Joshua vs Usyk Predictions

Well, the time is almost upon us for the Mandatory that couldn't be avoided: AJ vs Usyk with just over a week to go.

So how do we see this going? Usyk has movement and ringcraft to rival anyone in the lighter weights - plus he's not particularly shopworn. He's a very intelligent fighter. He will come into this fight full of confidence and with a gameplan, presumably to make the much larger Joshua look cumbersome and miss. But, as Mike Tyson famously said, "Everybody got a gameplan til they get punched in the face". And punching is something that AJ does very well.

As I have previously said in another thread, a punch from a top heavyweight is NOT like something you'd get in the cruisers. I just have this feeling that regardless of his expertise and long amateur career, Usyk is going to eat a big punch and it'll likely put him on the floor, and hard. I think he'll give AJ a couple of issues early, but I reckon AJ will be able to brush off his punches. Usyk did not give a masterclass in either of his HW fights, and certainly didn't trouble Chisora that much. Yes he beat him by UD, but wasn't Dereck taunting him to punch him properly?

Bear in mind that this is a unified Heavyweight Belt fight, and to win it in the holder's backyard, Usyk is going to have to do something special.

This goes 3 ways:

Usyk befuddles AJ and cruises to a tight UD.

AJ starts quickly, lands a huge punch in the first round and batters Usyk from then on, forcing an early stoppage.

AJ starts slowly, catches up with Usyk by about Rd 6 and sends him to sleep.

I feel it'll be one or 2 or 3. I just can't see 1 happening myself.

Joshua by KO. Usyk is too small and doesn’t seem to have any power at heavyweight.
Sure Usyk could try and fight with the sweet science but again Joshua will surely land at least once.

Joshua ko 2...Easy..

The fact Usyk v Chisora was 5-5 or 6-4 at best pretty much tells you all you need to know..

Hasn't got the chin or the power at Heavy to deal with anything that isn't a washed-up trialhorse.

Really not sure, but have a feeling Joshua will win with some form of controversy. Dubious decision or a soft hometown stoppage with the fight still in the balance. It's another awful undercard for a fight of such magnitude (no surprise there, mind you) so if the fight itself doesn't deliver or there's a feeling of dissatisfaction it will be another huge chance for the sport to shine missed.

The fact Usyk has been playing up his performance against Chisora suggests to me he knows he's in over his head. AJ within three rounds.

Soul is spot on.. For those that like a bet..

40/1...1st
33/1....2nd
25/1....3rd..

When AJ lands the end is nigh.....Joshua is a lot more intimidating than Derek and every chance a guy giving away 40 pounds and five inches freezes...

Spinks was a great fighter and he did...

AJ will be hugely focussed for this. Anything but a commanding win will be unacceptable and Usyk stands in his way of $$$$$$$$ for the Fury fights. AJ will put in a big performance - Usyk will be counted out.

With the drawn out difficulty in arranging the AJ vs Fury fight, getting it sorted, signing the contracts and then having it taken away and now having to fight a blown up cruiserweight - it must be disappointing and slightly less motivating for AJ.  

AJ has had the wake up call of getting beat by Andy Ruiz Jr, a last minute call up when he had his mind set on Jarrell Miller.  Whereas Andy Ruiz had the appearance of a heavyweight blob with short arms and height,  Usyk offers a different perspective: skilled fighter who maybe doesn't have the punch power nor punch resistance when stepping up to heavyweight.

One would have to expect that at some point AJ will tag Usyk with a powerful punch and then go in for the finish.  There is no evidence that Usyk has the power to stop AJ in his tracks when he is going in for the "kill".  So it seems the most probable outcome is going to be a stoppage win for AJ after a few "warm up" early rounds.  If it is an "early" stoppage by the referee rather than a clear knockout / series of knockdowns then I can imagine there could be some controversy as predicted by Chris.  It will be interesting to see if Usyk takes the knee tactically to give him time to recover from any concussive blows that AJ may deal him.

Joshua 240lbs
Usyk 221lbs

Usyk far too heavy.. Make him slower...The odds against Spinks v Tyson changed dramatically when he came in Heavy..

What little chance Usyk had has gone..

Not posted in a while, however, just watched the Hatton v Martinez fight. I scored it 6 zip to Martinez. Landed more, landed better, made his opponent miss more and had his man hanging on. Disgraceful decision. On this basis, Joshua only has to see the bell to pick up a win.

