How competitive do you think this RWC is going to be?

Reading through a few posts on prospects, hopes and dreams of posters from different nationalities there is a lot of respect for the performance, or potential performance of other nations, particularly those ranked in the top 15 of the IRB rankings.

Do you think that the top 15 is more closely matched than at previous world cups?

Do you think that you could predict the semi finals with accuracy? Or do you think that there will be a few surprises?

If I was a betting man I'd say there won't be to many suprises. I'd say the routes to the semi's will go in line with the current rankings meaning they will be Eng v Aus and SA v NZ. Who knows though...

"I'd say the routes to the semi's will go in line with the current rankings meaning they will be Eng v Aus and SA v NZ. Who knows though..."

Isnt Ireland ranked 4th?

Boyne wrote:Isnt Ireland ranked 4th?

Yep. there's about 0.04 between Ireland and England.

However, I do agree about Eng v Aus and NZ v SA semis. Makes sense.

.....Now I was never that good at Maths in school, but in my book that still makes Ireland ranked above England, n'est pas?

Yep, true enough Boyne, you're currently ahead

Yes, but Ireland won't play England so that's academic. If all the games are won by the highest ranked team then the semis will be as stated.

At least I think that's what Toadfish meant.

But the route favours England as Ireland would have to play at least one higher ranked team. Hence go with rankings...

That is what I mean't screamingaddabs, thanks.

You are all correct. What Ive seen of England this year, they are capable of a final. Capable.

I think you guys are overlooking France. At the moment, if the 2 met, I would say its about 50-50.

May I add that I realy really rate France as a group of individuals and I think man for man they are 3rd if not 2nd in the world.

Rugbys a team game but at the same time I can see them gelling as a team sometime or another.

Pool A

New Zealand 1st
France 6th
Japan 13th
Tonga 14th
Canada 16th


Pool B

England 5th
Argentina 8th
Scotland 9th
Georgia 15th
Romania 18th


Pool C

Australia* 2nd
Ireland 4th
Italy 11th
United States 17th
Russia 19th


Pool D

South Africa* 3rd
Wales 7th
Samoa 10th
Fiji 12th
Namibia 20th

So by all the logic in here, people don't believe that this tournament will be competitive?

and slight problem there aswell nz arent on the same side as S.A

the quarters will most likely be

Aus v Wales
Ireland V SA

then
Eng V France
Scotland/ Arg V NZ

However wales v ireland is another possibility as is S.A v Aus, Eng v NZ and so on

so therefore most likely semis are in my mind Aus V SA and NZ v France

however anything can happen, Ireland can beat Aus, S.A or Wales, and the same for all of those and england can beat france, and scotland can beat england.

Welshy- summed up well.

The top potential "upsets" by likelyhood

- Blacks lose to France in the pool - that would upset everything.
- England get knocked out at the pool stages or fail to get 1st place
- Wales get knocked out in the pool
- Ireland beat Oz in the pool

The only 50-50 call I can see, if all goes to plan is England vs France.

Boyne wrote:Welshy- summed up well.

The top potential "upsets" by likelyhood

- Blacks lose to France in the pool - that would upset everything.
- England get knocked out at the pool stages or fail to get 1st place
- Wales get knocked out in the pool
- Ireland beat Oz in the pool

The only 50-50 call I can see, if all goes to plan is England vs France.

I dont think Wales getting knocked out in the pool stages is an upset. Certainly not as big an upset as the others you mentioned. A bigger upset would be SA not winning the pool, or should it go horribly wrong for them, SA not progressing out of the pool. Remember how well Fiji played against SA at the last world cup...!

Welshy,

Unless SA play Aus in the quarters, the next stage they'll come up against them is the final.

welshy824 wrote:and slight problem there aswell nz arent on the same side as S.A

the quarters will most likely be

Aus v Wales
Ireland V SA

then
Eng V France
Scotland/ Arg V NZ

However wales v ireland is another possibility as is S.A v Aus, Eng v NZ and so on

so therefore most likely semis are in my mind Aus V SA and NZ v France

however anything can happen, Ireland can beat Aus, S.A or Wales, and the same for all of those and england can beat france, and scotland can beat england.

Unless I'm being a bit simple (completely possible) if SA win group D they will be in QF3 and if NZ win group A they will be in QF4. Semi Final 2 will then be the winner of QF3 vs QF4?

Boyne wrote:Blacks lose to France in the pool - that would upset everything.

There would be a few moments of "wow, that must be good for the tournament" before fans of other sides look back at the draw and think, "shoite, that puts a spanner in...".

"Arrogant" England coast the group and face an angry All Blacks in the 1/4s.

I still expect Ireland to beat Oz, don't ask me why I just have a feeling.

