2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
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2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
First topic message reminder :
Having just watched that awesome match with France and seeing the SA players, with family, parade around the ground I can't help feeling that our main hope of not being thrashed lies in their complacency. They will go in as massive favourites and rightly so. England will be fighting for their very lives to avoid humiliation and this often brings out the best in teams. I don't think it will be enough, but it might help keep the score to below 45.
Realistically do we have a prayer?
Having just watched that awesome match with France and seeing the SA players, with family, parade around the ground I can't help feeling that our main hope of not being thrashed lies in their complacency. They will go in as massive favourites and rightly so. England will be fighting for their very lives to avoid humiliation and this often brings out the best in teams. I don't think it will be enough, but it might help keep the score to below 45.
Realistically do we have a prayer?
hugehandoff- Posts : 1319
Join date : 2011-06-02
Location : London
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
mountain man wrote:Well I said previously, Youngs will box kick to victory. Malins scores winning try.
You forgot Cole running a blazing path from his own 22 to score under the posts. About the same chance.
WELL-PAST-IT- Posts : 3732
Join date : 2011-06-01
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
No 7&1/2 wrote:Yeah too early to judge Martin though with Ribbans there it seems odd he's not higher up the pecking order.
Especially when Ribbans has looked exactly the player we are looking for when he's actually played.
Geordie- Posts : 28818
Join date : 2011-03-31
Location : Newcastle
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Was really hoping Pollard would come in (BBC):
South Africa: Willemse; Arendse, Kriel, De Allende, Kolbe; Libbok, Reinach; Kitshoff, Mbonambi, Malherbe, Etzebeth, Mostert, Kolisi (capt), Du Toit, Vermeulen.
Replacements: Fourie, Nche, Koch, Snyman, Smith, De Klerk, Pollard, Le Roux.
South Africa: Willemse; Arendse, Kriel, De Allende, Kolbe; Libbok, Reinach; Kitshoff, Mbonambi, Malherbe, Etzebeth, Mostert, Kolisi (capt), Du Toit, Vermeulen.
Replacements: Fourie, Nche, Koch, Snyman, Smith, De Klerk, Pollard, Le Roux.
No 7&1/2- Posts : 31362
Join date : 2012-10-20
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
SA named same starting XV.
mountain man- Posts : 3210
Join date : 2021-03-09
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Interesting, seems Rassie and Nienaber is now distinctly looking at two styles. First half put the points on the board, second half close it out.
Old Man- Posts : 3172
Join date : 2019-08-27
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Not sure SA can be called boring anymore, they play very differently to how they played at the last RWC and Lions tour. Libbok and Willemse are a lot of fun to watch.
Collapse2005- Posts : 7159
Join date : 2017-08-24
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
And Kolbe.
I also admire the brute power of likes of Etzebeth, Du Toit, Kriel etc.
I also admire the brute power of likes of Etzebeth, Du Toit, Kriel etc.
mountain man- Posts : 3210
Join date : 2021-03-09
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Geordie wrote:No 7&1/2 wrote:Yeah too early to judge Martin though with Ribbans there it seems odd he's not higher up the pecking order.
Especially when Ribbans has looked exactly the player we are looking for when he's actually played.
Dunno, he hasn't really impressed when given chances this world cup period. I was hopeful he'd be an impact option after how he showed up in the 6N. Given there's rumours over a long term back issue I wonder if he's having to be managed in training. He's also off to France post world cup and at 28 won't be returning with a view to four years time. He also can't cover the backrow which counts against him in terms of the bench as Martin has replaced Lawes more often than Chessum iirc.
formerly known as Sam- Posts : 21150
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Old Man wrote:Interesting, seems Rassie and Nienaber is now distinctly looking at two styles. First half put the points on the board, second half close it out.
Which is interesting because so far at the world cup no team has conceded fewer points in the first 20 mins than England. Might have something to do with the opposition faced but could make for an interesting second half.
I fully expect SA to blow us away mind.
formerly known as Sam- Posts : 21150
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
formerly known as Sam wrote:Old Man wrote:Interesting, seems Rassie and Nienaber is now distinctly looking at two styles. First half put the points on the board, second half close it out.
Which is interesting because so far at the world cup no team has conceded fewer points in the first 20 mins than England. Might have something to do with the opposition faced but could make for an interesting second half.