Hello Klutey.....Yes the kid is ordinary as the day is long and it should be made a no contest...

Disgusting....

In fairness, it was rude of me to not answer the question whilst interrupting this post with a rant about bad judging. So, personally, feel Joshua coming in so light and ripped shows he might have over thought this. Usyk was hurt by Chisora and as noted already, it was a classic pick-em in most people's eyes. So for me Joshua plan should be to let his hands go and take the centre of the ring. Got a feeling though that it's going to be cagey considering Joshua's weight and so it could be a long complicated night.

Around 240lbs I think is the optimum weight for AJ, he'll still carry more than enough power whilst he should improve his stamina. He can at times look a bit cumbersome but I don't see that being a problem tonight, he looks lean rather than a bodybuilder which can only be a good thing. Usyk on the other hand looks to be carrying too much weight and he doesn't have the frame to carry it comfortably.

He still has a 20lb weight advantage, combined with his heavy hands he shouldn't struggle to hold the centre of the ring, his jab alone will cause Usyk problems.

Christ, Joshua's terrible. No head movement, no defence, no footwork, no jab. Can't figure out the southpaw angle at all and is letting Uysk impose himself on the contest.

Three apiece now though and Usyk is unsurprisingly slowing down.

AJ completely outboxed tonight

116-112 Usyk. Joshua needs a new trainer. Shocking tactics tonight.

At halfway AJ regained control but just wouldn't throw the right hand with any authority, terrible performance. He looks as though he's been overtrained and the instinct has completely gone.

Fantastic performance by Usyk.

Also had it 116-112 in Usyk's favour, though one more minute and it would have been a KO. Joshua got everything wrong from the outset and showed a lack of basic boxing skills. Uysk was game and tough and landed the straight left repeatedly. Was more like a Friday night brawl than a world title fight.

Judges...don't rob Uysk. Thank goodness. That's the Joshua-Fury super fight torched.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Joshua ko 2...Easy..

Which idiot wrote this.

What a great fighter but Joshua so one paced...

Rematch clause in the contract apparently. Does Joshua take it? Or does he retire? He's 32 soon and has been in quite a few tear-ups. He got schooled tonight by someone who struggled past Chisora, which doesn't bode well for future prospects.

Joshua quite clearly has got comfortable. He might as well wrap up, coz boxing ain't a sport for those who r not committed. Usyk loves it (boxing), but to be honest at the very, very top level he is bang average. His jab is poor, and his foot movement is a basic side to side, if Fury is half way in shape Usyk will have zero chance.

Duty281 wrote:Rematch clause in the contract apparently. Does Joshua take it? Or does he retire? He's 32 soon and has been in quite a few tear-ups. He got schooled tonight by someone who struggled past Chisora, which doesn't bode well for future prospects.

You’d surely take the rematch. Joshua gets what £50m per fight?
If he loses he can retire. No real shame losing to someone like Usyk.

Usyk was unproven at this level.  He has just proved himself. Not sure the rematch is going to be much different but in boxing anything is sort of possible.

I thought the pre-fight press conference indicated that AJ had difficulty getting motivated for this fight - saying for him it was just another day like any other day in the gym.

You're a hard man to please IJK, but I must say it's a welcome surprise to see you posting again!

With regards to Joshua and his next move...I've wondered for a while if he's essentially had his best gifts trained out of him in his last half-dozen fights, or if it's simply a case that the guys he's been fighting from 2018 onwards have generally been a better class of opponent to the guys he was beating before then.

I've never really liked or rated Joshua as a classical boxer who bides his time and gets into chess matches. I remember thinking personally that he looked poor against Povetkin for quite a few rounds before pulling out a very impressive finish. The Parker fight before that never came to the boil and his attacking arsenal seemed really trimmed down. I thought he could have closed the show earlier against Pulev, too.

I don't have any qualms with his approach to the Ruiz rematch because that was win at all costs, but I think that fight conned a few people into thinking he was a much more masterful range operator and points accumulator than he actually is. Ruiz a short guy, not great feet, comes square, never varied his tactics all night - of course Joshua was going to control him and shut him out if he adopted that game plan, especially with the shape Ruiz came in.

I don't think retirement will seriously enter his mind but it's asking a lot for him to go back to the drawing board and try to improve at this stage - barring landing that money punch, which in fairness he could do, he'd have to change a hell of a lot to beat Usyk in a return. Payday aside it's not a particularly appetising fight to take straight away. I can't see he or Hearn wanting to go into a Fury fight (assuming Fury actually fights Wilder in October, which I don't think is a given, and then beats him) as the clear B-side or coming off a loss purely as a challenger. But his high profile and stardom means he can't really have more than one, two at the most safe assignments to regain some confidence.