(Ok if you did ask me i'd point to how Oz couldn't handle the pressure and hard running from England and our young pack of forwards (youngish) i'd then follow that up with Ireland have a far better backrow then Eng do, they have a better centre pairing and very solid front 5, if Sexton is on form then they'll cause trouble all over the pitch and i just can't see Australia coping, especially with their frankly poor captain Elsom (great player poor captain) it might be close but i think Ireland will sneak it. Or they might not)

Yappysnap- I wish I had your confidence. But we'll see....

So all in all, apart from one of the semi finals and the final, I can see there being......7 "competitive" games..

Ireland vs Oz
Fiji / Samoa vs Wales (ok thats 2)
Ireland vs Italy (kidding yourself if you dont think it'll be competitive)
England vs Argie / Scotland
Scotland vs Argie

QF1
WINNER OF C PLAYS RUNNER UP OF D

QF2
WINNER OF B PLAYS RUNNER UP OF A

QF 3
WINNER OF D PLAYS RUNNER UP OF C

QF4
WINNER OF A PLAYS RUNNER UP OF B

THEN

SF1
WINNER OF 1 PLAYS 2

AND

SF2
WINNER OF 3 PLAYS 4

South Africa v Wales
New Zealand v France
Italy v USA?
Scotland v Georgia?
Georgia v Romania
Canada v Tonga/Japan
Tonga v Japan
Samoa v Fiji
USA v Russia

MBTGOG wrote:South Africa v Wales
New Zealand v France
Italy v USA?
Scotland v Georgia?
Georgia v Romania
Canada v Tonga/Japan
Tonga v Japan
Samoa v Fiji
USA v Russia

I think there are some very close ones

Pool A
France vs Tonga
Japan vs Canada

Pool B
Argies vs Scots
Eng vs Scots
Georgia vs Romania


Pool C
Oz vs Ireland
Ireland vs Italy
Italy vs USA
USA vs Russia

Pool D
Anything with Fiji, Samoa, Wales or SA will be close.

"the quarters will most likely be

Aus v Wales
Ireland V SA "

Is that if SA to top the pool with Wales 2nd and Aus top their pool with Ireland 2nd?

nottins_jones wrote:"the quarters will most likely be

Aus v Wales
Ireland V SA "

Is that if SA to top the pool with Wales 2nd and Aus top their pool with Ireland 2nd?

that looks like it

No doubt our pool is tough for us... but if the unliklihood of us vanquishing SA then going on to do the same to Samoa n Fiji we'd have an easier quarter final. Not disrespecting Ireland there but it would be easier than playing Aus in my opinion. Beat Ireland then make it to the semi's; how's that for an upset?

I personally think the All Blacks are the clear favourites, but behind them there is intense competition with any of Aus, SA, England, France and Ireland in contention, and behind that, Argentina, Wales and Scotland.

I think this WC will be far more competitive and exciting than the last one. Whilst the exploits of Fiji and Argentina were great last time round, it really enabled SA to cruise through to the final.

I don't think that'll happen this time round. I think the winning side will be far better challenged.

I think one of the main differences is that the teams that are in the lower five of the top ten are a lot closer. Scotland have beaten all but the All Blacks, (a re-ocurring statement), Wales are no push overs and Argentina can be a dogged force for any side to fight.

New Zealand are clear favourites. But even so, I think there are three teams that could knock them out in a one off match. Australia, South Africa and France.

Behind New Zealand, any of Australia, South Africa, France, England, Ireland could beat each other. I think Wales could take out any of their Six Nations rivals but haven't looked good enough to knock out Australia or South Africa. Although on paper their team should compete with anyone.

Italy came very close to beating Ireland in Rome and Ireland have often struggled to beat them by large score. But I doubt Italy will beat Ireland on neutral territory. Scotland are capable of beating almost anyone if they defend well and Parks kicks his points. They've proved it in the last few years. I haven't seen much of Argentina and they probably haven't been able to show their best since the last World Cup. They're always a handful at the very least.

There's plenty of scope for upsets. I'd be very surprised to see everything go according to the world rankings. In any case the rankings will be different come World Cup time after the Tri-Nations and the northern warm up matches.

I can't see Ireland beating Australia in the group match. I'd be more hopeful in a quarter final against South Africa to be honest.

To win a World Cup you have to be consistent and none of the 6 Nations sides are consistent game to game.
Ireland and Wales are decent sides but both are prone to off days and important areas of their game plan tend to go to the dogs regularly. Both teams will lose to Australia and South Africa respectively.
Sadly neither team is good at putting teams away when their dominant and don't turn dominance into points, that will be their undoing.

The spread of the 5 teams below the top 3 in the IRB ratings is so close about a total of 1.5 points.
Suggests that all of these are capable of beating each other,some have recent wins over one or more of the top 3.
Argentina are more than capable of winning there group,Scotland on there day could turn over both Argentina and England.
So it is presumptious to be talking England will meet Australia in a Semi-Final.
France could win there group,Wales could beat SA then lose to Fiji and Samoa.Ireland could beat Australia in the pool stage then go out at semis stage.
Permutations are endless,IF NZ get out of there group they would`nt meet again to the final.If both sides reached there.