I fully expect SA to blow us away mind.
I think it is a red herring to expect SA to blow away england.
Firstly, how many of this squad was at the 2019 RWC?
Secondly, How many beat NZ in the 2019;semifinal?
Players don't just turn into Poopie four years later
England will be very highly motivated to win this match, motivation brings energy, intensity, physicality and pressure
The reasons for that motivation are numerous, payback for 2019, payback for last November, the fact that everyone has written them of etc.
Then you have mental fortitude, it is unlikely that SA will bring the same level of mental strength and energy to this match.
It is going to be a tough matchup.
Old Man- Posts : 3172
Join date : 2019-08-27
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
England XV to face South Africa
15. Freddie Steward (Leicester Tigers, 29 caps)
14. Jonny May (Gloucester Rugby, 77 caps)
13. Joe Marchant (Stade Francais, 24 caps)
12. Manu Tuilagi (Sale Sharks, 57 caps)
11. Elliot Daly (Saracens, 63 caps)
10. Owen Farrell – captain (Saracens, 110 caps)
9. Alex Mitchell (Northampton Saints, 10 caps)
1. Joe Marler (Harlequins, 87 caps)
2. Jamie George (Saracens, 83 caps)
3. Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers, 105 caps)
4. Maro Itoje (Saracens, 74 caps)
5. George Martin (Leicester Tigers, 8 caps)
6. Courtney Lawes – vice-captain (Northampton Saints, 104 caps)
7. Tom Curry (Sale Sharks, 48 caps)
8. Ben Earl (Saracens, 23 caps)
Replacements: 16. Theo Dan (Saracens, 6 caps) 17. Ellis Genge – vice-captain (Bristol Bears, 56 caps) 18. Kyle Sinckler (Bristol Bears, 67 caps) 19. Ollie Chessum (Leicester Tigers, 16 caps) 20. Billy Vunipola (Saracens, 74 caps) 21. Danny Care (Harlequins, 94 caps) 22. George Ford – vice-captain (Sale Sharks, 89 caps) 23. Ollie Lawrence (Bath Rugby, 19 caps)
15. Freddie Steward (Leicester Tigers, 29 caps)
14. Jonny May (Gloucester Rugby, 77 caps)
13. Joe Marchant (Stade Francais, 24 caps)
12. Manu Tuilagi (Sale Sharks, 57 caps)
11. Elliot Daly (Saracens, 63 caps)
10. Owen Farrell – captain (Saracens, 110 caps)
9. Alex Mitchell (Northampton Saints, 10 caps)
1. Joe Marler (Harlequins, 87 caps)
2. Jamie George (Saracens, 83 caps)
3. Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers, 105 caps)
4. Maro Itoje (Saracens, 74 caps)
5. George Martin (Leicester Tigers, 8 caps)
6. Courtney Lawes – vice-captain (Northampton Saints, 104 caps)
7. Tom Curry (Sale Sharks, 48 caps)
8. Ben Earl (Saracens, 23 caps)
Replacements: 16. Theo Dan (Saracens, 6 caps) 17. Ellis Genge – vice-captain (Bristol Bears, 56 caps) 18. Kyle Sinckler (Bristol Bears, 67 caps) 19. Ollie Chessum (Leicester Tigers, 16 caps) 20. Billy Vunipola (Saracens, 74 caps) 21. Danny Care (Harlequins, 94 caps) 22. George Ford – vice-captain (Sale Sharks, 89 caps) 23. Ollie Lawrence (Bath Rugby, 19 caps)
Rugby Fan- Moderator
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Old Man wrote:formerly known as Sam wrote:Old Man wrote:Interesting, seems Rassie and Nienaber is now distinctly looking at two styles. First half put the points on the board, second half close it out.
Which is interesting because so far at the world cup no team has conceded fewer points in the first 20 mins than England. Might have something to do with the opposition faced but could make for an interesting second half.
I fully expect SA to blow us away mind.
I think it is a red herring to expect SA to blow away england.
Firstly, how many of this squad was at the 2019 RWC?
Secondly, How many beat NZ in the 2019;semifinal?
Players don't just turn into Poopie four years later
England will be very highly motivated to win this match, motivation brings energy, intensity, physicality and pressure
The reasons for that motivation are numerous, payback for 2019, payback for last November, the fact that everyone has written them of etc.