I don't think there's anything for Joshua to be ashamed about in this loss. What Usyk has accomplished in nineteen pro contests is remarkable. Cleaned out one division, stepped up and took three of the four belts in the next in a relatively big upset and has done it in his opponent's backyard pretty much every time.

Interesting comments from Joshua and Hearn. Hearn refused Usyk’s suggestion to have the rematch in Ukraine. Hearn states London or Saudi. Joshua says he’s more than happy to go to Ukraine.

88Chris05 wrote:You're a hard man to please IJK, but I must say it's a welcome surprise to see you posting again!

With regards to Joshua and his next move...I've wondered for a while if he's essentially had his best gifts trained out of him in his last half-dozen fights, or if it's simply a case that the guys he's been fighting from 2018 onwards have generally been a better class of opponent to the guys he was beating before then.

I've never really liked or rated Joshua as a classical boxer who bides his time and gets into chess matches. I remember thinking personally that he looked poor against Povetkin for quite a few rounds before pulling out a very impressive finish. The Parker fight before that never came to the boil and his attacking arsenal seemed really trimmed down. I thought he could have closed the show earlier against Pulev, too.

I don't have any qualms with his approach to the Ruiz rematch because that was win at all costs, but I think that fight conned a few people into thinking he was a much more masterful range operator and points accumulator than he actually is. Ruiz a short guy, not great feet, comes square, never varied his tactics all night - of course Joshua was going to control him and shut him out if he adopted that game plan, especially with the shape Ruiz came in.

I don't think retirement will seriously enter his mind but it's asking a lot for him to go back to the drawing board and try to improve at this stage - barring landing that money punch, which in fairness he could do, he'd have to change a hell of a lot to beat Usyk in a return. Payday aside it's not a particularly appetising fight to take straight away. I can't see he or Hearn wanting to go into a Fury fight (assuming Fury actually fights Wilder in October, which I don't think is a given, and then beats him) as the clear B-side or coming off a loss purely as a challenger. But his high profile and stardom means he can't really have more than one, two at the most safe assignments to regain some confidence.

I don't think there's anything for Joshua to be ashamed about in this loss. What Usyk has accomplished in nineteen pro contests is remarkable. Cleaned out one division, stepped up and took three of the four belts in the next in a relatively big upset and has done it in his opponent's backyard pretty much every time.

I think that summarises it well. The other issue with Joshua is that the boxer doesnt match the marketing that Sky and Matchroom have so desperately wanted. Hes been playing catch up from the beginning with a enormous marketing campaign that has been billing him as an exceptional heavyweight champion boxer when hes closer to an exceptional athlete with good, rather that outstanding boxing skills. Hes never really fit the billing and I dont think hes ever developed quite into the calibre of boxer that they had hoped for. The big tests hes been presented have generally been close run things or upset defeats like tonight and his US debut vs Ruiz. He hasnt really looked like a dominant heavyweight champion against anything other than mediocre opposition. He looked shaky in his fights with aged versions of Povetkin and Klitschko who really belonged to a previous era. Especially when he tried to match boxing skills against them. He had more success relying on athleticism as opposed to technical boxing. His profile and position in the Matchroom business model means that taking a few backwards steps and slowing down to try and move forward again isnt really an option. Theres too much money involved. So I suspect they will keep rolling the dice with him in win or bust mode.

I thought it was a good fight, but its a bit worrying that AJ got his head boxed off in the beginning and end of the fight. He'll rematch and I don't think its an impossibility that he can reverse his fortunes here. Usyk is 33, 34 in a few months, so it's not like this is going to be a long reign. The plodder generally ages better than the athlete, and who knows, there's every chance that with his ultimate goal being achieved, Usyk doesn't come back in the rematch quite as sharp.

As for how Matchroom would feel about the AJ Experiment, if this indeed the peak of it. He's made north of £200m, they've sold 12m pay-per views, had half-a-dozen stadium fights and then used him as a springboard to clock a billion dollar deal with DAZN. He's been great for boxing, boxing has set him and his family up for generations.

