cut bidding war.

Not stagflation in the most traditional sense - we have high employment - but the UK has stagnating wages, a gargantuan wealth gap, a stagnant economy and some of the highest inflation in the developed world. I've seen absolutely nothing to suggest that any of these candidates have any idea of how to deal with these conditions, other than to wish them away.

To "improve schools" costs money. Money is obtained through tax. You simply cannot improve schools while cutting taxes in a stagnant economy.

It depends what you mean by 'improve schools'. You don't necessarily need to spend money to achieve improvement, if your improvements are aimed at efficiency or policy reform, for instance. Further, you don't have to obtain money through tax. You could, for example, cut spending in other areas to free up money for education, or end vanity projects such as HS2.

There are also arguments that, counter-intuitively, a lesser tax % generates a higher tax yield, as has been seen in the past with corporation tax and the top rate of tax. Taxes also have knock-on effects towards productivity, economic growth, consumption and wages.

Anyway, I haven't see Badenoch call for specific tax cuts, and has she has spoken openly about 'trade-offs' in these decisions - “There are always tough choices in life and in politics; no free lunches, no tax cuts without limits on Government spending, no stronger defence without a slimmer state."

Tonight's debate/who did best poll: Sunak 24%; Tugendhat 19%; Mordaunt 17%; Truss 15%; Badenoch 12%.

So fairly inconclusive. I thought Truss had a bit more fire and energy this evening. Sunak made me giggle when he had the brass neck to talk about sound money.

Sunak back as the bookies favourite - 13/10. Mordaunt now out to 11/5, Truss 3/1 and Badenoch 11/1. Probably based on today's polling.

There's essentially two different halves of the draw in the Tory Party. Sunak and Mordaunt on one side, Truss and Badenoch on the other. It's very unlikely that we'll see both of one half face off against one another.

Sunak on 101, Mordaunt 83, with Tugendhat's votes ready to be plundered on Tuesday's ballot, but Mordaunt needs to cut the deficit tomorrow to get those backers behind her.

Truss on 64, Badenoch 49. Badenoch has resisted the calls to throw it in and get behind Truss, but she's hanging on by her fingernails and needs to overhaul Truss's lead by Tuesday or she's out. If Truss maintains or increases her lead tomorrow, it really is all over for Badenoch.

Duty281 wrote:Latest ConHome run-off polling for the top three:

Sunak 43-41 Mordaunt; Truss 49-42 Sunak; Truss 48-41 Mordaunt

Don't know why they delayed, but they've now released them for Badenoch as well, who is by a comfortable margin the most popular choice of the members, if not the MPs.

Badenoch 59-31 Mordaunt; Badenoch 60-34 Sunak; Badenoch 61-31 Truss.

There was only one winner from that debate last night and thats Keir Starmer. What a bloody farce. I cant fathom the mind of someone who watched that and came away thinking any of the five would be a good PM.

Again, and I repeat, none of the candidates are mentioning the massive Brexit-sized hole in the country's finances either. Sunak is, rather ridiculously, claiming that he will abandon all EU laws.

Yes, because everyone wants a mass re-writing of our country's laws through a Tory prism.

I long for the UK to have a grown-up debate about drugs, instead of nonsense like this:

'Recreational drug users in England and Wales could have their passports and driving licences seized under new proposals announced by the government.

'The latest crackdown on drug use in society would also see casual users of cocaine and cannabis facing fines and having to attend drug courses.

'The government says the tougher penalties would help tackle the "scourge" of substance abuse in society.

The proposals have been published in a white paper entitled "Swift, Certain, Tough. New Consequences for Drug Possession".'

https://news.sky.com/story/recreational-drug-users-could-have-passports-and-driving-licences-confiscated-under-new-plans-in-government-crackdown-12653788

The last debate (Tuesday night) has been shelved because the whole thing is pointless Truss and Sunak refused to take part.

Apparently party bigwigs were concerned that the debates were harming the image of the party. It's a bit late for that!

I think the last 12 years has done quite a bit more harm to the image of the party!

Badenoch 58; Mordaunt 82; Sunak 115; Truss 71; Tugendhat 31.

Tugendhat departs as we all knew he would.

Sunak extends his advantage over Mordaunt from 18 to 33, Mordaunt's actually lost a vote since last time. It is all over for Mordaunt, realistically speaking, as she won't overhaul Sunak from here.

Badenoch closes the gap on Truss from 15 to 13, which isn't likely to be enough. It seems some of Braverman's support went to Sunak. Badenoch needs a helping hand from Sunak, some of Tugendhat's support tomorrow, and maybe some deserters from Mordaunt's camp, otherwise it is all over for her at Tuesday's ballot.

Kemi Badenoch getting official endorsement from Britain First is just the icing on the cake.

I can only assume they read “bad Enoch” and decided that was enough.

Rees-Mogg calls Truss a "Genuine Euro-sceptic". This is the same Truss that campaigned for Remain.

What a complete tool that bloke is.

Tobias Ellwood has the whip removed for abstaining in last nights confidence vote. One less vote for PM now.

Badenoch 59; Mordaunt 92; Sunak 118; Truss 86.

Badenoch unsurprisingly gets eliminated. The members' choice, but not the MPs choice. She'll likely be a leading runner the next time the job is up for grabs.

Her support should mainly filter to Truss, setting us up for the Sunak-Truss finale that has looked probable since Braverman's endorsement late last week. 120 is the magic number, so Truss only needs 34 of Badenoch's 59 to make the final two.

Polling today indicates a 54-35 lead for Truss over Sunak.