Then you have mental fortitude, it is unlikely that SA will bring the same level of mental strength and energy to this match.
It is going to be a tough matchup.
Borthwick.
No 7&1/2- Posts : 31362
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
No Smith and Chessum dropped. Great.
No 7&1/2- Posts : 31362
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Chessum been England best player along with Earl.
No Ludlum again but we get Billy on bench.
Oh well.
No Ludlum again but we get Billy on bench.
Oh well.
mountain man- Posts : 3210
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
I get there is a focus on having a strong set of replacements. I get that Smith was always touch and go. I still don't get Billy over Ludlam, whose boost to defense late on might have made some difference.
May vs Kolbe when May was in his prime would have been OK. These days might be painful
May vs Kolbe when May was in his prime would have been OK. These days might be painful
lostinwales- lostinwales
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Martins starting. Brave call dropping Chessum
carpet baboon- Posts : 3465
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Geordie likes this post
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
No 7&1/2 wrote:Old Man wrote:formerly known as Sam wrote:Old Man wrote:Interesting, seems Rassie and Nienaber is now distinctly looking at two styles. First half put the points on the board, second half close it out.
Which is interesting because so far at the world cup no team has conceded fewer points in the first 20 mins than England. Might have something to do with the opposition faced but could make for an interesting second half.
I fully expect SA to blow us away mind.
I think it is a red herring to expect SA to blow away england.
Firstly, how many of this squad was at the 2019 RWC?
Secondly, How many beat NZ in the 2019;semifinal?
Players don't just turn into Poopie four years later
England will be very highly motivated to win this match, motivation brings energy, intensity, physicality and pressure
The reasons for that motivation are numerous, payback for 2019, payback for last November, the fact that everyone has written them of etc.
Then you have mental fortitude, it is unlikely that SA will bring the same level of mental strength and energy to this match.
It is going to be a tough matchup.
Borthwick.
There were more discourse in the English changing rooms in 2007, and England in spite of their coach turned around a 36-0 defeat into a very close final.
Old Man- Posts : 3172
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Chessum a strange call. I have not been convinced by Martin. But some good fire power on the bench to combat the bomb squad. I expect Genge and Sinckler to play almost the full 2nd half. In reality we probably need to play with a lot of pace to move the big Saffers around, but I have not seen too much of that in our performances lately. Therefore, Genge and Sincks could play a influential role.
hugehandoff- Posts : 1319
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alfie likes this post
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Still absolutely no idea why Billy is in the 23. He has shown nothing of his old form at all in this tournament (or any warm up games) and yet ludlam who has been head and shoulders above him in every aspect of the game gets to watch from the stands.
carpet baboon- Posts : 3465
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Maro Itoje . Still remember him kneeling heavily on the neck of a player in the last Lions series
protea438- Posts : 167
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
protea438 wrote:Maro Itoje . Still remember him kneeling heavily on the neck of a player in the last Lions series
lol.
No 7&1/2- Posts : 31362
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
We could have rolled the dice, but instead it's conservatism and dullness.
I don't think it's any wonder that the main feeling a lot of English fans will have is apathy.
This is depressing.
I don't think it's any wonder that the main feeling a lot of English fans will have is apathy.
This is depressing.
Mr Bounce- Posts : 3476
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
I had thought England might attempt to target the SA lineout and remove their maul threat but Martin must offer a power differential over Chessum in the scrums, although we should be trying to avoid these anyway. Martin has thus far looked a bit lost in open play. It does gives a pretty robust and mobile bench though which will be needed against Ox Niche, Kagga Smith et al, and will clearly need a backs to the wall performance from England.
I think I counted ten players from England's last RWC final, so there is no shortage of experience and they will need to use it all!
I think I counted ten players from England's last RWC final, so there is no shortage of experience and they will need to use it all!
Last edited by Recwatcher16 on Thu Oct 19, 2023 12:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
Recwatcher16- Posts : 795
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Mr Bounce wrote:We could have rolled the dice, but instead it's conservatism and dullness.
I don't think it's any wonder that the main feeling a lot of English fans will have is apathy.
This is depressing.