Not sure what is going on in Tyson Fury's mind mentally but one feels with all his apparent procrastination in wanting to defend his titles - first Klitschko (which was accepted given his clearly self-destructive behavior following his win in Germany) and then Deontay Wilder (after the second fight win in the US, and apparently avoiding the rematch clause, although there was the global pandemic) - that if Tyson Fury is really so much better than the rest in the division (when he is motivated and switched on) - the landscape in world heavyweight boxing could have been a lot different before Usyk appeared on the scene.

In fairness, I'd had a few beers last night and was frustrated at spending £20 odd quid watching someone not turn up.
That said, I stand by most my comments about Joshua and he needs to decide whether or not he is committed. Boxing ain't a game for half hearted efforts and it looked to me last night that Joshua thought that as long as he came to the ring in shape, it would be enough.
Usyk is nowhere near as good as most people think IMO Chisora and Bredis showed his limitations and that ultimately he should not be a threat at heavyweight.
Joshua could (and should) have won this fight with one punch (the jab), but he wasn't prepared to take centre ring and work behind it. I agree with the assertion that Joshua has had his best asset taken away. He has genuine heavy quality power, but he barely threw a punch in anger last night.
Usyk can't work under educated pressure, Chisora narrowed the space with good footwork and Usyk went into panic mode and often he just got on his bike. Thought he was very fortunate to get the decision and that says it all for me.
Plenty of good fights at heavy to be made right now, I have a feeling Joshua won't take the rematch, so it will be interesting to see who gets a shot at Usyk. Parker, Dubois or Joyce would be good opponents for a first defence, IMO.

I agree with IJK, Usyk put in a pretty lacklustre performance himself last night which puts into perspective how bad AJ and it wasn't down to him being made to look bad, he just did not perform. By the end of the sixth AJ was in control of the fight and Usyk was blowing out his rear but instead pressing home the advantage, he sat off and let him get his second wind, that fight should have ended in the middle rounds. The killer instinct that was once there has been trained out of him, there's no way the AJ of the Wlad fight loses yesterday.

Has Joshua really lost the killer instinct or has he got the fear from the Ruiz loss? Joshua is gun shy. In the middle rounds there was plenty of opportunities to throw the overhead right. Joshua was hesitant. Obviously any fighter can be vulnerable but Joshua aura has diminished since his loss to Ruiz.

Jeff Navarro wrote:Has Joshua really lost the killer instinct or has he got the fear from the Ruiz loss? Joshua is gun shy. In the middle rounds there was plenty of opportunities to throw the overhead right. Joshua was hesitant. Obviously any fighter can be vulnerable but Joshua aura has diminished since his loss to Ruiz.

Gun shy, killer instinct, call it what you want but it amounts to the same thing, an unwillingness to throw the right hand in range. When he was out of range with no risk of being countered he'd throw a wild right and miss.

A guy one belt away from being the first human being to be undisputed in two divisions is not as good as people think he is.

Word.

kingraf wrote:A guy one belt away from being the first human being to be undisputed in two divisions is not as good as people think he is.

Word.

Didn’t Holyfield already achieve this?

Usyk certainly would not be the first two division undisputed champion.

Jeff Navarro wrote:

kingraf wrote:A guy one belt away from being the first human being to be undisputed in two divisions is not as good as people think he is.

Word.

Didn’t Holyfield already achieve this?

Indeed he did.

A guy who lost (IMO as I had Derek winning 115-113) to Derek Chisora or who at very best edged him out, is being touted as the greatest boxer on the planet..........

You can use information to make any argument as pliable as you like, but ultimately we might have differing opinions. Personally, think Usyk is a great mover, he has a great engine, he has natural speed and he can take a shot. But ... he throws a hell of a lot of Poopie that misses, he takes way too many punches (even last night his face was a mess and Joshua was appaling on the night) and he struggles when he's working backwards when the ring has been cut off. He's a great boxer, but the best in the planet? If he is, then boxing is in average shape.

Not sure anyone is proclaiming Usyk as the best in the world, he’s not even the best in the heavyweight division. I thought he edged Chisora, but ‘DelBoy’ showed the blueprint to derail Usyk - body shots.
Whyte could be a tricky opponent for Usyk, especially that left hook to the body.

I thought Usyk was excellent. He outboxed Joshua and at the end looked like he could move up a couple of gears and finish him. Clearly very talented.

He was less impressive against Chisora, but first fight at heavyweight and all that. By the end of the Chisora fight he looked like he had adjusted and was finishing stronger.