Truss currently an even money favourite (in from 7/2 on Thursday) and Sunak 6/4. Mordaunt way outside on 5/1.

Truss could end up as PM despite never getting anywhere near 50% of MPs backing her. Mandate, moi?

Truss probably would be Labours second choice after Badenoch. Another cowpat merchant with the integrity of a digestive in a swimming pool. Not as close to Johnson 2.0 as Sunak, but certainly more than 1.5. She'll be an absolute gift for Labour.

I think of the four left, Badenoch would have been the best choice (electorally) for the Tories, as she's far enough away from the Johnson debacle, and has a vision and ideas. She also has charisma and presents well.

None of the other three are much good, but Truss is probably the next best for the Tories. She'll actually be able to lead the party and has some nous and political philosophy, but she starts with a big negative in terms of approval and isn't much cop in front of a camera (so the 2024 GE debates won't set the pulse racing). But at least in presentation terms she has the potential to improve, as Thatcher did.

Sunak would probably be the worst. Johnson part two (which hardly anyone wants) and has no chance to rebuild his image, let alone the economy. Labour would be able to hammer him time and again.

Mordaunt is genuinely incompetent and has nothing going for her. I think she would be another Corbyn, in that she would simply be unable to manage her party competently, never mind an election campaign, and would lead the Tories to oblivion. Maybe Mordaunt's the worst.

Yes, the Britain First preferred candidate would certainly be the best choice for the Tory/UKIP party

Well I see the day's campaigning has got off to a positive start, with Penny Mordaunt having deleted a tweet that read: 'vote for Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss today and you'll murder the party you love'

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Well I see the day's campaigning has got off to a positive start, with Penny Mordaunt having deleted a tweet that read: 'vote for Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss today and you'll murder the party you love'

That's funny because Mordaunt (and her supporters) have made a big thing of campaigning cleanly, but now the writing's on the wall she's lashing out.

Final MP ballot result announced at 16:00 today. 1/6 that Truss makes it through; 3/1 that Mordaunt does.

Badenoch not revealing who shes backing. Incredibly smart move which will likely land her a cabinet position no matter who wins.

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Well I see the day's campaigning has got off to a positive start, with Penny Mordaunt having deleted a tweet that read: 'vote for Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss today and you'll murder the party you love'

That's funny because Mordaunt (and her supporters) have made a big thing of campaigning cleanly, but now the writing's on the wall she's lashing out.

Final MP ballot result announced at 16:00 today. 1/6 that Truss makes it through; 3/1 that Mordaunt does.

In her defence, she was sharing an article in the Telegraph - but she should have known how it would be received.

This whole thing reminds me of that bit in the Simpsons where Homer is at the Duff brewery.

137 - Sunak
113 - Truss
105 - Mordaunt

Mordaunt 105; Sunak 137; Truss 113.

Perhaps a bit closer than expected, but Mordaunt is out all the same. An utterly dismal candidate and an indictment on the poor state of the Tory party that she got in the final three.

Sunak v Truss the final battle. This circus will be dragged out for another six weeks, which is laughable as I'm sure most of the members know how they're going to vote, and there's little Sunak or Truss can say or do that will be new.

Truss should win it from here with her poll ratings. If she did, it would be similar to IDS beating Clarke in 2001 - Clarke was more popular amongst the MPs, but IDS was the members choice in the end.

For the sake of the Tories they should back Truss as she's capable of winning a majority at the next GE; Sunak would be another Gordon Brown and winning a majority would be a mighty struggle.

Duty281 wrote:Mordaunt 105; Sunak 137; Truss 113.

Perhaps a bit closer than expected, but Mordaunt is out all the same. Three utterly dismal candidates and an indictment on the poor state of the Tory party that they were the final three.

Sunak v Truss the final battle. This circus will be dragged out for another six weeks, which is laughable as I'm sure most of the members know how they're going to vote, and there's little Sunak or Truss can say or do that will be new.

Truss should win it from here with her poll ratings. If she did, it would be similar to IDS beating Clarke in 2001 - Clarke was more popular amongst the MPs, but IDS was the members choice in the end.

For the sake of the Tories they should back Truss as she's capable of winning a majority at the next GE; Sunak would be another Gordon Brown and winning a majority would be a mighty struggle.

Fixed for you.

Cant believe Liz Truss is going to be the next PM. The same Liz Truss that said prisons use dogs because the barking disorientates drones and thats good in the fight against contraband.

Frak brilliant, roll on the banter years

Two ****ing awful options

Liz Truss will make Starmer look like a political heavyweight head to head. If Labour could have picked the final two, this would have been it.

GSC wrote:Two ****ing awful options

Like picking between Mrs Brown's Boys and Love Island.

Rishi will always have that time he got to pay people not to go to work.

Can Starmer do anything at all now he has someone even less inspiring standing against him

People also seem to have forgot Sunak is also an actual criminal.

I look forward to hearing how this is a fresh start from Boris' chancellor and his foreign secretary

There will be 12 (zzzz) in-person hustings between these two candidates up and down the country, but 10 of them will be held after the ballots have been sent out and (probably) returned by the members, somewhat nullifying Sunak's supposed superior debating ability.

Labour's national polling lead has gone into the 10-12% range since Johnson's resignation, but this is likely a temporary bounce that will soon come down. FPTP has had many critics over the past few elections, with good reason, but I wonder what will happen if, at the next GE, Labour win the vote by 1-3% but the Tories win more seats?

Liz Truss saying the last 20 years of economic policy haven't worked while a Conservative government has been in power for the last 12 years is a real mood