Is a World Cup semi final against the current World Champions the time to 'role the dice' and pick players not deemed good enough to be first choices? That's ok in fantasy rugby, but in the real world you go with your best team and hope the tactics/performance are good enough to win the game. Picking players on a wing and a prayer seems to be a bit of negative approach.
nlpnlp- Posts : 507
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
nlpnlp wrote:Mr Bounce wrote:We could have rolled the dice, but instead it's conservatism and dullness.
I don't think it's any wonder that the main feeling a lot of English fans will have is apathy.
This is depressing.
Is a World Cup semi final against the current World Champions the time to 'role the dice' and pick players not deemed good enough to be first choices? That's ok in fantasy rugby, but in the real world you go with your best team and hope the tactics/performance are good enough to win the game. Picking players on a wing and a prayer seems to be a bit of negative approach.
This is our best team and coaches...
This is depressing.
No 7&1/2- Posts : 31362
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
No 7&1/2 wrote:nlpnlp wrote:Mr Bounce wrote:We could have rolled the dice, but instead it's conservatism and dullness.
I don't think it's any wonder that the main feeling a lot of English fans will have is apathy.
This is depressing.
Is a World Cup semi final against the current World Champions the time to 'role the dice' and pick players not deemed good enough to be first choices? That's ok in fantasy rugby, but in the real world you go with your best team and hope the tactics/performance are good enough to win the game. Picking players on a wing and a prayer seems to be a bit of negative approach.
This is our best team and coaches...
This is depressing.
Not really. There's a clear tactic here. The Boks have picked their team for another first half onslaught and loaded the bench with options to slow the opposition and play for territory.
England has gone for the reverse. Marler adds to the scrum and Martin is a work horse in defence. Early in the second half England have the opportunity to bring on their most mobile tight five forwards at a time the Boks want to slow the pace. England have generally been good at keeping teams out in the first half.
Whilst in theory it would be nice to have a few more mavericks in the side Smith took a battering last weekend and probably needs a rest. Arundell looked meh in a tactical kicking game plan so there's not much point putting him in here considering how the Boks targeted the young French winger last weekend.
England are going to struggle to hold on but we knew that already.
formerly known as Sam- Posts : 21150
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Geordie, alfie and stub like this post
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
hugehandoff wrote:Chessum a strange call. I have not been convinced by Martin.
Martin adds more weight to the scrum and is a bigger tackler both in number and hit. Big ask for him to go toe to toe with those SA monsters mind.
formerly known as Sam- Posts : 21150
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
formerly known as Sam wrote:No 7&1/2 wrote:nlpnlp wrote:Mr Bounce wrote:We could have rolled the dice, but instead it's conservatism and dullness.
I don't think it's any wonder that the main feeling a lot of English fans will have is apathy.
This is depressing.
Is a World Cup semi final against the current World Champions the time to 'role the dice' and pick players not deemed good enough to be first choices? That's ok in fantasy rugby, but in the real world you go with your best team and hope the tactics/performance are good enough to win the game. Picking players on a wing and a prayer seems to be a bit of negative approach.
This is our best team and coaches...
This is depressing.
Not really. There's a clear tactic here. The Boks have picked their team for another first half onslaught and loaded the bench with options to slow the opposition and play for territory.
England has gone for the reverse. Marler adds to the scrum and Martin is a work horse in defence. Early in the second half England have the opportunity to bring on their most mobile tight five forwards at a time the Boks want to slow the pace. England have generally been good at keeping teams out in the first half.
Whilst in theory it would be nice to have a few more mavericks in the side Smith took a battering last weekend and probably needs a rest. Arundell looked meh in a tactical kicking game plan so there's not much point putting him in here considering how the Boks targeted the young French winger last weekend.
England are going to struggle to hold on but we knew that already.
I know there are clear tactics. Not sure that's less depressing!
No 7&1/2- Posts : 31362
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Interesting Chessum and Martin swapping over.
Martin will need to bring out a performance...
I wonder if Ludlum is injured. I would definitely have him over Billy V.
Martin will need to bring out a performance...
I wonder if Ludlum is injured. I would definitely have him over Billy V.
Geordie- Posts : 28818
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
formerly known as Sam wrote:hugehandoff wrote:Chessum a strange call. I have not been convinced by Martin.