At heavyweight, hes fighting giving away large size advantages.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Jeff Navarro wrote:

kingraf wrote:A guy one belt away from being the first human being to be undisputed in two divisions is not as good as people think he is.

Word.

Didn’t Holyfield already achieve this?

Indeed he did.

Double indeed he did - Guess the qualifier is a four belt era one.

Can't agree that Joshua was ever in control at any point, Soul. He was trailing from the off and it was never the kind of fight which suited him, even in the few rounds be won. Usyk was the ring general right from the off. As for Usyk blowing at some point, again I just didn't see it. He's always had tremendous stamina and it was Joshua who was flagging at the end whereas Usyk looked fresh and clearly fancied the stoppage.

iJK, I think that's a harsh take on Usyk myself. I thought his struggles against Chisora were exaggerated by some of his naysayers and that he won clearly, albeit not with a particularly great performance. He had a tough fight against Briedis but if you're fighting the best guys in your weight class consistently in unifications, as the away fighter, then you're going to have those surely. In the aftermath Briedis has rebounded to stand Dorticos on his head and stake a claim of being the best at Cruiser so he was hardly a patsy.

I agree with amateur sensations in recent times from the old Soviet Bloc or Cuba (Rigondeaux, Lomachenko who I've been particularly critical of, Usyk etc.) there has been a tendency in some quarters to fawn over how 'technical' and 'well schooled' they are at the expense of physicality and the dark arts, and landing the harder, damaging shots. But Usyk didn't run, took and controlled the centre of the ring and landing the hurtful shots consistently. He won the fight big so I don't know what else anyone can ask of him before they're impressed. Most (me included) thought that even if he did win, it would be niip and tuck. Turned out it wasn't close at all.

I think it's Joshua who so far has proven to be nowhere near as good as many first thought, not Usyk. I can accept that Joshua might have underperformed last night, but a much bigger factor is that Usyk didn't allow him to be effective.

Firstly - Chisora is by and large a tough out for anyone. He'd be right to say he got the rough end of the Parker decision, and he was up in the second Whyte fight before he got sparked.

Secondly - I've found idea that Chisora actually beat Usyk is a pretty uniquely English concept. I don't know if it's a case of different camera angles or people just really wishing DelBoy got the roll of the dice that one time.

Beating a world champ who has 20lbs on you is impressive. It just is. When Ali went against the big towering George Foreman, he gave up all of four pounds. Great performance from a great fighter. As Lennox Lewis said, mans has won world amateurs, Olympic gold, undisputed at 200, and 3/4 at Heavyweight. If he isn't special, then there just isn't a special fighter in the sport.

I tend to reserve the word special for the very very best so an Ali, Charles, Robinson, Leonard, Pep, Duran etc. It devalues the term when it's applied to someone like Usyk for me.

As for AJ - I think he can become a 3x world champion, but in terms of beating Usyk, I think he's basically in "Anything can happen in Heavyweight boxing" territory. It's that or Usyk turning into a pumpkin in the rematch. It's all good and well to say he should have gone after him, but I'm not sure how AJ does that when the only man who got staggered all night was AJ. He's a good looking guy worth a cartoonish amount of money who has achieved everything you can achieve in the division barring undisputed. Maybe he would be better served calling time on his career.

It seems to me that we might just see the guy who is at the back of the pack slip through and make waves.Joe Joyce.It can't be disputed that he would have landed many more punches than Joshua did last night.
Sure he eats too many punches but he does seem impervious to pain and has an under the radar  decent wallop on him as has been discussed here before.
He  has lost to  Usyk before but I would be interested in his gameplay having been in the ring with him already and  I think Joyce is the kind of character to really fancy himself in another dust-up.Not for him the mental scarring we see in Josh and there is no way he is not going to land big punches.
Am I going too far? Maybe.But as we agree Josh was never all that and the undynamic fighter may just be the more effective one in this case.
Also, am I alone in thinking Usyk didn't perform well against Chisora as a tactic? The facts were staring us in the face.Josh coming  in light meant only one thing-an ego based toe -to-toe game plan.Sadly for him he did underestimate his opponent, probably based on the hoo-ha of weight and size advantage that was rammed down our throat at every opportunity. Huge kudos to Usyk therefore for doing a number on all the pundits and press.
I can't help but think Joshua is effectively finished.I won't want to see him do a Khan ,hanging around talking himself up until his next embarrassing dismantling.Fury (and others) did say that after Ruiz 1, he would never be the same.