Martin adds more weight to the scrum and is a bigger tackler both in number and hit. Big ask for him to go toe to toe with those SA monsters mind.
But huge experience for him...one he should learn from and help him developing at this level...
Geordie- Posts : 28818
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formerly known as Sam and stub like this post
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Interesting in 2019 they took Kruis out...this year they have put his type of player in....
Geordie- Posts : 28818
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
formerly known as Sam wrote:hugehandoff wrote:Chessum a strange call. I have not been convinced by Martin.
Martin adds more weight to the scrum and is a bigger tackler both in number and hit. Big ask for him to go toe to toe with those SA monsters mind.
The official stats have Chessum and Martin both at 118kg. Is Martin actually heavier, or does he use his weight more effectively in the scrum?
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Why does everyone always say the SA pack are the biggest and monsters etc?
They are physical not because they are necessarily the biggest, its just an attitude of never back down.
They are physical not because they are necessarily the biggest, its just an attitude of never back down.
Old Man- Posts : 3172
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Russ Petty says this will be the 33rd Test that Marler and Cole start together but only the 2nd that Marler, George and Cole all start together.
The other 31 games break down as 20 with Hartley, 10 with Tom Youngs, and 1 with LCD.
The other 31 games break down as 20 with Hartley, 10 with Tom Youngs, and 1 with LCD.
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Old Man wrote:Why does everyone always say the SA pack are the biggest and monsters etc?
They are physical not because they are necessarily the biggest, its just an attitude of never back down.
Agreed, England's tight 5's combined weight is 580kg & the Springbok's tight 5 weigh 572kg.
Oakdene- Posts : 1170
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
nlpnlp wrote:Mr Bounce wrote:We could have rolled the dice, but instead it's conservatism and dullness.
I don't think it's any wonder that the main feeling a lot of English fans will have is apathy.
This is depressing.
Is a World Cup semi final against the current World Champions the time to 'role the dice' and pick players not deemed good enough to be first choices? That's ok in fantasy rugby, but in the real world you go with your best team and hope the tactics/performance are good enough to win the game. Picking players on a wing and a prayer seems to be a bit of negative approach.
Some of the team listed are some way past their best. Jonny May is a shadow of his former self - both he and Daly have provided next to nothing in attack. I am not saying that we should throw caution to the wind and start Arundell but our attacking players are pretty poor by comparison to the opposition.
In a game that we are expected to lose, where are the game changers? There are none. What shall we do? Tackle them to exhaustion? We're not winning this on penalties.
Mr Bounce- Posts : 3476
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Mr Bounce wrote:nlpnlp wrote:Mr Bounce wrote:We could have rolled the dice, but instead it's conservatism and dullness.
I don't think it's any wonder that the main feeling a lot of English fans will have is apathy.
This is depressing.
Is a World Cup semi final against the current World Champions the time to 'role the dice' and pick players not deemed good enough to be first choices? That's ok in fantasy rugby, but in the real world you go with your best team and hope the tactics/performance are good enough to win the game. Picking players on a wing and a prayer seems to be a bit of negative approach.
Some of the team listed are some way past their best. Jonny May is a shadow of his former self - both he and Daly have provided next to nothing in attack. I am not saying that we should throw caution to the wind and start Arundell but our attacking players are pretty poor by comparison to the opposition.
In a game that we are expected to lose, where are the game changers? There are none. What shall we do? Tackle them to exhaustion? We're not winning this on penalties.
I hate to bleat on but our wingers aren't there to do anything but chase kicks and defend.
No 7&1/2- Posts : 31362
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
I think in 2019 the sheer bulk thing was more relevant. The 6-2 was newer and this Boks side with all forwards fit are perfect for it.Oakdene wrote:Old Man wrote:Why does everyone always say the SA pack are the biggest and monsters etc?
They are physical not because they are necessarily the biggest, its just an attitude of never back down.
Agreed, England's tight 5's combined weight is 580kg & the Springbok's tight 5 weigh 572kg.
1.Mtwarira 2.Mbonambi 3.Malherbe 4.Etzebeth 5.Lood 6.Kolisi 7.PSdT 8.Vermuelen
16.Marx 17.Kitshoff 18.Koch 19.Snyman 20.Mostert 21.Louw
The smallest of those locks is Mostert and he isn't small. Even someone like Francois Louw on the bench is a pretty chunky openside.
All 6'10" of Lood being injured takes significant bulk away. Marx being injured blunts the physicality too of course. He's the best hooker in the game for my money, massive and uses it well.
Several of the newer additions for 2023 are smaller but terrific players though as Bilt alludes to. Ox is small for a modern pop. Kwagga is small for a back row these days but insanely aggressive. Arendse is another tiny but brilliant winger. As said, they are relentlessly aggressive in contact and their fitness is terrific.
king_carlos- Posts : 12669
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Mr Bounce wrote:Some of the team listed are some way past their best. Jonny May is a shadow of his former self - both he and Daly have provided next to nothing in attack. I am not saying that we should throw caution to the wind and start Arundell but our attacking players are pretty poor by comparison to the opposition.
In a game that we are expected to lose, where are the game changers? There are none. What shall we do? Tackle them to exhaustion? We're not winning this on penalties.
Perhaps. Stats man Ross Hamilton said South Africa score a high proportion of tries from first phase, and most scores come from a low number of phases. If England can defend as well as they have been at times, then we'll force the Boks to look for other ways to score. Of course, they can almost certainly do that but any time you make the opposition think again, is a small win.
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Yep. They've basically started their best defensive forwards to my eye. Marler is a very good tackler around the fringes. High tackle completion has always been one of Cole's strengths. Martin can hit like a train in the tackle. Lawes and Itoje have always had big work rates. Curry and Earl have led England's line speed.Rugby Fan wrote:Mr Bounce wrote:Some of the team listed are some way past their best. Jonny May is a shadow of his former self - both he and Daly have provided next to nothing in attack. I am not saying that we should throw caution to the wind and start Arundell but our attacking players are pretty poor by comparison to the opposition.
In a game that we are expected to lose, where are the game changers? There are none. What shall we do? Tackle them to exhaustion? We're not winning this on penalties.
Perhaps. Stats man Ross Hamilton said South Africa score a high proportion of tries from first phase, and most scores come from a low number of phases. If England can defend as well as they have been at times, then we'll force the Boks to look for other ways to score. Of course, they can almost certainly do that but any time you make the opposition think again, is a small win.
Similar to you, RF, I'm not predicting it will work. This Boks team are a far better side. I do think it's got an incomparably better chance of working than, "throwing caution to the wind", though.
I'm expecting them to try to play as much of the game as possible in the opposition half and then defend like maniacs. Aiming for one of those games where you might see one side make twice as many tackles as the other. It won't be popular with the usual suspects. In the same position it's what I'd do.
Realistically, I'm expecting this Boks side to have far too much when they get a sniff out wide. Libbok and Willemse are very good playmakers, whilst Kolbe and KSA are lightning. It's a brilliantly rounded SA side now.
One surprising area from the QF with France was seeing the Boks get driven back in a couple of mauls. I do think that aspect has suffered a touch without Lood. In the past if teams kicked long to the Boks they would just stick it into touch and back the lineout. I'm not sure it's quite the same unstoppable strength currently. Which is a glimmer of light if England are kicking long and regularly. Which they almost certainly will.
king_carlos- Posts : 12669
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alfie and No 7&1/2 like this post
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
I'd post my thoughts, but king_carlos clearly has similar thoughts and beat me to it. Add in an attempted drop goal if/when England get a turnover in the SA half and that about sums it up. You can see what England are trying to do, and it probably gives the best odds of a surprise win - even if those odds are still very small. I fully expect England defence to flood the half backs and midfield and prevent the ball even getting to Kolbe and Arendse, but that would then leave us even more exposed if/when they do get it.
Edit: it was also noted after the South Africa v France game that O'Keeffe was giving an awful lot of leeway for slowing down at the rucks. So maybe we can expect Curry and co. working on that as well...
Edit: it was also noted after the South Africa v France game that O'Keeffe was giving an awful lot of leeway for slowing down at the rucks. So maybe we can expect Curry and co. working on that as well...
Last edited by Big on Thu Oct 19, 2023 4:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
Big- Posts : 815
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lostinwales likes this post
Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
king_carlos wrote:Yep. They've basically started their best defensive forwards to my eye. Marler is a very good tackler around the fringes. High tackle completion has always been one of Cole's strengths. Martin can hit like a train in the tackle. Lawes and Itoje have always had big work rates. Curry and Earl have led England's line speed.Rugby Fan wrote:Mr Bounce wrote:Some of the team listed are some way past their best. Jonny May is a shadow of his former self - both he and Daly have provided next to nothing in attack. I am not saying that we should throw caution to the wind and start Arundell but our attacking players are pretty poor by comparison to the opposition.
In a game that we are expected to lose, where are the game changers? There are none. What shall we do? Tackle them to exhaustion? We're not winning this on penalties.
Perhaps. Stats man Ross Hamilton said South Africa score a high proportion of tries from first phase, and most scores come from a low number of phases. If England can defend as well as they have been at times, then we'll force the Boks to look for other ways to score. Of course, they can almost certainly do that but any time you make the opposition think again, is a small win.
Similar to you, RF, I'm not predicting it will work. This Boks team are a far better side. I do think it's got an incomparably better chance of working than, "throwing caution to the wind", though.
I'm expecting them to try to play as much of the game as possible in the opposition half and then defend like maniacs. Aiming for one of those games where you might see one side make twice as many tackles as the other. It won't be popular with the usual suspects. In the same position it's what I'd do.
Realistically, I'm expecting this Boks side to have far too much when they get a sniff out wide. Libbok and Willemse are very good playmakers, whilst Kolbe and KSA are lightning. It's a brilliantly rounded SA side now.
One surprising area from the QF with France was seeing the Boks get driven back in a couple of mauls. I do think that aspect has suffered a touch without Lood. In the past if teams kicked long to the Boks they would just stick it into touch and back the lineout. I'm not sure it's quite the same unstoppable strength currently. Which is a glimmer of light if England are kicking long and regularly. Which they almost certainly will.
The French played very smart in avoiding giving SA line outs and scrums. They too must have seen the stat where most of our scores come from set piece/first phase, so they didn't want to play us of set piece. They didn't kick out often, and we had very few scrums.
Avoiding the SA scrum helps to reduce muscle fatigue in the pack.
I am sure the English coaching team will have spotted that.
However, if you look at how the boks adapted, they decided to kick shorter and put pressure on the recievers. Which is how they scored two tries. So if they don't get set pieces, they will go to the kicking game as they won't try to build 35 phase plays.
They are well aware of statistics showing the more phases you play the less likely you are to score.
They will also try to put scoreboard pressure on England via threes, be it penalties or dropgoals.
The first French maul ccaught them completely of guard, Mostert over reached and lost balance, effectively falking backwards and never got to engage the maul, french also packed two backs into that maul, they got immediate momentum and it was over.
Old Man- Posts : 3172
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
The game plan was clearly to target Bielle-Biarrey and they did it with the usual tactical flair of Rassie and Nienaber. Having that huge gap between Libbok hanging the bomb and about 5 chasers on the right-hand touchline was typical of how they think. Using a common tactic and taking it to an extreme.
The set move to manufacture Etzebeth's try was another. Using their forwards in two distinct pods they hit it up twice, one from each pod. Then Vermuelen's pod set the dummy maul which drew in the French forwards whilst Etzebeth hung in behind the 9 having been on the blindside whilst Vermuelen's pod set that maul on the openside. Once the forwards were all sucked in and Etzebeth had a clear line to Jalibert he swept round and carried France's weakest tackler over the line with him.
I'm expecting England to just try to take points from any entry to the SA 22. Be that pens or drop goals.
The set move to manufacture Etzebeth's try was another. Using their forwards in two distinct pods they hit it up twice, one from each pod. Then Vermuelen's pod set the dummy maul which drew in the French forwards whilst Etzebeth hung in behind the 9 having been on the blindside whilst Vermuelen's pod set that maul on the openside. Once the forwards were all sucked in and Etzebeth had a clear line to Jalibert he swept round and carried France's weakest tackler over the line with him.
I'm expecting England to just try to take points from any entry to the SA 22. Be that pens or drop goals.
king_carlos- Posts : 12669
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Stats from Opta on the average height and weight during the 2023 Rugby Championship:Old Man wrote:Why does everyone always say the SA pack are the biggest and monsters etc?
They are physical not because they are necessarily the biggest, its just an attitude of never back down.
4 Argentina – 112.2 kgs/247.35 lbs
3 New Zealand – 112.9 kgs/248.9 lbs
2 South Africa – 115.9 kgs/255.5 lbs
1 Australia – 117.1 kgs/258.16 lbs
4 Argentina – 189.6cm/6ft 2.65 inches
3 South Africa – 190.9cm/6ft 3.15 inches
2 Australia – 191.1cm/6ft 3.24 inches
1 New Zealand – 192.4cm/6ft 3.75 inches
George Carlin- Admin
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
George Carlin wrote:Stats from Opta on the average height and weight during the 2023 Rugby Championship:Old Man wrote:Why does everyone always say the SA pack are the biggest and monsters etc?
They are physical not because they are necessarily the biggest, its just an attitude of never back down.
4 Argentina – 112.2 kgs/247.35 lbs
3 New Zealand – 112.9 kgs/248.9 lbs
2 South Africa – 115.9 kgs/255.5 lbs
1 Australia – 117.1 kgs/258.16 lbs
4 Argentina – 189.6cm/6ft 2.65 inches
3 South Africa – 190.9cm/6ft 3.15 inches
2 Australia – 191.1cm/6ft 3.24 inches
1 New Zealand – 192.4cm/6ft 3.75 inches
Not really out of the ordinary to be honest. If we give a four point weighting to one, 3 point to 2nd, etc.
Then
Australia 7 points
New Zealand and SA 6 points
Argentina 2 points.
What about the other teams? Wales, Ireland, France and England?
All this confirms is the Aussies are powder puffs
Old Man- Posts : 3172
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
I'm honestly surprised that the Boks average height is that high.
Mbonambi 5'9"
Ox 5'8"
Nyakane 5'10"
Kolbe 5'7"
Arendse 5'9"
There are plenty of shorter chaps in the squad. Especially front row and wing when comparing to opposition in the same position. Faf is also listed at 5'8" for instance but that's not unusual for a SH.
Mbonambi 5'9"
Ox 5'8"
Nyakane 5'10"
Kolbe 5'7"
Arendse 5'9"
There are plenty of shorter chaps in the squad. Especially front row and wing when comparing to opposition in the same position. Faf is also listed at 5'8" for instance but that's not unusual for a SH.
king_carlos- Posts : 12669
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Not a lot of playmakers in this England side. Can't see England beating the point spread without playmakers.
doctor_grey- Posts : 12251
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
I guess nobody expects England to win this - and obviously SA start strong favourites. But the WC has in the past seen plenty of surprise results at the knock out stage so I imagine England will be going in believing they can produce another. An attitude that gives them at least a chance, I think.
As to selection : to my admittedly in-expert eye , the changes make sense. Quite like Smith but against SA I reckon playing him at 15 would have invited disaster. Steward surely had to come back in. And shuffling the forwards may have a lot to do with being able to counter the SA mass replacements in the second half - the key to their victory over France , was it not ? (I'd even idly wondered if England might have considered a 6-2 bench for this one : but with the need for Ford and Care in reserve it would be too risky not to have another flexible back option ready)
Anyway no use fantasising about the magical wonder players who aren't here : this is what they have and I just hope they can give us a contest worth watching...
As to selection : to my admittedly in-expert eye , the changes make sense. Quite like Smith but against SA I reckon playing him at 15 would have invited disaster. Steward surely had to come back in. And shuffling the forwards may have a lot to do with being able to counter the SA mass replacements in the second half - the key to their victory over France , was it not ? (I'd even idly wondered if England might have considered a 6-2 bench for this one : but with the need for Ford and Care in reserve it would be too risky not to have another flexible back option ready)
Anyway no use fantasising about the magical wonder players who aren't here : this is what they have and I just hope they can give us a contest worth watching...
alfie- Posts : 21624
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
Nothing against England, my hope is the Boks get a comfortable win, purely because if England gives them a tough match I don't see them getting up mentally for another one vs NZ.
That of course, if we win.
That of course, if we win.
Old Man- Posts : 3172
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Re: 2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa
If anyone interested, Red Roses playing Australia this morning kick off 0700 live on ITVx.
It's a match we can be hopeful of an England win...
It's a match we can be hopeful of an England win...
mountain man- Posts : 3210
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